ABC News / Washington Post
10/27-30/08; 1,580 LV, 2.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 53, McCain 44
Guys, only 98 hours (4*24 + 2) remaining before the polls closed in VA, IN, GA and maybe NC
Posted on October 31, 2008 5:17 PM
This poll is conducted using landlines and cellphones and has a reasonable sample size AND it's clearly trending in Obama's direction. While it may have a bit of a D lean, there is no mistaking the direction.
Today I worked a phonebank recruiting volunteers for Obama for VA -- the enthusiasm and hope are palpable and powerful.
Choose hope over fear: Obama/Biden '08
Posted on October 31, 2008 5:20 PM
TICK TOCK TICK TOCK. When is the McCain surge? Wed?
Posted on October 31, 2008 5:38 PM
I don't think the media is going to be able to pretend to keep this close until Tuesday. The numbers that are coming out are just not favorable to McCain.
Posted on October 31, 2008 5:42 PM
Uptick here and Gallup. Looks good to me.
Posted on October 31, 2008 5:44 PM
So it's official, right? Rasmussen was the only one to "tighten" ... all others either stayed the same or expanded?
It's at times like this that I miss Boom. What would be his spin on the numbers today. Only Ras went in Mac's favor, and we all know that it lags by a day or two in sensing trends.
Posted on October 31, 2008 5:47 PM
6 polls now showing a 7 point race... 4 showing 3 or 4. Hmmmm.
This is at least the fourth poll showing a gain for O from yesterday. The national numbers are absolutely not improving for mcbush. Hotsy totsy. :)
Posted on October 31, 2008 5:49 PM
I think this poll is just about what it will be in the end. The fat lady is clearing her throat.
Posted on October 31, 2008 5:50 PM
All of the tracking polls for today have now been released. Here's the average of the seven daily ones (Zogby, R2K, Rasmussen, Hotline, Gallup-LV Expanded, IBD/TIPP and ABC/WP-LV).
10/31/2008 (10/30/2008 in parenthesis)
Obama 50.5 (50.0)
McCain 43.8 (44.0)
Obama +6.6 (+6.0)
In this average, the high was 9% (Gallup-LV Expanded) and the low was 4% (Rasmussen).
The highest spread for today was Obama +11 in both the Gallup-RV model (52/41) and the ABC/Washington Post-RV model (53/42).
Now let's take a look back into 2004 and compare the ABC/WP, Rasmussen, TIPP and Zogby tracking polls. I couldn't find Gallup for some reason.
ABC/WP, 10/27-30 (10/25-28, 2004 in parenthesis)
Obama 53 (47)
McCain 44 (50)
Obama +9 (Bush +3)
TIPP, 10/28-30 (10/26-28, 2004 in parenthesis)
Obama 48 (43)
McCain 44 (48)
Obama +4 (Bush +5)
Rasmussen, 10/28-30 (10/26-28, 2004 in parenthesis)
Obama 51 (48)
McCain 47 (49)
Obama +4 (Bush +1)
Zogby, 10/28-30 (10/26-28, 2004 in parenthesis)
Obama 50 (47)
McCain 43 (47)
Obama +7 (TIE)
Average (2004 in parenthesis)
Obama 50.5 (46.3)
McCain 44.5 (48.5)
Obama +6.0 (Bush +2.2)
And here's Battleground if anyone's interested.
Battleground, 10/27-30 (10/25-28, 2004 in parenthesis)
Obama 49 (46)
McCain 45 (51)
Obama +4 (Bush +5)
Fox holds at O+3!
(How's that for spin)
It seems to me that the story about the dramatic tightening of the polls was told two way. The first way was to tell the story in spite of all the evidence to the contrary. The second was to constantly predict a tightening as as a way to tell a story about tightening. Either way, it wasn't very helpful and didn't illuminate much.
Posted on October 31, 2008 5:52 PM
What allows me to sleep at night.
#1 - Obama is polling well amongst white folks. In some cases, as high as Jimmy Carter in the 70's.
#2 - Bush won over 50% of the Hispanic vote. McCain? Not even close.
#3 - Women overwhelmingly for the DEMS, as usual, even WITH a female on the ballot as VP.
#4 - Early voter turn out.
#5 - POLLING! Even at the state level. If McCain wins this would be the largest polling disaster in US HISTORY. Unlikely.
#6 - So many paths to 270.
#7 - In 2004, Bush's RCP average was 1.5%. Obama's? 6.5. Bush won by 2.5%.
#8 - Obama's clearly winning independents in almost EVERY poll.
#9 - Polling has consistently shown an enthusiasm gap. Even with Palin, real conservatives JUST AREN'T EXCITED.
#10 - Dems now outweight Republicans by over 6%.
No one, but Fox and their loyal followers, is listening or paying attention to McCain at this point. He has changed his attacks on Obama 10 times in the last week and is not getting any traction. It is a Sisyphean task. One that he has been on for weeks now. People are tired of the negativity and the relentless attacks. They want a leader.
Posted on October 31, 2008 5:53 PM
#11 - The electoral college map compared to '04 is literally NIGHT AND DAY.
#12 - In '04 about 15 polls predicted a Bush win, 5 or so did for Kerry. TODAY? All 20 show an obama win. This is UNLIKELY to change by Monday night.
Posted on October 31, 2008 5:54 PM
McCain Surge! McCain Landslide!
These polls showing positive (negative) movement are great news for John McCain!!!
Posted on October 31, 2008 5:59 PM
So there's an average swing of 8.4 points from Bush 2004 to Obama 2008 - nice!
Posted on October 31, 2008 6:03 PM
"McCain Surge! McCain Landslide!"
I know you are being facetious but last week
all the people who really believed in the McCain surge, reminded me of the movie "The Princess Bide." When Vizzini kept saying "inconceivable" when in fact what was inconceivable was really happening, until Inago says to him, "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." Very funny.
Posted on October 31, 2008 6:07 PM
The weighted average of the 3-day trackers have Obama at 50.8 and McCain at 44.8, with the trend moving against the Republican.
Given this is Friday afternoon, this looks to be an unbridgeable gap.
Posted on October 31, 2008 6:08 PM
I love the media. POLLS ALWAYS tighten before election. Not this time guys, not this time.
Posted on October 31, 2008 6:09 PM
Clinton won 6% of the vote in 92 and had the largest DEM landslide in a VERY long time.
Posted on October 31, 2008 6:10 PM
"McCain Surge! McCain Landslide!"
I almost posted that quote about five different times, but figured no one would pick up on it!
Posted on October 31, 2008 7:04 PM
Somehow this poll is good for John McCain....
Somehow, but I'm not sure how. Time is running out on what's good for McCain.
Posted on October 31, 2008 7:31 PM
Even as a neutral who doesn't care for either candidate, I do hope Obama wins at this point. This country will never recover if Obama loses having these kinds of leads going into the final days. Whatever the reason for losing, half the country and the rest of the world will believe we are racist beyond hope.
Posted on October 31, 2008 7:32 PM
I wanted to see what you guys think of this article. It is a little scary.
It is halloween after all ;)
Posted on October 31, 2008 8:01 PM
FWIW, Mark Shields (PBS) thinks its a 4%-6% race, @350 EV (no details. Brooks trumps him, says more like 7%-8%-9% and north of 350 EVs, doesn't say hom much north of that.
In fairness, Brooks comes from the wing of the GOP that was appalled by Palin, which may color his view, but hey, I'm happy with 80% of that.
hehe forgot to add the link
Posted on October 31, 2008 8:02 PM
Pollster (and me) put it at 6% (RCP 6.5) with the momentum in Obama's direction. Whichever way you slice it that's unwinnable for McCain.
Shields is showing typical Democrat nervousness, which is understandable. Brooks, I think, is weighing the Obama ground game into his calculations.
Posted on October 31, 2008 8:09 PM
I don't know, Shields sounds pretty relaxed.
Buchanan on Hardball is literally frothing at the mouth as he recites Palin's virtues. That tells me all I need to know about her. He's one of the real bad guys in American politics.
It's Halloween, and I hear the ghost of Tom Watson rustling around behind he curtains.
Posted on October 31, 2008 8:26 PM
Someone mentioned what's with McCain internal polling showing race is tied in Iowa and what's with that. Here is the scoop on THAT. Watch the news cycle on these state polls and hear what McCain's camp say's about the polls tightening. Notice they always say "our internal polling shows the race in fill (in blank state) is either tied or tightening." McCain's camp never says their internals show they have overtaken Obama's lead. There is a reason for this and #1) McCain camp is full of BS on these internals and #2) By not saying they have overtaken Obama in the polling. They cannot be accussed of lying. But make no mistake McCain camp is following Karl Rove on this path. Remember in 06 when most polling showed DEMS might win control of both House. Rove til the very end was feeding reporters data showing GOP would retain control of congress. It'a all part of a final strategic play to try and create an illusion that this election is very close. It's NOT. But get out there and vote. I did in Indiana. BTW I think at this point that startegy is a mistake. Another strategy would be to lead voters to believe Obama has locked up race and try to convince Obama supporters that it's a done deal. Leading the new young voters to maybe blow voting off. By making it appear close the Obama supporters will be more energized to vote. Also Obama has a plan for 65,000 people in Illinois on election night. You have plan for that kind of crowd. Not arrogance but planning. If Obama thought he was going to lose would he be planning such an event? I have yet to see anything yet about McCain's post election plans. Off Topic: It's halloween. I am in Indy. Going to MouseTrap Bar at 56th and College in couple hours. Have a great live regional band playing named "Twin Cats" playing for Halloween. Any Hoosiers on here. Should be cool. I will wear ND hat. Buy ya a drink: Irish Car Bomb. LOL
Posted on October 31, 2008 8:31 PM
John McLaughlin of PBS' The McLaughlin Group 4 days before the election just said "it is too close to call".
Posted on October 31, 2008 8:32 PM
This would be our first batch of polls after Obamas 30 minute commercial. We know that bump will be small and short lived. McCain will be charging soon!
Posted on October 31, 2008 8:36 PM
Maybe their internal polls do show a tightening in IA. If I heard correctly on the radio earlier, Obama and Palin will both be in IA Monday. That should tell you something.
In case you haven't noticed, I am doing my part to fill the "boomvoid."
Posted on October 31, 2008 8:40 PM
As Nate has just posted in his daily roundup: "Contrary to Rick Davis’s assertions, there is absolutely no reason to conclude that McCain is competitive in Iowa ..."
Posted on October 31, 2008 8:57 PM
"This would be our first batch of polls after Obamas 30 minute commercial. We know that bump will be small and short lived. McCain will be charging soon!"
Yep, should be back in contention by next Friday.
You'll have to do a better job if you're going to channel boom :-)
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:00 PM
"Yep, should be back in contention by next Friday."
At this rate, more like mid-February...
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:07 PM
I have been playing around with the Electoral Map provided by CNN and I have come up with some interesting scenarios...all of which have McCain pulling off some miraculous upsets in BG states...and Obama still winning the election. Here are some of the scenarios:
1. McCain wins: PA,VA,NC,FL,IN,IA,MO
Obama holds onto: CO, NM, NV, and OH
Result: Obama 270 - McCain 268
2. McCain wins: OH,PA,VA,NC,IN,IA,MO,NV
Obama holds: CO,NM,FL
Result: Obama 272 - McCain 266
3. McCain wins: PA,OH,FL,IN,MO,CO,NV
Obama holds: VA,NC,IA,NM
Result: Obama 271 - McCain 267
Let us suppose that the states that are supposedly "trending" McCain according to the mysterious "internal polls" of the GOP, which as of now include Florida, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina, and Missouri. Let us suspend the powers of disbelief once more and assume that McCain wins ALL of these states. We will then assume that Obama holds onto the states in which his lead appears to have solidified...which are: Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa.
The result: Obama 270 - McCain 268
Think about this for a moment....McCain can pull off the unthinkable...winning Florida, Ohio, AND Pennsylvania.....and still LOSE the election with Obama holding onto states where most polls show him with a near double-digit lead, or at least a lead that has been remarkably stable over most polls for quite some time.
I dont know about the rest of you nervous Liberals....but this breakdown made me feel A LOT better. With all of that being said, my prediction for the final state-by-state electoral breakdown:
Obama: Kerry + IA,OH,VA,NC,FL,CO,NM,NV, and the electoral upset GA!
Final Result: Obama 368 - McCain 160
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:20 PM
sorry for the typo...I "fat fingered" the "6" instead of hitting the "7"....obviously the final breakdown of my prediction would be:
Obama 368 - McCain 170
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:24 PM
I would swear I heard on the radio when I was in the car today that Obama and Palin will both be in IA Monday. Even the newscaster sounded confused. I suppose you can make the case that Obama is going there to thank those we set him on the path to election. Or maybe there to support down ticket.
You guys are right. Someone should have said:
I know boom.
Boom was a friend of mine.
You, sir, are no boom.
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:37 PM
I just received this message from the McCain campaign:
I believe we are in a very competitive campaign.
All the major polls have shown a tightening in the race and a significant narrowing of the numbers. In John McCain's typical pattern, he is closing strong and surprising the pundits. We believe this race is winnable, and if the trajectory continues, we will surpass the 270 Electoral votes needed on Election Night.
* National Polls: Major polls last week showed John McCain trailing by double-digit margins - but by the middle of this week, we were within the margin of error on four national tracking surveys. In fact, the Gallup national tracking survey showed the race in a virtual tie 2 days this week.
* State Polls:
Iowa - Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days. We took Obama's lead from the double digits to a very close race. That is why you see Barack Obama visiting the state in the final days, trying to stem his losses. It is too little, too late. Like many other Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain's column.
The Southwest - It is no secret that Republican candidates in the Southwest have to focus on winning over enough Latino and Hispanic voters in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado to carry them to victory.
Colorado - Barack Obama tried to outspend our campaign in Colorado during the early weeks of October and finish off our candidate in Colorado. However, after our visit early this week, we saw a tremendous rebound in our poll position, and Colorado is back on the map.
Ohio and Pennsylvania - Everyone knows that vote rich Ohio and Pennsylvania will be key battlegrounds for this election. Between the two: 41 electoral votes and no candidate has gotten to the White House without Ohio. Senator McCain and Governor Palin have been campaigning non-stop in these key battleground states and tonight Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has pumped up our campaign at a rally in Columbus. Our position in these states is strong and undecided voters continue to have a very favorable impression of our candidate.
Obama campaign faces tremendous structural challenges in the final days of this campaign
* Obama has a challenge hitting 50%: Barack Obama has not reached the 50% threshold in almost any the battleground state. He consistently is performing in the 45-48% range. When we look closely at the primary votes, we see a history of a candidate whose Election Day performance is often at or behind his final polling numbers. If this is true, our surge will leave Obama with even or under 50% of the vote on Election Day.
* Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win.
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:44 PM
Lots and lots of propaganda. Talk about cherry picking polls.
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:51 PM
That's an absolutely fascinating exercise in spin. I particularly like them citing Gallup's Wed result (for which Drudge broke out the red font!) but ignoring the past two days.
The fact they are so disconnected from empirical reality is a really clear signal of how badly they are doing. Winners don't need to distort and lie.
Posted on October 31, 2008 9:54 PM
If McCain really believes that, it's time for Shady Pines fella
what do you make of the "new zogby poll" via drudge:
ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:16 PM
I especially liked the Iowa scenario and Obama running out of states to include ND and Georgia to find his 270.
I think the McCain myth has about another day. After that it's all about what time the media calls it for Obama on Tuesday.
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:17 PM
Zogby's just making a fool of himself. Watch his Saturday topline tighten, and then widen again on Sunday and Monday, all the while pretending this represents some real movement in the electorate rather than the intrusion of an outlier in his daily figures.
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:24 PM
Did anyone notice the Times (London) article today where it says The One is working on how to lower the expectations for his presidency immediately after the election ... admitting he can't accomplish all that crap he's been spoonfeeding the Obamanots on the campaign trail? It was wonderfully telling about what a liar he is.
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:26 PM
Ya, like that isn't the case with every new election winner.
Posted on October 31, 2008 10:33 PM
@ Keep VA Red:
Posted on October 31, 2008 11:16 PM
Obama was in Iowa tonight since he had to cancel last week to go to Hawaii... i didn't see any plans for him to return to Iowa... or interestingly PA
Posted on October 31, 2008 11:36 PM
Hehe, yeah that's funny. Actually, Ulysses has it nailed-on. Read the actual article before spouting 'facts' that are at best taken out of context, and at worst deliberate flat out lies.
Posted on October 31, 2008 11:54 PM
@Keep VA Red:
Care to answer those who've posted the actual Economist article, for which you (very thoughtfully) failed to provide the link?
Care to answer?
We're still waiting.
Posted on November 1, 2008 12:34 AM
My bad... Times of London, not The Economist.
Posted on November 1, 2008 12:37 AM
Care to answer those who've posted the actual Times of London article, for which you (very thoughtfully) failed to provide the link?
Care to answer?
Posted on November 1, 2008 12:39 AM
Just want to comment about a poster here - BigMike.
Being a liberal Canadian - we probably don't agree much about anything. He may describe Canada as liberal, socialist or whatever. But I have to say he approaches these posts with decency and argues his corner without getting into the name calling crap.
And I kind of respect the dude for that :)
That said Mike ... I quite like the way canada functions. My city councillor is black, my provincial assembly member (=state senator) is a muslim and my MP is a woman. And I'm happy.
Don't believe all this "socialist" stuff.
Posted on November 1, 2008 12:59 AM
Zogby says, McCain is surging ...he outpolled Obama yesterday 48-47% ... time to panic ?
Posted on November 1, 2008 6:23 AM
PA 51-47 Obama only 4 (Ras)
But Obama can win the election without PA
Kerry states + NM + COL + NEV + VA + IA = 270 - 268
Could be a long night with waiting for the NEV result
And of course Obama must win NH if he looses PA
Posted on November 1, 2008 8:40 AM
Pennsylvania Democratic Primary
Final Results -- 54.6 45.4 Clinton +9.2
RCP Average -- 49.5 43.4 Clinton +6.1
InsiderAdvantage -- 49 42 Clinton +7.0
Zogby -- 51 41 Clinton +10.0
Rasmussen -- 49 44 Clinton +5.0
PPP -- 46 49 Obama +3.0
Suffolk -- 52 42 Clinton +10.0
SurveyUSA -- 50 44 Clinton +6.0
Quinnipiac -- 51 44 Clinton +7.0
Strategic Vision -- 48 41 Clinton +7.0
Posted on November 1, 2008 8:50 AM
For .pdf, please see:
Posted on November 1, 2008 9:37 AM
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