Daily Kos (D)/ Research 2000
10/01-03,08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 52, McCain 40
Posted on October 4, 2008 11:13 AM
+12??? Today Rasmussen is +6. Both are LIKELY voters. Yesterday Daily Kos +11, Rasmussen +7 and Gallup (RV) +7. (Too early for today's Gallup.)
Maybe it is the small DAILY samples (Sample: 359. Margin of Error: 5%). Whereas Gallup (RV) has a daily sample of 1000 and Rasmussen (LV) also has a daily sample of 1000.
Posted on October 4, 2008 12:06 PM
What is good about this poll is the published internals.
We might not like the ID composition but it gives us that information and all the Demographics to make an informed decision.
This poll has McCain/Palin shedding Independent support.
Posted on October 4, 2008 12:23 PM
I have a feeling that Gallup could be as much as + 9% today!
Posted on October 4, 2008 12:25 PM
October 5 Daily Kos is available. Obama same as October 4 at +12. However, Obama advantage increased in Northeast and with age 18-29.
Also note, that according to 538, Nebraska's one electoral vote is in play (Omaha): http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/omaha-nebraskas-one-electoral-vote-is.html
The article states that Palin is visiting Omaha which is a sure sign they are at least somewhat worried.
The only other state with electoral representation by congressional district is Maine which as we know is leaning Obama but which is still being contested by McCain. Polls in Maine are now showing Obama with less of an advantage than any other New England state, including New Hampshire. If Obama or Biden visit Maine, then we will know they are somewhat worried as well.
Posted on October 5, 2008 8:25 AM
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