Pollster.com

Yawn. Landslide!

McCain Surge! Thank Jesus.

Here comes the surge. Promise you by election day McCain will be up 25 points.

Todays polls summary:
We had 2 accurate polls IBD and GWU. Compared to yesterday IBD Obama expanded his lead by 2, but that is ONLY statistical noise.
We also had about 11 outliers.
All of the news papers and news channels in US except drudgereport and Fox noise are commie pink purple red liberal extereme extereme left Socialist communist traitors in tank with Obama. They get paid from Obama camp through Rezko who is also running Acorn from the Jail.

Just a historical not from 2004:

Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27-10/29/04 Bush +6
Newsweek (880 LV) 10/21-10/22/04 Bush +2

Bush won by 1.5%.

Double digits seems the flavor of the day.

Landslide Baby Landslide!!

PPP - Ohio (10/24)
Obama - 51
McCain - 44

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Ohio_1024938.pdf

Some of the key things driving Obama’s lead in the state are:
-A 48-36 lead with independent voters.
-A unified party. Obama is up 86-10 with Democrats. Earlier in the summer he was
having some trouble winning over former Clinton supporters in Ohio but that has
subsided.
-A good performance with white voters. McCain leads just 49-46 among them. Ohio’s
black population is large enough that McCain would need to win whites by at least ten
points to take the state overall.
-Overwhelming support from his core constituencies of black and young voters. He’s up 89-8 with African Americans and 64-28 with voters under 30.

@political_junki

Almost correct. The latest Fox News poll had Obama +9, so Fox News is also "in the tank" with the rest of them.

Great Obama ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qq8Uc5BFogE&eurl

Seeing as there's little to say anymore that hasn't been said 10,000 times on this site already, I'd simply like to say that I'd definitely be open to a threesome with Sarah Palin and Tina Fey.

Definitely.

Smack! Ouch! Obama's lead increases. In fact his Likely Voters are more than what his RV's were on October 8-9th.

Interesting as well that the LV and RV models have converged. Could it mean that many of the people previously excluded from the LV...HAVE ACTUALLY VOTED? Or maybe Obama has won over more and more of the "Likely Voter" pool to the point where they are no different in support from the new voters?

Interesting!

An alien visited me and told me that the actual numbers from Ohio are

McCain 110%
Obama -13%

These numbers were confirmed with super secret internal polls that I know of because my second cousin dates a policman that patrols the neighborhood near where Obama polling is done.

@DTM:
Obama agents have infiltrated Fox noise under the cover of real americans hence that poll!. some of them even had real american passports!!!!
WHERE IS ATTORNEY GENERAL ON THIS?

Also Obama is negotiating with Chavez and Castro through Ayres, their next plan is to declare united states of america a socialist republic on nov 5.
A friend of mine has a friend who has a cousin, that cousin has a friend whose father has a friend in CIA, he told me that.

this poll polled democrats over republicans by an extra 25%. you'd think at this point pollsters would be more concerned with getting it as accurate as possible and not with getting "their guy" elected.

Shifts in Ohio

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/10/shifts-in-ohio.html

Most pollsters call random numbers by holding the demographics like age, race, location, population density etc constant and take whatever party ID they get as a result....Depending on the current mood in the country there could be more Dems or Reps as the case may be....this Newsweek poll has not been weighted for party ID.

@Northeastern Republican:
That is not true. Where did you get the 25?
D's are 11% more than R'. and It is not even registered D's or R's.
The question asks:
As of TODAY do you LEAN more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?
Total RVs
25 27 Republican
36 36 Democrat

You see: It doesnt say are you a registered republican or democrat. It asks where do you LEAN.
Actually that number for leaners is fairly accrate, give the party id around 7-8

DTM: Bush won by 2.4 pts

50.7%
48.3%

The Newsweek poll has some interesting questions. Apparently up to a third of McCain supporters are "weak" whereas 80% of Obama supporters are "strong".

Also they expect only 11% AA voters with about 80% going toward Obama. That seems low.

That is a little low, but they dont want to over do the AA vote, which is fair.

Also Newsweek asked "Hillary Clinton supporters" if they supported Obama or McCain. 87% Obama and only 6% McCain. Given that many of the HC-PUMAS actually were crossovers from the Republican party it would be interesting to see how many are affiliated with Republicans of those 6%.

Oh my Gosh McPalinocchio is getting ****ed deep inside. Nowadays double digit lead becomes normal

FYI: Back to 2004 neither Bush nor Kerry led by double digit from Oct till Nov 4th

Don't believe me? --
click the following link
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

the internals of this poll are SERIOUSLY messed up! wtf releases internals as a pdf anyway? it is IMPOSSIBLE to scroll through. and who the hell releases a poll this late on a Friday night? Friday night is date night. Pollster is just lucky boomshak don't date.

PS: FAIL!
11 pt edge for DEMS.
That means this poll is a statistical tie! A one point lead for O within the MOE. SuperSurge. Tied BEFORE Sunday.

@mirrorball

You are correct. I mistakenly substituted the final RCP poll average (which was on the same page from which I was getting the Newsweek polls) for the actual election result.

Sorry for the error.

political_junki:

"All of the news papers and news channels in US except drudgereport and Fox noise are commie pink purple red liberal extereme extereme left Socialist communist traitors in tank with Obama. They get paid from Obama camp through Rezko who is also running Acorn from the Jail."

This is meant to be sarcasm right? I can't tell anymore. I've seen so many grotesquely ignorant statements and accusations coming out of McCain/Palin supporters it's honestly beginning to look like a really scary episode of the Twilight Zone. I mean, people are actually SAYING that kind of stuff and BELIEVING IT.

How desperate can the right get? The racist videos I've seen on youtube.com alone are enough to make me weep for my country. A stuffed monkey with an Obama sticker for a hat? What the !@##?

How disgusting and terrifyingly paranoid it is that that Nazi Limbaugh actually suggested that Senator Obama was in Hawaii in order to fiddle around with his birth certificate, not see his very ill grandmother.

You know, when hate and paranoia get to that level the crazies act on it. I hope the hard right, Mr. Limbaugh and that nutjob Rachel Maddow understand their culpability should anyone take what they've said or done and act on it.

Oh...and McCain's brother reminds me of his running mate and her behavior (Tazorgate? how stupid is she?????). Arrogant, petty nobodies in the presence of power who believe their behavior, words and ignorance are always excusable simply by association.

@northeastern republican

So Fox is among the polling orgs that are interested in getting their guy elected? Go to fivethirtyeight.com and you can find stuff that deals with some of your concerns. Your guy isn't going to be elected because he is running the most incompetent and foulest campaign in modern presidential electoral politics. He deserves to lose after hiring on the very people who slimed him, his children, and his wife. What kind of person does that? Someone who puts his ego first, rather than his honor or country.

@ BoomShak

You clearly dont know polling.

This is not over sampling as you think it is.

The national avg of Dem to Rep is

36% Dem
25% Rep

It has always been like that, ALL poll are done this way and have always been done this way.

@northeastern republican

As if serious information and knowledge means anything to delusional Reps, but you might find the following interesting:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/10/a_note_on_the_polls_1.html

and please tell me where all the Jewish voters are in that ANTISEMITIC Newsweek poll?!
With Lieberman support the Jews are breaking for McCain in record numbers!

Jews4McCain! Hell yeah!

Another FAIL

Polls take the Avg of voters and put them together.

A FAIR pollster will try to make a Microcosm of the US. Taking in all Demographics that are equal to the number that would be present in the US, is the correct way to poll.

The end of Republican Nazism is just over the horizon. I can just see all the right wing religous nuts, that still say they are voting for McBush, wetting their pants as that "Islamic" man walks into the White House. This will ruin their lilly white image of America. Maybe a McCain surge will spare them the anguish. Maybe I have enough geritol to hold on to see it.

Today, the monthly averages of Gallup Poll Daily shows that Jewish voters "now favor Obama over John McCain by more than 3 to 1, 74% to 22%."

"Though we will only know the final numbers on election night, the trend is clearly in Senator Barack Obama’s direction," stated Ira N. Forman, Executive Director of the National Jewish Democratic Council (NJDC).

"More than any year in the past, Republican operatives have crowed about the increasing proportion of the Jewish vote going to Republicans this year. In fact, for every election since at least 1972 we’ve heard ‘sky is falling’ predictions concerning the Democratic proportion of the vote. However, it looks like this is going to be one more year when political pundits, some in the media, Jewish Republicans, and other partisans were wrong in their over the top forecasts," said Forman.

Hos me the outlier and I will tell you how biased you're

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 10/16 - 10/23 -- -- 50.4 42.5 Obama +7.9
Newsweek 10/22 - 10/23 882 LV 4.0 53 41 Obama +12
Rasmussen Reports 10/21 - 10/23 3000 LV 2.0 52 45 Obama +7
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/21 - 10/23 2406 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/21 - 10/23 2365 LV 2.0 51 44 Obama +7
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/21 - 10/23 1203 LV 2.9 51 41 Obama +10
Hotline/FD 10/21 - 10/23 766 LV 3.5 50 43 Obama +7
ABC News/Wash Post 10/20 - 10/23 1321 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
GWU/Battleground 10/19 - 10/23 1000 LV 3.1 49 46 Obama +3
IBD/TIPP 10/19 - 10/23 1008 LV 3.0 46 42 Obama +4
CBS News/NY Times 10/19 - 10/22 771 LV -- 52 39 Obama +13
FOX News 10/20 - 10/21 936 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 1159 RV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
Associated Press/GfK 10/16 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 44 43 Obama +1
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16 - 10/20 773 LV 3.5 50 42 Obama +8
CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV 2.5 53 39 Obama +14

@boomshack

Watch out-- you are pretending to be a supporter of Jews, and you heard about slap a Jew day, right? There are lots of nasty anti-semites out there, and they might mistake you for a friend of the Jews and come after you. You are so demented, you make me feel sane, and I'm pretty wigged out myself.

@Boomshack

Jews are going towards Obama, by alot. Jew heavly vote Dem and never, not even for race will break for reps.

by the way, Barack means Lighting in hebrew.

Today, the monthly averages of Gallup Poll Daily shows that Jewish voters "now favor Obama over John McCain by more than 3 to 1, 74% to 22%."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111424/Obama-Winning-Over-Jewish-Vote.aspx

OK.... I AM SICK OF ALL YOU F***ING MORONS!!!

READ CAREFULLY...

There is Boomshak - who is a genuine right wing moron who possible suffers from a potent mixture of ADD and Psychosis

Then there is BoomshaCk - who does a parody of Boomshak. BoomshaCk is a normal reasonable person (kerrchdavis I think) who is just having some fun.

Please STOP confusing the two...

Internals for McCain/Palin are brutal on this one.

@vmval1

So you are taking kerrchdavis in "who is boomshCk" office pool. I would have said that kerrch was a little too articulate, but I have been wrong before.

Lord. The Republican wave is rising from the deep.

Obama008:

@Boomshack
Jews are going towards Obama, by alot. Jew heavly vote Dem and never, not even for race will break for reps.

That is still NO REASON to exclude them from the poll. That stinks of antisemitism to me.

by the way, Barack means Lighting in hebrew.

baruch ashem.

Nice Sample:

Democrats - 36%
Republicans - 25%

Sure.

Now, boomshak really looks crazy :-)!!!

Things are really bad on the other side. Obama/Biden '08

@vmval1

lol, you're absolutely correct EXCEPT I am not boomshack!!

lol, why does everyone think I'm the one impersonating everyone??

alright, how many Booms are on this thing?

vmval1:

[...]
"Then there is BoomshaCk - who does a parody of Boomshak. BoomshaCk is a normal reasonable person (kerrchdavis I think) who is just having some fun."

AFAIR kerrchdavis admitted to being the original boomshak as in
"Nice Sample:
Democrats - 36%
Republicans - 25%
Sure."

OneAngryDwarf:

"@vmval1
So you are taking kerrchdavis in "who is boomshCk" office pool. I would have said that kerrch was a little too articulate, but I have been wrong before."

LOL. It seems the conventional wisdom had money on two prime candidates for boom du plume. One was kerr. The other one was....
LMAO. no, just giggles this time. 1Angry, is there something you would like to get off your chest while there's no one here but us chickens? :)

@MN

"AFAIR kerrchdavis admitted to being the original boomshak as in
"Nice Sample:
Democrats - 36%
Republicans - 25%
Sure."

What?

kerrchdavis:

"@vmval1
lol, you're absolutely correct EXCEPT I am not boomshack!!"

right. LOL. but what about boomshak? didn't i read someone admitting they were boomshak? earlier today?

lol, why does everyone think I'm the one impersonating everyone??

not everyone. but among prime suspects are
- boomshak
- alankeyes.

this is getting really funny. meanwhile boomshak actually thinks that everybody is in love with him. :)

kerr, if I am wrong, I apologize, but did you or did you not say in the earlier thread today that you are boomshak?

kerr did say he was boomshak, but it was in a post laced with sarcasm.

speaking of which, que gusto es a verte esta noche, carl29. Como estas? Y a donde fue todo eso tiempo? Eres tu un boom? Possible?

@MN

I was JOKING! and i know you knew I was!

[nemesis], the years on Internet rendered me completely immune to sarcasm.

Lol, this forum is utterly obsessed with me.

god, I wish we could all hit up a bar together. How fun would it be to laugh about boomshak in PERSON? :P

kerr, fine. i deserve that. but i desperately wanted to believe. lol.

guess we are back to square one. unless 1Agnry fesses up. *g*

@boomshak

you're "popular" with this forum the way Osama bin Laden was "popular" with Americans after 9/11.

Now please, run along back to your trailer park. Your mother needs you during these dire, communist times.

9days. Landslide baby!

kerrshack, I'm in on the bar idea. any time you or carl&family or 1Angry find yourselves in MN, the beer is on me.

@MN

I think 1angry is actually boskop/stillow/raleighNC.

One of all of them.

1- Cant you read boom? That is not party id, it is just asking which party do you LEAN towards.

2- If you want to scroll just save the pdf to your pc instead of reading it from the internet explorer

@political

lol! don't help him if hes too stupid to figure it out. :P

@MN

I might have to take you up on that!

kerrch, the scary thing is, I am convinced all three of those are for real. seriously.
but i am convinced that alankeyes is a troll gone too far. i think i saw him on trolls gone wild video.

It seems that boskop/stillow/batony are all bitter Hilary supporters. Anyone else get that vibe?

political_junki:

"1- Cant you read boom? That is not party id, it is just asking which party do you LEAN towards."

LOL political_junki, let's be fair:
1)it is late at night and
2)it is an adobe acrobat file that's hard to scroll through with pizza sauce on your hands.

btw, the invite goes for you too.

KipTin too, kerrch.
btw, thanks for that link for the CNNBC election video. I spread it around to quite a few ppl. But they were gonna come out and vote anyway.

@MNLatteLiberal:
Thanks dude!
I am going to Chicago for election night :)
Anybody else is going?
Maybe we can have the drink there :-)

@DTM

Yes, I remember 2004 only too well. Bush won by 1.5% and immediately declared it a mandate.

Obama better watch out. In 2-3 months McCain might catch-up.

@shirefox

Bush has had one long mandate with Dick Cheney. And not an unfunded mandate, either.

Seriously, the real 2004 mandate was from the Ohio elections board. And the real 200 mandate was from the Supreme Court.

Obama Tsunami!

Sorry, I'm not sure whom the 200 mandate was for. That was a little before my time.

Newsweek poll dates Oct 22-23

McCain holds Reps 86-9
Obama holds Dems 91-5
Obama wins Inds 49-41
McCain wins whites 47-45
Obama wins non-whites 80-17
Obama wins men 52-42
Obama wins women 54-39
McCain wins Bush voters 80-16
Obama wins Kerry voters 86-8
Obama wins Hilary voters 86-7
Obama wins did not vote 2004 63-30
Obama wins early voters 60-35