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US: Obama 52, McCain 41 (Daily Kos 10/13-15)

Topics: PHome

Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/13-15, 08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 52, McCain 41

 

Comments
boomshak:

AOL Debate Poll:

Who do you think won the debate?
John McCain 47%
Barack Obama 47%
Neither 6%

Total Votes: 448,535


____________________

MNlatteliberal:

First?
Wow, just wait till the post-debate dust settles in a couple of days. Obama by 14 in DailyKos by next Monday?

____________________

boomshak:

@MNlatteliberal:

First?
Wow, just wait till the post-debate dust settles in a couple of days. Obama by 14 in DailyKos by next Monday?

Who the hell cares what the DailyKos Poll is?

____________________

DTM:

The juxtaposition of the first and third posts in this thread is really quite funny.

____________________

slegend:

Today's polls will have the full media impact of the right wing media plants spending 4 hours each day on all the networks talking about Ayers. I am glad that the American people no longer trust getting news from right wing hacks like Hannity, O'Reilly, Dobbs, King, the converted Matthews, Morning Joe, etc.

And right wing hacks need to tell McCain to stop the makeup! It is pathetic to watch a grown man sit on stage with pink lipstick and 3 pounds of foundation on a face.

____________________

m913:

McCain will have to win over almost a point a day in the national polls to catch up.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

I do, boom. I do. I am a poll collector. That is why I am on pollster, to collect polls. Why are you on pollster?

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zotz:

boom-
Look at this picture of McCain and tell me this is the man you are voting for.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/

____________________

decided:

@boom and Latte:

Hey Latte, only the polls where Obama does not lead are valid, all others are BS.
Did you not know that???
you should know by now, thanks to our poll expert boomshak.

____________________

thoughtful:

Although I hate Kos, the R2K/Kos polling model is very good indeed, very high marks for consistency which underlines how steady and stable polling has been.

____________________

boomshak:

@thoughtful:

Although I hate Kos, the R2K/Kos polling model is very good indeed, very high marks for consistency which underlines how steady and stable polling has been.

26% Republicans? Not even in your most vivid wet liberal dream my friend.

____________________

MNlatteliberal:

@decided and slegend:
I know, I know, but I can't help it. I have a thing for boomshack almost as much as for those soft moist kissable lips of McCain.

boom, you never answered me last night: we do we stand on McCampaign now? Are we in the tank for the dude again or are we abandoning ship once more? i need my daily bearing. TIA

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thoughtful:

Boomshak

The important internal on this poll is Independents 51-41 in Obama's favour.

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Mike A.:

the abc debate is any idiot, no comment ;), who can click a mouse. not scientific. :)

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BOOMFAIL:

AOL online poll is linked from Drudge, so that should tell you something.

All actual polls show that Obama won yet again. Obama Biden going 4-0 this year is pretty remarkable. If you believe that McCain "won" last night, that is your opinion. The only win that matters will be on November 4th, and last night didn't change anything. Well, except make Joe Six Pack the Plummer richer than he already was!

____________________

Mike A.:

the abc poll is just an online poll. any idiot, no comment ;), who can click a mouse can vote. they don't poll over 400,000 not scientific. :)

____________________

DTM:

As I have noted before, 26% Republican in a poll which doesn't push leaners is in line with what broad surveys of partisan ID were showing early in 2008.

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BOOMFAIL:

boombatty's page long posts put me to sleep, but since he thinks DailyKos is irrelevant, I picked this for him.

Cheers and Jeers: Thursday
by Bill in Portland Maine
Thu Oct 16, 2008 at 05:55:44 AM PDT

From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE...

They said

They said his name's too foreign and exotic. It isn't.
They said he's too young. He isn't.
They said he's a scary Muslim terrorist. He isn't.
They said he was sworn in on the Koran. He wasn't.
They said he's not a Christian. He is.
They said he's too distant and aloof. He isn’t.
They said his birth certificate's fake. It isn’t.
They said he's nothing but a shallow celebrity. He isn't.
They said his "present" votes in the Illinois Senate prove he was a waffler. They don't.
They said he didn't sponsor any meaningful legislation in the U.S. Senate. He did.
They said his wife's a liability to the campaign. She isn't.
They said Reverend Wright would destroy his campaign. He didn’t.
They said Tony Rezko would destroy his campaign. He didn't.
They said PUMA would destroy his campaign. It didn't.
They said not wearing a flag pin 24/7 would destroy his campaign. It didn’t.
They said he couldn’t "close the deal" and win the Democratic nomination. He did.
They said that if he won the nomination the Democratic convention would be a repeat of the violent 1968 convention. It wasn't.
They said he'd never get angry Clinton voters to enthusiastically support him. He did.
They said his overseas trip would prove he was inexperienced and un-presidential. It didn't.
They said he'd never sink that 3-pointer. He did.
They said he should write off "red" states like Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota and North Carolina because they'd swung irretrievably for McCain. They hadn't.
They said he couldn't win over rural white voters. He did.
They said he was losing Latino and Jewish voters. He wasn't.
They said he didn’t have specific plans for the economy, health care, Iraq and terrorism. He does.
They said funding his campaign through mostly small-dollar donors was a mistake. It wasn't.
They said his GOP opponent would run an honorable campaign. He didn't.
They said he wasn't being truthful about his past. He was.
They said the nomination of Sarah Palin would knock his campaign off its stride. It didn't.
They said he wouldn't win the first debate because it was on foreign policy. He did.
They said he wouldn't win the second debate because it was a town hall format. He did.
They said he wouldn't win the third debate because McCain was going on the attack. He did.
They said he conspired with ACORN to commit massive voter fraud. He didn't.
They said his economic plan will raise taxes on the poor and middle class. It won't.
They said he doesn't understand the concerns of average Americans. He does.
They said all the negative campaign ads being thrown at him would work. They didn’t.
They said he didn’t have the guts to fight back against the smears. He did.
They said the election results would be tight as a tick.

To be continued...

____________________

mysticlaker:

Here boom,

Read a real analysis of the race.

http://www.democracycorps.com/focus/2008/10/third-presidential-debate/

McCain lost and lost big. Giving red meat to the base was not going to win this. He fell into Obama's trap. He needed to appeal to middle of the road voters to try and change the dynamic and failed. Sorry boom.

PS. Joe the plumber, not registered to vote...

____________________

GrampsMcCain:

Rasmussen poll:
Question who would you rather send your daughter on a date with?
A. Boombatty
B. Jason Voorhies
C. Michael Myers

Results:
Michael Myers 37%
Jason Voorhies 30%
Boombatty 20%

____________________

mysticlaker:

Gramps, predictions on RAS?

I'll go 51-44 again....

____________________

Dittoz:

lmao. Boomshak quoting an AOL online poll. Umm Boom. I used AOL in the mid 90's. Then I grew out of my technological infant shoes. The only people still using AOL are those afraid of that "new fandangled scary broadband". (i.e. Republicans) Are they going to take an analog television poll next? Or a poll via VHS tape? lol AOL....

____________________

mysticlaker:

RAS official

50-46

____________________

drinkwine247:

@ MnLatte

Hey stop talking trash you liberal pond scum terrorist sypathizer.

(my attempt at being boomsmak)

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orange24:

@boom:
To be fair, that was the best your guy has looked in all 3 debates. He was aided greatly by the fact that Obama played it like a guy that was up 10 points. He was much too passive and let way too many pitches go by - particularly in the first 1/2 hour. But, he did clean McCain up on Ayers, Health Care, and Roe v Wade. You can claim victory on those issues if you like, but focus groups would beg to differ - Obama cleaned his clock on those issues.

Overall, from a political standpoint, I think your guy finally won a debate. However, for every poll you list showing that he won, there are five that show Obama won. Why? Most say because he looked calm and presidential. McCain looked desperate and cranky. CNN, CBS, and even Fixed News all polled undecided or independent voters afterwards and Obama was declared the winner in all of those by a 2 to 1 margin. So, in short, this played great to his base, but he doesn't need to win the base. He needs to win the undecideds and he didn't. It was Nixon-Kennedy all over again. Obama (Kennedy) was cool and prediential, McCain (Nixon) was desperate and cranky.

____________________

OGLiberal:

I think Ras will start swinging back in Obama's direction in the next few days. That just was not a good debate for McCain.

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orange24:

This can't be good for McCain:

From TIME's Amy Sullivan:

In politics it is generally not considered a good sign when voters are laughing at you, not with you. And by the end of the third and last presidential debate, the undecided voters who had gathered in Denver for Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg’s focus group were “audibly snickering” at John McCain’s grimaces, eye-bulging, and repeated references to “Joe the Plumber.”

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jonny87:

ras obama 50, mac 46(+1)

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boomshak:

RASMUSSEN: OBAMA'S LEAD SHRINKS TO 4!

Thursday, October 16, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. It’s the first time since September 25 that McCain’s support has reached 46%, but Obama has now enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-one straight days (see trends).

____________________

Boomshak

Obviously you are unable to be honest or objective about anything. For those of you not familiar with AOL's "polling", here is their disclaimer: NOTE: Poll results are not scientific and reflect the opinions of only those users who chose to participate. Poll results are not reflected in real time. In other words, only AOL users who decied to click on the poll are recorded. No phone calls. No contact. Just whatever people decide to "vote". Plus they tend to be illiterate, uneducated conservatives who blog and vote. But BoomyBabe, you go ahead and pin your hopes on that one unscientific poll since I'm sure that you made sure that all your redneck buddies voted in it.

Boomshak Baby once again you FAIL!!!!

____________________

boomshak:

As usual, Obama fades into the close. Considering the conservative tide always rises the final week, we may have a dead tie right before 11/4.

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muckinello:

WHOO HOO.. BOOM PARTY TIME:

Ah.. since we are in "cut'n'paste" mode:

A commentary by Larry Sabato notes that “John McCain's position in the Electoral College continued to deteriorate in the previous seven days.” Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama is given a 84.6% chance of winning in November (see market expectations for key states).

From the same Ras reports!

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cambridge blue:

Another tough day for Boom.

One poll goes his way (Ras, though before the debate), another goes against his (Zogby - Obama's edge grew to 5.5 points over McCain today, up from a 3.8 point advantage in yesterday's report).

____________________

mysticlaker:

Boom, I'll keep on saying at least....The race will tighten. I expect Obama to go in with a 5% lead on Nov 4th...That is plenty for a big electoral win.

Can you please explain how McCain get's to 270? What would you do if you were him? That's what I'm interested now. Give me a path for him...

____________________

orange24:

Palin in Maine today, McCain in PA. That's it, keep wasting time and money in states you have no chance of winning.

____________________

boomshak:

@zigmeister:

But CNN and CBS who refuse to release the party weightings of their polls ARE "scientific"?

After the first debate, CNN gave Dems a 14 point sampling advantage. Ever since that embarassment, instead of fixing their sample, they just stopped announcing it.

____________________

huetdebd:

@boomshak

"who the hell cares what the dailykos poll is?"

then why are you commenting on the dailykos numbers?

____________________

This is a great commentary from John McCain's home state of Arizona. Long but definitely worth the read. Also contains a scary youtube video that you will want to see if you haven't already.

http://www.azcentral.com/members/Blog/filmex/35531

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jonny87:

lets get real...rasmussens the poll that everyone looks for. this things far from done and im not sure if obama will enjoy much of a bounce after the debate. he should of done much better!

____________________

OGLiberal:

Hotline today is at 49-41, same as yesterday. However, the underlying numbers are VERY good for Obama, especially considering that their party weightings - 41D/37R - are even tighter than Rasmussen's:

"- Obama now holds a commanding advantage in battleground states. The Dem nominee leads 55-33% among LVs in CO, FL, MI, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA and WI. A week ago, in the survey completed 10/8, he led these voters 50-42%.

- For the second consecutive day, the candidates are tied among white women. One week ago, McCain led white women by 6%.

- Obama meanwhile leads white moderates by 25% and white Indies by 11%. He also draws 21% of all conservatives, while McCain carries just 9% of liberals.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/13-15 by FD, surveyed 817 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 37%R, 18%I."

What say you about this one, Mr. Boomshak?

____________________

boomshak:

@orange24:

Palin in Maine today, McCain in PA. That's it, keep wasting time and money in states you have no chance of winning.

I agree with you on this. I have NO F*CKING CLUE why McCain insists on wasting time and resources on states he cannot possibly win.

As far as I can tell, he still is not advertising at all in NC, VA and FL. I have NO IDEA what the hell hs campaign is thinking.

____________________

fed:

Obama numbers have been solid at 50% or more in RAS. It is McCain who has increases and decreased his numbers in the last days. That means that his support is soft and more likely to decrease too

____________________

orange24:

@boomshak:
But CNN and CBS who refuse to release the party weightings of their polls ARE "scientific"?

So, what was the Fixed news weightings? Their focus group was made up of mostly republicans (big surprise). However, it blew up in their face. He asked beforehand who was for Obama when they entered the room. Nobody raised their hand. He asked who won the debate, almost everyone in the room raised their hand. This is a focus group of Florida republicans.

____________________

muckinello:

There is pressure to show the race closer than it is and it's not all bad for Obama. WIth RAS at only +4 I will surely be more motivated to turn out the vote than if they were showing Obama at +8.
I think at the end it will stabilize around +5 for Obama and a healthy EV advantage.
Off to see Michelle here in Pittsburgh now!

____________________

jonny87:

ras yesterday found definite support to be close...42 obama, 40 mac.....down from obama 45, mac 38 5 days or so ago.

____________________

DecaturMark:

The daily national tracking polls are a barometer for the way the election is heading. The polls are not conclusive. They are showing varying results, but the underlying trend is very little movement. And with the state polls lagging about a week behind the national polls tells us that time is quickly running out for McCain. There are less than 3 weeks left before election day. McCain needs significant movement in the national polls by the end of next week. Also, early voting has been strong, so the longer Obama maintains his lead in the next few weeks, the harder it will be for McCain to pick up the support he needs from an ever dwindling electorate.

____________________

sunnymi:


@boomshak:
But CNN and CBS who refuse to release the party weightings of their polls ARE "scientific"?

CNN used 40%D; 30%R; 30%I
Obama got almost 20% of the R vote and got about the same margin 57-31 among Indies as he got overall.

Check this one on Mediacurves where I's voted 2:1 in Obama's favor.
http://mediacurves.com/

____________________

d3nnisbest:

Boomshak:

"RASMUSSEN: OBAMA'S LEAD SHRINKS TO 4!"

I used to think you were just another stupid troll. Now, I think you are probably mentally retarded. I'm voting for Obama because you need your benefits.

Please take the rasmussen poll and combine with your AOL poll give us a prediction. We need something to talk about since the drama's been sucked out of this election.

____________________

GrampsMcCain:

I am not liking the trend I have seen in Rasmussen 50-46, ehh getting to close for my liking. Let's keep it 5 points plus. Who knows maybe boom is right and Ras will be "tied by Sunday" as he likes to say. I threw up a bit in my mouth when I saw that number this morning. McCain has started to trend up a bit in the past 2-3 days, now whether that is the the Ayers stuuf or what I don't know. But after the market took another huge dump yesterday, and McCain gained a point where as in the past he lost ground, makes me nervous. Not that McCain will win but that he edges to within 2-3 points nationally. Although overall there seems to be very little movement when you average them all out.

____________________

sunnymi:


The below statement from Hotline says it all.
It explains why Obama is ahead by bigger margins in state polling than the national trackers.


"- Obama now holds a commanding advantage in battleground states. The Dem nominee leads 55-33% among LVs in CO, FL, MI, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA and WI. A week ago, in the survey completed 10/8, he led these voters 50-42%.

____________________

These are the cross-tabs for the CNN poll. Weight them however you like; it's not close. Obama did better among partisans and won by 26 points among independents.

Who did the best job in the debate?

Independents

McCain (R) 31
Obama (D) 57

Republicans

McCain (R) 68
Obama (D) 18

Democrats

McCain (R) 5
Obama (D) 88

____________________

boomshak:

AN AMUSING THOUGHT:

I was just sitting here imagining the reaction from the moonbat left and MSM if McCain can somehow pull this off (very doable if you believe Rasmussen).

I mean, they will lose their minds. It will be amusing to say the least.

I'm sure they will be calling states for Obama with 1/10th of 1% in and Obama ahead by 2 votes.

Remember 2004 when they called FL for Kerry based upon exit polling? Lol, that was memorable.

____________________

OGLiberal:

Re: the weightings. The goal of these focus groups and insta-polls is to put together a bunch of undecideds. Because of this, the party ID may not break down as equitably as some would like. There are fewer independents than Dems or Republicans so you would expect their numbers to be lower. As for the 10pt gap between the parties in this CNN poll, I don't see it as problematic. I'd bet that there are more undecided Dems - still angry Hillary supporters, Reagan Dems, etc. - than there are Republicans. Perhaps the 40/30/30 split is representative of the voters our there who are still undecided?

____________________

Whoa! Boomshak is fantasizing out loud! Kind of sad and pathetic! You need to get out of your cell more often Dude!

____________________

boomshak:

I HAVE JUST DECIDED THAT THE HOTLINE POLL IS UTTER BS. CHECK THIS LINE:

"Obama now holds a commanding advantage in battleground states. The Dem nominee leads 55-33% among LVs in CO, FL, MI, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA and WI. A week ago, in the survey completed 10/8, he led these voters 50-42%.

So they are trying to tell us that Obama is ahead by 23 FRIGGIN POINTS in the battleground states, but only 8% nationally (while Rasmussen has it at 4%).

Seriously, what ARE they smoking?

____________________

orange24:

I mean, they will lose their minds. It will be amusing to say the least.

Yeah, real funny. I'd have to start checking the real estate values in Canada. McCranky is going to have us in another Cold War with Russia, bombing Iran, and stuck in Iraq until the 23rd century.

____________________

jonny87:

as much as i like to say theres not been much movement a little more than a week ago obama was 8 clear and 7 clear just this past saturday.

____________________

tjacobits:

@ anyone who wishes to push the "Obama should be running away with it but he's not so he won't win" reasoning:

From Rasmussen:

During the month of August, 34% of American adults said they approved of the way that George W. Bush performed his job as president. That’s up a point from a month ago and up two points from the all-time low reached in June.

Still, it’s the fifth straight month that Bush’s approval has been at or below the 34% level. Prior to that stretch, it had never been below 35%.

Sixty-three percent (63%) now disapprove, down two points from a month ago.

The August figures include 15% who Strongly Approve and 45% who Strongly Disapprove.

The president earns approval from 37% of men and 31% of women. He also gets positive reviews from 70% of Republicans, 11% of Democrats, and 32% of those not affiliated with either major party.

I would say that the Bush approval rating is a solid guide for McCain's base vote, let's say 35%. This number alone makes it impossible for Obama to ever poll over 65%. But the poll states that 30% of Republicans disapprove of Bush. I would guess that these people will still vote for McCain. So...the McCain base vote is most likely 40%. Now Obama can never poll over 60%. Of course some independents will vote for McCain, putting his support somewhere between 41-45%. Now Obama ceiling is 55-59%. Of course some voters will not decide until the last moment or vote for a third candidate, so Obama will never get 100% of the remainder. Now this give Obama a 49-55% piece of the vote. HMMM....? Anyone care to try and break this down differently in order to somehow show that Obama could ever realistically poll 20(!) points ahead of McCain? It seems like this would only happen if a large chunk of dedicated, partisan Republicans voted for Obama or if 100% of independents and undecideds break for Obama. Neither of these things is going to happen.

Conclusion?= If you try to argue that Obama should be even further ahead in the polls, you are wrong.

____________________

jonny87:

as much as id like to say the race is fairly stable obama was 8 clear just over a week ago, and 7 clear on saturday. now just 4 with nearly 3 weeks to go. 3 weeks is a long time!

____________________

carl29:

I'm a fair "ducky," so let me see how things stand:

TODAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Hotline, Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground, Obama 50 McCain 44

Average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.7

YESTERDAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 48.2 McCain 44.4
Hotline, Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground, Obama 51 McCain 43

Average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.3

*We need to add Gallup when it comes out :-)

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "Remember 2004 when they called FL for Kerry based upon exit polling?"

This shows your ignorance....it was not in 2004 but 2000 when they called FL for Gore.
In 2004 FL was always in Bush column.

____________________

carl29:

TODAY:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Hotline, Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground, Obama 50 McCain 44

Average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.7

LAST WEEK, Thursday 10/9

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 47.8 McCain 44.2
Hotline, Obama 47 McCain 41
Battleground, Obama 48 McCain 45

Average: Obama 48.2 McCain 43.8

*This is how things have moved from one Thursday to the other. We will add Gallup when it comes out :-)

____________________

sunnymi:


This is why Obama is ahead and McCain is behind -

It's About You
First Read: "Obama has gotten much better about referring to voters more than himself while McCain refers to himself more than the voters. Check out the closing statements. Here's McCain's: 'I have a record of reform, and taking on my party, the other party, the special interests...' And Obama's: 'You know, over the last 20 months, you've invited me into your homes. You've shared your stories with me. And you've confirmed once again the fundamental decency and generosity of the American people. And that's why I'm sure that our brighter days are still ahead.'"

____________________

Vokoban:

You could be worried if Obama's numbers were decreasing. But they aren't they are at 50% or above in the average.

Try to beat that in an election.

____________________

sunnymi:


What a response from the Obama team about the "I am not Bush!" retort from McCain in last night's debate....Gotta love them :-)

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/90-percent_ad

____________________

sunnymi:


@boomshak, you said "So they are trying to tell us that Obama is ahead by 23 FRIGGIN POINTS in the battleground states, but only 8% nationally (while Rasmussen has it at 4%).
Seriously, what ARE they smoking?"

This is a poll with only a D+4 ID advantage....they have said it a few times over the last couple of weeks....ARG said the same. Others might be seeing similar results but are not putting their information out.

If you are premium member of Rasmussen ask them for this info :-

____________________

carl29:

Today, 10/16:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 46
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Hotline, Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground, Obama 50 McCain 44

Average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.7


Monday, 10/13:

Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 47.9 McCain 43.6
Hotline, Obama 48 McCain 42
Battleground, Obama 51 McCain 43

Average: Obama 49.2 McCain 43.4

*We are going to update the numbers when Gallup comes out :-)

=========================================

See the trend:

DAY-TO-DAY:

Today average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.7
Yesterday average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.3

THREE-DAY:

Today average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.7
Monday average: Obama 49.2 McCain 43.4

WEEKLY:

Thursday 10/15 average: Obama 49.5 McCain 43.7
Thursday 10/9 average: Obama 48.2 McCain 43.8

*We will update when Gallup comes out :-)

____________________



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