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US: Obama 53, McCain 44 (ABC-Post-10/28-31)

Topics: PHome

ABC News / Washington Post
10/28-31/08; 1,900 LV, 2.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(ABC, Post)

National
Obama 53, McCain 44

 

Comments
NorthernObserver:

Nice to see Obama so far above 50; nice sample size, small MOE!

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MC_from_Cali.:

Does Virginia have early voting, and if so any early voting numbers from there? Update on the North Carolina early voting numbers? Also would it be to much of a stretch to think that obama can get 20% of the white vote in georgia, in turn winning him the state. If I'm correct he's getting about 30% of the black vote in georgia. Are whites from Georgia so conservative that not even 20% of them would vote democratic?

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political_junki:

In a mere 56 hours, voters in Dixville Notch, NH will cast the first Election Day ballots of the 2008 contest, and in that time, John McCain will need to close a big gap among likely voters if he is to defeat Barack Obama.

In today's Washington Post-ABC News daily tracking poll, Obama holds a 53 to 44 percent lead over McCain, unchanged from yesterday, and little in the survey suggests that trimming the margin would be an easy feat.

For the first time, the slice of likely voters who report they will "definitely" vote for Obama has (by just a hair) now reached 50 percent, a milestone which George W. Bush never reached in Post-ABC tracking polls in 2004 or 2000, and the number of movable voters - those who said they could change their minds or who remain undecided - has slimmed to 7 percent.

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drinkwine247:

Imortant thing to remember, VOTE!!!!!!!

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drinkwine247:

Important thing to remember, VOTE!!!!!!!!

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mirrorball:

@MC_from_Cali: Nope, no early voting in Virginia.

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andrewfromva:

These numbers don't mesh with the zogby one day results that marginally, at best looks good for Mac. Fail!!!! (sarcasm)

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andrewfromva:

You can vote early as an absentee voter (in person) in va.

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Dave Barnes:

@MC_in_Cali

All about early voting is at http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

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NW Patrick:

Headline on CNN.com: McCain razzed over Cheney endorsement

Headline on MSNBC.com: Candidates hit red states in final stretch

Headline on Fox.com: Bracing for heavy turn out and McCain Attacks Obama's Faith in Americans

Headline on CBSnews.com: Banks Aim To Help Struggling Homeowners

Headline on ABCNEWS.com: Time to Decide: Moveable Voters Dwindle as Obama Leads McCain

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mirrorball:

True, though I don't think Va. has "no excuse" absentee voting. Then again, how strictly do they enforce that? But today was the last day. According to the state elections office, as of 10/30, 429,000 voters have requested an absentee ballot, with more than 312,000 ballots returned. In 2004, the total number of absentee ballots cast was 222,059.

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NW Patrick:

The Obama aunt story isn't catching the traction the Bush Administration/McCain administration wanted!

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thoughtful:

This looks to me how this election is going to end up with 390+EVs>

At 72 years of age McCain is not offering anything different from Bush/Cheney other than Sarah Palin.

ERGO Landslide

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KMartDad08:

5 of the 7 daily trackers (not counting Battleground because they don't poll on Fri & Sat) have Obama at or above 50. Only Zogby and IBD have him below, and the problems with their models are legendary.

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straight talk:

Obama is surgin! In Arkansa he is down by 7%!

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political_junki:

What I really like about these late stages of the election is that even if pollster had political agenda in the earlier stages, now they will forget it and focus on saving their reputation. That is why you see for example IBD/TIPP tracker go from O+1 to O+5 in a week and probably to O+6 or 7 in the next 2, every pollster is trying to converge to the average of other pollsters :)
So On Wednesday, you will see all these pollsters claiming they had it right :) It is easier to do this for national polls ofcourse than it is for state polls

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NW Patrick:

Saturday, November 01 SO FAR TODAY

Race (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread

Pennsylvania Rasmussen Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4
Oregon Rasmussen Obama 54, McCain 42 Obama +12
National Rasmussen Reports Obama 51, McCain 46 Obama +5
National Gallup (Traditional)* Obama 52, McCain 42 Obama +10
National Gallup (Expanded)* Obama 52, McCain 42 Obama +10
National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
National Diageo/Hotline Obama 51, McCain 44 Obama +7
Florida Mason-Dixon Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2
National ABC News/Wash Post Obama 53, McCain 44 Obama +9
National IBD/TIPP Obama 48, McCain 43 Obama +5
Pennsylvania Morning Call Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8
Iowa Research 2000 Obama 53, McCain 39 Obama +14
Wisconsin U. of WI Obama 52, McCain 42 Obama +10

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Paul:

Just finished analysis of early voting from NC as of 3:45 pm EST today. From: ftp://www.app.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/absentee11xx04xx2008_Stats.xls
40% of Registered Voters have voted:
Dems: 51.6%
Reps: 30.1%
Unaffiliated: 21.5%

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political_junki:

NW Patrick:
Also these
Arkansas McCain 51, Obama 44
Florida Obama 50, McCain 46
Indiana Obama 48, McCain 48
Pennsylvania Obama 51, McCain 45

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NW Patrick:

straight talk I saw that too! Down 7 in A R K A N S A S? This campaign is pulling away from McCain.

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thoughtful:

@Paul

Unbelievable numbers

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NW Patrick:

Question. Has 1 poll, ONE shown McCain within the margin of error in PA? I'm feelin' fine with PA:)

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NW Patrick:

Guys..I just watched the beginning of LOU DOBBS and his opening story wasn't even the Obama Aunt story. LOL This is the biggest anti-immigrant windbag in the world and he isn't talking about it! ROFL

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johncoz:

The weighted average of the 3-day trackers confirms Obama has been consolidating his lead since Wednesday.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3206/2993433260_9b735f2fe5_b.jpg

If we add in TIPP and ABC/WashPo the situation is essentially the same: O 51/ M 44.2

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straight talk:

Obama is fired up! He just told Colorado that we are GOING TO WIN THIS ELECTION! He said that their is a righteous wind at our backs!

Man that man is showing an awful lot of confidence! He must know something we don't!

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Boris_Dieter:

Folks, the most important thing is turnout and electing democrats who can participate with Obama in making his administration successful. I realize we're numbers junkies, but the fact is we're wasting time here. Get involved. Call.

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RfrancisR:

Dave Barnes:
@MC_in_Cali

All about early voting is at http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html


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Interesting. Last night when I went to bed 18-29 year olds made up only 13.2% of the vote in NC. As of today, they make up 13.9% of the vote in NC, that's a 5% increase in their share of the vote in NC. Will the weekend see a youth voter surge in NC?

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Paul:

Early voting statistics from Georgia as of Nov 1:
35% of the vote so far from AA (2004 AA turnout 25%)

60.5% of the total of 2004 presidential election voters have already voted in Georgia.

Sources:
http://elections.gmu.edu/Early%20Vote%202008.xls
http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/earlyvotingstats08.htm

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shirefox:

andrewfromva,
"You can vote early as an absentee voter (in person) in va."

Yeh that's the way it is in MN too. We need to fix that. I admit it's the same thing as early voting, but why not ditch the absentee word and call it early voting. It's psychologically better.

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Nhoj:

straight talk well generally you try to sound confident and actually looking at the polls i imagine hes seeing the same as us which is obama leading in nearly all swing states.

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jonny87:

@RfrancisR

last week 18-29s were 10.8%. big surge.

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All_Will_Be_Clear_Nov_5:

@ MC_from_Cali.:

"Also would it be to much of a stretch to think that obama can get 20% of the white vote in georgia, in turn winning him the state. If I'm correct he's getting about 30% of the black vote in georgia. Are whites from Georgia so conservative that not even 20% of them would vote democratic?"

Your sentiment is appreciated. (BTW--I am a Californian who has lived in Georgia [Atlanta] for 22 years.) Enthusiasm among African Americans in GA is off the charts, as early voting numbers and the incredibly long lines for early voting reflected. (I voted a month ago, when lines were considerably shorter.)

I don't know whether the AA vote on election day (early voting is over) will continue to be 35% proportion of total vote. If so, then Obama would need approximately 25% of the non-AA vote, which does seem plausible, even in conservative Georgia.

Given the enthusiasm, I would not be surprised to an Obama victory here. This also likely would mean a Jim Martin victory for Senate.

Keeping my fingers crossed in GA.

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Dana Adini:

45% of democats have already voted in NC...magic number is 70%...good job of GOTV

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masselo:

Paul:

you think obama can win GA -- you think he can a good chunk of the white voters to help him win the state?

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Sorry McCain!:

Sorry McCain!

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Odds for one on 1 with Arnold are even money. By the way, if VA and Penn are so close, where was O today??

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shirefox:

@straight talk

McCain can't see something we can't see; he's blinded by Caribou Barbie. :)

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jonny87:

CBS News Survey Shows Democratic Ticket With 19 Point Edge Among Early Voters, 13 Point Lead Among Likely Voters Overall

+2 from thursday for obama

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/11/01/opinion/polls/main4563051.shtml

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straight talk:

O always outpeforms his numbers in the southern states!Just go back to his primary numbers! Take NC.

In the Primary, He was projected to be up by 6%! He won by 14%.

AA are turning out like the evangelicals turned out for BUSH!

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RfrancisR:

Dana Adini:
45% of democats have already voted in NC...magic number is 70%...good job of GOTV

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Note of caution about party affiliation in the south. Just because you are registered Democrat in the south doesn't mean you think like a Democrat or vote like a Democrat. Lot of old conservative whites who liked the Democratic Party of Jefferson-Davis, have never changed their registration to account for the fact that the Democratic Party is now a progressive party. So, just because you see lots of Dems showing up in NC, it doesn't mean much.

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Dana Adini:

I never thought Obama really had a chance in NC. After early voting number....it's a real chance wow.

Georgia harder to tell but he is in play for sure

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

wow at CBS numbers. I honestly thought there would be more polls showing tightening but I guess Zogby really does suck that bad.

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jonny87:

looking through cbs nummbers there are slightly more clinton primary voters than obama primary voters....plenty of obama supporters left to come out on election day???

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Thatcher:

HOLY SHEEE-IIITTT ... jonny87 ...

I wasn't expecting a new CBS poll today ...

And it jives with Pew and Gallup!

Also - note - it's Obama +13 among LV and +19 among the 20% already voted in their poll (a difference of 6) ... now look at Gallup ... On Thursday, they said the early vote was +15 for Obama and today's LV was +10 (a difference of 5) ... so they are quite on trend with each other ...

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@RfrancisR

While I agree the Party ID is not absolute in NC I do find good news in the Rep numbers being lower than 2004 and Indies going up a bit.

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jonny87:

...cbs numbers on those who have voted early*

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carl29:

"Obama leads among early voters 57% to 38%, a nineteen point advantage."

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maddiekat:

I just heard that Obama is pulling some of his staff out of PA and putting them in Ohio. I guess Axlerod was not kidding last night when he said he felt good about PA.

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carl29:

It seems that Obama is going for a killer :-)

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straight talk:

MAY DAY, May DAy! LAndslide Alert! STate polls should start to climb again because of what is happenin nationally! Sounds like some undecideds are breaking toward OBama!

Obama is pullin out of PA? And you guys were worried! THis guy has a backbone of steel!

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sunnymi:

@maddiekat, you said "I just heard that Obama is pulling some of his staff out of PA and putting them in Ohio. I guess Axlerod was not kidding last night when he said he felt good about PA."

To add to it he has rallies in the 3 biggest cities in OH tomorrow - Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati.

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jonny87:

@Thatcher

its hard to believe. all will be revealed...

nothing to suggest at the moment that late deciders are going to break decisively for mccain.

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carl29:

straight talk,

Obama is not pulling some of his staff out of PA because he is worried about it, quite the contrary. He is seeing good things coming out of OH. Judging by the numbers in the early voting, there is a real chance that he can also take OH as well. There are so many openings :-)

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sunnymi:


@jonny87 & @carl29:

I think you guys were right in the other thread about the FL early voting....36.1% in 2004 seems to be the % of the total who actually voted and a % of the registered voters..so the 46.9% number this in early voting is a big improvement.

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Dewey1858:

@maddiekat:
I just heard that Obama is pulling some of his staff out of PA and putting them in Ohio. I guess Axlerod was not kidding last night when he said he felt good about PA.

According to Nate at 538, if Obama doesn't win PA, based on scenarios he's run, Obama still wins 89+% of the time. I'd still like to see Obama win PA, of course, being a resident. And I think it's very, very likely he will. (Seems to me a lot of the GOTV heavy lifting in Philly and Pittsburgh can be done by the state Dem. party anyway.)


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Thatcher:

email Nate @ 538 with the subject: "NEW CBS NATIONAL POLL" 538dotcom[at]gmail.com along with the link in the body:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/11/01/opinion/polls/main4563051.shtml

That way he gets it before he posts his #'s for the night :)

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Dewey1858:

@Obama is pullin out of PA? And you guys were worried! THis guy has a backbone of steel!

Not just backbone either, I'm convinced at this point.

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ricbrig:

In the middle of the epic McCain's surge I didn't really expect these numbers. They may not be accurate but as jonny saiid, Obama polling so strongly doen't give any ground to the momentum shift towards McCain.

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Basil:

R's are in an interesting dilemma. Normally, they might want to close polls as early as possible on Nov. 4, figuring that absentee and early voting favors them. This time, when early voting may favor Dems, R's may be motivated to keep polls open as long as possible. I'm sure it doesn't come naturally to them.

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Thatcher:

(for my own ego - I'm reposting this ... I've been stating this for the past several days ...)

Look at the trend for the entire month of October for 2004. The Bush/Kerry race tightened - but that is because it was already trending that way. The challenging party was behind the incumbent party and was tightening.

Gore/Bush 2000 - (which Gore won the popular vote - but Bush won the electoral). Bush was trending all of October to tighten. The challenging party was behind the incumbent party and was tightening.

Same with Carter/Reagan 1980. Reagan was trending as tightening. the challenging party was behind the incumbent and it tightened and surpassed.

(Update 10/28) 1996 Dole - Clinton ... Dole (challenging party) tightens in the final month on Clinton (incumbent party). (end update)

These are some of the examples everyone uses as their belief that "this race will tighten" ... however - notice the similarities.

The challenging party was the surging party - not the incumbent party. This year, it's the same thing - challenging party is surging. But a big difference between this year and the other years we are talking about is that the challenging party already had the lead going into October. So, this race will NOT tighten - but either flatten or continue to expand.

In *most* elections - the last minute undecideds that do end up voting - normally vote *AGAINST* the incumbent person/party.

Here's a study on this - it deals with candidates, but I've seen similar studies dealing with parties ... http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

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NW Patrick:

So besides poll giving Obama a CLEAR lead and the state and national level, now the race is widening, not tightening, unlike past elections over history. Hmmmmmm. :)

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Thatcher:

@Dewey1858

LOL at b&lls of steel comment

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jonny87:

about obamas 30 min ad..

does anyone think it may depress support amongst soft mccain supporters.....

obamas probably going to win and in that ad even though you may be against him he didnt exactly come of as a terrifying prospect so why bother to vote???????

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johncoz:

Addition of the CBS poll, pushes the day's weighted national averages to:

O 51.5/ M 43.7/ Undecided & Other 4.8

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straight talk:

The state poll# will follow this surge in the national polls! Just like McCains surge tightened the states a bit!

The repubs talking point play into the O camp GoTV strategy!

Obama said that race is not over! What did the McCain Camp do? They helped sell the idea to the Obama supporters!

Now the Obama supporters are nervous and crashing the polls!

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webim:

WOW
Go on foxnews and the link to kenya . Watch the comment .
Is that America ?
I'm from France and I can understand that some people can thinks like that in the 21st century ??
There is no moderation on the website ??

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Dewey1858:

@Thatcher:
@Dewey1858

LOL at b&lls of steel comment

Good thing Joe caught himself in time, is all I have to say.

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Ulysses:
60 hours to go. Is alomst impossible to believe. I thought I'd never get this close to the election... like Xeno's paradox of Achilles racing the tortoise to the wall across a field. The tortoise only requests on precondition: that he can run as fast as he can straight to the wall, but Achilles must half the distance to the wall, then half it again, then half it again, etc., until he gets to the wall. Achilles laughs at this. And off they go. As probably will be obvious to anyone even vaguely thoughtful about mathematics, the tortoise handily beats Achilles. And Achilles? He never arrives.

... Such has been the 2008 American presidential election.
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NW Patrick:

webim Fox News is America's Gestapo.

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jonny87:

karl rove...

'One thing has been consistent: his[mccain] last national lead was on September 25 and he has trailed in all 251 polls since then'

that cant of been easy to write.


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5062889.ece

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webim:

why drudge is linking in red to a video two months old??

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ricbrig:

@Thatcher I think that this elections, thanks to the completely negative campaign by McCain, ended up in being perceived like a sort of referendum pro or against Obama. Obama had a very good strategy in injecting confidence and gaining the trust of may voters. In these conditions the race cannot be tightening. It is true that some soft support goes has been regained by McCain but it also true that if the choice is between pro or against Obama, voters who start to trust him, will choose him and won't go back to a counterpart who has completely lost his message and his proposals.

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NW Patrick:

The media is so funny. Chris Matthews just said John McCain was in MO which looks like a pretty safe state for McCain based on "popular opinion" polls. SAFE? I just looked on RCP..McCain's up 1/2 percent. These guys for spending all day spinning news should pay attention. LOL

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kerrchdavis:

Hi guys...I just got back. it doesn't sound like the race will be tied by this Sunday...

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NW Patrick:

That ridiculous fox news poll will drop off the RCP average by Monday when the WSJ poll is released.

P Average 10/27 - 10/31 -- -- 50.4 43.6 Obama +6.8

Rasmussen Reports 10/29 - 10/31 3000 LV 2.0 51 46 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/29 - 10/31 2516 LV 2.0 52 42 Obama +10
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/29 - 10/31 2480 LV 2.0 52 42 Obama +10
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/29 - 10/31 1201 LV 2.9 49 44 Obama +5
Diageo/Hotline 10/29 - 10/31 876 LV 3.6 51 44 Obama +7
CBS News 10/28 - 10/31 747 LV -- 54 41 Obama +13
ABC News/Wash Post 10/28 - 10/31 1900 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
IBD/TIPP 10/27 - 10/31 894 LV 3.0 48 43 Obama +5
GWU/Battleground 10/27 - 10/30 800 LV 3.5 49 45 Obama +4
Marist 10/29 - 10/29 543 LV 4.5 50 43 Obama +7
FOX News 10/28 - 10/29 924 LV 3.0 47 44 Obama +3

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Lechuguilla:

I seriously do not understand O's strategy for pulling out of Pennsylvania. They're taking a big risk.

I wish O would get out of Colorado, and camp out for duration of the campaign in Ohio and Penn.

Lech

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NW Patrick:

kerrchdavis it's been a pollster dream today for Obama. My fav poll of the day, although only plus 2 for Obama was from Mason Dixon, Obama plus 2. This poll had Obama down in FL a week ago and this pollster is VERY conservative in their weighting.

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NeutralNick:

They are not pulling the campaign out of penn, obama is just leaving along with some of his top brass. You can't expect him to stay in one state the entire last week, especially when other states are closer.

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NW Patrick:

Not 1 PA poll has shown a close race that is NOT from a R leaning pollster, that's why. In addition, even a 4 point lead with a day left is a done deal folks. 4 point win is a win. The AA vote will take care of ANY issue in PA. Watch for it.

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range1:

RCP at end of day


Obama-6.8
Obama-50.4

"The obligation to repair this world"

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NW Patrick:

PA - Rasmussen IS a Republican. Mason Dixon polls ALWAYS lean R in their weighting. Strategic vision? Notice the R next to their name. And then look at ALL other polls. Hey when you spend 2 weeks in ANY state their would be tightening. Obama could tighten TEXAS if he wanted to. The fact is guys McCain had to look as if he was trying to win a blue state not only because he HAD to but because how would it look if he spent the last 2 weeks in his campaign running on defense from red state to red state while poll after poll shows him gaining NO ground in those states? This is a last ditch attempt to rile the base. McCain has ZERO chance in PA.

RCP Average 10/23 - 10/31 -- -- 51.8 43.3 Obama +8.5

Rasmussen 10/30 - 10/30 500 LV 4.5 51 47 Obama +4
Morning Call 10/27 - 10/31 615 LV 4.0 52 44 Obama +8
Strategic Vision (R) 10/27 - 10/29 1200 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/27 - 10/28 625 LV 4.0 47 43 Obama +4
Rasmussen 10/27 - 10/27 500 LV 4.5 53 46 Obama +7
Marist 10/26 - 10/27 713 LV 4.0 55 41 Obama +14
InAdv/PollPosition 10/26 - 10/26 588 LV 3.8 51 42 Obama +9
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 768 LV 3.5 55 43 Obama +12

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Dewey1858:

@NW Patrick:
Not 1 PA poll has shown a close race that is NOT from a R leaning pollster, that's why. In addition, even a 4 point lead with a day left is a done deal folks. 4 point win is a win. The AA vote will take care of ANY issue in PA. Watch for it.

PA is different from '04. The increase in registered Dems has been huge. I believe the number of registered Republicans has actually declined (not completely sure about this). McCain will win some Dems, but the new folks will be very anti-incumbent - if Obama can get them to the polls, PA will be safely in his column.


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maddiekat:

Hey Boomshak I know your reading this. Tied by Sunday right?? We miss you, not!

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kerrchdavis:

So what do you guys actually think the margin IS in PA right now?

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Dewey1858:

Oh, and according to Nate at 538 this p.m., Obama has a better chance of carrying AZ than Obama does of carrying PA. Feel better?

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Thatcher:

@jonny87 ...

actually I like this:

"This will be America’s most costly presidential race. Barack Obama will spend north of $700m and John McCain more than $450m. Add the other candidates and third-party groups and the total expenditure will break $2.4 billion.

This may seem a lot but Americans annually spend $8 billion on haircare products, $64 billion on soft drinks and $577 billion on convenience store purchases, so $2.4 billion isn’t too much to pick the leader of the free world."

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article5062889.ece

And here Karl Rove validates my challenging party/incumbent party stance (egad, Rove and I see eye to eye):

"If the margin between McCain and Obama is three points, there are more than enough undecided voters to swing the contest. Since 1948, undecideds have given an average of 38% to the challenger party, 34% to the White House party and 6% to third parties while 23% stayed at home."

Now, if 23% stay home ... that 38% to the challenger party becomes 49.35% of the actual undecideds that vote ... while the incumbent party gets 44.16% (or a +5.19% for Obama).

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UpstateProgressive:

If the polls were tightening a little recently, they aren't any more. The ABC-Post poll has always had an Obama lean, but really at this point it's hard to find a rationale for a McCain victory.

The Gallup tracker is +10, ABC +9, Kos (R2000) +7, Hotline +7, Ras +5, and all of these put Obama at 51% or higher. If undecideds break more or less evenly, as many (except Fox) expect, Obama could easily hit 53 or 54%. Moreover, the state polls are probably better for Obama than the nationals.

Let the media keep spinning this as a tight race, but--and I'm sorry to restate the obvious-- it looks to me like an Obama landslide.

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tominga:

Obama needs about 27% of the white vote in Georgia to win it here.

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Dewey1858:

@kerrchdavis:
So what do you guys actually think the margin IS in PA right now?

I would put it at 6-8. According to Nate this evening, Obama has a better chance of carrying AZ than McCain does of winning PA. Feel better?
I think McCain is throwing every last D*m# thing at PA, and I'd bet my shirt he can't pull it off. Every poll I've seen has Obama at 50+, and even the "shrinking" Morning Call lead has him at 52. Every staffer he pours into PA is one he doesn't have available in Ohio, VA, or Florida. It's basically his last stand.


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Luiz:

NW Patrick:

We should thank Fox News for keeping O voters motivated. Then we will see Insanity calling the election for Obama tuesday night. It is a chance in a lifetime!

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range1:

What is the statistical definition of a "landslide"?

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NW Patrick:

I think Obama will win PA by 8. I trust the tracker that is polling people EVERY single day.

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The Dude:

Folks, as a resident of Georgia (northern Fulton county) I can tell you that Obama has a real shot here. Here are my assumptions:

1. 15% bump in total votes vs 2004 (probably modest)

2. AA vote 30% of the total

3. Obama 92% of the total AA vote

4. 68-29 split of Caucasian vote McSame to Obama

5. 55-45 split of Lat/Asian vote Obama to McSame

The first key is for AA voters on election day to somewhat keep pace with their early voting proportion. In fact, they can underperform by about 10% points (i.e. represent 25% of all voters voting on election day) I believe and still reach the 30% total split.

And the second obvious key is for Obama to keep 29% of the caucasian vote while limiting McCain to 68% of that vote (hello Bob Barr). What I've seen here in northern Fulton county is ALOT more interest in Obama among caucasians.

GA for Obama!

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Lechuguilla:

Re: Pennsylvania, the point is to win it, period. If he does, he wins the election. What more could you want? An O presidency is assured if he carries Penn. Why take a risk on losing it. When you take voters for granted (in Penn) they don't like that, and there is no early voting for O to fall back on.

Any "landslide" can come from winning either Ohio or Florida. But the point of the election is for O to be elected Pres. You do that by ensuring a win in Penn.

Lech

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straight talk:

Obama has the political fortitude to challenge the assertion that McCain can win PA by pulling out!

This shows that he is solid as a rock! Nerves of STEEL! Pa is the head fake of O and Rendell camp pushed by the M camp! Ohio, OhIO, Ohio is the power play!

The McCain camp is taking there eyez off the ball with PA. By not defending RED STATES!

____________________

NW Patrick:

A landslide would be Clinton's last 2 victories around 300-350. The last 2 elections were both under 300 electoral votes. If Obama exceeds 300 it will be a mandate and landslide.

____________________

timontheleft:

@The Dude

I would have to agree. There are lots of McCain|Palin signs around, but the BUZZ is definitely all Obama . . . I can't find anyone actually excited about McCain.

____________________

Dewey1858:

@NW Patrick:
I think Obama will win PA by 8. I trust the tracker that is polling people EVERY single day.

Small sample size in that tracker. And it's closing. But I think O+4 (as per a few recent polls) is the floor for him in PA. He'll win, but I've been on the edge of my seat the past week or so ...


____________________

Lechuguilla:

definition of a landslide:

...when the winner gets to 60 percent of popular vote. That has been the historical definition.

Since bush-junior won, the repubs re-defined a "landslide" to mean any win over 50.00000001 percent.

Nowadays, the media and voters throw the word around in any old way. And it no longer has any specific meaning.

Lech

____________________

Basil:

Can rural racists (not that they all are) in PA vote without having to stand in line while AA's and urban whites wait for hours? I don't know the answer.

How likely are situations to occur where AA's and the worst elements of the GOP are waiting for hours in the same lines? I assume precints are more or less racially homogeneous, but I don't really have a clue.

Lastly, how can early voters stand in monstrous lines day after day, only to leave two thirds to vote on Tuesday? In early voting states (FL, let's say), will they have ten times as many poll workers and machines available to accommodate the rush? If they don't, why won't we see lines 24 hours long, i.e. why won't vast numbers just bail out?

If Nov. 4 is the Obama Tsunami it's shaping up to be and it also goes peacefully, it will be all the more historic.

____________________

mr2dco:

the internals of that cbs poll are nearly as suspect as the fox poll earlier this week. republicans are undersampled. that said, if you add those two polls together and divide by two, obama has a commanding lead.

obama's lead in PA is slipping, but i'm still not concerned. just not enough republicans here for mccain to win-- never has been this year. too many registered dems. obama will win by 4-5%.

only three days to go...

____________________

Dewey1858:

I do also think there is a quite genuine "enthusiasm" gap that is clearly in Obama's favor.

____________________

fed:

The Palin prank has gotten almost 50000 hits in the last few hours

____________________

Schill:

(CBS) With just three days left until Election Day, a new CBS News poll finds that the Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden leads its Republican counterpart by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent. That margin reflects an increase of two points in the Obama-Biden ticket's lead from a CBS News/New York Times poll released Thursday.

About one in five voters say they have already cast their vote, either in person or through the mail, and these early voters prefer the Democratic ticket by an even greater margin. Obama leads among early voters 57 percent to 38 percent, a nineteen point advantage.

The economy is by far the issue of top concern to voters, and they continue to view Obama more favorably on the issue than they do his Republican rival, John McCain. Fifty-one percent of registered voters say Obama would make the economy better, while just 29 percent say McCain would.

On the question of who will raise taxes, the candidates are roughly even: Forty-seven percent say Obama would raise their taxes and 48 percent say McCain would do so.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Read The Complete Poll
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Early voters are slightly more concerned than voters who plan to cast their votes on Election Day that their vote won't be counted accurately. Forty-two percent of early voters are at least somewhat concerned about their vote not being counted, while 34 percent of voters overall say as much.

Nearly half of the early voters are Democrats, while 30 percent are Republican and 21 percent independent. They are slightly more likely to be African American or female than likely voters overall, but they do not differ much in other respects, including ideology, age, income, and level of education.

Early voters who also voted four years ago backed Democratic nominee John Kerry over President George W. Bush 45 percent to 40 percent in the 2004 presidential race.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1120 adults nationwide, including 989 registered voters, interviewed by telephone October 28-31, 2008. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.


© MMVIII, CBS Interactive, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

____________________

Thatcher:

@range1, NW Patrick

538 says 375 is a landslide. I would say around 350.

However, the dictionaries will soon say:

land·slide (lndsld) n.
1.
a. The downward sliding of a relatively dry mass of earth and rock.
b. The mass that slides. Also called landslip.
2.
a. An overwhelming majority of votes for a political party or candidate.
b. An election that sweeps a party or candidate into office.
3. A great victory. (see: 2008 US Presidential Election, Obama)

____________________

timontheleft:

@Basil

Here in GA there are limited places to vote during early voting. On election day ALL precincts will be open.

____________________

Luiz:

I think there arent many indecided voters in PA for McCain to win. Besides, playing offense is better at this point. O is playing big. If he picks OH, GAME OVER.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

I wonder if there isn't another hidden advantage to the way that Obama has conducted his campaign financing.

As we all know corporations pour billions of dollars into K-Street and Washington D.C. every year in what has become legalized influence peddling.

By taking a myriad of donations under $3000 and keeping a majority of the PAC and DNC money out of the campaign has Obama been able to insulate himself (at least in part) from the quid-pro-quo culture that has made up such a large part of our politics?

Does anyone think he's going to be able to go after the K-Street culture and maybe stop things like the "cost+" contracting that has sent so much of our money to the likes of Haliburton (KBR), CACI, and Titan?

____________________

Dewey1858:

@mr2dco:
the internals of that cbs poll are nearly as suspect as the fox poll earlier this week. republicans are undersampled. that said, if you add those two polls together and divide by two, obama has a commanding lead.

obama's lead in PA is slipping, but i'm still not concerned. just not enough republicans here for mccain to win-- never has been this year. too many registered dems. obama will win by 4-5%.

Right on. And Obama knows it. He doesn't want to cede a blue state early in the evening on Tuesday. I think Republicans have been paying too much attention to '04 and not paying enought to registration shifts. I think McCain will hit a ceiling that still leaves Obama with a solid 50+% - even polls that show "closing" show Obama safely above the 50% mark, including that narrowing Morning Call poll this morning that showed Obama's support basically steady.


____________________

NW Patrick:

Clinton had the largest DEM landslide twice in modern history. I expect Obama to win with 313 electoral votes SAFELY. I agree with the current RCP map but I do believe NC and FL could increase this # very well to 353.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

____________________

Brad4Barack:

A dollar to a doughnut Zogby picks up an "Obama surge" tonight, just so he doesn't look foolish, as if that's possible. "Obama has regained the lead with independents, Catholics, blue collar workers, etc... " He's so transparent.

____________________

straight talk:

You guys that are biting your nails, i just want you to be online tues night!

So I can tell you that I told you so! +10 OBama takes PA!


Just Remember I told you so!

McCain best hope for Pa is to let Sarah Palin go to the state and cry! Than we will be in real trouble! This is how Clinton took NH! It Works! SYMPATHy Vote...

____________________

Brad4Barack:

A dollar to a doughnut Zogby picks up an "Obama surge" tonight, just so he doesn't look foolish, as if that's possible. "Obama has regained the lead with independents, Catholics, blue collar workers, etc... " He's so transparent.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Small tid bit here: McCain hasn't lead in an OH or FL poll in TWO weeks.

____________________

johncoz:

The fact that people are waiting more than 15 minutes to vote is a scandal. It doesn't happen in any other Western democracy that I am aware of. Why don't they just open more polling booths?

____________________

RfrancisR:

Doesn't this just warm your heart:

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/11/01/election-officials-brace-heavy-voter-turnout/

Eight years ago it would've been proper to call this the Department of Justice. But after Bush highly politicized the DOJ it really is nothing more than the Republican Party Police. And they are going to "monitor" the election. And I bet all their monitoring takes place in minority and Democratic districts. And I bet that the turnout in all those districts will be severely suppressed.

The election will be stolen.

____________________

NW Patrick:

It's amazing how closely the WORLD is watching this election. They understand how important this is. If you goto BBC's website, and I'm not talking about BBC America..they have a huge banner... "US '08" Brings a tear to my eyes.

____________________

ctj:

OKAY MY OBAMA FRIENDS I HAVE TO SAY IT TO YOU AGAIN- STOP GETTING YOURSELVES IN SUCH A PANIC OVER PA! ONCE AGAIN I WILL SAY YOU ARE LETTING YOUR FEELINGS AND EMOTIONS GET IN THE WAY OF FACTS! I will give you my 3 fact points (with a little humor) to make you feel better.

1.IF ANY OF YOU WERE BUYING INTO THE NONSENSE THAT OBAMA WAS GOING TO WIN PA BY DOUBLE DIGITS THERE IS A BRIDGE IN BROOKLYN I WILL HAPPILY SELL YOU! PA is just not that kind of a state in presidential elections.

Fact- In the last 11 presidential elections PA has had what you would call huge blowouts only twice- LYNDON JOHNSON in 64 and RICHARD NIXON in 72 (2 of the biggest national landslides ever recorded), not even RONALD REAGAN in 84 did that great in PA compared to his national average (he won it by 7 points compared to his eye popping 18 point national number).

2.OBAMA WILL WIN PA THE SAME WAY ANY OTHER DEMOCRAT WINS PA- BY RUNNING UP HUGE #'S IN PHILLY AND THE SUBURBS!

Fact- In order for McCain to counter balance this he would have to win the rest of the state by approx 70-30 and that just is not going to happen

3. SHOW ME ONE PA POLL IN THE LAST 6 WEEKS WHERE MCCAIN HAS LED?

Fact- THERE IS NONE!!!

KEEP THE FAITH- PA STAYS BLUE!!!

____________________

liz from NJ:

tto those of you worried about Obama campaign diverting resources from PA to OH:

I am just guessing, but this is what I think.

PA, especially Western PA where Obama may be weaker than other regions of PA, is heavily unionized. Union, in this election, is lauching an unprecedented canvassing and GOTV operation. In fact, the other day, whole NPR segment was about ***MASSIVE*** Union mobilization in Western PA.

My guess is that, in light of this force helping Obama, O's campaign diverted a bit of its own resources to OH.

Just a guess, but a pretty good one, don't you think?

____________________

BlueInTexas:

I know plenty are looking at North Carolina as a bellwether for this election. I'm looking at Virginia.

Looking at Pollster, McCain could take all of his Solid and Lean states. Take ALL the toss up states, throw in CO, NV, and OH and he STILL comes up short.

Assuming (confidently) that the Pennsylvania gambit fails for McCain and goes Obama - if all falls on Virginia. The wild card?

They started early voting back on SEPT. 23!

____________________

Observer:

On the question of registration shifts I wonder how much influence this has had on the pollsters. From what I read there are at least three main reasons for increased Dem registration:

1. Unpopularity of Bush and the Republicans
2. The wish of some non-Dems to participate in the Dem Primary process.
3. Acorn etc.

All three are in question as far as how this will affect the election:

Re 1: McCain is not as unpopular as Bush or the Republican brand generally.
Re 2: Some of these are Republicans and will vote as such.
Re 3: What percentage of these registrations are real people and not bogus registrations or re-registrations. I don't think anybody knows.

I think the gap between self identified Democrats and Republicans will be nothing like the 7.2% and 9% currently presumed by Rasmussen and Kos respectively. Both Ras and Kos show McCain doing better than simply mirroring the party ID that these pollsters have put into their voter models.

That of course says nothing about any possible PUMA affect.

____________________

NW Patrick:

WHY DON'T WE JUST FOLLOW THE VOTING METHOD LEAD OF LIBERAL OREGON? It's so f'ing ridiculous. IT'S WAY CHEAPER than polling stations. Early voting? Sure. Wait till election day? Fine.

I can't tell you guys how AMAZING it is to have mail only voting. I filled out my ballot 8 days ago over a beer. LOL

I was able to research initiatives online, took a day to fill it out, and mailed that sucker in. Don't like mail? Then drop it off at any # of stations with secured lock boxes.

Sure ballots are scanned by a computer/counter but GUESS WHAT? PAPER TRAIL.

It's a NO BRAINER and it's ludicrous OR is the ONLY state to do it!

Cmon' America! It's the year 2008!

____________________

Thatcher:

I'm seeing this as a 396 or 405 EV for Obama. He takes all the RCP toss ups except for AZ and possibly picks up Louisiana ...

____________________

NW Patrick:

I'm dead serious here. I think after Obama is elected or right now for that matter, people need to call their state election officials and DEMAND a mail in system. End the mayhem. Vote by mail. It's a NO BRAINER. Paper trail, privacy, it's an AWESOME system.

____________________

Bigmike:

There is no generally accepted definition of a landslide, that I am aware of. As you see, it has been defined by posters here as 60% of the vote, 375 EV, 350 EV, or, by my good friend NW Patrick, "A landslide would be Clinton's last 2 victories around 300-350."

I would have to take exception to the Clinton wins. I don't see 43% of the vote as a landslide.

The electoral college, except in a closely decided race, tends to produce a wide spread in EV. Daddy Bush carried 40 states and got 426 EV with 53% of the popular vote.

My own not so humble opinion would be somewhere around 60% of the vote, although that might be setting the bar a little too high. Even the great Ronald Reagan did not get 60% when he carried 49 states in 1984.

____________________

jeepdad:

CBS has Obama up 13? Did I hear that right?

____________________

Basil:

The Dude

I grew up where you are now. I went to Lovett at a time when parents were sending their kids there to avoid integrated schools (though they didn't say that to me at the time).

A lot has changed, obviously. Just look at Buckhead. I will be thrilled in absentia when Georgia goes blue.

And if you didn't catch a previous post of mine, The Big Lebowski is a personal fave.

____________________

johncoz:

@NW Patrick:
"It's amazing how closely the WORLD is watching this election."

The prestige Sunday morning political program in Australia, Insiders, just devoted the entire hour to a US election special.

Main challenges identified, btw, are trade -- where Obama has a less than healthy stance -- and Afghanistan, since Australian troops are in the dangerous southern portion of the country that many NATO countries avoid.

No commentator assumed anything other than an Obama victory.

____________________

NW Patrick:

jeepdad that's right! goto www.cbsnews.com

____________________

JedRothwell:

tominga wrote:

"Obama needs about 27% of the white vote in Georgia to win it here."

I believe that is correct.

I am in Georgia, volunteering for the campaign. People at HQ say that polling shows that over 30% of white voters in Georgia support Obama. Support of Latinos and other minorities (other than AA) is running about 75%. If these poll numbers are correct, Obama may well win in Georgia. The Obama campaign is not run by fools. They are presently pumping resources and ad money into Georgia, so they must think there is a real chance.

It is very likely that Martin will win enough to force a run-off. In Georgia, you have to get 50% plus 1 vote to win. If Obama wins he will reportedly come to campaign for Martin, in which case I think Martin will surely win the run-off.

____________________

Thatcher:

Here's a little insight on "Landslide" ... a political race isn't even considered for top tier status unless normally one of these three conditions apply:

1) the incumbent's favorability numbers are below 45-50%

2) last time incumbent won - was within 10 points (so incumbent had to win with less than 55%)

3) in a head to head match up in a poll - there is less than 10 points between the two major candidates

So - that being said ... around +10% is considered a landslide in downballot races - so presidential would be more in the +7 to +9% range.

____________________

Observer:

@NW Patrick

I am afraid that postal voting is as subject to problems as anything else, just different problems.

Imagine a rather aggressive patriarch of a family looking over the should of all of his family as they fill in their votes?

Suppose all of the voters in an area are told to 'consult' their 'community organisers' when they fill in their ballots. People with poor or no command of English might be easy to manipulate.

I have no reason to doubt that postal balloting works well in Oregon. I am sure that it would not be problem free in other communities.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Just speaking from a personal note (I'm white). If Obama wins Tuesday allot of my own personal faith in this nation will be restored. I will admit much has been lost with me, especially the past 4 years. I've been proud of this country before but this will most certainly be the most proud day of my life. Talk about glass ceilings.

____________________

RfrancisR:

jeepdad:
CBS has Obama up 13? Did I hear that right?


_________________________________________

Doesn't matter Bush has just sent out his goon squad to "monitor" the election. Obama could be up 50 and wouldn't win with Bush's goon squad "monitoring" the election.

____________________

NW Patrick:
____________________

NW Patrick:

I don't think I've ever seen a more desperate campaign EVER than McCain's. Has anyone heard this today? "Obama can't get to 270 so he's expanding his race to ND, AZ, and GA to try to find votes." ROFL This party is literally nuts. Desperation is one of the most sickening human attributes.

____________________

KMartDad08:

@Lech

With all due respect, how many presidential campaigns have you run? It seems to me that Axelrod and Plouffe deserve the benefit of the doubt based upon their track record to date. They know what they need to do, and they know the resources they have to do accomplish the goal. My guess is that they feel pretty confident that they're going to get at least 50%+. At that point, the margin doesn't matter.

____________________

timontheleft:

@NW Patrick

I think they've hired Baghdad Bob as their official spokesman.

____________________

Bigmike:

CBS with O +13 is hardly news. They have had him up double digits for quite some time now. Look at the numbers on the national trend page on this site. CBS's numbers have been more in Obama's favor than anyone elses. Do I smell a little bias there, LOL

____________________

Rasmussen: Partisan Weighting (previous week in parenthesis)
Democrats 39.9 (40.0) -0.1
Republicans 33.4 (32.8) +0.6
Unaffiliated 26.7 (27.2) -0.5

Click my user name for source link.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Lech PA means nothing if O only holds Kerry states. He's safe there. WORST CASE SCENERIO by 3 Republican pollsters show plus 4. That's double Kerry's win in 2004. He should be concentrating more on expanding the map so he can WIN. PA IS SAFE DUDE> LOL

____________________

Dewey1858:

@timontheleft:
@NW Patrick

I think they've hired Baghdad Bob as their official spokesman.

Wait for it Monday night: "Tomorrow will be the Mother of all Elections."

____________________

Pat:

I have been making calls from Home for Obama GOTV. This afternoon, I was given three states to choose from:

Virginia, Ohio, Colorado. That was it.
PA was not an option. I think they are very confident about PA.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@Bigmike

They were spot on in 2004 and with Gallup at O+10 it doesn't seem as much of stretch as it did before although it does have a lean no doubt.

____________________

jonny87:

this is a bit annoying...

For polling data released during the final days of Election 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 39.9% Democratic, 33.4% Republican, and 26.7% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, the partisan weighting targets were 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_partisan_weighting_targets_39_9_democrat_33_4_republican

____________________

NW Patrick:

Population of PA 12,400,000. Philly metro 5,700,000. Obama's fine MY FRIENDS:)

____________________

Obama008:

I live in PA, and I think Obama is going to win this state.

If you want to go by the old yard sign count Obama wins.

I live outside philly in Bucks county.

____________________

asquared:

Not to pile on Palin or anything, but what ever happened to her promise to release her medical records?

____________________

RussTC3:

@ jonny87

Why?

A 6.5 point advantage is very solid.

If you look at the trend, the average weighting back for October 2004 only gave the Dems a 1.5 point advantage.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Big Mike. The only problem w/ your argument:

CBS/NY Times 2004 Final Pres Poll

10/28 - 10/30

49%

46%

1%

Bush +3

They were DEAD ON!:)

____________________

NashvilleLefty:

"...when the winner gets to 60 percent of popular vote. That has been the historical definition."

Lech, Reagan in 1984 got less than 60% of the total vote. The only election in the last fifty years in which the winner topped 60% was Nixon in 1972 (60.6%). I think your bar is a little high.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

Any idea of Quinnipiac will be releasing final FLA/PA/OH polls before Tuesday?

____________________

Bigmike:

So much for landslide discussions. In my mind getting a mandate is much more important than winning in a landslide. And, also just my opinion, the bar is much lower for a mandate.

As of today, it is Obama +6 in the beauty pagent, he is likely to take about 30 states and 340-350 EV. If these numbers hold up, how much of a mandate does Obama have? Is he free to take the country in any direction he chooses, or are there boundaries he should not cross?

____________________

Obama008:

I will say this about PA, Palin is driving away voters in PA, that would go for McCain if Palin was not on the ticket.

Obama will get PA.

I live in PA

____________________

Brad4Barack:

@jonny87

Are you a concern troll? You seem to be overly anxious about the election, and I see you voicing a lot of worry.

____________________

Obama008:

Big Mike

I dont think Obama is as left as everyone thinks.

He agrees with many of the Supreme court cases that have gone forward, during this somewhat conservative court we have now.

He will most likely give us a New, New Deal. Socially he isnt going to change a thing, besides what people think about race anymore. If he wins, and is a really good leader racism will drop to nothing.

He will go the road of Bill Clinton middle of the road guy.

____________________

KMartDad08:

Think Drudge will link to the CBS numbers tonight? LOL

____________________

Bigmike:

NW Patrick

They were DEAD ON!:)

Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn sometime.

____________________

jonny87:

@RussTC3

nothing to be alarmed about, just would of preferred the opposite trend.

____________________

laguna_b:

@asquared

"Not to pile on Palin or anything, but what ever happened to her promise to release her medical records?"

What do you expect from a pathalogical liar?

Remember when she said she was against the bridge to no where? etc etc etc....

____________________

Obama008:

KMart.

When pig get lip stick, WHO wait......

____________________

laguna_b:

How much does it cost to apply lipstick to a pig?

Answer: $22,000 for 2 weeks

____________________

Basil:

Tim

Thank you. I feel better.

NW

I obviously agree about Oregon (I'm in Eugene).

Observer

Your point is true of any absentee voting whatever. Is the "aggressive patriarch" strategy the reason absentee votes have traditionally leaned R? I'm the first to admit that the Stockholm Syndrome is a factor in conservative households on any number of issues.

We've been doing this in Oregon for quite a while now, with no indication of the abuses you cite. Zero.

Meanwhile people across the country are standing in lines for hours and R's are turning the US into a banana republic.

The same scenario involving pushy relatives dominating others was invoked when the Oregon Death with Dignity law was passed. That never happened either. Zero reports.

Community organizers? You have to be a citizen to vote here. If you're hispanic, you're a citizen, and your English is not great, you probably listen to Spanish-language radio and talk to your fellow citizens about the election. And a huge and informative voter's pamphlet comes with every ballot. If you can't understand the ballot measures, you've got dozens of ways to get recommendations.

And the ballots are mailed out to your home address only. They don't hand out batches of them to farmworkers out in the fields where "organizers" tell them how to vote.

I worry more about complete idiots thinking Fox and other fascist outlets are real news and voting based on their comedy sketches masquerading as truth. Not to mention GOP thugs and racists.

It's true the AA population in OR is low. Is that part of the potential for "organizer" abuse you cite?

Do you think vote by mail would work in your community?

____________________

Obama008:

laguna

LOL

____________________

jonny87:

@Brad4Barack

not much to be concerned about at the moment, just the occasional inconvenience.

____________________

carl29:

Rendell and Nutter will turn Philadelpia up side down, as if AA needed more encouragement :-) Make no mistake the Democratic machinery in PA will be in full blown with street money and everything included.

____________________

masselo:

I think the mccain campaingn set sarah palin up for this prank call.... I feel really bad for her at this point

____________________

Obama008:

Carl29 you live in PA?

____________________

johncoz:

@Bigmike:
"CBS ... Do I smell a little bias there, LOL"

There is a difference between "bias" and a house effect. The former implies a pollster putting their thumb on the scales, the latter simply implies a systematic difference in survery method and voter model. In that sense the CBS and Fox results are just at the two extremes.

Given the degree of uncertainty about voter models in this cycle, it is best to take these varying results and avergae them in an intelligent way.

There has been today, as on most days, far too many accusations of pollster bias when results don't meet the poster's expectations. This is silly -- and unnecessary since the polls in aggregate give a pretty clear picture of the race.

There is in fact little pollster bias, even in the extreme cases: TIPP has been tripped up by too small a sample spread over too many days; Zogby's ego causes him to do silly things like leaking a meaningless "one-day" result to Drudge, etc. But even in these case, they are not crooked, just wrong or foolish.

____________________

BrookLynda:

Oh, good Lord, have you heard this? MSNBC just played the whole thing.

"Palin, Amazingly, Takes Prank Call from 'Sarkozy'

Published: November 01, 2008 7:00 PM ET

NEW YORK This seemed like a viral joke but since the Palin campaign has confirmed it, must be true: That Quebec radio team, the "Masked Avengers," which specializes in prank calls to celebrities, somehow got Sarah Palin on the line and kept her there, one of them pretending to be Nicholas Sarkozy, for several minutes -- even as "Sarkozy" told her he wanted to go hunting with her in a helicopter (without Cheney) to "kill animals" and that his wife, Carla Bruni, was "hot in bed."

He courteously asked if Joe the Plumber is her husband. Palin hardly batted an eye until told, at the end, that she had been "pranked."

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003886222

____________________

carl29:

Obama008,

No I don't, I live in Miami, although a friend of my husband lives Philadelphia, he is an MD. He doesn't think that McCain can take PA without making inroads in Philly, and he doesn't see that happening. In addition he says that the Democratic machinery in PA(headed by Rendell) is very, very powerful.

____________________

jonny87:

monday pollings going to be bonkers

____________________

Bigmike:

My own hope is that Obama and his buddies in Congress move sharply left. America wanted change alright. We wanted rid of dubya. If we get a lot more change than we really wanted, there will be another change in 2012.

A couple if observations.

Carl29 mentioned the Dem machinery in PA. Not all that long ago, machine politics was not considered a good thing. Especially by libs.

The way you guys carry on about Palin makes me wonder. Either she scares you or you secretly have the hots for her.

____________________

carl29:

Bigmike,

Machinery cuts both ways. McCain has to overcome the Democratic machinery in PA, just as Obama has to overcome the Republican machinery in FL. The problem with McCain is that he didn't take the time to build a strong organization to "fight" that machinery in PA as Obama has done in FL.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Bigmike Acorn huh? So you think Mike Mickey Mouse will show up in election day, present ID, and vote? Hmmmm. LOL

____________________

Obama008:

Carl29

I live outside Philly, in bucks county, Im really sure obama will take PA.

Bigmike

What Carl29 means by machine is just getting out the vote.

Also the unions are helping Obama a TON. Im getting calls from unions all the time, and a few knocks on the door.

Im scared of Palin because she will get eatin up by any other political leader around the world, they will laugh at her. She is like bush just in woman form.

I pray that obama wins this election.

____________________

CapeCodDem:

I guess I have come to the conclusion that I am a typical Democrat who worries unnecessarily about what might go wrong and has a hard time accepting the fact that we are days away electing a transformative, once-in-a-generation leader. It's really a dream come true. (but I still won't believe it completely until I hear the words, "NBC News is now projecting that Barack Obama, the junior Senator from Illinois, has won the Presidency and has been elected as the 44th President of the United States of America."

____________________

merveilleux:

For what it's worth, my mother just said the Obama campaign asked her to give money for an additional ad assault on PA.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@CapeCodDem

I hope they say his middle name also just for kicks *no jinx*

____________________

straight talk:

MAN the media is starting to notice that young voters and AA are flooding the early voting in FLorida and Georgia! And North Carolina!

I think The McCain Campaign is making a strategic mistake by not pushing early voting!

____________________

Bigmike:

NW Patrick:
Bigmike Acorn huh?

You are seeing gremlins that aren't there, pal. I was actually referring to the fruit of the old oak tree. It is an old saying.

Gotta run. Mommamike wants me to go shopping with her. When Momma's not happy..........

Catch you later.

If I miss you guys, please vote. For the candidate of your choice.

____________________

carl29:

@merveilleux,

The Obama campaign ask for money all the time. Take it from me, an avid supporter. I don't think that they are in such need of money when they are throwing some bucks in AZ, GA, ND.

____________________

Basil:

BigMike

Why not hope that Obama is a uniter? Many of us hoped Dubya would be, until he turned out to be the worst divider imaginable?

There are irreducible game-like elements in electoral politics, but there's a reality out there somewhere. Once Obama is elected, is there no way to minimize the game and maximize reality for the sake of everybody on earth?

Or is this all just football to you?

Nobody knows how Obama will govern. Could you cut him some slack or do you just want him to screw up from day one so the folks you like can come back in four years? Sounds like the latter.

____________________

Vercingetorix:

@NW Patrick

"It's amazing how closely the WORLD is watching this election. They understand how important this is. If you goto BBC's website, and I'm not talking about BBC America..they have a huge banner... "US '08" Brings a tear to my eyes."

We Brits have always been keen observers. We like to keep an eye on how the colonies are getting along without the wise guiding hand of the motherland. ;-)

And the last six years - especially Tony Blair's disastrous cheerleading for the Iraq war - have driven home how much it matters to us who sits in the White House. How different would the world have been if Gore had won in 2000?

Frankly, we need to US to take a lead on the big international issues. Instead we've had to watch Bush, Cheney and their neo-con boot boys laying waste to the UN, Kyoto and any other kind of international collaboration that doesn't involve tanks and high explosives.

And then, out of the wreckage Obama emerges. It's hard to overstate the impact he is having on overseas perceptions of the US. I have followed US politics for most of my adult life and spent some time involved in various campaigns in thwe 1980s and 90s, but I did not think the US was ready to elect an African American. So even for those of us who love the US and know that Bush and co present grotesque caricature of one strand of American-ness, Obama's rise seems amazing and inspirational.

And if that wasn't enough to make the election compelling, McCain picked Palin. Now maybe I'm just being a bit fussy here, but I'm not sure I like the idea of a VP who's actually looking forward to armageddon.

____________________

straight talk:

The DCCC, having learned the lessons of Karl Rove’s 72-hour get-out-the-vote effort in 2000 and 2004, has set up 100,000 total volunteer “shifts” around the clock over the next three days in 60 battleground districts — a greatly expanded playing field from the 35 districts Democrats targeted in their successful 2006 bid to take control of the House.

Reported by POlitico! People this is a GOTV STRategy!

Dems have one and I am waiting for the Repub Machine to get it going!

____________________

merveilleux:

Nate from 538 is apparently going to be on MSNBC in a couple of minutes.

____________________

merveilleux:

@carl29:

I agree, I only meant to reassure nervous people that they're still aware of PA and not being complacent.

____________________

[nemesis]:

Regarding the long waits being different than other western democracies, part of the difference is a different system. October 14th was the Canadian election. You just walk in, vote for your Member of Parliament, and walk out. Very quick. The difference is that in the USA, a ballot covers EVERYTHING. I'm not saying one way is better than another, because some people obviously feel a democracy should give the decision for these offices to the people, and that's a legitimate opinion. I'm just saying that it is likely what accounts for the difference in voting times.

P.S. The city where I am has 350,000 people (74,202 registered, which is automatic), and has 212 polling stations. That's 350 voters per station, and that's with 100% turnout. Throw in 3 days of early voting at 8 hours a day, and you've got 6 minutes per person to vote, when it only takes 2.

Hope I didn't just annoy everybody with this information, and hopefully it helps explain things a little.

____________________

mirrorball:

A few pundit predictions via washingtonpost.com. 12 of 14 say Obama will win, and all say the Dems will not get 60 seats (which I agree with).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/pages/pundit-predictions/

____________________

fed:

LOL Drudge did not like Zogby today

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@fed

Not quite time yet man. Another 1-2 hours and we will see if he posts.

____________________

sandman:

Guys,

I think obama is going to win comfortably but CBS is using a 16 point DEM advantage. 40.8 dem 27.6 rep 31.6 und. Do these seem a tad wide ? It would be utterly unprecedented in american politics. 2006 was a horrendous year for Reps. and the dem. advantage was mid single digits. I suppose anything is possible but 13 seems wide.

On another issue, it seems to me that the hard numbers indicate 19% US voters using the 2004 finally tally have voted. As many more will vote this year that figure is less than 19% for 2008. At least CBS seems to have gotten that right. Anyone have a clue why Ras and Gallup seem to be so far off on this number? Thanks in advance.

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johncoz:

@[nemesis]

While understanding the difference in systems between different countries, there is something terribly wrong when people are waiting for 10 hours in Atlanta to vote.

This seems more like something that would happen in Zimbabwe than the US. Worse, there seems to be a high level of acceptance across the political spectrum of this scandalous situation.

____________________

carl29:

sandman,

I don't think that the numbers at "http://elections.gmu" are totally updated. If you look at the dates, not all of them are up today, although I suspect people still sending absentee ballots and casting early votes..

____________________

sotonightthatimightsee:

ABC/WashPost?

'NUFF SAID!

____________________

ctj:

I have been getting phone calls from no less than 10 of my friends freaking out about PA, their basic arguement is that unless Obama is up by 10 points or more they think he is vulnerable. JEEZ! I think this election is causing some smart dems to act very stupid.

NEWSFLASH (I said this in my earlier post)- NO CANDIDATE HAS WON PA BY DOUBLE DIGITS IN THE LAST 11 ELECTIONS SAVE 2- JOHNSON IN 64, AND NIXON IN 72! Thats right not even REAGAN in 84 won PA by double digits (he won by 7 points)!

Relax and get some sleep- LOL!

____________________

mirrorball:

Oh, and just to briefly return to the Virginia early/absentee voting. Here's a photo of a considerable crowd at a location in Arlington, Va. (link to additional photos on the page)

http://dcist.com/2008/11/01/virginia_early_voting_photographic.php

____________________

Pat:

I have been on the phone today with voters in Colorado. Spoke with several registered republican women (in their 50s) who have already voted for Obama because of Palin. She is the gift that keeps on giving.

And, all these women hate the fact that they are receiving hate smear mail on Obama from the GOP.

Also, they all have been contacted by Obama ground game multiple times, but no sign of any McCain ground game. Not even one.

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cinnamonape:

"The way you guys carry on about Palin makes me wonder. Either she scares you or you secretly have the hots for her."

LOL! Next thing you'll be sayin' is we have a man crush on boomshack!

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cinnamonape:

"Masello:I think the mccain campaingn set sarah palin up for this prank call...."

Perhaps some Romney folks who want to end her chance at a future run for President?

____________________

DTM:

I think it is quite clear at this point that if people are thinking about Palin in the voting booth, many more will be scared at the thought than turned on.

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