Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

US: Obama 52, McCain 42 (Zogby 10/19-21)

Topics: PHome

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby
10/19-21,08; 1,208 LV 2.9%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National
Obama 52, McCain 42

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

Even though I take Zogby with a grain of salt, this time he seems to be right in line with at least 4 other recent polls showing about a 10 point lead.

Get out and vote now if you can. Lines on election day will be GINORMOUS!

Landslide Baby Landslide!

____________________

Commander_King:

Looks like double digits are becoming the norm.

____________________

johncoz:

Yesterday's daily weighted average for all 12 national polls was:

Obama 50.7/ McCain 42.7/ +8

For the three-day trackers, the figures are obviously more conservative but probably a more reliable indicator of the trend:

Obama 50.3/ McCain 43.5/ +6.9

The seven-day graph of the daily trackers shows that the national numbers have now rebooted back to an almost identical standing as last Wednesday. McCain has lost an entire week:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3194/2962718755_5e9cebde07_b.jpg

This situation is not totally unexpected. On Sunday I posted the following remark with my daily summary: "McCain's polling prognosis for the next couple of days in this aggregation is not good, unless Obama is pegged down today, since the Democrat's worst numbers in a fortnight will roll out of the trackers on Tuesday morning."

In addition, careful consideration of the other polls shows an even more worrying concern for McCain. The spread values are closely correlated with voter models, as far as we can discern them. What if Pew is closer to the truth than, say, Rasmussen? My tracker graph is generally best-case for McCain, but if the actual turnout is anything close to the expectations of the Obama campaign, then this will be the killing fields for the GOP on November 4.

And as a footnote, this exchange from CNN with Florida's Republican Governor Crist (hat tip Sullivan):
I asked Crist if he thought Palin was going to lure undecided voters to the ticket.
"I think we both know the answer to that," he said. "But there's no question she fired up the base."

Devastating. And on an even happier note, from that far-right megaphone, Mark Steyn: "It's going to be a long eight years."


____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

Boomshak Bumper Sticker Poll
(10/20 - 10/21) 1,500 Cars MOE: 3.0%
Mode: Sitting in Rush Hour Traffic in Reputed Republican Stronghold.

McCain/Palin Bumper Stickers: 41%
Obama/Biden Bumper Stickers: 31%

Conclusion: The surge worked.

____________________

MDB1974:

Al Quieda ways in for McCain, Interesting to see if this get's coverage and what the ramifications will be.

____________________

Trosen:

How's old Al doing these days? Any relation to Al Qaeda?

Anyway, wasn't Zogby the trolls' shining beacon of hope a few days ago? I guess it's back to "outlier" status now.

____________________

modrat:

Another day of McCain not gaining in the polls.

Tick Tock
Tick Tock
Tick Tock

____________________

political_junki:

Come on guys, lets be happy without somehow sticking it in BOOM, I think he gets it. Lets not make it a race between boom and obama...

____________________

Paul:

Zogby Internals October 22

Overall: Obama 51.6, McCain 42.0

Dems Obama 85.3, McCain 10.3
Reps McCain 83.3, Obama 11.1
Inds Obama 58.4, McCain 31.1

Already voted Obama 60.8, McCain 34.3

Males Obama 48.0, McCain 45.5
Females Obama 54.9, McCain 38.7

Whites McCain 49.5, Obama 44.0
Hispanics Obama 63.2, McCain 32.0
AA Obama 93.3, McCain 1.9
Asian Obama 48.9 McCain 42.1

Liberals Obama 88.0, McCain 7.3
Moderates Obama 59.9, McCain 35.4
Conservatives McCain 71.6, Obama 20.6


____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR