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US: Obama 52, McCain 41 (Daily Kos 10/11-13)

Topics: PHome

Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/11-13, 08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 52, McCain 41

 

Comments
[nemesis]:

First!

It's kinda scary though, how these polls are all tightening. What's that you say? The spread increased by a point today? That's very interesting...

Either way, it's mostly statistical noise at this point, and I think it will likely stay that way until the election.

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JFactor:

Same old, same old. McCain needs a game-changer and fast. It's also good to notice that Obama has probably hit his ceiling. It's unlikely that he will grow his lead beyond these numbers.
___________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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DTM:

Looking at the charts here at Pollster, it is actually not clear to me that Obama has hit a "ceiling" (although there is some preliminary evidence that McCain may be approaching a "floor"). Of course trends can change, but right now it seems Obama is still in a gradual upward trend.

By the way, as I mentioned in a prior post, I do think it is worth noting that Obama has a voter-contact and advertisement strategy that involves steadily increasing activity straight through to the election. That in turn would help explain a gradual effect whereby Obama converts more undecideds than McCain in the final weeks of polling. But we shall see.

____________________

boomshak:

KARL MARX (circa 1875):
"From each according to his ability, to each according to his need (or needs) is a slogan popularized by Karl Marx in his 1875 Critique of the Gotha Program.[1] The phrase summarizes the principles that, under a communist system, every person should contribute to society to the best of their ability and consume from society in proportion to their needs, regardless of how much they have contributed. In the Marxist view, such an arrangement will be made possible by the abundance of goods and services that a developed communist society will produce; the idea is that there will be enough to satisfy everyone's needs.[2][3]"

BARACK OBAMA (circa 2008):
“It’s not that I want to punish your success. I just want to make sure that everybody who is behind you, that they’ve got a chance for success too,” Obama responded. “My attitude is that if the economy’s good for folks from the bottom up, it’s gonna be good for everybody … I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.”

BE AFRAID, BE VERY VERY AFRAID...

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

I laughed when I saw 538's McShame's win percentage at 5.1%!

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/today%27s%20polls

Why are WI and MN still light Blue on Pollster (among others)???

____________________

JFactor:

I don't think Obama's going to have more than one or two polls that show him beyond 52%. I might be wrong for sure but Rasmussen has had Obama between 50-52% for two weeks now, Daily Kos has been around 50-53% for Obama for ages now too.

Now that the financial crisis has stabilized a bit it's hard for me to see Obama rising above the ceiling that he's had for the past two weeks in every poll.
________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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BOOMFAIL:

boombatty, why do you keep posting the same garbage over and over again. Your world must really suck right now (and for at least the next 8 years!)
You do know that you're seen as a joke, right??

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

tell us boom, will the race be tied by this Sunday? Or did you mean last Sunday? Or perhaps a Sunday in 2012?

Spew more garbage you pathetic scumbag.

____________________

Commander_King:

Boomshak stfu

____________________

m913:

@boomshak

Your recent post seems to be a strained guilt-by-association. Do you really fear the idea that in a community we all gain when we spread the opportunity for advancement? Are you opposed to public school funding? Libraries? Common defense?

____________________

JFactor:

Again, saying that Obama is a socialist is unintellectual and ignorant.

Btw, Marx was a ground-breaking political philosopher and many of his ideas were modern and brilliant. Marx is not a boogeyman like so many people especially here in the US want to think.
______________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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huetdebd:

@boomshak

you are an idiot. to assume obama is a marxist is downright ignorence on your part. it's proven that if the middle class has money to buy goods then the upper class makes more money. the rich can create all the products they want but if no one can afford them then they are wasting their time. it's like a cook at a restaurant making dinner for a bunch of people who can't afford to come to eat at your restaurant.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Can you imagine if boomshak was running McCain's campaign? He claims that McCain is running the weakest campaign ever, yet if McCain used the talking points that boom**** keeps bringing up, he'd be down 30 points.

Keep it up boom, keep throwing at us reason after reason why we should support Obama and why you are a pathetic scumbag.

____________________

UpperLeft:

@Boomshak:

Boom, how much Marx have you actually read? And isn't it equally likely that Obama was paraphrasing Kennedy, rather than Marx?

Standard redistributive policies do not equal socialism or communism in any form.

Graduated income tax? Redistributive. Social security? Redistributive. Farm subsidies? Redistributive.

Obama has never proposed anything radical like raising the marginal tax rates to where they were in the 1970s. Nor will he--Americans have largely gotten to a consensus around a max 40% tax rate, and if Obama did go off the deep end he's be deep-sixed politically pretty fast.

You only lessen your own credibility when you start flapping around like a chicken with its head cut off.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

roflmao! McCain and Palin campaigning in PA today.

what a joke.

____________________

boomshak:

NOTE TO OBAMA:

Communism has been tried. Doesn't work.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:
____________________

GrampsMcCain:

Ras Poll:
Obama 53
Boomshak 25
McCain 10

____________________

kerrchdavis:

NOTE TO BOOMSHAK:

Republican leadership has been tried. Doesn't work.

chump.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

@kerrchdavis

Let them waste their time in places they have no chance of winning! I'm hoping they make yet another stop in WI, where they are now down 17%!!

Landslide Baby Landslide!!

____________________

huetdebd:

@ kerrchdavis

lmao. couldn't agree more.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomfail

I mean, what else can we expect? Judging by their supporters e.g. boomshak, they are obviously the candidates of the stupid. And candidates of the stupid do stupid things.

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jonny87:

drudge...ras: 50 obama, 45 mccain

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muckinello:

I bet Ras will show Obama increasing the lead... drudge is not posting that "early bird special" today he he he

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kerrchdavis:

I mean, they'd be dicking around in Hawaii if they had enough public finances left to afford the airfare.

what a joke.

____________________

muckinello:

My bad..lol

____________________

muckinello:

Obama builds his lead
UTICA, New York - Democratic Party presidential nominee Barack Obama moved outside the margin of error in his race against Republican John McCain, leading now by 6.2 percentage points in the latest edition of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll.

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DTM:

@JFactor

If you look at Pollster's national chart, you will see that they still have Obama in an overall upward trend over the last couple weeks. Note though that they currently have him at about 50.4%, so it is true that something like 52 remains on the higher side for him. On the other hand, if his trend actually approached 52, that would represent another significant improvement.

But to be clear, I'm not saying I know what the polling is going to do. I'm just pointing out that when you look at all the polls and scientifically calculate the overall trend--as Pollster does--Obama appears to still be in an upward trend as of the moment.

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jonny87:

muckinello,

bad timing..lol

____________________

jamesia:

Message to Republicans:

Obama is winning Florida. It's over.

Message to Democrats:

Who loves seeing Florida dark blue on the map?

____________________

wotan:

Okay. I'm a neophyte. Who is dailykos and what is its political slant?

____________________

muckinello:

Zogby has a table
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1585

Obama is at the high mark and McCain at the low mark of that table.

I predict a short night on election nite. McCain can give his concession speech before his bed time!

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@muckinello

McCain would be giving his concession speech this week if he wasn't senile.

He's still campaigning in PA, roflmao! In the meantime, CO and Florida has sold out of blue paint.

what a joke. 8 years of the worst President in history and the best the Repubs can come up with is this clown? What a pathetic, dying, piece of crap party.

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BOOMFAIL:

@wotan

No slant whatsoever. It is where you should get all your political news!

:)

Landslide Baby Landslide!

____________________

muckinello:

@wotan:
Ask Boom.. he will tell you that Kos is KOMMUNIST!
Actually, they are liberal. I think they represent the most positive scenario for Obama but it is not completely out of the question that he will reach those marks, if the mainstream pollsters underestimate young voters and enthusiasm in the Obama's camp

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DTM:

By the way, the obviously conclusion from the juxtaposition of those two passages is that Obama is definitely NOT a Marxist.

Obama is arguing for improving the economic opportunities for lower-income people relative to the status quo on the ground that doing so will be good for the overall economy (note he makes no mention of "need"). So Obama's argument actually ties the economic benefits lower-income workers would receive to their contribution to the overall economy, whereas Marx was explicitly arguing for breaking that tie.

So while this already should have been obvious, again this is a good example of how Obama is very much NOT a Marxist.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@wotan

boomshak is our village idiot. In my entire life, I have never met anyone who could be wrong about EVERY SINGLE THING.

That is, till I started reading his posts here. Even complete morons get it right occasionally.

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GrampsMcCain:

Ras still at 50-45, that is right at the edge of where I like to see it. I would be a little more comfortable with 51-44, this is still a little closer then I would like to see it.

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JFactor:

@ DTM:

You're absolutely right. The mathematically calculated trend is going upwards. However, the thing with these trends are that they are quite slow in adapting to new situations. When looking at the most reliable daily trackers the situation has been very stable for a long time.

My personal estimate is that the race is now somewhere along the lines of Obama 50-52 vs. McCain 43-45. That's about a seven point difference. Pollster's average is now 50.4 and I'm pretty sure it's not going to grow over 52.0. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that this race has been at this dynamic for about 1,5 weeks now and that Pollster's average has now slowly risen to the correct level (these kind of trend estimates are by their nature conservative and a bit slow).
___________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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DTM:

@wotan

I think the most relevant point is that Daily Kos is just the sponsor of the poll, and the poll is actually conducted by Research 2000, a well-established nonpartisan polling organization.

____________________

boomshak:

@DTM:

This poll only includes 26% Republicans in their sample. Non-partisan? No. Bought and paid for? Yes.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@boomshak

"This poll only includes 26% Republicans in their sample. Non-partisan? No. Bought and paid for? Yes."

Please give us a source to back up your bull**** you complete idiot.

@wotan

See what I mean?

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Commander_King:

Boomshak stfu

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huetdebd:

are we allowed to make stuff up like boomshak? can i just say that mccain is from another planet hell bent on destroying the earth and that palin is his evil femme bot? i mean, boomshak tries to make his B.S sound good but it's still B.S.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@boomshak

NOTE TO BUSH, MCCAIN, AND THE REPUBLICANS

STUPIDITY HAS BEEN TRIED, AND IT DOESN'T WORK.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

if it looks like bull****, walks like bull**** and smells like bull**** then by golly, it probably came out of boomshak's mouth.

what a pathetic excuse for a human being. epic fail.

____________________

DTM:

@JFactor

I gather our disagreement is about whether or not it makes sense to focus on just a small subset of the available national polls (what you called "the most reliable daily trackers") when assessing trends. But again, really all we can do is wait and see.

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decided:

boomshak -

you probably warned everybody about Bill Clinton too back then that he is a communist/marxist.

My your measure, I would LOVE to have a "communist" or "marxist" president!

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jeepdad:

When do the hotline and battleground national polls come out?

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kerrchdavis:

Rasmussen: "Obama and McCain are now running even among men, but Obama has an eleven point advantage among women."

Here is my question: If Obama is leading by 11 among women and tied among men, then how the hell is he only up by 5 considering that Women usually make up 52% of the electorate? It should be at least 6, no?

Ok, so maybe I'm grasping :D

____________________

huetdebd:

@herrchdavis.

i come on here every day and read the comments but never make one myself until today. i'm really bored at work right now. but i love how boomshak makes the dumbest comments and you call him out on all of them and he never has anything to say back. makes you wonder who this boomshak person is.

____________________

jonny87:

gramps,

your right, 5 points is a lil too close. 6 points or more has a much better ring to it.

____________________

bill kapra:

@boomshak

Not to help you belabor one campaign remark but...

The famous Marx quotation is actually a restatement of a sentiment quite common among nineteenth century thinkers. Its Marxian formulation is generally agreed to have been coined not by Marx but Rousseau.

Now, Rousseau is hardly a radical influence! In fact, the American dream is largely inspired by philosophers of that stripe.

At the end of the day, Americans do believe that we all do well when we fairly share our burdens. We believe in a progressive tax structure. We believe that wealth has largely resulted from the enterprise-friendly society that we collectively construct.

Free enterprise and entrepreneurialism are the great engines of America's wealth. But the tracks on which that engine runs are laid by public spending and shared burdens.

In times of war and economic crisis, we all need to share the load.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@huetdebd

he's really dumb, whoever he is. I've never met anyone so shamelessly biased in my life to the point that they'll cherry pick EVERY poll, constantly lie and make **** up, spew bull**** talking points, make RIDICULOUSLY stupid predictions and just personify "idiotic" in general. But to be completely honest, he is rather entertaining :D

____________________

DTM:

@boomshak

Apparently R2K isn't pushing leaners hard for the purposes of partisan identification. Accordingly, their current break down of 35% D, 26% R, 39% Independent/Other isn't surprising. For example, early in 2008 both Pew and Gallup did surveys specifically designed to measure partisan ID. Pew got 36% D, 27% R, 37% no party, and Gallup got 40% D, 26% R, and 34% neither. So, again, R2K's party ID numbers, once you realize it isn't pushing leaners, shouldn't be a surprise.

____________________

huetdebd:

gallup today O+10. if mccain takes the gloves off at the debates wednesday he'd better have brass knuckels on.

____________________

jeepdad:

New SUSA PA poll: Obama +15

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f459ed4f-3465-434c-9116-8dc250b1fbc0

And Obama "only" at 80% with blacks in this poll. He will get 90% minimum.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

and yet McCain keeps campaigning there.

what a joke.

____________________

wakeup:

As market numbers go up, Obama numbers will go down.

____________________

Save US:

@Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

"@boomshak

NOTE TO BUSH, MCCAIN, AND THE REPUBLICANS

STUPIDITY HAS BEEN TRIED, AND IT DOESN'T WORK."


Hahaha..... roflmao... funny

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@huetdebd

My theory is that boomsarah is actually Sarah Palin. He lies constantly, he seems really out of touch and it makes sense that Sarah has to be promoting the campaign in some way. Why not by trolling around the blog sites, because lord knows she isn't doing interviews.

boompalin never has anyone been so wrong, so often and by such a wide margin. Really is like watching a car crash in slow motion over and over and over...

____________________

Dear Mr.Boomshak,

Do you really and truly believe that Mr.Obama is a Marxist?

Yours Faithfully
Disgusted of TW

p.s.

I was reading the Manchester Guardian over breakfast this morning. I read this and nearly dropped my buttered crumpet. You may find this article equally stimulating.

____________________

wakeup:

There is no way Obama wins PA by 15... no way.

____________________

bill kapra:

Battleground at 13 POINTS !!!! 53-40

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@wakeup

wake up. Todays polls should be reflecting the good day Dow had yesterday, and yet none of Obama's poll numbers have gone down.

wake up.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@wake up

right on cue. Here come the battleground numbers showing a clear swing to McCain after yesterdays good market surge.

nice job.

____________________

jeepdad:

And Hotline poll steady at Obama +6 ...

____________________

wakeup:

It will take about a week for the strengths of the economy to show up in the polls. Once people look at Obama's executive experience at Woods and Annenberg...

____________________

huetdebd:

@oneangydrwarf.
i have to disagree with the boompailan theory. although boomshak is beyond stupid i believe, and most of you may find this shocking, that boomshak is smarter than sarah. i don't think she could come up with have the bull **** boomshak does. for example "when putin rears his little head, where does he go? alaska." can anyone name anything dumber that any politician has ever said. even dan quayle (sp?)

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@wakeup

If McCain is going to have any chance (he doesnt) things need to turn around NOW. Not next week. People are ALREADY voting.

wake up.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

DOUBLE DIGITS BABY!!

(And on boombatty's favorite right leaning poll to boot!!)

____________________

huetdebd:

pardon all the spelling errors. a. i'm not paying that close attention to spelling. b. spelling isn't my strong suite, recognizing that democratic policies are far superior is more my thing.

____________________

wakeup:

Early voting figures are lower than expected. Please understand that 3 weeks is an eternity... plenty of time for people to wakeup.

____________________

muckinello:

What? GWU has Obama +13? Man, in I don't get Boom spin on this I am gonna get CRAAAAZY!

____________________

huetdebd:

@wakeup

good to have you back boomshak. it's been kind of boring on here without you. change the name all you want but we know it's you. not all republicans are that stupid. or are they?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@wakeup

3 weeks for about 42% of the country to wake up and vote for Obama. Although, 25% still love Bush and there is no hope for them.

3 weeks is not an eternity to erase a 7 point deficit when people are already voting, everyone thinks everything you say is a lie, you have the most pathetic VP candidate in history and you're busy campaigning in PA where you are down 15.

wake up.

____________________

Disgusted of Tunbridge Wells:

Dear Mr.Boomshak

Sincerest apologies, here is promised 'link '.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/oct/13/election-acorn-voter-fraud

My familiarity with the tools of the interweb are still at the rudimentary stage, alas.

Yours Faithfully
Digusted of TW

____________________

muckinello:

@wakeup:
Actually I disagree with your last statement. Most historic records show that people will not change their mind once they make it. You can check all what you want. Three weeks is a long time but, aside from earth shattering news, this race is solidifying by the minute. Obama is polling above 50% national and in key state races. He will not lose that hard base. He may lose 50% of the remaining uncommitted if wall street stays positive (and that does not mean that the economy is strong, there is going to be one more job report before the election and it will be still very bad).

____________________

wakeup:

Call me delusional but there is no way Obama is up 15 in PA. Early voting numbers are far lower than predicted... something to consider.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@wakeup

Ok, we'll take your word for it. In fact, all the polls that show Obama up 12-15 in PA are wrong because you say "there is no way."

thanks for clearing that up. The polls are wrong guys.

____________________

wakeup:

A small % of Obama supporters are simply along for the ride... it will not take much to knock them off the wagon.

____________________

muckinello:

@wakeup/boonshak:
Where do you see those early voting stats? You may want to know that PA does NOT have early voting. Man.. gimme some of the stuff you smoke!

____________________

wakeup:

A serious question... is push polling illegal?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@wakeup

actually, polling shows that supporters of Obama are far more enthusiastic and firm in their support than McCain's. It is much easier to convince McCain supporters to switch sides than vice versa.

so, wake up.

____________________

wakeup:

I am sorry, I was speaking of Ohio with regards to early voting...

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@wakeup

lol! pulled those early voting PA stats out of your ass but got caught with your fist still inserted, huh?

it's not as easy as you think to make stuff up.

____________________

wakeup:

Allow me to talk raw politics... it is not too late to muddy the waters. If you toss enough mud some will stick despite being out spent 18-1 in certain TV markets. Some Obama supporters who are along for the ride will be turned off enough not to vote.

____________________

huetdebd:

i don't know about you guys but i do like CNN's poll of polls. it still shows obama up by 8. you can like one poll and not others but average them all and obama is still up by huge numbers. you can't argue with that wakeup/boomshak

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@wakeup.

If you keep tossing mud all over the place, you start hitting undecideds in the face.

not smart. wake up.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Wakeup I feel sorry for you. Denial is tough to swallow.

____________________

wakeup:

First day in weeks my local paper had good economic news on the front page... what happened to all the Great Depression talk?

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@wakeup

Must not be too many foreclosures happening on mars.

____________________

huetdebd:

@wakeup
just because there is a lite drizzle of rain in a drought doesn't mean we are out of the drought yet. and just cause you have water to drink doesn't mean people aren't thirsty. try thinking of others for a minute and you'll understand that democracy is about all the people not the priveleged few.

____________________

wakeup:

My wife just bought a car, my friend just bought a house... credit freeze??? That is why I am so bewildered by Obama, he keeps saying how terrible things are. The basic fundamentals of the economy are strong.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@wakeup

If you really think that our economy is strong, you are completely out of touch with America. Unemployment is at a decade high, the deficit is at its highest ever, home foreclosure rates are through the roof...

people are suffering...WAKE UP!

____________________

DTM:

Of course McCain/Palin have been throwing mud for a while now. What seems to have happened is that the mud-slinging did in fact drive up Obama's negatives among Republicans, but also drove up McCain/Palin's negatives among both Independents and Democrats. Which of course is a net losing strategy for McCain/Palin in a year where Democrats outnumber Republicans.

____________________

wakeup:

If you can not afford a house... rent.

____________________

raisethewhiteflag:

boomshak:
KARL MARX (circa 1875):
"From each according to his ability, to each according to his need (or needs) is a slogan popularized by Karl Marx in his 1875 Critique of the Gotha Program.[1] The phrase summarizes the principles that, under a communist system, every person should contribute to society to the best of their ability and consume from society in proportion to their needs, regardless of how much they have contributed. In the Marxist view, such an arrangement will be made possible by the abundance of goods and services that a developed communist society will produce; the idea is that there will be enough to satisfy everyone's needs.[2][3]"

BARACK OBAMA (circa 2008):
“It’s not that I want to punish your success. I just want to make sure that everybody who is behind you, that they’ve got a chance for success too,” Obama responded. “My attitude is that if the economy’s good for folks from the bottom up, it’s gonna be good for everybody … I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.”

BE AFRAID, BE VERY VERY AFRAID...
hmmm I am sure the fdolks making 40k a yr which makes up most odf the country will be very very afraid!
sorry but its your pocket thats afraid boomcrack... your tuffluck!

____________________

raisethewhiteflag:

boomshak:
KARL MARX (circa 1875):
"From each according to his ability, to each according to his need (or needs) is a slogan popularized by Karl Marx in his 1875 Critique of the Gotha Program.[1] The phrase summarizes the principles that, under a communist system, every person should contribute to society to the best of their ability and consume from society in proportion to their needs, regardless of how much they have contributed. In the Marxist view, such an arrangement will be made possible by the abundance of goods and services that a developed communist society will produce; the idea is that there will be enough to satisfy everyone's needs.[2][3]"

BARACK OBAMA (circa 2008):
“It’s not that I want to punish your success. I just want to make sure that everybody who is behind you, that they’ve got a chance for success too,” Obama responded. “My attitude is that if the economy’s good for folks from the bottom up, it’s gonna be good for everybody … I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.”

BE AFRAID, BE VERY VERY AFRAID...

@boomcrack

hmmm I am sure the fdolks making 40k a yr which makes up most odf the country will be very very afraid!
sorry but its your pocket thats afraid boomcrack... your tuffluck!

____________________

cinnamonape:

Boomshat: The necessaries of life occasion the great expense of the poor. They find it difficult to get food, and the greater part of their little revenue is spent in getting it. The luxuries and vanities of life occasion the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. A tax upon house-rents, therefore, would in general fall heaviest upon the rich; and in this sort of inequality there would not, perhaps, be anything very unreasonable. It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.

~Adam Smith

____________________

Paul:

Overall change is noise. Party ID numbers did not change at all. With Independents, Obama is +9. McCain picked up 1 point with men, Obama picked up 1 point with women.

____________________



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