10/28-30, 08; 3,000 LV 2%
Obama 51, McCain 47
Yeah baby yeah
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:44 AM
Disappointing - Was hoping for a little movement from the infomercial. Still over 50, though. That's the big news here.
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:45 AM
Interesting that the first day after the Obama informercial shows a one point bump for McCain. The number of undecideds is really going down. My estimate is that the final difference between the candidates on Monday will be 51-48 for Obama.
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:46 AM
Well the people in rural areas don't know what socialism means - they're the late breakers for McCain.
Don't sweat it. Even if he's only ahead by 3 (rasmussen is right-leaning, no cellphones, doesn't account for high black turnout) each percentage point is about 3 million people.
Plus ras has a self-interest in giving republicans hope.
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:50 AM
McCain had a really big day Tuesday that will roll off tomorrow. That will give a better indication of the state of the race.
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:51 AM
Tuesday Obama had very bad polling, so tomorrow, when the day comes off, he will get one or two point more.
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:52 AM
This poll is how the country will end in the vote! Why the gloom? It is a victory for Obama!
Most pollsters - the legit math gurus - have said it will be 51-52% for Obama and 47-48% for McCain.
Again, why the gloom?
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:53 AM
Over 50 in Ras is still good.
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:55 AM
In a video analysis on his site, Rasmussen said that the race really isn't tightening, that the important number to focus on is Obama's support, which hasn't dropped. He noted that Obama has been at or above 50 for 36 straight days and shows no sign of losing support. He concluded by saying that unless Obama drops below 50 and stays there, it's going to be a long night for McCain on November 4.
51-47 in Ras this late in the game is great. And the full effect of the informercial won't be felt until Sunday - the numbers today still include two days of pre-infomercial polling. Ras actually has a poll about the informercial - I think it's subscriber only right now. 54% said it would make them more likely to vote for Obama - but a huge percentage of that comes from Dems. Republicans hated it, of course, but not as much as you'd think. Among indies, 36% said it would make them more likely to vote Obama, 33% said less likely, and 29% said no difference. So, if this Ras poll is accurate, it probably won't swing many voters in Obama's direction but it didn't hurt and definitely fired up his base, not a bad thing since there is the risk of them becoming complacent.
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:56 AM
I have a question for the professional pollsters: has a poll ever been conducted that asked: "Who do you think will win the election?" Not "Who are you voting for?" It occurs to me that this is essentially what the prediction markets provide, albeit with money on the line. I think this would be a really interesting data set, and would provide some insight into voter confidence.
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:59 AM
yes, they do ... and in the past month Obama has been leading in that question by about 2-1.
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:00 AM
No worries for Obama. You will be very pleased with tomorrow's numbers. This week has been influenced by 2 very good McCain days, the last of which rolls off tommorrow.
How can one deny the race is tightening? A four point spread is smaller than a 7 point spread.
Oh well, if the race is already won, no need to vote, and there are lots of other things to do while the weather is still nice.
Oh wait, the early blizzards are interfering with the global warming meetings.
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:02 AM
THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA IS NOW SHOWING A 75-25 MCCAIN LEAD!!!
A poll sponsored by Sean Hannity, Karl Rove, and Boomshack now shows John McCain has surged so much he will now win DC!
Yes, I am being rediculous on purpose to illustrate a point- you people are so nervous about little upticks and downticks in the polls. STOP IT!! It gets you nowhere to fret about it. The bottom line to quote Robert Gibbs "I would much rather be us than them right now". Keep the faith OBAMA/BIDEN 08!
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:03 AM
There is nothing negative about being 4% up in this poll. Several reasons;
1) Ras has a bias of 1-2% rep as covered earlier on this site.
2) 36 straight days above 50%.
3) Tuesday's poor day will fall off this poll soon.
4) 5 days to go.
Let's get out the vote and get this job done.
With Obama at a solid 51.. (even could drop down to 50 or 49) there's no room for McCain to overtake him. 1 or 2% will vote 3d party. 1 or 2% will just sit it out. There are not enough truly "undecideds" left to make up the difference. (Despite what some of these polls say)
I think the impact of Informercial is solidifying soft supporters.
That means not so much gaining undecided voters as preventing soft voters swayed by final attacks from Maccain campaign.
To keep the soft supporters or leaners for Obama column until election day, that is the purpose of the mission of informercial.
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:05 AM
Agreed, so many people forget that if it stays over 50 for Obama/Biden, it's over. However, as it tightens, it doesn't look like Obama is getting many of the undecideds like McCain is, if that is what is really happening. This isn't what people expected (an approximate even split). Look at the national chart and it's hard to deny that McCain isn't increasing at Obama's expense.
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:07 AM
The Ras narrative is interesting. He seems to be saying that the tightening we've seen and debated is the result of McCain-leaning undecideds finally stating a preference over the last week, and at this point there's not much more tightening that can possibly occur. That's good news for Obama, but it may also explain why we didn't see an Obamamercial bump - the commercial didn't change anyone's mind because everyone's pretty much already decided. That doesn't mean the commercial was a waste, though. It was a pretty good pep talk for the people who have been supporting him for the last 20 months. Also, even if it didn't change anyone's mind, a lot of people who aren't going to vote for him are going to be more accepting of him as president, and that'll make him a more effective leader.
It's climate change - not global warming ... and just about every respected scientist agrees it is occurring. Being facetious doesn't make it not true.
And as for tightening - the other trackers released so far today show a holding (Zogby) or widening (Battleground, R2K).
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:08 AM
It's all about the West.. As Jim Morrison said.. "The West is the best.. get here, and we'll do the rest."
Obama swings through NV, CO, NM, and yes, AZ on Monday. McCain has basically pulled most of his advertising from those states. (but will come back to AZ to avoid total humiliation). Two wacky polls from NM last night, one tied, one at O+17. Both are a little off, obviously. Obama will take NM by a solid 8 or 9.. if not more. Nevada will be close.. but I think a good 5 or 6 point cushion will hold through Tuesday. I don't see how McCain comes back in CO when Obama is dominating the airwaves and the ground game there.
3 Western states + IA, and the rest is meaningless, unless McCain somehow flips PA, AND holds the rest of the remaining 2004 red states. (NC, OH, FL, GA, MO, IN, etc.)
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:09 AM
If Obama is really at 50 nationally and in a number of key swing states, 100% of the undecideds could swing to McCain and it won't matter, Obama will win. I think that's the point Rasmussen was making in his analysis. And it's unlikely Obama is going to go below 50% given that he's been at that level or above in Rasmussen's daily tracker for 36 - 36 - straight days.
Obama could win 50.1% of the popular vote and still break 300 EVs. That's probably what is going to happen.
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:12 AM
Sorry its just a fact. Obama is at +5 for the week sitting at 51 while McCain is at 46. You cannot look at a tracker's daily movement because they are too influced by individual nights of interiviewing. The tightning we have seen appears to be receding a bit.
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:16 AM
Isher: "Plus ras has a self-interest in giving republicans hope."
This is what I find interesting. There are a few polls out there which tend to lean with a Rep bias as if to make the Reps look better, yet as demonstrated by southern angler on another thread there is a definite tendency by conservatives to skew poll results in favor of Dems. Why such a dichotomy?
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:29 AM
I would be interested in the results if anyone did a "blank slate" poll. That is, ignore weighting, demographics, etc. and do a large sample poll and see what the results would be. And yes, I realize that is essentially what aggregate polling does.
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:34 AM
More importantly, Rasmussen is now predicting a Democratic landslide based on their state-by-state polling:
Would you have a likely voter screen? If not, I'll bet Obama comes out with a larger lead than he's been getting in most standard polls.
I agree that it would be interesting to see a large sample size poll of likely voters that ignores demographics.
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:41 AM
Just to piggy back on what Thatcher said, you do realize that "global warming" triggers many forms of extreme weather right? I know its extremely difficult to wrap one's mind around, but that includes extreme cold weather as well.
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:49 AM
Yeah, we had some early snow in the Northeast so obviously global warming is a myth. Forget the fact that September had the 9th warmest global temperature readings since 1880. We can ignore that because that doesn't help prove our thesis.
Posted on October 31, 2008 11:06 AM
In regards to the issues of narrowing and widening of polls. A very important additional consideration is the mix of polls used in the averages. If one uses 7 polls and 4 use the 2004 D-R-I numbers for their LV while 3 use more current registration figures it will bias things toward the Republican candidate...if the previous week one used 4 polls that used current stats and only 3 used the 2004 numbers it would be biased toward the Democrat. Thus by simple shifts in the "mix" of polls used one can create a tightening without any real shift occurring in the polls themselves.
What one should really do is examine the directionality of each individual poll themselves. Of course, here you have issues over the frequency of polls, whether they carry over data from day to day (3-day tracking polls), etc.
As well polls simply shift up or down a few points due to statistical "random walk". Getting all excited over a shift of one poll by a point or two is actually not very rational. At best, if it goes up you can guess that candidsate hasn't had their support collapse, or if it drops a point or two it's less likely they have made major gains.
Posted on October 31, 2008 11:09 AM
you can believe in a surge if youd like, but youd be wrong. obama has been at about +6 on the RCP average for the entire week... and no polls have come out showing a tie, let alone mccain with a slight lead of any kind. furthermore the electoral map looks like a disaster for mccain right now. and unfortunately for mccain... "Right now" is 4 days before the election.
Posted on October 31, 2008 11:18 AM
Just out: Gallup Daily: Obama’s Lead Widens Some on All Bases
Barack Obama holds an eight percentage point lead over John McCain among “traditional likely voters” -- 51% to 43% -- his largest margin to date using this historical Gallup Poll voter model. He leads by nine points among “expanded likely voters.”
The infomercial has definitely worked in the good direction
Posted on October 31, 2008 1:31 PM
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