Pollster.com

Polls seem to all be settling on a solid Obama win!

Landslide Baby Landslide!!

Gallup 13 points????

SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

Nearly all national polls show landslide, state polls indicate a closer race, but obamas to lose anyway....which will win it.

That's up from 50-43 in the last Marist poll. Just a little piece of confirmation that at least nationally, the undecideds don't seem to be breaking disproportionately for McCain.

http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm
interesting

projection 92 to 1
with 92 ave = 354

holysh!it.gallup.com

Just realized that I forgot which states does Obama have to win if he loses Ohio and/or Florida... Read it a thousand times, and now I cannot remember.....

HOLYS@@T GALLUP!!~!!!!@#!#!@#!@#!@#!

I bet Boomshak's head is about to explode.

Fox News poll: 50-43.

2/3 says they are "uncomfortable" with Palin.

Ok kids. It's time for our daily game of NAME......THAT...OUTLIER!

RCP Average 10/29 - 11/02 -- -- 51.7 44.2 Obama +7.5

Marist 11/02 - 11/02 635 LV 4.0 53 44 Obama +9
FOX News 11/01 - 11/02 971 LV 3.0 50 43 Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/01 - 11/02 1011 LV 3.1 51 43 Obama +8
Rasmussen Reports 10/31 - 11/02 3000 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6
Gallup 10/31 - 11/02 2472 LV 2.0 55 44 Obama +11
Diageo/Hotline 10/31 - 11/02 887 LV 3.3 50 45 Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/31 - 11/02 1201 LV 2.9 51 44 Obama +7
CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/01 714 LV 3.5 53 46 Obama +7
CBS News 10/30 - 11/01 607 LV -- 54 41 Obama +13
GWU/Battleground 10/29 - 11/02 800 LV 3.5 50 44 Obama +6
Pew Research 10/29 - 11/01 2587 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6
IBD/TIPP 10/29 - 11/01 844 LV 3.4 47 45 Obama +2
ABC News/Wash Post 10/29 - 11/01 2172 LV 2.5 54 43 Obama +11

My prediction is Obama will win by the largest margin for a first term US Presidential election since Ronald Reagan in 1980 (about 9.7%) ...

And, in fact, will have the largest margin for any first term Democratic candidate since FDR in 1932.

The best part of the faux news is that finally palin has negative favorables:

45-49

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/110308_poll.pdf

Dem/Rep weighting has been corrected.

RCP 7.5

I recommend a screenshot for posterity sake.

Palin's gone off the deep end in Jeff City, saying the "Democrat Party" thinks terrorists are the "good guys".

Bush's RCP average in 2004? 1.5%.

Obama's - 7.5 %.

And anyone is worried?:)

@PortlandRocks

Should go a little higher now that Fox outlier will be +7

jeepdad shes been off there for awhile now.

mystic,

as i pointed out elsewhere, the fox polls do not weight by party id, hence nothing has been "corrected". that's just the nature of sampling variation.

Intrade Political 'Securities' Percentage US$ Traded

Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election 91.0% $11.5M

John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election 9.5% $12.9M

guys,

what IDD/TIPP poll will be released?

last FOX (fake news) poll: O 50 M 43.
I feel as if the levee has broken and even the likes of FOX and Drudge can't pretend otherwise now. Not to be cocky. Let's get out on the ground and win this thing! Vote and get others to vote!

@boquita:

Tomorrow isn't about what states Obama needs to carry - it's about what states are "musts" for McCain:

MCCAIN MUST WINS:
Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, Ohio, North Carolina
(if he isn't carrying ALL of these - he's not carrying much of anything else)

He COULD lose Ohio - if he wins Pennsylvania

But based upon Nate Silver's scenarios at 538 ... http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/what-mccain-win-looks-like.html

In the 624 scenarios (out of 10,000 ran) that McCain won ... all 624 had him winning the first 5. Ohio and NC were only absent in 2-3 of the scenarios each.

So ... unless up becomes down tomorrow - at most you need to watch the results of those 7 states ... I am sure Nate will update later tonight if there are any changes.

It's looking good. If you want a laugh, go to hedgehogreport.com to hear people whining about the bias in the polling. They can't possibly believe the latest Fox poll because of a lead of Democrats in party ID of 7%.

RCP is about to rescale its graph, Obama is reaching 52% in their average and that is their y-axis limit. Just fun to see.

7.5% RCP is really nice but I saw 8% a few days ago

@boquita

That's because there are so damn many combos for Obama to win.

If O loses OH, and FL, he still wins (assuming Kerry states + IA + NM and keeps PA):
if he wins VA, or CO, or NC, or MO, or any other state with greater than 5 EVs
if he wins NV then its a tie and the House of Reps picks him (likely).

And, of course, if he wins either FL or OH, it's pretty much a done deal.

As a pessimist, win I calculate states only where the polls show > 50%, O has 311 EVs.

Pollster should change AK to lean DEM in the Senate race. Even RCP has done that.

What are they saying at Fox? OMG!!!!!!!!

Also in the line of fun things to look at. Check betfair a british betting site (no intent to invite people to bet) and they were right on all 50 states in 2004 according to Huffingtonpost. Check the odds for NC and OH.

Now I sympathize with the McCain-supporters/Obama-haters who are grasping at straws, but this idea they are pushing that McCain will get a majority of undecideds is a little silly.

First, it is a moot point with Obama at 51-52%.

More importantly though there is absolutely no reason to think that remaining undecideds will break for McCain. To begin with, if there is any general trend affecting undecideds it is the momentum of who is ahead. A majority of undecideds will go for whomever is expected to win because people want to back the winner. Past elections bear that out.

Now, let's look at what specific forces may be at work in this election. I think it is safe to assume that most undecideds are independents; some are party faithful finding it hard to support their party's candidate but those would be a minority and would cancel each other out. Where are independents breaking in general? Very clearly toward Obama: for example, taking two polls at random: Gallup says "independents preferred Obama to McCain by 48% to 43%;" Survey USA has them going for Obama 48% to 40%; other polls show similar. That tells you something about where undecided will break. Add to this the difference in GOTV efforts of the two parties. Granted, the GOTV effort is mostly directed at identified leaners or supporters, but if there is a significantly stronger effort from one side the coattails of the efforts will sweep some undecideds along with it. According to Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/one_third_of_obama_voters_plan_to_be_out_tomorrow) 35% of Obama supporters are taking election day off while only 6% of McCain supporters are. We can't assume every one of these people are working on GOTV, but if six times more Obama people than McCain are out there getting out the vote it can't help but bring along some undecided too.

I think it a very reasonable assumption that undecideds will go for Obama by a 55-45 or even 60-40 margin. That says to me that Obama will win the popular vote by 8 or 9 points nationally, with 360-370 EV.

Ipsos/Matchly has a new poll out as well, have you seen it?

My prediction is that IDB/TIPP will show it McCain 65 - Obama 30, with McCain getting 80% of the voters age 18-29 and 60% of Democrats.

@PortlandRocks:

Ooh..Ooh..Ooh...I know!!! I know!!!

Is the answer, "IBD/TIPP?"

Are they done polling now?

Haha... want some more good news? McCain's visit to TN today is likely to get overshadowed (at least there) by a bigger announcement. Tenesee Volunteer football coach Phillip Fulmer is holding a presser at 5 today announcing his resignation. Laugh if you want, but that's way bigger news in TN (and a lot of other southern states) than anything to do with this election.

McCain better hope for a 6.5% Bradley effect. NOTE - NO PRESIDENT HAS EVER LOST THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE in over 150 years when winning at least 1% of the popular vote.

@boquita

Obama doesn't have to win either of Ohio or Florida--rather, more or less McCain has to win both, but that alone would not be sufficient for McCain.

Anyway, the simplest path to victory for Obama is Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico + one other former "red" state where Obama is currently ahead in the polls. For example, that other state could be Nevada (although that goes to the House of Reps), Colorado, or Virginia. Or Ohio, or Florida, or North Carolina, or Missouri. Combinations of more than one of these states just puts Obama further over.

i keep hearing people say that the state polls appear to be tightening. im not sure i agree with that. the states that obama needs to win are all still heavily in his favor. despite what some polls say PA is still solid obama. just remember, he only needs new mexico, Colorado, and Iowa on top of Kerry's states to win this thing... and hes got those. some of the tightening has been on the icing for the cake states.

Final Ipsos/McClatchy poll
Obama: 50
McCain: 42

http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclatchy/20081103/pl_mcclatchy/3090651_1

I love it-- all the seismic corrections in the right-wing pollsters and the one left-wing leaner, Daily Kos. Now, if only Mason-Dixon will correct those ludicrous polls that came out yesterday sending the news media into a tizzy about how McSame is "closing in." Looks like Obama is sprinting to the finish line instead.

Final Ipsos/McClatchy poll: Obama 50, McCain 42

Ipsos/McClatchy:

0: 50
m: 42

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/754232.html

Ipsos with leaners pushed for a choice
Obama: 53
McCain: 46

This is hilarious!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBMdWxcFXQg

Ipsos/McClatchy

O - 50
M - 42

w/leaners

O - 53
M - 46

Newsweek?

Link to Ipsos/McClatchy

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/election2008/story/55193.html

I am seeing the end of Mac and the barbie from Alaska, tomorrow will be like a dream come true
Oh man I can't believe what's happening now
Change is coming in America an I am happy of being a part of the process
For those who haven't voted yet, Get out to vote
and get our country back on track

Obama/Biden 08 and maybe for ever :-)

Palin's future....

She will be the darling of the semi-literate "end-days", gay bashing homophobe, rascist wing of the Republican party. The 4 year clock will be tcking to the first primaries. Unlike this year, she will have to do real interviews where she will be increasingly marginalized by her own statements. After the first few primaries she will fall by the wayside as a relic of color in the politcal landscape history. Romney, and the likable rube from Arkansas wil be joined by a few new players and probably a rising new star or two. Guiliani will be hurt by his 18th divorce and the fact that even his gay friends won't talk to him after his clownish experience this year, 9/11 will be a historic relic instead of a rallying cry for him. The race will be even more Obama in 2012 but instead of Biden, the hier apparent will run as VP.

@ricbrig

Betfair has an almost perfect record worldwide

@johncoz
and also if you compare their odds they are quite similar to Nate's ones in fivethirtyeight. It's not casual I think due to Nate Silver's sport expert background

PPP - Missouri

Teaser:

A poll that's tied the day before the election is like kissing your sister so we're going to take the unusual step of releasing that poll out to decimal points...should be up within half an hour.

Carl29:
Ipsos/Matchly:
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/AP/story/754232.html

50-42 with no leaners
51-46 with pushed leaners

I was looking at the RCP ave tracking for O and M

it looks like M from sept 27 till now saturates at around 44 % while 0 is keep going up.

any comment?

Have you seen the latest trash on Drudge about Obama flipping off McCain... drudge is trash

Sorry
53-36 with pushed leaners

@ jeepdad:

I'm reallyreallyreally hoping that in 2009 any mention of the "Democrat Party" will lead a healthy majority of the nation (call them the "real Americans") to snicker and roll their eyes. I don't recall Mccain using the term until after Palin did; perhaps this is its (or the present GOP's) farewell tour.

@MatCauthon

well he is making all this money from his lame site and doesn't wanna get taxed fairly.

@junki -

You mean 53-46 with pushed leaners?
So that's their "final call"?

Thank you, political_junki.

*About the stupid video, OMG those guys on Fox don't know what to do, for real.

The numbers look great, but I still worry about the effects of these ugly, race-baiting ads that have gone up in the last few days (this is the stuff that, one imagines, inspired Ashley Todd). Will these have any effect? Has anyone seen these? How are folks responding?

WOW...GALLUP NUMBERS OUT TODAY:
RV: O+13
LV-Expanded: O+11
LV-Traditional: O+11

Wow...if even the traditional model is going double-digits for Obama, this could be UGLY!!! (In a great way for us Obama supporters.)

Betfair and Intrade were both correct on all 50 states in 2004, I believe. If you go by their predictions now, Obama would win either 353 or 364 electoral votes (they disagree on Missouri).

I finally found BOOMSHAK's home page:

http://interestedamerican.blogspot.com/2008/10/electoral-college-mccain-278-obama-260.html

;-)

really funny, believe me, check it out.

Dole leads +1 in NC (Mason-Dixon)
This is shocking and a Dole victory would not be good for my election night party.

Is it me or are those British betting sites backwards?
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&disp_cat_id=31&ev_class_id=33&ev_type_id=5142&ev_oc_grp_ids=84907&bir_index=

They give the odds for Dems winning NY as 1-200 or 1/200 which I imagine means "win 1 by betting 200". Isn't it naturally 200-1 meaning "bet 200 to win 1".

Ohio Dem 1/6 Rep 7/2
NC Dem 2/5 Rep 7/4
FL Dem 1/4 Rep 5/2
VA Dem 1/10 Rep 5/1
PA Dem 1/20 Rep 7/1

Rassmussen

Colorado

M 52 - O 48

Virginia

M 50 - O 46

North Carolina

M 53 - O 46

Georgia
M 54 - O 45

Ohio

M 55 - O 42

PA

M 50 - O 45

MO

M 55 - O 44

Indiana

M 50- 48

LOL -- I am just messing with yall Heads

BOOMSHACK __ you wishhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

@alphamale

If you look at Pollster's charts, they have McCain trending more steadily upward and breaking just past 44 now. So I don't think 44 really is a ceiling for him.

But McCain's deeper problem is Obama is trending up too in these charts. Basically, according to the current Pollster charts the margin has been wiggling around +7 since 10/10 or so, but both candidates have been picking up support as undecideds get off the fence.

Drudge + FoxNews = desperation

Again, with the finger stuff? Come on! At least be original in your death throes.

@masselo

wow, that was a dirty trick i must say

masselo you SOB! ROFL Wow. My heart SANK.

Masselo!!!! because of you my coffee is all over my desk.

@abraxaf
Missouri is in my view the most difficult to pick. My feeling is that nominally it should go to McCain, but that the enthusiasm of the ground game there may actually pull it across the line tomorrow.

@masselo

I was about to vomit.

Yea masselo.I almost puked.

When are Rasmussen's releases due today? 6 p.m. Eastern again?

@masselo,

I almost had a panic attack!!!!!!!

Boomshak's page is hilarious - he is still trapped in 2004 - he is just replicating that result.

His racism really shows in his page though - pathetic.

come on guysssssssssssss-- i was just messing with yall -- yall cant even handle a joke -- America is about to elect obama the next president of the United States -- I think we should also have a little fun too .. relaxed we gonna win this thing

YES WE CAN !!!!!!! OBAMA/BIDEN 08

Well, FOX did find their poll, now that the in-house one isn't working out. Brace for it: "Candidates in Dead Heat Among Automobile Owners." Their firewall is in place for when TIPP goes to 5 or 6 later today ...

@DTM
I'm saying that there is a saturation point for M. it could be 44 or 44.5 or 45. and it seems that O is trending upwards.

Well, FOX did find their poll, now that the in-house one isn't working out. Brace for it: "Candidates in Dead Heat Among Automobile Owners." Their firewall is in place for when TIPP goes to 5 or 6 later today ...

@douglasdao:
Boomshak's page is hilarious - he is still trapped in 2004 - he is just replicating that result.

His racism really shows in his page though - pathetic.

Maybe Boom is channeling Jesse Helms.

PPP MO:

O - 49.4
M - 48.6

Yep.

Maybe after the election Missouri will just become two states with Kansas City as capital of West Missouri and St. Louis capital of East Missouri.

I have mentioned the Offshore market, and Iowa Electronic Markets in previous posts...but I thought it was worth mentioning again. A previous poster mentioned the current Intrade/BetFair Markets, but this the following is also some very exciting news for Obama supporters!

Iowa Electronic Market breaks the market action into "Vote Share" and "Winner Take All". The prices are as follows:

Vote Share:
O 54
M 47

Winner Take All:
O 92.9
M 11.2
(these do not have to add up to 100)

Offshore Market Prices:

Five Dimes:
O -1400
M +935

TheGreek
O -1450
M +940

Using a Moneyline to % calculation, the average price of the two books of Obama -1425 translates into Obama as a 93.4% favorite to win the election. It is worth noting that just four days ago the average price of these two books was Obama -700. How's that for a nice price increase?

OBAMA/BIDEN 2008!!

MO

16.5% 19-29s, 2004 exit 20%

Pretty much every state poll that shows age breakdown has 18-29 vote as a smaller proportion of the electorate compared to 2004 exits. surely youth turnout will at least be on par with 04

"Dewey1858:
@douglasdao:
Boomshak's page is hilarious - he is still trapped in 2004 - he is just replicating that result.

His racism really shows in his page though - pathetic."

That is not Boom's page. He lived in NC not NJ for one thing, and he wsnt a racist just a crazy right winger.

GUYS!!!!!!!

North Carolina FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 50, Obama 49 McCain +1

Virginia FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4

Missouri FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 49, Obama 49 Tie

Ohio FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 49, McCain 49 Tie

North Carolina FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 50, Obama 49 McCain +1

Virginia FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4

Missouri FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 49, Obama 49 Tie

guys -

I just found that page and joked it belongs to BOOMSHAK because it fits in some ways.

- party ID
- Bradley effect
- cherrypicking polls.

but I had a good laugh

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain in six of eight key battleground states one day before the U.S. election, including the big prizes of Florida and Ohio, according to a series of Reuters/Zogby polls released on Monday.

@alphamale

My point was that if you look at Pollster's charts, I think the better bet is that both Obama and McCain are trending up rather than that just Obama is trending up. Of course that is consistent with McCain eventually hitting a ceiling, namely when there are no more undecideds to allocate. But at around a 7 point margin and say 2-3 points for third parties at the most, you are talking more like 45-45.5 being McCain's ceiling in the national polls, rather than 44.

Not a big difference, of course, when it comes to result.

@jonny87

Younger voters are (relatively) more likely to show on ED, I reckon, for a variety of reasons not too hard to work out.

@RossPhx,

Don't put your hopes on Zogby, its polls are pretty crappy, especially at state level :-(

NC, OH, FL will be something to watch tomorrow.

Ohio FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 49, McCain 49 Tie

Florida FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 49, McCain 50 McCain +1

North Carolina FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 50, Obama 49 McCain +1

Virginia FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4

Colorado FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4

Missouri FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 49, Obama 49 Tie

Even though masselo was kidding (bad, BAD joke), I am preparing myself for less than stellar Obama numbers from Rasmussen. That's been a clear trend from them, probably in part because they don't include CPO folks in their surveys. So I'm planning to "add a few" for Obama to their upcoming numbers.

pfft! disappointing numbers

C'mon guys...these numbers are better than Mason-Dixon :-)

to get those numbers in fl dem party affiliation advanatge is probably around 2. Not what you would expect considering the early voting numbers

jonny,

If it is true that you can only make sense of national polls by intelligently aggregating them (and I think that has been amply demonstrated), then it is doubly true of state polls: small samples, no call-backs, no cell phones, etc.

When they're all in, we'll crunch the numbers. And then there is the real poll not too many hours away :-)

Oh, and I forgot -- grave difficulties with voter models.

In aggregate, however, state polls follow the national trend very closely (see Franklin's graph today).

@chaircat

Saying "Democrat Party" is all they have left. Same as the trolls saying "Barry".