Pollster.com

Wow. Major expansion of the lead no matter how you slice it.

I can't believe there are now SEVEN companies doing National Daily Tracking polls (GWU is a non-daily tracking poll, so they don't count). Plus there are now 10 daily numbers released (the 7 polls +2 LV models for Gallup and 1 RV model from ABC/Washington Post).

Anyways, here is the average for the seven numbers released today (still waiting on IBD/TIPP and the two from ABC/Washington Post):

Research 2000 (for Daily Kos)
50/42

Rasmussen
50/46

Hotline (for Diageo)
47/41

Gallup
52/41

Gallup (LV Traditional)
51/44

Gallup (LV Expanded)
52/42

Zogby (for Reuters/C-SPAN)
50.3/42.4

Average = 50.3/42.6 or Obama +7.7%

Yesterday's Average (Just These Seven Tracking Polls) = 50.1/43.3 or Obama +6.4%

+0.2 Obama, -0.7 McCain = 0.9 Point Obama Swing

Hi Boom! You okay...Is that statistical tie you've been promising me?

Hope you are okay pumpkin!

I see what is happening. McCain is surging in "real America" as shown by Battleground polling but Obama is doing well in "Communist-abortionist-homsexual-America"

I see what is happening. McCain is surging in "real America" as shown by GWU/Battleground polling but Obama is doing well in "Communist-abortionist-homsexual-America"

Just noting again the "expanded" model actually includes fewer people than the traditional model. To summarize my prior post on this subject, it seems to me that means in Gallup's traditional model a strong voting history can offset a relative lack of interest/enthusiasm, and that right now there are more marginal voters in that category than in the relatively strong interest/enthusiasm but relative weak voting history category.

omg look at that lead, hmmmm mcsame must be on suicide watch!

@Pro
Yep, you're right. We just hope that after the election the two will split!
Proudly living in Obama's America!

I thought Foxnews said the race was tightening.
Damn You Steve "Douche Bag" Doocy.

nice observation @DTM. It'll be something to watch this on election day.

By the way, it now looks like Rasmussen is the outlier. Although, they've always been last to show movement one way or the other this season, so it could just take a day or two longer to begin to show Obama's movement.

Anyway you slice it, Obama is outside the margin of error (by more than two points), and that can't be anything but a very good thing.

looks like the colin powell surge has hit !

boom, will the race be tied by this Sunday or next Sunday?

how can someone be wrong about EVERYTHING?

This poll is great news for McCain, conservatives become more energized by these bias polls and the libs become more complacent. Let keep Obama numbers up.

We're ****ed BOOM!:(

Slight correction. The Yesterday's average should read:

50.1/43.3 or Obama +6.8%

It was 6.8% yesterday, not 6.4%. Everything else is correct.

I still see this poll as the gold standard and it's motion this week indicates not only that the race is stable, but that Obama's lead is essentially insurmountable.

McCain surge?

The surge is working.

I can't believe there are now SEVEN companies doing National Daily Tracking polls

Seriously. I'm starting to wonder if I'm the only person in America who has never received a phone call for a presidential poll.

Hey do any of you Libs know exactly what type of "international crisis" Joe Biden has guarranteed us? Do you also think a possible terrorist attack is an acceptable price to pay for electing Obama. I hope he is worth it. I just hope It happens in a lib town.

southern angler your post was stupid. Cmon' man. We gotta let it go. We've lost. Even our man Rasmussen at 4%. If it's at 4% on Nov. 4th that's 300+ electoral votes for Obama.:( ROMNEY the Mormon '012!!!

@southern angler

Ahem... Gallup has a history of, like, 72 years of polling for elections.

If they were "biased", they wouldn't have survived on the market for that long...

Further evidence that the Battleground Poll from this morning should be used as toilet paper. As far as Rasmussen I would like to see a point or two added onto O's margin. He expanded the Dem party ID advantage more and O's numbers went down. Not sure what is going on there. Obama is at 50+ in the wide majority of these polls keep up the good work. Another NC poll that shows Obama up slightly.

And they've only called the outcome wrong once.

southern angler go back to your confederate state you stupid ****. We are sounding pathetic. Give it up.

I agree with you PJ FFM I really think Obama is up by 30%.

I've never recieved a phone call for a poll so your not hte only one. In fact I don't know anyone who has.

This is great news for Obama. Even though he has some work to do still, every day that McCain is not gaining is a good day for Obama.

@Sothern Angler

Republicans can lose faith and not bother to vote for a losing cause just as much, if not more, than Obama voters get too complacent. Every poll show much more enthusiasm by Obama supporters. This would point to a "vote no matter what" menatality.

I'm not voting.

Obama if the campaign continues to run with focus and GOTV will win with 390 EVs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=243gXtXtEwc

@ AlanKeyes

You should still vote.

Washington Post is now going to be doing a Daily Tracker as well....

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/10/parsing_the_tracking_poll.html

Obama 53-McCain 44 is their starting point today

@ alankeyesisawesome:

Then you've no right to complain.

Come on November.

Alankeysisawesome: May I recommend writing in Ron Paul?

modrat I think all of you Obama followers should start to celebrate right now, forget about the actual election. All of you have worked so hard to get Obama's poll numbers hig, you should be proud. In fact I here by do declared Obama the next president. So please turn off your computer and get ready to spend all of the free money Obama has promised you. I'm gonna buy a new airplane and a castle with my Obama bucks.

@alankeysisawesome

When are you going to confess to everyone you've been an Obama supporter all along?

@southern angler

If you think you're impressing anyone with your "forget about the actual election" psychology, you're not....

What free money Obama has promised me. I must have missed that letter. I don't have a job here in the Great Depression of Nevada so I'd take some free money but where did he say he's giving free money I want to be first in line.LOL

Seriously tho McCain has promised nothing to help me or anyone else in Nevada. SO what he gives more tax breaks to Wynn and that helps me how?Wynn is already making money hand over fist and look at the state of Nevada as we speak.

ATTENTION fellow Obama supporters! This is a very important petition about Michelle Bachmann from Minnesota. She told Chris Matthews that Obama and other Democrats in Congress have anti-American views. Please sign and forward to everyone you know. I also sent her opponent $! Happy to help out anyway I can! :-)
http://www.censurebachmann.com/

@ Southern Angle

You don't have the ability to declare the next president. But I appreciate your sarcasm and, believe it or not, your point of view. I do wish you would not wish our country to have a terroist attack just because your man lost. That sounds anti-american to me.

I even have some new t-shirts for sale. I wanted to offer them to Libs first, the new t's say
"America is the land of Pussies, We surrendered in Iraq. We love Obama."

Which one of you Libs wants to buy the first shirt?

southern angler thanks for giving people a reason to, as usual, find Southerners stupid and uneducated. KNOCK IT OFF MAN.

alan keys what size do you want and how many?

I wonder if this is the first 'real' poll to include the Powell bump. I've seen a lot of comments from military personnel (especially) that they were just waiting for an excuse to vote for Obama, and Powell gave it to them.

southern angler, I hope you served your country at some point in your life because you talk some pretty big talk when others are the ones doing the fighting.

way to show everyone your redneck, lack of education ways SOuthern.

America is the land of stupids with people like you around.

Glass,I woudln't dobut it. There was a news crew from KVBc out at Fallon yesterday and his endorsement went over real well it seems.

@ alan

the southerner is making Republicans look stupid too. Its people like him that have ruined a once grand old party and turned it into a fearfull bunch of ignorant followers.

Really its too bad. We need the old Republican party back to act as a check to an overambitious government. But so long as folks like Sothern Rangler speak for the GPO it is doomed.

For a moment, I thought that alankeyEsisawesome was breaking out of character. My mistake.

New t-shirt idea,

"I Joe Biden guarrantee an international crisis within 6 months if you elect Obama."

I need to get started on these shirts right now, I'm gonna rich, YEAH, sorry to all the people who are going to actually die in this crisis. I guess the dems don't care, just so long as Obama gets elected. Some messiah

Sorry GOP not GPO (I've been a system admin for too long)

My mistake it was Nellis where the news crew was.

@ Glasshalfway

I did not think the Powell endorsment meant anything as far as polls go. But it seems to have started a "WTF is up with the Republicans" movement. His critic was so spot on that a lot of non wing-nut center/right people are moving away from McCain.

Biden even promises that public response to this international crisis will be unpopular. Thanks for the heads up Joe. Wish I had some friends outside of the county to visit within this six months period, sounds scary.

@southernfondler

There you go again moron. Have you ever served in the US Military? What have you ever done for you country but come in here and bash people that are out there fighting for it. Last time I checked people from all over this country have gone to war in Iraq and Afghanistan and here you are talking like the blood that they've spilled in those distant lands is some sort of political tool and that the lives of those patriots only count if they were Republican.

Well I guess by your logic then all those people in NY that died in the terror attacks of 9/11 don't count because they weren't real Americans now were they. You on the other hand hiding here in a blog can smear the names of the great men and women of this country with impunity and annonymity.

Well done.

Awesome poll(s)! I like the way Gallup breaks this out into three different tracks.

My sense is that RV's may end up being most accurate this year, though perhaps it will be the Gallup LV2 model. I think the LV1 (traditional) just isn't going to catch the Obama wave. There are too many enthusiastic new voters in the pool for that, this time....

In repect to Bidens internation crisis guarrantee, how many American deaths are acceptable for an Obama presidency?

CRAP!

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/21/palin-vp-senate/

I ain't counting chickens 'til they're roasted. Until I wake up on the morning after, and read about it in the paper, I ain't gonna believe it. Having said that, this poll is certainly good news.

@SA

How many were acceptable during a bush presidency? Let's see

5000+soldiers
3000+during 9/11
100,000 Iraq's
30,000 Afgani's

Are those acceptable to you?

Eat my **** you low life.

@southern angler

Too late Buddy, I already voted Obama.

LOL.

alankeysisawesome: CRAP!

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/21/palin-vp-senate/

After watching Sarah Palin close up for the last few weeks, I take back every unkind thing I ever said about Dan Quayle. The man was a frickin' genius.

@mysticlaker

Thank you that dope makes me so mad. Obviously never served his country and spends all day in here working against the people who do.

One of those 5000+ soldiers that died was a friend of mine and his daughter, that he never met in life is a constant reminder to me of the incompetence and arrogance of the last administration.

Makes me just sick to hear people like the "dangler" talk as if they know anything about war, its excesses and how that affects all Americans.

The ignorance of ideology.

Dwarf
I spent five years in the US Navy. Seven months in Beirut, Lebannon with the "Gator Navy" Marines with the Interntional Peace Keep Force. I also landed in Grenada with Operation Urgent Fury.
I am a deoorated veteran with an Armed Forces Expeditionary, Naval Expeditionary, Humanitarian Service, metal awards.
What military service do you have?

@SA

Even worse if were in the military. You should be saddened by the state of our current military and what the republicans have done to it.

And you should know that EVERY ONE OF THOSE SOLDIERS DEATH IN IRAQ was the result of tragic stupid president. Those soldiers served their country, but they also unfortunatly served a stupid commander in chief.

Wow, Obama would have to face an international crisis within his first six months?

I'll take that. John McCain would BE an international crisis on day one.

Hey "dangler"

They are medals not metals. Did you just look those up on the Interweb so you can sound like you've got combat experience? Read a book by Mark Bowden?

Fail...

@ Southern Angler

You are lying dude. You have never served in the military. Go sell some T-Shirts but cut the crap. Does your mom know you are blogging?

We where under fire everynight for the entire seven months. Beirut was a beautiful city with sand colored buildings, nearly all where peppered with gunshots or burn marks.
We where young and fearless and all of us were voluteers. We were proud to serve our country. I don't think any military person wants you libs speaking for them.

southern angler thanks for your service. Looks like those missions you were on did real well:)

Google the "USS Trenton LPD 14" you will see for yourself. 1983-1885

southern angler I have several military friends who are pro-Obama. What's your point dumb ****? Back in NAM! You are giving us conservatives a bad name. This is EXACTLY why our party is about to go into hiding for 8 or more years.

1983-1985

New National Pew Poll: Obama +14

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/10/obama-widens-lead-in-pew-poll.html

Et tu, Traditional LV model?

Wonder how Drudge and RCP will report this one...

southern angler: "In repect to Bidens internation crisis guarrantee, how many American deaths are acceptable for an Obama presidency?"

Uh, yours?

Your welcome Alan Keys , we saved alot of college kids in Grenada and even more civilians in Beirut.