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US: Obama 52, McCain 40 (Daily Kos 10/21-23)

Topics: PHome

Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/21-23,08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 52, McCain 40

 

Comments
mysticlaker:

Indiana now blue on RCP with O +.5

375-163...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

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JimGray:

Before he gets some crazy post up here about how all the numbers are wrong, let me be the first to say,
Boomshak needs to get laid.

____________________

reverendmatt:

myticlaker

That is a bit misleading the link is to the no toss-up map, as I guess you probably knew..........

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

This poll shows a 12 point lead for Obama. I don't think Boomshak is going to even bother. He's reduced to cherry picking the best poll of the day. Check him out over on the poll that shows just a 9 point Obama lead.

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mac7396:

Are there still any polls that just show a 9 point Obama lead?

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mysticlaker:

@reverand...

Yup it's .5% lead. So it won't be in there count for safe states.

I hate RCP, but just like to look at the pretty blue sometimes.

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Darwin Please:

Is it true that the youth are not exceeding traditional early voting trends?

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zen:


I just saw the GOP ad about Biden's comment on crisis if Obama is elected.... Do you have any idea what will be the impact of this AD?
I can't understand Biden why he is talking this kind of things to doners... he can talk this kind of talk to insiders... but to doners?
simply unconceivable.

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angrytoxicologist:

Did anyone see the IA/politico poll of franklin county?

“[McCain’s] doing worse with males than he’s doing with females, and Obama’s picking up the lion’s share of independents in this particular county.”

53/38

Really? That's crazy! Maybe it's all the OSU students, although even that many students shouldn't be able to move it that much and in disproportion to the women. Anyone have any ideas why Columbus would defy the trend?

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huetdebd:

if you look at what rassmusen polled this time of year in the last election the actual results where half of what was polled. so if obama is up 7 he will remain up 3.5 points. that's still a huge victory. the electorate will show a lanslide.

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mysticlaker:

@zen...I think the economy is the only issue that is going to be at play. It's a good ad scare ad though.

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douglasfactors:

The funny thing is Biden's comments make perfect sense. It's only a gaffe to people who desperately want it to be.

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zen:


RE: Biden's comment becomes GOP ad
http://kr.youtube.com/watch?v=pgbS-vy9_Sk

I'm quite concerned that this ad will flip uncommited Obama supporters.
Please comment.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@zen...

It's the economy.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

It's just another negative ad, and it wasn't that scary. Hillary's 3 AM ad had a far more negative tone. I don't think it's going to flip anyone.

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MisterMagoo:

@Zen, Obama is going to lose because of this ad, Boom told me.

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Vokoban:

Last election had been 14% FTVs. This time, they say, it's again 14%.

That makes 28% FTVs in 2 elections.

Humans at an average live through 13-15 elections as adults. Multiply that with 14 - and you'll know why these numbers are huge.

Now the youth vote was split in 2004 - but it is different this time: it is split 60:40 for Obama, and that's a conservative estimate.

And you can bet a lot of the FTVs from 2004 simply feel betrayed by the Repubs.

So there are 28% of the electorate falling for Obama with a huge percentage.

____________________

MisterMagoo:

@Shannon,

In fact, that's a very good point, the sharpest Obama's fight had to battle, was against H.Clinton which went sometimes uglier than against McCain.

____________________

maddiekat:

This new ad will not sway any voters because McCain has tried so many different attacks no one is paying attention any more. Ever hear of the little boy who cried wolf?.

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mandalorianarmy:

Boom is just getting all of his head lines from Drudge.

Where Gallup probably has a small and volatile amount of early voters in its sample, most states have been keep count of party ids of early voters and it is hardly 50/50.

North Carolina: Dem 56%, Rep 27%, None 17%
Iowa: Dem 50%, Rep 28%, None 21%
Nevada: Dem 57%, Rep 27%, None 16%
Florida: Dem 41%, Rep 41%, None 17%

So Florida is the only one that is tied and that is because of all of the seniors who vote early. Normally Republicans lead in early voting totals so it really shows you where the enthusiasm is at in this election.

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Thatcher:

Strategic Vision just came out with some state polls. You can see the possible (R) lean in a couple:

All are MOE +/-3

Florida
Obama 46, McCain 48
McCain +2

Georgia
McCain 51, Obama 45
McCain +6

Ohio
Obama 45, McCain 48
McCain +3

Pennsylvania
Obama 50, McCain 43
Obama +7

All of these polls, except for PA, is in within MOE. And Strategic Vision usually leans 1 or 2 to the Republican side. ALL OF THESE POLLS - including GA. When considering the MOE and the 1 - 2% lean - I think all these polls are pretty close to correct.

____________________

mysticlaker:
____________________

BigTex:

We have to be careful. We still have to combat Diebold, ES&S, Sequoia, and vote list purges and mis-allocation of voting machines.

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BOOMFAIL:

The Strategic Vision pollsters wear Rethug goggles. Furthest thing from accurate.

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mandalorianarmy:

I wish all of the pollsters would just give me the registered voter numbers and I will take it for it it's worth.

I don't want some of these pollsters crappy likely voter models.

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boomshack:

2all of you moonbats coming to celebrate the bogus dailyBOGUS poll: BOGUS!
read my lips:
Statistical heat by Sunday!

____________________

carl29:

Did you hear that the McCain worker who alleged being attacked by someone in PA is being asked by the police to take a polygraph test?

This is exactly what I told my husband last nigth. This story sounds "weird," and believe me police is not dumb. You don't lie to the police. This will make them mad. If she was lying, this is big trouble for her, and will look bad for the McCain campaign. You don't get Police involved in political shows.

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mysticlaker:

This should tell you about SV. Look at Palin fav numbers...(crosspost from 538)

Ohio
Favorable/unfavorable:

Barack Obama
Favorable 49%
Unfavorable 41%
Undecided 10%

Joseph Biden
Favorable 46%
Unfavorable 42%
Undecided 12%

John McCain
Favorable 48%
Unfavorable 42%
Undecided 10%

Sarah Palin
Favorable 49%
Unfavorable 39%
Undecided 12%

Florida

2. Barack Obama
Favorable 49%
Unfavorable 40%
Undecided 11%

3. Joseph Biden
Favorable 45%
Unfavorable 41%
Undecided 14%

4. John McCain
Favorable 48%
Unfavorable 42%
Undecided 10%

5. Sarah Palin
Favorable 49%
Unfavorable 38%
Undecided 13%

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Voltron Defender of the Universe:

I would agree except for the Ohio number, the Insider Advantage poll was the third to show Obama up by 10 there, when Rasmussen comes out with his Ohio poll next MOnday that will tell where the trend really is. This one Fail!

Of course RCP will use this poll in their average but not PPP, that makes sense. Not1

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mysticlaker:

Voltron....

RCP will not use SV.

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MichaelJason:

Carl,

I said yesterday that I think that girl is lying. She refused medical treatment, and believe me, that "B" was done way too smooth for her "putting up a fight". I think she had someone do it to stir racial fears.

____________________

MisterMagoo:

@VDU

FAIL, RCP didn't use this poll in their average.

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mysticlaker:

today's Rasmussen
O-52
M-45

no change...

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mandalorianarmy:

Seriously Boom, McCain is a longshot now. If you are a principled conservative this will give you enough cover to vote for Bob Barr so that you can make a point to the Republicans that they have run your party into the ground.

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boomshack:

JimGray:

Before he gets some crazy post up here about how all the numbers are wrong, let me be the first to say,
Boomshak needs to get laid.

Look, this is just plain silly. None of us are here because we are super kewl or to get laid.
I get that from my Brittney Spears fan club site. We are here to talk polls. Let's face it, we are here because we are all political NERDS. So what if I have pimples and thick glasses and have pizza boxes all over the floor of my apartment? Who here doesn't?

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Thatcher:

@mysticlaker: hotline 50-43 O+2

Huh - guess boomshak won't like that ... HAHA

@mysticlaker: SV fav/unfav - wow - I didn't even bother digging in there ... yeah those are WAYYYYY OFFF - Palin the most favorable of all 4 ... ROFLMAO!

However, again - on first blush ... the toplines look plausable if you consider the MOE and known Republican lean:

Florida McCain +2 - remove 2 for lean ... TIED

Georgia McCain +6 - remove 2 for lean ... M+4 - within striking distance for O

Ohio McCain +3 - remove 2 for lean ... M+1 ... this one would be my choice for outlier

Pennsylvania Obama +7 - add 2 for lean ... O+9 - sounds about right based on all other polls

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mandalorianarmy:

Damnit I responded to the fake Boom. You got me this time!

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maddiekat:

boom****

I don't

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boomshack:

mandalorianarmy:

Seriously Boom, McCain is a longshot now. If you are a principled conservative this will give you enough cover to vote for Bob Barr so that you can make a point to the Republicans that they have run your party into the ground.

See, it's people like you who say that that poor woman in PA who say that the b on her face was for Bob Barr or boomshak! Or that she did it herself. I would not be a bit surprised if tomorrow we heard a story from drudge report about some other similar victim with an A on hers. (A for ACORN).

____________________

carl29:

MichaelJason,

That's exactly what I told my husband: I can't imagine someone being attacked on his or her face and stay still letting the person craft a perfect image on it. When someone attacks you, especially in the face, you don't keep you head/face still. It is so crazy, honestly. I told my husband, the police is not going to like this. Police don't like to be taken for a fool.

____________________

boomshack:

mysticlaker:

Ohio
Favorable/unfavorable:

Barack Obama
Favorable 49%
Unfavorable 41%
Undecided 10%

/rest of the verses deleted/

This is a stupid song. It doesn't even rhyme!
FAIL!

____________________

Dana Adini:

Rasmussen friday poll

O 52
M 45

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mac7396:

Ras is the same today. Hotline has Obama adding +2 from yesterday.

The surge is working my friends. For Obama.

____________________

boomshack:

maddiekat:

boom****

I don't

For a guy who can't even figure out how many cats he has, you are pretty confident.

FAIL!

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BOOMFAIL:

Someone won't be making a repeat appearance on Hardball:

A new pollcommissioned by a local broadcaster KSTP was released tonight.

In an election for United States House of Representative from Minnesota's 6th Congressional District today, 10/23/08, 12 days until votes are counted, DFL candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg has the nominal lead in an effectively tied race with Republican incumbent Michele Bachmann, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. Today, it's Tinklenberg 47%, Bachmann 44%, Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson 6%. Results are within the survey's 4.0 percentage point margin of sampling error.

____________________

Dana Adini:

Boom

we have been reading your lips for a months. YOu are just as big a liar as George Bush

____________________

boomshack:

Dana Adini:

Rasmussen funny poll
O 52
M 45

I don't see how this is funny.
FAIL!

____________________

boomshack:

Dana Adini:

Boom
we have been reading your lips for a months. YOu are just as big a liar as George Bush

The father or the son?

____________________

Voltron Defender of the Universe:

So far today.
Zogby:
O 51(-1)
M 41 (+1)

R2k/DK:
O 52 (+1)
M 40 (-1)

Ras:
O 52 (nc)
M 45 (nc)

Hotline:
O 50 (+2)
M 43 (nc)

So Obama is holding steady, gaining some, I bet he either holds steady or gains in Battleground as another good McCain day rolls off. Gallup I bet Obama goes to +8 in the rv, and IBD who knows what that bathsit crazy poll will do. McCain winning 77-24 among 18-24 year olds! Yet Obama leads by 5 among independents and is winning the 40-50 age group! RIIIGHT! RFLAMO!


____________________

Vokoban:

Boom is no liar. That would imply he could count on someone to believe him in the first place.

He's here to ruin your day. That's all. Just some petty little mean behavior.

He will try day by day to ruin your happy expectations. And on November 5th - I bet he's already writing on that piece...

____________________

Thatcher:

NC EARLY/ABS VOTE TOTALS
(up through voting yesterday)

DEM 520,064 (55.89%)
REP 254,515 (27.35%)
UNA 155,476 (16.71%)
LIB 461
TOTAL 930,516

That's an increase of over 120,000 in one day

____________________

boomshack:

VOTER FRAUD ALERT

A friend of mine was buying Depends in Target yesterday. The one on the Circle At North Hills (I can post a link if someone doesn't believe me). He gave the sales clerk a twenty dollar bill, and she shortchanged him, pretending like she was giving change from a ten. He did not discover the fraud until he got home.

It is well known that Target stores are OWNED by Dayton-Target Corporation. And who is the owner of the Dayton-Target Corporation? None other than Mark Dayton, the most LIBERAL senator from Minnesota who also happens to be a HUGE contributor to OBOZONATORATORS!

Now, where do you suppose my friend's money went? Right! I am writing the FCC to file a complaint. Obama is seriously going down for this!

____________________

jonny87:

a few updates on early voting

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

no let up in turnout volume

____________________

mrzookie:

SUSA:

PA: O 53 M 41
NC: O 47 M 47
IA: O 52 M 39
KY: O 44 M 52

____________________

boomshack:

Voltron Defender of the Universe:

So far today.
Zogby:
O 51(-1)
M 41 (+1)
R2k/DK:
O 52 (+1)
M 40 (-1)
Ras:
O 52 (nc)
M 45 (nc)

All the stuff in the parenthesis adds up to ZERO! Exactly what's your point?

____________________

boomshack:

Zero, of course, indicating NO MOVEMENT since yesterday when McCain was within MOE in not one, not two, but THREE critical Poles.

____________________

Thatcher:

lol @ boomshaCk

____________________

Vokoban:

BoomshaCk is hilarious!

____________________

boomshack:

The saddest thing of all (or the funniest, depending on your twisted point of view), poster kerrchdavis is not going to remember any of this in the morning. Why, I bet he denies the entire thing! LIAR! OUTLIAR!

____________________

Thatcher:

@boomshaCk -

Zero, of course, indicating NO MOVEMENT since yesterday when McCain was within MOE in not one, not two, but THREE critical Poles.

Since when did people from Poland get to vote for US President?

Speaking of that ... http://www.foreignpolicy.com/gallup/

____________________

vmval1:

hey boom:

What was the scandal you predicted a couple of days ago?

____________________

He's back, BOOMSHACK with a "C" or is it kerrchdavis

____________________

jonny87:

@Thatcher

the numbers are crazy.

____________________

Vokoban:

@ Thatcher

>Speaking of that ... http://www.foreignpolicy.com/gallup/
Don't show this to the repubs. It will energize their base...

____________________

boomshack:

Thatcher:

NC EARLY/ABS VOTE TOTALS
(up through voting yesterday)

DEM 520,064 (55.89%)
REP 254,515 (27.35%)
UNA 155,476 (16.71%)
LIB 461
TOTAL 930,516

For a guy who keeps spamming us with the same stupid poll 1)without EVEN TELLING US WHOM THOSE SURVEYED EVEN PREFER, 2)TOTALLY oversampling the DEMS, 3)FAILING to combine LIBs with DEMS and 4)MISSPELLING ABC (ABS),
and 5) - what did I PROVE to you moonbats about the three letter polls? (FAIL!) you shouldn't be KipTin'ing on my spelling! So, I capitalized a Pole and you didn't. Just goes to show your [potential] racism and anti-Eastern European bias. Just because the Polish people supported George W. Bush LONGER than any other European nation is no reason to start all the Polish jokes on this site!

____________________

Thatcher:

@jonny87 - well, when you think in 2004, 3,552,449 TOTAL voted and this year they are just over 1/4th that in early vote alone - this is going to definitely follow Gallup's LV "extended" model in many states.

____________________

jonny87:

check out nevada early voting

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

.....and see how clark and washoe county went in 04

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_2004,_in_Nevada

obama must be winning so big there currently

____________________

Vokoban:

On the other hand, since Germany behaved like the 51st state at least until 2003, imagine 82 million people with 72% (latest poll came out today) voting for Obama.

How many EVs would that be? 65?

____________________

huetdebd:

Costs for this process are higher — but have recently been undertaken by several large survey organizations. Groups that have used cell phone users in their national samples or conducted side-by-side tests include Pew Research Center, Gallup, CBS News/New York Times, Time/SRBI, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, ABC News/Washington Post, and the Associated Press/GfK.

THIS COULD ANSWER THE EVER NAGGING QUESTION OF CELL USERS. IF THIS IS TRUE THEN THESE POLLS WOULD BE THE MOST ACCURATE.

____________________

BrookLynda:

Ras has Obama +7 for the second day straight. This thing is solidifying. People have made up their minds. Bad for McPlanecrash, bad for boom.

Ras is posting NH later today. That's the one I'm dying to see...can BHO break 270 in the dark blue??

____________________

Dana Adini:

early voting numbers from north carolina are staggering
nearly 930,000 voted more than 25% of 2004 total votes. These are official number from NC Sec. of State

2008 2004 early votes
Dem 55.9% 48.6%
Rep 27.3% 37.4%
None 16.8% 14.1%
Race
White 67.9%
Black 28.4%
Other 3.8%
Sex 2008 2004
Men 42.7% 56.6%
Women 56.5% 42.9%

____________________

mysticlaker:

insert drudge siren

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1024_633.aspx

Insider Advantage Georgia
O48-M47

The two polls were conducted last night, each with 615 registered, likely voters. The margin of errors for both is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.


The results:


Presidential

Obama, 48 percent

McCain, 47 percent

Other, 2 percent

Undecided, 3 percent


U.S. Senate

Chambliss, 44 percent

Martin, 42 percent

Buckley, 2 percent

Undecided, 12 percent

Matt Towery on the presidential race:


“Obama is doing better among white voters than Kerry did in 2004 (according to exit polls of that race), carrying some 28 percent of the white vote. He’s carrying around 75 percent both of the Hispanic and ‘other’ vote, which makes up between four and five percent of Georgia’s electorate. He is winning among independents, outside of the margin of error of the poll.


“While this is a tight race, the problem for McCain is that all but 3 percent of whites have made their decision and approximately 8 percent of black voters have continued to say they are undecided or voting ‘other.’ This will likely move closer to 95 percent for Obama when all said and done. Obama has room to go up.


“If the race were to remain the way it is today, you won’t see these numbers come to fruition until very late in the night of Nov. 4 or perhaps the next day. The early numbers will likely show McCain ahead, as the counties where Obama is doing best are some of the largest counties and will be the slowest to report.”


Towery on the U.S. Senate race: “The Senate race appears in my judgment either headed for a runoff or a Martin win, and here’s why I say that: over 15 percent of blacks say they still are undecided. The largest undecided segment among party affiliations are Democrats, who mirror that black percentage – 14.5 percent – and independents at 18 percent, who are leaning toward Martin by a margin of 45-33 percent. Generally speaking, at this point in a race, unless something were to turn it around, we would treat the undecideds two ways: we would either lop it off and redistribute it, or we would assign it based on the relative positions of the candidates as they stand today. Under either of those scenarios, Chambliss and Martin would be in a runoff.”

____________________

boomshack:

vmval1:

hey boom:
What was the scandal you predicted a couple of days ago?

For your information, I had already posted that in an earlier THREAD:

I got a response yesterday from John McCain's Campaign. I gave them a list of 6 questions that are guaranteed 2 SINK OBAMASHIP in a single question. Some of them I posted here for all you moonbats to read. Well, yesterday I heard BACK from The Maverick. And the bottom line of a very encouraging reply is that John McCain might actually use not one, but TWO of my questions against Obama in their NEXT DEBATE!

Can you spell SURGE HEAT by Sunday?!

____________________

jonny87:

is obama still running ads in Georgia?

____________________

huetdebd:

@DANA ADINI

i'm guessing that the percentages on the left are for obama?

____________________

mysticlaker:

@jonny

national and maybe cable only....

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/22/1281/1056/349/638345

____________________

boomshack:

huetdebd:

@DANA ADINI

i'm guessing that the percentages on the left are for obama?

No, they are for 2004.
For someone who...eh, forget it.

____________________

Dana Adini:

no the left are figures from this year's early voting showing Dems outnumber GOP 2-1 vs. 2004 on the right.

____________________

boomshack:

@vmval1

Make that AT LEAST two. He could use more.

____________________

dominoid:

@Boomshak
"Obama in their NEXT DEBATE!"

I knew you were a Dem trying to make sure we don't get complacent all along. Well done sir! But that one was too obvious!

____________________

mac7396:

What? Obama up in Georgia? Haven't they heard of McCain's 3 point plan to rescue the economy: 1) Ayers 2) Joe the Plumber 3) Cut taxes for corporations that ship jobs overseas

____________________

vmval1:

@dominod:

boomshack and boomshak are 2 different people. Boomshack is somewhat normal Dem, Boomshak is Crazy Right Wing Freak who is possibly Autistic.

____________________

boomshack:

Dana Adini:

no the left are figures from this year's early voting showing Dems outnumber GOP 2-1 vs. 2004 on the right.

I am glad that at least SOMEBODY on this site is EXPOSING the faulty demographics some leftist pollsters are using this year to show that lead for Obama. If you LIBS need a 2:1 excess of DEMS to have your candidate ahead in single digits, this electron is in the BAG. LOL.

Like I said, at least someone on this site has the balls to compare this blatant discrepancy (or should I say FIX?) to the last cycle!

Good for you, Dana Adini! You are as good as you are good looking! I might even consider dating someone like you if you were a couple of years younger. Please post your age and contrast it with the 2004 number.

____________________

dominoid:

@vmval1

I missed the spelling difference. In that case - Boomshack, great parody of a troll.

____________________

DecaturMark:

I am still seeing ads in GA. I do not know if they are national ones or local. But I have yet to see a McCain ad.

____________________

boomshack:

...and I am NOT saying it's kerrchdavis. Repeat: NOT

____________________

jonny87:

@DecaturMark

what kind of ground game is there in GA, did they move the paid staffers out?

____________________

Dan:

Early Voting.

So, more people are voting early in NC and GA this election. More dems. are voting early in most states (ex. FL). What does this tell us? Mostly that Obama supporters are more excited about thier candidate than McCain's. No big surprise there. It does not tell us that he will receive more votes! One important point not mentioned here is that party id in some southern states may not be a good barometer of current voter affiliation. Remember, prior to Reagan, the south was solidly democratic, and most voters who expressed a party affiliation listed D. Since then, the "solid south" did a 180, and is now solidly R. The posted tally in NC is skewed towards the Ds (2:1), and the over 55 crowd. Guess when these people registered. These are not newly registered dems who are voting enthusiastically here. Look at the data. Registered Ds in NC outnumer registered Rs by 45% to 33%. That is approximately the margin that Bush won in 2004. One other item. Many states hold closed primaries. In other words, you can vote only for the party in which you registered. Many more voters registered as Ds just to vote in the D primary, especially in those states with later primaries (i.e. PA), when the R side was already decided.

Bottom line. Party registration is not a good barometer for voting results.

____________________

jonny87:

@Dan

point taken, but i doubt mccains feeling that comfortable looking at the numbers

____________________

boomshack:

i keep emailing you, Dan, but it keeps bouncing.
what's the deal?

____________________

zigmeister:

Dow down over 450 points! Another great day for McShame! I love it! He out there doing robocalls about Ayers and the market is nosediving!

____________________

Dan:

when email address are you using?

____________________

boomshack:

the one in your name link.

____________________

huetdebd:

@boomshack

i realized that and tried to hit cancel. thought it didn't get sent. oh well. i'll look stupid like boomshaK for the day.

____________________

JimGray:

@ boomshak

The only part of your description I fit is "political". The rest is a big no.
My point being, there's more important things in life. Sure politics is important, but not to the semantic degree you're arguing and about a topic in the future you have NO control over.

____________________



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