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US: Obama 53, McCain 39 (CBS/NYT 10/10-13)

Topics: PHome

CBS News/New York Times
10/10-13/08; 972 Registered voters, MOE +/-3%; 699 "effective likely voters,*"
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(CBS election story, election results, economy story, economy results; NY Times story, results, methodology)

National
Likely Voters:
Obama 53, McCain 39
(10/5: Obama 48, McCain 45)


*From the CBS Release: "*Every registered voter is included in the likely voter model, and is assigned a probability of voting, which is used to calculate the likely voter results. The sum of these probabilities is the effective number of likely voters."

 

Comments
laguna_b:

So it is either 4% or 14%....I see , very accurate.

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Lechuguilla:

Consistent with my comments in the Zogby "tracking" poll, this CBS/NYT poll is just as valid, and perhaps more valid, than the Zogby or Rasmussen daily tracker.

CBS/NYT poll has a long, long history of Presidential polling. If anyone can accurately sample the current mood of the country, it would be these non-tracking polls that, in addition to this one, also include the NBC/WSJ poll, and the ABC/Post poll.

Lech

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JFactor:

The actual Obama lead is not likely this big but numbers like these three weeks before the election are still very bad news for McCain. It's clear now that Obama is at least +5 and that's a very conservative estimate.
_________________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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boomshak:

@Lechuguilla:

Consistent with my comments in the Zogby "tracking" poll, this CBS/NYT poll is just as valid, and perhaps more valid, than the Zogby or Rasmussen daily tracker.

Name for me two media organziation more 100% in the tank for Obama than CBS News and NYTimes? Can't? I know, neither can I.

Since these organizations are not actually pollsters and don't get paid to do polls, what risk is there to them in creating a bogus poll with which they can lead their news cycle and which so clearly follows their political meme?

This is a 4-5 point race right now. McCain has run a dog sh*t campaign, but he can still run a good campaign the last 3 weeks and people will forget the prior 3 months.

CONCLUSION:
I actually love polls like this. It makes the moonbats feel like it's in the bag. What Independent who thinks Obama is winning by 14 points will go to the polls and stand in line for 5 hours to vote?

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jonny87:

daily kos 52 obama, 41 mac
sun(+11) mon (+10) tues (+12)

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maddiekat:

boomcrap

Name any two polsters more in the tank for McCain then Zogby and Rasmussen? I actually love polls like those because it gives morons like you the irrational thought that you have a chance. Also your right if you take every poll that Obama polls the lowest on, and ignore every poll Obama polls better on it is a 4 to 5 point lead. That is called cherry picking boobshak.

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H2OPlus:

File this under: MSM isn't biased - just trying to find news that sells.

From the Baltimore Sun . . .

>>McCain's younger brother was sharply critical of unnamed top campaign officials who "so tightly 'control the message'" that they are preventing reporters from speaking with those, like himself, who know the candidate best. His complaint echoed those of other McCain intimates who have chafed for months at orders not to speak with the news media without advance permission from the campaign.

The younger McCain called this news management strategy "counter-intuitive, counter-experiential, and counter-productive" because it conflicts with his brother's reputation for openness. The clampdown "has gradually bled away all the good will that this great man had from the press," he wrote.>>

While many like to contend a bias in the media, it's all a matter of how you define liberal and conservative when you do your study.

Bottom line, you must handle them right. McCain hasn't. If someone makes his living from reporting the news, the surest way to tick him off is to make sure he can't do his job. McCain and Palin have avoided the news agencies. So, they have ticked them off. Do you really believe they are going report him "fairly."

Contrast this to Obama/Biden who freely give press conferences and interviews at every stop they make. Is it no wonder they are enjoying better coverage?

Apparently, McCain's younger brother, Joe, believes that too.

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Grummy1971:

Boomshak

I don't think you are real, but a comedy pastiche of a rightwing Republican with randomly generated stock answers.

The poll is completely legit, and is only 'in the tank' in as much as it doesn't give the answer you want. Grow up.

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Lappel1:

Because the right wing media is constitutively incapable of impartiality, right wingers assume that non-right wing media are also incapable of it.

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Hoosier:

To quote the late and much-missed Ann Richards:

Stick a fork in him 'cause he's DONE!!!!

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NorthernObserver:

LA Times/Bloomberg 10/10 - 10/13 1030 LV Obama 50 McMain 41

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carl29:

boomshak,

I know that you don't like CBS/NYTimes polls, those liberal polls. However, in 2004, CBS/NYTimes was very FAVORABLE to your guy then, W.

In 2004:

CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28 - 10/30
Bush 50% Kerry 47% Bush +3

CBS/NYT (561 LV) 10/1 - 10/3
Bush 48% Kerry 47% Bush +1

In 2004, CBS polls:

CBS News (678 LV) 10/14 - 10/17
Bush 47% Kerry 46% Bush +1

CBS News (760 LV) 10/9 - 10/11
Bush 47% Kerry 46% Bush +1

CBS News (931 LV) 9/20 - 9/22
Bush 50% Kerry 41% Bush +9

CBS News (1088 RV) 9/12 - 9/16
Bush 50% Kerry 42% Bush +8

CBS News (909 RV) 9/6 - 9/8
Bush 50% Kerry 42% Bush +8

That liberal Media, eh?

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Commander_King:

For god sakes...will someone finally ban Boomshak!!

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zotz:

Commander_King-
I'll do it.
Boomshak... You're banned!

Happy now?

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thoughtful:

Good Morning for Marctx & Boomshak also John McCain

This is about what I make it. +14% Obama.

The reasons are fairly obvious.

1. McCain is too old.
2. McCain had no strong message or definition - other than a continuation of war.
3. McCain/Palin Campaign abusing directly Obama created a negative when completely unsubstantiated or without credibility. ( Part 1 porno for kids legislation, Pigs & Lipstick; Part 2:"pallin round with terrorists" Ayers etc).
4. The economy is strong.
5. The Campaign is suspended.
6. $300 billion to buy mortgages at face to bail out the banks and the mortgagees.

It can't get that much wider than this

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oicu:


boomshak:

advancing conspiracy theories just shows what you really are. Can you really imagine these executives at CBS and NYT sitting around saying "Let's construct a poll to give Obama a boost." ? If you can then you're even nuttier than I thought. If NYT is not a journal to be respected, why was Palin quoting them as authoritative in the Ayers matter (albeit, she totally misprespresented what they said, as usual)?

Fox is 100% in the tank for McCain. I never see you objecting to their bias.

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CAmatters:

Yes - ban the troll. He has nothing intelligent or civil to say. He's just another angry NeoCon.

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Isher:

Leave Boom alone.

"I actually love polls like this. It makes the moonbats feel like it's in the bag. What Independent who thinks Obama is winning by 14 points will go to the polls and stand in line for 5 hours to vote?"

Lol, what independent who thinks Obama is winning by 14 points will go to the polls and stand in line for 5 hours to vote for McCain? What conservative, for that matter.

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mac7396:

Boomshak is still here? Shouldn't he and his neocon friends be making plans for Caribou Barbie's run at President in 2012. She'll be so much more qualified by then, what with 4 more years of defending Alaska air space from pesky Russian bombers.

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DTM:

For what it is worth, I view boomshak as harmless, because clearly he or she is only fooling him- or herself.

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

@mac7396

She'll be so much more qualified by then

You can learn a lot when you're impeached.

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raisethewhiteflag:

boomcrack lays cowering in the deep south as general lee's troops defect to the great north..

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Yellow Dog Democrat:

This poll has a fourteen poll spread, Zogby's done on the same dates has a four point spread. One of them has to an outlier doesn't it? Thats a hell of a difference.

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rami:

At this point, the republican party should consider to stop spending its money in the presidential race and instead focus its efforts on saving as much senate seats as possible.

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DTM:

@Yellow Dog Democrat

No, actually, neither has to be an "outlier". Keep in mind that methodological differences can explain substantial variances between polls (sometimes also known as "house effects"). In this case, you happen to be comparing two polls nearly on opposite ends of the methodological spectrum as far as house effects are concerned. And if you controlled for those house effects, I think you would find that these polls are within reasonable sampling error range of each other.

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m913:

Please do not ban boomshak. He is the only interesting thing going on here. (Otherwise it is all one-sided, "Yea for us", boring choir-preaching.)

And once in a while, he acknowledges some really cogent points. You just have to wait for the nuggets.

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Incumbent:

@m913

Yeah but who has that much time to wait?

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