ABC News / Washington Post
10/18-21/08; 1,330 LV, 2.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
Obama 54, McCain 43
I was waiting for something like this after Boomshak's last national poll commentary. : )
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:11 PM
Paul Begala called the race weeks ago. I'm starting to wish I would have put some of my stock money with him.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:12 PM
Whatever happened to McCain's "polls are tightening" theory?
Another desperate MSM-biased bullsh*t poll.
The fact that the pollsters using both landlines and cellphones (which are more expensive, apparently, to poll) are showing higher numbers for Obama may be significant. My understanding is that the Wash Post/ABC poll, Gallup, and CBS/NYT are using both rather than relying on landlines. Does anyone know if this is correct?
Wow, McCain is really closing the gap.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:13 PM
The new AP Poll uses cellphones as well.
BOOMSHACK is RASMUSSEN A BIASED POLL? JUST CURIOUS!
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:14 PM
Yeah, that blasted liberal media distorting the facts! Fox has this race much closer, O+9. That's what I am talking about.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:15 PM
Five days after Rep. Michele Bachmann went on a McCarthy-esque rant suggesting Barack Obama was unpatriotic and urging the major newspapers of the country to investigate anti-American sentiment in Congress, the national Republican political parties are running for cover.
Two sources aware of ad buys in Minnesota say that the National Republican Congressional Committee is pulling its media purchases from Bachmann's race. If true, it is a remarkable fall for a congresswoman who, until recently, seemed relatively safe in her predominantly conservative district. The race had become closer in recent days -- the NRCC had transferred funds from Rep. Erik Paulsen (MN-03) to Bachmann a little over a week ago.
In the days following her appearance on Hardball, however, Bachmann has watched as her challenger, El Tinklenberg raised more than a million dollars off her incendiary remarks. That surge in fundraising put Bachmann's re-election in a far less certain position. Bachmann tried to stem the bleeding by telling the press she was sorry for her remarks. But with the national party now apparently pulling the plug, the situation has gone from bad to worse.
The new AP poll also has a sample size of 800 and 44% of the sample identifies as born-again or evangelicals. Talk about fail.
THE WEIRDEST PART:
I can't recall any Presidential election where concurrent National Polls were 12 and 13 points apart less than 2 weeks before an election.
Also, the internals of these polls are telling COMPLETELY different stories.
Well, SOMEBODY is VERY wrong. I guess we'll find out who.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:16 PM
Yes the MSM liberal s are biaising everything, even in 11/4 they'll give a biased result with BO winning.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:17 PM
The new AP poll has Obama with a 10 point lead among registered voters which is all the respondents (over 1100). You have to read the actual
Boomshak proposes turning the whole "outlier" concept on it's head. Now, the ONLY legitimate poll is the ONE that shows McCain 1 point back. The 17 other polls that show Obama ahead by an average of 7 points are all BS. But of course, when AP showed Obama +7 last month, THAT one was BS.
There is only one "desperate" candidate with desperate supporters, and it's pretty obvious who that is.
Both Pollster and RCP have their polling composites showing Obama at 50% or greater now.
Actually, lets both agree that the-middle of the road Rassmussen is the best criteria,
Do you agree BOOM?
I don't believe so, but I have noticed that Rasmussen always lags the trend by a day or two.
I am guessing that two more national polls will fall into the MOE tomorrow. We'll see.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:19 PM
Just curious. What were the "undecideds" in this poll? I'd like to compare that to the AP poll.
Give it up already, McTitanic is sinking and there's nothing you can do about that, if I were you I would start seeking another job because it's getting more and more obvious that you're gonna be laid off on Nov 5th
You can spin some polls all of the time and all polls some of the time but you cannot spin ALL POLLS ALL OF THE TIME
BTW: Your buddy Fox released a pretty much same result as this ABC's , +9 for Obama
Don't you believe in your buddy FOX anymore?
By the way, Obama leads by 5 among registered voters in that AP poll. Any likely voter model that undercuts Obama's lead is absurd in a year where Dems have an astronomical advantage in enthusiasm and organization.
So an intellectually honest look at the race, based on the bible of all polls - the AP poll - would be Obama is ahead by a MINIMUM Of 5 points. Obama will crush McCain in the turnout battle, and early voting tallies are proving that.
"I am guessing that two more national polls will fall into the MOE tomorrow. We'll see.". there is medical word for this. Masochism.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:20 PM
The new AP poll has Obama with a 10 point lead among all the respondents - 47% to 37%. Of course Boomshak and the Fox and Friends only want you to see the Likely Voters section.
Actually of the three network polls ABC has a record of being by far the most accurate. When McCain concedes on elction night Boomshack will announce that McCain was replaced by a double and the real McCain kidnnapped so he couldn't tell how he knew the election was a fraud.
Some people live in fantasy land and they should be allowed to remain there undisturbed.
Pollsters need credibility. The numbers will tighten, so don't start dancing in the streets yet.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:21 PM
"I am guessing that two more national polls will fall into the MOE tomorrow. We'll see."
I see you use "GUESS" now instead of "PREDICT" :)
Very political of you ;)
Anyone realize that every day that passes statistically it becomes more impossible for a McCain comeback? I'm lovin' this!
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:22 PM
Boom's like the boy who cried wolf. No matter what he says, he has no credibility whatsoever, so nobody will believe him.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:23 PM
OK KIDS! IT's TIME FOR LET's FIND THE OUTLIER!
FOX News 10/20 - 10/21 936 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
Rasmussen Reports 10/19 - 10/21 3000 LV 2.0 51 45 Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/19 - 10/21 1208 LV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/19 - 10/21 2384 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/19 - 10/21 2299 LV 2.0 52 44 Obama +8
Hotline/FD 10/19 - 10/21 782 LV 3.5 47 42 Obama +5
ABC News/Wash Post 10/18 - 10/21 1330 LV 2.5 54 43 Obama +11
IBD/TIPP 10/17 - 10/21 1088 LV 3.0 46 42 Obama +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 1159 RV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
GWU/Battleground 10/15 - 10/21 1000 LV 3.1 49 47 Obama +2
Associated Press/GfK 10/16 - 10/20 800 LV 3.5 44 43 Obama +1
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16 - 10/20 773 LV 3.5 50 42 Obama +8
CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV 2.5 53 39 Obama +14
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:24 PM
PRAISE BE TO BOOMSHAK. ALL MIGHT SEER! ALL PRAISE BOOMSHAK.
BOOMSHAK, the man and the freeper
BOOMSHAK, the cut and paster
BOOMSHAK, the main stream media destroyer
BOOMSHAK, the enemy of Bill Moyers
PRAISE HIM WITH GREAT PRAISE
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:25 PM
Yeah PortlandRocks this is great. It makes it all the better watching Bookshak, Keyes, ect. flounder.
When the vast majority of the polls indicate a significant gap (such as here), and the vast majority of that majority is reputed to be reasonably reliable (again such as here), and the polls that indicate a narrower gap are conducted by outfits of little provenance or reputation here (GfK), and there are obvious flaws in the latter's methodology, it is reasonable to assume that the latter are outliers. Of course, boom, if you have evidence that the latter polls are more correct, please provide it and we will take your McCain cheerleading seriously.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:26 PM
I predict you'll be crying in your bong Nov 5th.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:27 PM
Things are looking pretty obvious, at least for today.. Another day..
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:28 PM
The current POLLING RANGE is O+1 to O+14.
Man, that's nuts.
Seems he's been hitting the booze a little too hard today.
boomshak aww Boom. Keep graspin'. You can't even win your own damn state!
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:29 PM
Boy If McCain is losing Virginia like this so late! THis race is over! National is good because it is always backed up by state polls! Look for OBama to be up by 5% in Florida by next wk!
Once again. Take an average of ALL polls. And that's about right historically. In 2004 Bush AVERAGED 1.5%. Guess what? He won by 1.5%
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:31 PM
Bookshak, I'd say the current range is more like +5 to +10.
That one poll was started almost a week ago for gods sake.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:32 PM
JUST HEARD FROM INSIDE SOURCE:
Major Obama scandal coming out in the next few days. Major. Huge. Developing...
Remember boomshaks "Romney will beat McCain"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "surge"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "tied race by Sunday?" fail.
Remember boomshaks "suspending McCains campaign is brilliant"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "McCain will look like he saved the economy by going back to Washington"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "attack Obama on Ayers is the way to go"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "McCain will destroy Obama in the debates"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "McCain won the first debate"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "McCain won the second debate"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "McCain won the third debate"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "Palin is an awesome pick"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "I have the gold question that will destroy Obama" which had already been answered? fail.
Pathetic. Epic Fail.
How can 1 person be wrong about EVERYTHING?
@Tony in Texas:
The headline for the AP Poll states is a close race. Can't blame Boom for that one.
The three most accurate pollsters in the Dem Primaries...were actually SurveyUSA, Rasmussen and believe it or not after his California debacle, Zogby.
There is no way I would attempt to call this election.
This is what scares me about Obama and the polls:
From the Political Wire:
"With Sen. John McCain making a new push in his state, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) "has sent two separate memos to the Obama campaign in the past five days requesting that the Democratic Presidential candidate -- as well as Hillary and Bill Clinton -- return to campaign in Pennsylvania," CNN reports.
Said Rendell: "I don't want to be selfish. But I'm still a little nervous, so I have asked Obama to come back. We understand he's got demands from 20 different states, but we'd like to see him here."
And then I read this:
David Abecunas, a 35-year-old firefighter, voted for Sen. Clinton in the primaries, saying he "trusted her more" than Sen. Obama. He plans to vote for Sen. McCain in November. Mr. Abecunas's wife, Amy, is still undecided.
"It's more popular to support Obama," Ms. Abecunas, an avid fan of Sen. Clinton, said at a McCain rally here. "And I think when people actually go to vote, they will choose McCain in private, you know what I mean?"
Asked if she thought race was a factor, Ms. Abecunas said: "Yeah, I do. I think there's some people that might agree with what Obama says, but just can't vote for him." Ms. Abecunas also suggested some people might support Mr. Obama based on his race alone."
That even makes me nervous.
the AP poll that has 44% born again evangelicals. Last election, it was half the percentage.
If Obama wins over McCain by 1 % in this poll, I guess I welcome this poll with open arms.
boomshak acutally I'll be celebrating with my bong!
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:33 PM
If Boom spent this time phonebanking he might help McCain in NC. Instead he spews crap and wacks off all day.
Check out the on the new road article on 538 to see why obama is wiping the floor of the dynamic duo in VA (and elsewhere)
It would almost be sad, but it's not!
Praise boomshak with great praise!
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:34 PM
Today Palin said the outcome of the election is "in God's hands".
Which is Republican code for "You GOP Secretaries of State better start purging those voter rolls!"
11% and 9% may be high, but the 2% and 1% polls from this morning seem totally inconsistent with the state-by-state polls weighted for population size. Texas is the only really big state in which McCain has a substantial lead, and that is far outweighed by Obama's large leads in California, New York, Illinois, Michigan and a more modest lead in Pennsylvania and good leads in mid-size states like Wisconsin, Minnesota, Washington and Colorado. Does this make sense?
Batony once again we're talking about those "MAGIC" internals. I tried with Boom and got no answer so now I'll try with you. BATONY explain how these INTERNALS are configured. GO!
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:35 PM
So given the spread between recent polls is it reasonable to assume that the difference lies in the assumptions being made about turnout, age, race, party and geographic distribution? If so can anybody point to explanations of same for each pollster?
As an engineer not a pollster it seems to me that without an understanding of method it's next to impossible to judge credibility or am I missing something?
John (a recovering engineer)
I imagine the fear for the G.O.P. is it will lose this one big. It really hasn't done that since 1964. Even in 1996, when Clinton beat Dole by eight points, he still only had 47% of the total vote.
It the G.O.P. takes something along the lines of a 10-point thrashing this year and then in four years has to go up against a President who almost invariably will get to claim we're better off than when he took office, that could alter the electoral map for the next generation.
Economic, defense and social conservatives were always a volatile mix and they've mostly been held together because it's proven a winning formula. What happens when the winning goes away? Can that coalition survive a thumping or two?
I'm not saying that Obama definitely will win in a waltz, but I imagine conservatives are terrified at the very real prospect of it. This could be the end of the comfort they've enjoyed for the better part of four decades.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:37 PM
"Remember boomshaks "Palin is an awesome pick"? fail."
Maybe he meant "awesome prick"?
boom, can you give us another prediction, please?
RCP's current national poll average is 7.0. That is essentially right between todays outliers of +1 and +14 for Obama. So things are steady as she goes.
They've done it. The McCain campaign has gone and pissed off Miss Virginia.
When McCain senior adviser Nancy Pfotenhauer divided Virginia into the DC suburbs and "real Virginia," Kristi Lauren Glakas felt extremely disappointed. Glakas, a recent three-time Miss Virginia title holder and whip-smart University of Virginia scholarship honor student, said the comments were divisive.
"What offended me and made me sad about those comments," said Glakas, a resident for many years in northern Virginia, "is that I've been to every county, every part of this state. What's best about Virginia is its diversity. The people, the geography. We have every class, every race, an amazing immigrant population... Virginia is the birthplace of America. To say that part of Virginia is not part of the real America is just offensive."
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:38 PM
McCain is at 12.4 on Intrade. Is that a record you stupid bastard!!!
Even if we give him the benefit of the doubt on that one, boomshak has been wrong about everything else.
The fact that he thinks McCain is going to win is the best reason yet why it wont happen.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:39 PM
sign sealed delivered lol!
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:40 PM
On another note, I really think that $150,000 in clothing and accessories makes Palin representative of Jane Sixpack and Wasilla Main Street. That amount could buy Wasilla Main Street. Palin's about as authentic as Bush's faux-Texas accent. It's a shame these people who love them so much left their bull****-meters at home. These people would piss on your leg, tell you it's raining and then hit you up for a contribution for washing you down.
At this point, two things may happen :
1- There is a real risk obama leaners tend to stay at home because they think it's won. obama really need to find the words to keep them mobilized.
2- I guess some top republicans are starting to wonder wether the party should still spend its money in the presidential campaign. They'll thinks that if the white house is lost, it's better to use all ressources to save some senate seats.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:42 PM
I am almost tempted to buy mccain at 12....Someone talk me down.
Boomshak thinks exactly like the idiots who are losing the election for McCain, all verbal attacks and no substance. He is irrelevant to rational conversation. Same for keysisawesome. You can't really call it dialogue, more like epithetalogue. They are unthinkingly for the mcCain/unAble ticket.
Hey Palin ran Wasiilla into a 25 million dollar debt. WHY NOT THE GOP TOO! HAHAHAHAHA!
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:43 PM
Didn't John Edwards get burned at the stake for having a 400$ haircut? This make that look like Pluto next to Jupiter.
"JUST HEARD FROM INSIDE SOURCE"
Your only inside source is your delusional brain :)
Booms insider source is free republic.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:45 PM
absolutely. At least most of the people on this site, though admittedly biased, ATTEMPT to be fair while engaging in discussion.
Boomshak just spews diarrhea from his mouth and has absolutely no credibility at all.
I can pretty much guarantee that Obama will win over 50% of the popular vote simply because boomshak said it won't happen.
I predict you'll be crying in your bong Nov 5th. "
Thanks, now that you have predicted it, I know it is gonna happend. But I would really love to see you cursing and trolling in right-wing forums when US has a
**Liberal Senate **
**Liberal Congress **
Last not least
** LIBERAL SUPREME COURT**
I would pay $10000 to see your face at that time :)))
@NWPatrick (aka Portland Rocks)
Why are you asking me about internals? I just quoted the article...I have been begging to see internals. For instance Sarah Palin is spending all day Saturday in Iowa...again b/c "their" internals claim it is close there.
Be careful when talking about Palin and her quote about "God's hands". My mother who is an avid Obama supporter, even believes Palin is a woman of God. So liberals need to be careful there.
Every time a poll comes out showing Obama with a doublde digit lead here in Va, why don't people here just roll there eyes and say it is much closer than that?
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:46 PM
ROFLMAO! Boom has an inside source?? lol! Must be the same people that found WMDs.
Every time a poll comes out showing Obama with a double digit lead here in Va, why do people here just roll there eyes and say it is much closer than that? Some people act like it is just impossible to believe Obama could actually when in Va.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:47 PM
Where is the WSJ POLL? They have to release it around now right?
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:48 PM
you're right, how shameful of us. Since most polls show Obama with a big lead in VA, every new one that comes out confirming it should result in us rolling our eyes because you said so.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:50 PM
Are you from VA?
If yes can you give me a feeling of what is going on there?
Hey Boom. Did you know Obama is tied or ahead in the last FIFTEEN, yes 15 polls of NC? WOW! You should get off your fat ass and help Grandpa out!
Sorry to go off topic (and to blow my own trumpet) but I just noticed that my prediction about the Northwestern states continues to come true. The most recent South Dakota poll from Mason-Dixon a few days ago showed Obama only 7 behind McCain. Not as dramatic as the change in North Dakota, but still a 10-point improvement on a month ago. Play the Electoral College game, Barack, and throw some money at these states and Montana which are so sparsely populated (and not as entrenched as some southern states) and you may pick up 9 handy EVs for a reasonable price - they look like they want to go Dem, they just need you to show them some love.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:51 PM
Wasnt the WSJ poll with NBC news, the one last night? What are you talking about?
Ok I'll bite. What's this Huge, massive, explosive scandal coming out about Obama?
At least a little tease?
"Well, SOMEBODY is VERY wrong. I guess we'll find out who."
Based on the trend line and previous posts, I'm betting that's gonna be you.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:53 PM
wow... general powell officially sunk the republican... he gave the right to everyone to open the Palin discussion again when he said she was unqualified... payback is a you know what
Doesnt NBC release a tracking poll every day at 5:30 EST? or maybe i am wrong
I think I prefer Boomshak's parody twin, Boomshack, who made an appearance last night:
"The abstentee registration tends to favor Republicans, and that's the early voting you are thinking about because Republicans have more money and travel more and are more busy in general. But with the early voting, a lot of Republicans are now in wheelchairs, and you are forgetting that. Wheelchairs in general take longer to get around in. Of course it depends on a wheelchair.
"Republicans also need more time to weigh their voting decision because they take their vote seriously. This year especially many Republicans are extra slow to come to McCain's side because he is such a maverick. That slow speed is reflected in all the polls.
"Even if you compare an elephant and a donkey, a donkey would be a lot faster than an elephant because an elephant is larger and it takes him more time to get there."
Oh the scandal is probably the right wing but bags website/blogger scandal about Obama's citizenship. It's complete bull****.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:54 PM
Tivia for you guys.
When was the last time that the Republicans won the White House without a Bush or Nixon on the ticket?
80 years ago – 1928 (Herbert Hoover)
GOP wins only:
2004 – Bush Jr.
2000 – Bush Jr.
1988 – Bush Sr.
1984 – Bush Sr. (VP)
1980 – Bush Sr. (VP)
1972 – Nixon
1968 – Nixon
1956 – Nixon (VP)
1952 – Nixon (VP)
1928 – Hoover
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:55 PM
political_junki the NBC WSJ poll isn't a tracker:) God we don't want any more!
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:56 PM
FROM GALLUP: DON'T EXPECT YOUNG VOTERS TO MAKE AS MUCH A DIFFERENCE AS YOU MIGHT THINK
Gallup Poll daily tracking suggests that 18- to 29-year-olds are not nearly as likely as older voters to be registered to vote, to say they are thinking about the election, or to express strong intentions to vote. Thus, as of mid-October, there is not convincing evidence in the Gallup data that young voters will in fact vote at higher rates than in past elections. But even if things change over the next two weeks and many more young adults do become motivated to vote, turnout alone would do little to change the candidates' overall support, according to Gallup's likely voter models.
Gallup will continue to monitor the responses of 18- to 29-year-olds to the likely voter questions between now and Election Day to see whether the current situation changes.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:57 PM
That was funny :))
boomshak WOW. So his lead is THIS BIG withouth the youth vote? Thanks for proving that for us!
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:58 PM
Ok, but Gallup's models still have Obama winning. Are you saying they are contradicting their own polls?
Nope. That's not it. I know what it is but I'm not tellin. It's pretty damaging and I'm not sure Obama will be able to recover.
Posted on October 22, 2008 5:59 PM
I think what boomshak is trying to say is that he is an idiot.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:00 PM
I just crapped my pants. I am so scared.
I'm here in Northern Va and no one thinks it's no where near a 10 point spread. I remember leaving the office the other day and I quoted the Rasmussen Poll to an Obama supporter, an older white lady and she told me "oh it's closer than that". And this is why...
"And although he enjoys strong support in heavily Democratic Northern Virginia, near Washington, D.C., the southern and more rural areas of the state remain outside his grasp.
The difference between these voters is literally the difference between North and South. But the difference is also manifested in other ways. It is much more than Democrat and Republican."
"But for Mr. Obama to win Virginia, he has to win over those voters outside of his northern base, who live in the working class and agricultural areas that he earlier alienated. His characterization of rural Western Pennsylvania voters as "bitter" and "clinging to guns and religion" and unwilling to vote for people who do not look like them went a long way toward turning this voting bloc against him.
These are the same type of voters - coal miners, rod setters, pipe fitters, cashiers, factory workers and clerks who many Democrats have already labeled as racist. People like Massachusetts AFL-CIO president Robert Haynes and other union leaders who have said they are worried racism among working-class white people could hurt Mr. Obama's chances. This echoed comments by Democratic Party politicians such as U.S. Rep. John Murtha, D-12th , who represents an area in Southwestern Pennsylvania.
Bridging the gap with these people will not be easy because of these statements.
This is why Mr. Obama has made numerous trips to Virginia since the convention in August. He was in Roanoke last week. Today he will be holding an afternoon rally in Richmond and one in the evening in Leesburg, outside Washington, D.C. in suburban Loudoun County. His objective is to change his elite image.
Ordering lunch at Shoney's might help his chances."
But for Mr. Obama to win Virginia, he has to win over those voters outside of his northern base, who live in the working class and agricultural areas that he earlier alienated. His characterization of rural Western Pennsylvania voters as "bitter" and "clinging to guns and religion" and unwilling to vote for people who do not look like them went a long way toward turning this voting bloc against him.
I'm serious. I'm curious now to know that what scandal you're talking about. You can't throw that out there and then ignore it. That's worse than a dancer poppin a squat on your jock and then the bartender sportin last call.
I'm curious. Email me if you want to keep it a secret. But you put it out there.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:01 PM
Nice to see Obama's number get so close to 55 on a poll. Will be interesting to see if other polls head in that direction. I would think that's a good "goal" for Obama, however ultimately unlikely it might be (I'm guessing 52-53), and maybe in part what he hopes his national address in a week will push him towards.
Haha, everyone gives Boomshak way too much attention than he deserves.
The national polls at this point will hold for about two days than began tightening, but only slightly. The average of now is 5-8 including probably 3% MoE.
Next week the average for Obama's lead will be 4-6 with a 2% MoE.
Expect more state polls to come out the next week showing a traction for Obama.
Florida: 2 point increase from his already two point lead.
Ohio: Right now it's tied in Ohio, you can expect it to probably bump up some by a point or two but not by much.
Pennsylvania: Polls other than the Morning Tracker will come out showing a 6-12 point lead.
Virginia: I think Virginia will tighten from it's 8-10 point lead that Obama has down to a 3-4% lead.
North Carolina: It'll probably stay balanced at a 2% spread for Obama.
Indiana: Will begin to increase in it's support for McCain.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:03 PM
Guys, I have an insider source about a McCain scandal that will hit the papers tomorrow.
Its HUGE and it will END his campaign. I'm not telling what it is though. It will be far more damaging to McCain if he is involved in a scandal that no one knows about.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:04 PM
Also, Colorado will steady at a 6% hold for Obama but I think Nevada will begin to trend Republican in the final days of the election as well as Missouri.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:07 PM
What makes you think that about Nevada?
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:08 PM
McCain doesn't need a minor scandal to end his campaign, he can't keep up with Obama's ground game or his cash advantage.
Plus, I don't believe you.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:09 PM
Dems are so nervous! Everyone is saying that Virginia will tightened! The 1 poll that was from Mason dixon showed a 5+ swing to Obama! McCain is not HIllary Clinton! He is not even Bush! There is no way Bush would be down by 10+ this late in the Game! People are making up there mind and voting! There are rumors out there that are saying that the McCain campaign is infighting amongnst themselves! LAndslidE ALERT! REmember is CO goes Obama! He is the next President without VA! Va is GRAVY!
Dude you've become the official boomstupid archivist. You should go ahead and write a book.
Maybe "I may always be wrong but at least I'm on the right"
Or how about "I'm always wrong, you're always right and how I've learned to loathe myself without ever really shutting up"
Ooh ooh I know.
"Being wrong for dummies"
If the GOP releases anything outside of the usual negatives attacking Obama as Boomshak says while he is in Hawaii...it'll be the end of the GOP as we know it... Picture this Obama next to his dying white grandmothers bed and MCCain with some out of left field non-issues oriented swipe.... Bring it on... McCain's timing has been off this entire election... this will be the mother of it all
Boomy if you have any pull tell the "insiders" to wait till OBAMA comes back from Hawaii...after he's banked enough early votes so that the attack is ineffective anyway.... you guys just cant win huh?!?! hehehehe
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:10 PM
@ Working Class
A gut feeling because Obama has been polling to well with the overall internals from that state.
He does well in Las Vegas and with the small rural latino communities but overall there's some screwy internals.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:13 PM
I live in Fl, and just voted early!
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:16 PM
The rumor is that this is EXACTLY why he is going to Hawaii right now. He KNOWS the sh*t is comin down and he wants a sympathy cover.
I have no personal opinion on that, I'm just telling you what I'm hearing.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:19 PM
So I see boomshak is too chicken to email me?
What about Washoe county? It's typically been Republican territory but it's going Obama's way in the polls this year. This place is f*cked out here man. We have what's called Foreclosure Cities and Parking Lot Subdivisions -- people live in their cars in large parking lots like at Wal Mart or the casinos.
Plus we have a lot of transplants here in the last 5 years that are more liberal. We'll see but I think Nevada will vote for Obama.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:21 PM
This damaging news is NOT coming from the McCain Campaign. He has no control over what these people do or say.
If it is true (and it seems to be), it could be a rough few days for Obama.
P.S., Can't Obama multi-task? I thought Presidents had to be able to?
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:22 PM
I think Obama is probably going to come back from Hawaii with a renewed emotional ferocity because of his ailing grandmother.
So he'll probably score some value/likability factor with the American people.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:23 PM
Why the hell should I tell you? Just wait a few days. You won't be able to NOT hear about it. Even the MSM won't be able to keep a lid on this one.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:24 PM
Boom is the best.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:26 PM
Have you added this to your ongoing list of boomstutter predictions that we are still waiting on?
How exciting for you, yet another chance to look like a complete idiot. You must thank Dog everyday for the annonymity of the Internet. If you had to actually attach you name to some of this, we'd all think you were Dick Morris.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:27 PM
If there is any message that they think will be damaging to Obama they would have brought it out by now! Early voting is already taking place! Why wait!
Cant wait to hear... the big news....
As for multitasking.. you are not being for real...
Anyway, you can rack up one more vote for OBAMA/BIDEN today... I have joined the ranks of the early-voted... sucks that I live in illinois though....shucks shouldve taken that job in atlanta
Boom is it Acorn? No....Rev Wright?...NO Arveys? No... The "I hate whity" video? No... Getting a little bored with this.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:29 PM
Any rumors saying something bad is coming the end of the week for Obama is nothing but Republican's trying to cling to whatever hopes they have left.
Obama will have nothing but positive press coverage and that's good news for him.
The McCain campaign will have to deal with Troopergate, Palin's spending spree on her clothes for 150,000 and 14,000 make-up. And you know McCain will try some big stunt to stay in the media like he always does which will end up hurting his campaign even more.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:31 PM
Probably that Obama doesn't have a birth certificate or was caught with a dead hooker in the trunk of his hatch-back. Whatever it is I'm sure it will be just like the last 75K predictions that boomdupe has put out there.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:32 PM
Boom is it Acorn? No....Rev Wright?...NO Arveys? No... The "I hate whity" video? No... Getting a little bored with this.
Nope, none of that.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:33 PM
You know I have to hand it to boomtoad. No matter what else he doesn't know about he sure does know how to market.
A little tease of for his latest stupidity will have everyone in here waiting to smack him down with bated breath.
For once he did something right. Maybe he isn't as stupid as I thought... Nah!
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:37 PM
If the Republicans have anything on Obama they would have used BEFORE early voting started. Who are you guys trying to kid?
And as far as the 'Michelle Obama "Whitey" Video', it's nothing. She's saying, "Why'd He" referring to George W. Bush. The Media is on Obama's side obviously and they will debunk it before it even starts to spread.
McCain's republican party is running out of time, running out of ideas and running out congressional seats(lol).
Ok whatever Boomshak. We will see, won't we? I'll give you this. If it truly is something so horrific to bring down his campaign AND it's true, then ok he deserves not to be president. But if this is something that is a lie and brought out right at the very end so as not to have enough time to investigate it, then SHAME on all of you right-wingers and Republicans. I don't care who it's coming from. At this point if something comes out, I assume it's from the campaign but disguised as from another group.
Having said that, don't you think if something was truly that devestating to Obama ti would have already come out? I mean its not like no one has been investigating him for years now.
But you're a doofus to come running out crying wolf like this and then not telling us what it is. Afterall, you said I WON'T be able to NOT hear about it.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:38 PM
Is this boomshak guy for real?
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:41 PM
He's real stupid, that's about it. I don't think he's a parity troll since he used to be reasonable if only a tad obnoxious.
Since his dude went in the tank about a month ago he's really gone off the deep end and is now trashing the inside of his trailor on a daily basis as he slowly loses his mind.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:46 PM
Oops Parody, not parity. Can you tell what kind of business I own?
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:47 PM
man I hear a McCain scandal is about to break. I can't tell you what it is, but WOW. WOW. It has to do with gay bars and Lindsey Graham but I cannot get anymore specific.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:48 PM
What does our resident McCain-boosting contrarian honestly think of candidate McCain?
"I have many conservative friends in my circle
and we all detest him."
--boomshak Nov. 2006
And how does he think candidate McCain comes off during debates? (Back from when he was a Romney booster):
"...for you the scary thing will be when Romney
(tall, brilliant, good-looking, well-spoken with
a great voice and smile) gets on stage during a
debate with McCain (old, exhausted, white-
haired, cancer-faced RINO with the charisma of
my grandfather sleeping in his big chair after
--boomshak, Jan. 2007
You stay classy, Boomshak.
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:49 PM
most repubs are in the denial phase of the grieving process
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:50 PM
REMEMBER BOOMSHAK : IN THIS ELECTION YOU HAVE HAD *****ZERO***** CORRECT PREDICITONS SO FAR AND YOU HAVE MADE MORE THAN 50 STARTING FROM THE ROMNEY WIN IN THE PRIMARY.
THAT IS RIGHT: YOU THOUGHT ***ROMNEY THE MORON**** HAS THE NOMINATION IN THE BAG****
YOU HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO POLITICAL INSTINCT.
TALK LESS, READ MORE.
EDUCATE YOURSELF MAN!
Posted on October 22, 2008 6:53 PM
well if the mccain isnt doing then that should tell you its a sleazy lie.
Posted on October 22, 2008 7:10 PM
This Boomshak sure has the moonbats dancing to his tune. A regular "Pied Piper".
yeah boom hes using his sick grandmother he loves as cover.and if obama knows about it wouldnt you think his campaign would be preparing to counter. if its such a major surprise how would he know its coming.and if they did have something wouldnt it make sense to get it out now so it has an effect when there is less than two weeks. if you have knowledge dont you think the media who has a much more powerful network would know. especially hannity who is looking for anything to damage obama rep.in fact if i know hannity he would say something like there in new information that could very well destroy the obama campaign. i think you are grasping at straws
Posted on October 22, 2008 7:18 PM
So now that it's becoming increasingly obvious that Obama will win, what do people here predict concerning the scope of his victory?
Landslide? Solid win? Marginal win?
I'm predicting somewhere between solid win and landslide.
And the next question is, how strong will the democrats be represented in congress? I'm guessing 60% majority, but just barely.
This is the dem's first chance in almost a decade to step up and fix the GOP's mess in a meanigful way. Huge task since this financial crisis can be traced way back to Reagan and his financial deregulation orgy in the 80's.
So here's hoping the dems get a considerable amount of power beyond Obama's shoe-in win come November to get the job done.
One last thing. I visit this forum from time to time and I see way too much attention given to someone named 'Boomshak'. Why is anyone responding to this person at this point? There's no way anyone can convince a diluted, clueless, utterly wrong, and mentally unstable person to see reality and reason. Seems like a complete waste of time to me. My advice is to avoid addressing trolls like him and they eventually go away.
Posted on October 22, 2008 7:28 PM
The race remains stable.
Average of today's seven daily national tracking numbers (including the two extra LV Gallup models and the one ABC/Washington Post RV model--so 10 separate results):
10/22/2008 (10/21/2008 in parenthesis):
Obama 50.6 (50.4)
McCain 42.6 (42.5)
Obama +0.2, McCain +0.1 = 0.1 point Obama swing
Obama +8.0% (+7.9%)
Using just the LV models (LVII in the case of Gallup--7 polls total), we get the following results:
10/22/2008 (10/21/2008 in parenthesis):
Obama 50.3 (49.9)
McCain 42.7 (42.6)
Obama +0.4, McCain +0.1 = 0.3 point Obama swing
Obama +7.6% (+7.3%)
Posted on October 22, 2008 7:31 PM
The only thing that matters is this: Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado.
I have no doubt that Obama is up more than 2 in PA based on the myriad polls we have seen. He is ahead enough in VA that McCain would need to run heavy there just to catch up, and he doesn't have the money. Let OH and FL go. They would be nice jewels and would pin McCain down for a few days, but they are not necessary.
McCain has nowhere else to go, the economy will continue to worsen, and bin Laden just announced that McCain is his candidate of choice.
Obama will begin running his positive, forward-looking ads starting with the 30 minute buys next week and will look more presidential every day.
If boom and alankeyes are the best the Republicans have, then they are in serious trouble.
Posted on October 22, 2008 7:41 PM
There's no scandal.
His grandmother is sick.
Your guy is going to lose so badly, he won't know where to hide his face.
This AP poll you're getting horny about starts 7 days ago...
The golden standard is showing a 6 point race, with 12 days to go.
Stick a fork in McCain. He's done.
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:00 PM
Gallup: O+3 (LV's)
By end of day tomorrow, there will be at least 3 tracking polls within the MOE of 3.
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:04 PM
"Boom is it Acorn? No....Rev Wright?...NO Arveys? No... The "I hate whity" video? No... Getting a little bored with this."
This guy is amazing! I have told everybody here that boom craves attention and he loves everyone talking about him! Kerrchdavis is boom's favorite enemy. By attempting to discredit boom he in fact does the opposite! Kerrch, YOU CANNOT DISCREDIT SOMEONE THAT HAS NO CREDIBILITY TO BEGIN WITH.
For all you guys know boomshak is an overweight teen with acne with a domineering mother! If we don't stop feeding this supertroll he will take over the site! (If that hasn't happened already)
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:07 PM
Also in the AP Poll:
"But, the poll doesn't make sense on many levels. Here's one example: 45% of this poll's respondents are evangelicals or born-again Christians (this is on page 20 of the poll's crosstabs.
The problem? In 2004, evangelicals/born-again Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP's poll released today. That's almost double the number - it's totally implausible."
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:13 PM
By end of day tomorrow, there will be at least 3 tracking polls within the MOE of 3."
I am marking this post, and will re-post tomorrow with results of Boom's fail.
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:16 PM
Already told you, no, it's none of those old things.
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:18 PM
I tell you, all of this stuff about Obama already planning his coronation isn't going to play well with middle-america.
"The devil always overplays his hand and Obama is overplaying his hand here..."
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:25 PM
McCain ought to buy 30 prime time minutes;
and put Biden on!!
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:28 PM
Too bad he neither has the money nor the brains for it :)
The guy couldnt even finish his own line yesterday in PA, ruined the punch line made a joke of himself.
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:30 PM
I still can't believe McCain went the public finance route when the big O didn't. That is giving up way too much advantage.
Think about what Biden said. If Obama wins, terrorists are going to test him. That means attacks. That means people will die.
What a ringing endorsement. "If we win some of you poor dumb bastards will die."
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:34 PM
Doesn't having Biden a heartbeat away from the presidency worry you just a bit? I mean, the man seems certifiable at times.
Even Obama must be thinking, "Why the f*ck didn't I pick Hillary?!"
I wont deny Biden has his foot in his mouth.
But well atleast he doesnt believe earth was created 6000 years ago. Or he is not anti0evolution. I can live with foot-in mouth, ignorant, no.
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:36 PM
The only certifiable person I know is you :)
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:38 PM
Boomshak making MORE predictions? Are you trying to make history boom? Be the first human that is dumber than a cockroach?
Actually, I think you surpassed that already with your "tied by Sunday" prediction.
lol. I hope you don't have kids, society will laugh at them if they inherit your brains.
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:41 PM
So Biden is right? If Obama wins, some of us will pay for it with our lives? Does anyone else see a problem with this picture?
Its OK Boom, only 12 more sleeps, and then it'll all be over. You just hush now.
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:42 PM
No he is wrong.
If he is elected US will have far less enemies.
I have no doubt that AlQaeda or any other terrorist group would prefer a right wing war monger to Obama.
One thing they would loathe is for US's picture to improve abroads.
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:43 PM
Today's TIPP tracking has Obama +4... 46-42
Their poll has McCain winning the 18-24 vote 53-43???
This from Politico:
"A new survey of young voters from Harvard’s Institute of Politics has one result that you could’ve predicted: by a 26-point margin, voters aged 18-24 support Barack Obama over John McCain."
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:47 PM
No matter who is elected President, he will likely face some sort of international crisis early in his term.
but its just so damn fun and easy!!! :(
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:48 PM
Thanks, I feel better now.
That damn Biden should quit spreading those stories.
Seriously, I gotta disagree. Remember the Iranian hostages? You can't tell me the whacko terrorists are afraid of words. It was no coincidence they released those hostages the day "right wing war monger" Reagan was sworn in. They were afraid of getting squashed like freaking bugs. Immediately after the swearing in ceremony.
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:52 PM
Biden is the mouth that keeps on giving. I think Obama picked him because he knew he would have to work with Congress and he needed an insider to help pass his legislative agenda. Of course there is a downside which we are seeing now. At least he didn't say we might have to go to war with Russia over Georgia (yet).
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:53 PM
No they are not afraid of words. But remember how Alqaeda works: Spread hate, recruit youung brainwashed suicide bombers.
Hate, war, a right wong war monger, that is what they like.
"It was no coincidence they released those hostages the day "right wing war monger" Reagan was sworn in."
Dont be naive now. Alqaeda and terrorist right now are not the nuts of Irans mid 80's. They had a government, the power to protect. Alqeda just loves for US to bomb Afganistan or Iraq. That is how they make a living, that is how they spread hate and recruit and brainwash youngsters.
Posted on October 22, 2008 8:58 PM
"Alqeda just loves for US to bomb Afganistan or Iraq. That is how they make a living, that is how they spread hate and recruit and brainwash youngsters."
So Obama's plan to step things up in Afghanistan is just gonna create more terrorists. Maybe someone should tell him that. Sounds like something he needs to know.
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:06 PM
No it wasn't out of fear of the great Ronald Reagan! They hated Carter and wanted to humiliate him. Otherwise, it was pressure from the international community, the isolation they were suffering from and the invasion from the Iraq. Saddam did more to free the hostages than Reagan did.
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:07 PM
Common, that is just a talking point. What Obama said was that he would Kill Osama if he finds him there. He never (neither McCain) ever said that they are gonna bomb Afganistan.
Talking about Iran: No US president has done more favor to them more than guess who?
The right wing war monger: Bush
They had never enjoyed such a superior position in middle east before,until in "pursuit of spreading democracy", our president lengthened their regime's life by 20 years atleatst by removing Saddam and not only that bugging our troops down in Iraq.
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:11 PM
So it really is coincidence all that diplomacy came to fruition the day Reagan was sworn in? Seems like a stretch to me.
Iran has had a position superior to Iraq in the region since the FIRST Gulf War. Different Bush.
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:19 PM
Two Republican sources involved in third-party groups said the Arizona senator’s second debate performance in early October, a pivotal moment in the campaign when he and running mate Sarah Palin had begun to ratchet up their attacks, was deflating to some donors.
These sources said that after McCain didn’t use the Nashville debate to aggressively go after Obama, one prominent conservative financier remarked: “I’m not going to bother investing anymore.”
And donors were always fearful they would be rebuked by their party’s notoriously unpredictable nominee if they underwrote a major effort.
“McCain never gave a real wink and said, ‘Go ahead, boys,’” explained one operative close to a third-party group this year.
Another GOP strategist lamented that McCain lacked a core group of rich friends who were willing to part with their money. Harold Simmons, a Dallas billionaire, underwrote the entire cost of the initial Ayers ad for AIP — but his investment wasn’t matched by other wealthy Republicans.
“In 2004, Bush had a cadre of donors who wanted to see him succeed,” said this source, citing “oil guys.”
“But McCain doesn’t have that, and this is where it really hurts.”
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:20 PM
hold your cursor over on fire's name and see what it says. DONT CLICK.
Unless you really want to.
Uh, wrong site guy.
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:24 PM
"Iran has had a position superior to Iraq in the region since the FIRST Gulf War. Different Bush."
Yes, but we didnt have all our troops bugged down. and Iran wasnt atleast using "Iraq's soil" for its purposes. Iranian groups are active "inside" Iraq right now threatening US's interests and killing our soldiers. Was it like that before? Did Iran's Shiet Mullas have such influence in Iraq before? Could they send ammunition from the border to Iraq?
Did we have to ask (and in private beg) Iranians to stop sending mines and road bombs to Iraq?
No. This all happened because a right wing war monger thought he can just solve the problems in middle east with Tanks and Aircraft Carriers.
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:26 PM
Junki, junki....Of course you can solve most problems with tanks and aircraft carriers...if you send in enough of them.
And the resolution authorizing that war passed by what margin? In the senate was it 93-5 or 95-3, I don't remember for sure.
Which one is most true.
All war mongers are right wingers.
All right wingers are war mongers.
Sounds like an ABC/WP poll question, doesn't it.
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:34 PM
OK, it was 77-23
I must have confused it with something else.
Point is the same.
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:38 PM
gay massage... what's your point?
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:39 PM
"Junki, junki....Of course you can solve most problems with tanks and aircraft carriers...if you send in enough of them."
This is why we vote for different guys I guess. We agree to disagree :)
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:42 PM
It surprised me that I need to use parental controls for THIS site.
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:47 PM
Yes we do.
What kind of engineer are you? I'm an electrical guy.
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:50 PM
Obama with 10 point lead in latest NBC/WSJ poll:
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:52 PM
Electrical :-) Communications systems, DSP stuff etc...
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:54 PM
An early voting story from Politico:
"For me the most moving moment came when the family in front of me, comprising probably 4 generations of voters (including an 18 year old girl voting for her first time and a 90-something hunched-over grandmother), got their turn to vote. When the old woman left the voting booth she made it about halfway to the door before collapsing in a nearby chair, where she began weeping uncontrollably. When we rushed over to help we realized that she wasn't in trouble at all but she had not truly believed, until she left the booth, that she would ever live long enough to cast a vote for an African-American for president. Anyone who doesn't think that African-American turnout will absolutely SHATTER every existing record is in for a very rude surprise."
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:58 PM
This is Krugman slamming the Reps.
"Forty years ago, Richard Nixon made a remarkable marketing discovery. By exploiting America’s divisions — divisions over Vietnam, divisions over cultural change and, above all, racial divisions — he was able to reinvent the Republican brand. The party of plutocrats was repackaged as the party of the “silent majority,” the regular guys — white guys, it went without saying — who didn’t like the social changes taking place.
It was a winning formula. And the great thing was that the new packaging didn’t require any change in the product’s actual contents — in fact, the G.O.P. was able to keep winning elections even as its actual policies became more pro-plutocrat, and less favorable to working Americans, than ever.
John McCain’s strategy, in this final stretch, is based on the belief that the old formula still has life in it.
Thus we have Sarah Palin expressing her joy at visiting the “pro-America” parts of the country — yep, we’re all traitors here in central New Jersey. Meanwhile we’ve got Mr. McCain making Samuel J. Wurzelbacher, aka Joe the Plumber — who had confronted Barack Obama on the campaign trail, alleging that the Democratic candidate would raise his taxes — the centerpiece of his attack on Mr. Obama’s economic proposals.
And when it turned out that the right’s new icon had a few issues, like not being licensed and comparing Mr. Obama to Sammy Davis Jr., conservatives played victim: see how much those snooty elitists hate the common man?
But what’s really happening to the plumbers of Ohio, and to working Americans in general?
First of all, they aren’t making a lot of money. You may recall that in one of the early Democratic debates Charles Gibson of ABC suggested that $200,000 a year was a middle-class income. Tell that to Ohio plumbers: according to the May 2007 occupational earnings report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average annual income of “plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters” in Ohio was $47,930.
Second, their real incomes have stagnated or fallen, even in supposedly good years. The Bush administration assured us that the economy was booming in 2007 — but the average Ohio plumber’s income in that 2007 report was only 15.5 percent higher than in the 2000 report, not enough to keep up with the 17.7 percent rise in consumer prices in the Midwest. As Ohio plumbers went, so went the nation: median household income, adjusted for inflation, was lower in 2007 than it had been in 2000.
Third, Ohio plumbers have been having growing trouble getting health insurance, especially if, like many craftsmen, they work for small firms. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, in 2007 only 45 percent of companies with fewer than 10 employees offered health benefits, down from 57 percent in 2000.
And bear in mind that all these data pertain to 2007 — which was as good as it got in recent years. Now that the “Bush boom,” such as it was, is over, we can see that it achieved a dismal distinction: for the first time on record, an economic expansion failed to raise most Americans’ incomes above their previous peak.
Since then, of course, things have gone rapidly downhill, as millions of working Americans have lost their jobs and their homes. And all indicators suggest that things will get much worse in the months and years ahead.
So what does all this say about the candidates? Who’s really standing up for Ohio’s plumbers?
Mr. McCain claims that Mr. Obama’s policies would lead to economic disaster. But President Bush’s policies have already led to disaster — and whatever he may say, Mr. McCain proposes continuing Mr. Bush’s policies in all essential respects, and he shares Mr. Bush’s anti-government, anti-regulation philosophy.
What about the claim, based on Joe the Plumber’s complaint, that ordinary working Americans would face higher taxes under Mr. Obama? Well, Mr. Obama proposes raising rates on only the top two income tax brackets — and the second-highest bracket for a head of household starts at an income, after deductions, of $182,400 a year.
Maybe there are plumbers out there who earn that much, or who would end up suffering from Mr. Obama’s proposed modest increases in taxes on dividends and capital gains — America is a big country, and there’s probably a high-income plumber with a huge stock market portfolio out there somewhere. But the typical plumber would pay lower, not higher, taxes under an Obama administration, and would have a much better chance of getting health insurance.
I don’t want to suggest that everyone would be better off under the Obama tax plan. Joe the plumber would almost certainly be better off, but Richie the hedge fund manager would take a serious hit.
But that’s the point. Whatever today’s G.O.P. is, it isn’t the party of working Americans."
Posted on October 22, 2008 9:59 PM
Ah, the Big Money. I used to do some things related to what you do, but back in the dark ages. A flip-flop really was 2 transistors. Or tubes.
I am more on the power end now. Hoping to take early retirement and talk my wife into moving to a REALLY red state.
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:00 PM
"I am more on the power end now. Hoping to take early retirement and talk my wife into moving to a REALLY red state."
I am in a REALLY blue state already (Cal), pretty happy about it :-)
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:02 PM
She wants to move to Sante Fe where all the libs are. She's gonna win, but I haven't told her that yet. We still have a few years to wait.
I'm gonna sit on a mountain top and stare at the stars while she is busy sipping lattes. Or maybe even breves.
I have been close to tossing in the towel on this election, several times. It is a hard pill to swallow. I could kick that damn dubya square in the butt. Him and his NEO con buddies have given us regular cons a bad name. It's gonna take a lot of work to undo what he has done. Unless they let Biden talk some more, lol!
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:13 PM
My wife is from TX. No libs there, believe me I lived there! Actually I agree with you, I think past 8 years polarized the politics like never before. Many moderate lefties and semi-liberals became hardcore liberals because of Bush and the reaction to it has been that the guys on the right have also become more hardcore!
I have a republican colleague, I remember a time that we could discuss politics, over lunch, in peace. Now if we talk politics after 2 mins people at work have to call 911 so close it gets to a real street fight. Both sides have become extreme.
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:28 PM
Zogby's tracking for tomorrow to be released in a few hours... PREDICTIONS??
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:33 PM
So how can McCain win.
Take all of the swing states in yellow on this site. That should be doable, since they have all leaned Rep in recent elections.
Then he needs 18 more EVs. Hence the full court press in PA. Riding that bus around is cheaper than flying back and forth from CO/NM to NH. VA and NH come up 1 EV short.
I have wondered quite a bit why PA. If you spend a little time looking at it, there are not a lot of choices. He needs 18, MI is 17. No single other state, except CA, IL, and NY, will get him there, and those 3 are out of the question.
Backup plan. All of the swing states and add VA. Take that and any other state, except those with 3 EV.
Any other plan gets too messy.
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:36 PM
Well, Zogby's number is white noise, it is unpredictable. But he sure as hell is smart. Instead of releasing his number in the morning like every body else, he releases it as night. Otherwise his garbage would have been lost among real polls...
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:37 PM
Even if Obama was to lose PA, he can still go over 270 by winning VA and NC... or just FL... or VA and MO...
so many combinations... McCain has to keep all the Bush states, and he's already losing CO, NM, IA (all won by Bush)
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:43 PM
I still think without VA he has no chance.
I dont see how a republican could win PA but lose VA. If he wins PA, means he has already won VA.
I dont know what his end-game plan is, but what ever effect it is gonna have on PA, it will have double that effect on VA...
Likely scenarios for McCain is Won VA and PA, Won VA lose PA or lose both. Win PA lose VA is not very likely
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:44 PM
Shot myself in the foot there.
Backup plan is VA and any state with more than 4 EV. Not 3.
I think we all agree no one wants to see 269-269. That would be a bigger mess than 2000.
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:45 PM
Regardless of election results, it has been a very historic year. I am very happy to have lived through, later I can say, "I was there".
In that sense, a 269-269 would make it even more historic, although a mess as you said...
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:49 PM
Hell none of his scenarios are likely. Since the ignoramus went the public finance route, it is a question of whether there are any seats left on the Southwest flights.
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:50 PM
I reckon it's usually a mistake to try to prognosticate on individual polls, particularly smaller sample polls. But for a sense of the tracker trend, I've done today's tracker graph, which I'll repost with fuller data in my regular morning update.
Thank you. Your plots are always simple and useful.
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:53 PM
Imagine Nov 5th. McCain stuck in PA cause he ran out of cash.
If he wins, will the Feds send a cab for him?
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:55 PM
Thanks junki :-)
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:57 PM
He has to expense it :)
He could always sell off Palin's wardrobe in a street stall to raise airfare back to Arizona.
Posted on October 22, 2008 10:59 PM
Wouldn't want John to violate any campaign finance laws.
I think its time to call it a night. I have been on here too much as it is.
Take care. Good night
Posted on October 22, 2008 11:02 PM
Obama will seal the deal next Wednesday night. Already ahead with the early voting, his message that night will run the airways for the next week. However, I hope nothing comes to fruition here, but in the likely chance he is elected, I think he will need to be surrounded by unheard of security. A lot of wacko's will probably try to make sure he doesn't make it into office. If for some horrific reason someone is successful, who becomes president-elect? Biden (order of succesion?) Clinton (runner-up in primaries?) McCain (runner-up in election?) This country would probably go to hell in that event. Any answers, thoughts, opinions?
Posted on October 22, 2008 11:08 PM
Do you live in Missouri?
Can you tell me a little about how are things there on the ground? What is your feeling? BigO has a chance?
Posted on October 22, 2008 11:18 PM
Agree one hundred percent. The Obama campaign is riding the Colin Powell surge, a surge we can believe in!
Posted on October 22, 2008 11:19 PM
Yeah, I'm in Branson. SW Missouri, the reddest part of the state. Obama seems to have a LOT of support here. It's kind of like the wealthy business owners against us dirt poor front desk, maint, housekeeping, park attendent, groundskeeping, construction workers. (We do outnumber the owners.) I know more people who say they aren't voting than people who say they will vote McCain. But there may be a lot of staunch conservatives that may just be keeping their McCain support to themselves. Problem I've found is at least two of my fellow Obama supporters, apparently never got registered by the deadline. I wonder if that will be an issue in other areas.
Posted on October 22, 2008 11:29 PM
Thanks a lot Ryan!
Posted on October 22, 2008 11:35 PM
Ryan in MO-
Palin has been calling him "spread the wealth Barack". Wouldn't it be funny if more people started voting FOR Obama because of that?
I don't know. People seem to not trust the polls. It is a weird political atmosphere.
Posted on October 22, 2008 11:40 PM
I think once it's all said and done, Obama will end up winning big. I gotta go for now. Will be back later if anyone is up.
Posted on October 22, 2008 11:51 PM
Anyone know the latest Zogby?
Posted on October 23, 2008 12:53 AM
Zogby - Obama 52, McCain 40
Iknow its Zogby, but the trend is unmistakable
Posted on October 23, 2008 12:59 AM
Yup, I am looking at Zogby and I am liking what I am seeing. Even though Zogby is Zogby but hey a little good news before bed aint too shabby...
Posted on October 23, 2008 1:07 AM
Pollster John Zogby: "Obama now has a huge lead among young voters, independents, and Hispanic voters. It's obviously not over. Frankly, this could tighten up and then loosen up again before Election Day. We saw movement on Election Day in New Hampshire, but at least for now, Obama has a very big lead. In the absence of news, McCain is not connecting. He seemed to be connecting during and immediately after the last debate, but got lost in issues that are not on people's minds. At some point, there are some issues that just overwhelm, and McCain has been particularly weak on the economy. He misstated the problem, confused his position, acted in a frantic way, and then looked like he wanted to run away from it. Meanwhile, Obama has been cool and confident, which worked for FDR in 1932 and worked for Ronald Reagan in 1980."
"I am very comfortable with our sample, especially given our track record in the last three presidential elections. Look at other polls and ask - Do they have enough college educated respondents? Enough Hispanics? Enough young voters? We do. And we have more Republicans in our sample than anyone else."
Posted on October 23, 2008 1:09 AM
Just heard a long talk by Richard Hayes Phillips, author of "Witness to a Crime", on my local NPR station.
He's the principal investigator of election fraud in Ohio 2004, and as geeky as it gets when it comes to details. Though he's not much of a speaker, Phillips' case is airtight. Just the number of different ways the R's screwed Kerry and other D's in Ohio is astonishing.
If anyone has doubts about the level of corruption Ohio then, hear Phillips' talk.
Banana Republic--it's not just a store.
Posted on October 23, 2008 1:12 AM
It's because it's Zogby that the numbers are of interest. His self-promotion for today goes as follows:
"I am very comfortable with our sample, especially given our track record in the last three presidential elections. Look at other polls and ask - Do they have enough college educated respondents? Enough Hispanics? Enough young voters? We do. And we have more Republicans in our sample than anyone else."
Note that what I regard as the "missing" McCain vote is undoubtedly hidden in his high (for a tracker) percentage of undecides.
If you want a laugh, check this out (spotted by Nate):
Posted on October 23, 2008 1:15 AM
I am really glad Obama had a 50 state strategy. It is really hard to count on OH or FL. Never know what happens there...
Posted on October 23, 2008 1:19 AM
I have a quiet confidence FL will strengthen again. Ohio, not so much.
Posted on October 23, 2008 1:33 AM
Everything that McCain tries seems to backfire. Nobody cares about Ayers, Rezco, Joe, ACORN, socialism, or what Biden says. It is almost like people have stopped listening to the Reps. That is what happens when you lose credibility.
Posted on October 23, 2008 2:12 AM
It's what happens when you've actually already lost. And it happens everywhere that anything resembling genuine elections are held and the real contest is over. It is always a macabre sight watching the loser-to-be lash out with one desperate tactic after another, stumbling to the finish line, while his coalition of support crumbles around him.
btw if you are an election junkie, like me, check out this site by a friend of almost 30 years.
Posted on October 23, 2008 2:23 AM
Sorry. I had to break off.
The Ohio election laws are so crazy that it's hard to see how a change of state administration could in itself prevent many of the abuses that took place in '04.
One of the possible uses of polls that show improbably close races would be to provide cover for rigged state contests. Far-fetched? Probably. But the scale of the Ohio abuses was so vast that it makes anything seem possible.
Posted on October 23, 2008 2:27 AM
Hello everyone! I'm new here. I can't resist telling how MrBoom makes me laugh. I am living abroad and from here, the race looks over. McCain could hope a tighted fight, but since he picked up his moose hunter partner, he is doomed, and as some guy wrote, Obama's victory might be at least solid, if not a landslide. With an ocean wide distance, it seems quite obvious. I heard this morning that in some european countries, BO would be elected by 80-20! (eventhough everyone shows respect for Sen. McCain... but he doesn't belong to the XXIst Century, he shares his party with Calamity Bush, and his ticket with a totally incompetent person. Really, that makes too much for an honest elder man to carry. BTW, any president would raise the White House level after these 8 appalling years...
Posted on October 23, 2008 10:16 AM
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