Articles and Analysis


US: Obama 52, McCain 41 (Daily Kos 10/12-14)

Topics: PHome

Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/12-14, 08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Obama 52, McCain 41



first! No change...Steady as she goes...



Can anyone seriously stand listening to either Nicole Wallace or Douglas Holtz-Eakin without wanting to break something?



LA Times/Bloomberg 10/10 - 10/13 1030 LV 50 41



I think the CBS/NYT poll and the R2K tracker tend to lend credence to one another.



Above figures were cut and paste -- 50 for Obama, 41 for McCain.



there bad, but nancy pfotenhauer makes me want to slit my wrists!




Yeah Nancy just makes me question my sanity. She and Tucker Bounds are so hard to watch. They just keep saying things that are so patently false, they throw on that fake smile and just roll on.

I wonder how they sleep at night.



The polls - Stable, Hardening.

Another steady Obama performance tonight and the polls solidify through to election day.




Obama 80.1
McLiar 19.9



Excellent WSJ article on "Citizen of the Year" Bill Ayers.



Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Obama Dominating Among Early Voters in Five Swing States
SurveyUSA has a lot of good habits as a pollster, and one of them is breaking out the results of early and absentee voting in states where such things are allowed. So far, SurveyUSA has conducted polling in five states where some form of early voting was underway. In each one, Barack Obama is doing profoundly better among early voters than among the state's electorate as a whole:

... Poll % Voted Non-EarlyState Date Early Early Voters Likely Voters====================================================NM 10/13 10% Obama +23% Obama +6%OH 10/13 12% Obama +18% Obama +4%GA 10/12 18% Obama +6% McCain +11%IA 10/9 14% Obama +34% Obama +10%NC 10/6 5% Obama +34% McCain +5%We should caveat that these are not hard-and-fast numbers. Estimates of early voting results are subject to the same statistical vagaries as any other sort of subgroup analysis, such as response bias and small sample sizes.

Nevertheless, Obama is leading by an average of 23 points among early voters in these five states, states which went to George W. Bush by an average of 6.5 points in 2004.

Is this a typical pattern for a Democrat? Actually, it's not. According to a study by Kate Kenski at the University of Arizona, early voters leaned Republican in both 2000 and 2004; with Bush earning 62.2 percent of their votes against Al Gore, and 60.4 percent against John Kerry. In the past, early voters have also tended to be older than the voting population as a whole and more male than the population as a whole, factors which would seem to cut against Obama or most other Democrats.

Now certainly, early voters tend to be your stauncher partisans rather than your uncommitted voters -- just 1-2 percent of early voters in 2000 and 2004 reported that they would have voted differently if they'd waited until election day. So it's unlikely that John McCain is actually losing all that many persuadable voters to the early voter tallies.

What these results would seem to suggest, however, is that there are fairly massive advantages for the Democrats in enthusiasm and/or turnout operations. They imply that Obama is quite likely to turn out his base in large numbers; the question is whether the Republicans will be able to do the same.

Keep in mind that there are veteran pollsters like Ann Selzer who think that most of her colleagues are vastly understating the degree to which youth and minority turnout is liable to improve in this election; Selzer's polls have been 5-6 points more favorable to Obama than the averages in the states that she's surveyed. So while these early voting numbers could turn out to be something of a curiosity, they could alternatively represent a canary in the coal mine for a coming Democratic turnout wave



morning all,
totally off-topic question - who is going to blog live during the debates tonight? unless i get pulled down in a late meeting at work, i'm here in the latest thread posting my thoughts as they occur, boom-like.

btw, boomshack, i have Obama's birth certificate in my vault here in MN. i am ready to produce it in the court of law. you may sleep at ease tonight; this election will not end on a technicality.



I don't mean to get ahead of ourselves but I have a technical question: Does any one know how the Senate seats of Obama and Biden, or McCain for that matter, will be filled in the next Congress? Will the Governors of the states choose a replacement or will there be a special election. This varies from state to state, so I was curious.



538 has McShame's chances at 4.2%. I think that's a bit generous. :)

Also, with McShame under $20 at Intrade, what a great opportunity for his supporters to put their money where their mouth is! Can't be any worse than McShame wasting his money in solidly Blue states, my friends.

All the Rethug whiners who claimed Obama should be leading by double digits when his lead was only 5 points are starting to get what they asked for! Can't wait to see where the numbers end up after tonight's debate. (The one where McShame is gonna kick his ass.)

Also, if I hear one more segment on TV about the voter fraud at Acorn, I will puke. Do any of these Rethugs actually think that "Mickey Mouse" will actually show up on election day and try to vote?! Of more concern should be the voter suppression that always takes place and the intimidation especially in minority neighborhoods to prevent them from having their vote count.


Try to discredit this election all you want Rethugs. There is a huge movement in the country that will be a sweeping change. Flush the garbage and get ready for some real change!

Landslide Baby Landslide




The govs. of the states in question will pick the person who replaces them. Since both states are held by Dem gov. It is would be likely that Dem's replaces Biden and Obama



Prediction today for Rasmussen
Obama 50
McCain 45

not alot of movement in the trackers outside of Battleground yesterday.



I'm going 51-44 with Ras Gramps...Just my take.



The race is pretty much settling in. It will take a real bad mistake by either candidate to make the numbers move much. We have to assume it will tighten in the coming days. If undecideds still have not gone with Obama, they probably won't. With the conidtion the economy is in and the ridiculously bad campaign that McCain has run, I would assume that Obama is not going to go much higher and McCain will trend up a little. Could be wrong, and probably am, but that's what I think. It will still be enough for a landslide EV win.




Why are you trying to disenfranchise Mickey Mouse?

Actually, what IF Mickey Mouse did show up to vote?

I say Rasmussen is 51-45.



100 U.S. Ambassadors Endorse McCain-Palin

ARLINGTON, VA — McCain-Palin 2008 today announced that more than 100 former U.S. ambassadors are endorsing Senator John McCain and Governor Sarah Palin for president and vice president.

Prominent former U.S. ambassadors endorsing the McCain-Palin ticket include former Ambassador to Japan, Senate Majority Leader and White House Chief of Staff Howard Baker; President George H. W. Bush, former Ambassador to the United Nations; former Ambassador to Yugoslavia and former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger; former Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton; former Secretary of Defense and former Ambassador to Portugal, Frank Carlucci III; former Ambassador to the Vatican and Secretary of Veterans Affairs Jim Nicholson; and Ambassadors Richard Burt (Germany), Bruce Gelb (Belgium), Margaret Heckler (Ireland), John L. Loeb (Denmark), Ed Ney (Canada) and Julia Chang Bloch (Nepal), the first U.S. ambassador of Asian descent.

Democrat Mark W. Erwin, a former Hillary Clinton supporter and an ambassador during the Clinton administration, is co-chair of the group. “I will vote for John McCain because the differences between the two candidates are so vast and profound,” he said.

“Senator Obama does not have sufficient leadership experience, nor has he been tested in difficult times,” Erwin said in his endorsement.

Other co-chairmen of the group called “Former U.S. Ambassadors for McCain/Palin” are former U.S. Ambassador to Sweden Gregory J. Newell and former Ambassador Gilbert A. Robinson, both of whom served in the Reagan administration. Newell also served as an assistant to President Gerald Ford and as Assistant Secretary of State. Robinson was special adviser to Secretary of State George Shultz, Director of the Office of Public Diplomacy and Deputy Director of the United States Information Agency.

“Nobody could ask for a greater show of confidence,” Sen. McCain commented. “These former ambassadors are outstanding men and women who have served their country in foreign lands with great distinction and devotion to the values we all hold dear. They have a deep knowledge of the challenges facing this country abroad as well as at home. I am honored by their endorsement.”

Ambassador Robinson added, “The endorsements from this country’s most experienced foreign affairs experts are still pouring in. This demonstrates the overwhelming admiration and respect they have for John McCain’s leadership and the confidence they have in the historic McCain-Palin ticket.”



Now you just gave all those people looking for their 15 minutes of fame a way to get on TV! :)




How many of these ambassadors are Republican appointees?

PS you keep on asking for 20 points, getting closer!



Hey boom,

Which one of these is the outlier?

Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Tracking 10/12 - 10/14 1210 LV 48 44 Obama +4
LA Times/Bloomberg 10/10 - 10/13 1030 LV 50 41 Obama +9
CBS News/NY Times 10/10 - 10/13 699 LV 53 39 Obama +14
Rasmussen Tracking 10/11 - 10/13 3000 LV 50 45 Obama +5
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/11 - 10/13 829 LV 48 42 Obama +6
Gallup Tracking (Traditional)* 10/11 - 10/13 2140 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Gallup Tracking (Expanded)* 10/11 - 10/13 2289 LV 53 43 Obama +10
GW/Battleground Tracking 10/08 - 10/13 800 LV 53 40 Obama +13
IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/07 - 10/13 825 LV 45 42 Obama +3
USA Today/Gallup (Traditional)* 10/10 - 10/12 761 LV 50 46 Obama +4
USA Today/Gallup (Expanded)* 10/10 - 10/12 1030 LV 52 45 Obama +7
ABC News/Wash Post 10/08 - 10/11 766 LV 53 43 Obama +10
FOX News 10/08 - 10/09 900 RV 46 39 Obama +7
Newsweek 10/08 - 10/09 1035 RV 52 41 Obama +11

Looks to me +3 and +4 are outliers now...

Have a nice day.



Obama 60
Boomshack 25



Yeah boom, I wonder who Ambassador Sam Fox is going to endorse. You know most of these guys are partisan hacks that get their jobs by doing political favors.


bill kapra:

New Polls not yet up on Pollster:

Hotline +8 49-41
Rassmussen +5 50-45




This whole thing is in McCain's hands. If he has the balls and the smarts, he has the ammunition to CRUSH Obama in the debate tonight.

From his BS "taxcut for 95% of Americans" (when 40% of Americans don't even pay taxes and it will be a welfare check, not a tax cut), to his "spread the wealth around" Marxist comment.

McCain can own Obama tonight. We'll see if he has what it takes.



@boomshak, you said "100 U.S. Ambassadors Endorse McCain-Palin"

Did you check out Ms. Annenberg on that list :-)



Let's hope McShame has some balls (bad image right now) to tell the truth for once tonight. Obama is NOT going to raise taxes on Middle Class Americans. Trickle down hasn't worked, but instead has sunk our country into a deep recession. The only trickling down has been the richest 5% pissing on the rest of us.




boomcrack just get your rearend back to work and make more money , so you can help the needy come tax season.
I think I will work a bit less now since good ol boomcrack will be paying some of my future bills!



Boomshak needs banned asap.Im tired of seeing him on here.



boomcrack is as eractic as mcsame, just follow his posting pattern throughout the day.



100 U.S. Ambassadors Endorse McCain-Palin

My goodness. That changes everything.




I think the one thing that surprised me about the debate tonight was seeing McCain come out on stage wearing boxing shorts. Obama looked stunned when McCain said, "Screw the debate", let's get ready to rumble."

I think McCain misunderstood his advisers in preparing for this event.

Palin shouting: "Hit the little sh*t." from the wings was also less than helpful.

I think McCain has got his message to his base and, apparently, that message is that violence is a legitimate form of expression. He has won the hearts of the Republican faithful tonight.



cindy mcsame is not like among the military vets!

by Diane Tucker

At a rally in Bethlehem, Pa. last week, Cindy McCain spoke about having two sons serving on active duty: "I'm proud of my sons, but let me tell you, the day that Senator Obama cast a vote not to fund my son when he was serving sent a cold chill through my body. I would suggest that Senator Obama change shoes with me for just one day, and see what it means."

Never mind how many drinks are needed to erase the mental image of Barack Obama wearing Cindy McCain's stiletto heels. The fact is -- many military spouses support Obama-Biden, and they were deeply offended by Mrs. McCain's outburst.

Let's fact-check her remark, shall we?

Cindy McCain was referring to a single 2007 Senate vote: Obama voted for a war-spending bill that included language calling for withdrawing troops from Iraq; but later he voted against a version of the same bill because it no longer included the withdrawal language. "We must fund our troops, but we owe them something more," Obama said at the time. "We owe them a clear, prudent plan to relieve them of the burden of policing someone else's civil war."

In other words, Sen. Obama wanted to fund the troops, he just didn't support the flawed military strategy this particular bill would enable. (Previously, Obama had voted YES on at least 10 other war funding bills.)

"It ruffles our feathers when someone claims that Barack Obama doesn't support the troops, because the Obamas have gone out of their way to understand the military, its families, and its veterans," Stephanie Himel-Nelson, deputy director of outreach for Blue Star Families for Obama, told OffTheBus. "In fact, Michelle Obama has adopted military families as one of her causes."

Would Cindy McCain "Change Shoes" With These Military Wives?

"When millionaires such as Cindy McCain act as if they understand our lives, and the lives of everyday military families and veterans, we get upset," said Himel-Nelson.

Today the number of service men and women forced to deploy over and over again is unprecedented. Loneliness is leading to frayed marriages. Toddlers are just getting to know their parents when -- poof! -- mommy and daddy disappear to serve overseas again. Career paths are falling off track. Household budgets are in disarray.

Imagine what parenting must be like when one spouse keeps bouncing in and out of the picture. "It's a delicate dance," Heidi Goeman, Beaufort, SC told OffTheBus. "Kids change, rules change, and perspectives change while my husband is away. When he returns home, the lay of the land isn't the same." Goeman and her husband have endured four deployments together.

Many children are too young to articulate their response to repeated separations. "Our seven-year-old thought he was at fault for his dad's going away, despite our best efforts to prepare him," said Goeman.

Deployments Are Lasting Longer, Coming Closer Together

Casey Spurr's husband has been deployed three times. "Mostly I find myself saying 'I wish your daddy was here' when I really, really need to take a break, or when our son lets out a big belly laugh -- he has the best laugh," said the Virginia Beach, Va. resident. Spurr told OffTheBus, "Obama proposes a Military Family Advisory Board, which I think is long overdue."

The number of Navy and Air Force vets re-deployed to fill gaps in Army units on a one-off basis -- with just a few weeks of combat training -- continues to grow. "The Navy is providing manpower because the Army doesn't have enough troop strength for our front lines," said Vivian Walker, a Navy veteran and military spouse who is using her GI Bill benefits to earn a Ph.D. in public administration and urban policy.

Walker confesses she forgot her wedding anniversary amid the chaos of managing work and family by herself. "A big paper was due, I was trying to find a Halloween costume for our four-year old, my mother was visiting...the list goes on, but I'm not complaining. The only time I get upset is when I feel I have to defend my patriotism if I vote for Obama. I live this war daily. My support for the troops is all-consuming."

Maria Arwitz's husband is a Navy dentist who was onboard the USS Comstock when it delivered a marine corps unit to Afghanistan in 2002. Three years later he was sent to Iceland for 11 months, something that "probably would not have happened if Navy Medicine wasn't stretched so thin," Arwitz told OffTheBus. "He deployed right after one of our 10-month-old twins underwent heart surgery. It taught me a lot about how strong a military mom has to be with no family around."

Arwitz likes that Obama believes all Americans are entitled to quality health care. "The conditions at Walter Reed Hospital really infuriate me. I feel connected to these troops when they return home -- I shop with their wives at the commissary, my kids play with their kids on the playground. You wouldn't believe what some families are going through," said the Beaufort, SC resident.

The Rub: A Lack Of Honesty From The Bush Administration

Obviously there is a need for some level of military secrecy. But to what degree should families allow themselves to be kept in the dark?

"We want to know that the sacrifices we make are for a reason. That when our family members are in harm's way, they are protected as much as possible. That the leaders who deploy them will bring them home as soon as possible," said Bella Harris, Chesapeake, Va. She is married to a nuclear power officer on board the USS George Washington, an aircraft carrier based in Japan. Harris told OffTheBus she admires McCain, but is voting for Obama because "he has a better plan for health care reform, and a more experienced running mate."

Kathy Roth-Douquet, Beaufort, S.C. has lived in six places on three continents since she married a marine corps officer 11 years ago. "Our fourth-grader has attended six schools because of all the moves, but it's a source of pride that we were asked to do something difficult and found the resources to do it," she told OffTheBus. Roth-Douquet is the author of AWOL, a book about the unexcused absence of America's upper classes from military service and how it hurts the country. Recently she co-produced a video featuring military wives for Obama, after co-founding (with Laura Dempsey) a grassroots organization of military families called Blue Star Families for Obama.

All of these women respect McCain for his Vietnam-era service, but they believe Obama has the temperament to safely lead the United States out of the quagmire in the Middle East. "One doesn't have to join the military to serve their country -- nor does serving in the military necessarily qualify one to be president," said Walker. They trust Obama to use diplomacy, not just military might.

For The Record, Mrs. McCain...

The non-partisan group Disabled American Veterans gives John McCain a 20 percent rating for his voting record on veterans' issues. (It gives Barack Obama an 80 percent rating.)

The non-partisan group Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America gives McCain a "D" grade for his voting record on issues such as additional funding for combat body armor, and additional funding for post-traumatic stress disorder and other medical treatment. (Obama earned a B +.)



These Daily Kos polls are amazing, they're all over the place. One day 11 the next day 11... once it was at 10. I can't wait to see tomorrow's.



@boomshak: "100 U.S. Ambassadors Endorse McCain-Palin"

@sunnymi: "Did you check out Ms. Annenberg on that list :-)"

Omigosh! You mean Ms. Annenberg, Ayers' associate? She's supporting McCain? That'd disqualify him from running in any decent society!



Daily Kos has stabilized, Rasmussen has stabilized, Gallup is fairly stable (today a little less undecideds than usual giving a few point bump to McCain). The debate will not change things much because Obama will be so careful.


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