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US: Obama 52, McCain 39 (CBSTimes-10/19-22)

Topics: PHome

CBS News / New York Times
10/19-22/08; LV (from a sample of 1,046 RV)
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(CBS story)

National
Obama 52, McCain 39

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

OH Baby! This is getting fun now!

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boom&KipTinSUCK:

I've been watching MSNBC for half an hour
On the David's show all Republicans are referring to the AP poll to suggest that the race is tightening, they seemingly approve that 44% of the electorate are newly-born Christians who are knowingly representing the GOP base.
Bottom line is based on the AP's sample McCain should be ahead, 44% of Christians Are you kidding?

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alankeyesisawesome:

Is there any data on how many of the new democratic registrations can be discarded? If we purge enough democratic voters from the registration lists, will it make a difference in the election? Hopefully, but we need to take a more proactive roll.

And for anyone that says that that's unfair, well, it wasn't very fair for ACORN to forge all these voter registrations in the first place!

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Atomique:

Aww yeah, that's the kind of poll I like to see 12 days before the election!

There's still a lot of work to be done, folks. It's time to be optimistic but not complacent. Keep donating and volunteering!

Yes we can! ¡Sí se puede!

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boom&KipTinSUCK:

While I don't think Obama's numbers are that high I doubt Obama is ahead by only +1 or +2 nationally why?
Mathematically it doesn't make sense to be +1 or +3 nationally and get 306 EVs (whose 268 strong) + NC, FL, MT, ND, IN, MO, NV as toss ups, that just doesn't match up
According to those state-by-state polls Obama may be up by a range of 5-7 points

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BOOMFAIL:

As I said weeks ago, Obama will open up and KEEP double digit leads through election day. There are huge amounts of voters that are not even being reached by pollsters (cell phones, caller ID, etc.) Plus throngs of newly registered voters that are not even counted if they ARE contacted. This election will be similar to 1980, where the undecideds and independents swing massively towards Obama once they are comfortable with him. The debates sealed the deal. He has been Presidential, steady, intelligent, and overall has a message of HOPE that we need especially in the state our country is in right now. McShame has been the exact opposite, erratic, angry, etc. and his slimey attacks have only backfired. Note to McShame: Nobody cares about what you say, or Joe the plummer for that matter. Your argument about spreading the wealth and socialism makes absolutely no sense, especially since rethugs have stood for tax cuts all the time. But now that the middle class is set for a tax cut, the tune changes. People are smarter than McShame gives them credit for, goshdarnit! If you think he is seen as a joke now, wait until you see how history treats his campaign!

This election is going to be massive and bring a huge change to government and the way things get done. Change is finally coming, my friends. Vote early if your state allows it, or expect to wait for very long lines on election day. We are headed for record breaking turnout. 12 more days...YES WE CAN!

Landslide Baby Landslide!

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Of course the media have an interest in making it seem as though the race is close. To that extent, the media and McSame have identical interests.

As for McSame supporters, well, they are (understandably) experiencing stage 1 of grief: denial.

I do enjoy some of the absurd comments by McSame supporters. How can Obama supporters have any fun unless they see the silly stuff that McSame supporters write?

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deeznutsrepubs:

boomfail - nate at 538 has shown that many pollsters now account for cell only users. if obama has a 13 point lead, he would have close to 400 EVs. He doesn't, so he doesn't.

He will win - no doubt. But the national tally is unlikely 13 points. For that to be the case, all the state polls today are way wrong. In any case, this year will be the first where there will be a skewing due to demographic and so influencing the national vs. state polling relationship.

11/4 will be fun. I am pulling for Kleeb in NE - he is going to be great. The guy is a rising star in the Dem party. I think he could be president in a decade or so. He would be good for Obama to run with in '12. Groom him for '16 is what I say. I'm getting carried away though - he is lagging that rove hack, johanns, right now.


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All_Will_Be_Clear_Nov_5:

Oops! I accidentally entered my screen name as a URL. It is not a link to anything. Sorry.

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boom&KipTinSUCK:

The Obama's camp is successfully trying to downplay they internal lead in PA, this is very smart, apparently Republicans think it's true
Strategically, when a candidate is ahead he's trying do downplay his lead in order to motivate his base. On the other hand when a candidate is far behind like McCain is in PA he needs encourage his base, to convince his base that he still can win otherwise they could be discouraged and might not turn out as hugely as they are needed to in order to offset the enthusiasm of Obama's voters

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JoeyJams:


The current betting odds for off shore bookmakers generally show Obama favored by 7 to 1 up to over 9 to 1 odds. Just after the Republican Convention the odds were closer to 50-50 As of today most of the money bet is going for Obama.

bookmaker.com
2008 US ELECTIONS - Oct 23
2008 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PARTY TO WIN THE ELECTIONS $3000 LIMIT
$3000 LIMIT 6:00 PM
1091 REPUBLICAN PARTY - - +640
1092 DEMOCRATIC PARTY - - -710

also see intrade.com, bestbetting.com

So McCain is definitely a long shot now. So if you believe McCain is going to win. Go and bet those big odds (non US residents) Much better than the stock market for the near future.

I will keep my money as Obama will win.
BTW Ohio just went from tossup to leaning Obama.

NOTE this is not an inducement for US residents to to violate US gambling laws.

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All_Will_Be_Clear_Nov_5:

Atomique:

Georgia will probably be close, although it seems unlikely that Obama can win. But the Senate race is even closer. Jim Martin is trying to take back the Senate seat that Saxby Chamblis took from Max Cleland by running ads impugning Cleland's patriotism (Cleland is a Vietnam vet and triple amputee).

If neither Martin nor Chamblis receives more than 50%, then there will be a run-off a few weeks later. This is a real possibility. There is a 3rd party candidate who might receive 2-3% of the vote.

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Gary Kilbride:

JoeyJams,

Yeah, there are a lot of betting options popping up now. A decade ago the offshore books were more aggressive putting things up early. Now they wait until late in the game when things have settled.

Ladbrokes had a good price on McCain to win Georgia, 2/5. That's better than anything available on Intrade, which is above 1/3. I'll take my chances in Georgia. IMO, the correct price is much higher than 2/5, which equates to -250.

Believe it or not, Ladbrokes is already taking presidential bets for 2012. Obama is 4/5, or -125. No one else is less than 16/1. LOL. That's a bit of a reach. I think I can do better over a 4 year period than laying a price and freezing the money.

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miatch:

Anyone think McCain will hit 0 on intrade.com before th3 4th?


Lots of money you could make there, Boomey & Kippy

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Basil:

Obama Tsunami! Aieeeee!

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joethedummer:

alankeys say it with me baby yessss weeee cannnnnn yessss weeeee cannnnnnnn
yessssss weeeee cannnnnnnnn
yesssssssssssss weeeeeeeeeee cannnnnnnnnnn

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Observer:

What is the point of polls like this? You sample 41% Dems and 28% Reps and you end up with a lead for the Dem candidate of 13%. Duh!

Rasmussen inputs a Dem sampling lead of 6.7& this week and their figures now show an Obama lead of 7%. Duh!!

Kos sample 9% more Dems and now show a lead of 10% (8% a few days ago). Duh !!!

How big or small a lead do you want? For a small fee I can tell you how to get it. Duh!!!***...

Sure Obama has a lead, but polls like this don't tell us anything about how large or how small it might be.

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AtlantaBill:

@Atomique:
"Rasmussen has McCain only up by 5 in Georgia!"

Well, "nuklear" guy, as a georgian, I remain less optimistic about the state for one single reason: TOUCHSCREEN voting machines. As a 2nd precaution I'll add that we have a rethuglican administration holding all reins to power in this state. Even though winning in a realistic sense is quite likely, the actual counting of the votes will not get tallied and properly recorded. I have made the argument to our sect't of state (via Ltr. to the Editor) that paperless voting is the only important transaction we make in life without requiring a receipt of some form. Imagine going into a bank and making a cash deposit by simply handing your money to a cashier and walking out with no receipt; or, receiving a 'verbal' speeding citation issued by a paperless police officer.

Paperless voting is a recipe for corrupting the democratic process regardless of who happens to be in power at the time. The one and only answer is nationalizing the voting process when it comes to statewide/national elections. Assuming the dems win this time around, I'd bet my 401k that the republicans will insist that we immediately get rid of these touchscreen machines before another election. You know, it will be kinda like the special prosecutor statue that was used against Bill Clinton throughout his administration. You will recall that when bush took power, that baby quickly went bye-bye.

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dc:

alankeyesisawesome:

Um, dude, if the registration is forged, then no one will be showing up to vote. Do you really expect Mickey Mouse to show up on election day? Really? No, really?

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