Daily Kos (D)/Research 2000
10/14-16, 08; 1,100 LV 3%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 52, McCain 42
down another point.
let's see what happens after the weekend when the debate results kick in. 14 pt spread by Tue!
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:56 AM
Diageo/Hotline for today...
Obama - 50
Looks like you dreams are going to be fulfilled today...
Steady results here. Remember to disregard this poll when you cherry pick today. (sarcasm)
Colin Powell with the October Surprise Sunday morning!!!
Change is coming in 2 1/2 weeks!
oh, and FIRST! lol
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:57 AM
Last night's sample was only +6. Another data point suggesting that the race is narrowing (along with Ras and Gallup).
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:58 AM
Just like Zogby Obama's percentage among his party is the same as McCain and he is leading by 7 percent with independents so my question is how did his support drop in this poll?
Posted on October 17, 2008 8:59 AM
Ras has Obama LEADING in MO 52-46.
That should scare McCain supporters more than the tightening of the national polls makes them feel good...
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:00 AM
Can I just say that Ginny Most RULZ!
Better facial analysis of the debate mugs than anyone else on the news. Very cute.
Powell set to endorse Obama this weekend and Dow about to plunge today. Expect a slight weekend bounce for Obama on Monday/Tuesday.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:02 AM
dubya talking economy on national tv.
look for the markets to tank today.
good day to buy stocks today.
another great day for Obama tomorrow.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:05 AM
RAS 50-46 today, no change.
one flare up in the midd east and obama the coward sinks.
though, i hardly think that will happen as the mid east wants this guy who cant nevah make up his mind and prefers to demure, albeit with resonating deep tonality.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:07 AM
Boskop. I really missed that foul apple...
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:10 AM
It would be just terrible to have a thinking president. I prefer mine to hold rock steady, believing the same thing on Wednesday that they did on Monday, regardless of what happens on Tuesday.
boskop, what about two flare ups?
ps: how many do we have there now, btw? does iraq count? what about afghanistan? oh, wait, i forgot, afghanistan is not in the middle east and there are no flare ups there. lmao.
if ever there were a coward, colin powell is that. alk about a guy who couldnt read a photo and showed us a bunch a dump trucks that even i didnt buy lo those many years gone by.
powell blew it and has totally lost credibility. obama can have him. but remember , this guy's testimony started the war.
maybe he's rampping up for more of the same in the obama admin, to condone sashaying into afgahnistan and pakistan. i wonder....
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:11 AM
Not posted yet--where did you hear that?
Collin Powell is Coming on board - watch out mccain -- LOL
HOTLINE CONTINUES TO MYSTIFY:
Every other poll shows Obama's lead shrinking considerably. Hotline shows it is exploding.
Keep in mind that this is the same Hotline Poll that says Obama is +23 (ludicrous) in battleground states.
This has been the strangest of all tracking polls this season, regularly making 5 and 6 point single day moves in opposite directions. With a tracking poll, a move that size is almost impossible and would require an almost 12 point shift in single day polling.
douglas, subscribers get access at 9 AM...I am not a subsciber, but on another site there is one, and he posts the numbers as they come in. It's reliable.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:12 AM
do you have exclusive information sources (ras)? normally Rasmussen releases at 9:30, or are you just predicting?
Is it all possible that Powell is actually going to endorse McCain, and that all the various leaks over the last few months were an intentional Rovian trick to make it all that more dramatic and unexpected when he does, rather than just coming across as a Republican endorsing another Republican, which is dog bites man material, and thus not really news?
I mean, lets look at where the first "leak" (I believe) came from, it was William Kristol. Being a Democratic-leaning voter, I tend to irrationally expect the worst.
Yeah: shame on Powell that he believed the lies his commander in chief told him.
What a bastard, trusting a repub!
first I post here but I follow you from the UK. Yeahh another foreign liberal for Obama!
I'm really interested in the technical aspects of the American Polls but I still don't know how much credit I have to give them, I think, at this point what matters is ground work in those states that might swing. boomshak, I'm your biggest fan! You could write a book on trolling, you really do it very well. However, I take your thought about race tightneing and probably we will see the gap narrowing in the next days. Is it a problem?
I think the problem here is really to work in the battlefields. In a fair partecipated race i think the gap would not be larger than 3-4%. This just because the base of the parties, despite of what MSM will say, will remain tight and loyal to the candidate. Personally (but I can see it only by looking at US MSM, so I really don't know about the feeling you guys have when you go around places) I think this is the case.
I know that polls are a thrill and addictive (for me too!!) but I really think that as the election approach we will see them changing in McCain favor.
Sorry just my 2 c
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:13 AM
ANOTHER HOTLINE ODDITY:
Hotline claims that Obama is drawing 21% of the conservative vote. This is far more than what any other pollster is claiming.
Another strange thing. One day MCain leads amongst white women by 6%. The next day it is tied.
I mean you just DO NOT SEE that kind of seismic shifts in the internals of these polls from day-to-day.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:15 AM
glad to see you thinking beyond your navels as usual.
if you play chess as well as you extrapolate the present you could certainly take on Deep Blue.
lord are we in good hands with brains like yours.
Does anyone actually give a damn what Colin Powell thinks about anything? The man was always a liberal dove.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:16 AM
On the other hand, Powell did basically state that he viewed his presentation for the UN as a "blot" on his record, and given that McCain is arguably an even more belligerent neo-con than Bush, it is difficult to imagine...
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:17 AM
O has been at 50 -52 in most all polls for several weeks. JM has been at 42-44. Too many undecides. It is expected they will break 80-20 for Sydney. That is part of what is happening JM has no where to go but up. AT 52-42, on election day Sydney will get at least 47-48%. And....? That is still a 4% national popular vote lead or a 98% chance of an EV victory for BO. Likely around 390 EVs. Exactly as predicted 1 week after the first debate. If BO should slip below 50% - then, be concerned. Remember by all accounts Sydney needs to be in front in the National polls by 1.8 points a week before election to take this thing. Tightening from 52-41 to 52-42, or from 50-40 to 50-44; even 51-44, to 50-48 does not effect any of the bottom line state numbers. For now, just volunteer to make phone calls, go door to door and VOTE.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:18 AM
Have to agree that Obama +23 in a battleground states is just plain silly. He's doing that well in NON-battleground states like NY and CT, where McCain has no chance.
Where are you getting today's results? The Diageo website only has yesterdays, and I don't see it posted on RCP.
one flare up in the midd east and obama the coward sinks."
I don't know. Your man Colin Powell might disagree with you this Sunday.
subscribers get access at 9 AM...I am not a subsciber, but on another site there is one, and he posts the numbers as they come in. It's reliable.
There is no possible way Powell would endorse McCain after his pick of Palin as VP, plus the fact that McCain and the RNC have tryed to paint the first serious black candidate as a radical, and called him everything but the N word. If he does not go with Obama he would simply sit this one out as he has done in the past.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:19 AM
Could be wrong. Someone else on here posted them as O+10.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:21 AM
McCain also trusted the "evidence" for WMD. It takes a man to admit when he was wrong. At least Powell did that. McCain would have invaded Iraq even if he knew what we now know.
McCain is dangerous and mentally unstable. Is that why you like him? LOL!
I'm buying stocks on or around December 22. The end of the year rally should provide a bottom.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:22 AM
do you know the cross tabs that ras uses...age, race???
I seem to recall you claimed to be a Hillary supporter. How do you feel about Palin?
Not that I believe your persona but I'd love to know how a fictitious democrat who fought hard for Hillary could be anything but nauseated by the prospect of Palin as V.P.
So far the poll of the day IMO is Ras's MO showing Obama with a 6 point lead.
1st of all, as intelligent people know, Obama winning ONE of the major RED states gives him the Presidency. (From FL, MO, OH, VA, NC, CO, IN, etc.) McShame must win ALL OF THEM.
2nd, if this reliable RED state is showing a 6 point lead from Ras, how can his national poll show only a 4 point lead?? Doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
Regardless, the EV win will come from the battleground states, and not the national average (as we witnessed with Gore.) This is just one more sign of the battlegrounds improving for Obama. And with another major RED state (MO)widening for Obama, let the national polls give McCainiacs hope. It'll just make Nov. 5th that much more painful for them.
Maybe the RNC is painting Obama as a radical because we checked his references and all his friends are radicals?
maybe he's rampping up for more of the same in the obama admin, to condone sashaying into afgahnistan"
We're already in Afghanistan, moron.
I don't know, the VPILF see's Putin rearing his head in Alaska's air space. Maybe her and SYDNEY are getting ready to go to war with Russia. I'm sure that wouldn't be costly at all...
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:23 AM
Ras and Zogby stable again today. Not sure what happened with that single day of polling in this R2K tracker. The day before, it was Obama +10, 51-41. Yesterday's single day total was 50-44. Seems like Obama is pretty stable at about 50-52 in the national and many of the swing state polls. He's not losing support. What appears to be happening is that undecides - many of whom like Joe the Plumber were probably never going to vote for Obama anyway - are going to McCain. This is not shocking. He'll probably get them by a 3-to-1 margin. As long as Obama keeps his support and stays at 50-52, he'll win no problem. I never expected Obama to get more than 52 in the popular vote anyway. And the state polls are still looking very good for Obama - the MO poll released by Rasmussen actually show Obama increasing his lead there by 3pts.
Cool. Thanks for the advance word!
I would tell you @boom and @jck how you can get the updated d/h number, but I am invoking executive priveledge to keep it to myself. You betcha!
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:25 AM
Maybe the RNC is painting Obama as a radical because we checked his references and all his friends are radicals?"
I agree BOOM****. I'll never forget the countless times Obama met with terrorist G. Gordon Liddy, and how he hired a SADDAM LOBBYIST to head up his transition team.
Oh wait, it's SYDNEY who knows those guys. My bad.
Plotting to kill liberals is not radical in the GOP book. It's compassionate conservatism. So you really cannot blame McCain for this.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:27 AM
I think any Powell "endorsement" will be weak and half-hearted. I'm still not convinced he will burn every politcal bridge he's ever forged for this election. We'll see.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:29 AM
GW/BATTLEGROUND: OBAMA SHRINKS TO +4!
This poll really is remarkable. It has gone from Obaam +13 to Obama +4 in about 3 days. Wow!
I always thought the +13 was an aberation, but the movement to McCain is clear.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:30 AM
As for McCain "catching up." They have accomplished what they really wanted to. They have fired up the base. (Because hate and fear always fire up the far-right GOP base quite well). And so the base has now kicked in a few points. Problem is, as we see today, the crucial states are not swinging wildly McCain's way. In fact, you have some places like MO slipping further away. I still see zero evidence that the majority of this McCain "surge" is anything but really Red states or red "pockets" are consolidating for McCain. As for debate reaction, you won't really get a good feel for that until this weekend's polls. Sometimes it trickles in after a full day of polling, but it usually takes a good 2 or 3, especially in the trackers. And while debate reaction may not thrust Obama back to double digits, it's not gonna help McCain.. you can bet on that.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:31 AM
in light of the ras, kos and zogby numbers anyone still anticipate a poll bounce for obama???
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:32 AM
If Ras has MO polling above his national numbers, that should really worry McCain supporters.
Imagine this: Obama drops five points in the polls (+1 McCain lead) and still wins with Kerry +IA + MO. In addition, CO and VA are still in play under that scenario, so Obama has three realistic paths to victory.
McCain is going to have a VERY tough time making up ground this late in the game. He needs about a 6-7 point national swing, if you assume Rasmussen is accurate.
GW/BATTLEGROUND: OBAMA GETS DEBATE ANTI-BOUNCE!
3 Separate polls today, Zogby, DailyKos and GW/Battleground have shown significant one-day tightening the day AFTER the debates.
Maybe Obama didnd't "win" as the MSM seems to think?
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:33 AM
he Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. These figures reflect a remarkably stable race in which Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-two straight days.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:34 AM
If you assert the +13 was an aberration, how can you conclude that moving from there to +4 means anything at all?
Nice try though.
Just so I'm clear - Every poll that doens't have this a 2 or 3 point race (and there's a LOT of them) is s**t. Every poll that has this a 2 or 3 point race is the most accurate pollster of the last 100 years. Just want to make sure I'm clear on that.
And just for fun, I'll ask for the 899th time - please, somebody explain how McCain digs himself out of this electoral hole. It seems you McCain supporters are only interested in making the popular vote race 'look good'. Well, keep at. I guess Obama will have to settle for winning by 4 or 5 percent and getting around 320 electoral votes. If you don't agree, then please explain to me how McCain wins every battleground state and turns a blue state red.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:35 AM
lol, it was +8 on both sides of the +13. You don't consider a 4 point haircut in 2 days to be signficant?
Who Won the Debate? (10/16/08)
"Maybe Obama didnd't "win" as the MSM seems to think?"
It wasn't the MSM, it were the the polls they did afterwards. All of them had the same result: Obama won.
So you want to argue against polls with - more polls?
Man, that's really funny.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:36 AM
And right on cue, Obama takes his largest ever lead in the Hotline tracker.
And yet McCain is rallying in the polls the day after the debate?
So today Boomshak is in Love with DKos/R2K poll :LOL:
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:37 AM
What I would like to understand is where Obama¨s numbers are dropping. Battleground state polls show him ahead. Could it be that McCain is gaining in deep red states?
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:38 AM
Great news for McCain, the new GW Battleground has Obama falling 1% and McCain up 1%, total 2% swing in the swing states.
"Here comes Johnny"
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:39 AM
I am no expert on polling however Ras said Obama is even among men and plus 8 with women yet is only up 4 in total. Would this not mean he is under polling women?
McCain is not rallying. You don't understand normal fluctuations boom :)
btw Hotline with Dem 41% and Rep 36% Ind 18%. The spread among Dem's and Rep's is wider than that :) he is overestimating Rep and underestimating Inde's. Also overestimating Dems by 3 points but not as much as Reps
LOL. Yeah, I've noticed. Also, it's not voter fraud when Ken Blackwell kicks democrats off voter rolls, and Katherine Harris puts up barricades to suppress minority voters (these actions coming from the very same people who claim to have the market cornered on the word PATRIOT, yet they don't seem to think voting or democracy is very patriotic, especially when their party is about to get wiped out of office). Yet some dumbasses who ACORN reported themselves fills out Mickey Mouse on a registration form and the way the neocons react you would think that it was worse than what took place in Florida 2000 and Ohio 2004.
I've just come to the conclusion that some people like boom**** are assholes who have no understanding of the function of democracy, civics and government as a whole.
Hotline Tracker is moving 180 degrees opposite of the other tracking polls (including DailyKos which was just +6 today). They also claim Obama is +23 in BG states.
No, that poll has been wildly erratic all season.
Keep your eye on Rasmussen/Gallup and TIFF (most accurate in 2004). I expect Rasmussen/Gallup to remain close to each other until 11/4.
BW Tracker includes 3 night polling not just last night. We do not know if the tightening is because of last night's polling or the previous 2 nights before that. Let us wait till Sunday to confirm this.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:40 AM
Zogby and Ras are unchanged and Hotline is +2 Obama. Just exactly what 'surge' am I missing?
that is likely exactly what is happening.
If you had told me 2 months ago that, with just over 2 weeks to go to election day, Obama would have by most conservative estimates a 3 point lead nationally AND a tie or lead in EVERY major battleground state, I would have gladly taken it.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:41 AM
I don't know what Powell is going to say on MTP. But he is both a committed Republican and an honorable man.
The far right bloggers here are entitled to their opinions, but the fact remains his opinion will count with independents.
Expect a big ratings boost for MTP for this most eagerly awaited of interviews.
As the election day nears there is always some tightening in polls. No one here expected the leads over 8 points to sustain till Nov 4th.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:42 AM
Zogby is NOT unchanged. His one-day number yesterday was only O+3.6%. That's a 2 point move to McCain.
Hotline is just on drugs.
"Zogby and Ras are unchanged and Hotline is +2 Obama. Just exactly what 'surge' am I missing?"
DAILYKOS R2K TRACKER IS THE GREATEST POLL OF ALL TIME! +6 OBAMA IS A GREAT DAY FOR MCCAIN! WOO!
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:43 AM
'in light of the ras, kos and zogby numbers'...and now battleground.
noone takes hotline to seriously
Can you guys link me to Hotline? I don't see it online where it normally is.
what is TIFF? This is not a poll I have ever heard of.
In case anyone is interested, there is a new Knowledge Networks Knowledge Panel poll out. These may not be as fun as the daily trackers, but what they are doing is tracking on a monthly basis how a group of people is feeling about various issues, the candidates in general, the candidates with respect to specific attributes, the candidates on specific issues, and so on.
Anyway, see here:
And you can click through to a PDF for all the data.
By the way, as the roundup states, Obama has been improving in the eyes of the panel pretty much across the board, and McCain has been going down. I suspect that is a combination of Obama's solid debate performances, spending on positive ads, and generally steady behavior on the one hand, and McCain's weak debate performances, backfire from his now almost exclusively negative ad campaign, and erratic behavior on the other.
Oh, and Palin's numbers have crashed since September.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:44 AM
Am I the only one who has developed a morbid addiction to boom's daily contortions? This guy needs his own show.
The surge of air between the ears.
Apparently Ras's 6 point Obama lead in MO doesn't qualify as a surge, since the movement is towards Obama.
Cherry pickers will be the most disappointed Nov 5th!
@Keep VA Red:
what is TIFF? This is not a poll I have ever heard of.
IBD/TIFF - most accurate poll n 2004.
I don't know what post-debate commentary you watched/read but almost all of the MSM pundits thought McCain won the debate. The post-debate polls and focus groups, however, found that VOTERS thought Obama clearly won the debate. The pundits were kind of shocked that the lowly voters thought he won.
Rasmussen has a debate poll set to release today that shows voters believing Obama won the debate, 47-33. The party breakdowns are (Obama number first)
I know you always go on and on about the bias of the CNN and CBS snap polls. But was Frank Luntz's focus group biased? Is this Rasmussen poll biased?
Here's what's happening. Undecides are coming home to McCain. I say "coming home" because these people were never going to vote for Obama - they were going to stay home, vote for Barr (or write in somebody), or suck it up and vote for McCain. The McCain camp has played well to their base the past two weeks, pumping up the fear and hatred. McCain gave them some red meat at the last debate. Still not enough for their taste, I'm sure, but they probably said, "Well, this is as good as it's going to get - and ain't no way I'm voting for the commie terrorist America hating negro. And I can't stay home because it looks like Hussein might win this thing easy."
Obama still at 50 in Rasmussen. At 49 in Battleground and Zogby. Polled at 50 in the R2K single day numbers yesterday. He stays at 50, he wins, hands down. Obama isn't really losing support here, McCain is gaining. But if Obama has a solid 50%, McCain can't win.
FYI...confirmed the Hotline +10, with Obama at 50. It's here:
Their party ID has Dems at +5, which sounds about right.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:46 AM
"A Republican In Virginia"
If you want to know why Obama appears to be ahead in this once-solidly Republican state, this reader will clue you in:
They are killing me. I am a registered Republican. I live in Virginia. But I am clearly not a "Virginia Republican". This ticket and loathsome campaign is a disaster - I haven't left the Republican Party so much as it has left me, at least here in the Commonwealth. The party gladly allowed Rove/GWB to cultivate a certain brand of politics to win and hold the White House. And now that the bill has come due, so few wish to face the music. And in the process - and his quest for office - John McCain has embraced that which he professed to repudiate.
Ignorant Christian Fascism is not a recipe for success, it's Saudi Arabia under a different prophet. Count me out. Despite differing with the Democratic platform on a great number of policies, I will gladly vote for the Obama ticket because at a minimum it promises adults at the helm, a rational approach to policy making, the return of science over theocracy, the restoration of the primacy of the rule of law, and the creative destruction of that assemblage once known as the GOP.
The Rasmussen MO poll was made the day that Mccain gaind a point in their tracking poll.
Obama gained 3 ponts in 3 days, moving against the national trend
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:47 AM
IBD/TIFF - most accurate poll n 2004."
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:48 AM
So the trolls ignore the polls they don't like (even from the ones like Ras they're rubbing themselfes raw over that happen to show MO +6 Obama) and cling to outdated models showing a 2/3 point race. Shocking I tell you.. shocking.
Powell will probably throw a wrench by endorsing McCain. He's Republican first, and his loyalties will remain with the GOP.
MO: Obama 52(50)/ McCain 46(47)
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:49 AM
Actually, its kind of fun. You can almost see the hope and excitement growing in their minds. It will be much more fun for us to see their hearts break after their expectations were raised so much.
If states like MO are trending Obama, this election is over.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:51 AM
By the way, with the new Rasmussen, Zogby, and Battleground included, but not yet the new Hotline (and of course no R2K at all), this morning the RCP national average has O 49.4, M 42.8.
Looking back one week to 10/10, the RCP national average was O 49.4, M 42.8. Obviously a bit of a coincidence to have the exact same numbers, but perhaps a useful reminder of the broader perspective.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:52 AM
I think Obama won the debate, But the joe the plumber story must have given some boost to Maccain.
But, I think the poll will not tighten any more... it is already Oct 17th and all the debates are finished, Obama is still keeping 50 percent in most of the polls... Only undecideds are going to Maccain now... And since Obama is stronger in battle ground polls than nationally... if he can keep 50 percent nationally... he will win landslide in EV.
I expect 350+
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:54 AM
jeepdad, that's always a possibility. But I doubt every bit as much he'd swing the other way. I expect some half-assed muted support for Obama but nothing close to a whole-hearted "endorsement" on Sunday. It will pretty much be generic Meet The Press "Where I think the country should go" bla bla talking points, that more or less line up with Obama's platform, but will come short of a full-on endorsement. We'll see.
I am more than willing to say that Rasmussen is probably the most accurate (as they were in 2004. They push leaners and so I think there is probably 2 to 4 points of 'undecideds' who are McCain-leaning undecideds who may or may not show up to vote on 11/4. At this point, my prediction for the final result would be 53/46/1, and taking Ras' state polls into account, I think Obama is looking at something in between 300 and 340 electoral votes.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:55 AM
About IBD/TIPP: An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP, was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season. Learn more at www.TIPPonline.com.
In 2004, TIPP, a Division of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, came within 3/10 of 1% point of President Bush's actual margin of victory, thus winning the title of "Nation's Most Accurate Pollster."
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:56 AM
Sunnymi I'm assuming by your comments that you proclaim yourself smarter than god. Hope science takes good care of your soul.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:57 AM
Joe the Plumber is not an "undecided". He's a registered republican. Since according court records, he doesn't pay taxes anyways, I'm not sure what his problem with Obama is. In fact, whether Obama wins or McCain wins, will just affect the amount of the lawsuit against him by the state of Ohio.
By the way, with the new Rasmussen, Zogby, and Battleground included, but not yet the new Hotline (and of course no R2K at all), this morning the RCP national average has O 49.4, M 42.8.
Looking back one week to 10/10, the RCP national average was O 49.4, M 42.8. Obviously a bit of a coincidence to have the exact same numbers, but perhaps a useful reminder of the broader perspective."
What, you mean no TIED RAZE BAH SUNDEE?
I simply refuse to accept your logical and thoughtful perspective! As is the case with facts, logic and thoughtfulness have a well known liberal bias.
Posted on October 17, 2008 9:59 AM
IBD/TIPP (supposedly Boomshak's current favorite) has Obama improving margins in each of the 4 days it has released results.
What makes me skeptical of this poll is high number of undecideds at this point in the election!
IBD/TIPP came closest in predicting the actual margin of victory in 2004 but there were a few others within decimal points of it (like Pew, CBS). So it is not as if this was the only poll that got it right and the rest missed the boat completely.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:02 AM
Sunnymi I'm assuming by your comments that you proclaim yourself smarter than god. Hope science takes good care of your soul."
Boom****, is this Pat Robertson sound-a-like a drunk relative of yours?
(OMG, I'm making a purely technical, nonpartisan point/question...)
The Kos poll today has a 52-42 split for the 3-day ave. It added a day of 50-44 polling (10/16) and dropped a day of 51-41 polling (10/13).
This suggests that the individual-day polls--reported as "Yesterday's Results" each day--are unweighted, but that the three-day tracking results are weighted. This might account for some of the head-scratching and/or paranoia that pops up in our comments.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:04 AM
Democrats need to be scared of my wife ... and the millions like her. Why? She has always been a die hard Democrat and she is factored into all those statistical calculations that pollsters use to estimate voter turnout and expand their tiny samples to nationwide numbers as a loyal voting democart. She is 99% sure she's going to vote for McCain. Why? She still doesn't agree with the Republican party on abortion, but she is terrified of what an Obama presidency will do to the economy. We are a single income family and she is terrified that his policies will cost me my job. She is also pissed at Obama for being so disingenuous about being beyond race and divisiveness in his politics. Even her liberal heart can see him playing the race card.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:07 AM
@southern angler, you said "Sunnymi I'm assuming by your comments that you proclaim yourself smarter than god. Hope science takes good care of your soul."
We are at a website that is all about numbers and statistics. If we are not scientific here and religious in the church we do not deserve to be in those places.
I have nothing against TIPP, but you know as well as I do that until they push their undecides in the last week their numbers are at best not comparable with, say, Ras. And they currently have the tiniest daily samples.
You're smart; you know this stuff.
Spin less -- think more.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:15 AM
Keep VA Red:
"Democrats need to be scared of my wife"
Sold. I am now terrified of your wife.
Here is my current list of top 10 phobias:
10. that alankeysawesome dude is for real
9. that boomshack stops posting
8. bears (thanks, Colbert!)
7. that I wake up and see Russia out of my back window
4. fat terrorists
3. the economy, stupid
2. keep_Va_red's wife
1. that the current American nightmare is allowed to continue
So you see, Red, your wife's made it to the top 3!
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:26 AM
"Keep your eye on [various NATIONAL tracking polls]"
Do you realize that the election is NOT won on popular vote?
Do you realize that the election is won by the Electoral College?
Do you think that Obama will lose any Kerry state? If so, which one?
Do you realize that Obama now has leads in New Mexico and Colorado that are greater than 6%? Do you think that he will lose either of those two states?
Add Kerry states (251 EC votes), plus NM (5 EC votes) and CO (9 EC votes), we have 265 EC votes.
Given the above, if Obama wins ANY of the following toss-up or slightly leaning states, he goes over 270 EC votes:
Virginia - 13 EC votes (currently Obama +6.4 per Pollster.com)
Ohio - 20 EC votes (currently Obama + 2.5)
Indiana - 11 EC votes (currently McCain +3.1)
Missouri - 11 EC votes (currently Obama +.1)
Nevada - 5 EC votes (currently Obama +2.4)
West Virginia - 5 EC votes (currently McCain +2.8)
North Carolina - 15 EC votes (currently Obama +2.8)
Florida - 27 EC votes (currently Obama +5.5)
Do you REALLY think that McCain will win each and every one of those states?
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:29 AM
@Keep VA Red
As an aside, of course in every election there are some crossover voters (Republicans voting for the Democratic candidate, and vice-versa).
In any event, I would just suggest that your wife think back to what the economy was like during the last Democratic administration, then think about what has happened with the economy over the last eight years of a Republican administration, and finally consider that McCain has been in lockstep with that Republican administration on economic issues. If after doing all that she still thinks Obama presents a greater economic risk than McCain, then I guess she may will end up as one of those crossovers.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:30 AM
You can be scared of her mother too! Because she says exactly the same thing. And the great thing ... they both live in battleground states ... VA & CO!
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:31 AM
DTM: She's already thought of all that. Her 1% holdout possibility is based solely on the abortion issue. She is 100% convinced that Obama will wreck our economy.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:33 AM
@Mike in Maryland
I think you forgot Iowa, a 2004 Bush state. The Kerry states, plus Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado, are sufficient for Obama to win the election.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:37 AM
In 2004, TIFF was the closest. Interesting.
After the 2000 election, Zogby claimed to be the closest, and rode a lot of publicity on that fact in the 2004 election cycle.
Who will win the sweepstakes this year? No one knows right now. And that is why you look at the directions that the polls are going over a period of days or weeks, not from one day to the next.
By the last week, all the polls should start to converge towards a consensus point. But even so, there will be a spread of points between the polls, some lower than the final actual margin, some higher than the actual margin.
But then again, the national popular vote total doesn't make a hill of beans difference. If it did, January 20, 2001 would have seen President Gore in the Inaugural Parade Reviewing stand.
Now all you neo-con, Reich-wing Republicans, tell all of us the states that McBush will win to get the 270 Electoral College votes.
Well, if under the current conditions she is still 100% certain that Republican policies on the economy are the right way to go, then I guess she is not exactly persuadable.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:39 AM
I think O takes the Kerry states plus NM and IA ... and falls short
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:42 AM
There is one bright lining to an Obama presidency ... I am a huge Alabama Crimson Tide fan ... and I get to call him "Gobama" for 4 years!
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:44 AM
You are correct. Thank you for posting that correction.
Makes it even more difficult for a McShrub win, doesn't it? Especially when Iowa is now (according to Pollster.com) favoring Obama by 11.4 and New Mexico favoring Obama by 7.4.
McLameBrain needs to run the board of all the remaining states (except maybe North Dakota with 3 EC votes). If Colorado is favoring Obama by 6.2, Florida favoring Obama by 5.5, Virginia favoring Obama by 6.4, and several other Shrub states at least 4% for Obama, it makes it look like McSame doesn't need to make an inside straight, but rather (holding just the Ace) needs a four card draw to make a Royal Flush. Anyone know the odds of that?
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:49 AM
Well VA, your wife obviously has a very short memory. These were the same EXACT arguments word for word the Republicans were trying to scare everyone with in '92 before Clinton came to office. How did that work out for the economy?
Also..you might want to clue her in on a little something.. the economy IS WRECKED.. right now. And "liberals" didn't wreck it. Some dots are not so hard to connect.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:50 AM
Catholics moving toward McCain... Thank you Palin.
Posted on October 17, 2008 10:58 AM
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