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US: Obama 52, McCain 44 (Gallup-10/12-14)

Gallup Poll
10/12-14/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National

Registered Voters (2,785 RV, 2%):
Obama 50, McCain 43

**Likely Voters-Expanded** (2,319 LV, 2%):
Obama 52, McCain 44

Likely Voters-Traditional (2,160 LV, 2%):
Obama 49, McCain 46

By Eric Dienstfrey on October 15, 2008 1:31 PM |

 

Comments
JoelR:

Oh no, McCain is surging! Statistical tie by Nov 15!

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BOOMFAIL:

@JoelR
LMAO!

I'm most interested in how the polls will look next week, but don't expect anything other than the same or larger lead for Obama then. His poll numbers always go up after the debates.

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OGLiberal:

Obama always underperforms in Gallup in their Tues-Thurs numbers. Not sure why but it's been pretty consistent. Wednesday is usually his worst day.

I expect a definite tightening at the national level - no way Obama is up by double digits or even high single digits. As an Obama supporters, the numbers that really make me feel good are the growing number of states in which he is polling at 50 or better. And these include toss-up states like Colorado, Virginia, and Florida.

I also like the stability in the Rasmussen numbers. We're now at 20+ days in Rasmussen daily polling where Obama has stood between 50-52 and McCain has stood at 44-45.

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Bjorn Tipling:

@ JoelR election day is Nov 4th. Maybe that was part of the joke. :o

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boomshak:

Likely Voters-Traditional (2,160 LV, 2%):
Obama 49, McCain 46

Wow. I have to admit, even I find this somewhat surprising. To go from +6 to +3 in one day in tracking poll? Did McCain actually poll TIED or AHEAD of Obama amongst likely voters last night?

THE AMUSING PART:
Gallup really seems to want to appear right this year. He is giving us 3 numbers RV's, LV(old), LV's(new). He is really covering the waterfront. No matter what happens he can say he was right, lol.

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Nhoj:

obama seems to lead in all even with margin of error.

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Timdicator:

I predict that one of the candidates will win by in between 0.1% and 10%

I can be Gallup?

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JoelR:

@Bjorn

Yep, part of the joke!

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Observer:

The Obama lead on the 7 trackers out today give:

IBD..................+3 (O +1)
Gallop Trad ....+3 (M +3)
Zogby..............+4 (M +2)
Ras...................+5 (n/c)
Hotline.............+8 (O +2)
Batt..................+8 (M +5)
Kos..................+11 (n/c)

A small overall improvement for McCain. He certainly seems to have had a good day yesterday on Gallop. GWU/Battleground continue to be all over the place. Overall 3 - 8 with one outlier? Average lead now say 5%? The good days for McCain in Gallop, Battleground and Zogby will stay in the figures over the next couple of days so maybe as a McCain supporter I can hope for a further tightening by the end of the week.

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bpd1069:

@boomshak

You are truly sad. I pity you.

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carl29:

"RNC out of Wisconsin, Maine; focuses on red states"

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Republican National Committee is halting presidential ads in Wisconsin and Maine, turning its attention primarily to usually Republican states where GOP nominee John McCain shows signs of faltering.

The party's independent ad operation is doubling its budget to about $10 million and focusing on crucial states such as Colorado, Missouri, Indiana and Virginia where Democrat Barack Obama has established a foothold, according a Republican strategist familiar with presidential ad placements.

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s.b.:

Not only does the gallup polling method that's been used quite accurately for 50 years have Obama up by only 3%, the Rasmussen internals show that without leaners, Obama is only up by 2%, a siginficant softening of Obama's vote over the past week. McCain also made serious gains suggesting a very good night last night in Zogby and Battleground polls. Could be just a one day blip, but we will see.

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boomshak:

@bpd1069:
@boomshak

You are truly sad. I pity you.

Why? I'm rich, good looking and chicks dig me.

____________________

Pat:

@boomshak,

You are kind of silly to push the narrative that the polls are tighter today. It actually hurts McCain. Here is why:

The worst thing for MsCain would be if these polls show a tighter race today and widening gap after the debate. Particularly Gallup which is often quoted by the MSM. McCain will lose the after-debate spin game.

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s.b.:

Yeah and Gallup needs a kick in the backside, why don't they come up with a few other samping methods with some more wildly different results. They should stick with their 50 year model used in every other election after the first debate. I have lost a lot of respect for the organisation. It's total garbage to put out three sets of numbers.

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Pazienza:

Call it cherry picking, but something is happening. Three of the most respected daily tracking polls are showing very interesting data today:

Zogby: Obama 48.2 McCain 44.4

Gallup Traditional: Obama 49 McCain 46

Rasmussen: Obama 50 McCain 45

Rasmussen (definite) Obama 42 McCain 40

For McCain, the encouraging news comes from core supporters—those who are certain how they will vote and that they will not change their mind. Just 42% are certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain. That two-point gap is much closer than the overall numbers. It’s also much closer than the 45% to 38% advantage among core supporters enjoyed by Obama heading into the second Presidential Debate last week.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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carl29:

This is the comparison analysis:

Using just Ras', Gallup, Zogby

TODAY:

Rasmussen Obama 50 McCain 45
Zogby Obama 48 McCain 44
Gallup* Obama 50 McCain 43

Average: Obama 49.3 McCain 44

LAST WEEK: Wednesday 10/08

Rasmussen Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby Obama 47.1 McCain 45.2
Gallup* Obama 50 McCain 43

Average: Obama 49.3 McCain 44.4

Here we have the weekly update, my friends :-)
===============================================
The Five "serious" tracking polls:

Today, 10/15

Rasmussen Obama 50 McCain 45 Obama +5
Zogby Obama 48 McCain 44
Hotline Obama 49 McCain 41
Battleground Obama 51 McCain 43
Gallup* Obama 50 McCain 43


Average: Obama 49.6 McCain 43.2

A WEEK AGO:

Wednesday 10/08

Rasmussen Obama 51 McCain 45
Zogby Obama 47.1 McCain 45.2
Hotline Obama 45 McCain 44
Battleground Obama 49 McCain 45
Gallup* Obama 52 McCain 41

Average: Obama 48.8 McCain 44

*REGISTERED VOTERS because a week ago Gallup did NOT have Likely voters.

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zen:


it's good that tonight there is debate....
whenever the race is little bit tightening, there is debate, and the gap is widening again...
So good timing!

That's why Obama bought 30 minutes prime time in major networks on 29th of NOV.
whenever people see him with their own eyes, they forget Maccain's negative attack on Obama and revive their trust in him.

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RussTC3:

Focus on the polls folks.

They are what's important.

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Pacific moderate:

boomshak: I'm rich, good looking and chicks dig me.

Can't vouch for the first two, but as for the third, well, let's just say that you sound like someone who hasn't seen a breast since he was two years old...

____________________

NW Patrick:

Im still waiting for someone on the right to show me McCain's ELECTORAL path? How can he win? Show me, with facts, and #'s, polls, you know... this is pollster.com

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DecaturMark:

VA just went light blue

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NW Patrick:

So McCain polls within 3 with ZERO new voters in an average election year! LOL WOOP! WOOP!

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boomshak:

The point is, Obama should be running away with it, but it seems he is fading to the finish, just like in the primaries.

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carl29:

Pazienza,

First, be careful with Ras' extra-analysis because he is a REPUBLICAN. My advise will be to pay attention to the cold numbers. Second, I would suggest to you to pay attention to the trend for a period of time rather than day-by-day. If you want, as I do, you can make a "comparison analysis" by week, but I think it could work in a 3-day period.

Do you want to see Rasmussen's numbers in 2000:

Rasmussen 11/4-11/6 Bush 48.9 Gore 39.8 :-)

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slegend:

You have to look at the state by state polls to determine the race over the next two weeks. McCain would have to win all the Bush states and that is not going to happen. McCain will not win Iowa, New Mexico, or Colorado. That means the next President would be Obama.

The tracking polls will tighten to near dead heat by election, within the margin of error. In the end, the electoral map shows Obama almost a 100% chance of victory.

I do enjoy the back and forth debate, and I hope both Dems and Reps keep the comments flowing over the next two weeks.

____________________

carl29:

boomshak,

Gallup and Rasmussen have shown Obama constantly at the 50% watermark. When was the las time McCain was there and for how long? Please :-)

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alankeyesisawesome:

What great numbers with the traditional poll...America is finally realizing the effect that Obama's negative attacks on McCain and Palin + her family is having and Obama's numbers are in a freefall. Not to mention Americans don't approve of Obama's support of gay marriage, which has been a hot-button topic in this election cycle.

McCain has been prepping hard for the debate tonight, and you can expect to see all polls tied by Sunday.

____________________

NorseSoccer:

@boomshak

And yes, Obama still won. Hmmm.

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maddiekat:

Oh Joy another troll has joined us..

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raisethewhiteflag:

everyone is talking about bill ayers , watch mccain get b*tch slapped in return with the keating 5 tonight.Obama already has shown he is not afraid to get into the keating 5 as shown on his website!

____________________

orange24:

Keep touting those cherry-picked national polls. Pay no attention to that pesky Electoral Map. As long as you can get within 2 or three points in the popular vote, you win, right. Like slegend said, McCain has no shot at any of the Kerry states. Now add Iowa and New Mexico, and Obama starts from 264. Now, the battleground states become NV, CO, MO, FL, NC, VA, WV, OH, ND, MT, and GA. All Obama has to do is win ONE state - ONE STATE - and it's over. But you keep hanging on those cherry-picked polls that make you look good. It's all you have left.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@maddiekat

Typical double standard...Why is it when liberals post their opinion it is an analysis, and when conservatives have an intelligent post, it's called trolling.

Anyway, it's been scientifically proven that conservatives have higher IQs than liberals...however, a scientific study is sort of redundant because any layman should be able to tell you this.

____________________

boomshak:

I personally think Obama's "Let's spread the wealth around" comment was toxic. If McCain is smart, he will bring that up.

He should say, "If you want to know what 4 years under Obama will be like, just ask plumber ____ ________. When he was concerned about Obama raising his taxes, Obama said 'when we spread the wealth around, everyone benefits'".

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@orange24

Not true, McCain has a real shot at taking all of those states after he exposes Obama's links to Ayers and ACORN tonight. I smell victory for McCain.

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raisethewhiteflag:

alankeyesisawesome:
@orange24

Not true, McCain has a real shot at taking all of those states after he exposes Obama's links to Ayers and ACORN tonight. I smell victory for McCain.


KEATING 5 BITCHSLAP TONIGHT HAHAHHA , HAVE FUN WATCHING!

____________________

boomshak:

@maddiekat:

No, actually this is now a conservative blog. You are the troll, troll.

____________________

Vin4Obama:

@BoomNUT_CASE
@Alankeyesisawesome
You guys, just so you know, the voting is going on..
Thought you should know that Obama is ahead by 24% *average* in NM, OH, IA, NC..
And about 12-14% voters have already voted ..

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Yeah, but McCain will get 100% of the vote in NC, OH, VA, FL
He needs to win ALL of the 11 battleground states.. ALL..

I get it. I do get the picture..

____________________

Incumbent:

alankeyes is actually a very funny satirist of Republican nonsense...just sit back and have a laugh

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RussTC3:

A Look at Rasmussen 2004 vs. 2008.

Average of 3-day tracking polls over a one week period:

October 9-15 (October 7-13)
Obama 50.4 (47.6)
McCain 45.0 (49.6)
Obama +5.4 vs. Bush +2.0

Final 2004 election result was Bush +2.4%. Obama is out performing Kerry by 2.8 points, while McCain is under performing Bush by 4.6 points.

There are more people voting for 3rd parties and undecided this year than in 2004 (4.6% vs. 2.8%).

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raisethewhiteflag:

boomshak:
I personally think Obama's "Let's spread the wealth around" comment was toxic. If McCain is smart, he will bring that up.

He should say, "If you want to know what 4 years under Obama will be like, just ask plumber ____ ________. When he was concerned about Obama raising his taxes, Obama said 'when we spread the wealth around, everyone benefits'".
////////////////////////////////////////////
PEOPLE MAKING 40K A YR WHICH IS MOST OF AMERICA LOVE THAT COMMENT!

____________________

boomshak:

@Vin4Obama:

@BoomNUT_CASE
@Alankeyesisawesome
You guys, just so you know, the voting is going on..
Thought you should know that Obama is ahead by 24% *average* in NM, OH, IA, NC..
And about 12-14% voters have already voted ..

That is based upon LAME EXIT POLLING (incredibly innacurate) by SurveyUSA no less.

Utterly worthless data. fail. Next.

____________________

mirrorball:

"Why is it when liberals post their opinion it is an analysis, and when conservatives have an intelligent post, it's called trolling."

Well, let me ask you this:

1. Can you tell me how and when Obama attacked Palin's family in the past few days, which would theoretically cause a change in polling numbers.

2. Can you show me polling data from the past few days -- not just today -- that shows Obama's numbers are "freefalling" from the 50-53pc range that he seems to be enjoying in most polls.

3. Gay marriage is a hot button issue in this election? Do tell. Last time I checked, the economy was listed as the most important issue by about half of all voters. Social/"family values" issues barely register. This is consistent across most every poll.

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makersmark:

statistically republicans ARE less educated so I guess it makes sense to call their "analysis" trolling...

just going by the numbers!


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wakeup:

I hope McCain brings up Joe Wurzelbacher. The Keating five thing is too complicated to bring up properly. Regarding Ayers it comes down to educational theories.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@raisethewhiteflag

No one cares about the Keating 5, that was so long ago...Barack Obama is still best friends forever with Bill Ayers today, ANNNDDDD he is still involved with Acorn today.

Why do Democrats keep looking into the past, instead of looking into the future for solutions, as we Republicans do.

____________________

boomshak:

THE OBAMA CREED:

Vote Early. Vote Often.

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Lucky Luke:

I seriously think that Boomshak is not older than 20. This will probably be his first election. That would explain the enthusiasm, the mood changes, and the time he devotes to reading polls and posting in this site.

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carl29:

boomshak,

Yes We Can, Boomy :-)!!!!!

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raisethewhiteflag:

wakeup:
I hope McCain brings up Joe Wurzelbacher. The Keating five thing is too complicated to bring up properly. Regarding Ayers it comes down to educational theories.


A quick reference of "remember the keating 5 john?" you people can check out john and the keating 5 on my website if you wanna find out about johns shady past. no need to get into it, just a jab to throw mccain off his game and since he cant stand looking bad , its a gooD idea to toss it in if oppurtunity presents itself...

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alankeyesisawesome:

@makersmark

Most people with college degrees vote Republican...it is only with Postgraduate degrees that you see them voting Democrat as a majority, but that is just because of being in the liberal academic system for too long corrupts their rationality.

That is not to say that everyone holding a postgraduate degree is a Democrat, I have friends who went to BYU and Pepperdine grad schools and they are fervent Republicans.

____________________

wakeup:

AP report on Obama donations showing up on people's credit card statements.

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JFactor:

Polls are tightening my ass. Every time few polls show a meaningless move towards McCain people get frantic about it. Obama is hitting 50% mark regularly now when McCain can't break the 45% ceiling in any of them. That's the trend. Previous debates have helped Obama so it's more likely that Obama will benefit more from this debate too than McCain.
__________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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alankeyesisawesome:

@JFactor

Well excuse me for belonging to the party of hope.

____________________

raisethewhiteflag:

JFactor:
Polls are tightening my ass. Every time few polls show a meaningless move towards McCain people get frantic about it. Obama is hitting 50% mark regularly now when McCain can't break the 45% ceiling in any of them. That's the trend. Previous debates have helped Obama so it's more likely that Obama will benefit more from this debate too than McCain.


EXACTLY , when the next gallup is 51-41, boomcrack will skip the thread as usual!

so funny to watch these clowns gasping for air!

____________________

KipTin:

Quit the BS about Obama underperforming in Gallup polls on certain days. That has been debunked by actual data.

For example--
Wednesday October 8: Obama 52/McCain 41

----------

Gallup stated that McCain had good polling last night (Tuesday). May be because of his economic proposal which of those paying attention find to be very favorable.

____________________

RussTC3:

Heh, voters think McCain will raise their taxes.

From the CBS News/New York Times poll:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/cbsnyt_poll.php

Which candidate will raise your taxes? Respondents, by 51% to 46%, say it's McCain.
____________________

KipTin:

Statistics show that previous debates did NOT help Obama. The last debate was inconsequential because Obama was already benefiting from the economic crisis.

____________________

wakeup:

raisethewhiteflag,
a 13 minute video... clear and concise. By the way I think Obama was using cocaine back during the Keating 5 scandal.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@RussTC3

All taxes will be raised under Obama...he is lying to us when he says he will only raise them for the top wage earners...not surprising since he is a demoncrat.

____________________

boomshak:

NOW JUST HOLD ON THERE PARTNER!

FiveThirtyEight has announced that Obama is ahead by 35% in NC with 5% of the vote in.

One small problem.

Early voting in NC doesn't begin until October 16th, 2008! That is, tomorrow. Bullsh*t alert!

____________________

d3nnisbest:

alankeyesisawesome:
"Most people with college degrees vote Republican..."

It's a polling site. You can't jus make sh*t up.

____________________

paradski:

oct 6-12 BO 51 JM 41
sept 29-oct 5 BO 49 JM 43
sept 22-28 BO 48 JM 44

Nice solid movement to OB.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@boomshak

Can we convict Obama now for voter fraud, or do we need to wait until after the election. He outta be tarred and feathered.

____________________

wakeup:

RussTC3,
Not Joe Wurzelbacher.

____________________

carl29:

Guys, don't worry on Friday we'll find out if McCain is indee surging or this is just statistical noise. Remember that on Sunday, this past Sunday, we had the exact same numbers that we're getting today from Gallup, Obama 50% McCain 43%. The numbers changed on Monday, will they change tomorrow? Don't know, but we'll find out kids :-)

____________________

drinkwine247:

@
BoomSpank
and
ALANKEYESISAMORON

What f-ing planet do you live on where the diarrhea that spews from your mouths represents reality?

EVERY MOTHER F*&KING POLL SHOWS OBAMA UP!!!
Guess what else assholes......you guessed it, elections are state by state. Why do you think Obama is at 81% on intrade? Oh wait acorn, ayes, wright, forgetting that McLame's transition team head LOBBIED FOR SADAM HUSSEIN, AND THE TWO OTHER LOBBIESTS WENT TO JAIL FOR IT!!!!! MCCAIN PALS AROUND WITH TERRORISTS AND PEOPLE WHO COMMIT TREASON, WHERE IS THE MSM ON THAT ONE?????

____________________

wakeup:

US District Court orders a closer look at Ohio early-voting. How many of those 13,000 are frauds?

____________________

raisethewhiteflag:

@alankeyesisawesome:

enjoy , till the next gallup when its 51-41 lol!

____________________

Observer:

McCain's path to victory? Well:

1. A few things have to change, including the polls. I don't deny that with things as they are now Obama is going to win. But they might change.

2. National polling is about a 5% gap for LV now. Yesterday was better than that in a few polls, and that was the day after the big rise on Wall Street. Coincidence? who knows.

3. Was the bad economy news a bump for Obama? Will it now subside? Maybe, maybe not.

4. State polls at the moment are worse for McCain than the nationals but they are lagging indicators. If there is any sort of a move to McCain this week then the state polls next week might be a little better for him.

5. Yes, if McCain gets within 2/3% in the final pre-election polls it might be enough. A big part of the Obama support (e.g. AA voters) is already in the decided column. McCain might take most of the undecideds like Clinton did in a lot of Primaries.

6. I don't think McCain is out of range in any Bush states except Iowa. If he improves nationally he will again be competitive in New Hampshire. Bush lost New Hampshire in 2004 but only just. It was a lot closer than the pre-election polls said.

Will it happen? We shall have to wait and see. A good debate tonight will help.

____________________

orange24:

He outta be tarred and feathered.

Nice... It never takes long for the Republicans to get back to race.

And just what exactly are we convicting Obama of? How about we convict the Repulican party of stealing the 2000 election (greatest voter fraud in the history of mankind), squanding billions of dollars of budget surplus on the wealthiest Americans, and oh yeah, NATIONALIZING THE F*N BANKS

____________________

wakeup:

Obama is up because the economy is down. A socialist revolution cannot work in good times. Bad news for the country is good news for Obama.

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Thatcher:

@boomshak -

Yes, NC early voting doesn't start until October 16 ... however absentee ballots have been mailed and those are coming in ...

I know - I am one of the people doing the tracking of the absentee ballots.

As of yesterday - 47,075 people have voted in NC by absentee ballot.

____________________

carl29:

Judging for all the desperation from coming from McCain supporters, it doesn't look that they are as optimistic they say. Guys, you should be all hapiness. Your guy is "surging" :-)

____________________

raisethewhiteflag:

@drinkwine247:

dont get excited, thier typical rebels.
they do not know when to give up like thier beloved general lee who sent his army into certain death in gettysburg when they had no chance at victory!

____________________

Pat:

On CNN today: many republicans have recently turned on McCain for the Palin pick and are blaming her for McCain’s problems.

I have a theory about Palin pick. She was picked as an "escapegoat" for the GOP to blame their significant loss on her.

I am a career woman and know that in corporations often unqualified women are picked for high positions right before the company or a given department tanks in order to bear the blame for others (the good old boy club).

____________________

carl29:

boomshak,

I can tell you for my state Florida. Absentee ballots arrived to people's mail-boxes last week(or the previous). The PHISICAL early-voting starts on Oct.20.

____________________

mysticlaker:

@ Boom,
you said:
Why? I'm rich, good looking and chicks dig me.

Two days ago: You said you have cancer. Do you have cancer or not? What is the truth? Above you say you live a perfect life, but you also said you have cancer? If you do have cancer I do feel bad, but if you are using it as a decoy, you are a sad sad person.

____________________

drinkwine247:

@raisethewhiteflag

I hope McLame brings up Ayers, I really do. I want Obama to answer it in 10 seconds and turn it around and slam it over McLames head with all the implications of Having Timmons head his transition team (a job he will not actually have to do) but you get the idea!!
Psyched to see the Rope-A-Dope one last time!

____________________

raisethewhiteflag:

obama lucked out again today,
the dow is wayyyy down which will favor obama bigtime again tonight.
Whatever mccain throws at him , it will always turn to the economy tonight!

____________________

KipTin:

BS on your theory ...Pat. One major reason is that you expressed a default assumption that all men are "qualified" by your statement about "unqualified" women.

____________________

Lucky Luke:

"a socialist revolution" come on! Don't we have intelligent Republicans out there??? There is some very fine people in the GOP is just not that they're not here

____________________

RussTC3:

The debates didn't necessarily move the numbers much, they just solidified Obama's soft support.

McCain meanwhile needed to push those soft supporters over to his side and he failed miserably.

Voters are now comfortable with Obama and are willing to vote for him. They see McCain as the risky choice and find Obama to be the safe choice.

On a separate point, CNN just announced that Virginia has moved from Toss Up to Lean Obama.

____________________

thoughtful:

I have it at +14% Obama settling to about + 8% 52-44 on Election Day and 395 EVs.

McCain at 72 inspires no confidence in about 50% of RVs.

From the early voting there is overwhelming enthusiasm for Obama particularly in red states that for the first time in years are competitive.

McCain has made too many mistakes to list but major blunders include Sarah Palin; pronouncements that the Economy was strong; Suspending his campaign and over playing the negatives beyond credibility.

Obama appears to be cool, calm, calculating, considered, confident, intelligent and Presidential - a man for a crisis.

____________________

carl29:

Thatcher,

Do you feel that absentee ballot is safe? :-)

I don't know I always have this "funny" feeling about it. Maybe because here in Miami Dade County, Fl. politicians "win" with those absentee ballots. You know, the winner is X at the ballot box, but the absentee ballots put candidate Y on top. The candidate "benefited" from those ballots is always a Republican/Cuban. I just don't believe they count the democratic absentee ballots.

____________________

RussTC3:

Moving Virginia to Lean Obama, by the way, pushes him over the top (277 electoral votes).

____________________

mirrorball:

calm down, Boomshak. Fivethirtyeight was citing Survey USA's numbers, which are based on responses they got during recent polling. It is not, they acknowledge, based on actual vote counts. So it's not "5% of the vote in," it's, 5% of respondents said they had voted early/absentee.

____________________

Observer:

Pat

I think that if McCain had picked anybody else but Palin he would not even have the outside chance he now has.

All other VP possibilities have a whole menu of issues that the Democrats would have attacked. None of them would have had a chance of attracting Puma support or have energised the Rep base.

Some of them (mormon, pro-life, yet another long term Washington Senator) might even have boosted the stay home Republicans who were in evidence not so long ago.

____________________

Thatcher:

@carl29 -

I trust absentee more than at the poll. Now with computer "ATM" voting (many with no paper trail per ballot) - I don't trust them at all. I didn't trust the old "lever" machines, either.

I like Iowa - it's the S.A.T. style of fill in the bubble of your candidate ... paper trail for hand counting - but initial counts are done by machine.

____________________

Pat:

@KipTin:

You missed the point. My comment is not about men being qualified and women being un-qualified.

There were many qualified GOP women that could have been picked but it would be difficult to blame a qualified woman for a massive GOP loss.

____________________

wakeup:

Pat,
Don't believe that CNN noise, of all cable news ch's they have been the harshest on Palin. I was a CNN watcher until they knee-jerked on that story... pathetic.

____________________

OGLiberal:

@Observer

In addition to Iowa, I'd put New Mexico out of reach for McCain. Check out Rasmussen's poll from NM due to be released later today. Don't think it's going to be good for McCain. And recent NH polls aren't looking good for McCain.

@s.b.

Rasmussen's internals today show Obama up 48-43 w/out leaners, same +5 gap as w/leaners. Each guy gets +2 when leaners are pressed. This has pretty much been the case for the last several days - the w/leaners and w/o leaners gaps have been essentially the same.

____________________

carl29:

Thatcher,

Good to know that you feel comfortable with the absentee ballot. Luckily, we, here in Florida, are getting paper trial this time around. I know that I will be left wandering if my vote will count, though :-)!! I hope it does.

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maddiekat:

boobshak, kipnip, and all the other morons who cherry pick polls, why don't you put your money where your mouths are and go to Intrade. Currently McLiar is at 15.6 so the buying should be good. Also I looked it up and in 2004 Gallups error in the election was 2.5% and CBS, yes CBS only had an error of 0.5%.

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sunnymi:


For the first time McCain is trading at lower numbers on INTRADE than on IEM

http://www.intrade.com/

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html

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Pat:

@Observer,

I can see your point about other things but Palin never had a chance with PUMA. Here is why:

- She is too good looking and too in-experienced for PUMA. They like qualified women. They hate barbies.

- Palin's hunting background apeals to men, not women.

- Issues, issues, issues.

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carl29:

OMG!!!! I just checked the Dow, Oh my lord!!!! This is no good news for McCain.

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boomshak:

Rough day on WallStreet today -742. In light of that, McCain better lay off Ayers tonight.

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NW Patrick:

John McCain down today -769.96 in the DOW.

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Thatcher:

@carl29 -

I worked as a voter file consultant in 2000 for the Florida Democratic Party - worked with the group that managed the data for them and I went around giving trainings on the use of the voter file for targeting ...

I lived in West Palm that entire year - yes - I was there through the whole debacle.

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mysticlaker:

@ Boom answer the question. What type of person are you?
you said:
Why? I'm rich, good looking and chicks dig me.

Two days ago: You said you have cancer. Do you have cancer or not? What is the truth? Above you say you live a perfect life, but you also said you have cancer? If you do have cancer I do feel bad, but if you are using it as a decoy, you are a sad sad person. I have many family members who have had cancer, and it's a terrible disease. What is the truth?

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alankeyesisawesome:

Even though I know he's not, I have been telling all my friends that Obama is a muslim Arab (probably not but there is still the possibility), and telling them to spread the word. Whatever it takes to win the election, because we cannot afford to hand this country on a silver platter to the socialists.

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NW Patrick:

Hmmm So the Dow is down but McCain should suddently now lay off? Not because almost EVERY SINGLE poll shows his "association" method of campaigning is BACKFIRING? I am laughing so damn hard. McCain really JUST DOESN'T GET IT.

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