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US: Obama 52, McCain 43 (Gallup-10/17-19)

Topics: PHome

Gallup
10/17-19/08, 2%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National

2,774 Registered Voters:
Obama 52, McCain 41

2,271 Likely Voters-Expanded:
Obama 52, McCain 43

2,340 Likely Voters-Traditional:
Obama 50, McCain 45

 

Comments
OGLiberal:

Some definite tightening here :-) Cancel the election - just hand the presidency over to McCain. No reason to prolong this any longer.

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IndependentThinker:

ummm as far as I remember boomCLUELESS liked Gallup (traditional model) when it was showing +2 I doubt he likes it now
whatever!

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Question: Do the pollsters ask if people have already voted? If so, how does this affect the stats?

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OGLiberal:

TIPP today almost the same as yesterday. Obama improved by .1% and McCain lost .1%. They now show a 5.3% Obama lead.

This is a 5-7pt national race at this point with Obama consistently polling at 50 or above in just about every national and key swing state poll. That being the case, it's going to be really tough for McCain to map out a road to victory. If you're for Obama now, you likely aren't going to change your mind. And if that's the case for 50% or more of the voters, especially in the states where it counts, that's big trouble for McCain.

That said, it ain't over 'til it's over and I'm not going to rest easy until November 5th. Two weeks is a lifetime in politics. But the "fundamentals" certainly don't look strong for McCain.

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Eternal:

Worse for McCain national polls don't tell the story. McCain has a great job of making deep red states redder but not moving things on the margin.

Lot's of wasted (wasted terms of EC votes)

OK- +31
UT- +32
TN- +20
WY- +25
SD- +15
SC- +15
NE- +21
MS- +11
ID- +33
AZ- +13
AK- +13
AL- +24

Impressive margins but they make the EC race look closer than it is if you use national numbers to gauge the race.

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DTM:

So like many people, I am having trouble figuring out how the expanded model has fewer likely voters than the traditional model.

The only thing I can think is that in the traditional model, Gallup is weighting voting history such that it can actually override relatively weak scores on the other two factors (interest in the campaign and stated intentions)--"relatively weak" meaning scores that would not have been sufficient to qualify a voter under the "expanded" model. If true, what that implies is that McCain's relative boost in the "traditional" model is derived at least in part from people with relatively weak scores on these other two measures.

So I actually think the difference between the traditional and expanded models has been slightly mischaracterized by some (including, in the past, me). The choice of model isn't just a question of whether relatively enthusiastic but new voters will show up this year (leading to the nominal "expanded" model being more appropriate), but also whether relatively unenthusiastic but former voters will show up (leading to the "traditional" model being more appropriate).

And judging from the fact the traditional model actually ends up with more likely voters than the so-called "expanded" model, if anything it would seem the second question is more important than the first. In other words, by Gallup's calculations it appears there are more unenthusiastic-but-former-voters than enthusiastic-but-new-voters on the margins, which is how you could get the traditional model bigger than the "expanded" model.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

A float of 1% for a candidate is relatively meaningless. That said, McCain needs to start closing the gap, and each day he fails to do that is troubling for sure.

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alankeyesisawesome:

Only 5% with the correct methodology, and incorporating the MOE, we reduce Obama's lead to 48 and increase McCain's to 47...then McCain is only 1 point behind. Great news!

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Trosen:

Yesterday's "old school" LV that was down to 2 yesterday had the wingnuts soiling themselves with excitement. Now even that model "assuming people vote EXACTLY the same way they did in '04) is up to 5. But these national polls are meaningless anyway. all the while Obama has either widened or at least solidified his lead in almost every major toss-up state and is seriously challenging in others where McCain can't even fathom losing. As I said a week ago, and Eternal pointed out the the #s. the McCain campaigns bringing home the "base" has done just that. Outside of those lock-down strongholds, it's not happening.

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Eternal:

Alan, or 13.... ;0


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alankeyesisawesome:

@Eternal

Yes, but your simulation requires the American people to be complete idiots/anti-american, which they're not. Gimme a break.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

AKiA:

The only people who are anti-American in this election are the ones who are trying to create these divisions between "pro-American" areas and assuredly "anti-American" areas. Heck, McPalin is even trying to divide states (see Virginia). It's insidious.

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Unbiased08:

Someone forgot to tell gallup that the race is tightening.

Obama is improving in half the tracking polls and mccain is improving in the other half. that's the definition of statistcal noise right there, kids.

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PortlandRocks:

alankeyesisawesome needs to educate.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Oh, and the race is obviously tightening. Calling who isn't a socialist a socialist and creating fictional middle class figures who would be "hurt" in the Obama tax plan is clearly working.

My favorite Fixed News take is that the Colin Powell endorsement, from someone who is among the most widely respected people in this country by either side of the political spectrum...and especially independents...is somehow a "one day story".

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Knyght:

It will certainly be interesting to see how/if the Powell endorsement affects the poll numbers. I tend to agree that there's been some modest tightening over the last few polls, but it certainly doesn't feel like a momentum changer, and McCain's numbers in the swing states still translate to significant concerns for that camp. The NC numbers in particular, should be troubling to them. If the red states are going redder, it doesn't help him at all.

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johncoz:

@Unbiased08

The weighted aggregations will show a slight improvement for Obama, maintaining his position over 50%.

It is pointless hanging too much on individual polls.

At at the level that actually counts, the EVs, there is not a pollster in the known universe that shows a McCain win based on the data at hand.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

I have to modify my statement to say that I was being sarcastic, in that I don't really think the race is tightening that substantially and the new tactics that the GOP is using are not going to work as much as they need them too.

Ayers, Joe the Plumber, "Socialism"...they're still looking for a game changer. There's nothing left for them but to attack and lie and then attack and lie some more.

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Cho:

maybe as important as the steady good numbers in the polls are the first early voting numbers. they look excellent for obama!

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burrito:

It is funny how the likes of boomshak and alankeyesisawesome make the same erroneous assumptions and outrageous statements (one has to wonder if they are one and the same) ... they always take the MOE (margin of error) to their advantage (incorrectly, I must say) ... they never make the opposite erroneous assumption with the poll MOE (+2), that instead it could be Obama 52 and McCain 43!!

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mattn:

Good catch by DTM (or have other people already noticed this?) I had assumed that this was a typo when I saw it earlier, but I guess Gallup has been consistently showing more voters in what I had assumed would be a tighter screen. Does anyone know if Gallup has given any explanation for this? DTM's suggestion seems reasonable at first blush, but this means that the criteria used for the voting screens are not independent. I'd like to know if this is indeed the case, since it really begs the question of whether there are other criteria we know much less about.


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mac7396:

It's over.

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joethedummer:

lol, I love how boomcrack brings out alan keys when the polls go north for obama hahah

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rosh400:

ABC/Wash Post due out later. Judging by the teasers this morning about negative reaction to Palin and lack of reaction to Ayers, my guess is that we are going to see steady state from previous poll which was o+10.

Also, if you look at the Suffolk internals, Joe the plumber does not seem to be having any impact.

Regardless of what the polls say, however, all Obama supporters should be working your butts off between now and when the polls close on 11/4. Take nothing for granted and never give up. Fight all the way and close strong.

I drove to Richmond VA (290 miles roundtrip) on Saturday to canvass with my 8 year old and 11 year old. Plan to be canvassing again the two final Saturdays and will take leave on Election Day to help out.

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