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US: Obama 53, McCain 39 (Pew-10/16-19)

Topics: PHome

Pew Research Center
10/16-19/08; 2,599 RV, 2,382 LV - 2.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

National

Registered Voters
Obama 52, McCain 38

Likely Voters
Obama 53, McCain 39

 

Comments
C.S.Strowbridge:

What the ****?

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Mike:

What is clear is Obama has a lead. How big of one we'll have to wait until Nov 4 to understand, the state polls (and apparently PA only) being all that matters at this point.

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NW Patrick:

That's a HUGE sample compared to all other national polls.

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paradski:

Wow just wow!

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Knyght:

Yeah, this feels a tad far-fetched.

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lhtk:

This is acceptable. Yea, verily.

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MDB1974:

McCain, guess he was wrong about this surge

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mattn:

It's really clear how much the likely voter models are driving everything. It's probably too late at this point, but the good folks who run this website might want to consider a way to display these critical assumptions.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

I would love for this to be true, but I think at best Obama has a lead that is half of that.

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paradski:

big sample -- check
land lines and cell -- check
R-31 D-37 I-28 (D+6) -- check

me likey!

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political_junki:
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ucla54:

Not bad for a socialist...haaaaaaaaaaaa

Rock on Obama \ Biden 08!

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Flashlight:

**spits out coffee**


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kerrchdavis:

If this poll is accurate, I'm bumping up my election day party to this weekend.

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mysticlaker:

boomshak! boomshak!

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joethedummer:

wowwwwww blow outtttttttttttttttttttt!

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TuftsPat:

It is so odd to see a dark blue Virginia and a light blue Texas.

What's next? Yellow Texas?

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Michael:

It seems too big a lead for me, but the internals seem to line up, so I frankly don't know what to think other than it's on the high end of the normal distro (but that said, I think even an 11.5% lead is a bit much, but I'll take it :-) ).

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TuftsPat:

Excuse me, I meant a light blue North Carolina.

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Flashlight:

This poll feels like the first time I saw boobs.


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straight talk:

Remember the Gallup is showing that OBama is up +10 among RV voters and LV! I have said all along that LV is assuming that McCain can produce turnout similar to BUSH. But Kerry and BUsh was running neck and neck in this category of Registered Voters! This election will not be close! LANDSLIDE ALERT IS ON!

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joethedummer:

huge surge for obama and drop for mcsame on yahoo
http://www.yahoo.com/

biggest change I have seen in the last 3 weeks on there.

powell looks to have made a big a huge impact!

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mabs0:

Wow! Could this have anything to do with the fact that the polls includes cell phone only users in the sample? This single fact makes me think that, while an outlier, it might not be completely off.

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Mike A.:

This makes up for +1 Battleground.

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DTM:

As I noted below, we went through a brief period in which there was actually an unusually low amount of spread between the available polls. With both a D+1 and D+14 today, that period is obviously over.

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sunnymi:


I wonder on what basis Boomshak will reject this poll?

The headline says it all -
Growing Doubts About McCain's Judgment, Age and Campaign Conduct

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Chester:

@ flashlight:
ditto..
so what's the catch?
Boom, 1503, Alan, aren't there any naysayers out there to tell us how this poll is ****? C'mon!!

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paradski:

@flashlight

ROLFLMAO

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MDB1974:

Seriously though, as much as I love it. It has to be viewed as an outlier. If others follow it is ahead of the curve. If they don't (probably won't) it's an anomaly.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

If it's an outlier, then it cancels out outliers like today's GWU poll that had Obama +1.

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Nowukkers:

Right now McCain is saying to himself "Find a happy place find a happy place find a happy place"

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zotz:

RV numbers are almost the same as LV. This is different from what I am used to seeing. This is the second poll I've seen where RV numbers are nearly the same as LV. The first was Gallup.

Is this a new trend?

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Stonecreek:

Pew is pretty respectable and assiduously non-partisan. The internals are devastating for McCain. But this is not the worst news that John McCain could get. The worst news is that your campaign manager only looks at Rasputin and ARGhhhh and has decided to bet everything on Pennsylvania.

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mago:

Well, even if you don't believe Obama has a 13-point lead (surely he doesn't), a poll with a very large sample and reasonable demographics is more likely to be 4 points off than 8 points off, etc. It reinforces Gallup/R2K at the expense of Ras.

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Viperlord:

What the hell is going on with all of these crazy polls?

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Chester:

I don't think it's that much of an outlier. Gallup has O at +11 with RV's and it has a huge sample size. Can't figure out Ras...

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drdr:

Obama has increased his lead by 4 compared to previous Pew poll. Even if you don't think the topline number is accurate (and it is a huge sample) the trend is significant.

Very bad internal for McCain on Q5/6. Percent of RV who have decided NOT to vote for McCain has increased from 37% to 47% since August. Percent who have decided NOT to vote for Obama constant at 35%.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

@TuftsPat

Well, Hillary is in Omaha today...so nothing is truly unlikely anymore.

Texas will be yellow in 2012 if Obama wins and has a successful first term. The state is beginning to a shift to blue that is in it's infancy but is very reminiscent of post-Reagan California.

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1magine:

Lines up with the Gallup, R2000 and CBS polls nicely.

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cinnamonape:

PEW...isn't that a "three letter poll". Therefore reject...unless it's GWU of course ;-)

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freedomreigns:

This is certainly on the high-end of accurate. But it is NOT an outlier. That is very odd.

Realistically, it is probably +5 to +8 for Obama depending on turnout.

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fed:

Ras is the outlier. He needs to keep Obama´s numbers low for his friends at Fox news

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JCK:

Crazy margin, but Obama's support is not unreasonable at 53%. Certainly a little on the high side, but not excessive.

McCain's support at 39% is almost impossible to believe.

I think they must not be pushing leaners very hard, and, with the soft McCain support, you'd see his number in the 42-46% range.

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straight talk:

People I am in TEXas where Hillary will be down here soon! AA and hispanics are a big segment of the popolation of the state! IF they show up at the polls. McCain will be very stunned! If I was McCain do not assume Tx is not vulnurable! Pollsters are assuming that this state is a 30+ blowout! McCain don't sleep on OBamamania down here!

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Thatcher:

GOP Rep.: ‘Liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God’ (and no, it's not Bachman - its a NC Rep)
http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/1008/GOP_Rep_Liberals_Hate_Real_Americans_That_Work_And_Achieve_And_Believe_In_God.html?showall

Wisconsin GOP Official Denounces McCain Robocalls, Endorses Obama
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/21/wisconsin-gop-official-de_n_136573.html

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jamesia:

That is a huge sample and a tiny margin of error.

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drdr:

Still two weeks out, but some pollster is going to be very embarrassed on election day if the national polls don't start to converge.

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TuftsPat:

Why does Pollster have Washington, Minnesota, and New Hampshire as likely Dem but Virginia as strong Dem? Doesn't seem kosher to me.

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Jeff:

Pew was very accurate in 2004 when a lot of other pollsters were way off the mark. Also very accurate in 2000 but so were most of the other national polls.

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TuftsPat:

Maybe Pew and Gallup, being very nonpartisan, are the ones telling us the truth. Maybe polls like Ras (FoxNews) and the other polls tied to major news outlets are being pressured to make this race appear close to boost viewership for election day. Just a thought.

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lhtk:

Significant: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/21/us/politics/21poll.html?_r=1&nl=pol&emc=pola1&oref=slogin

"Obama Appeal Rises in Poll; No Gains for McCain Ticket

As voters have gotten to know Senator Barack Obama, they have warmed up to him, with more than half, 53 percent, now saying they have a favorable impression of him and 33 percent saying they have an unfavorable view. But as voters have gotten to know Senator John McCain, they have not warmed, with only 36 percent of voters saying they view him favorably while 45 percent view him unfavorably."

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Louis:

While I think the MCCain number is clearly low the Obama number seems about right. but we will just have to wait and see.
If some one put a gun to my head and made me predict today. I would say Obama 52% Macain 47% 1% other. that should be enough for about 310+ in the electoral college. Virgina, North Carolina, Colorado, Missouri Obama. Ohio, Florida, Nevada to close to call.

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adocarbog:

Look at Racial cross tabs in this poll
White 81% (way too many)
Black 10% Should be 13% this year at least)
Hispanic and other only 9%


2004 exit polls
White 77%
AA 12%
Hispanic 8%
Other 3%

and this year look for white under 75% due to AA increase and hispanis and minority increase.

WOW 14% lead in a whiteout poll for Obama. Also +15% Obama in battleground states on a good sample of 1011 RV

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PA-John:

@TuftsPat

Virginia has been getting polled heavily the last 2 weeks and has shown huge leads for Obama. the other states haven't been polled as much, or in the case of Minnesota had a few closer polls. Pollster is all based on numbers and trends so it needs the data to support wheter it leans or goes solid.

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Northeastern Republican:

great so the polling today puts obama up by anywhere from + 1 to +14. today was a great day for the polls. hopefully by the end of the week we'll see some more convergence like yesterday.

in regards to whether this specific obama number is right or not we shall see. its worth pointing out that no democrat has won the white house in over 40 years by such a large margin. in fact, jimmy carter is the only liberal to win the white house with 50% of the national vote - and even that was JUST over 50% of the national vote. we shall see whether obama busts through that 50% threshold. if he does it looks like the argument worked that he is a moderate and not a leftist.

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RussTC3:

Take today's best Obama result (+14) with his weakest (+1), average them together and you pretty much have what is likely the current state of the race:

Obama +7.5

There is now no doubt that of the seven daily trackers (+1 non-daily tracker in GWU), Gallup, R2K, ABC/Washington Post, Zogby and Hotline are more in line with the actual state of the rest while GWU and Rasmussen are a little off. I'm sure they'll reverse course somewhat over the coming days.

Regardless, I'll remain happy as long as Obama can stay about the 50% mark and be about 3-5 points ahead of McCain by the time November 4th comes around.

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Batony:

This is interesting:

"Sarah Palin, the candidate for vice president who was criticized by the media for not being accessible, has evolved into the most accessible of all four candidates for the White House this year. Especially Senator Joe Biden and Sen. Barack Obama are considerably less accessible to members of the media; the former has not given a press conference in more than a month.

Palin, on the other hand, has given three press conferences in the last two days alone, CBS News reported Tuesday.

Obama, the Democratic nominee for president has not ‘taken questions from his full traveling press corps since the end of September,’ and John McCain, the leader on the Republican ticket, not since September 23.

In her last press conference, Palin answered fourteen questions. It took her press secretary three attempts to get Palin to move on, and to start campaigning rather than talking to journalists. This stands in stark contrast to Barack Obama’s blurp a couple of months ago that members of the press should stop asking questions for he had already answered four .

Not only does she talk frequently to the press, CBS makes clear she even seems to enjoy herself when she interacts with the press corps. Additionally, she is increasingly impressing journalists with her knowledge on a wide array of issues, CBS said.

During these press conferences, the woman who is supposed to be a representative of the hardcore right-wing of the Republican Party criticized true hardcore Republicans on more than one occasions. In response to Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann’s suggestion, for instance, that ‘the media should investigate members of Congress who may hold “un-American” views,’ Palin said: “Well, that’s quite subjective. I would think that anyone running and wanting to serve in Congress is quite pro-America. You know, that is the mission, to better this country. So I would question what the intent of that would be.”

Meanwhile, American journalists have yet to present voters with a more nuanced picture of Palin than they presented in the first few weeks after she joined the Republican ticket. "

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DCDemocrat:

Stephanopolous says that McCain is giving up on New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

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modrat:

IT sure seems that there is momentum for Obama after a short McCain bounce. I think this does have something to do with the bottom falling out of the Republican party. My guess is a decrease in McCain's percentage and thus an increase in Obama's margin up to the election.

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Mark in LA:

@Flashlight:
"This poll feels like the first time I saw boobs."

That is one of the best lines I have ever read at Pollster.

Out my window: the sky is blue, the sun is shining, the polls are going my way, and I killed a 180 lb feral hog in our corn field this morning. It's a beautiful day!

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PJ_FFM:

@TuftsPat

Because the *processed* data results in

VA
O+8.9
WA
O+7.5
MN
O+6.9
NH
O+6.6

This again is due to a lack of new polls in the latter three states that would show a bigger spread, whereas for Virginia these polls exist at the moment.

Maybe simply the "wrong" polling institutes/firms are in the field in these particular states, resulting in some firms which are more interested in, ahem, I mean, which by some strange coincidence happen to show smaller margins, perhaps by displaying more or less "weighted" results than the other firms, happen to prefer to hit WA/MN/NH, with those who have a built in, I mean, purely coincidental advantage for Obama polling heaviliy in VA, because for a Democrat, winning in VA for the first time since 1964 is like... uhm.... Jamaica winning a medal in the Winter Olympics?

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Viperlord:

It's been very easy to equate leftists with communism and America's enemies is part of the lack of success for Dems in the past few decades, and Carter's Presidency has been effectively demonized as a reason Democrats shouldn't be elected. Those old tactics are losing their potency though, with the total failure of the Right over the last 8 years.

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JedRothwell:

Perhaps we are seeing the Bradley effect here. Pew used "Live Telephone" interviews. Most polls nowadays use computer voice with telephone keypad responses. If people are going to lie about their preference to be politically correct (i.e., the Bradley effect) they are more likely to do that with a live human than a computer+keypad.

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TuftsPat:

@DCDemocrat:

"Stephanopolous says that McCain is giving up on New Hampshire and Wisconsin."

As he should. Those races are over. The workers will probably head straight to Pennsylvania.

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alankeyesisawesome:

Another article EXPOSING the fact that Barack HUSSEIN Obama is supported by Muslims IN OUR OWN BACKYARD.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/21/muslim.voter.involvement/

Remember, these are members of the same religion as the suicide bombers in Israel, or that were responsible for 9/11.

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zotz:

Batony-
You are ignoring the fact that Obama and McCain have done three 90 min. debates and that in her debate Palin recited rehearsed talking points and several times dodged questions.

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Mike A.:

Any other polls scheduled for release today?

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Holy Toldeo!

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Louis:

The pew poll for approx. same period in 2004 election Kerry 45% Bush 45%. So there maight be a one or two democratic bias here but not enough to change the results.

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Louis:

This poll had a couple point Democratic bias in 2004 but not enough to invalidate the numbers.

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Northeastern Republican:

IBD/TIPP has it Obama +6 today. Not sure if they are right or not but its worth pointing out that they were the most accurate pollster supposidly in 2004. It probably shouldn't be taken lightly. I think I like the idea of an Obama 5-8 point lead nationally. These 1's, 4's, 10's and 14's just seem out of whack especially considering that the race has been pretty stable the last several days right around 6 or 7 points. Nothing substantial has happened to shake the race up - and I don't think who Colin is voting for will cause that huge a shift in the popular vote.

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zotz:

alankeyesisawesome-
I keep thinking that you say things like that because of a warped sense of humor. But others insist that you are serious. Either way you, like your hero, are a nutcase.

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alan,
Yea and Timothy McVeigh was a Christian, so what? Take a lesson from what Gen. Powell says. Stop the hate.

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bill kapra:

anyone have ibd/tipp yet?

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billwy:

I posted this earlier: if you look at Bush 2004 vote totals and pollster's projections the only state McCain is doing better in only Arizona +3. He has lost 20 points in ND and IN. 10 in WI, MN, MI. And contrary to what some people continually post on here, McCain's supposed bounce is not coming from deep red states where he is doing much wors than Bush did in some cases, and marginally worse in all but Az.

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Hope Reborn:

Pew's Final 2004 poll was Dead On, the most accurate of all. And it's polls leading up to the election were consistent...

This poll confirms Gallup, and the two stand out as the only organizaitons attempting to get Cell phones included...

it's the kids folks. Good night and good luck

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RussTC3:

Mike A. said:


Any other polls scheduled for release today?

At least two more, Mike. The IBD/TIPP tracking poll (which should be released any minute now) and the ABC/Washington Post tracking poll (which releases after 5pm).

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mirrorball:

Perhaps we are seeing the Bradley effect here.

I'm very skeptical that a Bradley effect even exists today, more than 25 years later. I won't go into all the detail, but I think Fivethirtyeight and Pollster have addressed the topic fairly well.

Sen. Chuck Schumer and John Ensign spoke at the National Press Club this morning and the issue of polling accuracy came up. Both conceded it's not perfect, and Schumer said he doesn't think there's a Bradley effect anymore, citing the polling during the race two years ago between Bob Corker and Harold Ford in Tennessee. He said their polling a week out matched the end result, with Ford losing something like 51-48.

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alankeyesisawesome:

@Working Class

But McVeigh only killed 168. 3000 died in the WTC bombings. That is about 18 times as many, meaning that Muslims are 18 times as likely to be violent than Christians.

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mirrorball:

I should add: 1) I don't necessarily believe that Obama is up by 14 pts, Bradley effect or not; and 2) For the one person on here who may not know, Schumer and Ensign are the heads of the respective parties national Senate campaign efforts.

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NW Patrick:

Northeastern Republican I'll give a BUTT to your point. We've never had a BUSH presidency before EITHER!

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Commander_King:

Yep...McCain is ditching New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Interesting.

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pion:

@Zotz:

More precisely, Obama has participated in 28 debates while McCain has been in 19 since April 26th 2007.

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political_junki:

Rassmussen has published Governor race results in WV, does it mean they are gonna publish presidential race results at 5ET?

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Mike A.:

Thanks Russ :)

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RussTC3:

Northeastern Republican
Where did you see the Obama +6 result for IBD/TIPP? I still only see the 10/20 numbers.

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NW Patrick:

alankeyesisawesome be gone. Your as irrelevant as John McCain and Sarah Palin. Adios!;)

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political_junki:
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Thatcher:

@alankeysisawesome:

McVeigh was 1 guy ... the WTC attack was 19 ... so each attacker was responsible for 158 deaths. So, McVeigh was a more violent killer, per capita.

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mandalorianarmy:

Maybe the big swing is the assault by Republicans on all of those who don't agree with them. Need evidence?

http://www.xomba.com/new_republican_attack_if_you_don_t_agree_them_you_must_hate_america

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jlm9:

Apparently someone in the McCain camp flunked High School Am Gov. He is backing himself into an increasingly smaller and smaller corner - If he pulls out of New Hampshire and Wisconsin logic says he should do the same in VA. That means he would have to clean sweep NC, OH, PA, NV, FL, MO. Any one of those states goes blue and hes done. Once again McCain fails to counter the genius behind the Obama Campaign. Even if you don't like him for president you have to see that this is one of the best campaigns strategically in history. Watch for Obama to use his abundance of money to reopen GA, ND and MT - make McCain spend there rather then attack in PA

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alankeyesisawesome:

@Thatcher

What about Tim Nichols? McVeigh was not acting alone. So still only 1/2 as likely AT BEST.

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OGLiberal:

Rasmussen WV:

M - 52 (+2)
O - 43 (+1)

O well....

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NW Patrick:

Id like to invite everyone here to email: questions@pollster.com to get alankeyesisawesome kicked from this site. The muslim stuff has gotta go. I've had people kicked before. We just gotta email. DO IT.

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NW Patrick:

alankeyesisawesome HOW DOES IT MAKE YOU FEEL THAT YOUR MESSIAH GEORGE BUSH HAS TIES to the Bin Laden family going back 20 + years, even having them to the Crawford ranch? Waiting on your response.

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Babbit:

@alankeyes: It was the FL Muslim block vote that put W. into office in 2000. Muslim religious values are much more aligned with the religious-right than the dems. That said, Obama has been a beacon of hope for all Americans - including Muslim-Americans.

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RussTC3:

Probably still worth it to advertise in WV, just so they can reach some of the more rural parts of outlying states.

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Thatcher:

@JedRothwell:

Perhaps we are seeing what will become known as the "yard sign" effect. Meaning that in more traditionally right-leaning demographics - people to their friends are appearing for McCain (to stay in with their friends) - but in reality support Obama and say so to pollsters and vote for Obama at the polls.

Of course, I am being facetious ... because, despite the fondness for the "bradley effect", even Bradley's pollster has stated time and again there was no such thing. all their polls had the race within the margin of error.

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Viperlord:

That address is invalid for me, and I can't get the accursed report function to work either.

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Stonecreek:

@ billwy

I think you're on to something. If you remember that Bush only got about 1%-2% more popular vote than Kerry, then you look at how far behind Bush that McCain is running state for state, it certainly supports the 53-39 split reported by Pew as accurate.

@ mark in LA

You're a man of my own heart. Killing a 180 pound hog in your corn field is about as good as it gets. If you've never seen the movie "Razorback", I strongly suggest you rent it. The crusty old Australian protagonist opines to the goody-two-shoes American woman who questions why he kills hogs says "Oh, I dunno, there's something about blastin' th' **** out of a hog that just brightens up me whole day".

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NW Patrick:

I've been to Real Virginia and communist VA, both nice parts of the country. I just watched a palin video stating that REAL AMERICA "grows our food." Did she know that 70% of US agriculture comes from, you betcha, CALIFORNIA. Real America?:) LOL What a windbag.

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Flashlight:

@NWPatrick

I, for one, enjoy alankeyesisawesome's posts and his back and forth with Thatcher. I would prefer it if he stayed.

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truthcomb:

GWU/Battleground cooking numbers?

All-
My first post on here, after 5 years reading Pollster. The Battleground poll goarded me into commenting.

Am I the only one spotting something odd with the poll? From their internals:

On page 13, without leaners-
O 47 - M 40

On page 15, with leaners-
O 49 - M 43

http://www.tarrance.com/files/GWU-BG-Public-tables-10.16.pdf

So, from where did Battleground get O 48 - M 47??

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alankeyesisawesome:

@NW Patrick

Typical liberal behavior from you...you cannot argue with the facts that I am making since you lack the intellectual capacity to, so you instead try to get me banned. Why are you so chicken? Are you afraid that your arguments may be inherently flawed?

Also, with regards to Bush, we are talking about McCain v. Obama here. McCain is not Bush, and if Obama was running against Bush, he should have done so 4 years ago.

Owned.

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DEANintheYAY:

So is it just a coincidence that over the last week or so that ALL of the BIG numbers for Obama come from firms that include cell phones? Gallup, CBS/NY Times, ABC/WashPost, and now Gallup?

What does this tell us about state polling?

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NW Patrick:

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Nine
Posted: Tuesday, October 21, 2008 4:30 PM PT


Obama's lead has widened a bit more as independents break his way and McCain still can't get traction among GOP strongholds. Independents, who were split on the two candidates a week ago, now back Obama by 7 points. But 22% remain undecided. McCain still can't pull more than 65% of conservatives, in contrast with the 85% support Obama enjoys from his liberal base. Neither can he get more than 41% of married women, and investors are back in the Obama column.

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Viperlord:

I think most of us, me included, are sick of the hate he spews towards everyone who disagrees with him.

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OGLiberal:

I don't want to ruin the fun but I think it's pretty clear that alankeyesisawesome (and I'm not talking about the blatant imposter, alankeysisawesome) is a parody of a wingnut. He won't admit it but he is. I mean, nobody is that obvious and that over the top.

I have to admit - because I know he's not serious - his posts are both funny and scary. Funny because they are so over the top (a la Colbert), scary because what he's writing here is exactly what you'd hear discussed amongst folks waiting on line at a McCain-Palin rally.

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Michael:

"Remember, these are members of the same religion as the suicide bombers in Israel, or that were responsible for 9/11."

And alankeyesisawesome wins the prize for the most dispicable, distasteful, illogical remark of the day.

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pion:

It's pretty obvious that alankeyesisawesome is a comedian...

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kerrchdavis:
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Working Class:

Patrick,
Palin has proved she's a know nothing. Also, Iowa and Wisc. produce a lot of our food as well. Hmm there blue states. I guess she only buys corn from Neb. and steak from Texas.

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joethedummer:

I actually wanna here alankeys and boomcrack ater the election when they have to distribute thier wealth to us poor people, so no I dont want them banned!

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NW Patrick:

Wow Obama up another point in the latest IBD/TIPP, Booms MOST ACCURATE pollster. This McCain surge is really fun to watch!

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Rames1980:

This poll can't be squared with the GWU one. Just assessing roughly that both Obama's and McCain's support is narrowly compatible with the MoEs, the probability that these two polls measure the same variable with just trandom noise is about 0.025^4 = 4/10 000 000. That's four chances in ten million! One or both of these pollsters are doing something wrong. Obvious candidates are cell phones and the party weighting, which I still can't figure out why pollsters do. Why just not ask who the people are going to vote for?!

(Obama here is at 53, in GWU he's at 48. The difference is 5 points whereas the sum of MoEs is 5.5, so there's (0.5*5%)^2 chance these match and a similar analysis holds for McCain's support level)

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Babbit:

@alan: An argument could be made that Obama actually did start running for President 4 years ago.

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Thatcher:

@truthcomb -

They don't have today's tables ... those are for the #'s released 10/16 ... sorry.

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GriffStep:

@NWPatrick,

Cmon, alankeyesisawesome is a pretty good imitation of Colbert imitating a right-wing hack. Enjoy the ride!

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RussTC3:

IBD/TIPP
Obama 46.9 (46.7)
McCain 40.9 (41.4)
Obama +0.2, McCain -0.5 = 0.7 Point Obama Swing

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Viperlord:

So he's a good imitation of a imitation?

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alankeyesisawesome:

@Babbit

Absolutely right...and remember, he just got into the senate 4 years ago. Before that, the only experience he has ever had has been in the Illinois State Senate. So we have a US Senate veteran of over 25 years running against a state senator/community organizer. WOW!!!!!

Obama is the most unqualified candidate in the history of the United States!

____________________

cinnamonape:

Jed~ The "Bradley Effect" mainly was specific to the "undecideds" (or in exit polls to the nonrespondants). People didn't out-and-out lie about supporting (or voting for) Bradley. Rather they declared themselves "still undecided", or refused to discuss their vote.

It turned out that between 2/3 to 3/4 of those undecided voters swung to Deukmejian. And that was about 10% of the electorate in California in 1982. Also Reagan came out to the Central Valley and Orange County in the final week. A popular President with boots on the ground enthused the Republicans and shifted enough of the independents.

If people are actually lying about supporting Obama...when they don't...that would be something different than the "Bradley Effect"

____________________

UpstateProgressive:

I think the key is polling cellphone-only users. Pew has done an extensive study cell users and found that while young voters favor Obama, young cell-only voters favor Obama by a much, much bigger margin. I believe Pew argues that not polling cell-only users in this election reduces Obama's margin by 2-3 points. Pollster.com has a good article on this.

So with Gallup and Pew polling cell-only users and the other ones not, the fact that this is a good deal higher than the other polls should not be surprising. As paradski says, this is a huge sample with a reasonable DEM/GOP differential. It could be that by polling cell-only voters, Pew has gotten it right.

This is a hard election year to poll, and we'll only know on election day, but it seems possible that most of the polls are under-counting the wave and if so, election day could be a very happy one for Democrats. Look of a lot of Congress-critters to sweep in on the blue tide, as well.

____________________

Thatcher:

@Rames1980 -

I think you know which one is wrong, for sure ... the one that swings 3-4 points in one day on a 4-5 day tracking poll.

____________________

mac7396:

It's easy to make an argument that McCain = Bush, since their policies are identical. 90% of the time voting the Bush way. It was convenient for McCain in getting the Republican nomination; he bragged that he did "everything in his power" to get Bush elected. Now, not so convenient. And BTW, thanks Sen. McCain for getting Bush elected. Things are just great (not).

____________________

Pat:

@alankeyesisawesome:

There were a bunch of Muslims at the McCain rally the other day. Does that mean McShame is a Mulsim terrorist? You are ignorant.

____________________

Northeastern Republican:

upstate - the argument works both ways though. of course young voters are always supposed to favor the democratic nominee. but if they always went to the polls, we should have had either presidents gore or kerry. yes im aware there is the argument that more youth is engaged this election than they were 4 years ago... but they were still rather engaged 4 years ago and didnt show up in the numbers democrats had hoped. nobody will know if they show up this time for sure until november 4th.

____________________

Mark in LA:

Stonycreek - I'll see if I can find the movie "Razorback". It sounds pretty interesting. Thanks for the note.

____________________

CaptainPatent:

While this is a statistical outlier, with other recent events it may be more on target than originally thought.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/21/early.voting/ Remember, high vote counts bode well for Obama and that's exactly what we're seeing right now.

Ann Seltzer may have had it right all along and many of the pollsters could be far underestimating the turnout of this election. All we can do though is wait and see.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@Pat

I think I've said this before, but I'll say this again...McCain is the only person in this race who has said that he is willing to bomb Iran. And I think this is long overdue.

____________________

m913:

@ mark in LA

A bit off topic, but--you have feral hogs in Los Angeles????

____________________

Viperlord:

Two other unqualified Presidents: Abraham Lincoln. Woodrow Wilson. Oh snap?

____________________

political_junki:

@alankeyesisawesome:
If you are a Democrat in disguise: GOOD JOB Dude :)
If you are for real : See a shrink!

____________________

truthcomb:

Thatcher:

Thanks for that. But, these are the tables shown on the website for 10/21 (http://www.tarrance.com/bg.cfm). Besides, there are no similar numbers on their graph trend.

Still confused.

____________________

Viperlord:

And Obama is probably more qualified than Wilson. Wilson was Governor of NJ for 2 years. Obama's been a Senator longer than that.

____________________

truthcomb:

Thatcher:

Thanks for that. But, these are the tables shown on the website for 10/21 (http://www.tarrance.com/bg.cfm). Besides, there are no similar numbers on their trend graph.

Still confused.

____________________

ericsp28:

Another note on the Battleground poll: They do not conduct polls on the weekends. With a 4 or 5 day track that means that it can't be compared to the other daily trackers on an apples to apples basis until late in the week. That is the only time it is a true daily tracker.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Qualification means NOTHING after the Palin pick. Good job McLame!

____________________

falcon79:

@ flashlight:
LMFAO!!!!
its for lines like these that I read the pollster blogs :)

____________________

Viperlord:

True Patrick, very true. There's more people living in a hour's drive from me than there are in her entire state. LOL.

____________________

mac7396:

alankeyesisawesome:
@Pat

I think I've said this before, but I'll say this again...McCain is the only person in this race who has said that he is willing to bomb Iran. And I think this is long overdue.

Posted on October 21, 2008 4:38 PM

In McCain's own words, "You don't say that. You don't say that you'll bomb another country. Alankeyesisawesome doesn't understand."

____________________

maddiekat:

The Battleground Poll has been an odd poll the entire race. If history repeats itself Obama will be up by around 8 by Thursday. Also it only give Dems a 3% party ID advantage.

____________________

NW Patrick:

My county has 750,000 people, the size of AK and I can drive from one end to the next in 30 min. LOL

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@mac7396

Well, of course he won't come right out and say he wants to bomb Iran, but I know, looking deep into his heart and soul...that he does...and that's a heartwarming feeling which makes me proud to be an American.

____________________

mrut:

Ooooo. NC has turned light blue since I last checked. These numbers for the national race--I don't dare believe them.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

CNN poll of polls just announced has Obama up 9 points. Do they not exclude polls like RCP does???

PEW poll is just Awesome news! Another great day all around for Obama.

Get out and VOTE EARLY if you can. The lines will be very long!! Be patient, and don't let them discourage you from being heard!

____________________

falcon79:

its lights out for John McShame.
Charlie Cook is a RIGHT-WING commentator:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/ot_20081021_3912.php

____________________

Rollin08:

lol alankeyesisawesome

____________________

NW Patrick:

alankeyesisawesome hehe that was a good one!

____________________

Working Class:

LOL Theres more people on the Las Vegas strip on any given day than there is in the state of Alaska. The cops that patrol LVB from Mandalay to the 'sphere see more action in a day than the entire Alaska Staties do in a year. Hell, Mayor Goodman has more experience than her.

____________________

Viperlord:

Bombing other countries because your too pigheaded to talk to them makes you proud of your country? LMAO.

____________________

alankeysisawesome:

I love ****ing with you folks. I'm a Southern democrat doing this for fun... I have a ton of time available to give to this site while at work, you know, I'm one of those highly efficient American workers.

____________________

Stonecreek:

Lance Tarrance is a Republican pollster who originated in Texas. He was customarily hired to produce numbers to help Republican candidates with fundraising. Believe me, Lance knows his business.

@ mark in LA

The reviews of "Razorback" call it "possibly the finest movie ever made about a giant, man-eating hog". You'll love the part where the hog is caught in a trap which is chained to a house and he pulls the house in half escaping.

____________________

Viperlord:

And I know plenty of people with more foreign policy experience.

____________________

alankeysisawesome:

Don't get offended by me. I'm just having fun to show you guys the stupidity of people in my state, Alabama.

____________________

Viperlord:

Oh yay! The parody of the parody of the parody is here!

____________________

Working Class:

falcon,
Great link thanks -what I find disturbing though is how many Republicans are hoping for some cataclysmic event.

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

@Viperlord

Well, talk takes time...and we know that Iran is developing nuclear weapons at this very moment. Assuming we start bombing now, this is the only way we can stay ahead of the game. Maybe we can give Ahnamenajad, or however you spell his name, 1 week to step down and surrender himself for extradition. But if that's not successful, the bombs need to be raining down on Tehran. This is the only way that we can protect Israel, so if you don't support this, you are just encouraging a second holocaust.

____________________

IWillWorkHarder:

Again, note the difference between alankeys and alankeyes

____________________

cinnamonape:

Something about the "ground game" (or "end game" if you prefer chess metaphors).

McCain had $47 million left of his ($84 million Presidential Fund) at the START of October. Obama had $137 million at that point....and appeared to be fundraising at his September rate ($150 million)...so would have an amazing $287 million to spend throughout October. That's a SIX time advantage!!!

Now lets look at their September expenditures. McCain spent $37 million of his $84 million (45%). And Obama spent about 2.35 times as much. So Obama certainly spent more...but he placed almost a dozen Red States into the Blue and "maroon". He solidified his "Kerry" states. McCain got nothing.

This is the quandary that the McCain campaign faces. They can go with cheap irritating "Robo-Calls"...Obama can use live callers. He can try to win the one "Blue State" with enough electoral votes to counteract Obama's wins elsewhere, and pray that a lack of funding elsewhere won't make a difference- that the Republican base, and some independents will come out just like they did for Bush.
But he's likely going to pump 75% of his remaining resources into Pennsylvania.

Obama has a huge amount of money for GOTV and GOTV support. He can swing through the back door...and still challenge in Pennsylvania.

The only way I think the Republicans can win this one is through a massive infusion of illegal contributions, voter intimidation and voter machine fraud. So hang on for the ride.

____________________

Viperlord:

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO

____________________

sunnymi:


SurveyUSA - North Carolina
Obama - 47
McCain - 47

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=73cdcb54-f808-4353-adb7-2fd69b8e66aa

Notes:
1. Dems have only a +5 advantage in this poll (as per registration they are +13)
2. McCain gets 10% of AA vote which seems unlikely as well.

____________________

angrytoxicologist:

Whether or not alankeyesisawesome is a parody of a wing nut or not, he should be kicked.

One, the muslim stuff isn't funny either way.
Two, if it's a parody of wing-nuts, I don't want to hear it either. It's invective that has no place here no matter who it's towards.

____________________

boomshak:

Geesh. 14 point lead for Obama?

Rasmussen, the #1 pollster in America (even according to FiveThirtyEight.com) says this is a 4 point race.

This is just embarassing.

I am surprised they even published this. This poll is almost 4 times as large as the Rasmussen Lead and is twice as large as the Gallup lead.

Rediculous.

____________________

IWillWorkHarder:

And btw, alankeyEs, you're getting better at this.

____________________

green baby green:

This is a non-partisan poll that actually uses cell phones in their sample. I am a white married male, 49 in CA, owns a house and does NOT get counted in traditional polling. My wife and I are both huge Obama supporters and I know there are alot more out the than Rasmussen thinks...and yes, he wants the race to be close for advertising and the fast that he is a rightie and doesn't want this thing to get away too soon...don't be surprised to see his poll numbers go way up for Obama a day or two before the election so he he crow about how close he was to predicting Obama's 10% point win!

____________________

1503er:

According to the latest polls, it looks like Prop. 8 will pass in California :( :(

Yay, now I can be from the only state in the country to write discrimination and taking away people's rights into its Constitution.

____________________

alankeysisawesome:

alankeyesisawesome could you tell me, alankeysisawesome where we have PROOF of Iran developing Nuclear weapons. I'll wait for it. Be careful man, we Republicans ****ed up big time assuming Iraq had 'em and look what we got. A country hungry for socialism, a dem Senate, house, and now president!

____________________

Stonecreek:

Just talked to my wife who has been standing at the early voting place since early this morning waving an Obama sign. This is in a small exurban/rural TEXAS town. She says that the crowds have been incredible, with a 2 1/2 hour wait. She reports the majority of voters have appeared friendly toward the Obama placard-holders. Let me assure you, these folks aren't lined up for 2 1/2 hours to vote in the Constable's race. Turnout is unprecedented, and appears to be largely driven by the Obama GOTV effort.

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak, look at the internals and weep.
This poll has a large sample and low MOE, reasonable party ID.
PEW was more accurate than Rasmussen in predicting the final margin in both 2000 and 2004.

____________________

Viperlord:

That discrimination bill is passing? Please tell me your kidding.

____________________

alankeysisawesome:

BOOM we're ****ed. Why don't we go campaign for McCain to actually HELP OUT.

____________________

boomshak:

OOPS, INTERNAL OBAMA POLL SHOWS PA LEAD ONLY 2!

Maybe THIS is why McCain is campaigning so hard in PA?

"Apparently, Obama's internals were leaked to a radio talk show host in Scranton. they show Obama up by only 2 in PA.
Steve Corbett, a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, accidentally received a copy of an internal email sent by Grant Olin who heads the Wilkes-Barre headquarters of the Obama campaign. The email went to 627 Obama campaign volunteers in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton region, saying that Obama Headquarters reported an internal poll which shows that Obama is only 2 points up in Pennsylvania.

Sean Smith, who is heading Obama’s Pennsylvania campaign, was interviewed by Steve Corbett via phone at 5:35 today to discuss this. He said that Grant "went rogue", and aknowledged that Grant was "reprimanded" for this.

...

This is important because, if it is true, it undermines the argument that we have a substantial partyId advantage this year.

A partyId of at least +6 this year seems reasonable, as many pollsters are showing. Many rightwingers are arguing that the breakdown should be a push, like 2004, which is ridiculous. However the rumor of +2 in PA reinforces their argument. And that's the last hope they have left.

We need to get on this story as soon as possible before it spreads any further. I don't want them to have any hope left, Let's crush their spirits!

____________________

webim:

latest PALIN comment from FRANCE ;)


http://www.ilovepolitics.info/

____________________

1503er:

@Viperlord

Yes it is! Can you believe it?

http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=California_Proposition_8_(2008)

You can see the polling data if you scroll down.

I can't say I'm surprised though. I see literally dozens and dozen of YES ON 8 signs just on my drive to and from work.

People suck.

____________________

boomshak:

@sunnymi:

Your an IDIOT if you buy this steaming pile. As always look to Rasmussen.

____________________

Viperlord:

And let's remember that the Iranian leader (I refuse on general principle to try and spell that bloody name) is not popular, indeed, most of his people dislike him intently, and he's just a figurehead for the Ayatollah anyway. All a attack on Iran would do is unify them. Plus the fact we don't have the manpower for any invasion of Iran while tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Plus the minor fact they know they'll be nuked into oblivion if they actually use a nuke on anyone.

Wait, why am I bringing facts and reason in here?

____________________

alankeysisawesome:

1503er aren't you a republican like me? Since when did you care about taking away people's rights for anything?

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

boomshack, gosh darn it, how did McCampaign respond to your killer idea? C'mon, out with it, son!

@kerrchdavis,
My hat is off to you on creating this alankeyes character. I know it's you, and...well, I sit here in hushed admiration at your comical genius. Kerrch, my virtual hat is off to you, sir!

____________________

Viperlord:

Damn, that's pretty repulsive. Discrimination being made legal equals fail.

____________________

sunnymi:

@boomshak, you said "@sunnymi:
Your an IDIOT if you buy this steaming pile. As always look to Rasmussen."

You can use any expletive you wish but that will not change the race. Rasmussen is going to get closer to the others or be left behind. There is no way it is a 4-point race right now.

____________________

maddiekat:

boom****

I see you just got done with your shift at Walmart and now you are picking your pollster of the day.

____________________

Commander_King:

Boom you are insane...this is one of several polls showing us with a commanding lead.

____________________

alankeysisawesome:

Boom how do campaigns get these "internals" and how come none of the pollsters have ever figured out their secret methods in 100 years?

____________________

1503er:

@boomshak

Those internals don't surprise me one bit. I've said all along that Obama's lead isn't anywhere near these numbers. I think Obama is actually going to lose this election and it will be the 'shock' of the century.

Pollsters have been weighting and giving too much advantage to Democrats in their data. Just way too much. Why anyone believed that Republican enthusiasm was that depressed is beyond me. They ought to come out here to Socal and see how not depressed it is. There's McCain Palin signs everywhere.

____________________

sunnymi:


ABC/Washington Post Daily Tracking Poll
First-Time Voters Go Big for Obama; Economic Worries Drag on McCain

Obama Continues to Lead 53-44

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=6079714&page=1

____________________

Batony:

SurveyUSA:

North Carolina:

Obama 47%
McCain 47%

Hagan 46%
Dole 45%

McCrory 47%
Perdue 46%

Obama has to be 5 to 6 points ahead to pull that off.

McCain is in NH tomorrow, he is not pulling out NH. He is scaling back in NH and WIS.

____________________

Viperlord:

And the Reality Denial Machine starts spinning again.....

____________________

falcon79:

@workign class:
np brother
great commentary from a conservative pundit, isn't it? and yes i agree how its scary how many rethugs are hoping for something horrible to happen to our country just so they can win.. what a bunch of anti-americans!!!
lol
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/ot_20081021_3912.php

____________________

alankeysisawesome:

I think all pollsters should ask the campaigns over the past 100 years how they get their INTERNALS. Internals are amazing as they are the REAL state of the race, everyone else has it wrong and we WILL WIN NOW!

____________________

1503er:

@Viperlord

Yes, it's very sickening and sad.

@alan

No, for the millionth time, no, I'm not a Republican.

____________________

Stonecreek:

ABC-WaPo tracker is out: 52-42 RV, 53-44 LV

____________________

sunnymi:

Boomshak & 1503er: Most pollsters do not weight party ID....they use the demographic weight and then let the party ID fall where it may. This is why you polls from the same organization showing different party IDs in each poll they release for the same state.

____________________

Batony:

Sorry:

SurveyUSA
Gov:

McCrory: 46%
Perdue: 43%

____________________

political_junki:

@boomshak: Yor posts are getting less and less fun man, whats up? We need more juice! Socialist, Terrorist, Communist, what happened to these words? These are the stuff that we digg, they are why we come here.
Obama is a socialist who has been allies with terrorists since 1995 but the communist MSM wants to cover it up. But Obama and his rouge liberal friends and the three headed monster of (Pelosi Reed Obama) will be DESTROYED next time I go to his rally and ask him about his tax policy. DESTROYED!

____________________

Rames1980:

"INTERNAL OBAMA POLL SHOWS PA LEAD ONLY 2!"

Hey if you're going to make stuff up, why not use some more imagination, such as:

LEAKED MEMO DISCLOSES OBAMA INJECTED WITH EXPERIMENTAL HORMONE TO GRANT VAST POWERS FOR 4 YEARS!

(I know what I said about picking on Boomshak before, and I realize I'm doing it, but why not I do the other thing too ;)

____________________

Michael:

"Obama is the most unqualified candidate in the history of the United States!"

Second most unqualified, behind Abraham Lincoln...

____________________

political_junki:

Survery USA NC: O47 M 47:
Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll two weeks ago: McCain is down 2 points, Obama is up 1

____________________

Viperlord:

Don't forget Woodrow Wilson. He was definitely less qualified.

____________________

green baby green:

@ Boomshak:

I think you should go to Intrade and bet PA as well as the national race...If you really think JM has a chance you can clean up with lots of $$$...otherwise, your pothole only likes to talk about poll numbers that ever help JM...If this Pew poll had JM even losing by 3%, you'd be crowing about how close the election has become - any you know you would!

____________________

straight talk:

Pennsylvania is not in play! YOu can spin how McCain is closing there! Obama will carry Penn by 6-7%. Why is McCain even going to NH! When he got bigger states to hold onto! Rassmesum had OBAMA UP 15 in the state! Plus BIDEN is from the State!

____________________

Thatcher:

@boomshak -

post a link about that "internal poll" story ... I just did a google news search and nothing popped up using the terms

obama pennsylvania internal

and that would be a HUGE news story since all the public polls are 8 to 10 higher than that

____________________

Stonecreek:

Insider Advantage has just posted a Colorado poll at +5 for Obama.

____________________

JedRothwell:

mirrorball wrote:

"I'm very skeptical that a Bradley effect even exists today, more than 25 years later. . . ."

I am a little skeptical of it, but my point is that if it does exist on a national basis, you would expect to see it come out in response to live humans calling more than in response to computer calls. People are more inclined to tell computers the truth. This has been shown in unrelated studies.

Some doubts have been raised about the original Bradley effect, but I am pretty sure it was real decades ago. Such behavior was fairly common back then. It was politically incorrect to be racist, so hypocritical racists covered up their views. The term "politically correct" had not been invented back then, as I recall, so perhaps I should say that overtly racism was considered gauche, or embarrassing, even by some of the racists.

____________________

BridgeportJoe:

Geesh. 14 point lead for Obama?

Rasmussen, the #1 pollster in America (even according to FiveThirtyEight.com) says this is a 4 point race.

Shorter bs: I can't find any problems with the sample size, the dates or the demo breakdown, so I'm going to reject it because I just don't like it.

____________________

gymble:

@1503er

Well, crap. I keep hoping that Prop 8 support will deteriorate. California politics are so messed up.

____________________

ticketstub:

Re Prop 8

The "Yes on Prop 8" campaign got innundated with otu of state cash, largely from Mormon groups. There's a huge imbalance of cash now, and unfortunately it benefits the "Lets make discrimination constitutional" crowd. That plus their effective TV ads have made the proposition closer to passing.

If anyone can spare a dime, I encourage you to donate to the No On 8 campaign. It would be disgusting if, under our watch, rights are TAKEN AWAY from people and discrimination is written into the state constitution.

No one has yet explained what will happen to all the gay and lesbian couples who are already married if this thing passes.

____________________

boomshak:

@Thatcher,

Oops, sorry about that. Here's the link:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/15/05041/703/752/630799

Rumor: Obama's internals in PA apparently leaked
by Oujdi

Tue Oct 14, 2008 at 09:50:41 PM PDT

Apparently, Obama's internals were leaked to a radio talk show host in Scranton. they show Obama up by only 2 in PA.

Steve Corbett, a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, accidentally received a copy of an internal email sent by Grant Olin who heads the Wilkes-Barre headquarters of the Obama campaign. The email went to 627 Obama campaign volunteers in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton region, saying that Obama Headquarters reported an internal poll which shows that Obama is only 2 points up in Pennsylvania.

Sean Smith, who is heading Obama’s Pennsylvania campaign, was interviewed by Steve Corbett via phone at 5:35 today to discuss this. He said that Grant "went rogue", and aknowledged that Grant was "reprimanded" for this.

Here is the audio of the interview:
http://audio.wilknewsradio.com/m/audio/21203046/corbett-speaks-with-sean-smith.htm

This has caught on like wildfire in the right wing blogs and seems to have raised their spirits.

This is important because, if it is true, it undermines the argument that we have a substantial partyId advantage this year.

A partyId of at least +6 this year seems reasonable, as many pollsters are showing. Many rightwingers are arguing that the breakdown should be a push, like 2004, which is ridiculous. However the rumor of +2 in PA reinforces their argument. And that's the last hope they have left.

We need to get on this story as soon as possible before it spreads any further. I don't want them to have any hope left, Let's crush their spirits!

I mean, it's a DailyKos Story and you can hear the radio interview yourself, so hard to blame this one on Karl Rove...

____________________

syrac818:

Boomshak,

I appreciate the role you play in keeping it lively on here. But dude, you've gotten to the point where you're posting a rumor that someone heard, from somebody else, that was apparently on a radio station, about a mysterious internal poll, that was somehow leaked to a talk radio host of all people, that shows Obama with a lead that's about 20% of all other polls, and there is no link to this story anywhere.

I mean, seriously?

____________________

boomshak:

IF THE ABOVE STORY IS TRUE...

This race is a HELL of a lot closer than we are being lead to believe...

____________________

syrac818:

Oh cool, thx for the link now. A little random to say the least, but I'll take it. So this mysterious internal poll was also over a week ago, I guess.

____________________

Ryguy:

i really do hope that mccain puts everything he has into PA. reach for the stars mccain. meanwhile we'll take missouri, nevada, virginia, colorado, new mexico, iowa, north carolina, and... oh what the hell we'll take PA while we're at it. you might be able to make it close though!

____________________

Incumbent:

RE: CA Prop 8

Yeah, the pro-discrimination side has raised about twice as much money as the anti-discrimination side, mostly from Utah Mormons as mentioned above. The pro side has been flooding the airwaves with unfortunately very effective ads claiming that the proposition will mean that churches will lose their tax-exempt status unless they preach "pro-homosexual" ideals and that schools will be required to teach lessons supporting the "homosexual agenda" to kids.

The latest ad I saw on TV last night has a husband and wife from Massachusettes (where gay marriage was legalized years ago) saying that they found out that their kid's school was making them read children's books featuring gay couples (i.e. - "King & King" instead of "King & Queen"). I can only imagine how terrifying this must be to even moderate voters.

In a nutshell, it looks like Prop 8 may well pass. Very sad. If anyone wants to donate money or time to try and turn this thing around:
http://www.noonprop8.com/

____________________

Ryguy:

oh did i leave out ohio and florida? yeah we may just take those too.

____________________

rita4obama:

great poll...hope its true...the only way we r going to end the inertia in congress is by handing the next president a clear mandate to move forward...i'd be very happy if mccain got close to the same numbers the last senator from arizona got...betcha obama moves to a clear lead in indiana by monday next week :0)

____________________

Ryguy:

i really hope prop 8 doesnt pass. it would be a very sad day for my great state of california.

____________________

This poll will more then likely be more accurate then Rasmussen. Rasmussen uses a ridicuously low Democrat partisan weighing.

This sample is a very large sample size. The larger the sample size is, the more validity the test (in this case the poll) has. Validity means that the test or poll is accurately measuring what it is suppose to measure. In this case, the poll is measuring the percentage of vote for each candidate.


If the results of the test or poll can be repeated with similiar results, then the poll has reliability. This poll shows reliability, because Obama's lead continues to gradually get larger over time while using the same large sample size.

Lets not be complacent because of poll numbers, however. The only way to make this poll accurate and reliable is for people to get out and vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden! Only 2 more weeks to go until game day on November 4th. Lets take this football in for the winning TD. Lets get a win!

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

____________________

green baby green:

@Boomshak:

IF THE STORY WAS TRUE...

If my grandma had balls she'd have been my grandfather!...if my grandma had wheels whe would have been a trollycar!...

should we keep going?

____________________

dave101:

Finally. "The people" are figuring out the republican "free market economy" isn't so free after all.

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SoCal_Rules:

I guess that CBS/NY Times poll (Obama 54, McSame 41) isn't such an outlier now, is it. It's time to post it.

I voted early here in SoCal last weekend and voted No on Prop 8. Equality for all!

OBAMA-BIDEN 2008 BABY!!

____________________

Mark in LA:

@Stonecreek
@M913

LA = Lower Alabama. I have heard that there was another "LA" on the West Coast.

____________________

boomdoom:

Watch McShame love for PA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLVSURlFoQs

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