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US: Obama 52, McCain 44 (Rasmussen 10/22-24)

Topics: PHome

Rasmussen
10/22-24,08; 3,000 LV 2%
Mode: IVR

National
Obama 52, McCain 44

 

Comments
Kile Thomson:
____________________

carl29:

Tie for Sunday, boomy? :-)

McCain is surging!!!!!!!

____________________

blakec:

Time for boomshtick to pick a new worlds greatest pollster.

____________________

Great American:

Bye, Bye McCain. Rasmussen is pro-republican.

____________________

johncoz:

All the makings of a very bad day for McCain.

Here is yesterday's seven day graph of the five 3-day trackers:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3202/2969900424_303482e36c_b.jpg

One of things that stands out from the numbers is that Standard Deviation for Obama's support in those trackers is +/- 0.8%, which represents an astonishing degree of convergence.

And for those who constantly deride boomshak for making incorrect predictions, let me remind you of this piece of advice from the man himself:

===================================
boomshak:

Anyway, for the next 3 weeks, watch Rasmussen.

Posted on October 13, 2008 8:08 AM

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NextAmericanChapter:

Obama is now outperforming the generic democrat ballot. Bet you won't hear much about that.

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johncoz:

Oh, and from Rasmussen, this priceless piece of information:

"Forty-eight percent (48%) are now certain they will vote for Obama while 40% say the same about McCain."

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

johncoz:
"All the makings of a very bad day for McCain."


I don't think McCain can really afford bad days at this point, let alone "very bad days". And yet I still know democrats who are nervous. Past losses weigh heavily on their minds, I guess.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

Obama will be in NV and NM today, CO tomorrow...I think this is a huge weekend to help reinforce support out west.

He may not get back out there for the remainder of the campaign.

With Mccain on MTP tomorrow, any chance it's Obama next Sunday?

____________________

vmval1:

There is many a slip between th cup and the lip.

____________________

zen:


So, Joe the Plumber, Biden's gaffe are not working...
Today, Obama campaign is sending out a New Ad... blueprint for future, quite concrete... this will help solidify soft voters.

Still I hate Biden, without his gaffe, I could have been in ecstasy already.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Widening lead for Obama with Rasmussen??? 8 points! Since he is such a right leaning pollster, and many on their side point to this poll as the one to watch, I would have to say we are about to witness something massive on November 4th.

Be a part of history, my friends!

LANDSLIDE BABY LANDSLIDE

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

zen:

"So, Joe the Plumber, Biden's gaffe are not working...
Today, Obama campaign is sending out a New Ad... blueprint for future, quite concrete... this will help solidify soft voters.

Still I hate Biden, without his gaffe, I could have been in ecstasy already."


I very much like Biden, he just doesn't know when to shut the hell up. Obama knew that when he selected him though. So far it hasn't done much damage.

____________________

Dana Adini:

check out early results from new mexico. Brenalillo country which accounted for 33% of the NM vote and went Kerry 51% Bush 48%.

check out the early breakdown of voters this is 28% of the county


http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

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Trosen:

Plus 50 in Ras and holding strong. That's the whole story. Unless Obama falls below 48 or 47 in a number of national polls, that's it.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Joe the dumbass Plummer should listen to McCain himself, since what Obama said to Joe scared him.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3htTdAh3vg4

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thoughtful:

Good Morning everybody

GOTV this isn't over yet bt the fat lady is lumbering up big time.

Biggest lead yet on Rasmussen over a month over 50%.

The Obama camp can be very quietly confident but really does have to get the vote out.

I really thought several months agao that ageism was a bigger factor than racism. When the story is told McCain couldn't overcome his 72 years against a younger opponent and picking Sarah Palin didn't exactly improve the contrast even took away the experience card.

390+EVS

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Vokoban:

@ Dana

I sometimes wonder if they can't call the election like on November 2nd. Given the early oter turnout their will be hardly any dems left on November 4 who haven't already voted...

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abraxaf:

if only 1/6th of uncommitted or leaning-either-way voters go for obama, he wins. this election is over.

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Indiana4Obama:

I know Obama has counted on NM and IA as solidly behind him come November 4...for those familiar w/ the situation in IA and NM is it as positive as we've been made to believe?

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Vokoban:

Voter turnout, not oter turnout. Stupid me...

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jonny87:

@zen

joe 'gaffe machine' biden doesnt make things easy.

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Atomique:

So Bush III would need to narrow the gap by a rate of about one point per day in the Rasmussen tracker if he wants a lead by Election Day. Nice.

Because that's not going to happen. Obama is past the 50% mark while there are still a significant number of undecideds 10 days before the election. The math just won't add up for a Bush re-election this time.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

Early voting usually favors Republicans, so this year proves just how high the enthusiasm gap is between Obama and Mccain. There should be PLENTY of Obama supporters left to vote on election day...I'll be one of them.

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Vokoban:

@ Indiana,

I wasn't exactly serious, you know... (C;

____________________

thoughtful:

Where's boomshak this morning, this is his pollster?

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vmval1:

C'mon guys, now is not the time to get complacent.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

Vokoban,
Yeah, I know you weren't serious. Folks ask me why I haven't voted early and I tell them I actually enjoy voting on election day.

____________________

Vokoban:

I have a new spin idea for boom: all the MSM are switching the numbers to crush enthusiasm for McCain. In truth the numbers are vice versa: McCain leads with 10 points.

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political_junki:

But how could this be? I have a friend in Obama camp that says every body is freaked out there over their internals. He said everybody there feels things are slipping away. He said he even has seen Axelrod crying and saying "Whyyy? Whyyyyy? :(((("
Polls and all other MSM created news are bull****. I stand by my friend. ONAMA will be DESTROYED by sunday night.

____________________

jonny87:

new poll out in ohio? anyone got a link?

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boomshack:


ok, guys, who here would be truly surprised to find out that Obama with his $150 million in his war chest GOT to Rasmussen? If there is anything the current crisis has taught us, it's that everybody can be bought. Everybody has a price. And it is clear that Ras sold out.

Look at the screwy internals: Ras had OH for McCain by 2 yesterday, FL was also showing good movement for M, but his national polls suck of late. You have to admit that. I bet he began switching the people he has been polling, just like Gallup. (I broke that scandal yesterday and notified the McCain campaign and FCC BOTH!)

Still, if we subtract all the Dem responses, we get a tied race. TODAY! Not by Sunday.

____________________

miatch:

@vmval1

I actually do think I'm about to get complacent. I call first dibs though, nobody else can, k?

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[nemesis]:

haha, boomshaCk, that just gave me a really good laugh. A lot of the time, your satire can be annoying, but that was downright funny.

____________________

political_junki:

jonny:
here you go:http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2008/10/26pollpdf.pdf


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jonny87:

NC early voting numbers just updated. going great.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

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miatch:

Boomer, just cuz you'd sell your soul for a buck fifty, doesn't mean the rest of the world would

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jonny87:

@political_junki

cheers

____________________

political_junki:

jonny87:
NC numbers are incredible. Also in GA if Barr manages to get 10%, Obama will have a good chance

____________________

vmval1:

@miatch:
You know the diff between the 2 Booms?

____________________

boomshack:

political_junki:

"But how could this be? I have a friend in Obama camp that says every body is freaked out there over their internals. He said everybody there feels things are slipping away. He said he even has seen Axelrod crying and saying "Whyyy? Whyyyyy? :(((("
Polls and all other MSM created news are bull****. I stand by my friend. ONAMA will be DESTROYED by sunday night."

Do _you_ have a friend in the Obama camp?! No, you do NOT. So how do you know what is going on with Axelrod or anyone else there? How do you know how they are ACTUALLY feeling today?

AND

Is it Sunday night yet in your vegan omelet, latte and granola filled world? Here in the land of moose hunters and wolf killers it is Saturday morning!

OWN!

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vmval1:

@boomshack:
do you like eating dwarf?

____________________

DCDemocrat:

boomshack: The national sample and the state samples are different. As a Democrat, let me tell you that we have some experience with raw deals. The pain gets better with time. You'll move on.

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jonny87:

@political_junki

i think if barr only got 5% obama would be in good shape.

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political_junki:

@boom:
Do you have a hang over or some thing?
When did I say it is Sunday?
Dude you seriously should start considering changing your medication. Talk to your doctor and show him your posts here for a more accurate diagnosis

____________________

Vokoban:

@ everybody,

BoomshaCk is the parody of Boomshak. Just let him run away with it. He doesn't need medication. Only sometimes he needs to think a bit longer about his jokes.

____________________

political_junki:

@BOOM:
By the way Sundays nights I have steak and blue label :) not that there is any thing wrong with vegan omelet, latte and granola. Only a vegetable brain like you would try to judge people because they eat vegan omlet

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

[nemesis]:

"haha, boomshaCk, that just gave me a really good laugh. A lot of the time, your satire can be annoying,"

I dunno, imho most of the exchanges in

/blogs/us_obama_50_mccain_42_ipsos101.html

thread were priceless.
But I am sick. I think that the original alankeyesisawesome was hysterical at least 80% of the time too.

fwiw

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jonny87:

another early voting story

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-earlyvoting25-2008oct25,0,1615606.story

'More than 1.5 million Floridians have already cast ballots. Democrats hold a tiny advantage: 42.7% to 42.6%. Republicans now hold a 16-point edge in absentee balloting, whereas Democrats have a 23-point lead among people showing up at the voting booths'

dem advantage should start growing as in-person voting makes up an incresing percentage of early vote.

____________________

C.S.Strowbridge:

"C'mon guys, now is not the time to get complacent."

As they say on The Young Turks...

A Always
B Be
C Closing

Always be closing.

____________________

johncoz:

I actually prefer the real boom. No parody required.

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Dana Adini:

guys i have to tell you about this.....

There is a right wing blog site davidwissing.com. Hard core conservative site. As you might guess the people there are freaked out about the wave of polls over the past month.

there is a guy there by the tag of polaris who is the like the "poll guru" he tears apart every poll and tells everybody that mccain is ahead. It's amazing every post is like

Tina: "polaris Dems are outnumbering GOP 2-1 in early NC voting i'm worried"

Polaris: "it's fine Obama is underforming Kerry in North Carolina since the AA vote is only 28% we should only be worried if it gets above 30%"

Tina: "thank you. I feel good now"

and on and on......like a congregation and he's the priest...amazing stuff

____________________

boomshack:

political_junki:

"...ONAMA will be DESTROYED by sunday night."

that's where! (not that it's important)
and who cares what color labels you stick on your lattes! they are STILL lattes.

____________________

boomshack:

vmval1:

@boomshack:
do you like eating dwarf?

I dunno. What's a dwarf? If by that slur you mean a vertically challenged feminine American, the answer is NO! I prefer taller and dominant women who don't overthink things.

What do you like?

____________________

political_junki:

"and who cares what color labels you stick on your lattes! they are STILL lattes"

So what if they are lattes?
Funny how 2 weeks ago atleast you had some talking points.
Now your arguments are:

1- OBAMA has paid out Rassmussen
2- Obama supporters drink latte

PATHETIC MAN. VERY VERY WEAK

____________________

carl29:

jonny87,

Those numbers don't reflect yesterday's early voting. It hasn't been updated yet, but it was great in Dade County, south florida.

This is the first time that Democrats have the edge in early+absentee voting. Always the Republicans get the head start with the absentee ballots, as they did this year; however, the Democratic turnout has being so great that in 4 days of early voting, Democrats made up the difference and took the total lead.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Ashley Todd
$150,000
Troopergate

After reading the article about the handling of Palin's image, I almost felt sorry for her. The McCain campaign has shown very little competence in presenting her to the national stage.

But, let's reason. She wasn't nearly ready for the opportunity and she should have turned it down given her circumstances by which I mean her involvement in troopergate. I fault her for not calculating the publics perception of her candidacy.

She's not ready and perhaps that why her judgement mistakenly led her to believe she could actually become the Vice President by riding the coat tails of John McCain and Hillary Clinton.

But, what is John McCain's excuse? Did he not consider that his age and health would be legitimate issues? Why didn't he put more effort into vetting the V.P. candidates? The whole incident reflects poorly on his judgement and in the end, it will be John McCain who gets the blame for such a poor showing. Palin can still recover, but this is it for McCain and the Bush campaign advisors.

____________________

boomshack:

political_junki:

"and who cares what color labels you stick on your lattes! they are STILL lattes"

"So what if they are lattes?
Funny how 2 weeks ago atleast you had some talking points.
Now your arguments are:
1- OBAMA has paid out Rassmussen
2- Obama supporters drink latte
PATHETIC MAN. VERY VERY WEAK"

Can we at least agree that it is Saturday morning?

____________________

political_junki:

"Can we at least agree that it is Saturday morning? "

First thing you have said that makes sense. I give you that.

____________________

blakec:

@boomshack

"Still, if we subtract all the Dem responses, we get a tied race. TODAY! Not by Sunday. "


--------------------------------------------

That is the greatest spin line ever. Seriously. If we don't count the Dems, then the race is tied? HAHAHAHAAHA

Shouldn't you at least be winning if you only count Republicans?

____________________

RussTC3:

That new Obama ad is by-far his best 2-minute one yet, and perhaps the most effective political ad I've seen in a long, long time.

He really hit it out of the park with that one.

Amazing.

____________________

boomshak:

ODD MOVEMENT IN NATIONAL VS STATE:

Rasmussen shows McCain significantly narrowing the gap or taking the lead in two new state polls, but expanding his lead nationally.

Last week, Rasmussen had Obama's national lead narrowing but expanding in states.

Yesterday, Obama annouced NC had gone M+2 and NH had gone O+4. That's a 5 point swing to McCain in the first and a 6 point swing to McCain in the second.

During the same time, we get a 4 point swing to Obama nationally.

I'm sure there is some reasonable explanation for this, but on the surface, it seems contradictory.

____________________

jonny87:

@carl29

not only is turnout great, but ive read that its actually increasing day on day.

____________________

boomshack:

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

But, let's reason. She wasn't nearly ready for the opportunity and she should have turned it down given her circumstances by which I mean her involvement in troopergate. I fault her for not calculating the publics perception of her candidacy.

I do not think it is fair to ask Palin to be objective about herself. Think about it. How is that fair?!

She knows why she was chosen. We know why she was chosen. But our reasons for why she was chosen are ALL DIFFERENT. That's why polling WORKS!

You already know your reasons why you think she was chosen. 1) Every ticket need balance. 2) She balances McCain. 3)I mean, have you seen what he looks like? I mean REALLY stare at him. I bet you can't even look at him for more than 5 seconds without a twitch. The man is GROSS. And 5)Palin is UberHOTTT. Did you see her in that red leather jacket?! Need I say more? 6)She is the looks of the ticket, and if we had Romney, that would be the brains. 7)Just wait until Palin/Romney 2012!

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blakec:

Maybe they are switching from counting Dems to not counting Dems.

____________________

jonny87:

reinforcements sent to georgia...

The 100 new Obama volunteers coming here will supplement an existing cadre of nearly 5,000 volunteers already trained and working here, Adelman said. They will have a singular mission: getting voters to the polls, which, in campaign parlance, is known as GOTV, for “get out the vote.”

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/stories/2008/10/24/georgia_obama_volunteers.html

____________________

blakec:

"I do not think it is fair to ask Palin to be objective about herself. Think about it. How is that fair?!"

If you are any indication, expecting the right to be objective about anything is really expecting too much. Republicans seem to have made a religion out of self delusion.

____________________

boomshack:

boomshak:

ODD MOVEMENT IN NATIONAL VS STATE:

Rasmussen shows McCain significantly narrowing the gap or taking the lead in two new state polls, but expanding his lead nationally.
Last week, Rasmussen had Obama's national lead narrowing but expanding in states.
Yesterday, Obama annouced NC had gone M+2 and NH had gone O+4. That's a 5 point swing to McCain in the first and a 6 point swing to McCain in the second.
During the same time, we get a 4 point swing to Obama nationally.
I'm sure there is some reasonable explanation for this, but on the surface, it seems contradictory.


Well, look at who is a pound late and a penny short! Faux boom, we ALREADY discussed that, like, 5 hours ago:

/blogs/us_obama_52_mccain_44_rasmusse_1.html#comment-87835

Welcome to America, troll! You are so [expletive deleted] predictable!

____________________

boomshack:

@blakec

:)
glad to see at least somebody is paying attention.

____________________

maddiekat:

Hotline Poll O 50 M 43

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Someone in the Republican party needs to get out the knife and start stabbing at the backs of those that have weighted the party down.

I would think that Mike Huckabee should be the person to come to Palin's defense. Given what the Republican base is today, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin represent the brightest stars of the party's future. It's the base from which they can attempt to build a more inclusive brand built around pragmatic social reconstruction and an acknowledgment that the values of most people in this country have their roots in Judeo Christian belief.

For big ideas, the Republican party should push Huckabees fair tax policy. As for Palin, she's going to have to start including people of other faiths and cultures in her immediate inner circle so that people can trust that she's not a religious zealot.

For parity in this country, get 'ta stabbin'.

____________________

Vokoban:

>As for Palin, she's going to have to start including people of other faiths and cultures in her immediate inner circle so that people can trust that she's not a religious zealot.

Well...she actually IS a religious zealot.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@Vokoban

Well...she actually IS a religious zealot.

I know that but for her sake I hope she realizes that thats unacceptable to the American people. Bush was TOO TOO much and she's a step past Bush.

____________________

[nemesis]:

Hotline poll shows 0 movement towards Obama.

MCCAIN SURGE!!!!!

____________________

boomshack:

Vokoban:

As for Palin, she's going to have to start including people of other faiths and cultures in her immediate inner circle so that people can trust that she's not a religious zealot.

Well...she actually IS a religious zealot.

That's right, Vokoban. It is important that at this time of our nation in crisis we all come together AND STOP asking her to be objective. If you take that away from her, she's got nothing left. Except for her looks, of course.
Which are SuperHOTTTT (not unlike Mitt Romney)

____________________

jrcclark:

"That's right, Vokoban. It is important that at this time of our nation in crisis we all come together AND STOP asking her to be objective. If you take that away from her, she's got nothing left. Except for her looks, of course.
Which are SuperHOTTTT (not unlike Mitt Romney)"

She is way OVER-DRESSED, by a few thousand dollars ...

____________________

johncoz:

@boomshak

Interesting point about the state polls v nationals, except like many you are looking at the wrong number.

The spread is a highly volatile number and its accuracy is 2x the max MOE for the survey.

What you need to look at is the actual support for each candidate, and you will find that the movements there are 3%.

When looking at battleground state polls at this point in the cycle, the relevant question is whether Obama's support is above or less than the national level. In NH it was 50%, about right for 10/23. In NC it was 48, which is below but quite credible given the closeness of the race there and the MOE of a 700 sample.

____________________

jonny87:

about ras state polling im pretty sure he plays around with the affiliation advantage.

yesterdays NC for example must of been only about a 5 point dem affiliation advantage. with a registration advantage of 12.5% and greater enthusiasm dems are going to be closer to a 15 point advantage than 5.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

JUST OUT:

Obama is up in Ohio . . . Some body tell Missy Elliot it's time to start singing . . .

____________________

jonny87:

ohios taken a while to move to obama. people sick of joe the plumber there?

____________________

johncoz:

jonny, I suspect Ras does not weight party ID in state polls, since there is little empirical basis for doing so.

That's why sensible aggregations are even more important than at the national level. The MOE's are too large, as are the voter models.

Personally, I recommend 538's state tables as the best reference.

____________________

ZanzibarBuckBuckMcFate:

"There is a right wing blog site davidwissing.com. Hard core conservative site. As you might guess the people there are freaked out about the wave of polls over the past month.

there is a guy there by the tag of polaris who is the like the "poll guru" he tears apart every poll and tells everybody that mccain is ahead."

I saw a thread this morning from a poster in Free Republic who is convinced that... wait for it... McCain is going to win ALL 50 states in the "biggest Presidential landslide in history". He bases this on his observation that people at Obama rallies don't seem as happy as he (she?) thinks they should be. Makes boomshak seem positively rational.

To be completely fair, even most of the posters there thought he was nuts.

____________________

DTM:

When you look at the overall averages in the state polls, making due allowance for states not polled frequently and/or recently, they are actually quite consistent with the national average.

By the way, I somewhat doubt Huckabee is going to be helping out Palin any time soon, since they are likely going to be competing for the same power base within the Republican Party over the next few years.

On the other hand, I could see Romney jumping to her defense, if he was inclined to be clever. Basically, he benefits if both Huckabee and Palin remain competitive, and it probably wouldn't hurt his somewhat shakey relationship with the Religious Right.

____________________

RussTC3:

Rasmussen 2008 vs. Rasmussen 2004

7-Day Average of 3-Day Tracking Polls, 10/19-25 (Bush/Kerry from 10/17-23, 2004 in parenthesis)
Obama 51.1 (47.9)
McCain 45.1 (49.6)
Obama +6.0 (Bush +1.7)

Obama is over-performing Kerry's numbers by 3.2 points, while McCain is under-performing Bush's numbers by 4.5 points.

____________________

polls_apart:

@boomshak:

The narrowing in some state results may reflect the narrowing in the national tracking numbers which occurred last week, since it is apparent that state-by-state polling results lag the national numbers.

____________________

polls_apart:

The corollary to my last comment is that the widening margin for Obama in this week's national polling my be refected in next week's state-by=state numbers.

____________________

polls_apart:


The corollary to my last comment is that the widening margin for Obama in this week's national polling my be reflected in next week's state-by-state numbers.

____________________

C.S.Strowbridge:

"By the way, I somewhat doubt Huckabee is going to be helping out Palin any time soon, since they are likely going to be competing for the same power base within the Republican Party over the next few years."

Yep.

The Republicans are now fighting for 2012, and it is going to get ugly for them.

____________________

burrito:

The Gallup numbers are out. They pretty much reflect the same thing.

____________________

redmalamute:

I urge everyone to check out this link. It could not be funnier. It has Palin in the white house and what it would be like. Just click on the various items (computer screen, doors, etc.) Enjoy and pass it around. I had nothing to do with it creation and it is supposed to be updated everyday until Novemeber 4th.

http://www.palinaspresident.us/

____________________

JimGray:

LOL!!
The above www.palinaspresident.us/ site is Hilarious.

____________________

Jeff:

I really don't see why Biden's statement about Obama being tested is a gaffe. Enemies of the US will test any new administration. All Biden is saying is they are prepared for it and they know there will be challenges ahead. What's wrong with that?

Would you rather he lie to you? I know McCain is an awful lot like Bush but that doesn't matter. Countries like Iran and Russia are testing Bush right now. There's no reason to believe they wouldn't test McCain too. That's just how the world works. If you want a candidate who is going to lie and pander to you then I guess Obama/Biden isn't the ticket you want.

____________________

countrymous3:

Hey all,

Be sure to click through any and all anti-Obama ads (such as the NRA one I just saw). Sure, the advertisers are paying for each clickthrough, but I think it's only right that we give due consideration to their opinions.

____________________

joethedummer:

must suck to be a piece of boomcrap!

just get ready to slice up your pie boomy and spread the wealth! hahahah

____________________



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