Pollster.com

Same old same old. Blah blah blah. Guess what you right wing, brain dead, knuckle dragging freaks. I AM NOT AFRAID!! I WILL NOT BE MADE AFRAID!!!

"...YOU CAN BLOW OUT A CANDLE - BUT YOU CAN'T PUT OUT THE FIRE, ONCE THE FLAMES BEGIN TO GROW, THE WIND WILL PUSH THEM HIGHER...."

What always surprises me is how you can poll 1000 different people every day and have the numbers remain exactly the same day after day after day.

Not saying it is wrong, just surprising.

Rasmussen historically is one of the "stickiest" tracking polls. It tends to lag the other polls when there is a momentum shift.

It was slow to show the McCain surge and then the Obama surge when many other polls were showing it already. Now we have 3 national polls coming out saying the race is statistically tied, but Rasmussen is stuck at +8.

Who knows, we'll see.

@boomshak

If three polls show the race statistically tied, but with the same guy in the lead in all three, the race is not statisticially tied, because the collective MOE of the polls is non-existant.

Well booms, for those polls that show the race "tied" as you say, there are others that show Obama +6 (NBC), and +8 (CNN) your cherry picking continues. So any predictions as to what the polls will do after the debate?

To really get an idea of what McCain is up against, click here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data

Even looking at the #s from the solid red states, all but like 3 have significant movement to the Democratic side. A lot can happen, but it does have the makings of a potential landslide.

Boomshak:

Stop cherry picking the polls that you only think are credible due to your own self serving bias.

Other than those three polls that you mention is a statistical 'tie' with Obama +3, and only saying it's a statistical 'tie' because your throwing the margin of error McCain's way.

Gallup +6-8

Rasmussen +6-8

WSJ/NBC +6

CNN +8

Hotline/FD Tracking +7

GW/Battleground +7

The polls YOU mention, are the outliers. It's notable to say that Obama now has a lead that either of the candidates in 2000, 2004 had up to this point.

Bonzi77,

This point has been made to boomshak over and over again.

Thus, I assume he's trolling. Otherwise, our friend boom is not very intelligent.

Boom,
Your 'stastically tied' is enough to make a statistian go bald. Being within the MOE doesn't mean stastically tied; it means it's different but you can't with clarity say you're that certain about it. The MOEs are based on how much error is acceptable. For most stats, 5% is a common error margin. So this means that if you run the same poll over and over again with a margin of error of +/-3% 95% of your results will be within 3% of your median value. You'll note that this also means it could be larger. The point is, that despite MOEs there is still likely to be a difference, it's just not enough to seperate a 95% confidence interval. Also not that it's less likely than the total margins of exposure (the two overlap) since it's two probabilities that have to move together, not one.

Not that you care or will listen, but I had to get that off my chest.

CNN/TIME:

Ohio, +3 Obama

North Carolina, Tie

Wisconsin, +5 Obama

New Hampshire, +8 Obama

Indiana, +5 McCain

that's average value, not median value (although it should be the same, theoretically)

boomshak, forget my words of understanding yesterday - you are truly sounding like a prize twat. Ok, so you support McStunt - but stop leaping on every tiny straw and calling it a rope. If you were a child, you'd be sent to your room. jesus, give it a rest - at least for a day. And then, if the unexpected happens and the race turns your race, by all means come on here and gloat. But in the meantime, less of the baby-talk

HELL HATH FROZEN OVER!

CNN has just come out with an Investigative report claiming that Obama LIED when he said he barely knew William Ayers. The report goes on to say that they worked closely together for years. Check the video at the link:

http://dirtyharrysplace.com/?p=4873

P.S., Ignore that this is a right-wing blog. The video is actually taken directly from CNN.

Hotline/FD Tracking is down to Obama +2.

Obviously, Boomshak will cherry pick this poll as well.

Well Boomshak, I give the margin of error to Obama.

So this poll is actually:

Hotline/FD Tracking +5 Obama

Here's another link to the CNN Investigation on YouTube if you can bring yourself to visit that other blog:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4EoEkI_sSs

The reason the Hotline/FD Tracking poll is unreliable today:

Independent voters favor McCain on the economy by an 8 pt. margin (42-34%).

Independent swing, within one day by 8%? Yeah right.

Boom... IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!

320!

Boom can hang his hat on the outliers, but polling aggregates are showing Obama with 320 EV, to McCain's 163 EV, with 55 tossups.

Here's what you guys have forgotten. it is rarely the CRIME that gets politicians in trouble, it is the COVER-UP.

Just as Scooter Libby, Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon.

Obama's spokeman came out yesterday and said very clearly "Obama did NOT know of Ayers background as a domesttic terrorist at the time of the party at his house..."

As has been exposed on CNN, this was CLEARLY A LIE. America doesn't like being lied to.

If CNN is running stories like this, you have to know the thing has legs.

boomshak

I didn't hear anything in that CNN clip that said Obama knew of Ayers background when he attended that party.

@muckinello:

"Boom... IT'S THE ECONOMY, STUPID!"

No, actually it's "CAN YOU TRUST OBAMA ON THE ECONOMY, STUPID!"

Face it, things look bad and if you are going to give the smooth talking new guy with no experience the keys to the car, you better trust him.

There is no such thing as a statistical tie. This is not a phrase that you would ever hear a legitimate statistician use.

Just because the results of a poll have each candidate within the MOE does not mean that each candidate has an equal chance of being in the lead.
Here is a web site with a fairly good explanation, and a table you can use to determine the actual chance that the candidate in the lead is really in the lead:
http://blog.case.edu/singham/2008/09/02/understanding_polls

So, for example, if a poll has a MOE of +/- 2 and one candidate is ahead of another by 2 points, that means that the candidate in the lead has a 84% chance of actually being in the lead and the candidate that lags behind only has a 16% chance of actually being in the lead.

That is clearly not a "statistical tie."

Boom,

This Ayers thing has no legs whatsoever. People just don't care. If people are still voting for Obama after his "scary" pastor said, "God damn America," this Ayers thing is just not going to phase anyone.

FWIW, I think the Keating 5 business is the same way for McCain. I don't think it's going to hurt him, primarily because no one really cares.

Woohooo, Ohio is blue. Up to 320 now for Obama.

boomshak's got a new poll.

The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll
Obama-Biden 46%
McCain-Palin 44%
Undecided 9%

-- The race has tightened in the last day. After trailing by 5-7 pts. for the last 10 days, McCain is now just 2 pts. behind Obama.

--One potential reason: Obama's one-time lead on the question of who'd best handle the economy has evaporated. Today, Obama and McCain are tied at 42%. Independent voters favor McCain on the economy by an 8 pt. margin (42-34%).

--Even so, among the 62% of voters who picked the economy as their #1 issue, Obama leads McCain by 9 pts. - 49-40%.

Today's Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/4-6 by FD; surveyed 908 LVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% Party ID Breakdown: 40%D, 38%R, 18%I.

Hotline seems to be an outlier today. Remember that 5 out of a 100 polls are not correct and tracking polls are more likely to give us an outlier becaause of the high number of surveys.Every single poll gives Obama a much higher percentage in managing the economy and in this one Obama and McCain are tied

@[nemesis]:

Here clearly knew of it when they worked together closely for years, or Obama is an idiot.

Obama is trying to say he was just a guest at the party. Those at the party said that it was clearly organized by Obama and Ayers as a coming out.

Either your man is stupid or a liar.

Obama's bad judgement with people is only confirmed by his 20 year association with Rev Wright. Alone, these issues might seem acceptable, but there is a clear pattern here.

JCK is right. If the Ayers/rev. Wright smear didn't work in the primaries, it's not going to work in the general.

Yes, I think McCain should really back off before he gets himself in real trouble. He's got the Keating 5 story in his background, and apparently ties to a group involved in the Iran-Contra scandal. There's so much dirty laundry in his past that he'll end up completely buried in it if he doesn't back off. That doesn't even bring up the ethics violations of Gov. Palin.

Boom, the republithugs got us in the ditch. I will gladly give the keys to the only guy that has a plan of getting tha car in reverse since McCain just wants to go further in!

Rasmussen, battleground and research2000 show no change

@thoughtful:
boomshak's got a new poll.

The Early Line: Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll
Obama-Biden 46%
McCain-Palin 44%
Undecided 9%

That is 4 polls now in the last 2 days that say this is a 2-3 point race.

Even CNN is reporting that Obama is LYING about Ayers. McCain is managing to change the subject from the economy, not that Obama actually has the experience to have any idea what the hell to do on the economy.

And then there's this. If asked tonight, Obama may be forced to admit he will have to delay his Middle Class Tax Cut. That won't play well.

@Boom

Why don't you talk about the CNN poll with Obama at 53-45?

Why don't you talk about the 175,000 absentee ballots requested in Ohio? You made the claim in another thread that Obama has no ground game.

http://www.10tv.com/live/content/local/stories/2008/10/07/vote.html?sid=102

Why don't you talk about John McCain's shady dealings with Keating 5, U.S. Council for World Freedom, and Pastors Hagee, Parsley, Falwell and Robertson?

You can point to all of Obama's guilt by associations but you can't ignore McCain's. You're right the American people don't like being lied to which is why Obama has a statistically significant lead.

boomshak: As I said last night, I highly doubt that you've personally vetted everybody that you work with. Neither have the vast majority of people in this country. Saying that Obama obviously knew the intimate details of Ayers past is ridiculous, considering he was a child when Ayers as a terrorist. Since finding out about his past, Obama has publicly denounced them, more than once. You have no case here.

I think when they chant Drill Baby Drill, they are talking about McShame's head.

Nukeyouler ain't gonna work, you betcha not!

http://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true

People JUST DON'T CARE.

No one besides political junkees and the converted discuss this stuff.

Ayers may get the Limbaugh contingent fired up, but it's non issue for virtually everyone else. The efforts to make Obama seems "scary" have failed. Most people have formed their own opinion of him by now, and these last ditch attempt by the McCain campaign are going to fall primarly on deaf (or already converted) ears.

By the same token, the Keating 5 or Iran-Contra business may get Obama folks fired up, but the vast majority of people just won't care (they just assume politicians are corrupt anyway).

POOR POOR LITTLE BOOM... he must live a very lonely life being so disconnected from reality. His rose colored glasses are pretty foggy right now...

@Boomshak

One of the things that is hysterical is that Walter Annenberg was an Arch Conservative and Reagans Ambassodor to the UK.

So Obama met the arch weatherman Ayers through Annenbergs eductional charity!

As illustration:

You know, Boomshak, that I am a self confessed radical. You know that you have been in discussion with me for months now.

You know I did a lot of things, not bombing though, but including refusing to go off to Vietnam to kill people that I am very proud of.

I think you and I have had more discussion than Obama and Ayers but that doesn't mean that you agree with me or my actions.

Neither does it mean anything else about Obama or Ayers.

Wittering on about individual national polls is silly. The weighted average of 9 polls yesterday showed 50/43, ie Obama +7. The weights I used were taken from 538, although due to a statistical fluke the result was virtuall identical to the simple average. It also closely agreed with this site's own tracker.

Wait till the today's nationals are all in and then munge them.

BTW, Rasmussen had a weight of 1.79, Hotline 0.56, R2K 0.69 and Gallup of 1.14, based on historic poll accuracy, age and sample size.

Why, in the name of Zeus, are we rabbiting on about Ayers. The (world) economy is in flames and people are allowing themselves to get distracted by a complete non-issue

Collective MOE is nonexistent? What statistical class did you not pass? The ONLY time MOE is not a factor is when the ENTIRE POPULATION is sampled.

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NONE of these polls are OUTLIERS. Again... statistics!!! All are within the same range... some higher and some lower...NONE are atypical.

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Obama did not denounce Ayers until the Democratic primary. Are you guys trying to convince us that Obama did not know about Ayers "background" until 2008? So was it bad judgment or just being clueless? Why is Obama still trying to downplay a significant relationship with Ayers and his foundation (Chicago Annenberg Project) where Obama was CEO. Check out Ayers "education" philosophy for teaching kids to "fight" oppression from our government. Yes, really! Not better math or reading or science instruction but training toward becoming anarchists according to Ayers' worldview, aka communists with a small "c."

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Keating Five? Where McCain was not found culpable? And also where McCain long ago took responsibility for even associating with Keating. And in response McCain started his quest for campaign finance reform. Also note that the other four Keating Five were DEMOCRATS, of which three support Obama. (The fourth, Senator Cranston died.)

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McCain had no direct involvement in Iran/Contra. But having said that, very few Americans were/are against fighting the spread of communism. What this brings up is that Obama associated with small "c" communists, whereas McCain has a strong record against communism (little "c" and big "c").

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What? Reverend Wright was Obama's pastor and mentor for over 20 years and only just this last spring did Obama "denounce" him (for political purposes), and Obama's church preaches black liberation theology. And Obama has another longtime mentor and friend... Father Phleger, who was reprimanded by the Catholic Church for his pro-Obama antics.

Pastors Hagee, Parsley, Falwell and Robertson have never been McCain's pastors nor mentors. (And Falwell died in 2007.)

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Obama's "guilt by association" is based on LONG-TERM relationships with people who are outside the majority American mainstream. They appear to as "radicals" to most.

Do your research... thoughtful. It was NOT an Annenberg charity. Annenberg organization provided a "challenge" grant for the educational foundation founded by Bill Ayers in 1995. As a challenge grant, it was to be matched 2:1 by private donors. Obama served on the board of Ayers' foundation from 1995-2002, when this foundation was dissolved. That is seven years of direct association with Ayers toward a common goal. The final assessment of this project was that the $110 million spent in Chicago over six years had little or no impact on outcomes for students.(Not surprising since Ayers' educational "experiment" had little to do with actual "learning theory.")

Obama's "guilt by association" is based on LONG-TERM relationships with people who are outside the majority American mainstream. They appear to as "radicals" to most.

Obama was a child when Ayers was engaged in violent radicalism. By the time they met, Ayers was an associate professor at a prestigious university.

Apparently, Obama says the same thing...johncoz That we should be "talking" about the economy, but we are electing a President who will have numerous challenges. In my opinion, Obama should have "fully" answered these question about Ayers (and others) some time ago, rather than dismissing them. So now 30 days until election, they are back to haunt him. This happened before...Obama knew Wright would appear as a major issue, yet he tried to downplay Wright until he finally had to disown him and quit his church. And because of Obama's lack of addressing Wright sooner than later, those actions will also come back now.

Wow, defending Ayres now.

Uh... Ayers is not repentant. It is not like he is sorry for his past actions, but rather still holds those views as revealed in an article about him that appeared the morning of 9/11/2001 in the NY Times.

By the way... working for a "prestigious" university does not in itself make one also "prestigious." Ayers has a VIOLENT past as a DOMESTIC TERRORIST. Although a relationship with Ayers is acceptable in Illinois politics, it is not a good thing when running for national office... especially since the Oklahoma City bombing and 9/11.

BTW: I believed Ayers and his ilk were reprehensible 40 years ago and I still do today. If it was not for prosecutorial misconduct, Ayers and his wife (another domestic bomber) would have been in jail where they belong. Maybe that would have made them truly "sorry" for their extraordinarily violent activities.

"What always surprises me is how you can poll 1000 different people every day and have the numbers remain exactly the same day after day after day.

Not saying it is wrong, just surprising.

Rasmussen historically is one of the "stickiest" tracking polls. It tends to lag the other polls when there is a momentum shift."

True, but why should that be "surprising"? It's a three day tracking poll and thus the two early day samples would tend to equilibriate any measurable increase or decrease toward the earlier samples. You generally won't see jumps, but if you do it means that the last day poll was considerably larger (or that an earlier shift the previous day was obscured by lower initial two day samples).

One point...when Rassmussen shifted to 1000 person daily samples...how did they decide to subsample these when they were still reporting 400-500 day results?

The question I have for conservatives is, if Obama's association with Ayers constitutes such a black mark on his character, and if it represents such a danger to this country if he is elected, why wasn't it hammered home more forcefully in July and August? Why wasn't it a centerpiece of the GOP's case against Obama? Why is it only being brought out when McCain is slipping in the polls and other events seem to have America's undivided attention?

Even if you're right (and that's a gigantic, colossal "if"), then you certainly waited long enough to start pretending it was important.