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US: Obama 54, McCain 41 (CBSNYT-10/30-31)

Topics: PHome

CBS News
10/28-31/08 - 747 "Effective" Likely Voters (weighted value from a sample of 989 Registered Voters)
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

(CBS story, results; )

National
Obama 54, McCain 41
(10/25-29: Obama 52, McCain 41)

 

Comments
Gary Kilbride:

Obama missed the extra point

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Trosen:

hah..

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striatic:

this poll has a pretty strong house effect for Obama.

/blogs/house_effects_for_all_national.html

the most important thing here for Obama is the trend. up two points since the last poll CBSNYT posted.

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Atomique:

Even if this is reflecting a house effect of 5 points, I'll take an 8-point lead three days before the election.

Does anybody still really think McCain has a significant chance at winning this thing? Besides Sarah "I wanna get back to Michigan and I want to try" Palin, that is, who by her own admission does not look at the polls.

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tar_heel:

Atomique

Only if he somehow wins PA. Otherwise this thing is over.

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Unbiased08:

With two more days left until election day, none of the national polls out today had mccain any closer than 5 points. Three of the national polls out today had Obama's lead at at least 9 points. It's hard to see how where McCain goes from here.

Meanwhile, on the state level, I still haven't seen a single poll recently to put McCain closer than 4 points in PA, VA, CO, NV, or OH. McCain really needs 4 out of 5 of those to win the election.

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political_junki:

Survey USA New Mexico
Obama 52 McSame 45
60% Already voted among them Obama leads by 19%

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Thatcher:

@tar_heel -

and even then - Obama has so many paths to 270 that even if McCain pulled a miraculous upset in PA - McCain's chances still are probably no more than 1 in 10.

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straight talk:

ThE state polls will follow these national poll trends!

Obama is surging!.........

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Joey Skinz:

It will be VERY easy to point out the dumbest states in our Union after this election, just point to the states that landslide for mccain, ill omit states that are close even if mccain wins because the media has done a great job of fear mongering america to think that obama is a socialist/marxist/terrorist/drug addict/anti semite/muslim/un patriotic/gun abolishing/baby killing/arrogant blah blah blah blah

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KMartDad08:

Think Drudge will link to this poll tonight?

Evidently, Zogby's numbers don't look so good for McCain as Drudge still has last night's headline up there, and he links to a Gallup story about an Obama Blowout.

I can barely contain the glee.

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Joey Skinz:

Louianana says "repubs let us drown and wallow in our own filth lets vote for a repub again!!" Utah says "hey i have 5 wives and mccain has 2 wives, obama only has one, lets go with the candidate with more wives cause hes more like me" Idaho says "duh!!" Wyoming says...eh who cares about wyoming theres like 15 people there Alabama says "Obama reads books, i dont take kindly to those types round here" South Carolina says "White Power!" Kansas says "dinosaurs walked on the earth when the Egyptians where building pyramids" Tennesee says" Obama doesn't listen to country music so he doesn't support us" West Va says "I dont feel comfortable with a President who doesnt have to put on sunscreen lotion when he goes to the beach" Alaska says "We can see Russia from here!"

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Thatcher:

@Joey Skinz -

Now, I wouldn't say dumbest - just states that have are more underfunded in public education than the average state.

Of course - this is telling from 2004 ... http://www.globalconquest.ca/mt/blog/archives/nowm/2004election_by_iq.png

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carl29:

I don't know how accurate this pollster will be this year, but in 2004 they got it right.

CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28 - 10/30
Bush 50% Kerry 47%, Bush +3

*Again, we don't know if they are messing party ID, demographics or something else, but CBS/NYTimes has being pretty fear to Republicans.

In 2000,

CBS News 11/4-11/6 Bush 44 Gore 45

CBS News/NY Times 11/1-11/4 Bush 47 Gore 42

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KMartDad08:

Hey guys, I'm from KS and I'm a huge Obama supporter. My 18 y/o daughter cast her first vote for Obama last week. I'm really sorry that we won't turn blue this year, but we have a Dem gov, Dem A.G. and 2 Dem congressman (out of 4). So we're taking baby steps. But it doesn't help the cause for people to be insulting and demeaning. Even the Pubs in KS don't believe the earth is flat.

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asquared:

M picked up another point on PA Morning Call Tracker

O-52 M-45

Notable that O still steady at 52

http://www.mcall.com/all-pres-widgetlist,0,3165119.htmlstory

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mysticlaker:

Iowa:

Selzer Poll

Obama/Biden 54 - The Joker/Catwoman 37

I am glad Palin is there on Monday.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=iowapoll08

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carl29:

KMartDad08,

You are right, and sorry if some times we get a little "agitated" when discussing our point of views. Thanks for your support and keep it up :-)

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KMartDad08:

No sweat, carl29. I get caught up in the rhetoric myself!

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Ulysses:
I no longer feel disgust for my erstwhile hero, John McCain, and his okaying ads that promote some of the most outrageous lies I've seen in any political campaign. I just feel complete and utter sadness about what has become of a man I once held in high regard. Today he began attacking Obama's patriotism: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/01/mccain-attacks-obamas-pat_n_140006.html

But what's even more pitiful?

...Palin has managed to start jettisoning McCain from her rallies: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/01/mccain-attacks-obamas-pat_n_140006.html

The whole thing is grotesque.
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Pro-America_Anti-America:

@asquared

McCain has to hit a wall eventually if Obama numbers stay solid.

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asquared:

Pro-America_Anti-America:
@asquared

McCain has to hit a wall eventually if Obama numbers stay solid.

------

Agree, I don't think it will be an issue, but I still wish they would spend a little more time in PA.

When I think about it, if I were looking at these number from the other side I would be pretty sure the situation was hopeless this late in the game.

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Incumbent:

@KMartDad08

I second carl29's statement. I live in CA and I myself get sick of people pigeonholing everyone here as a "latte-sipping liberal", so I can totally understand where you're coming from. In solidarity.

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sunnymi:

@mysticlaker, you said "I am glad Palin is there on Monday."

It is obvious..she is running a campaign to shore up her support in various states to help her political career in the the future..not for this election..look at what they did at her FL rally today where McCain's name was hard to be found.

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Thatcher:

@Joey Skinz, KMartDad08:

Here's my prediction for 2008 results (along with statewide IQ scores - now, these are averages - So there are always those that offset the ones with higher IQ's).

http://www.thatcherwilliams.com/2008iqprediction.jpg

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political_junki:

Does any body know what time does morning calls PA tracking poll get updated?

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political_junki:

"asquared:
M picked up another point on PA Morning Call Tracker
O-52 M-45
Notable that O still steady at 52
http://www.mcall.com/all-pres-widgetlist,0,3165119.htmlstory
"

This show O52 M 44, where do you get 45 from?

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carl29:

@Thatcher,

Good!! Very generous :-)

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jswarren:

As long as Obama keeps his 52, I'll just assume the real poll is 52-48. I'm happy with that.

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jswarren:

I'm not worried about the polls in PA. I'm worried about 10 hour lines, machine breakdowns, and voter suppression. I assume the Sec of State for PA has already written his/her letter of resignation and sent out resumes.

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Cho:

@junki: It is updated, the link shows 52-45 for me, maybe a problem with your browser.

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political_junki:

But I still see Obama 52 McCain 44 not 45? How come?
http://www.mcall.com/all-pres-widgetlist,0,3165119.htmlstory

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carl29:

@jswarren,

Agree :-)

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political_junki:

Yup! Got it :) Thanx

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carl29:

@jswarren,

The problem for Republicans is that they don't control the Governorship in PA, as they did in OH in 2004 and FL in 2000.

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jswarren:

Who cares whether it's 52-45 or 52-44? There are now 2 days until the election, and Obama is still at 52. Any undecideds that Obama picks up are just a bonus.

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carl29:

Has the Drudge released Zogby numbers? Why so quiet :-)? Um...

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political_junki:

Tomorrow will be a lot of state polls, cant wait :)
PA will be down the wire, I am just happy the BigO isnt going down. Lets ee where VA is tomorrow...

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jswarren:

And if Obama holds the 52, that would be more than Kerry got.

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carl29:

@jswarren,

My gut feeling is that the final score in PA will be O. 53% M. 47% or O. 52% M. 48%. Although I think that McCain numbers could be lower due to "undecided" voting for a third party candidate, disgusted by Obama and McCain, or staying home.

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RfrancisR:

Joey Skinz:
Louianana says "repubs let us drown and wallow in our own filth lets vote for a repub again!!"


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Most of the state of Louisiana hates New Orleans. The state of Louisiana got their jollies from watching New Orleans drown. Obama will win 65-70% of the vote in New Orleans.

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Completely off subject.

Just spoke to my 70 yr old Mother half a continent away in SC. Both she and my 101 yr old, independent, Daughter of the Confederacy, Daughter of the American Revolution, Colonial Dame, great grandmother cast absentee ballots for Barak Obama. My mother's recount of my grandmother's sentiments was "I don't care if he's Purple, if he gets Bush and his kind out of office."

These two votes show that "truth is stranger than fiction."

We Lubbockites are enjoying the UT demise. Sleep well all, work GOTV next week.

Porter

BTW:read the book about my character to better understand the psychy of the southerner generations that have raised their children and grandchildren to accept decent people regardless of race.

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jswarren:

Of course the lines could work in Obama's favor. If you are still undecided, are you really going to wait 5 hours in line to vote for McCain when you just decided to vote for him 5 minutes ago?

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carl29:

Porter_Osborne,

Give them a hug and a kiss as soon as see them. God Bless their hearts :-)

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burrito:


To everyone (in ref to KMartDad08's comment):

Not a few days ago Mark disabled comments due to inappropriate comments by someone. Obama tells us that there are no "Red States" or "Blue States", there is only the "United States". I know that it is difficult for some (including myself) to forget the last 8 years ... but we must stop this name calling ... with 3 days to go to election day, we must start thinking ahead on how to heal this country of ours ... regardless of partisanship ... if you want to make a difference go out and VOTE!! if you have already voted, go get some other people to VOTE!!

FOR THE CHANGE WE NEED!! YES WE CAN!!

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carl29:

@jswarren,

You are getting the point. If you hate Obama, you are already for McCain and ready to vote; however, if you neither like nor hate any of the guys, most probable you won't be willing to stand in line for hours to cast you ballot.

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Lou-NH:

for what it's worth. I think PA is almost done tightening. It was ineitable given all the money and time the repubs put into it only to lose. It was the perfect trap if you want to look at it in a different way. The party ID is well in Obama's advantage and I believe it will end at +5% giving McCain the bulk of the undecideds and a few points for the 3rd party players.

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jswarren:

Yeah, see that's why I never buy all this Bradley effect stuff, and even think with some it may have worked in reverse, mainly with the Angry Hillary Women. Hillary's voters were MAD AS HELL and not going to take it anymore. If a pollster called them, would they feel like they would appear racist if they told polsters they were voting for McCain? NO WAY. They would go out of their way to tell people how angry they were, and that they "were serious about voting for McCain.

Of course, these women are MILITANTLY PRO-CHOICE and care about that issuse far more than Obama's voters. When they are alone in the voting booth are they really going to vote to revere Roe v Wade? NO WAY?
Will they admit they were just bluffing and overreacted? NO WAY. They come out of the voting both and still tell people they voted for McCain.

REVERSE BRADLEY EFFECT
Of course, it now appears that these Hillary women have openly kissed and made up even to pollsters.

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@carl29
Will do for you and for me.

There are lots of good people in places that progressives consider backwaters. I hope the new majority remembers that and does not alienate them by treating them as rubes, simply for being from rural areas.

Porter

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carl29:

Have anybody heard about Zogby at the Drudge? Um...

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johncoz:

@carl29:
"Have anybody heard about Zogby at the Drudge?"

As I noted the other day, Zog now has the embarrassment of having this outlier (which he stupidly advertised to the world via Drudge) in his figures until Tuesday morning, when he will no doubt come out with a rather handsome margin for Obama.

And that despite his nonsensical party weighting.

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carl29:

@johncoz,

Yeah, I agree with you that Zogby most probable felt like the odd man in the room with his poll vs. the other pollsters.

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ThisLandIsMyLand:

the problem with the lines is that they are always in urban areas, where democrats vote. The rural and suburban people rarely ever wait on line. Some people see lines as a sign of enthusiasm, but often it's just disorganization and incompetence (and not enough voting machines and active voter supression) holding things up. 8 hour lines (hell 2 hour lines) should not be tolerated. It shouldn't be that hard to vote. Many working people cannot take off that much time from work!

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BlixaCat:

Zogby just went to 6, 50-44. That's why no Drudge running his mouth.

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