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Wow! While I don't think there will be an 11-point spread on Election Day, this is definitely an encouraging result. If this is anywhere near accurate, then McCain is toast.

11 sounds good, but considering its two point tighter.. meh

Looking back on this poll from past election cycles, it is fairly accuracte with a fail rating of less than 3. Maybe they are using more cell phone only voters?

Let's not get cocky.

This will be brutally fought to the end.

Oh yeah.. and RCP just changed PA to light blue.

Nice poll, I like it.

Fox News Poll Cooking The Books! (betcha you won't see that on Drudge)
Go to RCP and click on the Fox News poll from last week (sept.22). Look at the Dem/Rep breakdown at the beginning of the poll. Then click on the one listed today and check on the Dem/Rep breakdown. What a joke!

And for the already-voted, it was Obama 55 - McCain 35.

Hopefully we can REALLY get back to an intelligent and civil dialogue now...

So I think as usual we're seeing Obama with a minimum of +3 and a maximum of +11... probably putting the real number around +7. I think that sounds about right.

@Rippleeffect
Yeah with a 9.5 rcp lead for Obama I call crap on that they didnt even had the new Mulhberg poll for Today!!!

Anyone know when any new SurveyUSA polls are coming out? (Or where else to get updated early-voting data)?

I'm really interested to see the polling starting from today. I'm betting between the Obamercial and the Obama-Clinton rally yesterday, there's at least a small bounce.

They hit both cell phones and land lines. The weighting is fairly accurate, also.

Registered Voters, not likely.

Republicans 387 (31.4%)
Democrats 478 (38.7%)
Independents 369 (29.9%)

If you look at 11 days ago (October 19) and 11 days before that (October 8) and 11 days before that (September 27) on RCP's General Election page - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html - you will see that the polls do this little contraction (kind of like labor contractions in a pregnancy) ... I believe we will see the polls pop back again either at the end of tomorrow's averaging or Saturday's based upon the trends.

Now, I am not fully saying that Obama will get a +7 to +9 spread on E-day - but I think we shouldn't be surprised if it ends up over a 6 point spread.

Keep in mind also that the networks thrive on a horserace. CNN and Fox, in particular, love to cherry pick their polls to make it look closer. I've seen that in the last two election cycles with these guys.

(LV), with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.
Democrat LV n=379, ±5; Republican LV n=364, ±5; independent LV n=146, ±8
Obama supporters LV n=439, ±5; McCain supporters LV n=405, ±5

That is the Fox news interal numbers....

379D 364R 146I

WoW fox needs to learn how to poll.

Kind of curious that RCP changed PA to light blue. The Mason-Dixon 4 pt PA poll is getting a lot of air time tonight despite the fact that two other polls for the same time period were O+11 and O+12. I think a four point spread is OK so the Obama camp doesn't get complacent in PA, but I just don't believe it at this point.

NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/27 - 10/28 625 LV 4.0 47 43 Obama +4
Morning Call 10/24 - 10/28 610 LV 4.0 53 42 Obama +11
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 768 LV 3.5 55 43 Obama +12
Rasmussen 10/27 - 10/27 500 LV 4.5 53 46 Obama +7
Marist 10/26 - 10/27 713 LV 4.0 55 41 Obama +14
InAdv/PollPosition 10/26 - 10/26 588 LV 3.8 51 42 Obama +9

Im not sure what happened, but adding this poll to the RCP average dropped the average by .4 % Im still trying to figure out which poll they replaced it with to see this drop. Also they changed the internals dramatically on the FOX News poll from their previous poll. Im not sure how that makes any sense, statistically wise or ethically wise.

It's unfortunate Mark had to put us in time out, but I certainly sympathize.

Some interesting nuggets in this poll: 46% believe McCain will raise their taxes, compared with 50% who believe Obama will do so. I guess Joe the Plumber isn't doing the trick.

Also, more people (70%) believe Obama will be able to work across the aisle than believe McCain will be bipartisan (66%).

Then there's the enthusiasm gap: 49% of Obama voters are "excited" about the prospect of his election, compared with just 22% of McCain voters who feel similarly about their candidate.

As one of the "excited" Obama supporters, I'm going to spend the weekend knocking on doors in my "real Virginia" community. The polls be damned.

What is it with the intelligent and civil prerequisite to commenting? Being a man of humble I.Q. I object to the discriminatory under current running through pollster.com. Is there no room for the dumb and angry? Is there no room for the crass and uneducated? Stand up with me fellow idiots, stand up!

The already voted number is really encouraging. Is there any way to tell how the military vote is going?

@Thatcher

What might be the reason for such a cycle? Or is it just random coincidence, on which we try to impose order (like seeing a face in a tortilla)?

Here's the final poll from CBS NY TImes in 2004: Right on the money.

The race for the White House heads into its final two days very close in the nationwide popular vote, and nearly the same as it was two weeks ago. President George W. Bush holds a three-point lead over Senator John Kerry among likely voters, an edge within this poll's margin of error.

The already voted number is really encouraging. Is there any way to tell how the military vote is going?

Fox should be polling more Dems and More Ind in there polls. I cant believe they put this stuff on TV and sell it has "polls are closeing"

That is crap.

I will say this the internals for Obama on this CBS poll look good. He is getting a ton of Ind.

"Im still trying to figure out which poll they replaced it with to see this drop."

It was the Pew poll (+15 for Obama). Curses. They should have ditched one of the stupid IBD or GWU ones.

@shannon, Dallas Texas

No, most likely its heavy for McCain

The PA O+4 poll is fine. Yeah, it's an outlier but it was commissioned by NBC so it will motivate Pennsylvanians to go out and vote, securing an Obama victory of 7-9 points, where the actual margin probably stands.

So, with the three stand-alone national polls today, it seems that Obama averages out to +6. That's roughly in line with the trackers, where there was statistically not significant movement towards Obama today...

The state polls look fine. CNN even showed Obama leading McCain in GA with RV (behind using the LV model, though).

Overall, a good day for Obama.

So how much has Fox added to the republican sample in terms of percentage from the older polls and the new polls? Anyone know?

Mysticlaker posted this interesting little nugget in another forum. I thought I would pass it along.

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl103008tppoll.1644da2c1.html

@Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

From previous polls (can't remeber from where though) from last week, it was McCain +70% or so.

No numbers beyond that though.

Nate Silver has a great post at fivethirtyeight in which IBD/TIPP's pollster (TechnoMetrica) tries to explain away the crazy numbers for 18-24s that had us all baffled last week:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/anatomy-of-polling-disaster.html

By the way, the reason McCain is so obsessed with PA can be found in the 538 scenario analysis. Obama's chances of winning if he loses OH and FL: 73.7%. Obama's chances of winning if he loses OH, FL, and PA: 3.5%.

I'm wondering if those figures have been re-run in the last few days. RCP's state poll averages show that the 11 (!) most competitive states, and 13 of the 15 most competitive states, were part of the Bush 2004 win.

That said, I still don't buy the NBC Penn. poll from this morning. Something feels weird with the undecided %. Has anyone looked into the LV screen, especially in comparison to the earlier NBC poll there?

Hey...I think RCP screwed up. The note that PA is a +5.9 average for Obama and changed it to light blue (from dark blue).
BUT...the average shown in RCP's data is +9.5...NOT +5.9.
Is someone over there dyslexic?

@m913:

I haven't done a complete analysis - but I do believe it has to do with the large number of trackers and the time-span between stand-alone national polls.

Also, Rasmussen is known to tightened near the beginning of a week and spread near the end - while Gallup is the opposite I think we see the convergence of these at varying points during the time span.

Why does everyone get so upset when a pole shows Obama up less than 5? What is so offensive about a poll that you are so certain is wrong in the first place?

pbunch.

I agree, i just think they under sold Obama's numbers. I know PA(State I live in) will go for Obama.

Even Obama Camp manager said that you got McCains numbers right but Obama is much higher.

I'm disappointed in RCP, as they claim not to post party affiliated polls this close to election...I don't see how Fox News can be non-partisan...

I'm another one that doesn't get the RCP PA map. Are they giving NBC / Mason that much weight (and I thought they didn't weigh polls). Nate rates them at 0.4 or something. What gives?

I have a sneaking suspicion about what's going to happen in PA with the McCain camp. They seemed all too excited about that Todd girl and the backwards B... almost like they were looking for something more than just a news cycle spin. Maybe this is part of the story they will try to build on the 5th.

Or I'm just paranoid.

I must say, I'm rather happy that the comments will go back to commenting on polls rather than people intelligence levels...

@Redlaw

1. We want Obama to win
2. We want Obama to win
3. We want polls interals not be full of BS.
4. We want Obama to win

Also we have nothing else to talk about, reasure ourselves.

I wonder if Boom got banned for life?

Modeling Voter Supression; Obama still wins

McCain needs 409,239 votes in seven states to win the election, whereas John Kerry needed 118,599 votes in Ohio

@Disco Stu

RCP moved the goalposts, I think. A bunch of states more than six and less than ten percent diff. are now leaners.

@Thatcher

But an 11-day cycle would not match up with any weekly variation. There may be some underlying harmonic uber-cycle, but I lean toward just randomness.

Interesting thing about the Fox poll was it had McCain at 44, which is very consistent with most other polls. Thing still seem to remain relatively stable, Obama will probably win with close to 53%.

deeproy,

YOU ARE PARANOID like us all.

I think the enthusiasm gap numbers on this poll are astounding.

BUT an interesting thing I noticed was they asked the question whether you would be excited, optimistic, concerned or scared if Obama/McCain were elected. And of the people who VOTED FOR Obama, 1% said they would be "scared" if he were elected. Boy, we do just have some nutbars in the electorate...

@pbcrunch

I second that. Not sure how it all got so out of control in here. I missed the exchange that brought all of this on but it seems that something like this was a long time in coming.

Also if that poll mysticlaker posted earlier is correct:

LA
O - 40%
M - 43%

very small sample size (500 RV) so it isn't wonderfully accurate but it sure does look good if you are an Obama fan.

First time commenter here but I have been watching this site regularly for a long time. It seems like Obama's lead has been averaging about 7 for quite a while, with small peaks and valleys. Not sure the infomercial and Clinton rally will make much of a difference at this point.Undecideds will probably flock home to McCain and the gap will probably close to about 5 pts, is my guess. This particular number (11 pts) seems to be too big a spread. I think they forgot to poll JOE THE PLUMBER. :)

None of the polling sites are listing the Morning Call PA tracker, which has Obama up 13.

http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/Release_10_29.pdf

That puts PA's average for today at 9.6. That't not tightening...

Ladies/Gentlemen,

Are you kidding? The national results are indicating a slight closing. There is no acceleration. It could reverse a bit or decline a bit from day to day. The effect, if any, of Obama's infomercial last night won't begin to show till tomorrow morning. Finally, the state results, particularly the state results that matter, are not moving in any important way at all, except in those cases where they are moving in Obama's direction. Stop panicking Obamites and get the vote out. Vote vote vote. Early early early. Often Often Often.

OneAngryDwarf,

Not a fan of the 500 RV polls.

@Shannon,Dallas,Texas

internals for already voted look great. lets hope the dems in NC are voting like this!

Neither am I but it is fun to pretend.

LOL. Foxnews is a joke. They had a 2% party ID variance. NO CHANCE!

Check out this hot off the presses poll from LOUISIANA: MCCAIN 43 OBAMA 40.

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl103008tppoll.1644da2c1.html

Hello guys!!!! Good to be back :-)

Boris

We are not worried, and I cant vote untill the 4th. I live in PA.

@OneAngryDwarf:

I saw that exchange (or at least read the aftermath). I must say I wasn't that stunned because the level of discourse had been slowly descending to that level for weeks but, on afterthought, if I had come to this site for the first time yesterday, I would have been STUNNED by the bile being spewed back and forth. And, yes, there was one person largely responsible for the descent and I'm glad he's banned.

Back to campaign observations, though: I find it interesting that Palin and McCain are back to arguing about national security. They didn't mention Syria (the obvious national security story in the news today), so maybe they're hoping that a bin Laden video will show up in the next few days... just find it interesting...

I'm not a fan of any RV poll period. Dems have always have a big advantage in RVs, but when it comes time to vote, the Reps get more voters ot the polls. The LV polls are much better. Not sure about these new "expanded" LV polls, they seem to favor Obama by 2-3 pts over the traditional LV polls.

"redlaw:
Why does everyone get so upset when a pole shows Obama up less than 5? What is so offensive about a poll that you are so certain is wrong in the first place?"

We are insecure :-) In general us liberals are not very sued to having strong candidates who SMASH righties in the polls and squash them with good campaigning like the way Obama is doing so we are a bit nervous.
Also dont forget despite tens of articles written about extinction of bradley effect, Racism as usual is last hope of all the right and that is enough to make you nervous in places like PA...

deeproy

After 2000 and 2004, whatever paranoia you might be feeling is understandable.

I keep going back to the Charlie Brown football model. No matter how sure I am that Barack has established a solid enough lead, I won't believe it until I see indisputable results on Nov. 4, 5, 6...

I've ranted before about how smooth and efficient Oregon's vote by mail system is, and I when I see long lines of voters in FL, for instance, I get worried.

Hang on, and BTW, are you "a" deep roy or "the" deep roy? Feel free not to answer.

Obama008:;
You live in PA?
So what is your feeling, do we have it in the bag or what?

My favorite parts of the Fox poll, aside from the party ID, questions 36 and 37:

36. Do you think most national media outlets are trying to push the election outcome in Barack Obama's favor or are they trying to give an honest assessment of the election?

37. Do you think most pollsters who conduct research on behalf of national media outlets are trying to push the election outcome in Barack Obama's favor by making it look like he has a larger lead than he really does, or are they trying to give an honest assessment of the election?

Watching MSNBC tonight and CNN you'd think the McCain surge is ON. Yet today CBS O + 11, Gallop up to +7 (5 traditional), Rasmussen UP to 5, Zogby up to +7, IBD up to 4, GWU stayed the same at 3 with their low party ID, Fox moved down after lowering party ID to +2 DEM (Mhmmmm) (and NO mention of it in their thread..woops, new GREAT state polls. LOUISIANA in play, AZ in play, MT close, the list goes on. 1 outlier in PA... more PA polls today 10+.

Tightening? ROFL

If nothing else, this poll will enter the news cycle and take media time away from McCain's message (whatever that is on a day-to-day basis).

I agree that the numbers will tighten a bit nationally, but how are the Republicans going to close all the gaps? Do they have a compelling message for people to hang on to?

@ Mark -
Good call on the time out. It was getting nuts.
@ Louisiana potentially going blue :
African American turnout in Georgia and Louisiana is breaking all records! Wouldn't that be the icing on the cake!

@Publius

Actually I'm waiting for the Obama "ad push" where he just starts blasting the airwaves. I assumed it was going to start last night with the Obamamercial, the late night rally with Clinton and then the appearance on the Daily Show.

I figured we'd have the equivalent of Obama TV from now till the 4th. We'll see how it plays out.

When I look at the Early voting numbers, I wonder why there are sometimes only numbers in some counties available?

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Does it mean that you can only vote early in these counties and not in the whole state (that would explain the big difference of party id voters in favour of the dems in Louisiana and the polls which do not predict a close race but a big win for GOP) or the other counties do not report their numbers?

Yeah, where has boomshak been all day? You'd think he'd be all over the PA +4 poll and the (LOL) Daily Kos +5 tracker.

Political Junki

PA is in the bag, Also I live in the area of the state that make this state Blue or Red. The area outside of Philly and it is going for Obama big time.

I know a Republians who are going to vote for a Dem for the first time ever.

BarackO'Clinton:
Boom has been banned :-(

@BarackO'Clinton

You are joking about boomshak right?

Interesting RCP is moving the goal posts. Now there map is light blue unless you have a 10% average lead, that is why some states went to light blue. WHO CARES. LOL So PA is 9.2 OH NO!

No he is banned.

test

With the high early voting numbers from LA I will not be surprised. It's amazing what some community organization can do.

The repubs always pick up a few points at the end (Ford, Bush 41, Dole, both Bush wins) because the polling always undersamples them. Having said this, Obama in a landslide anway.

Steady as she goes.

This poll spread is too high, foxs is way too low. Obama is ahead by 7 points and has been for quite some time.

@NashvilleLefty

If McCain is pressing PA which should be blue regardless given the fact that Kerry won the state 4 years ago, Obama's best chance to lock this thing down is to win OH. At the moment, McCain appears to be trending down in OH and given the economic distress Ohio is feeling I would think that this is a very very favorable environment for Obama.

@mysticlaker

High AA population too. That may be the under-reported story of this news cycle is the ability of the Obama campaign to get the most out of that particular electorate. Like the Evangelicals of old.

Oh I am so sorry for boom, what is gonna do if he's prevented from posting nonsense on this blog?

LMAO!

Dang - boomshak was comedy gold!

My problem with the fox poll is not that its inaccurate, its the fact that fox is reporting it as breaking news every 15 minutes on air, completely ignoring the fact that most polls are totally different.

At least cnn only reports their own polls a few times a day, and they offer a poll of polls, albeit they never really say what polls they are including.

OneAngryDwarf

I was looking for the ads as well, but I think I remember reading that he was going to advertise heavily on the NFL games on Sunday and prime time Sunday evening programs when viewership is heaviest. I'm at the point where I think that the Obama campaign absolutely knows what they're doing and that they have a plan for the final weekend.

I've seen many a campaign in my life and this one has to be one of the best ones ever run.

@Publlius

I concur.

I spoke w/ Mark via email today. I believe as well Boomshak is gone. It's good. Maybe we can talk about POLLS now and not Obama's sister living in slums, or Drudge reports of secret video tapes. I'm sure he'll be back soon under a new screenname:)

@OneAngryDwarf:
No, no kidding, BOOM is banned forever...
/blogs/why_are_the_comments_disabled.html

"I wonder if Boom got banned for life?"

I hope so. As the button says, "intelligent and civil" and he was unwilling to do the former, which caused too many people to break the latter.

@Obama008

I live in Pittsburgh, and my wife and I are (ex) Republicans that will vote Dem (Obama) for the first time. It really wasn't a hard choice after McCain shifted rightwards and Palin was chosen as his running mate.

We're not alone.

This has been a VERY well run campaign. Axelrod and Ploufe will be employed for a very long time. Do you guys realize if Obama did lose it would be the largest polling collapse in US History? When it happened like 60 years ago it was because pollsters like GALLOP quit polling 1 week before the election. We are 5 days before the election and will have polls every day through Monday.

@NW Patrick

I wonder how that will work. I would think that they would ban by IP address, but that has only a limited effectiveness because most ISP's use DHCP addressing. If they only banned by screen name and login all you would have to do is create a new email and login.

Of course then Mark could go to his ISP and get him banned there, which is a whole 'nother level of pain.

"I've seen many a campaign in my life and this one has to be one of the best ones ever run."

Agreed. 100% agreed.

Will there be one more set of battleground polls on Monday or is that over with?

I have 7 Republicans in my family. All voting Obama. I'm telling you guys, the polls, on average are accurate. There will be NO Bradley effect. Obama wouldn't be the nominee if there was. Think about it. LOL

Look at that guys, with less than 5 days to go until election day. it's like Christmas on October but make no mistake it's not over yet, get out to vote, there's no place to complacency :-)

as per RCP

North Carolina Rasmussen Obama 50, McCain 48 Obama +2
Kentucky Rasmussen McCain 55, Obama 43 McCain +12
Montana Rasmussen McCain 50, Obama 46 McCain +4
National FOX News Obama 47, McCain 44 Obama +3
Wisconsin SurveyUSA Obama 55, McCain 39 Obama +16
Iowa SurveyUSA Obama 55, McCain 40 Obama +15
Indiana Rasmussen McCain 49, Obama 46 McCain +3
National Rasmussen Reports Obama 51, McCain 46 Obama +5
National Gallup (Traditional)* Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5
National Gallup (Expanded)* Obama 51, McCain 44 Obama +7
National Diageo/Hotline Obama 48, McCain 42 Obama +6
National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7
Pennsylvania NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 47, McCain 43 Obama +4
North Carolina Civitas/TelOpinion (R) Obama 47, McCain 46 Obama +1
Colorado Marist Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
Minnesota NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 48, McCain 40 Obama +8
Wisconsin Research 2000 Obama 53, McCain 42 Obama +11
New Hampshire Suffolk Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13
Arizona NBC/Mason-Dixon McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4
National ABC News/Wash Post Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8
Virginia Marist Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4
New Jersey Research 2000 Obama 54, McCain 38 Obama +16
Indiana Indy Star/Selzer McCain 45, Obama 46 Obama +1
National CBS News/NY Times Obama 52, McCain 41 Obama +11
National IBD/TIPP Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
National CBS News/NY Times Obama 52, McCain 39, Nader 2, Barr 1 Obama +13
South Carolina NBC/PSRA McCain 53, Obama 42 McCain +11
Minnesota Minn. Pub. Radio Obama 56, McCain 37 Obama +19
Indiana Research 2000 McCain 47, Obama 47 Tie
National GWU/Battleground Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
Ohio CNN/Time Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4
Ohio National Journal/FD Obama 48, McCain 41 Obama +7
Florida National Journal/FD Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
Pennsylvania CNN/Time Obama 55, McCain 43 Obama +12
North Carolina CNN/Time Obama 52, McCain 46 Obama +6
North Carolina National Journal/FD Obama 47, McCain 43 Obama +4
Virginia National Journal/FD Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
Colorado National Journal/FD Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
Nevada CNN/Time Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7
Arizona CNN/Time McCain 53, Obama 46 McCain +7
California Field Obama 55, McCain 33 Obama +22

I think we'll see state polls thru Monday.

@political

Oh I knew about it, I just wondered if BarackO'Clinton knew and was pulling our leg. Kind of hard to miss the "comments are shut down" notice on the front page all day.

I've told this story before but I'll tell it again. This says a ton to me and I've heard hundreds of similar stories from co-workers, on the news, blog, this site etc.

My 90 year old Uncle is a flat out RACIST. He's old school N this.. WWII this... X military..cranky... interesting stories..wife is 92..both kickin' strong.

My dad asked him SO you gonna vote for good 'ole McCain. He screamed as he often does when he get's excited "HELL F'in NO" I hate that guy! My Aunt says YES he's four more years of Bush. We're voting for Obama. My dad almost fell over.

My parents - Bush twice..now 100% Obama.

My best friend's parents... right wing evangelicals..never ONCE voted Dem..their entire immediate family is voting for Obama.

I'm telling you this is real.:)

Conservative Brit. mag The Economist endorses Obama:

So Mr Obama ... is a gamble. But the same goes for Mr McCain on at least as many counts, not least the possibility of President Palin. And this cannot be another election where the choice is based merely on fear. In terms of painting a brighter future for America and the world, Mr Obama has produced the more compelling and detailed portrait. He has campaigned with more style, intelligence and discipline than his opponent. Whether he can fulfil his immense potential remains to be seen. But Mr Obama deserves the presidency.

Another point why Obama is doing extremely well now in the polls may be his fight against Clinton in the primaries. That was the best preparation to prevent many failures in the campaign in the presidential battle.

Guys - please don't poo-poo the fox polls. tight polls help obama not mccain. remember that complacency has been a dem trait of late, not a repub one. therefore, every tight poll should stir obama people to action. delight in the tight polls, in fact, accentuate the tight polls - even if you know them to be false like the fox one.

@publius:

"Will there be one more set of battleground polls on Monday or is that over with?"

Not sure about Monday, but I'm pretty sure there's a very extensive poll on Tuesday. :)

And for all our fans in southeastern PA:

. . .a lighter note:

Going into this year, since 1908, after a National League victory in the World Series, the Democrat candidate won 5 of 8 elections. After an American League victory, the Republican won 10 of 7.

WAY TO GO PHILLIES!

GREAT polling day as the national media talks of the tightening race:) I think it's fine. Dems will stand in line as long as it takes. Will Republicans? I'm not so convinced. I live in OR and red counties are DOWN 27% this year in early voting. Of course this is a state that would have to have 100% red country voter turn out to even lose for McCain by 5 but hey..it's WAY down.

POlls, Polls, Polls!...... OBama actually improved in the Mason Dixon poll! He was only up 2 last month in this poll.

Pollsters are assuming that young voters will not turn out this year!AND SO FOR THEY ARE RIGHT!

I think targeting McCain in AZ is good as far as narratives go but the poll of LA referenced above seems far more promising.

30% of registered voters in LA are AA. If turnout is high, then McCain supporters would probably be less inclined to vote. A win in LA and NC could offset any potential loss in PA. Mind you, I think PA is completely safe but I would definite send an army to GOTV in LA.

Oops -- that should be 10 of 17!

RCP today reported

VA +4O
Pa +4O
CO +4O

these state polls seem to be following national polls showing a big Obama slide.

Can we quit talking about PA for now on until we see 1 more poll close? 1 outlier..that's it. Mason Dixon has CONSISTENTLY shown lower Obama #'s in SEVERAL states. I could spend time researching this if I have to:)

Check out Karl Roves map. 313 is equal to RCP. At least he see's the writing on the wall.

@southern angler:

You're banned yet?
Let me show the reality :

as per RCP

North Carolina Rasmussen Obama 50, McCain 48 Obama +2
Kentucky Rasmussen McCain 55, Obama 43 McCain +12
Montana Rasmussen McCain 50, Obama 46 McCain +4
National FOX News Obama 47, McCain 44 Obama +3
Wisconsin SurveyUSA Obama 55, McCain 39 Obama +16
Iowa SurveyUSA Obama 55, McCain 40 Obama +15
Indiana Rasmussen McCain 49, Obama 46 McCain +3
National Rasmussen Reports Obama 51, McCain 46 Obama +5
National Gallup (Traditional)* Obama 50, McCain 45 Obama +5
National Gallup (Expanded)* Obama 51, McCain 44 Obama +7
National Diageo/Hotline Obama 48, McCain 42 Obama +6
National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7
Pennsylvania NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 47, McCain 43 Obama +4
North Carolina Civitas/TelOpinion (R) Obama 47, McCain 46 Obama +1
Colorado Marist Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
Minnesota NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 48, McCain 40 Obama +8
Wisconsin Research 2000 Obama 53, McCain 42 Obama +11
New Hampshire Suffolk Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13
Arizona NBC/Mason-Dixon McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4
National ABC News/Wash Post Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8
Virginia Marist Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4
New Jersey Research 2000 Obama 54, McCain 38 Obama +16
Indiana Indy Star/Selzer McCain 45, Obama 46 Obama +1
National CBS News/NY Times Obama 52, McCain 41 Obama +11
National IBD/TIPP Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
National CBS News/NY Times Obama 52, McCain 39, Nader 2, Barr 1 Obama +13
South Carolina NBC/PSRA McCain 53, Obama 42 McCain +11
Minnesota Minn. Pub. Radio Obama 56, McCain 37 Obama +19
Indiana Research 2000 McCain 47, Obama 47 Tie
National GWU/Battleground Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
Ohio CNN/Time Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4
Ohio National Journal/FD Obama 48, McCain 41 Obama +7
Florida National Journal/FD Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
Pennsylvania CNN/Time Obama 55, McCain 43 Obama +12
North Carolina CNN/Time Obama 52, McCain 46 Obama +6
North Carolina National Journal/FD Obama 47, McCain 43 Obama +4
Virginia National Journal/FD Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
Colorado National Journal/FD Obama 48, McCain 44 Obama +4
Nevada CNN/Time Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7
Arizona CNN/Time McCain 53, Obama 46 McCain +7
California Field Obama 55, McCain 33 Obama +22

SA:

RCP reports today

PA+12
OH +7
NH +13

I meant you're not banned yet

too bad about boom...lol!

Did any polls show McCain winning a state? lol Pollster are being cautious because of Obamas trends in the primaries! He out peforms in the South and he under performs in the northwest!So if you see states like NC and GA and Va with large AA. BE AFRAID if you are a McCain Supporter!

@ southern angler:

Gosh sir you left out the +9 Obama today:)

RCP Average 10/22 - 10/28 -- -- 51.0 44.5 Obama +6.5

CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 774 LV 3.5 53 44 Obama +9
Marist 10/26 - 10/27 671 LV 4.0 51 47 Obama +4
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4
National Journal/FD 10/23 - 10/27 404 RV 4.9 48 44 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/26 671 LV 3.9 52 43 Obama +9
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 52 45 Obama +7
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 601 LV 4.0 49 42 Obama +7
Washington Post 10/22 - 10/25 784 LV 3.5 52 44 Obama +8

You also left out the +12 in PA and the Morning tracker is not updated on RCP..I believe it was +13

RCP Average 10/23 - 10/28 -- -- 52.3 42.8 Obama +9.5

NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/27 - 10/28 625 LV 4.0 47 43 Obama +4
Morning Call 10/24 - 10/28 610 LV 4.0 53 42 Obama +11
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 768 LV 3.5 55 43 Obama +12
Rasmussen 10/27 - 10/27 500 LV 4.5 53 46 Obama +7
Marist 10/26 - 10/27 713 LV 4.0 55 41 Obama +14
InAdv/PollPosition 10/26 - 10/26 588 LV 3.8 51 42 Obama +9

And finally Colorado... where is the +4 for today? Here is the RCP chart. Southern Angler I follow this stuff CLOSELY... Please educate before you comment.

RCP Average 10/22 - 10/28 -- -- 50.8 44.3 Obama +6.5

Marist 10/27 - 10/28 682 LV 4.0 51 45 Obama +6
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 774 LV 3.5 53 45 Obama +8
National Journal/FD 10/23 - 10/27 409 RV 4.9 48 44 Obama +4
Politico/InAdv 10/26 - 10/26 636 LV 3.8 53 45 Obama +8
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 50 46 Obama +4
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 626 LV 3.9 50 41 Obama +9

I am confused. Yesterday, McCain's chief pollster said things were tightening up in a radio interview. He then further explained that Obama was below 50 nationally. I said that pollster was a liar, and was debated by posters on this board.

Today, just now, I read the Rove & Co. poll that clearly puts Obama into the Presidency with 311 EV, and has no tightening trend on the accompanying graphs.

So, is Karl Rove right, or is the McCain pollster right, and how can one not be lying?

Liar's poker?

@southern

c'mon SA, you're gonna have to do better than that if you want to be the next boomshak..lol

yeah I did leave something out

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081030/pl_politico/15070

To All My Friends and Associates at this Site:

Taking a break, but just cool it. The media has been fairly decent, with a very few exceptions, about covering the race. But give them a break. They ain't charitable institutions. They're businesses. Doing their best to dramatize and to convey more of a race than there really is has to happen if they're gonna keep folks interested and sell soap. It's all about ratings, my friends. I think their polls are legit, and the flaws in them are not instrumental or malicious. They interpret the results, though, in a manner best suited for their needs, within the bounds of credulity. What none of them do, of course, is provide any routine context for discussing the polls. Now the commentators often do, of course. THE OVERRIDING FACT ABOUT THE POLLING DATA IS: STATE POLLING DATA AREN'T DOING ANYTHING EXCEPT REINFORCING THE TRENDS FOR OBAMA AND STEEPENING THE CLIMB FOR MCCAIN AND HIS (******). CONCENTRATE ON GETTING THAT TURNOUT FOR OBAMA UP AS HIGH AS THE SKY, MY FRIENDS (ahem).

southern angler:
"RCP today reported

VA +4O
Pa +4O
CO +4O

these state polls seem to be following national polls showing a big Obama slide."

Hey angler..

Virginia (13) 51.0 44.5 Obama +6.5 Leaning
Colorado (9) 50.8 44.3 Obama +6.5 Leaning
Pennsylvania (21) 52.3 42.8 Obama +9.5 Leaning

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data

I mean.. if you're going to just flat out lie like Bill O'Reilly, at least give it more than 3 seconds to debunk.

Boomshak is banned, huh? One thing that has me worried, not in terms of the election, but for the country in general, is why is there such a large proportion of our population (perhaps as much as 20%) who are just ravingly angry, reactionary, right-wing haters who not only persnally detest those who agree with them, but literally want to destroy them? I am not aware of this in any other first world Western Democracy. Is it because of the Limabugh's and Hannity's of this country? Maybe, but maybe not since there seemed to be a lot of culture wars in the 60s too. Do you think if we had never repealed the Fairness Doctrine it would be so bad today, or are there just a lot of radical, right wingers in this country? I am genuinely curious to see what others think.

It is all about the GOTV effort now! Throw the polls out the window! There is only 1 more good media day and that is Tomorrow! McCain has to get his voters to the polls to make it close! Because AA usually vote on election day, but they are lining up early to vote this year! THIS is why I will predict that OBama will CARRY NORTH CARoLIna and Georgia! Landslide Alert................... But 270 is okay !

But in conservative America, lies are truth!

(It's a play on the "In Soviet Russia" jokes for those who don't get it)

@southern wrangler:

Great. Obama's going to win by an even larger margin!

Brilliant angler.. you just pulled an article that says the undecideds might jump to the candidate.. that's winning. Way to shoot your our own interest in the face.

One more thing: Young voters will disappoint. It will be women, AA's and Latinos that will win this for Obama.

I think repeal of the fairness doctrine was a mistake.

The people own the airwaves and the internet.

I think there is no appreciation for that.

It's a Republican FCC world. But, I'd like it to go back to an FCC that understands that the radio is something like a national park. There are, in fact, not unlimited frequencies.

I would also like to pay less to Comcast, and I don't think monopoly capitalism is very wise.

Maybe Obama can help fix some of these 'inefficiencies' (republican word to describe diseconomies).

slinky I understand your comment. But what should McCain say? We are getting our *#(*$%(#$ kicked electorally but we will fight. No it sounds better to say well OUR INTERNALS show blah blah blah. This explains MUCH of the PA strategy too. Too make the base think u are in play for a blue state instead of defending 8-12 RED states the rest of the way where you actually trail in 75% of them.

Guys, it was necessary to ban boom and other alikes. His constant use of th F--- word wasn't right. The overall tone of his exchanges was way too offensive, in my opinion.

*"uncle" Ras' wasn't nice to McMaverick today :-)

"One more thing: Young voters will disappoint."

I think young voters will not show up in numbers greater than older voters, but greater than they have in the past.

SullaSPQR since you are new to this site you apparently hadn't read Boomshak's posts. It was an unstable man... he went over the top calling Obama a JEW HATER, making comments about his color, etc. This is why he is GONE.

boom got banned for making some really despicable and crazy race/religion-baiting remarks, then refusing to acknowledging them when Mark called him to task.

@slinky

What do you expect them to say?
Something like our internals show bad news in battleground states. If they did that would demoralize their supporters and might not turn out as a result
A this stage of the race here's the strategy for each camp
Obama : struggling against complacency of their voters
McCain : struggling against demoralization of their voters

Yeah, I think you're right. They are lying for the purpose of saving face. But, they are still lying.

For me the point is that McCain and Palin are liars -- and that their 'straight talk' express is just an Orwellian fantasy of "War is Peace," "Freedom is Slavery," "Ignorance is Strength."

Everyone please listen to this little lesson in southern hospitality.

Mark has ask us to conduct ourselves in an polite adult mannor. I respect his request simply because this is his house. He has given all of us a free place to express ourselves and learn from others. I do not have a problem engaging any of you on any issue, however If you want to use personal attacks, insults or anything along those lines then I'm not interested in doing so in Mark's house. It just wouldn't be polite.

Howdy all.

No doubt the polls favor the Dems. So the question then is how good are the polls?

Four years ago, on average, in the final polls before the election they had dubya by a small margin. Depending on which polls you include, the average was somewhere around B+1. Of course reality was B+2.4

Looking at the numbers, most polls were pretty close on Kerry's vote, but consistently low on Bush's. Any ideas why and should we expect a similar result this year?

the head honcho at gallup was on o'reilly factor tonite. he was explaining their two voter models and said that they are leaning to believe that the traditional voter model will represent who shows up to vote and not the expanded. though he didnt explain the rationale. just thought some folks on here would like to hear that analysis since i know its been a bit of curiosity.

SullaSPQR it's funny the candidate of the "Right Wing Haters" has been pretty fair. At least his attacks always have substance behind them. Have you once heard Obama say McCain runs with terrorists, hangs with pastors who talk about New Orleans being God's will due to "Gay parades." Is there not left wing hate? "Baby killers, fag, N-lovers." We've heard it all. SOCIALISTS! Grrrrr Cmon'. You're right, both sides have been angry. Bush started a culture war. He divided the nation like no other president in the history of the United States. Great accomplishment.

Boom is gone, but all your copying and pasting of talking points, and ALL CAPS will not be forgotten. Did Alan Keyes get banned also I haven't seen him post in a few days? I will ask the same question I ask every day, where is the Mccain surge?

Since polling sites are ignoring it today to concentrate on the Mason Dixon +4 PA. Here is the link to the PA morning tracker. They poll every single day in PA. Obama up 13 today...2 point increase:)

http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/Release_10_29.pdf

Journalism lost a great deal of objectivity as a result of repeal of the fairness doctrine. There was a way in which the fairness doctrine provided a kind of regulatory framework for journalism; and not just broadcast journalism: Print also followed a kind of 'fairness' because brethren in broadcast needed to be 'fair' in that way...

Suffice it to say that I think that doing away with the fairness doctrine was a Republican undertaking, even if it was done during Democratic admins. And, incidentally, my view of Clinton was/is/ and has always been, that he is quite a bit of a Republican sort of Democrat; even though I'm aware that the Republicans hate him. He is certainly centrist, and not to my liking as a liberal.

It is that fundamental belief -- I am my brother's keeper, I am my sister's keeper -- that makes this country work. - Barack Obama (10/29/08 - Infomercial)

@southern angler:

"Everyone please listen to this little lesson in southern hospitality.

Mark has ask us to conduct ourselves in an polite adult mannor."

You gotta to be kidding?
Aren't you the one who used the N word yesterday night?
You a have a very short memory

@ner...

It'll be fun to find out what the right answer is in a couple of days. I actually think splitting the difference sounds fair.

My guess is that minority turnout will widly surpass all expectations (see NC, GA, and FL) and youth turnout will be moderately higher than before.

Northeastern Republican that's interesting he would say that. So Gallop saying that then believes AA turn out will be exactly that of '04? LOL Even at 5%... that's an electoral win, not in doubt. We're at ease.

I've seen a few posts on here that have said that you vote is disappointingly low. Has this been published anywhere?

I meant to ask if the youth vote has been low.

I think the best way is to take the lowest outlier and the highest, average all the middle #'s, and there ya go. RCP in 2004 on average was very close:)

It is that fundamental belief -- I am my brother's keeper, I am my sister's keeper -- that makes this country work. - Barack Obama (10/29/08 - Infomercial)

Barack Obama's aunt is living in a Boston slum.

America's greatest moral failure, in my lifetime, uh, has been that we -- we still don't abide by that -- that -- that basic precept in Matthew that, uh, whatever you do for the least of my brothers, you do for me. - Barack Obama (2008 interview)

Barack Obama's brother is living in a hut in a slum in Kenya.

I Believe in Karl Rove! If that Man says that Obama is going to carry OHio and he will win 300+ than it is the GOspel! Karl Rove is political genius!

Olberman just reported OBAMA likely to begin pouring resources into A R I Z O N A. May even make a campaign stop by Monday.

Yup, it was the Republicans who did away with the fairness doctrine:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairness_Doctrine

And, in the spirit of certain high ranking conservative Republican boyhood friends of mine, I understand why they did it.

You see, these a-holes believe that all's fair in love, war, and politics, and that it doesn't matter how they win -- just that they win.

It doesn't matter to them if laws are violated; because, to quote one of them 'winning washes that clean'.

I gotta hand it to the Republicans; they did a bully job of ruining much of the Democracy that once flourished in America. Great job boys!

@Pazienza:
It is that fundamental belief -- I am my brother's keeper, I am my sister's keeper -- that makes this country work. - Barack Obama (10/29/08 - Infomercial)

Barack Obama's aunt is living in a Boston slum.

America's greatest moral failure, in my lifetime, uh, has been that we -- we still don't abide by that -- that -- that basic precept in Matthew that, uh, whatever you do for the least of my brothers, you do for me. - Barack Obama (2008 interview)

Barack Obama's brother is living in a hut in a slum in Kenya.

I'm looking and looking, but I'm having real trouble finding the poll content here. Could you please provide some data to support your posting.

Thanks!

McPalinocchioIsAJoke,

Thank you for reminding our very polite "southern angler" that he used the N--- word just last night. Is that one of the especialties of the south? I hope not, and I hope that Mark pays attention to it.

And we have the new Boomshak! His name is Pazienza. But Pazienza wouldn't it be the GOP way to let Obama's brother and sister make their OWN way in life? I'm confused.

Youth vote at UNC seems to be up in terms of early voting.

http://www.wbtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=9269458

wow the eyeball finally opens

http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/eveningnews/realitycheck/main503223.shtml

slinky

The fairness doctrine does not matter any more. Gag the right wingers on the air waves, and they will just move over to satellite. And all of those small stations across the country will lose their best advertising dollar producers. It may not matter to most people. But those in small towns may stand to lose their only station. Sound fair?

Consider the 1980 and 1988 elections when the winners of the election won by a margin of 7 and 10 points and won 40 states or better.

In 1980 Reagan won by 9.7% on PV and won 44 states..a staggering 7 of those 44 were won with a margin of 1.5% or less and 15 out of the 44 were won with a margin of less than 5%.

In 1988 George HW Bush won by 7.8% on PV and won 40 states..12 of those 40 were won by a margin of less than 5%.

Looking at the above 2 examples it is not unrealistic when I say:
If Obama does indeed get a Popular Vote margin of 8% or better lots of states that are currently on the fringe or even unthinkable are extremely likely to fall in his column....In this scenario I think GA, WV, MT, ND, AZ and may be even LA & MS could turn in his favor.

I have seen Boomshak's comments a lot before. I am a very frequent visitor to this site and avid reader, but do not post very often. It wa shigh time Boom was ejected for the hate speech.

I agree that the fairness doctrine never should have been repealed. I guess we can analogize free radio with a public good in some ways, and as a public good, the government should ensure it is used "fairly", meaning both sides are given equal time and opportunity to express views. otherwise, there is propoganda, albeit private party propoganda, but as a public good, the government needs to regulate it.

I also think, however, that there is a radical individualistic libertarian streak in this country that is a throwback from the frontier mentality that is just lacking in the other Western Democracies. The don't tread on me philosophy has been perverted into believing that government per se and anyone who wants an efficient and well-run goverment supported by a balanced budget (a/k/a progressive taxation) is per se evil and thus the "enemy." When this gang getsinto power as it has with GWB, they let it all go to hell since they don't believe in the power of government to do any good anyway, thus reinforcing their ideological leanings and reinforcing their argument to the public at large that government is bad, government is evil and government is an innefficient morass that is a failure and trying to run your life...etc., etc. It will probably take a couple more generations before these types of people have less influence on the political discourse. The young seem much more community oriented and more tolerant.

Yes, I see in Rove's poll that Arizona is potentially up for grabs. Specifically, AZ is +4 for McCain according to Rove. This is undoubtedly striking distance for Obama.

Surprisingly, Obama is leading, according to Rove in North Dakota, and McCain is only up 1 in Montana. These two appear winnable by Obama.

Odd that Rove's estimates aren't getting more play.

The best result that we saw for Obama today was the Fox News poll showing a three-point margin. Were the numbers off? Of course, the internals were off. But the perception of a tightening race is critical to maximizing his ground game advantage. Because this was never going to happen unless his supporters went out there and made it happen.

But just another comment: it seems to me that for the most part the national trackers are pretty consistent at this point. They tend to show Obama with anywhere between 49 and 52 percent of the vote, and McCain with anywhere between 42 and 46 percent. Rasmussen briefly had McCain up at 47 yesterday, but he's down to 46 again today. That has to be the most worrying thing for their campaign, that they can't seem to get his numbers any higher than 46 percent.

If that wasn’t enough, McCain introduced Wurzelbacher as “an American hero, a great citizen of Ohio and my role model.”

His role model...wow.

@southern angler:
wow the eyeball finally opens

http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/eveningnews/realitycheck/main503223.shtml

Wow, you're right. That stuff about McCain's false claims about Ayers was especially powerful. Thanks for pointing it out! (BTW, I'm searching diligently for the poll content here, but having some trouble. Clear to clarify?)

Mike,

Since the fairness doctrine doesn't matter to you, perhaps we can reinstate it.

Like I said, it makes a huge difference to Democracy.

But, maybe you aren't interested in Democracy.

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/10/30/young_voters/?source=rss&aim=/politics/war_room

Salon.com reports that youth vote is not exceding expectations.

Obama approaches lawmaker about White House post

By DAVID ESPO and BEN FELLER – 1 hour ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — Barack Obama's campaign has approached Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel about possibly serving as White House chief of staff, officials said Thursday, looking ahead as the marathon presidential race entered its final, frenzied stretch with a Democratic tilt.

The Democrats who described the contact with Emanuel spoke on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to be quoted by name.

Emanuel worked in President Clinton's White House and is now a member of the House Democratic leadership. An aide, Sarah Feinberg, said in an e-mail that he "has not been contacted to take a job in an administration that does not yet exist."

Both Obama and his Republican rival, John McCain, have authorized aides in recent weeks to begin work on a transition to power, but only one of them will be in a position to make use of the results.

mysticlaker:
If that wasn’t enough, McCain introduced Wurzelbacher as “an American hero, a great citizen of Ohio and my role model.”

As if picking Palin wasn't bad enough...McCain has truly "jumped the shark" now. How pathetic.

After pavoter pointed out Fox 'so called' News cooking their books, I compared their recent internals with 2 old sets. For 9/22 and 10/9 they had roughly 43%Dem 35%Rep 22%Ind and O+6 and O+7 respectively. Now their latest poll has 43%Dem 41%Rep 16%Ind and only O+3. If you reweight their data according to their old party ID percentages, you get 50%O and 41%M.

So, if you look beyond their incredible slanting of data, you can find a nice, probably truthful, trend even from their data:

9/22 O+6
10/9 O+7
10/29 O+9

I actually have recently started listening to Fox News for laughs, but I get sick of it after 10 minutes at most.

I also cannot get over posts I have seen elsewhere of people who think all polls are MSM evildoers and "the real truth will come out on election day". I think that is actually prophetic, but what happens on election night when these people and Fox News suddenly see, by a landslide, how far off mainstream they actually are?

Sorry maybe I sent the wrong link

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/29/eveningnews/realitycheck/main4557520.shtml

SA

You bring up an interesting "angle" with the "bandwagon effect" article. Clearly, there are those out there who believe in it, or there wouldn't be folks like you who try to spin every poll as a "tightening" of the race.

You hope others will be persuaded to vote for McCain if it looks more possible for him to win, but you consistently cherry-pick polls that support your argument while the overall numbers do not.

If you read the analyses that Mark or Nate provide, your "bandwagon for McCain" argument largely collapses.

The Obamistas here typically discount the most optimistic and pessimistic polls as outliers. But the recently booted boomshak, and you, apparently, thrive exclusively on them--as does the McCain campaign itself, apparently.

Surely, if you're looking for a bandwagon to point at, you might look for one big enough to fit something more than a one man band.

We agree on one thing. As I mentioned last night on another thread, this is Mark's house.

Why do Republicans hate Democracy?

http://crooksandliars.com/david-neiwert/why-do-republicans-hate-democracy

http://www.horsesass.org/?p=8948

How I see next Tuesday night based on when polls close in each state
I expect quick calls in safe states and slower calls on tighter races.
I doubt if any race is call solely on exit polls unless the lead is ten points or greater.
Closer races will be held until actual votes are counted in key precincts.
Races with leads between five and ten points will be called when the raw votes start coming in:

Poll closing times: (EST)

7:00 pm
Kentucky MCCAIN 8 TOTAL MCCAIN 8 OBAMA 0
Vermont OBAMA 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 8 OBAMA 3
S.Carolina MCCAIN 8 TOTAL MCCAIN 16 OBAMA 3
DC OBAMA 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 16 OBAMA 6

“FOX NEWS: MCCAIN TICKET BUILDS HUGE LEAD IN ELECTORAL COLLEGE!”

Indiana TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Georgia TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NH TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Virginia TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Florida TOO CLOSE TO CALL

7:30 pm
North Carolina TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Ohio TOO CLOSE TO CALL
West Virginia TOO CLOSE TO CALL

8:00 pm

Alabama MCCAIN 9 TOTAL MCCAN 25 OBAMA 6
Connecticut OBAMA 7 TOTAL MCCAIN 25 OBAMA 13
Delaware OBAMA 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 25 OBAMA 16
Illinois OBAMA 21 TOTAL MCCAIN 25 OBAMA 37
Kansas MCCAIN 6 TOTAL MCCAIN 31 OBAMA 37
Massachusetts OBAMA 12 TOTAL MCCAIN 31 OBAMA 49
Maine OBAMA 4 TOTAL MCCAIN 31 OBAMA 53
Michigan OBAMA 17 TOTAL MCCAIN 31 OBAMA 70
Mississippi MCCAIN 6 TOTAL MCCAIN 37 OBAMA 70
Maryland OBAMA 10 TOTAL MCCAIN 37 OBAMA 80
New Jersey OBAMA 15 TOTAL MCCAIN 37 OBAMA 95
Oklahoma MCCAIN 7 TOTAL MCCAIN 44 OBAMA 95
South Dakota MCCAIN 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 47 OBAMA 95
Tennessee MCCAIN 11 TOTAL MCCAIN 58 OBAMA 95
Texas MCCAIN 34 TOTAL MCCAIN 92 OBAMA 95

Florida TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Missouri TOO CLOSE TO CALL
New Hampshire TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Pennsylvania TOO CLOSE TO CALL

8:30 pm
Arkansas MCCAIN 6 TOTAL MCCAIN 98 OBAMA 95

NETWORK CALLS
Indiana MCCAIN 11 TOTAL MCCAIN 109 OBAMA 95 close but stays red.
Georgia MCCAIN 15 TOTAL MCCAIN 124 OBAMA 95 close stays red.

9:00 pm

Arizona MCCAIN 10 TOTAL MCCAIN 134 OBAMA 95
Louisiana MCCAIN 9 TOTAL MCCAIN 143 OBAMA 95
Minnesota OBAMA 10 TOTAL MCCAIN 143 OBAMA 105
Nebraska MCCAIN 5 TOTAL MCCAIN 148 OBAMA 105
New York OBAMA 31 TOTAL MCCAIN 148 OBAMA 136
Rhode Island OBAMA 4 TOTAL MCCAIN 148 OBAMA 140
South Dakota MCCAIN 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 151 OBAMA 140
Texas MCCAIN 34 TOTAL MCCAIN 185 OBAMA 140
Wisconsin OBAMA 10 TOTAL MCCAIN 185 OBAMA 150
Wyoming MCCAIN 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 188 OBAMA 150

Colorado TOO CLOSE TO CALL
New Mexico TOO CLOSE TO CALL

“FOX NEWS: MCCAIN/PALIN MEASURING DRAPES!”

NETWORK CALLS
New Hampshire OBAMA 4 TOTAL MCCAIN 188 OBAMA 154
Virginia OBAMA 13 TOTAL MCCAIN 188 OBAMA 167 first state RED to BLUE
Florida OBAMA 27 TOTAL MCCAIN 188 OBAMA 194 close but win for Obama

“FOX NEWS: VOTER FRAUD SEEN IN VIRGINIA & FLORIDA: LAWSUITS FILED.”

North Carolina MCCAIN 15 TOTAL MCCAIN 203 OBAMA 194 stays red
West Virginia MCCAIN 5 TOTAL MCCAIN 208 OBAMA 194 stays red
Pennsylvania OBAMA 21 TOTAL MCCAIN 208 OBAMA 215 stays blue

10:00 pm

Idaho MCCAIN 4 TOTAL MCCAIN 212 OBAMA 215
Iowa OBAMA 7 TOTAL MCCAIN 212 OBAMA 222
Utah MCCAIN 5 TOTAL MCCAIN 217 OBAMA 222

Montana TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Nevada TOO CLOSE TO CALL
North Dakota TOO CLOSE TO CALL

“FOX NEWS: OBAMA LOVE CHILD FOUND IN KENYA”

11:00 pm

California OBAMA 55 TOTAL MCCAIN 217 OBAMA 277

NETWORK CALLS ELECTION!!!
Hawaii OBAMA 4 TOTAL MCCAIN 217 OBAMA 281
Oregon OBAMA 7 TOTAL MCCAIN 217 OBAMA 288
Washington OBAMA 11 TOTAL MCCAIN 217 OBAMA 299

‘FOX NEWS: WE ARE EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES!
WE WILL RETURN IN FOUR YEARS.”

NETWORK CALLS
Colorado OBAMA 9 TOTAL MCCAIN 217 OBAMA 308 goes blue
New Mexico OBAMA 5 TOTAL MCCAIN 217 OBAMA 312 goes blue
Montana MCCAIN 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 220 OBAMA 312 stays red
North Dakota MCCAIN 3 TOTAL MCCAIN 223 OBAMA 312 stays red

12:00 am
Alaska MCCAIN TOTAL MCCAIN 226 OBAMA 312 who cares???

With all due respect to Gallup's "Traditional" model.. have any of you looked at the specifics? It assumes that over 1/3 of all Registered that complete the survey won't even show up. It's just asinine. Lunacy.

And let me add to that.. I am volunteering for the Obama campaign in South FL, if any of you didn't already know. I also did some work for the Kerry campaign. It is.. NITGH AND DAY. Don't get me wrong.. people worked very hard and long on the Kerry effort here in FL, but in terms of now.. the organization, the resources, the enthusiasm, it's not even close. Now obviously I can't speak for the rest of the country, or even the rest of the state. But if it's anything like down here, the 2004 voter model of turnout is an absolute joke. If that's what McCain is depending on, forget it. The GOTV is intense. You literally have new volunteers being turned away from field offices or told to go 50 miles away where they might be needed. I have never.. EVER seen anything like this. And if some of you guys are hoping that the Democratic turnout will be just like 2004.. forget about it. No chance.

I disagree on the fairness doctrine, I think it is restricting free speech and I am a liberal. I don't think we should put it back in place, it would knock liberal talkers off the air, and who knows what it would do to political sites on the internet. The problem would come if we had the doctrine in place during the Bush Admin, it would have been harder to get the truth out about the Bush cronies behavior and scandals, because of the need for equal time. Just think about it before we put to much pressure on this issue.

@SA

That's not a great criteria to judge a man (by his aunt). Should we judge you by the living conditions of your aunts/uncles/cousins?

Maybe we should judge a man by the way he treats his direct family. Maybe it is better to judge john mccain and the 17,000 a year alimony he pays his handicapped ex-wife who he cheated on with cindy mccain? maybe that's a better way to judge the character of a man. what do you think?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/anatomy-of-polling-disaster.html

RIP IBD/TIPP.

Finally rid of boomshak?

All the polls seam questionable to me, but both Ras and Gallup got it at 5+ for Obama. That looks like a pretty safe win for Obama. Unless something dramatic happens or Gov. Palin's appeal turns out an astronomical 80% of evangelicals.

Just like Obama is the most left candidate ever, I think Gov. Palin is the most right.

I saw this guy on Book TV this past weekend. He was very convincing. You can view the monologue at Book TV:

http://www.booktv.org/program.aspx?ProgramId=9338&SectionName=Politics&PlayMedia=No

Great American Hypocrites: Toppling the Big Myths of Republican Politics

Watch now!
Author: Glenn Greenwald

About the Program

Glenn Greenwald argues that the belief that Republicans are tough, wholesome, and for small government is not supported by the evidence. He says that Americans have bought into these fictions because Republicans have run very successful propaganda campaigns that are echoed by right-wing media outlets and accepted as truth by more mainstream sources. He spoke at Olsson's Books in Washington, DC.

About the Author

Glenn Greenwald is a former constitutional law attorney. He is now a contributing writer at Salon. His political reporting and analysis have appeared in the New York Times, the Washington Post and various other publications.

@Shannon:

It is not the quantity of the youth vote but the quality is what matters..margins Obama is likely to get in that demographic is the likely difference maker in this election.

In 2004 Kerry won the 18-29 age group 54-45 (9 points margin)..most polls currently show Obama is winning this demographic almost 2:1 (25-30 points)....this demographic was 17% of the total voters last time and is likely to be at least 18% this time around....this means a gain of about 3.0-3.5%....all of us know this is a big gain.

MUHLENBERG COLLEGE /MORNING CALL

PA Obama 54, Maccain 41 (Oct 25-29)

slinky

"But, maybe you aren't interested in Democracy."

We both know that the present day use of the fairness doctrine is to muzzle right wing talk radio. The libs tried to compete with them, but the public just wasn't buying. Like always, what you can't earn on your own you want the govt to give to you. Not you personally, but libs in general.

Not buying into the lib party line means I am not interested in Democracy. Kind of a stretch, don't you think?

I think your just used to having a lot of yes men around you and you don't know how to deal with someone who will stand up and say you are wrong.

Shannon,Dallas,Texas this is why we pay more attention to LV models in polling. Most of these polls do not count on a MASSIVE youth turnout. We can expect a MASSIVE AA turn out, and that has already proven in early voting. I will say this, youth probably aren't big candidates for early voting.

Boom didn't get booted, he's probably just busy with his real life, or just bored with all of this, kinda like me. Time to play my guitar. See y'all later.

Oldy:

Yeah, I'm on the fence about it myself. Being a liberal, if we are truly on the cusp of a political relaignment in this country, maybe we want the liberal talking heads like Olbermann, et al. and just let Limbaugh, et al. be overtaken and become more and more irrelevant as the country's leanings chance. I need to think more about it before I decide for certain.

@slinky

You make me laugh with your Carl Rove EV map.
Bottom line is unless you're a prominent member of the McCain campaign there are some things you can't spin. I think even by cherry-picking some polls you're gonna reach pretty much the same EV prediction as RCP and pollster

The McCain campaign is grasping at straws and try to not demoralize their supporters which is very understandable.

I watched Carl Rove on O'Reilly factor last time. He kept asking him some questions about his EV map prediction like: Is there any chance he catches up in the final days? -- What's going on? and Rove's answers were like "I don't know, anything can happen but as things stand now it's getting very difficult for him to come back"
I am telling you it was so funny and I am sure that the funnier part is coming if Obama wins, Nov 4th around midnight I will switch to Fox News just to see their faces and I doubt I would be the only one, Fox News might get its highest ratings ever on Nov 4th if the election outcomes reflect what polls are suggesting

Get out to vote, don't get too cocky

@Great American

How do they get the cell numbers?

The CEOs of both Gallup and Rasmussen were on O'Reillys show tonight and didn't paint a nice picture for McCain.
O'Reilly and Ingraham were quite negative on the McCain campaign ... are they doing this to distance themselves from a likely loser or to fire up the rep voters ?

I wonder if southern angler is Boom?

southern angler:
"Boom didn't get booted, he's probably just busy with his real life, or just bored with all of this, kinda like me. Time to play my guitar. See y'all later"

Haha.. Good to see you on the board Ted Nugent. Well.. Angler does have a sense of humor. And he's yanking your chains. boom did indeed get booted, and it was deserved, and it had nothing to do with him saying "MCCAIN IS SURGING!!!" ad nauseam. It's all there in Mark's post about suspending the comments.

I don't see the fairness doctrine as a deliberate attempt to muzzle anyone, I see it as somewhat pointless though. Overall, I don't particularly care either way, but I would prefer it not be brought back due to the potential for repression of free speech.

Trosen I agree with you 1000%. You CANNOT compare Obama and Kerry. I volunteered for both in Portland. NIGHT and DAY.

@ NW Patrick:

I've wondered about the youth turnout for early voting myself. It will be interesting to see some solid exit polls on this demographic after the election.

BTW, there is a lot of great data in this poll's write up.

And thanks to Mark for cracking down on comment abuse.

Terranus

O'Reilly and Ingraham were quite negative on the McCain campaign ... are they doing this to distance themselves from a likely loser or to fire up the rep voters ?

If they want to have any shred of credibility, they have to acknowledge that McCain and Co have run a horrible campaign.

(1) I will vote early and often.

(2) I am pretty certain journalistic objectivity has slipped on account of Repub. policies. I note Bork had a large role in doing away with Fairness doctrine, and it took two Repub. Presidents; Reagan and Bush I to do away with it as they saw fit.

(3) I grew up with Finkelsteins and know what I am talking about.

(4) I went to High School with Axelrod and know what I am taking about.

(5) If Rove's map is this bad this far out, things are bleak for McCain and the sooner the news gets out and clear, the faster we can get a clear mandate for Obama.

(6) Alot needs to change in Washington. There is no time to waste.

Kerry was a lesser of two evils in the 2004 election, Obama actually has a chance to be a great president.

Terranus darnit. Now I have to help O'Reilly ratings by tuning into for this! LOL Replay at 9PM. Can't wait!

No Zogby on Drud ...

Oh, nevermind. This thing is over. Time to throw a pizza pocket in the microwave.

@Terranus,

They are rallying the troops :-)

Does anyone know how the candidates conduct their "internal" polling? I've tried researching it on Google, but I've come up with nada.

I understand that the news organizations have a vested interest in keeping up the appearance of a close race, but does changing methodology to make the race appear closer than it is benefit either campaign? Do the McCain people think that if a flawed poll shows the gap closing it will really close the gap? It seems almost like magical thinking to me.

@Terranus

"If they want to have any shred of credibility, they have to acknowledge that McCain and Co have run a horrible campaign."

You'll see a lot of this on Fox News Tuesday night. They'll turn on McCain and finally admit what a horrid, joke of a campaign he ran and what a flop Palin was.

It is, I agree, ridiculous.

And, yes, media have a vested interest in keeping viewers by making the race artificially close. I see that almost every day now.

VonnegutIce9 they do it just like anyone else, they pick up the phone. The INTERNAL argument for McCain is total BS. When you have 10 external pollsters saying Obama up with a good margin in VA ... HE IS. They call and sample like anyone else.

You guys have GOT to see this:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/30/rick-sanchez-v-michael-go_n_139357.html

A very serious problem with the American psyche is the tendency to lie when it suits your purpose, rather than tell the truth because it is the "right (correct, righteous)" thing to do. Lying is not beneficial for Democracy.

I believe it goes without saying this poll is CRAP and all the kool aid drinkers in their heart of hearts know it!

Night, night ya'll!

p.s

Why is The NYT still a news source? Didn't the FCC shut them down for lies and leftist propaganda and deport everybody to Kenya lol?

Hold the presses!!!!

Okay can someone clue me into what happened in the past 24 hours... Its rumored that Boomshak was booted after cursing someone out...true??? say it isnt so

You guys have GOT to see this:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/30/rick-sanchez-v-michael-go_n_139357.html

Richard in Laughlin, if every poll shows McCain down double digits or even high singles, they fear Republican turnout would be even more depressed. You think it's a coincidence that Fox changed their Party ID to +1.7D when their previous one was much closer to the actual? (about +7 or +8)

It's very transparent.. but even playing Fox News pretend.. ok.. somehow some way turnout IS like 2004.. +3 for Obama is still a 30, 40, maybe 50 EV win.

McCAIN on FOX NEWS:

""John McCain, predicting "we may be up late" on Election Day, told FOX News on Thursday that he intends to surge in the final hours of his underdog presidential campaign. ...

"I hope it peaks out at just about mid-day next Tuesday. We are excited about where we are going. People are beginning to focus on the campaign," McCain told FOX News, in between a whirlwind of campaign stops in Ohio.

"We are going to win this election but I understand that it is still an uphill fight, and I have got to be the underdog right up until the polls open," McCain said. "And I am serious about that -- that's when we do best.

DIDN'T HE GUARANTEE A VICORY AND A CLOSE ELECTION JUST A FEW DAYS AGO, AND NOW HE "HOPES" IT WILL BE CLOSE???

Since no one wanted to tackle my question on the accuracy of polls, here is my take.

There are numerous polls with a bias one way or the other. Those leaning left outnumber those leaning right. All other things being equal, and they never are, in the aggregate the national polls have about a 2 point left bias.

In this particular election, where the 2 points comes from is very important. My take is that, much like 4 years ago, they are understating the support for the Rep candidate. The reason that is important is that Obama is, on average, at or very near 50%. So even if McCain has more support than we are lead to believe, so what. If Obama is above 50, he is still ahead.

I know it is EV that count. Given the quantity of states up for grabs, and the fact that McCain needs virtually all of them to win, it is unreasonable to expect him to take that many close races.

But, given my generally sunny disposition, I wm still hoping for a McCain miracle.

You guys have GOT to see this:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/30/rick-sanchez-v-michael-go_n_139357.html

Here's a very important link to bookmark.. especuially in the ongoing comment war vs. the trolls.. =)

National Party ID:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx

PPP will be releasing some new polls tonight. WV will be first, with bad news for Obama.

Http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com

Here's the ultimate point that Glenn Greenwald and all the other truly insightful Democrat critics of the Republicans have made:

Most Repubs. do not make enough money to benefit from the Republican philosophy. Most Republicans only aspire to be in the income category that would benefit from GOP membership: Ultimately, Most Republicans are actually delusional about who they are: Hoping to be someone they are not: Rich Republicans, who need capital gains breaks, etc.

NW, Rick Sanchez was a local anchor here in Miami for years. Rick Sanchez is a hack. When Rick Sanchez clowns you on national TV.. it's time to find a new line of work.

I heard that the Fox poll was conducted personally by Kilmeade, Hannity and O'Reilley.

I read some of Mark's comments about the posts going from a few to many. Except for carl29, the rest are all new posters on here. What happened to Nickberry, Stillow, Patrick, Boskop, Voice99, etc. LOL!!! Its boring when the race isn't close!

Its almost over my friends. See you back in 3 years?

@sotonightthatimightsee

I thought you were banned for spewing so many insanities on this blog

VonnegutIce9:
Does anyone know how the candidates conduct their "internal" polling? I've tried researching it on Google, but I've come up with nada.

To the best of my knowledge, they do what everyone else does. They hire pollsters. I would guess their pollsters are telling them something a little different than you and I hear. That might explain some of their actions and iteneraries. Of course with these polls all over the place, their internals can't agree with very many of them at the same time.

@JCK:
PPP will be releasing some new polls tonight. WV will be first, with bad news for Obama.

Wow. Obama's strategy of pinning his electoral hopes on WV is not bearing fruit. The horror! The horror!

JCK.. I would actually see a WV getting much redder as good news. It would explain some of the national "tightening" if the classic deep south red states come home for McCain while the key swing states keep going the right way.

JCK it says bad news in WV for Obama. Oh well. I haven't held hope for that state. They have such a great economy they can handle for more years of Bush:)

BigMike,

This is a pollster accuracy rating based off polls from the primaries:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

Also on this site you will find a primer explaining the lean, and problems with each of the daily trackers:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/tracking-poll-primer.html

I could care less about him, he's just a drone. I'm hoping boskop was banned for his totally disgusting and neurotic rant, and I was surprised SA wasn't banned for racism.

@Windependent

Congrats!!

@JCK:

Of course WV is bad news for Obama because if he loses it he might be 5 EV shy of 400 EV
LMAO!

NEVADA

Obama 50/45

http://www.rgj.com/article/20081030/NEWS19/810300348/1232

It looks like the mccain campaign is going to try and cram for the election. This is Saturday.

Palin is scheduled for Iowa on Monday as well...

11/1/2008 6:00:00 AM - New Port Richey , FL
Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in New Port Richey, FL on Saturday November 1st.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11/1/2008 7:00:00 AM - Newport News , VA
Road to Victory Rally in Newport News, VA
Please join Senator John McCain for his final Road to Victory Rally in Virginia before the Election. The event will be held on Saturday November 1st in Newport News, VA.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11/1/2008 9:00:00 AM - Springfield, VA
Road to Victory Rally in Springfield, VA
Please join Senator John McCain for his final Road to Victory Rally in Virginia. The event will be held on Saturday November 1st in Springfield, VA.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11/1/2008 9:00:00 AM - Polk City , FL
Road to Victory Rally in Polk City, FL
Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Polk City, FL on Saturday November 1st.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11/1/2008 12:00:00 PM - Perkasie , PA
Road to Victory Rally in Perkasie, PA
Please join Senator John McCain for a Road to Victory Rally in Perkasie, PA on Saturday November 1st.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11/1/2008 12:00:00 PM - Ocala , FL
Road to Victory Rally in Ocala, FL
Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Ocala, FL on Saturday November 1st.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11/1/2008 4:00:00 PM - Raleigh , NC
Road to Victory Rally in Raleigh, NC
Please join Governor Sarah Palin for a Road to Victory Rally in Raleigh, NC on Saturday November 1st.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
11/1/2008 6:30:00 PM - Glen Allen , VA
Road to Victory Rally in Glen Allen, VA
Please join Governor Sarah Palin for her final Road to Victory Rally in Virginia before election day. The event will be held on Saturday November 1st in Glen Allen, VA. Doors open at 6:30 p.m.

An acquiantace of mine has been a paid staffer for the Mac camp; he rallies the veterans. He was scheduled to go to Columbus 2 weeks ago for the final push but the told him at the last minute not to bother, the race was over and they were saving money where ever they could.

Did anyone see Palin get Boo'd today at her own rally? It was cute. She was in WESTERN PA and said HOW ABOUT THOSE PHILLYS! They freakin' bood. She didn't know they are Pirates and even Indians fans overall in Western PA. hehehe

Someone should also tell people that Palin is supposed to be in Florida and Virginia at the same time!!! Maybe Tina Fey is stepping in?

mystic.. they have ceded the Western states. They must flip PA.

@mysticlaker

Any word on what Dems will be doing on Monday?

@Big Mike

I disagree with you assessment of the polls...for one, how do you know there is a +2.0 left-leaning bias? What possible sources of information would indicate this to you...also, the evidence from 2004 seems contrary to your assertion. According to the RCP average in late October, Bush was up +2.0 over Kerry, and the actual popular vote was:

Bush: 50.7%
Kerry: 48.3%

RCP Prediction: Bush +2.0
2004 Result: Bush +2.4

That's pretty accurate if you ask me!

Trosen:
mystic.. they have ceded the Western states. They must flip PA.

It all comes down to money. Riding that bus around is much cheaper than flying.

I doubt we will see a candidate go the public finance road for a very long time, if ever. They may as well take that check box off the 1040s.

Pro, he's out West on Monday. I would guess a full swing through NV, CO, NM... and yes, AZ.

Atomique:

"Wow! While I don't think there will be an 11-point spread on Election Day, this is definitely an encouraging result. If this is anywhere near accurate, then McCain is toast."

Compare this to the Pew poll and the ABC poll and it might be more accurate than the McCain campaign would lead us to believe. I may be wrong, but this election might be somewhere around 8 - 12% Obama. It is certainly more than 4 or 5%.

VonnegutIce9 thanks for your post. SO TRUE. We can feel good about an RCP 5.9%.

@Trosen

I guess that makes sense since I always thought his path to victory rested in sweeping the 3 western battlegerounds.

@Trosen

Thanks!

(BIG "D" ELECTION)
2006 Nov 2-5
REP 31
IND 32
DEM 34 (+3 over R's)
Including leaners
REP 39
DEM 49 (+10 over R's)

(BUSH WINS by 1.5%)
2004 Oct 29-31
REP 34
IND 27
DEM 37 (+3 over R's)
Including Leaners
REP 44
DEM 49 (+5 over R's)

(SO FAR THIS YEAR)
2008 Oct 10-12
REP 30
IND 33
DEM 35 (+5 over R's)
Including Leaners
REP 41
DEM 52 (+11 over R's)

Hmmm ... guess that says it all.

@BigMike,

You should read what I wrote a few posts back about Republicans being delusional.

Speaking of delusional, re-read your post and then look at Karl Rove's Electoral Map:

http://www.rove.com/uploads/0000/0047/McCain-Obama_10_29_08.pdf

Then, re-read what you wrote and ask yourself whether you are delusional or not.

If you do not answer in the affirmative, that you are delusional, I would seriously consider talking to a counselor.

Assuming that you do know, after looking at Karl Rove's map, that you are delusional, I would spend some time, if I were you, considering what other things in my life I might be deluding myself about.

I think there are probably lots.

But, I don't know you. I'm just guessing that you aren't being very honest with yourself.

Here's my opinion on internal polling. I polled all my subordinates at my company. I told them I support McCain over the last month. Surprisingly, they all said they support McCain. So there you go, McCain's going to win!

NORTH CAROLINA (Republican Pollster)

Obama 47
McCain 46

Hagan ahead, too!!

http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/press-releases/civitas-nc-poll-final-poll-too-close-call

The youth vote may be relatively low right now as it has been in past years, but what happens in an election when hundreds of thousands of young people get text messages reminding them to vote the night of the 3rd, the morning of the 4th, etc.? Messages asking them to make sure their friends vote, that ask them to forward to their friends, that include links to the addresses of local polling places, etc. I think it will be interesting. DID U VOTE 4 OBAMA YET?

CBS/NYtimes doesn't lean hard on the undecideds to make a choice, unlike the daily trackers, who push very hard for you to make a decision and report those as soft support. If you don't express at least soft support in a tracker they ask you which way your leaning and you get tossed in a group of "Leaners". The tracker undecideds have to answer no opinion to both those questions to get listed as undecided. That is why you see Obama's numbers are similar in this poll and Rass's tracker, but McCain support is much lower, Rass reported last week that Mccain has around 8% soft support. That will help make sense of s poll like this. Hope this helps everyone.

@NW Patrick
@sunnymi

You both made excellent points. I was off watching the Rachel Maddow show and she was talking about early voting numbers. I am a little concerned that the perception of long lines is going to deter some Obama supporters especially if they feel that Obama has their state won given a sizeable lead in the polls.

I'm just hoping that there is a tremendous response to Obama's GOTV efforts.

BTW, I voted early here in Texas. At the time that I voted, there was a noticeably large AA turnout in an area of North Dallas that really doesn't have many AAs. In the last few days, I've seen many articles that argue that it's impossible for Obama to win Texas. Given the state's large Latino population and it's sizeable AA population, I think this state has a great chance of going for Obama if turnout is high. I know that the polls say that he is 9 points down here, but I don't expect Republicans to turn out as they have in the past when the Republican candidate on the ballot was a Texan.

kinda warms the cockles of my heart to see Fox go the "pine tar rag" to juice up the party ID for repubs. Kind of like watching professional wrestling when I was a kid and the bad dude, after being unexpectedly pummeled by some lightweight clean-shaven dude, would pull some hidden implement of destruction out of his shorts while the whole crowd screamed to the ref, who just turned a blind eye... and the opponent (knowing that he was about to have his face gouged or pulverized) was stricken with fear... only here we know that lies are ....lies; they're ephemeral, and the truth (unless thwarted by massive voter suppression) will shine through on the 4th. Truth, given half a chance has a way of dispelling all hype and spin.

I should also note that even Fox will have to go back to a more realistic party ID model, at some point prior to election day or they'll look like complete morons....ohhh...sorry, I guess they already do

In any event I'm going out to PA Sunday to one of those allegedly "soft" Obama towns (like Bethlehem or Scranton) to see what I can do to help. Just because I honestly feel that PA is an 8 point race at this juncture is no reason for complacency. Take no chances, act like we're 20 points down, work with confidence and conviction that it's the right thing for our country, do whatever is possible in the short time remaining and...I hope and expect... sit back and watch states like LA, MO, and AZ remain "too close to call" till the wee hours of the morning as Obama kicks major butt.

metsmets

Thanks for the psychic Fox election night report.

I didn't try to follow your totals too closely (did Texas get counted twice?), but I appreciate your timeline idea. I'll be clinging to some such scenario to keep from losing it.

We can expect broadcasters to show their biases on Tuesday, so your Fox scenario may not be too far off.

CNN will say it's too close to call until the landslide is over. Other majors should follow suit.

MSNBC? As much Obama-like calm as can be mustered under freakout conditions...then...victory.

VonnegutIce9

As always, of course you are free to disagree.

If you read some of my earlier posts, I mentioned that the bias in 2004 varied by which polls one chooses to include in any average. RCP, who everyone here seems to worship only after Obama and some god named 538, chose a good mix. Good on them!

How do I justify a 2 pt lean in this years polls? Take a peek at the national trend page on this site. Not the pretty picture, but the raw data posted below. Look at the right most column. Anything jump out at you? It is not a normal distribution. Nothing Gaussian there at all. CBS guarantees that all by themselves.

As an ardent Obama supporter, and someone living in the supposed racist lands of Western Pennsylvania...Pittsburgh to be exact...I have kept an unblinking eye on these polls for what seems like forever. It is never wise to under-estimate the human powers of rationalization; however, I have a couple of thoughts as to why the media is suggesting a tightening of the race when all seemingly objective polling evidence suggests the contrary.

1) The Almighty Dollar: Major networks have a lot more to gain by a hotly contested presidential race. More people tuning in...more companies buying ad time...more money for the networks. A cynical view, but not neccessarily outlandish.

2) Pollsters and Pundits Need Something to Talk About: It is rather hard to fill air-time talking about a battleground state with a 13point spread 5 days before the election. It's much easier to focus on an outlier poll that shows a tighter race...which leads to a detailed discussion as to "how", "why", etc....not to mention the seemingly endless possibilities of what could happen on election day and the ramifications of such happenings.

Earlier today on MSNBC during the two o'clock hour, Chuck Todd was interviewing a pollster (I forget his name...sorry) and the pollster made a comment to the effect of, and I am paraphrasing here, "I'm not sure how you've managed to continue to make this presidential race so suspensful for this long...seeing as how it's over," While the paranoid Liberal in me thinks that labeling the race as "over" is rather presumptuous, I think that a more objective observer may see the situation in a similar fashion as the pollster.

3) Ensuring Participation: I will refrain from going into an "Oliver Stone" style commentary on this point, but I think that both the Obama and McCain campaigns have something to gain from people seeing the race as a close one. For the Obama campaign, a close race will help guard against complacency and lack of participation on election day. For the McCain campaign, a close race will help "gin up" an increasingly demoralized Republican following and increase participation on election day. It would be hard to roll out a strong GOTV on election day with the popular conception being that your particular candidate is down double digits....I think that would lead to a "what's the point, we're going to lose anyway" type of attitude. I think it's safe to say that networks, and pollsters, that may lean to one side or the other may be trying to portray the race as far tighter than it actually is for the reasons aforementioned.

4) Outdated Models: It can be argued that this Presidential election has created something that has never happened before in the history of American Presidential Politics. The unbelievably strong new-voter registration, cell-phone only voters, early voter turnout, the unprecedented participation of African American, Hispanic, and Young/First-Time voters has created a situation that no previous polling model adequately captures. While pollsters can make suppositions based on what they think is happening, there is no real way of establishing a model that captures the current election landscape.

Regardless of the outcome, I think it is safe to say that this election cycle has forever altered American Presidential Politics and how we go about viewing, analyzing, and participating in the process. With that being said, it will be a very minimal, tarnished silver lining if Obama ends up losing this election....so much for objectivity....as I said earlier...never under-estimate the power of rationalization.

Remember that Obama outperforms his poll numbers in the South! That is why I feel good about Virginia and North Carolina! The Large AA votes are comin out big time already! If he is tied in Nc he is probably goin to win by 3-4% in North Carolina! AA is 30% of the vote there and reports are comin out of that state that young voter turnout is showing in that state!

slinky

Which post was I delusional in? There have been several, and I want to make sure I get the right one.

tjampel:

"I should also note that even Fox will have to go back to a more realistic party ID model, at some point prior to election day or they'll look like complete morons....ohhh...sorry, I guess they already do"

I wouldn't count on that. I think they will show it razor-thin right through the election to use the "ACORN/Voter Fraud" campaign if it's close enough for a recount/laywer orgy 2000-like nightmare in an OH,FL,VA, etc.

@NW Patrick,
I was watching that Palin-like (with the sound off) in the gym today while on a stairmaster. But the subtitles/hearing impaired text was on. Two things that offended me the most:
1) Sanchez never used the term "hypocrisy". He ought to used the term as he mentioned McCain's $440,000 support of the group and
2 I have seen so very little of this Goldfarb fellow as a spokesperson for the campaign. I have grown used to seeing Nancy Pffff, Rick Davis and that Tucker fellow. But as soon as a "Jewish issue" comes up, they parade out a very convenient Goldfarb.

Michael ought to be ashamed for allowing himself to be used in such a blatant manner.

Oh, and I am not easily offended.

on a lighter side,

@Mark,

I agree with your text message comment.

I expect unprecedented turnout of younger voters.

I think early vote is a poor indicator for what will happen on Tuesday..

I expect an enormous turn out.

Watch.

But, don't be surprised if I'm correct.

I spoke with a 78 year old lady in IN tonight...doing some volunteer GOTV work for Obama. She and her husband had tried to vote a couple of days ago in Indianapolis but went back home when they encountered a 3 hour wait. She told me she's going to possibly try again Sunday around 11 am when many people are in church....good strategy. I was very heartened by her enthusiasm and the firmness of her support. She told me not to worry at all....shed get out and vote for Obama.

The two McCain people I spoke to both said they would probably wait till the 4th to vote.

They were both polite, btw, though I of course ID'd myself as an Obama volunteer from New York, no less. Indianans seem like a fairly friendly group of people compared to....uhhmm...New Yorkers, maybe :-)

The first two people I called, btw, stated that they'd already voted.

@NW Patrick,
I was watching that Palin-like (with the sound off) in the gym today while on a stairmaster. But the subtitles/hearing impaired text was on. Two things that offended me the most:
1) Sanchez never used the term "hypocrisy". He ought to used the term as he mentioned McCain's $440,000 support of the group and
2 I have seen so very little of this Goldfarb fellow as a spokesperson for the campaign. I have grown used to seeing Nancy Pffff, Rick Davis and that Tucker fellow. But as soon as a "Jewish issue" comes up, they parade out a very convenient Goldfarb.

Michael ought to be ashamed for allowing himself to be used in such a blatant manner.

Oh, and I am not easily offended.

on a lighter side, I guess we now now for sure that kerrchdavis is just kerrchdavis. LOL

PostModernProphet, excellent post. I can't disagree with any of that.

People should look at the scholastic poll of kids, if they haven't seen it:

http://teacher.scholastic.com/scholasticnews/indepth/vote2008.htm

Currently the AA vote in NC is 27.1% and I think it was 21% in 2004. It will be interesting to see if the % stays constant or decreases.

The youth vote may be relatively low right now as it has been in past years, but what happens in an election when hundreds of thousands of young people get text messages reminding them to vote the night of the 3rd, the morning of the 4th, etc.? Messages asking them to make sure their friends vote, that ask them to forward to their friends, that include links to the addresses of local polling places, etc. I think it will be interesting. DID U VOTE 4 OBAMA YET?

@Shannon

Rachel Maddow likes to play the "be the skeptic until it really happens" role..not that there is anything wrong with what she is doing except that it might cause churning in the stomachs of supporters like you and several others :-)

@Trosen

Fox doesn't do very regular polling so hopefully this will be the last we hear from them. I would probably take a branded Republican pollster like Strategic Vision over their junk.

@PostModernProphet,

I loved your comment. So accurate, intelligent and with a touch of sharp irony, very well said, sir !

Okay, FINALLY I voted today in Indianapolis. It was a nice day and OMG the line was huge. I was there for hour and a half. What I noticed. Obama workers and Indiana Dem candidates were at early polling site. Only 1 GOP candidate and his workers there for circuit judge. Where are all of McCain's ground workers at in Indiana? Latest polls show Indiana is a dead heat. Contrary to some GOP commentators. i like early voting. I got to meet some big wig candidates at the early voting poll. I got to circle my votes, watch poll worker seal them in envelope and verify my vote so it's counted. McCain is in soo much trouble. Palin? I wish she just shut the freak up. Palin saying Obama not qualified on national security. WTF SHE IS??? LMAO

From downstairs...todays Rasmussen Statewides
(interesting selection for the weekend before the election)

Indiana 10/28-29; 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 49, Obama 46 +3R
10/7/08 500 LV 50 43 - - 4 3 +7R

Kentucky 10/29; 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 55, Obama 43 +13
10/21/08 500 LV 52 44 - - 3 1 +8R

Montana 10/29; 500 LV, 4.5%
McCain 50, Obama 46 +4R
10/1/08 500 LV 52 44 - - - 2 2 +8R

North Carolina 10/29; 700 LV, 4%
Obama 50, McCain 48 +2D
10/23/08 700 LV 50 48 - - 1 1 +2R

All except Kentucky show a net Obama gain.
Indiana +4 Obama; Montana +4 Obama,; and North Carolina also a +4 Obama.

So within the Rasmussen assessment this actually shows that it is Obama that is winning voters over, not McCain. There is no evidence of a McCain surge, at least where it really matters.

So perhaps what we have is a major change in all the states really important in the mix...with some compensatory gains for McCain in the deep Red states (like Texas, Kansas, Alabama and Kentucky) where it really doesn't matter.

MNLatteLiberal:

"a very convenient Goldfarb."

Hah.. sounds like Al Gore's sequel on global warming.

I agree.. I get disgusted when my fellow Jews get suckered into this Republican swarm. Especially this bizarre marriage of the Craaaaaaaaaaaazy extreme Fundamentalist Christian right, whose sudden love for Israel is based on their belief it will be destroyed to make way for Christ's reign on Earth. Scary, bizarre stuff.

Regarding long lines at the polls due to high turnout, wouldn't McCain, with far lower supporter enthusiasm, be hurt more by this? I see relatively undecided voters grudgingly heading to the polls for McCain giving up if the line is too long. People who have been absolutely dying to vote for Obama for the last year, not so much.

@BigMike,

"But, given my generally sunny disposition, I wm still hoping for a McCain miracle."

Huh?

If anyone is wondering. The weather is nice pretty much everywhere on election day except for Idaho and Washington.

Much of the media has been harping on the Mason Dixon poll for Pennsylvania showing McCain down by four. Other polls be damned!
In 2004 john Kerry carried Pennsylvania by 3 points, as well as being 3 points above his nationwide level. If Pennsylvania votes for Obama by 3 points above his projected national average, he wins Pennsylvania by 7 or 8 points. And this does not even begin to count the change in the electorate, or newly registered voters this year. If Obama doesn't win Pennsylvania by at least 7 or 8 points, based on all of the polls to date, I will be shocked.

@sunnymi,

Rachel is pretty skeptical of everything. I still remember during the primaries when she argued and argued that Hillary would take the fight all the way to the convention and make an internation show on camera. The Democratic worst scenario :-( Thank God that it didn't happen.

*In no way am I suggesting the Rachel is wrong on this particular subject, but it is a reality that she is pretty skeptical of things actually going fine :-)

Trosen,

I am fighting that same battle with my RJC parroting friends. As Jews we should never support people that support us so a biblical prophecy of us dying can come true.

slinky

Thats not delusion. It is severe lack of Mavis Beacon.

I AM still hoping for a McCain miracle. I have no clue what it might be. And I sure won't bet the farm that there will be one.

So I am delusional for saying it looks like Obama is gonna win but I hope he doesn't.

I hope people don't actually pay you for those kinds of opinions.

New SC SUSA poll:

M 52 O 44.

Someone squeezes one more in before Tuesday and maybe SC goes pink.

Who'd a thunk it?

@slinky

Bigmike is not being delusional like boomshak or trying to convince anyone. He is just hoping.

@Trosen @Oldy75

AMEN!

On a Drudge-related note. It sucks he has to be so bias because he actually had good leaks on polls. You would think his site would only benefit from him showing all these early numbers regardless of their findings.

Pro-America_Anti-America

Thanks!

Like I tell people, a boy has a right to his dreams.

Slinky, having read some of my posts before, may have been reffering to the part about my sunny disposition. That is what they call humor, not delusion. It would only be delusion if I believed it. I'm a CONSERVATIVE, how can I go around smiling these days?

The "Fairness Doctrine" actually increased the diversity of voices on the airwaves. It required those who presented controversial views on one side to allow "right of reply" by alternative voices. It wasn't an "equal time" requirement, as was commonly thought. But it mandated allowance for rebuttal.

Of course, if one aired programs like Savage, Hannity and Limbaugh one might have to allow substantial air-time for "response". But wouldn't that actually open up the debate. It would increase "free speech".

And as regards to the small radio stations. Many of those lock out local voices that seek access to them. They are part of syndicated networks that have few local contributions, don't cover local politics, issues, or events. In the last few years small radio stations have been shut down because they interfere with large corporately owned megawatt broadcasters. Some of these syndicates are actually religious broadcasters (e.g. Paxson and the Family Radio Network) which have taken over the non-commercial, educational radio spectrum and used it for restricted sectarian evangelical proselytizing and fundraising.

Slinky

The guy on book TV may be the one I've been trying to get info on, or at least has the data I read a year or so back. Way more than 2% of the pop. thinks they are now or soon will be in the top 2% income level, so they falsely believe that what's good for the top 2% is good for them. Thus they consistently vote against their own interests, and are encouraged to do so by various GOP strategies.

Same for white perception of AA's as a % of total pop. If you're white and you think the US is 30% AA (it's maybe half that), you'll be that much more likely to think social pgms targeted at AA's will be prohibitively expensive.

Goes along with the "endangered white male" argument.

I'll watch the book tv interview, thanks.

No, he's delusional, and it's a symptom of something deeper.

For sure.

So, I gave him Rove to stare at and try to come to terms with (rationalize).

Here's what the Repubs. do:

They are liars and make assertions that are plainly not true, and then they act on them.

That's what makes me mad.

Bush, dubya, decided he got a "mandate" in 2000 and passed numerous tax breaks for people he had no mandate to pass them for, and now look what it's done.

They (the Republicans) are not defensible.

They are disgusting.

The great uniter. The one who promised bipartisanship in Washington, modeled on his Gubernatorial bipartisanship.

Liars. Delusional.

Yup. That's their number.

McCain and Palin are no better.

@mrzookie:
New SC SUSA poll:
M 52 O 44.

Wow. If this was any other pollster but SUSA I would say they are crazy. Is it for real?

what do guys think about Joe the Plumber? I want to know -- tell me pleaseeeeeee -- I kind of think he is using John Mccain at this point to build his fame- Someone told me today that he is about to get a record deal- The funny thing is : I saw him signing autograph this morning at a pallin rally --- I was laughing my A** off.. LOL

@trosen

Yes, they will use any and every trick in the book. They're on a mission from G--...make that Rupert to put McCain in the White House.

The ACORN issue hasn't worked as well as I'd thought thus far, actually. Thought it would bring Obama down another point or so. It seems kind of hard to explain in short sound bites to low info voters how ACORN is forced to submit all those embarrassing "Mickey Mouse" registration forms and how Mickey actually showing up in OH to vote isn't something to fear, that the bogus reg forms are being filled out by dishonest contract workers, and there's no actual "body" behind them...no person who will actually try to show up and vote. There hasn't been a single recent instance of massive voter fraud at the polls; rather it's voter suppression directed against legitimate voters which IS being perpetrated in GA, OH and other places as we speak.

It's hard to get this point across but, somehow, committed Obama voters may be in deep enough at this point and not so easily swayed by cheap and easy (and ultimately false) innuendo.

What makes me sick about this is the wink wink nod nod to voters implying that, because ACORN happens to be geared towards the minority community, it must naturally have a close connection with Obama,(since all those minority organizing folk must stick together, right?) and that, further, Obama personally must, in some way, share its failings, even though his own campaign's registration drives are as properly run and documented as any I've seen. Obama's voter drives are models for the world. ACORN'S suck....so Obama is surely responsible for them....there's logic for you.

@Trosen,
exactly. Continuing along the beloved humanistic Jewish tradition, anyone like Lieberman or Goldfarb or my parents for that matter jumping on the dubya evangelical apocalypto bandwagon scares me.

Changing the subject slightly, I am sure many here take a daily (or a more frequent :) gander at the early vote returns posted at gmu.edu. They were late updating during the day today, but the numbers are now in for 10/30 and they are staggering:

- over 50% already voted in Colorado
- 47% in GA with a >35AA turnout holding!
- over a third (37%) in FL, and as carl29 promised, the D>R gap keeps widening. It's at 8% now.
- NC is over 50%, with AA at >28%
- > 56% women in key states

You gotta love them numbers, kids!
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

@Trosen, MisterMagoo

Thank you for the kind words....

Sorry. My eyes were playing games with me. I thought Obama was ahead.

@mrzookie:
New SC SUSA poll:
M 52 O 44.

Wow. If this was any other pollster but SUSA I would say they are crazy. Is it for real?

@masselo

It is obvious Joe is only concerned about himself and is not interested in being just a plumber anymore.

@Pat

Unless barackobama.com hijacked my laptop, it's real.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7283ffa7-828d-4345-b44c-7e6a908196cc

MNLatteLiberal,

The numbers from FL DOESN'T take into account today. Polls just closed here, so today's numbers will be posted at some point today. We still have 3 more days of early voting :-)

slinky, dude, thats a lot of anger you are carrying around there. I'm kinda worried about your health, man. Have you considered decaf?

You didn't give me anything. Just because you post a link doesn't mean anyone clicks on it. Wow, who is delusional here?

Dubya was indeed a disappointment to most everyone. And pretty much all politicians are liars. Whats your point?

@Big Mike

I'm putting your assertions to the test! Here are my results comparing Pollster.com averages w/ CBS/NY Times polls!

Big Mike's Prediction: +2.0 lean for Obama

CBS [and/or] NY Times Polls vs. Pollster average:

*Note: Poll uses 3 day averages, which I will follow for Pollster.com averages

Date: CBS Pollster Variance

10/25 O+11 O+06 (+5)
10/19 O+13 O+08 (+5)
10/13 O+14 O+07 (+7)
10/03 O+03 O+06 (-3)
09/27 O+09 O+06 (+3)
09/21 O+05 O+04 (+1)
09/12 O+05 O+02 (+3)

Average Variance: +3.0

Big Mike, you've underestimated CBS's bias! Ha! But then again, that is only one poll, that's why the poll averages are more accurate.

No, Rove puts McCain up 13% in SC.

Just an odd possibility. Could it be that if the people who run the Mason-Dixon poll actually give their name that some people might actually be turned off. In some parts of the country that name might actually make people think it's a partisan poll.

@MNLatteLiberal

Good numbers except the youth vote are still getting me ticked off. It better be procrastination or something because if they end up performing poorly they may deserve whatever social conservatives push on them.

Did anyone see the full results of the CNN/TIME state polls? The likely voter results were the only ones displayed on television, but if you read the full results the registered voter results are astonishing:

Obama +10 in Ohio
Obama +11 in Nevada
Obama +16 in PA

Wow...no wonder Obama has spent so much time and money building his ground game.

Yeah! Marist and NatJournal ... two very left leaning polls that are so in the tank for Obama ... now showing McCain in the MOE in VA ... which means it's probably really tied ... My fellow Virginians are finally seeing the light!

@Indiana4Obama

I think it is pretty clear that he wins well when it comes to all voters but like McCain himself said it is about turnout.

masselo, Are you kidding? Joe the Plumber/country star/no show is a fraud.. worse than Palin. The guy made a name for himself "confronting" Obama with a bunch of outright lies to try to prove a point. I might at least respect him if he had an "honest" but misguided argument like "I don't like your tax plan because it might hurt some small businesses who make over 250K." But the guy lied and said he was planning to buy his boss's company (he isn't, and it's not for sale) and that it makes over 250K a year (it doesn't) and to make matters worse, the dude has a tax lein against him.

I mean.. are you kidding? but this is par for the course for the Republican party. George Bush and Dick Cheney are Patriotic War Heroes and John Kerry and Max Cleland are traitors. White is black, the sky is red, up is down, etc. It's still maddening this complete fundamental lack of logic and honesty STILL WORKS with many people.

It's great that under Obama, we can use government resources to investigate guys like joe the plumber. we have to stop opposing opinions. all hail Obama! opinions will face the wrath!

Yeah! Marist and NatJournal ... two very left leaning polls that are so in the tank for Obama ... now showing McCain in the MOE in VA ... which means it's probably really tied ... My fellow Virginians are finally seeing the light!

The youth thing is a bit weird--we don't have early voting here, but the 20-year-olds I know are totally fired up to vote, and especially so because of Obama. I see no signs of apathy at all.

Here's the SUSA trend in South Carolina. It confirms the trends going on in Virginia, N. Carolina, Georgia and Florida.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=d2c7d865-f24e-4011-bdb7-c6a75eb4dc31

Looks like Lindsey has got it wrapped up, though.

I'd like to see a couple of Friday poll's in Georgia. Maybe they'll show Obama going ahead there?

If Obama's only down 8 in South Carolina, I think that bodes pretty well for him in North Carolina, and really really well for him in Virginia.

VonnegutIce9

I guess I am more visual. When I see those numbers I know that is not a normal, Gaussian distribution. It is skewed, and that is indeed a technical term. I may be a little off my game (flu shot today), and the number might not be 2.000000, but that is indeed skewed data, bub.

carl29, thanks again for explaining to me how the absentee ballots figured into the early numbers. You were so very dead on! I always look forward to your Miami-Dade county numbers (if and when you get them. :)

Other than that, great seeing you here. btw, en invierno mi padres viven en el Porto del Norte(a sud de Sarasota) pero ellos son direcho :(.

@masselo

I agree. JT Plumber does not care if John McCain wins or not. He just wants to use this campaign so he can become some big media star for doing absolutely nothing-- the redstate equal to Paris Hilton, if you will. Look for him to do lots of reality TV a few years from now.

My guess is that the book and country music deal both fall through for poor ol' Joe, and he ends up hosting a Fox Snooze program where he will gloriously get to spout off insane remarks about Obama, social security, Jews and other racial and ethnic groups. And our nation will be worse off because of it.

@ Mark,

I agree on the TO. This place was turning into usenet, only without the spam, the restraint, and the manners.

It looks like all the trackers wobbled back to where they were two days ago. There has been some slight tightening now that we are nearing the end of the "second thoughts" phase, but this should be the end of it.

It will be interesting to see the effect of the inf"O"mercial. I predict a small bump in Obama's numbers over the next coule days. It won't be like a full convention bounce, but it will be noticable. Given that this occured very late in the game, this could be enough to lock down CO, FL, NV, NM, PA and VA, while giving Obama a decent shot at IN, MO and NC, and an outside chance at MT, ND and even possibly AZ and GA.

Correction JOE IS NOT A PLUMBER. He holds no license. He also owes back taxes. I guess Bush's tax cuts weren't so affordable afterall! LOL

Keep VA Red:
"Yeah! Marist and NatJournal ... two very left leaning polls that are so in the tank for Obama ... now showing McCain in the MOE in VA ... which means it's probably really tied ... My fellow Virginians are finally seeing the light!"

So if you post it twice, it has more credibility?

VA is going to be close ... Marist and NatJournal are showing McCain within the MOE and you know they are not polls favorable to him ...

@Trosen

got an error message the first time ... didn't think it had posted

Keep VA Red keep dreaming. I'd be nervous if I were you since no poll in a MONTH has shown McCain ahead there.

No Zogby numbers on Drudge tonight...

Call it what you want ... this is a deep red state at heart ... whether you like it or not ...

@Bigmike

It is true that the final polls in 2004 slightly understated Bush's support, by about 1 point. One of the explanations I have heard most often is that pollsters essentially missed a very effective GOTV effort among evangelicals, particularly some subsets of evangelicals that in the past had not been voting in high numbers and thus had not been passing likely voter screens using prior voting behavior as a factor.

Stopping there for a moment, I think it is interesting to wonder which way that points this year. By all accounts, it is Obama this year who is swamping McCain in GOTV efforts, and like Bush in 2004 in part he is trying to reach a lot of new voters who would not pass the same sort of likely voter screen.

The other common explanation is Bin Laden's release of a tape the weekend before the election--and something similar may have happened in 2000. In 2000, the average of the final polls had Bush up about 1.5 points, and of course Gore won the popular vote by about 0.5 points. The most common explanation in that case is the late-breaking Bush DUI story, and indeed the polls narrowed considerably between the breaking of that story and the final set of polls, so it is plausible continued momentum from that story could explain Gore outperforming even the final polls.

Currently, I would suggest there is nothing equivalent to the Bin Laden tape or the Bush DUI going on in 2008. But of course the final weekend is not quite here yet.

Anyway, the upshot is that in the last two Presidential elections, in one case the Republican outperformed the polls, and in the other case the Democrat outperformed the polls. In each case, the outperformance was potentially explainable by factors unique to that contest. So, I would suggest that at the moment it is not clear how, if at all, those factors would apply in 2008.

I don't think VA is going to be that close. NC, MO, IN, and FL will all be very very close.

@Keep VA Red

From the looks of it, seems like Ole Virginny's about to get a transplant.

fox news takes the cake today: they're deliberately altering the party identification of those in their survey in order to alter the narrative of the election-- namely, that the polls are "tightening." really, they have no other alternative. conservative tracking poll estimates like those in rasmussen, zogby, & gallup traditional are all moving in obama's direction. conservative pundits need something to drive home their delusional analysis. more importantly, publishing a poll showing the race is tightening keeps up the morale of republicans. just ask yourself-- what would have happened had fox news released another poll showing obama with a commanding 7-8 pt lead? it speaks for itself...

@Big Mike

I agree it is skewed, but I'm sure that has more to do with Party ID weighting than anything...other pollsters, such as FOX have equally biased Party ID weighting...good eye though Big Mike...

What we really need is a Poll Average Average: How about RCP + Pollster + 538?

Just for "kicks" let's see where we're at with those!

RCP: O+5.9
Poll:O+5.9
538: O+5.9

Poll Average Average: O+5.9!

...OK, maybe we don't need a Poll Average Average!

LOL! FAUX News...always Fair and IMBALANCED. How about changing those questions to:

"36. Do you think FOX is trying to push the election outcome in John McCain's favor or are they trying to give an honest assessment of the election?

37. Do you think pollsters who conduct research on behalf of FOX are trying to push the election outcome in John McCain's favor by making it look like he has a lead when he really doesn't, or are they trying to give an honest assessment of the election?"

If someone asked these questions it would be pretty obvious that it was a partisan poll, even one that might "push" responses to subsequent questions, or voter outcome.

It would imply that Fox is lying and that the "truth" was something else.

Jews and "End Times" believers don't mix too well now, do they?

I know many Jews (I'm one by birth), and not one has expressed anything but serious fear and loathing for Palin. This is NOT mitigated, in any way by her words; rather it is exacerbated in direct proportion to the number of words they've heard her utter.

Whereas many Jews were pissed off about Rev Wright because it made them feel uneasy about Obama in the context of black-Jewish issues and Israel-related ones Obama was able to engage them in a dialog over a prolonged period of time, thanks to Hillary, in part (for vetting him on it early)

One thing Jews tend to do is engage in a healthy and, normally, rational debate with others and within their own minds.
Obama, over time, was able to diffuse Wright and fears about Israel through engaging voters in such a dialogue. It was a rational dialogue in which he was able to convince skeptical voters that he was a friend of Israel and harbored no racial prejudice. He succeeded in that by and large.

Palin, on the other hand, remains a Muthee-lovin, witch exorcising, Christian cultural warrior prepping for those End times and the rapture, and we all know where Jews and up when the rapture comes....it ain't pretty.

Any uneasiness about Obama is more than made up for by uneasiness about the possibility of a true wingnut fundamentalist, no matter how much she talks about the Israeli flag in her office.

Keep VA Red so deeeep red you have a DEM governor and Senator? You also have massive growth in the North, the state has been trending dem for YEARS. Get used to it DEEP RED.

Per PPP McCain plus 13 in WEST VA. Oh well:)

Paul Begala did an excellent summary of JTP tonight: neither Joe, nor plumber AND he owes back taxes, etc.. But he put a better name on it.
He invoked Lenny Skutnik to highlight how poorly McCampaign has been vetting their people, be the Joe, Sarah or Gwen. [Gwen wasn't mentioned, but she makes for a nice trifecta, imho :)]

Wow, everyone check out this e-mail sent by the chairman of the Hillsborough County (Florida) Republican Party

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/oct/30/text-forwarded-e-mail/

Some pretty nasty stuff. I don't really know what to say. Unfortunately, I'm not very surprised. These are the very same people who claim to be the only patriots in the United States, yet when election time rolls around all they can think about is trying to intimidate racial groups and young people from voting. Doesn't sound very patriotic or democratic to me! Very, very sad that people with racist views like this are still allowed to hold positions of importance any where in this nation. Filth like this just affirms that I am making the right decision in supporting Senator Barack Obama.

@Keep VA Red:

The VA you believe in is disappearing under the weight of demographics. Get used to it. You will certainly have two Dem Senators after Tuesday, as well as a Dem Governor.

WEST VIRGINIA (PPP)

McCain 55
Obama 42

PPP: West Virginia Results

John McCain 55
Barack Obama 42

Maybe a little insight into where these trackers are "tightening" The deep reds are coming home to McCain.

A friend sent this to me, I enjoyed reading it.
Obama/Biden vs McCain/Palin
What if the presidential candidates exchanged race?
Think about it. Would the country's collective point of view be different? Ponder the following:
What if the Obamas had paraded five children across the stage, including a three month old infant and an unwed, pregnant teenage daughter?
What if John McCain was a former president of the Harvard Law Review?
What if Barack Obama finished fifth from the bottom of his graduating

class?
What if McCain had only married once, and Obama was divorced?
What if Obama was the candidate who left his first wife after she was

severely disfigured in a car accident?
What if Obama had met his second wife in a bar and had a long affair while he was still married?
What if Michelle Obama was the wife who not only became addicted to pain killers but also acquired them illegally through her charitable organization?
What if Cindy McCain had graduated from Harvard?
What if Obama had been a member of the Keating Five?
(The Keating Five were five United States Senators accused of corruption in 1989, igniting a major political scandal as part of the

larger Savings and Loan crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s.) What if McCain was a charismatic, eloquent speaker?
What if Obama couldn't read from a teleprompter?
What if Obama was the one who had military experience that included discipline problems and a record of crashing seven planes? [Was it really as many as that?
Thought it was five. Still a bunch -- VG] What if Obama was the one who was known to display publicly, on many occasions, a serious anger

management problem?
What if Michelle Obama's family had made their money from beer distribution?
What if the Obamas had adopted a white child?
You could easily add to this list. If these questions reflected reality, do you really believe the election numbers would be as close

as they are? This is what racism does. It covers up, rationalizes and

minimizes positive qualities in one candidate and emphasizes negative

qualities in another when there is a color difference. So let's consider some other stuff like educational
backgrounds:
Barack Obama:
Columbia University - B.A. Political Science with a Specialization in

International Relations.
Harvard - Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna Cum Laude Joseph Biden:
University of Delaware - B.A. in History and B.A. in Political Science.
Syracuse University, College of Law - Juris Doctor
(J.D.)
John McCain:
United States Naval Academy - Class rank: 894 of 899 Sarah Palin:
Hawaii Pacific University - 1 semester North Idaho College - 2 semesters - general study University of Idaho - 2 semesters - journalism Matanuska-Susitna College - 1 semester University of Idaho

- 3 semesters - B.A. in Journalism Education isn't everything, but this is about the two highest offices in the land as well as our standing in the world.

Public Policy Polling

West Virginia Results
John McCain 55
Barack Obama 42

@oicu

Don't forget a Democratic President :)

Argh . . . too much to read after Mark opened things up again.

Random thoughts:

Disappointed that some media are trying to create a race that doesn't exist, mainly because I'd rather not have the McCain folks overly inspired.

My impression is that many of the different polls may be starting to converge at about a 5-7% Obama lead by Election Day.

For R-leaning Rasmussen, I thought his most recent state numbers were actually good for Obama. KY's don't matter, IN & MT look like tossups, and Obama seems to have a small lead in NC.

I don't want to get my hopes up too much re the effect of Obama's infomercial last night. But I have to think that at the very least it will solidify any soft support for him that should carry him to victory on Election Day. Would love for it to do more, but we'll wait and see.

I'm telling 'yall. Unless McCain is within LESS than 3% come election day he has no chance. NO PRESIDENT HAS EVER BEEN ELECTED winning 3% or more of the poplular vote. IN fact it's 2. something percent.

No Zogby numbers on Drudge tonight...

That's good news - he only posts the numbers he gets early if they favor McCain. I would think this means, at the very least, there there was no movement at all. Although, I agree with others that I think we'll see a point or two bump in all the trackers once the Obama-mercial is factored in. 30 million people saw it - has to be worth something.

@bmrKY:

That's mild compared to what we are seeing here in NC, especially in the Senate campaign, where Dole has turned quite filthy.

West Virginia is a hard state to figure out. Registered Dems outweigh Registered Reps nearly 3 to 1, yet this will be the third election with a Republican landslide in the state. What gives?

WOOPS! I meant no president has ever NOT been elected when winning 3%. It's electorally impossible.

Mark

I think Nate Silver mentioned something about college kids being enthusiastic but having an inclination to wait until the 4th. Why turn in a paper early, dude?
I hope they don't wait until the 5th!

From my observations of college kids lately, I envision groups of them converging at the polls on Nov.4 and voting as though they were trying to get into the first show of a new cult movie.

That's what my daughter and her friends would do, if they didn't already live in Oregon, where lines are a thing of the past. Eat your dumb old hearts out, everybody else. States are really stupid (or conniving) if they don't consider something like the Oregon model, IMHO.

This youth procrastination could be a recipe for huge lines on the 4th, which should a) discourage everybody somewhat and depress turnout, and b) discourage lukewarm, unenthusiastic voters more than already-partying college kids who are hanging with their friends. Part a) favors whoever's leading in early voting, while b) favors Obama specifically.

AA's and elderly have been through it and vote early, knowing the possible consequences. College kids have much less motivation to vote early. They'll stand in line all day and have fun doing it, while some cranky McCain supporters scowl and keep driving.

I could be dreaming, but it's a pleasant dream.

@MNLatteLiberal:

You wrote:

"- over 50% already voted in Colorado"

Just to be clear, the percentages you quote are a proportion of 2004 vote totals, not a percentage of RV. If that were the case, Obama would probably already have banked enough votes in NV and NC (among other places) to have a near-insurmountable lead in those states before general voting even begins on Tuesday morning.

You probably know that, but your phrasing suggests a situation that, while favorable to Obama, isn't that favorable.

Civitas NC: O47 M46
They're pretty well respected in NC.

http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/press-releases/civitas-nc-poll-final-poll-too-close-call

Mark and MN

I think Nate Silver mentioned something about college kids being enthusiastic but having an inclination to wait until the 4th. Why turn in a paper early, dude?
I hope they don't wait until the 5th!

From my observations of college kids lately, I envision groups of them converging at the polls on Nov.4 and voting as though they were trying to get into the first show of a new cult movie.

That's what my daughter and her friends would do, if they didn't already live in Oregon, where lines are a thing of the past. Eat your dumb old hearts out, everybody else. States are really stupid (or conniving) if they don't consider something like the Oregon model, IMHO.

This youth procrastination could be a recipe for huge lines on the 4th, which should a) discourage everybody somewhat and depress turnout, and b) discourage lukewarm, unenthusiastic voters more than already-partying college kids who are hanging with their friends. Part a) favors whoever's leading in early voting, while b) favors Obama specifically.

AA's and elderly have been through it and vote early, knowing the possible consequences. College kids have much less motivation to vote early. They'll stand in line all day and have fun doing it, while some cranky McCain supporters scowl and keep driving.

I could be dreaming, but it's a pleasant dream.

orange24:
"West Virginia is a hard state to figure out. Registered Dems outweigh Registered Reps nearly 3 to 1, yet this will be the third election with a Republican landslide in the state. What gives?"

A bunch of old Dixiecrats.. never bothered to change their affiliation.

"mysticlaker:If that wasn’t enough, McCain introduced Wurzelbacher as “an American hero, a great citizen of Ohio and my role model.”

His role model...wow."

LOL! Well McCain was one of the most absent Senators in Congress over the last two years. The only one more frequently absent was the guy who was hospitalized because of a stroke!

Basil I couldn't agree with you more. It's so EASY to switch. Jesus. Mail ballots to already registered voters. Oregon rocks. I voted a week ago. We see these poll lines around the country and laugh.

Hey - Quick question ... Didn't RCP used to breakdown states as "lean" and "strong" at 5% and 9% leads? And if so, when did they change it to 5% and 10%? If not, am I just going nuts?

@Scribo,
excellent point. All those percentages are of course based on the turnout the last cycle. And speaking of that, the early vote in several states ALREADY exceeds the early turnout from 2004 by up to two-fold.

@Basil and Mark,
It's been brought up several times that during the 2004 elections, the youth vote actually WAS up, it's just that others, incl. the evangelicals turned out in such large numbers to effectively dilute the youth increase.

I believe we are seeing that now. The electorate is so energized on the center/left that the turnout has been huge. The youth numbers are up again, but they are drowned out a bit by the overall increase.

We shall see what the procrastinator effect is on the 4th. If my son is any indication, then there will be long lines once again forcing the extension of the poll hours.

I guess Amnerican heroes don't pay their taxes. Next time I guess you'll see Willie Nelson and Wesley Snipes on stage with him.

@Bigmike

On your point about the distribution of poll results, it certainly isn't a normal distribution. And that is because different pollsters are using different methodology. But it isn't obvious from just that fact that the polls are skewed in Obama's favor. In fact, you can equally well make the case the other way around.

For example, aside from the oft-cited partisan ID issue, one of the biggest single factors that the polls which are relatively favorable for Obama have in common is that they are attempting to reach cell-phone-only users. Another thing they often have in common is a lot of callbacks (trying to reach people on the initial contact list multiple times).

Now not trying to reach cell-phone-only users and not doing a lot of callbacks is not necessarily evidence of conscious ideological bias--for example, a pollster could make that decision purely because all that makes a poll more expensive, and therefore there would be less polling for a given amount of funding. Nonetheless, it seems pretty uncontroversial to suggest that ideally pollsters would be doing both those things.

So, to the extent some pollsters are not doing those things, and that results in lower numbers for Obama, I would suggest that means the polls that don't do such things are de facto biased AGAINST Obama, not that the polls that do such things are biased FOR Obama. Again, not necessarily for ideological reasons, but perhaps for others.

Yah 2004 was a RECORD year for the youth vote but you are right, it was lost with the evangelical surprise. By the way, saw on one of the news shows tonight - A pundit said there is NO WAY the extreme right will come out this time like they did in 2004. McCain is no Bush for the extreme right.

Oops!
double post, with insignificant differences--sorry

Everyone

If you haven't noticed, I agree that Obama is up in the polls. For several reasons, some that I have stated and some I have not, I suspect that is correct and would only disagree about how much he is up. And, if you followed what I said, or if I did a decent enough job of stating it, I also suspect that as it stands today Obama has to be favored to win this election.

As a fiscal conservative, John McCain would not have been my first choice. But I would indeed prefer him to win over Obama. I am hoping, but not expecting, that McCain will pull a rabbit out of his hat and win.

I don't recall the poster, but someone said this election will change how we think about future elections. I agree totally. My reasoning is that given the quantity of early voting that now occurs, it will be difficult or maybe impossible to win unless you are winning in mid to late October.

Don't be too down if the youth vote is not up a large amount from past elections. It never is. Just think about how many elections you didn't vote in as a youth. Although I admit that this is not likely a representative sample. Maybe how many your friends did not vote in as youths.

I have been hanging around you libs on here too much. I was never this wordy before.

@Trosen

"I guess American heroes don't pay their taxes."

U Betcha! When Biden said that it's patriotic to pay taxes, he was crucified. The logical inference is that it's patriotic NOT to pay your taxes. Grover Norquist is grinning ear to ear.

Someone brought up "Joe The Plumber"...and on this point...I have a couple of things to say.

1) This guy is a TOTAL FRAUD perpetrated on the American People by a desperate Republican party pretending to be the "Champions of the Little Guy". Anyone who thinks that the Republican Party is going to champion the interests of the middle-class has not been paying attention for the last thirty years.
2) Joe the Plumber: Where to begin? First of all, his name is not Joe. Second of all, he is not a licensed plumber. Other than his name and actual trade…it’s all accurate, right? Not even close. This entire episode would be absolutely laughable if it wasn't so nauseating. My head begins to spin, and my stomach begins to churn every time I even think about this entire farce...so bear with me while I attempt to make some sense out of all this.
This pathetic tactical attempt by the Republican Party demonstrates their true estimate of the American Electorate’s intelligence level. I have witnessed a lot of nonsense in my life, but the fact that the Republican Party is now presenting themselves as the “Champions of the Middle Class” and the “Protectors of the Average Man” is an absolute insult to anyone that has been even remotely paying attention to the last eight years of American politics. It amazes me that more has not been made of this completely fraudulent claim that John McCain and the Neo-Con Corporate machine is going now packaging themselves as the protector of middle-class economic interests. This is an intelligent, well-informed forum so I need not get into all of the seemingly endless reasons as to why the Republican Party is anything BUT a champion of the middle-class. However, I think it is worth noting that that the entire "Joe The Plumber" routine has been nothing short of an intentionally misleading, inaccurate representation of Republican policy, direction, and motives. As the saying goes, you can call a fish a bird...but that doesn't mean it can fly.
This entire nonsensical, razzle-dazzle hail-mary is simply another example of a Candidate, and party, with no ideas, no vision, and no real platform to speak of. Obama made an unfortunate slip of the tongue with the “spread the wealth around” comment and McCain jumped on it like a fat kid on a cupcake. In an attempt to sell the preposterous notion that the middle-class, a group of people which McCain refused to even address by name in ANY of the three debates, McCain packaged his message to “average America” in the form of Joe The Plumber. This entire move might have appeared more authentic if:
- Joe The Plumber didn’t have a publicist
- Joe The Plumber didn’t have a talent agent
- Joe The Plumber didn’t just sign a record deal
But then again, I am sure that there is a rather large contingency of “average American Joes” with publicists, talent agents, and record deals, right? The McCain campaign’s true elitist nature continues to betray their attempt at packaging themselves as the “middle class brand”. They take a self-proclaimed “Hockey Mom”/”Wal Mart” mom and then outfit her with $150,000 in clothes from high-end stores….oops. Then, they rest their anti-Socialism message on an “average guy” that has a publicist, talent agent, and record deal….oops. Anyone else noticing a pattern here? We won’t even get into the discussion of judgment….that horse was beaten to death long ago.

3) Redistribution of Wealth: ANY progressive taxation structure is, by definition, a form of wealth redistribution. In the midst of their heated “anti-Socialism” rhetoric, McCain and Palin have neglected to mention that Medicare and Social Security are two examples of “redistribution of wealth” programs currently in effect in America. When will they begin calling these programs Marxist, Socialist, or remnants of Communist ideology? Another point lost in this entire discussion, if you can call it that, is the fact that redistribution of wealth can travel in both directions. Regan, the Republican Party’s version of Jesus, was the crown price of “Trickle Down” economics that sought to give everything to the wealthiest people in the country and let it magically find its way to the “little guy”. I am waiting for McCain to defend is proposed 300 billion dollar tax cut for the wealthiest 2% of Americans while ignoring 101 million middle-class families to all of the “Joe the six-pack drinking plumbers”. More importantly, I am waiting for someone to ask him to defend this hypocrisy. One other point on McCain’s hypocritical position concerning the redistribution of wealth: McCain’s healthcare policy calls for an estimated 3.2 trillion dollar tax increase on health benefits that is then given DIRECTLY to insurance companies….I fail to see how this does not classify as “spreading the wealth around” in reverse.

The point is simple….the Republican party is using the myth of upward social mobility to entice people that will NEVER make over $250,000 a year to vote in the interests of those who make far more than that. More importantly, the wealthy Neo-cons DO NOT, and WILL NOT welcome these “average Joes” into their social circle. Obama has made his tax policies clear…yet some choose to vote for McCain “just in case” they hit it big and are suddenly thrust into the upper echelon of income earners. To those people I say this….WAKE UP!!!!

I expect kids to vote massively on the 4th, defying all forecasts and giving Obama overwhelming strength.

Watch.

It's gonna be like kinda partying at the polls.

The MD +4 poll of PA is getting a lot of hype, but any poll badly off the average in a widely polled state is suspect... and in any case, it still shows Obama ahead.

In terms of questionable late polls, though, remember the late hysteria in both 2000 and 2004 that NJ was going to go for Bush? And the two polls in the last few days in 2004 showing Bush ahead in Hawaii, when he actually lost it by 9%?

Usually, averages and trends are more important than any one poll.

The flu shot is catching up to me, so I need to call it a night. Before I go, I have to throw a bone to my close friend slinky.

We had a discussion a couple of weeks ago, and you posted some links that I did indeed follow, And you did make me think, just a little. I might be slightly more flexible on the health care issue. Notice I said I might. It does not mean I swallow the Obama plan hook, line, and sinker. But it is complex and there is a lot to think about.

Have a good evening, be kind to conservatives, and use compact fluorescents.

West Virginia number is worrisome.

Keep in mind that WV is hugely dem by registration. If O loses that state by double digits, it bodes ill for PA, OH and, potentially MI. Certainly MO and IN.

I'm hopeful but very worried. If you are an Obama supporter, I suggest forgoing the internet fix for the next few nights and, instead, logging on to his website and phone banking from home. I can't swear it'll make a difference but it sure can't hurt!

poll watching is undeniably addictive but when we all wake up on the fifth, we need to still have some self respect. Imagine how you'd feel if Palin were the veep-elect and you hadn't done everything humanly possible to support an intellectually-viable alternative.

Let me tell you something about younger voters. Especially in this election we don't want to vote early. Why? Young Voters want to feel like they are taking part in a historic event, and voting early instead of on election day takes away from that feeling. We want to bask in the glow of the Obama victory and not feel left out of such a special day.

BigMike

"I would have been a socialist, but I like to keep my evenings free."--Oscar Wilde

Mccain feels that calling out obama on reverend wright will back fire and hurt his poll numbers cause as you know the pastors that have endorsed him have gone on anti semetic tirades as well and it will be simply be added to his incredibly long list of hypocrite political attacks. if anything it will just makes Jews vote for independent candidates lol

Oldy75

Let's hope all of you get to vote. It will be a great day or two.

bill, Comparing WV to VA or PA is like comparing Oregon to Idaho. Just because they're geographically close doesn't mean they have anything to do with relative voting trends.

For the insomniacs PPP will be releasing a whole slew of their final State polls tonight.

"Tonight we will be finishing field work on our final polls in Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Minnesota, West Virginia, and Oregon. The PPP team will be working through the night and posting each of these polls as soon as it is weighted and analyzed...
Polls will start going up roughly around 10:30 or 11 PM."

@bill kapra:

Don't worry, WV is like Alabama at an upper side of the US map. It's like Utah versus Colorado, it's sure they share a boundary but they are quite different

If young people can wait in line for 4 days to buy the new Nintendo or iPhone, or camp out for 6 weeks to see Star Wars (ok, that's not only young people...lol), they can surely wait a few hours to vote in our country's most historical election ever.

@ PostModernProphet

As a fellow Pennsylvanian, I have thank you for the cogent and well-written post, which I think has some very accurate assessments in it.

Quite aside from the fascinating issues of, and mathematical problems with, polls in general, I have been impressed by my state's seriousness about this election. Here in Philadelphia, even though we're still going through the aftershocks of the immense Phillies earthquake last night, the election, issues and particularly the candidates are still very much at the forefront of people's minds, and were barely blotted out for 24 hours by the total eclipse of the sun, moon and stars by the Philadelphia Phillies (e.g., until 4 or 5 this morning, my northwest Philly neighborhood turned into what seemed like a millennial, post-Apocalyptic -- and therefore nothing to lose -- party of immense proportions; people brought out instruments and created ad hoc bands in the streets, cars drove around with 7 or 8 people hanging off them, and on top of them, shouting their lungs out; and so many people were dancing on the city avenue a couple blocks away that no cars could cross for many, many hours...)

But what's amazing to me is the almost immediate, swift return of serious political sobriety and focus (...though it will disappear for awhile again tomorrow for the parade) of everyone I meet. By 1PM today Step #1 of every conversation: Hallelujah for the Phillies. Rejoice for our great city and our beloved team. Step #2 of every conversation: a serious mention of/or discussion about politics, issues, positions, polls, voting, Obama, McCain, Palin or Biden (usually in that order).

I am deeply impressed by the seriousness with which my neighbors -- both Dem and Repub -- have focused on this election... even with shocking respect for (or at least begrudging silence toward) the opposing views of their own neighbors. I have never seen this kind of civic sense of responsibility, and respect for the importance of every vote, as well as the passion that is brought to bear in every conversation about it, regardless from which allegiance. Yes, there are many ugly arguments, and yes it hasn't always been pretty, to say the least. But still, this city is deeply engaged in the wacky, difficult, painful, fascinating, often offensive, occasionally up-lifting, absorbing and deeply honorable process of democracy. And it is happening at the level where it has true meaning: one person to one person, engaged in debate, discussion and argument. If you take away the noise and clutter of advertising, the constant fake sheen of branding and positioning, the hateful a process of knowingly creating lies for the sake of advantage, and the all-encompassing, million headed hydra of the media... still, at the center of it all, there is something simple and real taking place that Plato himself would hold in the deepest respect.

As an Independent, it's taken me a long time to assess where my vote will go, and I won't advertise my decision here. (My large family is voting both Red and Blue.) But suffice it to say, I was very moved to silent, patriotic tears by the determination of my eighty-one year old mother, a Jewish woman whose family came to this country from Germany to make a new life as Americans, and truly did... who got up at 6AM this morning to go to another Philly neighborhood and -- making her way through the debris of last night's World Series Bacchanalia -- went door-to-door to make the case that a man she deeply believes in should become the next president of the United States. And oh yes... it's of secondary importance to her, but it just so happens that this man is black.

It doesn't matter who you are for. And there is a lot out there in this country that is mean, cynical, corrupt, violent and stupid. But there's something going on here, in this country, that we should be proud of.

And all I can say to that is: Hallelujah.

(... and Hallelujah for the Phillies too :)

"Joe" The "Plumber" has just insulted almost every musician and kid aspiring to be one.

A talentless boob gets signed for a record deal...something that these guys work years to obtain, toiling in garages, dingy studios, cafes, and noisy clubs, traveling in cramped vans, saving pennies for gas, eating ketchup on Top Ramen. Then this skinhead who has never had a gig gets approached for no good reason other than he's a muppet for McCain and gets a deal.

Iconic of the Republican view of "hard work", talent and merit. It's not what you do...it's whose arse you kiss.

CNN just updated its Poll of Polls

O 50%/M 43%

and this includes the Fox Poll...

@ Ulysses

I couldn't agree more with your articulate, and eloquent, post. As I mentioned in a previous post this evening, regardless of the outcome of this election...there is a very important change taking place across the country...and I think you captured the essence of that change quite beautifully.

What draws me most to Obama is his message regarding coming together as a nation, putting blind ideology aside, and working together towards a common goal of making the neccessary changes so desperately needed in this country. The message of unity, transcending history, and a new politics was enough to make me abandon the eight years of skeptical cynicism that had been building up over the last eight years.

I am 28 years old and like to think that the rest of my life can be lived in a country that truly does appeal to the best of each of us. A respect for intellectual discourse, civil debate, and a passionate desire to help one another. The division, and derision, of the first decade of the 21st century has taken a toll on the vast majority of us. It is time to heal the wounds, forgive transgressions, and move forward with a united goal of restoring the fundamental essence of the ideals this country was founded on.

In the end, this is about far more than policies and party identification....I just hope that we are able to witness the convergence of idealism and reality.

CNN poll of polls is so stupid. It's not a poll. We have pollster.com for averages LOL

I thought we had PPP state polling coming out?

Barack Obama 57
John McCain 41

Minn.

:)

PPP of course.

FROM PPP - FINAL MN POLL (no surprise here)

Obama headed for Minnesota blowout
Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama is going to win an easy victory in Minnesota, the newest
survey from Public Policy Polling finds. He leads John McCain 57-41 in the state.
Obama is leading with every single demographic group that PPP tracks in the state- men,
women, young voters, old voters, whites, blacks, etc. Perhaps most notably he has a 55-
37 lead among independent voters, and is pulling twice as much of the Republican vote
(12%) as John McCain is of the Democratic vote (6%).
The real story in Minnesota is the state’s competitive race for US Senate, which remains
tight although with a definite edge for Democratic nominee Al Franken. Franken leads
with 45% of the vote, followed by incumbent Norm Coleman with 40%, and independent
Dean Barkley with 14%.

Sarah McPlain:
Check out this hot off the presses poll from LOUISIANA: MCCAIN 43 OBAMA 40.

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl103008tppoll.1644da2c1.html

This seems bizarre but very hopeful to me. I seriously doubt we're this close in Louisiana. However, the poll was conducted by Dr. Renwick, he's probably the best pollster in Louisiana. He teaches at my alma mater, Loyola University New Orleans. I sat in his class three days a week for thirteen weeks and I couldn't figure out whether the guy was a Republican or a Democrat. He gave no clue. He's totally unbiased. While that poll seems to be a real outlier, if I would take faith in any outlier poll in Louisiana it would be one conducted by Dr. Renwick.

Well, well, hello at this late hour. I am happy to see all this politeness and sweetness and light, and I pray that I don't upset this relatively tranquil state of affairs.

However, in addition to the many technical and policy reasons that we ought to support Obama, there is a notion of rectitude too.

It's easy to hide behind the anonymity of this site. It's easy to lie and say stuff that isn't true. For whatever it's worth, I am conservative. I worked in the streets of Chicago for Barry Goldwater, and you can only imagine the folly of that in the bowels of Boss Daley's precincts. I was a devoted devotee of Ayn Rand, Objectivist philosophy, and I worshiped the sentences the flowed from the pen of William F. Buckley.

I'm not quite the idealist I once was. I am still, though, fairly conservative. I believe that personal ego and the impulse to serve one's own interests are the most enduring powers that motivate people. Based on reason and history, I also believe that markets, price, signals and profit seeking are the best principles and concepts around which to organize an economy. I don't believe that provides a moral justification for whatever markets produce, but on technical grounds, I think markets are generally best.

I've also come to understand and appreciate the profound failures of markets too. But I digress, and I am being long-winded. My only point is that I am still pretty much a conservative.

So why would I support Obama? I do so because the GOP is today by far the organization most removed from my notion of a conservative party that I have no choice. Libertarianism is what conservatives embrace when they don't grow up and suffer arrested development.

I fully appreciate the excesses that exist in the Democratic Party, but they are minor in comparison to the fraud and danger that the GOP has represented for at least eight years, and perhaps even longer. I could argue easily that on just about every front, civil liberties, fiscal responsibility, and ethical public service the GOP is simply off the charts in failure and disappointment. The incompetence of the GOP and its takeover by the forces of irrationality and 17th century religiosity is too much to defend for anyone who honestly cares more about this country than his or her party organization.

For a party that has so disgraced itself, not only during its stewardship in the past 8 years, but in how it is conducting itself during the national and state races simply demands that I vote Democrat this time.

As it happens, I also believe that the balance of power in our nation has gotten totally out of line. We've deferred too much to the forces of the private sector. We've transferred too much of the nation's income and wealth from wage earners to the capital gains manipulators, and we've allowed our political system to be utterly corrupted by the amoral power of global finance and titanic economic interests. The equilibrium between the public and private forces has gotten totally out of whack and the economic crisis should hopefully lead to some balance. If Democrats don't over-reach; if they don't try to turn the country into Berkeley, California; if the Democrats, in other words, understand the importance of balance and appreciate the wonder of a disciplined, well designed market, then Democrats are in for a long period of leadership.

If there was any doubt in my vote, McCain's choice of VP and the muck into which his campaign has lodged itself sealed my choice for Obama.

As for the polls, I'm as much a numbers nut as the best of you, but the simple fact is that it is over. In virtually all the states where it matters, Obama's lead has remained virtually steady or increased. There is no "tightening" among the states that matter. The national numbers, if they hang anywhere between a 3-6% lead suggest a fairly solid electoral vote success for Obama.

The key issue is how many Democrats make it into Congress, and that'll likely be a function of whether Obama can maximize his turnout.

Gnite.

"Check out this hot off the presses poll from LOUISIANA: MCCAIN 43 OBAMA 40."

That has to be an outlier.

Too good too be true.

Other important numbers from that poll

Franken: 45%
Coleman: 40%
Barkley: 14%

Barkley is pulling slightly more support (10%) from Democrats than he is from
Republicans (7%). Coleman and Franken are basically knotted among independents,
with Barkley close behind.

Okay, I was bored and decided to play with the Pollster numbers a little.

(Caveat - I'm not a statistician so be gentle) :P

Five basic scenarios for Electoral Votes:

Worst case MOE for Obama (in other words -3.5% Obama; +3.5% McCain) -- Obama 277, McCain 261

All undecideds %s go McCain (or all states 50% Obama) -- Obama 282, McCain 256

Pollster %s straight up (undecideds simply don't vote) -- Obama 367, McCain 171

All undecided %go Obama -- Obama 415, McCain 123

Worst case MOE for McCain -- Obama 412, McCain 126 (South Dakota flips vs the previous scenario)

What does all this mean? Besides McCain needing a Moses-like miracle? The only states that DON'T flip from GOP in any scenario are:

AK, ID, UT, WY, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, AL, SC, TN, KY, WV

Plot that on the map and you're left with a rather scattershot geographic base consisting of mainly the Southern Plains.

IF McCain loses (and it's not looking good) - expect a good 8-12 years of wilderness wandering.

@ C.S.Strowbridge:

Please see my post above. Dr. Renwick is a great pollster in Louisiana. If you should take faith in any outlier poll in Louisiana, then go with Renwick. I personally know Renwick as a former student, but I grew up watching him all my life in New Orleans on WWL-TV. I have never seen a poll he conducted that was wrong this close to an election.

That LA poll isn't really something to get overly excited about. I mean don't get me wrong it is positively indulgent to bask in the glow of those numbers.

The problem is that it is a news poll with like 500 RV's and so it probably isn't really that close. Not that we can't hope but that sort of information isn't going to get Team O to commit troops to the fray there.

But lets put all that aside for a moment and just drink in the possibility. :=)

@Dieter

Our paths are almost identical...from Golwater onward. Our views are as twin as could be...the differrence is you express it more eloquently!

Thank you!

Well, again, thanks laguna_b, but I'll bet you didn't have to work on the North Side of Chicago, trying to find the ten Republicans there to vote for Goldwater!

@Dieter,

No I wasn't that lucky....I was in Queens NYC....

@boris_dieter

I also worked in Suite 3505 and had the pleasure of an audience experience in Firing Line with WFB.

@ OneAngryDwarf

Where are you from? You familiar with Dr. Renwick?

what does anyone think zogby will be

I'm in Tucson, AZ and no I'm not familiar with the good doctor Renwick.

never mind no real change in zogby

Zogby is unchanged (50.1 - 43.1). Obama gains 0.2.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1622

Some things to note about the LA poll:

1) 17% undecided, a week before the election and with a fair number already having voted? Odd, although I suppose in a poll of RV the undecideds are basically non-voters.

2) The sample is 30% AA, which seems like a whole lot until one notices that early voters are 36% AA. Obama is staying close even without taking much of the white vote.

@saywaht90

My money is on a complete waste of time. That dude is a clown. I'm waiting for Nate Silver over at 538.com to do a scathing expose on his incompetence.

Similar to what he did to the TIPP poll today.

If I had to guess since we haven't seen it on Drudge must be at least O+5

so does anybody think this race is pretty much over with. i m not sure i think mccain may come back and win this. and not because of this false media notion of him as a comeback kid. because he didnt come back in 2000. but because of those who still are ready to vote for a black man.

Over I'm not sure but I think BlueinTexas put it about right when he described the scenario as:

McCain needing a Moses-like miracle

I think Chuck Todd on MSNBC tonight had to bite his tongue off to keep from saying it. Obviously nothing is a done deal in the age of the Diebold automatic "vote stealing" machines and the current brand of Republican "cage the vote" tactics. But the numbers are strong for O and though the National polls look to be closing, the state numbers are awesome to behold.

saywhat90 if McCain came back and WON this with 2 business days to go it would be the largest polling collapse in US History. I'm feeling pretty good.

I heard from another thread on this site that they had to suspend comments on here and 538 today. I know it happened here but has anyone been over to 538 and can confirm that?

@ OneAngryDwarf:

Well, let me fill you in. WWL-TV is virtually a super station in New Orleans. Their news broadcasts get over 30% of TV households in New Orleans. Its been like that for my entire life. That's because they are deeply trusted and tend to be very accurate. Renwick's been doing polls for them since I was a little boy. Like I said, I can't remember him being wrong this close to an election. Although, the high number of undecideds are worrisome. Nonetheless, Renwick is probably the best pollster in Louisiana. I also was taught by him, so he might not be biased, but maybe I am.

@RfrancisR

That is good to know. I do hope they turn out to be true because that would be a really nice suprise come election night.

Wouldn't worry too much about West Virginia. Let any "tightening" in the national numbers be the result of bigger gains for McCain in republican states.

Here in Texas, I'd gladly see the McCain margin widen if it would preserve an Obama lead in states like North Carolina and Florida.

Early voting ends tomorrow in Texas. I'm surprised to learn that early voting continues for three more days in Florida.

When does early voting end in other states?

Lech

I talked to my nphew who knows the wife a major person in the Obama campaign. They ARE worried about the Bradley effect....significantly. One can see how one would worry about what can not be seen, predicted or measured yet affect you negatively.

I have to confess that I know I look upon black Americans differently than white Americians. I was so proud of Obama for putting all this to adult like on the table.

I have no problem voting for Obama but I am educated and aware that I have some bias. I try to compensate for it so that it does not affect other areas of my life.

I hope Americans will put thier own self interests above such things and vote our man in.

While there is record African American turnout for early voting so far, an article in the Orlando Sentinel discussed how in Florida how disproportionately light and minimal turnout has been so far amongst college students for early voting!! http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/orl-earlyvote3008oct30,0,5283353.story

This is very disappointing!! We NEED college students to vote!

If America passes on this opportunity, we deserve what we get. More scandal, more trickle down, more trouble. Rome fell this way. Stupidity.

@Boris

If all conservatives could elaborate their positions as rationally as you have, I think the country and the Republican party would be in much better shape, simply because they would have to be.

I'm of the opinion that markets (businesses/corporations in particular) should be left to their own devices under a few basic conditions:

1. Competition exists.

2. Their actions do not harm consumers either directly or indirectly (e.g. environmental pollution)

3. They share in the tax burden...(contrary to GOP opinion, most corporations don't pay any taxes at all b/c of loopholes...in other words, if I don't have "loopholes" as a taxpayer, neither should they)

4. Their labor force is given a living wage (enough to pay for: housing, food, transportation, and health care)...in other words, if you can only survive as a business by treating your workers unfairly, let another company do it)

Other than that, they can do whatever they want, and hoard whatever obnoxious profits they wish, as long as they contribute just like everyone else.

cross sectional poll of polls use 538 trend adjusted state polls and 2004 election weight for state
2004 weight 538 TAA O-M
CA 10.16% 20.90%
FL 6.22% 2.60%
TX 6.06% -12.10%
NY 6.02% 28.8%
PA 4.72% 10.10%
OH 4.60% 4.30%
IL 4.32% 22.4%
MI 3.96% 11.90%
NJ 2.95% 15.80%
NC 2.86% 1.10%
GA 2.70% -5.40%

and so on...........You get Obama + 6.83%

Or

Obama 49.97
McCain 43.14

Same as Zogby :)

Released: October 31, 2008

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 50.1%, McCain 43.1%

@NoMcSame

I am a college student and I've already voted! In addition, I'm working on the GOTV on campus Monday, then helping knock on every door in Milwaukee County, WI on election day. Expect a big turnout across the country, we'll drag people there if we have to!

WTF - Did anyone else notice that RCP knocked the Pew poll off their National average?

nc early voting ends on nov1. well i guess im just gonna have to wait and see

Colorado: PPP (D), 10/28-30 (10/8-10 in parenthesis)
Obama 54 (52)
McCain 44 (42)

@Thatcher

Are you suprised? RCP has a serious R-lean to it. I think they moved PA back into lean Obama today when even their numbers say he's up like +9.5.

I have no idea what they are doing over there now. I pop in a couple of times a day to check the "latest poll" section but I leave the rest. More time here and at 538.

NC early voting close to 985,000 registered Dems have voted vs. 540,000 reg. GOP. Amazing

who cares we all know PA is dark blue

Boris/laguna
I worked for Goldwater at 14 in Atlanta, watched Buckley, read Rand, acted like 17 going on 50.

Then I went to college & grad school, became a peacenik, ended up in Oregon where it was OK to be whatever, and never looked back.

Not surprising that I think Buckley and Rand represent an adolescent (or maybe young adult) phase. They were for me.

I like to hear this when a pollster is talking about an Obama state:

“At one point in the not so distant past it looked like the race for President might come
down to Colorado on election night,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling. “But since the economy started really going south, Obama has broken open the
race in the state and looks primed for a dominant victory Tuesday.”

Guys RCP's average is the last 10 polls. Pew is now the 11th released so it dropped off. No big deal. LOL In addition, now to be DARK blue or dark red they changed the min. polling #. You have to be up on average of 10% to go dark color. Notice some red states are now pink do to this change. Means nothing anyways.:)

dont worry too much i know alot of people that just want to vote on election day, i had the choice of turning in an early ballot but it doesnt feel the same, it feels more symbolic, there will be a young voter increase this year to match the registration

Great news and confirmation out of Colorado, our safety net w NM and IA:) Good night everyone.

@NW Patrick

I agree it means nothing but it would be nice if they showed a little consistency. They've been (relatively) all over the map this cycle with their methodology.

Pick one already.

lets start a petition to bring boomshak back....

j/k...

Here's a link to today's early voting stats.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Reading the tea leaves. Disproportionate voting in Louisiana by AA's, Democrats, and women. But still only about 10% of the total voters. Ohio stats are interesting...large metro areas are the places with larger than expected turnouts...rural areas only about 10%. As well disproportionate AA's and Democrats.

RCP is right leaning...that's fine got no problem if they want to make PA light blue fine....I have a hunch it will be called for Obama 9 PM on tuesday

@kerrchdavis

Actually I think MN and one of the other regulars asked (very eloquently I might add) to have boomshak reinstated.

I personally think he crossed a line, wasn't able to admit that he'd crossed a line, and then blew off the site owner instead of dealing with the problem.

He has been heading towards a meltdown for a while and it wasn't like this was completely unexpected. Dude has been headed downhill for over a month, basically since the McCain numbers tanked due to the economic collapse.

BTW if anyone needs confrimation that Iowa and NM are flipping blue......take a look at early voting number with significant #'s in dems out polls GOP 2-1 in both states same with Nevada

Blue states + NV+ NM+ IA =269 Dornie have to win any one of 10 battleground states

@OneAngry

While I give a lot of respect to MN, boom has been a joke on this site for quite some time and what little credibility he used to have is all but gone. He absolutely crossed the line and, in typical boom fashion, was not able to admit he made a mistake (not unlike when he can't admit he's made an incorrect prediction).

Bringing him back solely because we find his delusions entertaining isn't a good enough reason to me, as much as I would love to laugh at him on Nov 4th.

PPP Colorado

Barack Obama 54
John McCain 44

N= 2,023 people. 1306 had already voted, and 761 of them voted for Obama.

65% - already voted ( Obama 58- McCain 41)
LV election day (McCain 50-47)

(out of the remaining folks Obama would only need 251 out of their 717 votes, or 35%. Since 47% say they intend to vote for Obama it seems like a safe bet that he'll get there).

Independents Obama 60%-36%.

Obama attracts Republicans (13%) more than John McCain draws Democrats (10%).

But these are registration figures...the key is whether this is a different distribution from '04 (as is clearly the case in NC).

Btw, Zogby O +7, no change.

@kerrchdavis

I agree the level of the discourse is much higher now that he is gone. Now if someone could just catch the southern dangler using the n-bomb again we'd really be in business. At least the rest of the trolls are civil.

Oh well The Daily Show is coming on here and I've got to see if Jon can destroy Kristol. Have a good night.

@1A

nite!

From Sean Quinn at fivethirtyeight, re Nevada:

The strong Democratic turnout has Republicans mulling possible legal challenges. “We question whether these are valid registrations,” said Smith, the Washoe County GOP chairwoman.

While talking to Smith, she was interrupted by a cell phone call, which she inadvertently put on the speakerphone. It was the state GOP executive director Zachery Moyle, and the two discussed what could be done about the tsunami of Democratic Party registrations.

“I’m looking for people to sign on to a lawsuit,” Moyle said to Smith, who fumbled with the phone while turning off the speaker. “You didn’t hear that,” she said glancing in my direction.
_______________________
Sean did hear it, and now we know it.

Bravo, Sean! Now get out quickly and quietly, hire a lawyer, and maybe you'll end up a hero of democracy.

well i have to say that i have mixed feelings about boom being gone. on the one hand we can actually have a discussion about polls with out every other line being an obnoxious attempt to grab attention. on the other hand i really wanted him to be here on the 4th. i mean if he was going to get banned i wish it was earlier than 5 days before the election. now i want to see the pay off... but thats ok, he probably wasnt going to show up anyway. bye bye boomy, you wont be missed.

kristol on the daily show tonight? blegh i hate kriston. i hope stewart rips that nervous little neo con a new one...

Wow @ the Nevada republicans.

What a bunch of cry babies. It's so representative of their whole entire party. They are so upset that the American people appear poised to reject the past 8 years and the messages of fear that have came with it, and that they will instead embrace a message of hope and love for one another. They are so upset that the courts (at least in Ohio and Colorado) will not allow them to steal yet another election. The very same people who claim to be the biggest patriots and pro-democracy. There is nothing more unpatriotic or undemocratic than what they are trying to pull here. Hopefully Nevada will also throw out yet another absurd GOP case. It's very scary that these people, who so openly despise the fact that people (especially minorities and younger voters) actually have a chance to decide elections, were ever allowed to come into power in the first place. When I look back on it, I have to admit, they had the perfect plan-- divide us as a nation on social issues in order to allow them to come into power, abolish the fairness doctrine so people like Rush were able to compete on the air for many years while spreading the GOP agenda uncontested by the left, in hopes of brainwashing enough people to keep them in power, and then make absurd "exact match" voting laws that make it easy to suppress the votes of minorities and the youth.

Sorry for the rant, but stories like this just irk me and remind me of what is truly at stake in this election and how we, as a functioning democracy, cannot allow these people to continue to get away with this. This, combined with the disgusting ad that Liddy Dole is running, reminds me of everything that I detest about these people. We have a chance, as a nation, to reject all of this on Tuesday October 4th. For the sake of the future of our country, I hope that we do and that someone who "doesn't see America the way that I see it" such as Sarah Palin remains far, far away from Washington, D.C.

Zogby shows O +7? Happy Halloween! :D

PPP Oregon
Obama 57
McCain 42

Merkley 51
Smith 43

PPP New Mexico
Obama 58
McCain 41

Udall 58
Pearce aka Udall's Victim 39

If there is/was a surge, these polls sure didn't pick it up. A surge for Obama, maybe. That New Mexico number is very nice.

Zogby internals Friday October 31

Total: Obama 50.1, McCain 43.1
West: Obama 55.6, McCain 41.2
Holding base: Obama 85.9, McCain 83.8
Independents: Obama 50.0, McCain 35.2
Already voted: Obama 53.8, McCain 41.4
Males: Obama 48.8, McCain 43.7
Females: Obama 51.3, McCain 42.4
White: McCain 51.8, Obama 40.7
Hispanic Obama 70.8, McCain 25.9
AA: Obama 94.8, McCain 2.4
Moderates: Obama 64.2, McCain 28.2

The last two weeks, the differences have ranged from Obama +7.7 on 10-23 to Obama +4.9 on 10-26.

I have listed the internals from 10-26 below so you can see the changes from today:

Zogby internals Sunday October 26

West: Obama 45.9, McCain 46.6
Holding base: Obama 88.2, McCain 88.3
Independents: Obama 49.7, McCain 35.9
Already voted: Obama 57.3, McCain 39.5
Males: Obama 43.7, McCain 47.6
Females: Obama 54.8, McCain 40.8
White: McCain 52.9, Obama 40.9
Hispanic Obama 69.7, McCain 22.9
AA: Obama 90.0, McCain 7.2
Moderates: Obama 60.1, McCain 30.5

I had been pointing out that Zogby's internal West region numbers went against common sense last week, which showed McCain ahead in a region which includes huge Obama states such as California. Between Sunday and today (Friday Oct 31), that West region number has moved Obama +9.7 in the region. The key is obviously not California, but rather Nevada and Colorado (if Zogby has CO in the West and not central - not sure?).

The male vote has reversed itself, now favoring Obama. On the other hand, the female vote has narrowed. Both of these changes could be statistical regression to the mean. That is, statistically, it would not be surprising to see Males move back to a more even position (perhaps Obama +2) and Females to a larger Obama position (perhaps Obama +10) with the overall number at Obama +6.

The only other change which on surface is noticeable has to do with already voted. Again, it makes sense that this change is statistical as well. As more people vote, the difference between Obama and McCain will get closer but reach a resting point The last three days Obama had been at 53.7, 52.3 and 55.4).

Finally, the AA vote is more Obama now as well as the moderate vote, although again these changes may be noise.

Hi bmr

As a late-night west-coaster (Oregon) I often end up talking to myself on this site. Those are huge numbers for Merkley, far larger than I've seen. People have been voting for a week so polls must include many votes cast.

I say Obama gets 368 EV's.

Tsunami.

PPP Michigan
Obama 55
McCain 42

Strategic Vision PA - O 49 M 44.

Can't wait to see the slobber poured over this mess.

Republican Pollster Strategic Vision

NH O 50% M 41%
MI O 54% M 41%
PA O 49% M 44%

The bottom line is even with this Republican leaning pollster McLiar can not get to 45% and trust me Strategic Vision is trying to get him there.

zogby as yesterday 50-43 ... seems no momentum.

well looks like nm is tied according to i think they said the asu-southwest poll.

PA Morning Call tracker is finally listed on RCP for yesterday.

O 54%
M 41%

I am more then happy to split the difference between this poll and Strategic Vision.

@BUS:
Strategic Vision PA - O 49 M 44.

Can't wait to see the slobber poured over this mess.

Last Strategic Vision PA poll was only O+7. Even according to this pollster, McCain is running out of time fast in PA.

funny strategic was the only poll in mid single digits last week. so i would say this poll is not the poll to go by.

ASU-Southwest Poll:

Arizona: McCain 51 Obama 40

New Mexico: McCain 46 Obama 46

Nevada: McCain 44 Obama 46

http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2008/10/27/daily67.html

uh pazienza nevada is 48obama mccain 44

i dont think any of these polls are being real. they are all more partisan. i say this because you have one poll with 10 for new mexico in obamas favor then this asu poll with it tied. but of course joe scarborough cling to this asu poll and says the race is tightening. then he says if mccain wins arizona big then the rest of the southw est will fall to mccain. of course this is not true. overperforming in your home state does nto mean it wil influence others states.if that true mccain would have no chance of winning indiana, missouri, or ohio.

The last Strategic Vision poll had Obama only up 7 in PA, during a time when every other pollster showed Obama with a double digit lead. PA has a 1.2 million registered democrat advantage over republicans. The Obama camp will be getting out the vote like crazy in Pennsylvania, knowing that it's McCain's only chance of winning; meanwhile, McCain has decided to cut money from his GOTV operation and use it to buy and produce more 30 second TV ads. Are there really that many people left who can be swayed by ads at this point? It's getting kinda late in the game. If his attacks on "the biggest celebrity in the World" who has "extremist ties" and "isn't ready to lead... YET!" haven't worked up to this point, what makes him so confident that they will work now?

Then again, I think Obama will pick up Ohio, so even entertaining for a second the notion that McCain picks up PA, it all comes out in a wash. Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado + Ohio - Pennsylvania would still = a win for Obama. And he's not even BEHIND in Pennsylvania, so I don't get what the fuss is about. If the right wing wants to go for it, let the go for it. PA is a trap for republicans, sort of like how Florida is a trap for democrats. The Ohio poll numbers have really been the most neglected polling story this week. All 9 Ohio polls in RCP's current cycle show Obama ahead by 3 points or more, and an average of 5.8. Compare that to the previous 9 Ohio polls in the last cycle, which showed Obama ahead in 7 and McCain ahead in 2. It may sound far fetched, but could there be a Joe The Plumber backlash going on against McCain in Ohio? I remember a reporter for one of the news stations interviewing some people who live in the same town as Joe who have had their homes foreclosed and who are losing everything, and they pretty much told the reporter that they could not relate at all with Joe The Plumber. I doubt Ohioans appreciate someone like JT Plumber getting out there on the national stage making himself and the rest of the state look foolish. Joes recent attempts to get a book deal and land a country music recording contract probably don't help matters. It would be a bit ironic if the man McCain thought would help salvage his campaign ultimately ended up having a hand in costing him a crucial swing state.

But this is just one mans theory.

saywhat90:

Thanks for the correction.

well joe scraborough claims ohio is tightening

in fact he just said new mexico is now tied.of course he is basing this off one poll at arizona state

i beginning to think mccain will win because the media keeps pulling this ridiculous why cant obama close the deal narrative.

Thankfully he managed to fit in his near-infamous "stump" line about Liberals:

"Munching Sea-Bass at La Sur"

Yeah....we're all rich elitists with an unwaivering taste for Sea-Bass and a penchant for 4-Star restaurants. Scarborough is an unapologetic member of the GOP Spin Machine...he should self-induced vertigo after the non-stop spinning he has been doing the last three weeks. Keep spewing the nonsenes Joe...

The cynical, skeptical Liberal in me has a rather irrational fear that the non-stop discussion regarding the "tightening" of the race has more to do with the systematic voter supression effort and tainted voting machines than it does a desire to keep the Republican supporters involved. After watching "Hacking Democracy" a couple of times, I am convinced that the GOP can steal this thing and use the last ten days of "the race is tightening" and "internal GOP numbers show McCain is winning" as a justification for outright theft of this thing.

In the words of Rachel Maddow, can anyone talk me down? lol

@saywhat90

Scarbourough is a right-wing hack, nothing more nothing less. He is trying to keep the spirits alive for the conservatives. He knows McCain is pretty much toast at this point. Did he really say Ohio is tightening? Good lord. The last 9 polls in Ohio show Obama leads of: +4, +4, +9, + 4, +7, +3, +5, +9, +7. These polls would disagree with Joe The Morning Show Host. Joe The Plumber appears to be tanking in Ohio. I figured it would be the exact opposite, but it's not. Even Rove and Rasmussen are predicting a decisive electoral college win for Obama. If the conservatives honestly still think New Mexico is in play, I'd like to have some of what they're smoking. PA is one thing, given the demographic differences in the rural and big city areas. I could see why McCain MIGHT think he has a chance there. But as always, I expect PA will turn out to be a trap for republicans and for Obama to win it by mid-to-high single digits. But McCain hasn't even put up a fight in New Mexico. Meanwhile, while talking about NM and PA, the conservatives are losing focus of red states that actually could flip for Obama such as Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio and Florida. All polls in those states show a tight race and in most cases even an Obama lead. But if they want to spend their final days talking about Pennsylvania and New Mexico, both showing solid Obama leads, then they can go right ahead.

I will not be surprised if the Republicans steal, or try to steal the election.

A prediction from Europe (not a wish, but a foresight): Obama winner by landslide, almost all the toss up states turning blue, and a few very hard bad surprises for the GOP.
Except for some "last century" conservatism, already old fashioned, there is no reason for anyone to vote McCain, as honorable he may be.