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US: Obama 52, McCain 40 (Zogby 10/20-22)

Topics: PHome

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby
10/20-22,08; 1,206 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 52, McCain 40

 

Comments
JFactor:

What's going on with Zogby? Wasn't they supposed to be weighting by +2 Dem party ID? They must have changed that. Nevertheless, Nate Silver at 538 said that Zogby is good for watching trends, not horse race numbers, and the trend here is exceptionally good for Obama.
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http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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webim:

Quinnipiac

Florida : Obama +5
Ohio : +14
Pennsylvania : +13

link for who don't trust .
In french sorry

http://www.romandie.com/ats/news/081023103010.jeu7lfos.asp

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johncoz:

Daily weighted average for all 12 national polls was:

Obama 49.7/ McCain 43.3/ +6.4

For the three-day trackers:

Obama 51/ McCain 43.7/ +7.3

The seven-day graph of the daily trackers shows Obama's return to his best level of support (on 10/10) following his low-point of 49.6% on Saturday.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3151/2965740312_1938308823_b.jpg

It should be noted that the standard deviation on Obama's support on the raw tracker numbers is 2.1, and 1.3 for McCain. This is particularly bad news for McCain, since his trendline for the past seven days is now pointing downwards. Given the small number of undecides, his only realistic hope of closing the gap is stripping off soft Obama leaners, but the resiliance of Obama's figures over the past weeks suggests this is most unlikely, short of some catclysmic event.


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jonny87:

ohio +14,really?

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johncoz:

On Zogby, this is what I posted last night when he put up his numbers.

It's because it's Zogby that the numbers are of interest. His self-promotion for today goes as follows:
"I am very comfortable with our sample, especially given our track record in the last three presidential elections. Look at other polls and ask - Do they have enough college educated respondents? Enough Hispanics? Enough young voters? We do. And we have more Republicans in our sample than anyone else."

Note that what I regard as the "missing" McCain vote is undoubtedly hidden in his high (for a tracker) percentage of undecides.

If you want a laugh, check this out (spotted by Nate):
http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/zogby_poll_john_zogby


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OneAngryDwarf:

@jonny87

There is no WAY that number can be anything but an outlier. Unless they were polling in the heart of Cleveland and nowhere else that just doesn't compute. We all saw the McCain/Palin rally's in Ohio a week or so ago and there are just too many people who are voting against O for that number to be accurate.

They say that McCain is only getting 38% of the vote while Obama takes 52%. McCain's numbers are low but not that low.

The other numbers are plausible but no way OH +14, no matter how much I wish it were true.

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Vokoban:

http://www.spiegel.de/spam/0,1518,grossbild-1333045-585538,00.html

translation: "When I wave my hand like that... naked virgins start falling from the skies and cows **** dollars!"

Good morning, America!

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1magine:

That Q POLL IS FROM 10/1 - - OLD NEWS

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Vokoban

Hilarious. Pollster has a very multi-cultural thing going on this morning with the poll numbers from a French site, now you're posting German satire.

Nice.

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mac7396:

Dear Mr. Zogby,
You are soooooooo banned from my web site.

Love,
Matt Drudge

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webim:

Hold On .
I bet 100$ that my numbers are true .
Wait and see ....
I mean number are from today & from quinipac . You will see .

Rendez vous this afternoon

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johncoz:

@dwarf

And Australia here. Despite the deeply insular (and in the case of the right, xenophobic) nature of US politics. There is a deep interest around the world, because like it or not we are all in this together. It matters, to all of us.

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Ulysses:

With 12 days to go to the election, it's pretty clear that this country is on the edge of the sort of shift in direction that comes only a few times in a lifetime. As an Independent who thought he would vote for my erstwhile hero John McCain up until about 3 months ago, I understand pretty personally why this has happened. I am now fervently and without question looking forward to voting for Barack Obama, and I am not alone. Over the past few weeks I've spoken to at least ten -- that's right 10 -- Republican friends who are voting Democrat, a good portion of them for the first time in their lives. Why? Because the torch and spirit of the revolution that Ronald Reagan brought to this country almost thirty years ago has clearly sputtered out in the hands of the Republicans, who have squandered it, and essentially spat upon the deeply admirable GOP values of fiscal responsibility, less government, freedom from government intrusion and surveillance, and the separation of church and state in ALL matters. What happened to this legacy? How has this generation of Republicans, and the Supreme Court they have created, turned into this monster of intrusion into people’s personal lives, and proxy for the Christian church?

The irony of ironies is that Barack Obama -- freed from the noxious cloud of offensive untruths and outright lies created by a once admirable, but now despicable and desperate GOP -- more closely embodies the pragmatism, values and idealism of Ronald Reagan than anyone in the present-day Republican Party. I will vote for him with pride, and look forward to a country out from under the twisted and peculiar gyrations of policy, and downright dishonesty of this current regime for the past 8-10 years.

It makes me very sad to see what has happened to John McCain, a man I once held in great respect. He has sold his soul to the worst aspects of the party, and has sacrificed himself to the same disgusting tactics he suffered from at the hands of our current president.

God save the man. I hope he can redeem himself after this election. And I hope the GOP can free itself from the Christian right, the paranoid Neocons, the arrogant haters of foreign nations, and the mindless warmongers.

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sunnymi:

Pollster John Zogby: "Obama now has a huge lead among young voters, independents, and Hispanic voters. It's obviously not over. Frankly, this could tighten up and then loosen up again before Election Day. We saw movement on Election Day in New Hampshire, but at least for now, Obama has a very big lead. In the absence of news, McCain is not connecting. He seemed to be connecting during and immediately after the last debate, but got lost in issues that are not on people's minds. At some point, there are some issues that just overwhelm, and McCain has been particularly weak on the economy. He misstated the problem, confused his position, acted in a frantic way, and then looked like he wanted to run away from it. Meanwhile, Obama has been cool and confident, which worked for FDR in 1932 and worked for Ronald Reagan in 1980."

"I am very comfortable with our sample, especially given our track record in the last three presidential elections. Look at other polls and ask - Do they have enough college educated respondents? Enough Hispanics? Enough young voters? We do. And we have more Republicans in our sample than anyone else."

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zoot:

webim is correct - see http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1223.

Don't have time to poke around for internal data, but appear to be very large sampling groups, concluded 10-21, so not at all stale.

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paradski:

Don't make me love you John!

Still not a Zogby fan but good to see anyway.

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MDB1974:

Top of the mornin to ya. Wow. This is without a doubt the most impressive Onumbers we have seen period.

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webim:

I can tell you that all the world is praying for Obama win .
Understand that this is for the interest of the US ...
You are too much unloved worlwide (despite georgia & Israel) and I can tell you , I'm traveling a lot ....

Us is no more an example like in the 80s , 90s .
So sad

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johncoz:

Damn Ulysses, just make sure your friends all go out to vote. As Jean-Luc Picard would say: "Make it so."

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sunnymi:


Yes, webim is correct regarding Quinnipiac polls:

Florida: Obama up 49 - 44 percent, compared to 51 - 43 percent October 1;

Ohio: Obama up 52 - 38 percent, widening an October 1 lead of 50 - 42 percent;

Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 - 40 percent, compared to 54 - 39 percent last time.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1223

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OneAngryDwarf:

@johncoz

Yeah I agree with you about the right and the xenophobia. I'm not sure when this country went off the rails (oh yeah 2000) but I'm really hoping that we are getting close to taking it back now.

I'm sure that we'll have the Christian Crazies looning out after the election and it will probalby result in a bunch of isolated violent incidents but it will be worth it. Never much like the idea of electing someone to office who believes that the "End of Days" is upon us and that we don't have to deal with the future because Jesus will take care of it.

twelve more days and we can start cleaning up this mess.

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sunnymi:


Yes, webim is correct regarding Quinnipiac polls:

From October 16 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
1,433 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
1,360 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percent;
1,425 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.


Florida: Obama up 49 - 44 percent, compared to 51 - 43 percent October 1;

Ohio: Obama up 52 - 38 percent, widening an October 1 lead of 50 - 42 percent;

Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 - 40 percent, compared to 54 - 39 percent last time.


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1223

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JFactor:

http://www.romandie.com/ats/news/081023103010.jeu7lfos.asp

The French article indeed claims that the Quinnipiac polls were conducted between 16-21 of October.

Florida 49%-44% Obama +5
Ohio 52%-38% Obama +14
Pennsylvania 53-40% Obama +13

I don't know where the French would've got these new numbers since there isn't anything on Quinnipiac's website. Besides, these numbers look way too good, in Ohio particularly, to be believable. Obama ahead by double digits in Ohio? Not a chance.
________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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Wow....I get to be the first to say it today?!?!? Okay.....Boom? Boom? SOMEBODY CALL 911!!! Boomshak's out cold on the floor..........LOLOLOLOLOL...

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paradski:

The Q numbers are new. they are already posted on RCP

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jonny87:

any floridians here?

what do people attribute the narrowing in the polls in fl?

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Dee_El

No this just means he'll be in here in a bit screaming about how he can't believe what an epic fail this poll is. How it is the worst pollster ever and that only polls that agree with his chosen position should count.

After that he'll start spamming the site with Cut/Paste articles from Redstate or Drudge telling us how the "end is near, for Obama" or other such nonsense.

Dude is nothing if not predicatable.

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jonny87:

'Obama leads 71 - 20 percent among those who already have voted in Ohio'

wow

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Marcus:

WoW ...

Ohio 52%-38% Obama +14 from Quinnipiac.

This is obviously an outlier but Quinnipiac has a very good reputation , especially in the Pa/OH region so i would much much rather have a 14 point spread in my favor than anything else. 14 Points in Ohio .. man. Cut 10 points off and id still be happy . So unbelievable they might just not be true.

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Marcus:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1223

"Ohio

Obama leads 71 - 20 percent among those who already have voted in Ohio."

Thats insane .....

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boomshak:

WHAT A WHACKIE POLLING SEASON THIS IS:

Either it has gotten REALLY hard to poll or some of these pollsters have lost their minds.

I've been watching POTUS elections for 40 years now and I have NEVER seen such a MASSIVE variance between national polls.

I mean, Zogby goes from Obama +2 and sinking like as rock to O+12 with no end in site in just 4 days? A 10 point move on a tracking poll?

During this same time, Gallup goes to +5, Rasmussen +6, Hotline +5 and TIPP +4.

The same is true of state polls. FoxNews/Rasmussen shows OH M+2 and Quinn comes out 2 days later and it is O+14? A 16 point swing in 2 days?

CONCLUSION:
After the debacle of the primaries, this may be the year that polling finally loses all credibility. How can you have two concurrent "scientific" polls 16 points apart?

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Vokoban:

I can figure a lot of real conservatives not going to the polls this year out of sheer disgust.
My father was very conservative. He would have never voted for someone raging against all values of fairness and decency like John McCain.

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boomshak:

ONE POSSIBLE EXPLANATION:

Zogby is being paid by Reuters on this poll. reuters is VERY left wing and may have said, "dude, what the hell are you doing with Obama up only 2?!"

I dunno. Half the polls show the race tightening and half show in blowing up. Bizzare.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@Dee_El

I rest my case...

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johncoz:

@dwarf

The world is watching, and not just in a self-interested way. For an Afican-American to be elected POTUS would send a message to the global community that could never be matched by troops, aid, or diplomacy. The moment, as Powell said, would be transformational; reinvigorating the inspiration of the "American Dream" in a way that I suspect many voters do not yet fully comprehend.

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boomshak:

@Marcus:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1223

"Ohio

Obama leads 71 - 20 percent among those who already have voted in Ohio."

Thats insane .....

That sounds like a statistical impossibility. Something is seriously f*cked up with these polls.

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sunnymi:


Boomshak:
I think this variation in state polling partly to do with pollsters weighting their sample by a fixed party ID (like Rasmussen) and those who just hold the demographic weightage and let the party ID fall where it may (like PPP, SUSA and Quinnipiac).

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Marcus:

@ Boom

i kinda agree that polling and weighing IDs , LV models etc. are all over the place but thats where places like RCP, 538, and Pollster come in. This huge amount of polling averaged really is the only indicator in my mind. Chance of the avg of 10+ polls of the same state beeing way out of line are practically zero. So looking at things a +7 Obama and some small to solid leads in just about every Battleground appears 100% correct and it really smells like a landslide.

And is it just me or does Palin seem just about fed up with McCain and his campaign. I really get the feeling she just would love to take over the party RIGHT NOW.

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boomshak:

@johncoz:

The Socialist world is hoping for a Soclialist POTUS. What do you think USSR stands for?

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Vokoban:

@ Johncoz

Absolutely right. But also the worst possible scenario is worth mentioning: what signal would it be to the world if one of the whipped up right-wing nuts would shoot Obama?

Imagine the legacy of a McCain presidency then...

Imagine him meeting with other foreign leaders...

You think anyone would be glad to negotiate with him? Would be the kiss of death in the home polls.

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Dan:

Can Zogby be believed? His national numbers show increased seperation, while his state numbers show contraction. NV - McCain +7, OH McCain +3, CO, NM, & NH all dead even! And VA only Obama +4. His national numbers do not match his state polls. Something has to give.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@johncoz

I agree with your completely. My wife and I talk about it very often. We had an interesting moment a while back when my daughter watched Star Wars for the first time. She was asking us a question about "the black guy" in one of the movies and my wife and I automatically assumed she meant Billy D. Williams. Turns out she was asking about Darth Vader.

I do hope Obama wins because it will open up a whole new era of mutliculturalism in America, where the children of this generation will not think in the racially divisive terms that most of us grew up with. I for one can't wait for that day.

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Marcus:

@ Dan

repeat after me: "Ignore Zogby interactive online crappy state polls"

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sunnymi:


Early voters in OH are a very small percentage of the overall voters..as such it is possible for such skewed numbers to exist.

Remember OH does not have early voting after Oct 6th when the registration ended.

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johncoz:

boom (good morning, buttercup)

The polls are rather consistent, really. No good news for McCain! When was the last time he had a lead in any national poll?

Let's face it, he's ****ed. We just won't know how hard until Nov 4.

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boomshak:

OBAMA ON THE TONE OF THE CAMPAIGN:

"I don't think there is any equivalence between what we've been doing and what John McCain has been doing."

"Socialistic" and "pals around with terrorists...just the kind of stuff that I can't imagine saying about an opponent of mine."


MEANWHILE, the Obama Campaign is running an ad in NC right now claiming that McCain will cut Medicare by over $800 billion dollars.

Both the Washington Post and ABCNews have come out saying the ad is "A COMPLETE AND UTTER LIE. A TOTAL FABRICATION!"

Yes, Obama, YOU are running an honorable campaign.

Doesn't it bother you that this man can look you right in the eye and lie? Didn't you get enough of that from Bill Clinton?

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boomshak:

Has anyone in the MSM asked Obama:

"Are you a Socialist?"

Nope.

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abraxaf:

Does anyone know when the Selzer & Co. Indiana poll is coming out? I thought it was due a few days ago!

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OneAngryDwarf:

@everyone except boomshak

Look everyone look at the Republican flailing around trying to justify his failed candidate.

Lets point and laugh.

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Cho:

Daily Kos steady at O +10

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boomshak:

@Dan:

Can Zogby be believed? His national numbers show increased seperation, while his state numbers show contraction. NV - McCain +7, OH McCain +3, CO, NM, & NH all dead even! And VA only Obama +4. His national numbers do not match his state polls. Something has to give.

The weirdest part is that Zogby seems to have no problem posting both sets of numbers concurrently with the national numbers showing Obama winning and the state numbers showing McCain winning.

The man has truly lost it.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@boomshak

Why doesn't that media ask that of Warren Buffett? He supports Obama so I guess tha would mean that the world's wealthiest man and biggest capitalist is a "socialist" and supports "socialist agendas."

Epic fail...

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abraxaf:

Uh, you do realize those Zogby state polls are online interactive polls? Not even worth talking about in any analytical context.

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sunnymi:

This is why Obama is doing so well in these 3 states:

"Sen. Obama is no longer the candidate of the young, the well-educated and minorities. He is now virtually the candidate of the 'all.' He is winning among all age groups in all three states. He wins women by more than 20 points in Ohio and Pennsylvania and is competitive among men in all three states. Whether voters went to college or not, they are voting for him.

"Perhaps the most remarkable development is that Obama is doing significantly better among white, born again evangelicals in Ohio and Pennsylvania than did Democratic nominee John Kerry four years ago. He also is winning Roman Catholics in those states, historically the key swing voter group in the electorate and synonymous here with the blue-collar vote.

"In Florida, Obama's margin over McCain is due mostly from stronger support from Hispanics than Kerry received."

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Cho:

We all know the Zogby Interactive state polls are worth nothing. The tracking poll isnt worth much either, but at least its based on regular phone surveys.

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abraxaf:

If based on his proposed tax structure Obama is a "socialist", then Eisenhower and Nixon were far, far bigger socialists. Yet I can't get a single Republican to concede or even address this point. Repubs, were Dwight Eisenhower and Richard Nixon socialists?

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sunnymi:


Boomshak: Criticizing (and thereby exaggerating) an opponent's policy position is completely different from smearing somebody's personality. This is what Obama was talking about when he said "there is no equivalency"

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bpd1069:

Boomshak your vote has been nullified by a 86 year old black woman...

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sunnymi:

Boomshak:
Which polls are tightening?
The only ones I see doing that are the ones which are under the assumption 1/2 the country is evangelical; using incorrect demographics; have McCain leading the youth vote.

All other polls are widening.

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johncoz:

boom,

Have you not noticed that your own team are falling apart at the seams. The trickle of Obamocons is turning into a flood, as the rats desert the sinking ship.

NRO's Corner is split between people making up ever more paranoid fantasies and those starting the planning for the next eight or so very hard years.

It's over, possum. Time to move on.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Just in case there is any confusion about where John McCain stood on the Bush tax cuts (the ones Obama wants to repeal) before he started his presidential campaign.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6F1IuoR-o24

John McCain, socialist.

@boomshak epic, epic, flail flail flail.

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boomshak:

@sunnymi,

So telling blatant lies about someone's policies is Ok? Hmmm. I get you.

Welcome to Obamaland Comrades!

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abraxaf:

National Review's The Corner basically resembles an Art Bell message board right now.

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vmval1:

@EVERYONE:

STOP responding to Boomshak with anything vaguely rational - it is USELESS

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boomshak:

THE MORNING OF NOVEMBER 5TH:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/10/long_national_nightmare.html

"At first, it wasn't evident that something extraordinary was brewing last evening. The polls in Virginia closed at 7 pm Eastern time, and that race was too close to call (no surprise there) since, even though Obama was favored in the Old Dominion State, George W. Bush had carried it by eight points both elections.

But by 8 pm, it began to become apparent that the blowout some in the media and the Obama camp had been predicting might not be materializing. New Hampshire -- where pre-election polls had seen Obama up 10 points -- was too close to call, a repeat of what had happened almost a year before in the primary between Obama and Clinton. Missouri and Ohio were also too close to call, with McCain showing unexpected strength among working-class and Catholic voters. Just as in 2004, Florida was showing unexpected strength for the Republicans, despite the housing crisis. Then Minnesota began to report and, in a huge surprise, that race, too, was too close to call.

Eventually, McCain won New Hampshire, Florida, Missouri, and Ohio. And he sealed his narrow victory in the Electoral College by winning out west in Colorado -- and Nevada for good measure.

"Colorado was the key," said one GOP official early this morning. "It wasn't pretty, but we always thought we could surprise there. Bush won it by almost five points last time. And an anti-affirmative action proposition on the ballot brought out our voters."

Obama conceded around noon today, promising that, though the revolution he promised had been temporarily derailed, "we are the future." Right now, however, the immediate future belongs to John McCain.

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vmval1:

@Boomshak:

Only 11 more sleeps till its all done Boom. You just hush now.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@boomshak

Hope you've got your bags packed boomdupe. Might be time for you to move to a banana republic somewhere.

The way I see it you can't move to Europe, they have way more socialist tendancies that we do here. Can't move to Russia cause they were once a communist country. I guess that takes a big chunk of SE Asia and China out of the mix. What about indo-China? Nope lots of muslims there.

How about Canada? Oh wait, no can do they've got socialized medicine. So does NZ, kiss them goodbye.

Argentina? Nope they too have socialist tendancies. I know boomfool you can move to Panama or mabye Costa Rica. What do ya' think, eh?

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boomshak:

DailyKos has the race O+10. DailyKos polls only 26% Republicans. Zogby claims to poll more Republicans than any other pollster. He has the race O+12.

How is this possible?

Something is seriously f*cked up here.

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johncoz:

@boomie

you forget the best bit: "Whoa, that was scary! Note to self: never listen to Limbaugh before bed time . . "

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vmval1:

We don't want him here in Australia.

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boomshak:

@OneAngryDwarf:

You are angry and short.

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OneAngryDwarf:

@boomdunce

Weren't you wondering why Obama hadn't opened up a double-digit lead in the national polls by now?

Epic, Epic, flail flail flail...

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Cho:

boom: It's easy to see how thats possible, Zogby has Obama up by 29(!) among independents. Whether thats close to the real numbers or not is anybody's guess.

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vmval1:

@Boom:

How's that extra earth shattering Obama October surprise coming along Boom?

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mysticlaker:

Boom Surge!!!!

Big ten polls...they suck as a pollster, but hey...Boom has the AP, we get these!

http://www.bigtenpoll.org/

Head-to-head results for individual states
Illinois Obama 61% McCain 32%
Indiana Obama 51% McCain 41%
Iowa Obama 52% McCain 39%
Michigan Obama 58% McCain 36%
Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%

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johncoz:

@vmval1

"We don't want him here in Australia."


He wouldn't even think about it. By his lights, Malcolm Turnbull is a communist. God knows what he think of Rudd?

Anyway, probably doesn't have a passport :-)

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boomshak:

COULD ZOGBY JUST BE BEGGING FOR ATTENTION?

Zogby knows that he is not well-respected in the polling community. Could this HUGE move to Obama sinply be a cry for attention?

Look at this line from his analysis today:

"It's obviously not over. Frankly, this could tighten up and then loosen up again before Election Day."

Not over yet? O+12 2 weeks out and it's not over? Is he trying to project to us that he is going to tighten this thing before election day?

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smith4pres23:

People-
Claiming that Obama is running a more clean-cut, truthful than McCain is just foolishness. McCain has said very little that is untruthful. His Ayers and Wright associations arent even questioned by the left wing media, but it really does cast doubts on the judgement of this man that we are probably about to elect. Obama has told lie after lie with a straight face to the American people for at least two years now. Almost everything he claims about McCain's policies are in some way fabricated. And the media isnt helping anything. Just yesterday Palin had an interview with CNN, and they claimed that some conservative was calling her stupid, ignorant, etc when in context it was clear that he was referring to the way the media was treating her. Frankly, this Zogby poll is a serious outlier at this point, and i wouldnt give it too much credence.
And to the guy who said that Obama best resembles the values of RONALD REAGAN, one of the best Americans ever, a man of high values and morals is an absolute insult to anything Reagan stood for. but i have to go. so good luck boom ha

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MNLatteLiberal:

the weirdest thing about Zogby is that his polls don't add up to an integer (from another thread :)

Sorry, a bit off topic now

OneAngryDwarf:
"I am very interested in your take on the Bachmann/Powell thing, hopefully there won't be any "posting problems" today and you can enlighten me because I think that we have finally seen O open a double-digit lead and I'd like to nail down a cause."

I have very little time before work, but in short - I think these numbers moving up in the last 48 hours are reflecting the Powell endorsement. Earlier when we talked closer the weekend it would have been too early for the Sunday statement to kick in - it was the natural organic breathing in the polls, imho.

Bachmann HAS been very visible since she got on Sarah's so-called "truth squad". She's been all over: Larry King (2x, afair), Hardball, CNN panels (2-3x when Carville chewed her a new one), etc. But this visibility to us, the hardcore news junkies. The general America has not tasted her until last Friday, and even then, I'd submit to you most of the USA missed it STILL.

Now we get to the demo of just who it is who is still undecided in this 12th hour of one of the most clear-cut elections, no matter what side of the R/D fence you are on. How can there STILL be undecideds when it comes to OJ (sorry to drudge him up). These undecideds are a very special demo, these are not folks who follow the news for the most part. I see them at work every day, I see them in the gym, I talk to them when I door knock. I am mystified, but my puzzlement does not make them go away: they ARE the undecideds. These are the ones on our canvassing list.

Some of them saw Bachmann and are outraged. Others have different priorities. So, I don't think we could've attributed much, if any of the early uptick Mon+Tue to the Bachmann effect. IMHO. Natural polling effect to over contracting earlier.


"BTW how cool is it that the RNC pulled Bachmann's ad funding? Her campaign was a train wreck before and now she's on life support with even her own people standing by to pull the plug. Couldn't happen to a nicer wingnut."

I know, and I still pinch myself to see it's true. Acc. to what I read they won't even give her the promised $$ allocated for the TV ads that she has been running. Having said that, I've seen Elwyn's ad and it's very positive. And I believe, he's got to EXPOSE her, to paint her against Powell's comments on her. I hear there is a DCCC ad ready to go on that, but I have yet to see it. And I watch A LOT of news. :)

Finally, her money has been re-channeled to Paulson/Ashwin Media race in MN CD3(?). Paulson presided over the state Republicans. Ashwyn is a first timer, who served in Iraq and got a ton of money from the Indian group. Indians have raised hundreds of millions, if not more, to help push some representation at the top level they have been lacking thus far. They have given Media a nice chunk, so that we've been seeing his ads ever since the State Dem Convension in early June. Paulson's ads are very few. And this is a very unusual dynamic for the established Republican. The race is tight, within MOE. If the Bachmann earmarks go to Paulson, it is not good news for Media. On the other hand, we have a week and a half late, and Media's funds are essentially bottomless.

Here are the news from Lake Woebegone.
Have a great day and sorry for the long off-topic post.

____________________

vmval1:

I think Boomshak is John Howard's love child.

____________________

abraxaf:

McCain has said very little that is untruthful.

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@boomshak

Actually I'm 6'5". Damn good looking too.

What is your next prediction boomcollapse? Meteor shower takes out polling locations in every battleground state? Obama discovered in Thailand with a small boy, Gary Glitter and a pound of cocaine? What?

____________________

boomshak:

Hitler was very popular
Hitler was going to save his country
Hitler was a candidate of change
Hitler was a greet orator
Hitler was cheered by hundreds of thousands at his speeches
Hitler was loved by the German people
Hitler won in a landslide

Hitler destroyed German

____________________

DTM:

To our international friends:

I firmly believe that the xenophobia displayed by many in the GOP has been part of their undoing, and that most Americans do in fact want to have friendly relations with the world. In that sense, while I agree Obama would help transform America's global image, I also think he would simply be returning America to its natural instincts.

On the polling:

The most obvious thing that is different this year is the sheer number of polls, and that alone helps account for the observed spread in results. But also, as many have noted, there are many new challenges for pollsters this year, from dealing with changes in the nature of the electorate, to increased cell-phone-only percentages, to increases in early voting, and so on.

So, I do think it is a tough year for polling. But the good news is that places like Pollster and 538 are giving us excellent commentary and increasingly sophisticated tools to sort through these issues.

____________________

abraxaf:

Boomshak, did you just admit Obama's going to win in a landslide? This is a landmark moment.

____________________

boomshack:

oh, and by the way, all you moonbats, this morning I heard back from McCain people, and they promised me that McCain will use at least TWO of my questions to NAIL Obama during their next debate!

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@MN

How cool was that, awesome update. Thanks man!

____________________

paradski:

Yippie!

Michigan Big10 Battleground Obama 58, McCain 36 Obama +22
Iowa Big10 Battleground Obama 52, McCain 39 Obama +13
Indiana Big10 Battleground McCain 41, Obama 51 Obama +10
Illinois Big10 Battleground Obama 61, McCain 32 Obama +29

____________________

abraxaf:

Indiana +10 Obama? Holy crap.

____________________

southern angler:

1

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@paradski

Indiana Big10 Battleground McCain 41, Obama 51 Obama +10

Doesn't this actually mean McCain +10?

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

Oops read it wrong. Sorry.

____________________

johncoz:

@MNLatteLiberal

Interesting stuff. I might just add an observation from watching many elections in many different countries.

When a candidate acquires the stench of death then every incident, however remote (eg Bachmann), becomes a major problem. Meanwhile, your opponent seems to grow a teflon coating, and no matter how much **** you sling, nothing sticks.

So both Powell and Bachmann have been far more devastating than might have been the case in a closer race. Of all people, Americans hate losers, and McCain is looking for all the world like a loser.

____________________

thomas/germany:

My poll of the day:

Illinois Obama 61% McCain 32%

I love 60+ polls for Obama.
I hope he wins at least 1 - 2 states with 60+
(Illinois, Massachusets).

____________________

paradski:

@dwarf

Yeah McCain and Obama are reversed on that one.

here's the table from big10...


The new Big Ten poll shows Obama ahead in every Big Ten state, including Indiana, where McCain held a slight edge in September, and Ohio and Pennsylvania, where last month’s poll results showed the two candidates in a dead heat.

Head-to-head results for individual states
Illinois Obama 61% McCain 32%
Indiana Obama 51% McCain 41%
Iowa Obama 52% McCain 39%
Michigan Obama 58% McCain 36%
Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@johncoz

That is an interesting observation. It was said that Ronald Reagan was "the teflon man" and I had never thought about it in those terms. It is interesting that winning cures all. At least in American politics.

As for the Bachmann incident did anyone else get the feeling the Matthews was channeling Edward R. Murrow and just letting her hang herself with her idiocy? I recently went and tried to find the "See It Now" interview with McCarthy where he lost his credibility but so far I've been unable to track it down.

It would be interesting to compare and contrast the two interviews to determine which one was more effective at bringing out the "inner moron" of the contestant.

____________________

carl29:

Good morning guys :-)

____________________

DTM:

Just an idle thought on Hitler:

Of course it is a silly comparison. But one might nonetheless note that it wasn't Hitler's popularity per se that led Germany to ruin. It was rather Hitler pushing Germany into war with most of the rest of the world that led Germany to ruin. And on the moral front, his greatest crime was the attempted extermination of those he deemed internal enemies, most famously Jews, but also gay people, Communists, and so forth.

Now to be clear, I don't think John McCain is Hitler or the modern GOP is the Nazi Party. But I do think it is highly ironic when their supporters compare Obama to Hitler on the basis of popularity, completely ignoring the actual substance of what Hitler believed and did.

____________________

johncoz:

Boom,

Hitler?? I'm kinda lost for words.

btw, have you noticed your comedy twin (boomshack) has joined us?

____________________

thomas/germany:

"boomshak:

Hitler was very popular
Hitler was going to save his country
Hitler was a candidate of change
Hitler was a greet orator
Hitler was cheered by hundreds of thousands at his speeches
Hitler was loved by the German people
Hitler won in a landslide

Hitler destroyed German"

Complete false! Misled by Nazi-Propaganda!

Hitler was not elected into office 1933.
In the last "free" election Nov 6 1932 Hitlers party NSDAP reached 33,6 %. I do not believe that 33,6 % is a landslide!

Hitler never was "very popular". As I mentioned before 2/3 of the Germans voted not for him when they could decide without pressure.

During the war 5.470.000 Germans lost their life. My aunt was bombed to death 1943. Only a small minority of Germans loved this dictator.


____________________

Ryan in MO:

Reposting from last night when no-one was here.

"Ryan in MO:

Obama will seal the deal next Wednesday night. Already ahead with the early voting, his message that night will run the airways for the next week. However, I hope nothing comes to fruition here, but in the likely chance he is elected, I think he will need to be surrounded by unheard of security. A lot of wacko's will probably try to make sure he doesn't make it into office. If for some horrific reason someone is successful, who becomes president-elect? Biden (order of succesion?) Clinton (runner-up in primaries?) McCain (runner-up in election?) This country would probably go to hell in that event. Any answers, thoughts, opinions?"

____________________

DTM:

On Teflon candidates:

Good polling helps, but I also wouldn't underestimate the importance of likeability. Generally in Presidential elections, the candidate who people find the most optimistic, sympathetic, and generally likeable is the one who wins.

____________________

thomas/germany:

"boomshak:

Hitler was very popular
Hitler was going to save his country
Hitler was a candidate of change
Hitler was a greet orator
Hitler was cheered by hundreds of thousands at his speeches
Hitler was loved by the German people
Hitler won in a landslide

Hitler destroyed German"

Complete false! Misled by Nazi-Propaganda!

Hitler was not elected into office 1933.
In the last "free" election Nov 6 1932 Hitlers party NSDAP reached 33,6 %. I do not believe that 33,6 % is a landslide!

Hitler never was "very popular". As I mentioned before 2/3 of the Germans voted not for him when they could decide without pressure.

During the war 5.470.000 Germans lost their life. My aunt was bombed to death 1943 in Hamburg. Only a small minority of Germans loved this dictator.


____________________

Napoleon Complex:

Bush was very popular
Bush going to save his country
Bush was a candidate of change
Bush was a regular guy
Bush was cheered by hundreds of thousands at his speeches
Bush was loved by the American people
Bush stole an election

Bush destroyed America

Fail.

____________________

s.b.:

Zogby's playing funny games again, like he did when he sampled twice as many peopl ein San Francisco as Los Angeles for his California primary poll and was only off by 22%. His brother works for Obama's campaign. He doesn't skew polls with demographics, he does it with geography.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@DTM

Don't forget tall. I saw something the other day that the taller candidate in a POTUS election almost always wins.

____________________

carl29:

I think that "likeability" is a huge factor in US politics. I read somewhere that the candidate who people said won the debate, most of the time doesn't win the election; however, the candidate who people rate as more "likeable" almost always wins, I can't remember an exception.

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/10/08/the-likability-factor.aspx

____________________

deeznutsrepubs:

Designer suits from Neiman Marcus - $75,062

Manolo Blahniks and "accessories" from Saks Fifth Avenue - $49,425.74

Designer fashion items from Bloomingdale's - $5,102


Making sure a mentally handicapped, bat-**** crazy governor from Alaska never gets anywhere NEAR the White House - PRICELESS!

____________________

boomshak:

GWU/BATTLEGROUND OUT:

Obama: 44
McCain: 42
Undecided: 13

Race remains at 2 points. It would appear GWU/Battleground disagrees with Zogby and DailyKos.

____________________

DTM:

@Ryan in MO

Here is an article that touches on your question. Unfortunately, it is not particularly comforting:

http://www.slate.com/?id=91839

But under the circumstances (a Democratic Congress), I believe it would end up being Biden: I suspect the Electors would be encourage to vote as per the election, and Congress would certify the result, and the order of succession would result in President Biden.

____________________

carl29:

Now, GWU/Battleground is your favorite? What happened to Ras'? I see :-)

____________________

boomshak:

@carl29:

My prediction is that there will be 3 major polls within the MOE by today. We already have 2: GWU and AP.

I have a sense based upon the big move yesterday, that IBD/TIPP may go there today. I also sense that Gallup's LV's may tighten as well as their poll seems to always make momentum moves up and down and it dropped 2 points yesterday.

So we have 2 clear groups shaping up - the BLOWOUT GROUP and the HORSERACE GROUP.

I expect everyone to tighten one way or the other in the next week and no one wants to miss by 10 points come election day.

____________________

DTM:

@OneAngryDwarf

Indeed, although Kerry versus Bush was a recent test of height versus likeability, and likeability won.

And I think Kerry is instructive for another reason. The likeability factor is relevant directly, but also relevant insofar as it effectively protects candidates from negative attacks (the "Teflon" factor). To summarize a complex issue, voters tend to resent those who attack candidates they like, so attacking likeable candidates often backfires. Unfortunately, Kerry did not have that going for him, and that more than anything else may explain why he was successfully "swiftboated".

____________________

bmrKY:

"boomshak:
@carl29:

My prediction is that there will be 3 major polls within the MOE by today."

You suck. Oh my God do you suck.

Maybe you can get the AP to poll some more evangelicals to make you feel better? Ah, who am I kidding, Obama's even winning in the crazy evangelical poll, too.

____________________

carl29:

AP poll was taken from Thursday to Sunday of last week, if you want to take that as the law of the land, current data, so it be.

About GWU/Battleground, I still remember, and let me look for it, when you used to trash battleground for showing Obama way ahead. It really makes me laugh how a poll becames the law of the land when it shows a rosier picture for your guy but becomes trash when it is a sad picture.

Don't worry boomy we already know what your standard with polls is: If you like the numbers, it is a good poll. If you don't like the numbers is just plain trash. See?

____________________

bmrKY:

"moonbat_boom****:

So we have 2 clear groups shaping up - the BLOWOUT GROUP and the HORSERACE GROUP."


You left out the 3rd group, comprised of people who think that you don't have a friggin' clue about anything relating to polling.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@DTM

That was good insightful analysis. Thanks I feel like I've learned something today.

____________________

mandalorianarmy:

The big point deviation is from all of these polls is from their likely voter models.

If you look at internals on the ones that provide it, the Registered Vote totals all have Obama up by about 8 - 12 points.

The question is, how many of the new voters (because likely voter models exclude most new voters) stay at home? I don't think enough to swing this election for McCain.

____________________

southern angler:

It’s now obvious that the polls reflect a high degree of propaganda from left. My guess is that Obama followers, who vote by emotion, need that extra emotional support the polls give them. It keeps their minds off the real world issues while giving them some sort of false validity with their choice. Conservatives are not intimidated or discouraged by theses polls, it only emboldens us. Boomshak is proof positive.

I still think McCain is going to knock Osama’s lights out Nov. 4.

In the unlikely scenario Obama does win, I have a reality check for all of you.

First of all historically speaking Osama’s economic policy does have a chance for success. Been there done that, if you will. Failure is assured it’s only a matter of when not if. So your young lives are really going to suck then. No job, no car, no independence just for starters. Ouch.

Secondly the racial divides in the country will deepen. As it stands right now whites are already holding blacks in contempt for trying to give our country away to a socialist, who practices black liberation religion, weather you know it or not. This will be a lot worse if Obama is actually elected. I understand why blacks would want another black in office, but this isn’t going to be a positive change for blacks. On Nov 5 blacks will still be black and that’s the way the world works period. No one man can change this by himself. Only blacks can raise their social standing, not Obama.
I know it must seem exciting for blacks to imagine some sort of magical transformation in social status, but it not going to happen. Either way the election turns out this racial divide deepen simply because blacks voted on a racial bias and not what’s best for our country. Whites now know where blacks stand, and apparently it’s not with our country best interest.

Anyway, stop dwelling on these ridiculous polls, you’re just spinning your wheels. Get out and be productive.

____________________

tjacobits:

Reagan was very popular
Reagan was going to restore his country to greatness
Reagan was a candidate of change
Reagan was a great orator and marginal actor
Reagan was cheered by hundreds of thousands at his speeches
Reagan was loved by the American people
Reagan won in a landslide

Reagan destroyed America with trillion dollar deficits, union busting, deregulation, and a lie called trickle down instead of a real economic plan.

____________________

smith4pres23:

Reagan lowered unemployment, drastically stifled inflation, boosted our military and kept us safe, and gave hard-working people what they deserve. And he did that while havin to clean up Carter's mess at the same time.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

a couple of minutes before a meeting, fwiw.

I hop around Europe on business all the time (4x a year for a 2-3 week clip each time). The sentiment after the 2000 election was: "poor Americans, you had your election STOLEN from you, like we have had here so many times in ____" [insert a country from Eastern/Central Europe].

After 2004 it was very much: "what's wrong with you people? Have you learned NOTHING?"

Well, I think it took a sleeping giant 6 years to wake up, but she is awake. And Bachmann's comments was the snooze button going off for the heavy sleepers. Still, some remain asleep, but the country is wide awake.

The toughest thing about democracy is to break through all the inertia. But now we are rolling!

PS: Boom's Hitler analogy is just precious. I wonder if boomshak ever heard of Godwin's Law? Boom, here's a handy link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwins_law
enjoy.

____________________

greenpeace:

To imagine1:
Liar. Poll is from 10/16-21.

____________________

mm:

Quinnipiac has new polls out today.
Ohio Obama +14, FL Obama +5
Pennsylvania Obama +13 Mcsame is toast

____________________

southern angler:

sorry type "Obama's ecomnomic policy does NOT have a chance for success"

____________________

mm:

It seems like there will be the reverse Bradley effect in this election for Obama

____________________

mm:

It seems like there will be a reverse Bradley effect in this election for Obama

____________________

southern angler:

Smith4pres.
You are absolutely right.

____________________

smith4pres23:

@southern angler
yeah. i dont do much commenting on this site. but when these loony liberal windbags make comments like that which completely contort the entire situation, its just sickening

____________________

Lardo:

The latest Big Ten Battleground Poll shows Sen. Barack Obama with a ten point national lead over Sen. John McCain, 52% to 42%. In the individual midwestern states, Obama also has huge leads.

Illinois: Obama 61%, McCain 32%

Indiana: Obama 51%, McCain 41%

Iowa: Obama 52%, McCain 39%

Ohio: Obama 53%, McCain 41%

Michigan: Obama 58%, McCain 36%

Minnesota: Obama 57%, McCain 38%

Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, McCain 41%

Wisconsin: Obama 53%, McCain 40%

Said pollster Charles Franklin: "In September, we saw virtually the entire Big Ten as a battleground. Now Obama is clearly winning the Big Ten battleground. The dominance of the economy as a top issue for voters is the overwhelming story."

____________________

decided:

Rasmussen +7 for Barry

____________________

DTM:

Just an idle thought: if electing Obama causes a race-related rift, I don't think it will be between white people and black people. Rather, I think it will be between the majority of white people who are ready to move on to a new chapter in American race relations, and the small minority of white people who are not.

____________________

mm:

Rassmusen Obama 52 Mcsame 45

____________________

Steve_OH:

@sunnymi:

"Remember OH does not have early voting after Oct 6th when the registration ended."

That's not true. Early voting is open until at least Friday, 31 Oct. Most early voting locations will be open on 1 Nov as well, and a couple even on 2 Nov.

See http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/mapsEV.aspx?page=361

____________________

AtlantaBill:

@Boomshak

Honestly Boom I don't know what makes people like you tick. McCain's prescription for the country is almost identical to what Bush has given us these past 8 years. Republicans hate government and it should not be a surprise to anyone that they do a piss-poor job at governing. God help us (you included) if McCain should somehow win this race. Republican policy took us from budget surpluses to the disastrous debt level being left by this terrible bush administration. If you've prospered over the past 8 years go right ahead and vote for bush3 but be prepared to watch the country descend further toward becoming a 3rd world nation.

I have a younger brother (retired officer from AF) and he confessed to me a few days ago that he was a republican. Needless to say, I can never again feel the closeness we once had. I regard him to be equally as sick as you and the other air-heads that has put these rethug jerks in power. Shame on friends, family, and internet goons that support these fascists.

____________________

IMind:

@boom: You're quoting yesterdays Battleground... today is Obama +4. There's a trend happening it and isn't good for "your guy."

____________________

Observer:

It's at times like this I put aside those polls where Zogby did better than other pollsters and recall his poll giving an Obama win by 10% in the California Primary, an error of about 20% I think.

Yes, Zogby might be right. But a lot of pollsters, on current figures, are very wrong. We just don't know which ones.

For a long time I have been of the view that the state polls are all very well but the national polls probably give a better guide to what will happen. An Obama lead of 3% on November 4 will give him a comfortable win. But a lead of 3% in eve of election polls with a similar or greater number of undecideds is not the same thing and leaves the result in doubt.

Obama lead currently averages about 5 - 7% I think. I still see a lead down to 3% as quite possible. However for this to be feasible then it really needs McCain to be doing a little better than that in at least a couple of the trackers. Best trackers for McCain at the moment are I think 4% so still a lot of work to do.

____________________

Mister H:

From Boomshak:

"Hitler was very popular
Hitler was going to save his country
Hitler was a candidate of change
Hitler was a greet orator
Hitler was cheered by hundreds of thousands at his speeches
Hitler was loved by the German people
Hitler won in a landslide

Hitler destroyed German


Wow. Do you honestly have any class left, Boomshak? Obama is now Hitler?

Look....I don't like President Bush. I voted against him the past two times. And I was seriously bummed when he won the elections. But even I do not think it's appropriate to compare him to Hitler, even though many of his tactics would put him closer to that man than Obama could ever be.

Bush may be an idiot in my opinion.....but he's OUR idiot.

For you to compare Obama, or any president or presidential candidate for that matter, to one of the most hated, despicable human beings to ever live on the planet is just classless and pathetic.

____________________

Paul:

Zogby 10-23 internals:

Dems O 86.4 - M 9.4
Reps M 81.0 - O 11.4
Inds O 58.6, M 28.8
Already voted O 59.4, M 36.6
Males O 47.8, M 42.4
Females 56.3, M 38.3
Whites M 47.1, O 44.7
Hisp O 64.8, M 30.6
AA O 92.7, M 2.6
Liberals O 87.0, M 6.8
Moderates O 61.4, M 34.5
Cons M 69.5, O 20.8

____________________



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