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US: Obama 52, McCain 43 (Gallup-10/27-29)

Topics: PHome

Gallup Poll
10/27-29/08; 2,459 LV-Expanded, 2%
Mode: Live Telephon Interviews

Registered Voters:
Obama 52, McCain 41

Likely Voters-Expanded:
Obama 52, McCain 43

Likely Voters-Traditional:
Obama 51, McCain 43

 

Comments
mandalorianarmy:
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NorthernObserver:

@mandalorianarmy

I see your Kool video and raise you a hot Steam video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwnqqj5Q1BU

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DTM:

To summarize my commentary elsewhere, it is interesting to see these numbers converging as early voting progresses and some of the uncertainty relected in the likely voter models is eliminated. It seems to me that means it looks increasingly likely that Obama is going to get his new voters to turn out, while at the same time it remains unclear whether McCain's relatively unenthusiastic supporters will turn out.

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mandalorianarmy:
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SmarterThanYou:

If Obama Get's out the vote like they plan. He can get around 350 EV +

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Flashlight:

@mandalorianarmy

"Yeah-hoo!"

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DTM:

"reFlected"

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Terranus:

if this is real and nothing extraordinary happens, Obama wins or Gallup must hide for sometime afterwards...

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ctj:

I hate to admit it, but I miss boomshack.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

There's been a lot of floating within the margin of error lately, but besides that, it Gallup has been very steady for a long time.

And ctj, I don't miss him at all. And I certainly won't miss him will we are discussion the results on Tuesday night.

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political_junki:

Too bad boomshak is not here anymore, he could have explained to us Obama has bought Gallup for $50mil

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mac7396:

I will play the part of Boomshak:

"LIES"

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pbcrunch:

I'm glad boom is gone. Good riddance... back to polls...

This has been a great day of polls for Obama; nothing else needs to be said.

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NW Patrick:

GEORGIA from Rsrch 2000:

by kos
Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 10:35:03 AM PDT
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/14-15 results)

Chambliss (R) 47 (47)
Martin (D) 46 (45)
Buckley (L) 5 (5)

Call it a gain for Martin if you want, but it's more like float in the MoE. If no candidate gets above 50 percent, this race is headed into a December runoff between the top two vote getters. We may be battling for that 60th Senate seat late into the year. But look at these early voting numbers:

Already voted (12 percent of sample)

Chambliss (R) 39
Martin (D) 56
Buckley (L) 5

Those are real votes we're putting away in the bank -- a nice head start heading into Election Day. Given the tightness of the results, this one will be decided by turnout. Same with the presidential race:

McCain (R) 47 (49)
Obama (D) 44 (43)

Already voted

McCain (R) 40
Obama (D) 55

We can really win this one, which is why Obama is back on the air in the Georgia. Let's close this out, for both Obama and Martin.

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joethedummer:

this is huge, I was not exspecting this big a margin at all from gallup.I figured maybe6-7 for obama , but wowwwwwww!
I bet that infomercial will solidify obama by 6 across the board going into tuesdy!

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orange24:

Stunning!

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ctj:

CS,

I am just saying I miss boom's ridiculous posts (not the ones with racist overtones), but I would sometimes laugh out loud as to how delusional he was.

Ok, I will fill in for him for a moment here-

GALLUP SHOWS A SURGE FOR MCCAIN due to the fact that Joe McCarthy jumped out of his grave and has confirmed that Obama is a communist and his ancestors secretly hid The Rosenberg's in their house!

LOL!

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ctj:

New GA senate poll from Ras

Chambliss 48
martin 43

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wotan:

Maybe we can get Rick Davis banned, too. If McCain does not finish within 3-4% of Obama in Iowa, the man's cred is permanently shot. And if the other polls are right, he's going to have to explain how he let it slip in only three days.

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laguna_b:

Am I imagining things or did Gallup go from +2 to +8 overnight on the traditional?

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BridgeportJoe:

It seems to me that means it looks increasingly likely that Obama is going to get his new voters to turn out

I was wondering this yesterday. With widespread early voting, it seems to me that pollsters have a big universe of people to check and see if their likely voter screens are working. For example, they talk to Joe Smith who is a big Obama supporter -- but who hasn't voted in the past three elections and who matches demographic characteristics that otherwise would show that he's unlikely to vote. Except that he already has! Do pollsters say, "hey, wait a minute, even though are screens show that Joe and people like him will only vote 1/3 of the time, do we correct for the fact that early voting patterns show that they are going to vote 4/5 of the time in this election?"

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FlyOnTneWall:

Gallup's traditional model was the model most out-of-whack with what we're seeing in the early voting. Over the past three days, early voters have gone from 18% to 24% of the sample, and they overwhelmingly favor Obama. If it was simply the same Obama voters shifting from "likely" to "early," that wouldn't matter. But Gallup wasn't predicting that early voters would tilt toward Obama disproportionately.

Think of it this way. Gallup's traditional model screened out Obama 'bounce' voters, even if they were very enthusiastic. Now that they're telling the pollsters that they've actually gone and voted, they're included in the sample. So the traditional model is shifting rapidly, and coming into alignment with the preferences of people who are actually going to vote in this remarkable year.

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PCPaula:

Hi - this is my first post. I've been reading these comments for about a month now and just had to finally join in. :o)

I'm in Ohio and for the first time ever voted early - waited in line for only 1 1/2 hrs. In Montgomery County alone, Ohio is seeing an unprecedented number of early voters - we broke over 2,000 yesterday and the day before - record numbers for our county! Based on the voter 'sample ballot' cards in most of the voters' hands that I saw, I'd say the Democrats in our area are turning out in droves. I hate the fact that my state helped determine the last two elections in the Republicans favor, and I'm very encouraged that we just might be playing a role in helping to decide this election...but in a different direction. Keeping my fingers crossed! :o)

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RussTC3:

Average of 10/31/2008 Tracking Polls: Zogby, R2K, Rasmussen, Hotline and Gallup (10/30/2008 in parenthesis)
Obama 50.7 (50.0)
McCain 43.3 (44.1)

That's a 1.5 point swing in just one day, so it looks like the slight tightening is starting to reverse itself.

Obama +7.4% (+5.9%)

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BarackO'Clinton:

Yeah, if there was any thread that needed some boomshak - it's this one.

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Zeidan:

Gallup is my favorite poll for many reasons, but this is... something.

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bamabadger:

OK, so I am knew with the poll thing but the McCain pollster keeps insisting this thing is a ton closer than what EVERY other poll is saying. What are they seeing? Is this just posturing?

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thoughtful:

It is interesting to see the divergence of spreads between Gallup LVs (+8/+9)and Rasmussen(+4%).

It's the averages, isn't it? Obama has a very solid 6+% lead, 390+ EVs, he won't win AR ha ha, but will win IN, MO and GA.

GOTV, turnout will decide the extent of the landslide.

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striatic:

it seems slightly odd for the number of undecideds to go UP from 4% to 6% so close to the election.

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bamabadger:

sorry "new"

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drdr:

laguna

Gallup was at +2 Obama LV1 on Oct. 27. Went to +8 Obama for polls ending Oct. 30. So not overnight, but a pretty rapid shift.

I agree with others that the voters who were getting screened out by the LV1 model turned out to be early voters and therefore are now added to Obama's total.

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cinnamonape:

Bridgeport Joe:"Do pollsters say, "hey, wait a minute, even though are screens show that Joe and people like him will only vote 1/3 of the time, do we correct for the fact that early voting patterns show that they are going to vote 4/5 of the time in this election?"

Actually the problem is more difficult than that. They would certainly know that a lot of people who are early voters are also first time voters, new voters, or perhaps "discouraged" irregular voters. But how do they go about estimating from those that have voted (100%) to estimating to those that haven't? Would it mean that those new voters that haven't are 0% or 100% or (more likely) something in between.

I think that they can make an estimate of the actual numbers of new voters already voting . They can then take this and subtract it from their total new registrants. But the remainder would have to be "guesstimated". Are all or most of those who were part of the proportion the expected to vote already within the early voter poll? Or are the remaining non-voters just as enthusiastic and likely to turn out as the early voters?

One possible way that they might have been able to evaluate this is if they had taken a poll of the new registrants just before the early voting period and asked "How likely is it that you will vote?" Then if they ask the same question now of those that have not yet voted it might show the differentials between those that voted earlyvs. late in enthusiasm levels.

Also there might be partisan differences in the results. Not all new registrants are necessarily Obama supporters. Perhaps many of those not intending to vote are McCain supporters.

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Mister H.:

I kind of miss Boomshak's unique trolling....err....."insight" as well.

What would he say about today's numbers?

A +3 shift in two of the three models for Obama and a +8 lead even in the TRADITIONAL model...the one that Boom insisted was so important when it was down to 2 not long ago?

I wonder what he would say...

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bclintonk:

bamabadger,
McCain's house pollster isn't showing us his polls. I think you need to take his public statements as pure spin. Frankly, I think the McCain camp already knows they've lost this thing. They just need to put up a brave front because you don't want to go out looking like a quitter, and because hundreds of down-ballot Republican candidates need Republicans to turn out on election day or this could turn into a real bloodbath. If the McCain camp told the truth---"Yeah, we know we're down 7 nationally, Pennsylvania's been out of reach for a month and it's not realistic to think we can win a clean sweep of all the true battleground states"---dispirited Republican voters would stay home in droves, the Dems would easily win their 60 vote Senate majority, 40 or 50 House seats would shift from R to D, and the Dems would romp in state legislative races.

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PJ_FFM:

@mandalorianarmy

Too early for that... but I guess this one - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iikKzQwgBJc - might be the Queen-stuff of the hour... for Democrats and Obama-voters, that is...

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steph:

the dates in the headline for this poll are wrong. They should read 10/28- 10/30. This makes the poll much more significant

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bamabadger:

bclintonk

Thanks, I really didn't consider the down ballot issues invlvolved.

For you junkies, what are we hearing about the youth vote. I know I probably fit into that catagory and I have not voted yet but every news clip of these long lines seems to have a ton of "youth" in it. Are we really anticipating the youth to come out, do they really need to?

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Paul:

If you look at Gallup RV demographics for gender for six weeks (post Palin rollout two weeks after GOP convention) running up to Oct 20-26 (the last week we have data from Gallup), Obama advantage with RV women has been as follows: 13, 13, 14, 14, 15 and last week 16. In 2004, 54% of the electorate were women. With Obama now up RV +11 overall, equaling his highest advantage, unless Obama's lead with RV males has increased to 6 (very doubtful I would think), Obama's lead with RV females has now increased past 16.

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Lou-NH:

@bamabadger

The short answer is YES !!! you need to get out and VOTE !!!!

Now in a more civil tone, why wouldn't you want your voice heard by the counting of your ballot regardless of the outcome. The youth vote is one of the cornerstones to this election and will be remembered as such for generations to come. Be a part of history. Every vote counts.

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thoughtful:

This could well turn into a rout, if there is any kind of increase in 18-29 turnout, we are going to have a landslide comparable to Johnson's victory over Barry Goldwater in '64.

390+ EVs

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shirefox:

Without Boomshak in the comments, I can almost get through them now. Volume is way down. :)

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C.S.Strowbridge:

pbcrunch:
"I'm glad boom is gone. Good riddance... back to polls...
This has been a great day of polls for Obama; nothing else needs to be said."

I agree with both parts 100%.

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shirefox:

bclintonk,
Conventional wisdom holds that candidates who "know" they're going to lose take a softer stance going into election day. McCain and his Spitbull aren't doing that. They're as mean and dirty as ever. Post-election recovery is going to practically impossible.

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Basil:

Welcome Paula and badger

Paula, even waiting in line for an hour and a half is something many would-be voters might not have time to do. Kudos to you. I'm sorry you aren't using vote-by-mail.

badger, yes you should vote, for may reasons.
1) Polls are unreliable.
2) Republicans (the odious neocon dark-side ones anyway) cheat like crazy while accusing others of doing so (Ohio '04 and now).
3) The idea (to me) isn't to defeat the GOP but to bury it so deeply that when it comes back its current leaders are gone.
4) This is a historic event, for us and the world, a return to democracy after 8 long years of banana republicans.
5) Difficult things need to be done in the next 8 years that an Obama mandate will make that much easier.
6) Everybody should vote anyway, regardless of whom they support. This is supposed to be a democracy.

Sorry. I get carried away.

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terrapinwill:

This is proof positive that the race is functionally tied. This is showing what we all knew was coming, national polls catching up with state polls.

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Terranus:

it is strange anyway, that voters have to wait in lines for hours to vote. In other democracies, you do not wait longer than 20mins (most European countries) although they still use the old paper ballot method - no machines etc.
There are not enough polling stations obviously

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OneAngryDwarf:

Stevens is going down in AK!!!

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/14-16. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/15-17 results.)

Senate

Stevens (R) 46 (44)
Begich (D) 48 (50)

Chalk up another Senate seat!!!

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Obama008:

@Terranus

We have 100 million people that voted in the last two election, this year we will have about 130 million.

130 million voters.

The population in Germany is 85 million with about 40 million that can vote. I would guess that only maybe 60% vote, so about 25 million vote, lets say.

that 75% less then 2000 or 2004.

We have more people therefore longer lines.

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OneAngryDwarf:

Oops those must be the old numbers.

Stevens (R) 36 (46)
Begich (D) 58 (48)

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Charlie, Carrollton, TX:

I LOVE the polls at this point. But-----

We seemed to have gotten a good boost in the polls several weeks ago when Mr. O. started going after JC’s ERRACTIC and TEMPERMENTAL behavior. Obviously, JC lacks these very key leadership skills. Over the last several days in my area, including cable, scene after scene of JC ripping and questioning Mr. O’s leadership abilities seem to be dominating the campaign stump clips. I’m not seeing like-kind responses from OB in return. I hope this doesn’t take traction and make a difference with just a few days left.

HOPES are high for Mr. O---but I’ve had my heart broken too many times. STAY AFTER THEM UNTIL the POLLS CLOSE!

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Lechuguilla:

Hi Charlie in Carrollton. Ken here in Richardson (Tx).

Lots of yard signs in this Repub. area for mccain, but not nearly as many as for bush four years ago.

I've already voted. Was surprised at the long line at Richardson civic center.

lech

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Mike Farrace:

Gallup RV, Sun through Fri:

Obama : 51 52 50 51 50 52
McCain: 43 43 43 42 42 41

Gallup LV Expanded, Sun through Fri:

Obama : 51 50 51 51 51 52
McCain: 44 45 44 44 44 43

Gallup LV Traditional, Sun through Fri:

Obama : 50 50 49 49 50 51
McCain: 45 45 47 46 45 43

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DanishSpectator:

@Obama008:

"The population in Germany is 85 million with about 40 million that can vote. I would guess that only maybe 60% vote, so about 25 million vote, lets say.

that 75% less then 2000 or 2004.

We have more people therefore longer lines."

No. In 2005 77% voted in the parliamentary elections i Germany. That was around 47 million voters. I live in Denmark where 85% participation in elections is routine.

Pundits are talking about the possibility of a record turnout on nov4 of more than 64% of the eligible voters, breaking the record from 1964. But still it is a far cry from the regular turnout in most European countries.

And besides, it is the number of polling stations per 1000 voters that determines the length of the lines...

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