Daily Kos (D)/ Research 2000
10/09-11,08; 1,100 LV 3%
Obama 53, McCain 40
Now that's what I'm talking about! Sorry McSlime, your BS backfired this time.
Landslide Baby Landslide
Posted on October 12, 2008 9:31 AM
Yesterday saw national polls from Zogby, Hotline, Gallup, Rasmussen and R2K. After weighting the figures I went back and produced the numbers for only these trackers (no Zogby on Monday, and I've dropped Battleground altogether) to try to get a clearer picture of the week's pattern. This produced the following figures for Obama.
Mon 50.8/ +8.2
Tues 50.5/ +7.2
Wed 50.0/ +6.6
Thur 50.0/ +7.1
Fri 50.2/ +7.7
Sat 50.9/ +8.1
The movement is small but looks like signal rather than noise. Obama dipped slightly before the debate (presumably as a result of the attacks) but picked up after the debate to finish yesterday at the same place he started on Monday.
The three polls out so far suggest today's result will show a similar or better position for Obama than yeterday.
Posted on October 12, 2008 9:49 AM
McCain better starts talking about the economy. People haven't heard anything from McCain. Has anybody told McCain that "is the economy, stupid"?
Posted on October 12, 2008 9:55 AM
Actually today is Obama +8.3 out of the three daily tracking polls so far. His highest lead this week.
With Gallup and Hotline polls I predict a minimum 8.5 lead at the end of day.
Posted on October 12, 2008 10:03 AM
The AMcCain campaign is flummoxed. They can not agree on a strategy so they are using the shotgun approach. They are seeing the writing on the wall and want to try to terrify the electorate to get movement.
McCain has tried to wrest to change mantle from Obama - he failed. He tried to paint Obama as risky but by McCain's erratic behavior he has shown Obama as the less risky choice. McCain then tried to associate Obama with tangential associations with Ayers and Rezko, it has backfired.
The McCain campaign is in disarray and today he says he will be unveiling a new economic plan. But the country has been concerned about the economy for the past month, why wait until now to bring it out. What will make the people believe him now?
Posted on October 12, 2008 10:09 AM
I don't think you can compare the days with Zogby (Tu-Sa) to the day without (Monday). In any event, though, it does look like there has been some sort of significant movement in Obama's favor approximately since the debate. As always, though, it could be transient.
Posted on October 12, 2008 10:10 AM
That's true for the simple average, but my figures are weighted, principally for sample size (see fivethreeeight.com for weighting methodology). The three polls so far give Obama weighted figues of 51/ +7.6. With Hotline (LV), which is now out, it's 50.7/ +7.65. Just Gallop to go.
Posted on October 12, 2008 10:19 AM
I can't include a figure that doesn't exist, I can just point it out. Don't believe it would have made much difference, particularly when I compare the trendline for the compilation of *all* national polls, which shows the same pattern.
Posted on October 12, 2008 10:48 AM
I agree it doesn't make much difference, but I do think it throws off the Monday to Tuesday trend, since it debuted with a relative low number for Obama (and in fact continues to be a bit on the low side). In other words, I think if Zogby had been around as of Monday, there would likely have been less, if any, dip from Monday to Tuesday. Similarly, I'm not sure I would quite agree with your proposition that Obama ended Saturday in the same place where he was Monday, again because if the Zogby poll had been around on Monday, I think Monday would likely have been lower than Saturday.
Again this is not a big deal overall, but basically I am not sure this week was really a dip and back up for Obama as opposed to more like just an incremental gain.
Posted on October 12, 2008 11:01 AM
You've got to remember that Zogby has a lower weight because of sample size. If I plug into the Monday model Zogby's Tuesday numbers (which were low) the difference is
I will post a graph tomorrow morning, when I have the full 7 days of data.
Posted on October 12, 2008 11:22 AM
Whoops, angle braket deleted end of first sentence, which should read "... less than 0.1%"
Posted on October 12, 2008 11:32 AM
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