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US: Obama 52, McCain 43 (Gallup 10/23-25)

Topics: PHome

Gallup Poll
10/23-25/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National

2,794 Registered Voters
Obama 51, McCain 42
(10/22-24 Obama 51, McCain 42)

2,346 Likely Voters-Expanded
Obama 52, McCain 43
(10/22-24 Obama 51, McCain 43)

2,448 Likely Voters-Traditional
Obama 50, McCain 45
(10/22-24 Obama 51, McCain 44)

 

Comments
Kile Thomson:

McCain Surge Continues !!!

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mysticlaker:

Statistical.Tie.Praise Jesus. Praise Boomshak.

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Kile Thomson:

McCain Surge Continues.. !!!

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carl29:

Tie? :-) tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock!!!

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PJ_FFM:

Strange noise... Likely Expanded and Registered are both O+1, traditional is M+2...

Looks the first two are similar to Ras, whereas the latter is more Zogby-ish.

In other words: Either Zogby is sticking to an outdated model, or Rasmussen has been modernizing too much.

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Kile Thomson:

oops !

sorry for the double post

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dc:

So far another mixed day in the trackers, but overall Obama maintains a steady lead. It will be interesting to follow the differences between the polls that use traditional LV constructs and those that use expanded constructs.

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RussTC3:

Steady as she goes.

Daily National Tracking Poll Average, 10/26/2008 (Zogby, R2K, Rasmussen, Hotline and Gallup LV-Expanded: 10/25/2008 in parenthesis)

Obama 50.9 (51.3)
McCain 42.6 (42.6)

Obama +8.3% (+8.7%)

Had it not been for Zogby's predictable "let's get some attention!" release, Obama would be up a little more today.

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blakec:

Probably means that independents swung to Obama and Republicans swung to McCain. Which makes sense, since McCain is only talking to Republicans these days.

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The movement around the mean looks pretty random to me. The trend is flat, and with an O +8 that is great.

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davidsfr:

Georgia is yellow on the map! Mind blowing!

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Publius:

I have a polling question, and I ask for informational purposes since this is not my area of expertise.

Are more people self-identifying themselves as Democrats in 2008 polls, or are pollsters oversampling Democratic areas?

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thoughtful:

The polls are incredibly stable but point to 390+EVs.

Saw McCain on MTP I thought Brokaw was fairly poor. McCain did OK for his blinkered supporters, His Age is against him.

As for Meet after Russert, very sad, lost most of its incisiveness. I think they made a big mistake with the veteran Brokaw pro temp, does any body know the viewer number comparables with the other Sunday shows?

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Basil:

In case my fellow moonbats jumped from the previous thread, here it is again. Sorry Boom, it's too good a word to let you define it.

Across the night sky
A million moonbats flitter.
Silver wings of hope

Halloween moonbats anyone?

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truebljb1:

I realize that McCain is trailing, but it seems to me that the state polls are getting tighter. McCain can only advertise in the states that will matter. Obama is advertising in states that McCain will hold, but the margins will be tighter. Also, that the states McCain needs to wing are more favorable deomographically than the nation as a whole. If, and I mean if, polls start to tighten and the dialougue changes to a McCain comeback, I think he can win the elecotal college even if he falls short in the popular vote. As much as Obama is ahead, and I admit he is, he really can't get much higher than 50% in any state or national poll. I think it will be tight.

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BritishObserver:

I have been following this election from the UK and have found pollster.com a very helpful aid and tool. This has been quite an election to follow. I'm sure we can all agree it's been action packed. The British press have gone to town with the race in their newsprint!
Your posts have also been interesting to read. I have read some posts that argue the polls may be over-compensating the Democratic lead, especially state polls? Is there any truth in this?
Does anyone believe that McCain-Palin will pull a trick out of their sleeve in the last week?
I ask because I am interested and not to be antagonistic.
Thank you.

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laguna_b:

Incredulously, Bill Kristol of the Weekly Standard seems to defend and actually LIKE Palin. So this is where this neocon asshole who got us into Iraq plans to stake his camp with next. I remain astounded that anyone of any intellect would find Palin as anything other than immature, stupid AND ignorant.....certainly not anyone I would want carrying MY political philosophy and flag.

America is not served well by a one party rule. The republicans proved that for 8 years. If the moderates and thinking republicans do not regain control, the Democrats will not have any check on thier stupidity (all party have a stupid element that rises to the top when they are unchecked).

I think and hope Barack will be above that but not the Dem Congress. All that said, they are clearly the lessor evil......

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Basil:

@BO (nice initials)

I think most rational observers think that if there were a political trick to be played, it would have come sooner.

This doesn't rule out voter suppression in political swamps like Florida and Ohio.

Larger than normal early voting may make trickery harder, but unprincipled R's will try (and have tried) anything to win.

Then there's the Bradley effect, which may or may not exist.

The short answer is that it looks like an Obama Tsunami but D's aren't taking anything for granted.

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Thatcher:

As for over-sampling Democrats.

Each pollster creates their polling sample of what they think the populace make up is.

Rasmussen asks how people align themselves and based upon their responses, they update the %ages for the following week to use as that week's sample break downs.

Zogby uses the party breakdown from the 2004 General election party make up.

others use other computations ...

bottom line is, each pollster has their own guidelines. but none are "over sampling" ...

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BritishObserver:

Thank you Basil and Thatcher for your explanations.
By trick I don't necesarily mean 'dirty' trick. Instead I really meant a piece of information that they have deliberately withheld until the last week of the election for maximum effect.
Any thoughts?

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Kile Thomson:

BritishObserver

tricks are not working

its over

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Basil:

@BO

It would seem that the GOP (Goddamned Oligarchic Plutocrats) is in such disarray that they'd have trouble keeping a juicy secret this long.

Dirty tricks are the only ones the neocons know.

Karl Rove says he's "sad" about what's happening to the GOP. He can't be as sad as the US is because of what he and his ilk have done for the last eight hellish years.

There must be a better way. Obama?

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Thatcher:

As for the "tightening" ...

Look at the trend for the entire month of October for 2004. The Bush/Kerry race tightened - but that is because it was already trending that way. The challenging party was behind the incumbent party and was tightening.

Gore/Bush 2000 - (which Gore won the popular vote - but Bush won the electoral). Bush was trending all of October to tighten. The challenging party was behind the incumbent party and was tightening.

Same with Carter/Reagan 1980. Reagan was trending as tightening. the challenging party was behind the incumbent and it tightened and surpassed.

These are some of the examples everyone uses as their belief that "this race will tighten" ... however - notice the similarities.

The challenging party was the surging party - not the incumbent party. This year, it's the same thing - challenging party is surging. But a big difference between this year and the other years we are talking about is that the challenging party already had the lead going into October. So, this race will NOT tighten - but either flatten or continue to expand.

In *most* elections - the last minute undecideds that do end up voting - normally vote *AGAINST* the incumbent person/party.

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Publius:

Thatcher

Then why have some people posted that a poll that looks good for Obama has a Democratic bias or is using too large a percentage of Democrats in their samples?

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southern angler:

British Observer, here is your trick.........Obamacrimes.com

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Kile Thomson:

Obamacrimes.com

LOL

the BS site of the year

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Vokoban:

OMG

the SA again...

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Thatcher:

Publius:

"too large a percentage of Democrats (or Republicans" - a pollster makes these decisions based upon their experience/knowledge. We may not agree but their decision is based upon their previous returns. But if it is way outside conventional wisdom - then there is an obvious problem and that is when a pollster begins to lose credibility (Zogby, as an example).

"Democratic bias" .. this is MOSTLY, again, personal animosity towards a particular poll/pollster - mostly based upon personal opinion. However, some pollsters strictly work with democrats and some strictly with republicans - so intentionally or unintentionally - their polls can end up leaning one way or another. Usually those in the latter group are able to be vetted by looking at previous polling results in comparison to actual election results and you can mentally keep track of those leaners

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southern angler:

This lawsuit is now being filed in seven states, even the US Supreme Court.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOzFl-Gm_Kc


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laguna_b:

@southern Angler

You are such a silly scumbag.....dealing in lies and innuendos ....unable to deny the true of the last 8 years and unable recognize the damages....

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Obama008:

southern angler

Really, Really.. come on....

That makes the swift boat ads look nice.

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southern angler:

8 million more people have just heard Phil Bergs interview on Savage two days ago. Even Drudge and News Max picked it up. It's about to become a very big issue for Barry.

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Vokoban:

"Even Drudge and News Max picked it up. "

That was the best sentence today. No question!

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carl29:

southern angler,

Yesterday a judge from PA threw that lawsuit to the trash can, calling it crazy, period. The fact that you ask the Supreme Court for something doesn't mean that they will hear your case. The Supreme Court chooses what cases they will hear and what cases they will not hear. It is call "writ of certiorari."

I can tell you right now: The US Supreme Court will slam its door on whoever brings such crazy suit before the honorable Court.

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JCK:

Hahaha. SA thinks you can file a lawsuit in the US Supreme Court.

Good luck with that one.

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BritishObserver:

Thank you again Basil for your reply.

To Southern Angler: As I said in my original post I have been following these posts for some time. I have read the information on obamacrimes.com recently. In truth if some of the allegations made on the site are correct they concern me. I am a British person who had a huge respect and admiration for America and I recognise its vital role on the world stage. The US has in my opinion been on the right side of history countless times and has confronted the evils of this world when other nations have chosen to bury their heads in the sand. Some points and issues raised on obamacrimes.com (if true) pain me as I fear they could harm your place and position in the world. I digress, surely Southern Angler if these issues were real and present danger you they would have had a larger impact?

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Vokoban:

SA btw was the abbreviation for "Sturmabteilung". More details here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sturmabteilung

Great nick!

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joethedummer:

boom crap is avoiding the board today lol!

maybe he's out spreading the wealth?

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Basil:

@angler

You are one sick puppy.

BTW I highly recommend the book of the same name by Carl Hiaasen. Sick Puppy, not Angler (the book about Darth Cheney)...

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southern angler:

Phil will tell everything you need to know.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOzFl-Gm_Kc

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Viperlord:

The US Supreme Court is a state?

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Viperlord:

Let's just ignore that this whole thing has been disproved right?

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MNLatteLiberal:

@BO,
Here is a McCain trick that has a chance of working. McCain calls a press conference, produces a glass jar, proclaims the contents to be Palin's brain prosthesis, inserts said contents into Palin's head, and Palin starts making actual sense when she speaks. She then proceeds to campaign for Obama. No, wait. Under this scenario Obama also wins.

Like somebody quoted on this site about a week ago, there are four simple things McCain needs to do to win this election. Unfortunately, nobody knows what they are.

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carl29:

"The US Supreme Court is a state?"

The US Supreme Court is the end of the US legal system. It is the law of the land. For a case to be heard before the US Supreme Court, it's got to be a "mother-of-all-cases," very serious cases. People think that everyone can apply for a case before the Court, but that is NOT true. The justices decide what cases they want to hear and if yours is not chosen, tough luck my friend. You are now stuck with the verdict for the lower court. Very few attorneys have the previlige to get their cases before the Supreme Court. It is really an honor to be there.

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Basil:

@Vokoban

With their sheets and pointy hats, folks like SA fantasize about glorious Nazi exploits. I wonder if she would even deny it. Many have made KKK references about SA before, without significant protest.

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southern angler:

The impact is near.

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carl29:

southern angler,

I am a 2nd year law student at the University of Miami, Florida. I can tell you that applying for a "writ of certiorari" doesn't mean anything, just like filing up paperwork.

The US Supreme Court chooses what cases they want to hear and what cases they don't want to hear. My prediction? I am 100% sure of it, the Court will not hear the case. They will just say the lower court decision stands, period.

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Viperlord:

I was mocking him with that statement, it wasn't intended seriously. (I'm not one of the people who regards mocking as serious business)

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DTM:

Just by way of factual background, Pew and Gallup did surveys earlier this year that were specifically designed to measure partisan identification. Pew got 36% D, 27% R, 37% no party, and Gallup got 40% D, 26% R, and 34% neither.

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MNLatteLiberal:

guys and carl29,
do not try to REASON with a troll (southern angler). He studied EE @ Purdue. That is the only logical argument you will EVER get out of him. The rest of it is the same old talking point. Unlike boomshak, this specimen only has one ingredient in his bouillabaisse. Here is how you deal with the trolls:

hey, southern angler, please answer my question from yesterday, WHAT ARE YOU doing personally about this outrage? Are you or are you not going to march on Washington on the 5th? Inquiring minds want to know. Please make sure to post your answer in form of a question. TIA.

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southern angler:

I love my point hat.

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Vercingetorix:

"...points and issues raised on obamacrimes.com (if true..."

Even observing from Britain, it's obvious that the claims about Obama's citizenship are delusional and malicious.

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RussTC3:

I'm literally lmao over here. :)

Thanks so much for that video SA. lol

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Viperlord:

I just realized we've been sucked into arguing with not only a troll, but a racist, far right wing, delusional imbecile.

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southern angler:

Thanks for asking Latte. Just emailed Elizabeth Doles and Robin Hayes offices. Millions of others are doing the same.

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MNLatteLiberal:

holy ****, we are now bombing inside Syria.
dubya is reaching out a helpful hand to McCain.

Wonder if bin Laden moved....hmmm...

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tom brady:

Is there any empirical evidence to support the assertion that independents break against the incumbent party in the last week of a presidential election, or is that more wishful thinking?

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Chester:

@ British Observer,

you are astonishingly polite to the
Angler; as a Canadian I appreciate that but here are the facts... the Repubs have ALWAYS got some kind of fringe smear lawsuit on the way that will completly smash the Dem; but it's always ****!

As for America's standing in the world: the last time I was in London was the Dem Convention and I felt the electricity in the air. What do you think will happen to American reputation if Pal and Mac are elected? The American people will be laughing stocks of the globe for basically voting Bush back in! Here in Canada, all I hear is shock, absolute shock that BO isn't 20-25% up in the polls. The common consensus (though not mine), is that the only reason he's not up here is wide-spread racism.

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Thatcher:

about Obamacrimes.

If any of the allegations were true - the Bush Administration would have held press conferences showing evidence. And the DNC would have pulled Obama's nomination due to ineligibility to hold the office months ago.

Don't you think Bush wants to keep the White House in Republican's hands? Don't you think the DNC wants to retake the White House. Bush would want to discredit Obama and the DNC would want a legitimate candidate.

Neither have done this, ergo its all Bull****.

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Viperlord:

Ssssh. You'll tear a hole in the fabric of the Republican Party if you keep daring to use logic.

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Vokoban:

As a matter of fact it doesn't matter where he was born. He had an American mother. That's enough to qualify him for eligibility.

SA is a troll - and a stupid one.

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MNLatteLiberal:

southern angler:

Thanks for asking Latte. Just emailed Elizabeth Doles and Robin Hayes offices. Millions of others are doing the same.

Angler, if you think that's enough, you are delusional. Betsy is going down, she is ALREADY a de facto lame duck. You need to get off your computer and DO something.

If you do not want to march with me on Washington on the 5th, here are some other ideas I am giving to you pro bono (you can ask carl29 what that legalese term means in case they do not teach that as a part of the boilermaker ee curriculum):

1) Make up a sign and start marching up and down your street until the liberal main stream media can no longer ignore you.
2) Get a phone book and start dialing people to spread this message.
3) Don't even bother with a phone book. Just start pressing random numbers.
4) Don't even bother with a phone. Start screaming out the message as you walk around outside.
5) Don't even bother making the sign, that just wastes time. Go to #4.

Please get back to us with the results by Tuesday, Nov 4th. We ARE RUNNING OUT OF TIME!!!!

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Thatcher:

tom brady:

Here is a quick link that talks about undecideds and incumbent candidates ... but I've seen studies about party analysis with similar information.

http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

"... our analysis of 155 polls reveals that, in races that include an incumbent ... Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger."

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

I would like to see Bush's explanation for this Syria nonsense.

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MNLatteLiberal:

southern angler, please report your progress thus far.

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NashvilleLefty:

@SouthernAngler

By "millions," you mean, I assume, you and all your body lice.

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southern angler:

The electoral college doesn't vote until Jan. They could diqualify Obama by then. This is going to be a disaster, just sit back and watch.

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political_junki:

southern angler:
See a therapist. Millions of others are doing that too and it is doing them wonders.

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truebljb1:

The Tipp poll show McCain gaing .7 points. It is still a 4 point gap with rounders, but both Zogby and Tipp have shown the race tighting in the past week. Gallup traditional only 5. I think it is more important to look at trends of polls then the actual spreads because the all have different party weigting. I would really like to see Rasmussen tighting back up some. We shall see...

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BritishObserver:

I think that after viewing those videos on youtube that you recommended SA, I am not convinced. I am a politics graduate and am currently studying a law degree and my insticts tell me there's not much in those videos. Especially as it has already been dismissed by a judge. One must be very careful with 'conspiracy theories', and not get too carried away with issues that have no realistic chance of having any real effect.
Now, having asked if there are any other campaign tactics the Republicans are going to employ, there has been no realistic argument or evidence of one on its way. Not that any posters here would necesarily know.
Let's be frank. The polls are pointing to Obama, indeed quite considerably so in some states that up till last week were fairly safely republican (eg Virginia and Ohio).
Truly is there going to be a turn around in just over a week?

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Publius:

Chester:

We have a built-in 40-45% Republican base that will not allow for a 20-25% spread. If you look at past elections, the highest popular vote spread was 20%. Reagan won by 19% when he was wildly popular in 1984. A 6% win in the popular vote is big in the US.

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southern angler:

latte
Again thanks for trying to be so helpful. As for your pro bono offer, my brother in law has practiced here in Charlotte for over 30 years. I have all the help I need.

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MNLatteLiberal:

southern angler:

The electoral college doesn't vote until Jan. They could diqualify Obama by then. This is going to be a disaster, just sit back and watch.


angler, that is hardly a progress report.

The LAST thing we (by "we", I mean you) can afford is to sit by idly and watch. You can diqualify (btw, spelled with a "ck" and not a "q") all you want, but you need to ACT.

please report your progress along our 5 action items

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political_junki:

truebljb1:
We all should stop paying attention to national polls and just pay attention to early and swing state polls. In Sept it used to care about natl poll not now we 8 days left and already 1.2mil people voted in NC or 2 mil voted in FL

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carl29:

BritishObserver,

The only chance that McCain has it is what Bush is doing right now: Create an international crisis abroad to distract people from the economic crisis at home. Will it work? No idea...

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southern angler:

A Clinton appointed Judge

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shirefox:

@thoughtful

I agree Brokaw was and is a poor choice, but NBC didn't have anybody of Russert's caliber to stick in there, and they still don't. It's not obvious who they're grooming. They've always insisted that Brokaw is temporary.

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thoughtful:

I can't believe that anybody pays attention to S.A. or any of the other bitter trolls that visit this site.

State of play: Obama is heading to an historic landslide providing the Campaign gets out the vote.

Congressional and Senate races: The democratic Party is heading towards an historic victory and an outside chance of a filibuster proof Senate.

The Republican Party is disintergrating and appears to be the party of Bigots, Racists, Religious Zealots with the voices of reason and moderation driven out or sold out a la John McCain.

A sad but also a happy day for the USA

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MNLatteLiberal:

southern angler:

latte
Again thanks for trying to be so helpful.

de nada (as Rush would say, a little Spanish lingo for ya), el gusto es mio. That roughly means, think nothing of it, and do not waste your precious time on thanking me. Get to work instead!

As for your pro bono offer, my brother in law has practiced here in Charlotte for over 30 years.

What has he practiced? EE? Is he your fellow Purdue success story? Please elaborate. What's his name, age and most importantly, is he any good at making signs? How is his spelling? (you will see how this will become important over time) Did he get it right after all that practice? Your posts raise more questions, as you can see. And you DO NOT have all that time to answer, trust me on this. GET TO ACTION!

I have all the help I need.

I suspect there are many here who will respectfully disagree. And some even not so respectfully.

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Vokoban:

As for Syria,

I cannot imagine (in case this is more than just a minor incident in an all too bloody war) that America will vote for the same party who created the mess just because this party deliberately made this mess even bigger.

Then again: Bush has been re-elected...

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Boris_Dieter:

@THOUGHTFUL

I saw MTP. I don't like Brokaw either. However, today I thought McCain was hammered big time. That interview should be shown all over the country, and if McCain's numbers could slide more they would. He was pathetic, and the broadcasting of his prior comments on Bush tax cuts before he was "for them" were devastating. He seemed his usual ornery, cranky, dismissive self.

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Chester:

@ Publius,
Appreciated, which is why I don't chalk that up to racism. In Canada it's different. Individuals aren't usually officially affiliated with eithe party so we vote how we choose; which is why we're prone to great swings of the vote depending on who is in power. We also don't have a President; we vote for the local rep for a national party.

I'm not sure how I'd feel about widespread voter/ party affiliation. On one hand it provides a bit more stability, but what if the party goes to **** (as the Repubs have)? If a Canadian party had the approval ratings of the Repubs right now, they would be anniliated from the House of Commons (ie. the party would be wiped off the board and forced to either dramaticaly rebrand or to form a whole new party by consolidating with another right wing party).

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AtlantaBill:

"boom crap is avoiding the board today .."

Nah .. not so! rumor has it that the boomer is out carving the letters B-O onto his forehead
with the intent of claiming he was attacked by some big burly black woman from the Obama campaign. heard he had completed the job and then recognized that he had created a "mirror-image" like the gal in PA did. now he's out taking growth hormones in hopes that he heals fast and can try again before election day.

Poor boomer .. gosh darn he just can't win.

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MNLatteLiberal:

Brokaw could've pursued McCain further on his tax cutting flip flops as they pertain to calling Obama socialist. He let him off the hook too easy a couple of times. But he had the cojones to show 2004 and 2006 footage of the Maverick to the Maverick. And the Maverick fumbled and switched topics.

imho, none of this really matters any more. The base/leadership of GOP is now mad at McCain for not helping the down ticket more and giving up on too many states.

This is fun to watch, as I already commented to 1Angry earlier.

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thoughtful:

@shirefox

What was crazy about Brokaw was he did get his "gotccha" moment over McCain's previous support for a progressive tax system.

Tim Russert was a one off. But he came from Cuomo's office, so they could have gone outside NBC.

Anyway what was amazing was how McCain was talking Zogby polling, at times he sounded like boomshak, but you know the whole thing was on a false premise, prescription, just like McCain's so called maverick streak, more like gambler/crap shooter and reckless flyer.

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truebljb1:

The only reason the national polls matter is that is what the media reports and closing polls changes the dialougue of the race. I agree it is all about the states at this point, but it would help McCain to have a "resurgance"

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carl29:

AtlantaBill, That's hillarious :-)!!!!

I am really concerned about "boomy." It is not a secret that McCain's chances these days are not those of a clear winner which surely doesn't make boomy the happiest guy in town; however, boomy is not one of those who hide when things get tough. So, I wonder what happened to him. This leads me to believe that either a) things are worse than we thought or b) boomy is not feeling well for another reason. I hope it has nothing to do with his health... I mean, physical health because psychological we already know :-)

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laguna_b:

@southern angler

I am curious how you can be an EE student at Purdue and yet resident in Charlotte. Is this another case of scratching B on your face in a mirror? (backwards!)

BTW, I have an MSEE and find that you are tarnishing the reputation of EEs everywhere by your clownish behavior.

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Vokoban:

Nothing McCain has treid so far generated any traction. Mybe with the exception of Palin - and that backfired after an initial bump.

So there's no reason to believe anything else could generate enough traction to surge 1%/day until 11/4.

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Publius:

Chester:

"If a Canadian party had the approval ratings of the Repubs right now, they would be annihilated from the House of Commons (ie. the party would be wiped off the board and forced to either dramatically rebrand or to form a whole new party by consolidating with another right wing party)."

That did happen in the US in the 19th century with the demise of the Federalist and Whig parties. The Republicans were born out of those deaths and became the party of anti-slavery and abolition. The two party system has survived because both of them worked diligently to court the great waves of immigrants who came to the US between 1870 and 1920, and created political machines that shut out or subsumed ideas that might be the basis of another party. Third parties were usually regional or driven by smaller groups, like the Populists.

I think most Americans see a Parliamentary system as fractious and unworkable, but we also like the specifics of one party in the majority and one in the minority.

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MNLatteLiberal:

@truebljb1,
to me the national polls that have essentially unanimously (save for the debunked IBD/TIPP) shown a widening lead for Obama over the last week will be translating to a wider gap at the state level in the week leading to the elections. In the states with early voting THIS IS already translating into actual votes.

I suspect the national map on the 5th will be a lot bluer than pollster.com was over the last few days of the widening national polls.

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Vokoban:

http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/10/john_mccain_barack_obama_campa.html

"I choose to trust my senses as well as polls. And the enthusiasm at almost all of our campaign events is at a higher level that I've ever seen," McCain said. "I see intensity out there and I see passion."

Yet McCain's crowd of about 2,000 people inside the gymnasium at the university paled in comparison to the enormous gathering in a Denver park today for Obama. Estimates for Obama's crowd exceeded 100,000 people, according to city officials.

It's official: McCain's campaign is in great shape!

____________________

AtlantaBill:

I see McCain is in IA today. can anyone provide any insight as to what strategic objective McCain is pursuing by campaigning in PA and now IA. Judging from the polls, neither is in play so i wonder just what there internals are telling them. Sarah P on the other hand is in FL which seems to make a bit more sense.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

ALL OF YOU:

Do not waste time with nutcase GOP and conservative dung fleas over issues like whether or not Obama qualifies as a presidential candidate. It's about as dumb as the effort to disqualify McCain for not having been born on U.S. soil. The delusional right wing are already conjuring up their fantasy world to explain why they're losing and they are embracing their darling Pig with Lipstick Palin as their new right-wing darl'n. How bankrupt they are. Democrats are viewed as evil, un-American, baby-killing, Christ-killing, socialist-celebrating, income redistributing, job-killing traitors. Never mind that the simple, indisputable empirical fact is that our nation's wealth, equality, and median family income have grown more rapidly under Democrats than under Republicans. Period. Fact. Reality. That doesn't matter, however, to our faith-based children of the right, who are busy bouncing between their paranoid hallucinations and being overcome by some paroxysm of The Rapture. Hopefully level-headed Republicans will join Democrats,since the GOP is no longer a place for clear, reality-based thinking.

____________________

Cho:

TIPP shows Obama +3.2 today.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

laguna_b:

"@southern angler
BTW, I have an MSEE and find that you are tarnishing the reputation of EEs everywhere by your clownish behavior."

I can feel the collective shudder of the real Purdue alums out there. To be fair, laguna, SA never said he GRADUATED from Purdue. He said he studied EE at Purdue. I think my Palin study analogy was apt: she too had studied at many a fine (and not so fine) institution of higher learning. Just not LEARNED.

Quick, let's give him a Maxwell equation to solve. LOL. Actually no, let's leave him alone for now; he's got a heavy agenda for a difficult week ahead.

____________________

laguna_b:

Today, on the anniversary of Mccain being shot down over VN, ending his long streak of destruction of American aircraft, he is once again being shot down over the USA, this time the universal destruction (of the Republican Party) will continue even after being shot down! Fortunately he will be housed in luxury at the Phoenix Hilton or any of his 7 to 20 homes....

____________________

thoughtful:

@British Observer

The proposition is there anyway McCain come back.

I dont think so, to be brief:

Too many bad judgement actions Palin, The "Economy is sound" pronouncement.

Then there is age.

There are far more ageist than racist in the USA. The difference is that very few are clost ageist thus depending on which poll between 30% and 45% of American's polled say McCain is too old. That is a handicap that he can't overcome. He doesn't have the Churchill about him who was a genuine maverick, as you know as Brit, and he doesn't have the wisdom of Mandela, or the charm of Reagan.

They haven't even attempted to put lipstick on that pig!

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

TIPP shows both McCain and Obama gaining about a point respectively.

____________________

Chester:

@ Publius,
The Canadian parliementary system, unless 1 party holds clear power, tends to be stagnant and full of useless bickering (as it is now). The Europeans are much better at cooperating via coalitions... we suck at that!

Whenever Canada has made great strides forward, it has always been under the watch of a strong leader, a Trudeau or a Pearson. Need less to say, not much has happened lately. Our leadership now is pathetic.... more people pay attention to American politics than our own because our own is so depressing.

We crave a man like Obama who would re-define Canada's role in the world. Never underestimate how luckly you are that he has come around, because leaders like him don't come around often. He will inspire a whole generation to become active in public service who otherwise would have remained jaded and disillusioned. Someone like Obama comes around once in a generation, which is why when I hear people smear him I want to pull out my hair. You're lucky to have him; I wish we did!

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@Boris_Dieter,
Yeah, but that doesn't mean we can't have a little fun with them after working so hard for all these months. Think of it as practice celebration for the night of the 4th.

____________________

carl29:

AtlantaBill,

What strategy are they pursuing? In PA the "Guliani strategy," bank the farm in one state and hope for the best. In addition of "ethnic" voters.

In Iowa? The evangelical vote with Palin. Do you remember who won the IA caucus for the Republican primary? Huckabee. First of all, IA is a state with virtually no minorities, Hispanics or AA's. Around 52% of Iowans are Protestant, white Protestant that is. Iowa is also a pretty rural state. So, it is a better fight that a state like New Mexico for example.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

As for the polls:

The bottom lines for the national and state polls are absolutely clear. If the election were held today, Obama and the Dems would have a massive victory. The only question is whether this can close sufficiently for McCain in some combination of states that would provide an EV victory. Anything is possible and considering this Supreme Court and the ruthlessness of the GOP in vote suppression, I am not celebrating until a favorable outcome is certified. I am a Cub fan as well, and so until it's over, it ain't over.

____________________

laguna_b:

"Sarah P on the other hand is in FL which seems to make a bit more sense."

With here negatives growing I think that SHE should have been sent ot Ia and McC to Fl.

"They haven't even attempted to put lipstick on that pig!" - actually they spent $22k to do that

____________________

thoughtful:

Latest polls as copied from RCP.

Iowa NBC/Mason-Dixon Obama 51, McCain 40 Obama +11
Iowa Quad City-Times/R2000 Obama 54, McCain 39 Obama +15

What is McCain doing in Iowa?

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@MNLatteLiberal

You have a much healthier disposition than I. As a fairly conservative guy (on a lot of stuff), I can tell you that the Democrats are far more in line with conservative doctrine (today) than are the majority of the GOP's members (today). I am just stunned at the insanity, racism, hatred, religious zealotry, and even ancient Cold War rhetoric that dominates the GOP today. Anyone who believes in logic, reason, and evidence in the classic scientific sense of those terms cannot feel anything but horror with what prevails in the GOP. I've just lost any sense of humor or equanimity with those nutcases.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

Drudge has switched his Syria text link from red to black. Crisis averted?

____________________

Vokoban:

thoughtful
"What is McCain doing in Iowa?"

They figured McCain is polling better where he's NOT campaigning. That's why he's not to be seen in states he REALLY needs.

____________________

laguna_b:

@thoughtful
"What is McCain doing in Iowa?"

Trying to avoid association with BOTH Palin and Bush. He is a maverick ya know....

____________________

thoughtful:

@Carl29,

I missed your comparables have you stopped doing them?

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@MNLatteLiberal

You have a much healthier disposition than I. As a fairly conservative guy (on a lot of stuff), I can tell you that the Democrats are far more in line with conservative doctrine (today) than are the majority of the GOP's members (today). I am just stunned at the insanity, racism, hatred, religious zealotry, and even ancient Cold War rhetoric that dominates the GOP today. Anyone who believes in logic, reason, and evidence in the classic scientific sense of those terms cannot feel anything but horror with what prevails in the GOP. I've just lost any sense of humor or equanimity with those nutcases.

____________________

Vokoban:

Boris_Dieter

100% ack.

True conservatives are deeply rooted in reason and decency.
Try to find this in the GOP!

____________________

carl29:

thoughtful,

what are they doing in Iowa?

"The evangelical vote with Palin. Do you remember who won the IA caucus for the Republican primary? Huckabee. First of all, IA is a state with virtually no minorities, Hispanics or AA's. Around 52% of Iowans are Protestant, white Protestant that is. Iowa is also a pretty rural state. So, it is a better fight that a state like New Mexico for example, which is another Bush state where Obama is also leading."

I love when I hear the McCain people saying that "their internals are showing X or Y." Guys, it is plain logic. Iowa is a rural, evangelical, overwhelmingly white state. They are betting on energizing those "Bush voters" to come out for them, period. They think that the reason McCain is way behind is because he skipped the Iowa caucauses and therefore didn't campaign in the state. The McCain campaign thinks that once McCain/Palin give "some love" to the state, polls will start to move. See?

____________________

RussTC3:

Hey look, according to IBD/TIPP, Obama has cut McCain's lead among...wait for it...adults 18-24 down to 11 points! LOL

What a screwy, screwy poll.

Adjust just that demo to where it actually is (for instance 53/42 in favor of Obama instead of the reverse), and Obama is up by in the poll by at least 2 points more.

____________________

katocat:

Wow, McCain is only up 4 in Arizona... Now this:

Obama for president
Anchorage Daily News
http://www.adn.com/opinion/story/567867.html

____________________

laguna_b:

Obama has shown that running a clean campaign, on the issues, can actually beat negative junk campaigns....I mean this guy had ME the first time I saw him speak.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@Vokoban:

I agree with you. You read a bit too quickly, as I do sometimes.

____________________

Pat:

@AtlantaBill:

"I see McCain is in IA today. can anyone provide any insight as to what strategic objective McCain is pursuing by campaigning in PA and now IA. Judging from the polls, neither is in play so i wonder just what there internals are telling them"

There was an article yesterday from Telegraph that hinted at McCain's strategy these last few days:

RNC has urged him to forget about his own chances and just help down tickets. This could be the reason for his visit to New Mexico yesterday. We all know he does not have any chance there.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

A QUESTION FOR EVERYONE:

Although pollsters weight their respondents according to a variety of criteria, it seems one criterion that is really critical is whether or not an individual finds that the economy is the most critical issue. Among those, an overwhelming proportion, including GOP respondents, are bailing from the Palin/McCain ticket. That is why it is possible that the election results, if the stock market and economic news continue to be gloomy, will be historically catastrophic for the GOP. In short, the polls might indeed be underestimating how much realignment this election will produce, particularly if the Dems actually do a decent job running the joint. And who knows if that happens, since the Dems have a crazy element in the party too.

____________________

laguna_b:

TELLING......THE RCP Fav/Unfav graph for McCain tells it all. His favs sometimes spike but then drop, hid unfavs grow upward to the right with little deviation. If they continue like this he may approach Bush after all!

____________________

thoughtful:

@Carl29

Yes I caught your post first time round. Then McCain/Palin have to be committing a pile of money in CO, WI, MN advertising and appearance (I haven't looked at their Schedule) next week as well as IA and PA, also defend FL and OH. There some other ground looks hopeless.

The ethanol thing prevents IA going to McCain.

This election though could still tighten a great deal.

____________________

laguna_b:

@thoughtful
>>This election though could still tighten a great deal.

I find this unlikely. The scenarios of tightening historically have not had factors like:
1) - Fishwife VP candidate going nuclear on the main campaign.
2) - Complete meltdown of the entire planetay financial system due to policies supported by the candidate.
3) - Complete incompetence of the campaign staff, predictably and continuously
4) - Major influencial deffections of advsors and people like Colin Powell
5) - Virtually no message except carping

I ma carefully optimistic that in fact the lead will expand....AND voter supression of the republican vote from depression.

____________________

carl29:

thoughtful here is my "comparison analysis" from the last three Sundays, so you can see the trend:

Sunday, October 26, 2008

AVERAGE: Obama 50.7% McCain 44%
Obama +1.3, McCain -1 from the previous Sunday.

Rasmussen, Obama 52 McCain 44
Zogby, Obama 49 McCain 44
Gallup*, Obama 50 McCain 45
Gallup**, Obama 52 McCain 43


Sunday, October 19, 2008

AVERAGE: Obama 49.4% McCain 45%
Obama -0.8%, McCain +0.3% from the previous.

Rasmussen, Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 47.8 McCain 45.1
Gallup*, Obama 49 McCain 46
Gallup**, Obama 51 McCain 44

Sunday October 12, 2008

AVERAGE: Obama 50.2 McCain 44.7

Rasmussen, Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby, Obama 48.9 McCain 42.8
Gallup*, Obama 50 McCain 46
Gallup**, Obama 51 McCain 45

____________________

carl29:

thoughtful,

I totally agree with you that McCain's got no chances in IA. First, you can't make up such ground in less than 10 days, in addition to him denouncing ethanol subsidies at each turn. Doesn't he know that ethanol is a big deal in a state like IA?

I think they are just trying to see if they can save one of those Bush state that Obama seemed to have captured. See that I said "trying." They also want to look like they are on the "offense," trying to take away one of those Obama-friendly states :-)

____________________

laguna_b:

@thoughtful

Today the issue that is going to BREAK THIS THING WIDE OPEN FOR MCCAIN is Palin and Mccain are on message that Obama is taking a pre-mature victory lap....clearly they don't see the clock running out and have YET to make a positive point with the public....why waste a slow news day with this???

That is why THIS year will be differrent and tightening will only be the noose...

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@lagunab

You say it exactly as my head calculates it. It's my stomach and my nerves that are on edge. There is so much as stake, so no matter how good the hand is, one simply can't help but feel nervous.

____________________

laguna_b:

Ok, I am going out on the limb on this but barring some major event, RCP average will have BO +8.5 at least sometime on Wednesday....

____________________

thoughtful:

@carl29

Thank you, there are trend lines and then there is:

Completely stable poll averages for 3 weeks.

Amazing, when you look at it!

I think everybody has just about made up their minds. Though I expect not a tightening but a widening.

And Florida?

____________________

laguna_b:

@Boris_dieter
"You say it exactly as my head calculates it. It's my stomach and my nerves that are on edge. "

I am with you 100%!!!!!!!!!

____________________

jonny87:

@carl29

i thought you said a lot of democrats were voting in florida, but theres still only a 4 point affiliation gap in early voting. :-|

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

turnout still strong in your area?

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

Boris_Dieter:

@MNLatteLiberal
"You have a much healthier disposition than I."

All I know is that my wife told me that I can play with the trolls as soon as I finish the "honeydo" list for our election party. So every time I finish a project, I feel perfectly vindicated in toying with the trolls.

If you notice, that is one of the very few things that makes them go away. Ya gotta outtroll the troll, otherwise the infestation becomes simply intolerable.


"As a fairly conservative guy (on a lot of stuff), I can tell you that the Democrats are far more in line with conservative doctrine (today) than are the majority of the GOP's members (today)."

You are preaching to the choir here, Boris. I voted for Reagan the first time around. I, like many here, am socially radical left liberal and fiscally as conservative as Clinton probably. I just happen to believe in education and realistic medical care. But we digress.

[...]

"I've just lost any sense of humor or equanimity with those nutcases"

My sense of humor is all I have left in the arsenal of dealing with the right wingnuts. IMHO that's what sets us apart from the animals that they are. :)

____________________

carl29:

jonny87,

Early voting starts with absentee ballots, which is the most realiable source of Republican votes in the state of Florida. More than 1.6M absentee ballots had been given sent in Florida before early voting started on Monday. Want to know the party breakdown of those absentee ballots? 48% Rep. and 36% Democrats. As you can see we Democrats started from behind in state; however, by Thursday we already had the edge in the state. So, just early voting has been more on the Democratic side than the Republican side in the state of Florida.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@carl29, TY and buenos tardes.
yo tenia que escuchar eso (tuyo, arriba). muchos.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@MNLatteLiberal

Thanks! I needed that.

____________________

laguna_b:

@carl29

Republicans typically are very reliable voters and absentee voters at that....as you verify. I voted by mail (but dropped it off at the courthouse to be sure) and fit that model...as I too am a life long registered Republican. But as you may have detected, voted 100% Obama and Democrat...have since 1988. (regret my two stupid votes for RR)

____________________

carl29:

Here are the stats in the state so far:

FLORIDA:
(in-person & absentee returned) 1,983,234 Party
Dem 44.3%
Rep 40.5%
No/Oth 15.2%

Ballot
Absentee 50.9%
In-person 49.1%
=======================================

Oct. 20, 2008,

"In Florida, a perennial battleground, voters had requested more than 1.6 million absentee ballots, with registered Republicans requesting about 220,000 more ballots than Democrats, according to numbers compiled by both political parties."
================================

In the state of Florida the absentee ballots always benefit the Republicans. So, we had to level off the field with our early votes and now we have taken the lead. Early voting ends on Nov. 2 :-)

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

sorry, i think that should have been "yo tuvo que escuchar...". in any case, i DID need to hear that. The FL early numbers were troubling me a bit. Same with OH, afair. The rest of the early birds promise an early spring :)

____________________

jonny87:

@carl29

i just checked the waiting times for miami area...still very long. like you say those voting in person are favouring obama so once early voting is over hopefully the margin will have increased a little. the way its going early voting in florida looks on course to be 45%ish of 2004 total, what kind of early voting turnout are they predicting at the moment?

____________________

carl29:

I don't vote absentee because I am afraid that these Republicans in charge of the votes in Miami will throw my ballot in the trash can. I rather wait in line :-)

*When I went to vote on Monday, there was this sweet lady with her "Hillary women for Obama" button and we were talking about this same issue. Keep in mind that it took us 3 hours in line to cast our ballot. She also doesn't believe that Republicans in charge of elections in Dade county will count her ballot if they know she is a Democrat.

____________________

carl29:

jonny87,

I don't know about what they are predicting in Dade county. Keep in mind that these people are Republican, so of course they don't want to report anything that will energize Democrats even more. I can tell you for a fact that Democrats in this region are "fired up and ready to vote" :-)

____________________

thoughtful:

The Polls were stable through to the Conventions, then you had the bounces.

McCain/Palin got called out as Liars.

McCain then pronounced the economy to be strong, 4 hours later in Crisis (STG).

Then so serious was the economic situation suspend the campaign.

The rest has been attrition Palin attrition. McCain's senior moments,

The debates in between. Climaxed with Joe the tax delinquent plumber who turned out not to be even a qualified plumber that McCain has based seemingly his economic policy round because Joe the Plumber approves it!

____________________

laguna_b:

@carl29

I am astounded that there are still 3 hour waits to vote. I could see long lines the first day and the last day...but this is truley encouraging.

I live in Santa Cruz County and all our votes are tallied by hippies so my absentee ballot is safe...unless they are too stoned to count.

____________________

jonny87:

...or perhaps over 50% of 04 turnout thinking about it.

____________________

jonny87:

early voting looking great for nevada and nc

____________________

carl29:

laguna_b,

Good for you that your vote is "safe." Here in Miami, it is so "weird" that candidate X wins at the polling places but candidate Y crosses the finish line because of the absentee ballots. I always tell my husband, I am so scared of those "miraculous" ballots. If Obama is going to carry the state, Democrats need to show up at the polling places in huge numbers, so we can off-set the absentee ballots.

____________________

jonny87:

anyone got a feel for how indies are voting in florida?

____________________

laguna_b:

@carl29

Amazingly, Republicans who are EXCELLENT at maintaining power (incompetent at governing) are completely screwing up this election. My hope is that thier universal incompetence will include fraud as well this year......

____________________

Mike In Maryland:

MNLatteLiberal.

Damn it! Look at the state maps, add up the EC votes of those states that are colored dark blue, and you will see that Obama has 268 EC votes. The dark blue states are 'Kerry' states, minus New Hampshire's 4, but add Virginia's 13 and Iowa's 7. This means that Obama needs 2 more EC votes, or just one state of ANY size.

Do you think any of the dark blue states will go for McLameBrain?

Now look at all the light blue states and all the yellow states.

Do you think that McLameBrain will sweep EVERY state that is not dark blue? Especially since Pollster.com shows Obama leading in North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Florida and Nevada (76 EC votes), just in the 'yellow' states? Not to mention the states that are light blue (New Hampshire, Ohio, New Mexico and Colorado, total of 38 EC votes).

Honestly???

That does NOT mean we can just sit back and not vote, but we are IN THE LEAD, and it would take a minor miracle (at a MINIMUM) for McLameBrain to be President-elect.

____________________

carl29:

jonny87,

According to the most recent Mason-Dixon: Obama has a 47%-41% lead among independent voters.

*Keep in mind that Mason-Dixon had McCain up by 1%, 46% vs. 45%.

____________________

jonny87:

obama and bill should be good for rallying the troops on wednesday

____________________

carl29:

jonny87,

Oh yeah...I think that it is going to put fuel to the fire :-)

____________________

shirefox:

@Boris_Dieter

Well put, Boris. And those who fan the flames are just as culpable as those who say the despicable words.

____________________

Publius:

Chester:

I think Obama will do a great job if elected. It will be nice to have a real, intelligent person as president.

____________________

TheLioness:

@BritishObserver:

"By trick I don't necesarily mean 'dirty' trick. Instead I really meant a piece of information that they have deliberately withheld until the last week of the election for maximum effect.
Any thoughts?"

They have nothing. In fact, the rats are diving off this sinking ship as fast as they can. McCain's staff is complaining that Palin has gone "off message" and is costing him the election; Palin's poeople are bitching that McCain's people have totally mishandled her. Everyone's pretty certain Palin's just towing the line at this point, barely, because she has some insane idea that she's a viable candidate next time around.

McCain's staff is leaking bad information about their own campaign (a la alerting about Palin's $150,000 spending spree)at such an astonishing rate that it's been described by some news sites as "incontinence"...the kind requiring adult diapers. It's a sure sign that a campaign is in desperate disarray and no longer has faith it its own candidate when they all begin feeding on one another.

Trick? George Bush could do something dangerous and outrageous in Iran or Iraq that would terrorize the soccer moms of this nation into voting for the man they see as more hawkish, McCain. Certainly worked for GeeDubya last time around.

Personally? I do not believe Obama canb lose this election without dirty tricks from the GOP.

____________________



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