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US: Obama 54, McCain 43 (ABCPost-10/19-22)

Topics: PHome

ABC News / Washington Post
10/19-22/08; 1,335 LV, 2.5%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(ABC, Post)

National
Obama 54, McCain 43

 

Comments
boomshak:

STOCK MARKET DOESN'T WANT OBAMA TO WIN!

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2008/10/23/bartiromo-market-bounced-today-because-prez-race-tightened

Bartiromo: Market Bounced Today Because Prez Race Tightened
By Noel Sheppard (Bio | Archive)
October 23, 2008 - 16:35 ET

CNBC's Maria Bartiromo on Thursday excitedly told viewers that an intra-day rally which had brought the Dow Jones Industrial Average from down about 275 to up over 170 was caused by rumors that the presidential race had tightened.

With about fifteen minutes to go in the trading session, the camera found a suddenly happy Bartiromo on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange gleefully saying the following:

Welcome back, down here on the floor with Dylan. Just walking around, hearing some rumors about one of the reasons that this market bounced off the bottom is there are rumors in the market, speculation that the race for the White House is getting tighter. And one trader telling us just moments ago that he thought the reason that the market was so low was when Obama had the lead because he's gonna raise taxes. And then when things got tighter, things bounced off the bottom. At some point you have to believe this market starts trading on the White House. [...]

Don't underestimate tax increases on capital gains. Capital gains at fifteen percent going to 28 percent, this market's gonna trade down if we see that.

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countrymous3:

Ho, hum, another 11-pt lead in a national poll...


:) :) :)


! ! !

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kerrchdavis:

McCain is SURGING!

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maddiekat:

Great news from Ras regarding Minnesota and Georgia.

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Basil:

McCain is surging around the drain.

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political_junki:

Wow, The good life... :)

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Basil:

McCain is surging around the drain.

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joethedummer:

but the world wants obama to win ,yesssss weeeee cannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn!

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katocat:

54% woohoo!

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countrymous3:

Boomshak's real opinion of candidate McCain (back when B was a Romney supporter):

"I have many conservative friends in my circle
and we all detest him."
--boomshak Nov. 2006
http://www.anklebitingpundits.com/content/index.php?p=1216#comment-31426

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Basil:

Sorry for the double post.

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vmval1:

@Boomshak:

How's the 3 polls within Moe going for you? genius

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NB:

Boomshak, if traders 1) really think McCain is surging and 2) think he's better for the economy than Obama, it's no wonder the financial system is such a disaster.

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boomshak:

Another poll 7 points higher than Gallup. Ho hum. The MSM is desperate toe depress Republican voter turnout.

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DTM:

Economists can study specific stock market moves for years and still not agree on what caused them. But when it comes to stock market journalism, correlation is good enough to prove causation.

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mac7396:

Boomshak - don't you find it ironic that you spammed a poll with a huge Obama lead, with a story about a tightening race?

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vmval1:

@boomshak:

Forget Gallup - let's talk about Ras.

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M2:

Cue the Roy Orbison, because it is indeed over.

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Kane:

Stock traders want a Republican? hmm...somebody's not thinking too clearly. Have they looked at their indexes lately?

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Viperlord:

Another boom**** opinion on McSame "#

Colin,

McCain has made me throw up on my mouth so many times with his RINO antics, that no, disparaging him causes me no trouble at all.

As far as polling well. Well, people have heard of him so he polls well. Polling now for 2008 is meaningless."

____________________

Dan:

OOO boomshak quotes an article from 'newsbusters'

"a project of the Media Research Center (MRC), the leader in documenting, exposing and neutralizing liberal media bias. "

Real credible source there.

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Thatcher:

@boomshak -

of course wall street doesn't want Obama ... that's because they know he's going to make sure regulations come back into place like during FDR, JFK and early years of Clinton (remember, the 3 biggest boom presidencies of the 20th century for middle America?)

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sunnymi:


I get the point now....IBD was trying to help the morale of the investing community by producing straw polls to show an artificial tightening of the race....I didn't realize the stock traders could be so easily duped!

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vmval1:

@boomshak:

Dude, like, don't you get sick of ALWAYS being wrong. You run into a brick wall, fall flat on your ass, get up, and then run into the same brick wall.

Are you mentally challenged??

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Viperlord:

Sssh. You'll confuse the conservatives with facts. Boom thinks Bush II was awesome for the economy.

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kerrchdavis:

does anyone actually read these bull**** articles boomshak posts?

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joethedummer:

boomshat exsposed, I love it,,,, boomshak = biggest loser on planet earth!

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political_junki:

It is funny how Boom's favorite pollster changes every day

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Basil:

BooBoo,
If the market can rise because some bozo falsely claims that the race is tightening, no wonder there's so little confidence in it. Maybe we'll have to wait until Obama is elected to stabilize the situation. Then only you will think McCain has a chance.

By the way, you misspelled your name. You have a habit of doing that, I've noticed.

At least that Keynesisawesome guy keeps his stories straight.

Jeepers, dude!

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BlueInTexas:

Yeah Lord knows Wall Street did SOOOO well the past 8 years. I like how Greenspan blames the banks and then the banks blame the loaners/taxpayers.

The buck stops where?

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

Lattes for everyone. Boomshak get busy.

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BlueAmerica:

Big lead for Obama. It seems that McCain isn't closing the gap at all with Obama, but in fact starting to fall even further behind. New state polls prove this fact. Montana, Obama up by 4, Florida, Obama up by 5, and Pennsylvania Obama up by 10-13 points.

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Viperlord:

BlueinTexas: Haha, nice. The irony to that is that I recently read Harry Truman's book "Where the Buck Stops"

Oh, and some more gems from boom****:

"#

All politics aside, McCain is just too old and sickly looking to become President. He appears feeble and speaks in almost a whisper most times.

After 8 years of Bush and the monkey cartoons, Republicans are ready for someone that “looks” Presidential.

Sorry, but we don’t need a “tired out looking old white guy” - can you say BOB DOLE?

I agree with you that you need to learn more about Romney before you call him just a “pretty face”.

As I posted before, check out:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitt_Romney

and it will tell you pretty much everything you need to know and then some.

I mean, heck, even that screaming liberal on Hardball, Matthews, grudgingly referred to Romney as “really impressive”…"

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vmval1:

@kerrchdavis:
Hey Kerr, we've been missing you. While you were gone, we had another poster called boomshaCk. He was great. :)

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MasterFramer:

@boobshak

Your elementary understanding of the market is amusing. We have yet to see the bottom. Dumb ass traders on the floor "thinking" and "talking" about "rumors" are not causing the market to fluctuate. Those button/paper pushers execute trades, they don't have that much control over the market. We haven't seen the proper correction yet. The country is bankrupt and neither Obama or McCain can turn it around over night. At least Obama will put more disposable income in the middle class's pocket. The age of trickle down is over. And your candidate is done... no message, no direction, no chance.

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Viperlord:

I LOVE this one: #

"Liz Mair,

It will be Romney/Gingrich vs Hillary/Obama in 2008. Get used to it in advance.

Romney won’t need your lame “stay-home-to-protest” vote anyway as he will win in a landslide.

P.S. Are you one of the folks that stayed home in 2006 that I have to thank for giving us Nancy Pelosi as Speaker?

Any Republican that stays home and doesn’t vote in protest (thereby electing liberals) is a complete idiot.

Your Congress-person isn’t conservative enough so you stay home and get a liberal elected? Are you mad?" #

Liz Mair,

It will be Romney/Gingrich vs Hillary/Obama in 2008. Get used to it in advance.

Romney won’t need your lame “stay-home-to-protest” vote anyway as he will win in a landslide.

P.S. Are you one of the folks that stayed home in 2006 that I have to thank for giving us Nancy Pelosi as Speaker?

Any Republican that stays home and doesn’t vote in protest (thereby electing liberals) is a complete idiot.

Your Congress-person isn’t conservative enough so you stay home and get a liberal elected? Are you mad?

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boomshat:

Did you guys see the TIPP poll today? The most accurate pollster has Obama +1 and McCain surging.

McCain will be +2 by tomorrow.

This poll is rediculous. FAIL!

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M2:

I imagine the biggest effect on the market would be a decisive Obama/Dem win. Then people will know where to place their bets. What the market likely wouldn't have much confidence in is another 50-50 election where we spend another four years getting nothing done.

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Basil:

@vmval1

Stop making fun of BooBoo's spelling. He can't help it. You try typing with your forehead and see how well you do!

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Viperlord:

I don't even have to say anything. Boom's own words do far more damage to him than I ever did.

"Good lord, has anyone here that is bashing Romney even taken 10 minutes to read his Wikipedia page so you know what you are talking about?

All the McCain supporters are getting their bashing in early because they know that Romney will chew McCain up in the deebates and on the campaign trail.

The other day, BDP was in here calling Romney “just a pretty face” and yet he didn’t even know the most basic facts about Romney which, as a matter of fact, can be easily found on his Wikipedia page." -Boom****

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scottkj:

this poll is BUNK. NO internals showing D/R ratio, area, demographic polling.

The IBD poll is the one to watch. It was the most accurate in 2004 and has a large diverse sample.

Oh by the way, have you seen the story about the Obama supporter cutting the B in a ladies face with a knife. those o supporters are ruthless.

____________________

As if I'm gonna care what a bunch of plapper Wall Street wonks think. Good anyway, spread the wealth around!LOL

What a dumb post anyway. So what, now because Maria Baritromo uttered on the air about some 'rumor' on the floor that the stocks went up today because of a 'tightening' in the race, therefore a McCain win would mean a zooming stock market then we're all supposed to change our votes to McCain.

Seems to me the Republicans, Ms. Baritromo included, have no friggin clue anymore. They really are just swirling down with the bath water. They yap on about socialism yet Obama continues to increase his lead. Get a clue you morons.

And no, a dumb worker like me can figure out that the stock market went up today because it had gone down yesterday. People were buying stocks on the cheap. What a joke.

:) Now I feel better...

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boom&KipTinSUCK:

test

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laguna_b:

@M2
"M2:

Cue the Roy Orbison, because it is indeed over.
"

I thought it was: "Running Scared".....but either will do!

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BlueInTexas:

to MasterFramer

THANK YOU! We still have seen the bottom yet. The problem right now is that there is a LOT of buying and selling. Frankly, most people don't know what they need to be holding on to so they keep selling. Meanwhile, others are buying up 'bargains' but then bail when the price starts dipping more.

My guess is that the bottom is just shy of 8000. By then all the scaredy-cats will be chased out.

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boom&KipTinSUCK:

test again

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boomshak:

@vmval1:
@Boomshak:

How's the 3 polls within Moe going for you? genius

It's going great!

GWU/Battleground O+2 (yeah, that't the REAL poll number, not the RCP bullsh*t)
AP O+1
IBD/TIPP O+1

That's 3 polls with the MOE.

I was RIGHT!

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Viperlord:

Damn, this is so much fun: "Patrick,

Frankly, considering the horrendous job that the McCain team has done in squandering his early lead, I am kind of surprised to see you showing ur face around here at all.

Shouldn’t you be busy raising money or something? seriously dude, the McCain Campaign is a TRAIN WRECK. Fish stinks from the head down I suppose.

Ok, regarding the MIA thing. I have HAD IT with the whole idea that if you had a knack for losing planes, and you live as a POW as a result, you are some kind of HERO FOR LIFE and UNTOUCHABLE no matter what you do the rest of your life.

Sorry, but getting shot down and being a POW doesn’t make you a hero. Unlucky yes, hero no.

Hero’s are the guys that give up their lives fighting the enemy so their buddies can get away. Hero’s are the guys that throw themselves on a grenade to save their platoon. Hero’s run into a burning building to save people they don’t even know.

By calling everyone who gets a raw deal in a war a HERO cheapens the term.

And, in conclusion, he missed 43 votes. Hillary missed 3. Obama missed 3.

Dude, get a clue, your client is a politcal disaster."

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boom&KipTinSUCK:

boomDESPERATE is becoming more and more irrelevant on this blog

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booms on. those polls at least use practical methodology. Rasmussen will change theirs to reflect the decrease in democrats, noted today

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laguna_b:

Q. Under which President did the DJIA go from the 2000 range to the 11,000 Range????

A. Democrat Clinton of course!

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boomshak:

@Working Class:

Dude, Obama wants to double the capital gains tax. That will kill the stock market.

You'll notice that on Monday the race looked close and the market went up 400. The all these bullsh*t MSM polls came out saying it was 14 points and the market tanked for 2 days.

Now polls are coming out saying it is close and the market rallies.

It's obvious.

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GoodRiddensW:

Oh, Maria, you broke my heart!

Maybe the market surge was when the mid-day polls came out showing Obama in full command?

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Viperlord:

The idiotic IBD/TIPP poll has already been debunked Republibots (I can make dumb insults too!": http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/whats-wrong-with-this-picture-aka-nate.html

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boomshat:

I was right about the 3 tracking polls today being in the moe. Why can't you libs admit that?

Why would you look at Rasmussen when you have TIPP?

fail.

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Basil:

@BooBoo

I'm trying to help you, but you're talking to yourself.

Just say "I am boomshack. I am boomshack. I am boomshack." three times (that makes 9) while holding your breath and you'll be OK.

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deeznutsrepubs:

Poor mccain - he is already planning to CONCEDE!!!


http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gFLcYcvYdfpj-bFNDo5ARpiRL1kQD940DEPO1

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scottkj:

Headline: November 5th. WHAT HAPPENED!?

Despite Obama lead in polls prior to election, McCain wins!!

Where did the polling go wrong. Is it racism.
Not likely, internals and exit polls show the reason Obama lost is because he was viewed as too liberal. Although some noted, liberal a racist code word.

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boomshat:

@viperlord

that guy Nate Silvers is a joke..a liberal plant.

sorry, you fail.

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[nemesis]:

sorry boomshak, but RCP isn't going to switch which version they report on their site just to suit your desires. The number that can be compare with previous GWU polls is +4 for Obama. Either way, the internals of the IBD and AP polls are so INSANELY screwed up that they can't even be considered even remotely believable.

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drinkwine247:

@boomspank


hahahahaha.

I never thought I would enjoy watching a fish flop around without water, but "watching" you do it, makes it soooooo thoroughly enjoyable!

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GoodRiddensW:

countrymous

Good find on the boom quote - how about this one later same day?

Boomshak Says:
November 20th, 2006 at 6:56 pm

McCain has made me throw up on my mouth so many times..., that no, disparaging him causes me no trouble at all.

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boomshat:

Tomorrow, at least 5 trackers will have it within the moe. By Sunday, the race will be tied again.

And this is even before the SCANDAL hits the MSM. OBAMA IS A FRAUD!

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BlueInTexas:

Dude, Obama wants to double the capital gains tax. That will kill the stock market. You'll notice that on Monday the race looked close and the market went up 400. The all these bullsh*t MSM polls came out saying it was 14 points and the market tanked for 2 days. Now polls are coming out saying it is close and the market rallies.
It's obvious.

Its obvious that the Market's in deep sh*t if they follow polls. And here I thought the market was about capital flow. Silly me.

____________________

Remember remember the fifth of November
Gunpowder, treason and plot.
I see no reason why gunpowder, treason
Should ever be forgot...

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deeznutsrepubs:

boomshak - Your knowledge of the stock market is worse than your poll predicting skills.

fail.

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laguna_b:

With another 2 weeks to go, even polls showing ONLY Republicans will have O+1

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PortlandRocks:

scottkj I didn't know until today that African Americns are 1% of the Electorate did you? Not until I read the IBD poll. Also in that poll, McCain is winning the under 29 vote by 75%. AMAZING turn around! ROFL God intelligence in this country is in SERIOUS trouble. These people can't believe they could lose after literally raping the country for 8 years! LOL

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metsmets:

@Boomshak
SPREAD THE WEALTH??

From msn money:

A new study based on unpublished Internal Revenue Service data shows the rich are different when it comes to paying taxes: They hide more of their income.

The previously unreported study estimates that taxpayers whose true income was between $500,000 and $1 million a year understated their adjusted gross incomes by 21% overall in 2001, compared with an 8% underreporting rate for Americans earning $50,000 to $100,000 and even lower rates for those earning less.

(The "net misreporting rate," as the IRS calls it, includes both underreported income and inflated deductions.)

In all, because of their higher noncompliance rates, those with true incomes of $200,000 or more received 25% of all income but accounted for 40% of net underreported income and 42% of underreported tax in 2001, according to the new analysis.

So Joe the Plumber loves America so much, he under-reports his income - to avoid tax!

Now that's truly patriotic!


____________________

boomshat:

@deeznutsrepubs

Are you refuting the FACT that the stock market has been reacting to Obama's polling numbers? Any dimwit can see that is exactly what is happening.

Tied by Sunday, and the following week the stock market explodes. McCain will win, mark my words.

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venpry:

@boomshak:

"You'll notice that on Monday the race looked close and the market went up 400. The all these bullsh*t MSM polls came out saying it was 14 points and the market tanked for 2 days.

Now polls are coming out saying it is close and the market rallies."

Sure, jobless data, earnings results and geopolitical events have nothing to do with market movements... it's all about polling data. I guess if we accept your premise, we could say that the surge in the market was actually more in line with the release of the Big 10 and Quinnipiac polling data this morning.


____________________

blakec:

Yeah the stock markets really love Republicans... fail

"Since 1929, Republicans and Democrats have each controlled the presidency for nearly 40 years. So which party has been better for American pocketbooks and capitalism as a whole? Well, here’s an experiment: imagine that during these years you had to invest exclusively under either Democratic or Republican administrations. How would you have fared?


As of Friday, a $10,000 investment in the S.& P. stock market index* would have grown to $11,733 if invested under Republican presidents only, although that would be $51,211 if we exclude Herbert Hoover’s presidency during the Great Depression. Invested under Democratic presidents only, $10,000 would have grown to $300,671 at a compound rate of 8.9 percent over nearly 40 years."

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Basil:

@ The real BooBoo,

EVERYTHING is obvious! That's why you're the only one who gets it. Everybody but you is just thinking too much. That's your secret weapon, man. Use it well.

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boomshat:

@portland

TIPP was the most accurate pollster in 2004. They were only 0.5% off the final result. You don't think they know what they're doing? In the meantime, polls like ABC and WSJ are completely in the tank for Obama.

And now, you have the MSM so desperate to have Obama win that their inflated polls are causing the stock market to crash.

Tied by SUnday.

____________________

Flashlight:

@scottkj:

That IBD/TIPP tracker (your "one to watch" has McCain beating Obama 74% to 22 among 18-24 year olds, and the analysts have been laughing at them all day

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/whats-wrong-with-this-picture-aka-nate.html

So I guess they are the one to watch if what your watching for is an embarrassed explanation or a defensive press release.

____________________

Incumbent:

Wow wow wow. 'Cuz I'm bored I just figured out that based on Pollster's current Electoral Vote map, if you give ALL of the toss-ups to McCain, and then give ALL of Obama's current leaners to McCain, he can JUST reach 270!

ROFLOL

____________________

Obama Backer attacks, mugs, beats and cuts B in womans face. That says it all about some of the mentality of his backers!!

http://kdka.com/politics/McCain.Campaign.Worker.2.847449.html
www.drudgereport.com

____________________

blakec:

Average return on investment for Republican presidents .4%. Average return for Democrats 8.9%. Yeah, those stockmarket guys really hate the Democrats.

____________________

metsmets:

It is a fact that the stock market does better under Democratic Preisdents, see here:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Plenty of Wall Streeters are Republicans. The party's policies are seen as better for big business and therefore better for the stock market. Democrats are seen as being pro-regulatory, and more willing to enact laws against Wall Street and laws against CEOs, said Don Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macrolytics. But here's Wall Street's strange little irony -- studies show the stock market performs better and tends to be less volatile when Democrats are in power.

and then you under-report your income, too!!!

____________________

The OBAMA THUGHOGRACY.....I think not!!!

McCain 2008!

____________________

boomshat:

@blakec

Give the democrats control of congress for less than 2 years and wall st. crashes.

THAT is fail.

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boomshak:

WILL YOUNGER VOTERS DECIDE THIS ELECTION AS THE VOTE IN DROVES?

"Not so fast..." says Gallup:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111310/Young-Voters-Favor-Obama-How-Many-Will-Vote.aspx

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laguna_b:

"TIPP was the most accurate pollster in 2004."


A broken clock is EXACTLY right 2X a day......

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alankeyesisawesome:

Is there any data on how many of the new democratic registrations can be discarded? If we purge enough democratic voters from the registration lists, will it make a difference in the election? Hopefully, but we need to take a more proactive roll.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

boomshat what about Rasmussen? Is he liberal?

____________________

Basil:

@Incumbent

That's the Baskin-Robbins 31 State Strategy, but you have to be a real hero to pull it off.

____________________

Flashlight:

@scottkj:

It was a mugging at an ATM and even the posters at hotair are skeptical

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/10/23/mccain-supporter-maimed-for-her-politics-by-robber/comment-page-1/#comments

____________________

blakec:

Over 80 years the trend is clear

Stocks go up under Democrats. Stocks crash very often under Republicans.

But hey, what ever keeps the dellusion going for you.

____________________

NorthernObserver:

CNN just announced a new poll on WV

M47 O45

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PortlandRocks:

boomshat what about Rasmussen? Is he liberal?

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Indiana4Obama:

Folks who believe Obama will be BAD for the stock market are ignorant...

Experts like Warren Buffett and the CEO of Google support Obama, for crying out loud. A tax hike on Capital Gains won't prevent folks from investing in the stock market. The vast majority of folks have mutual funds in retirement plans or IRAs where the taxes are deferred and not taxed until income at retirement.

It might make the really wealthy sting a little bit, but as Warren Buffett is fond of saying..."My secretary shouldn't be taxed at a higher rate than me."

Folks need to educate themselves instead of relying on irrational fear. I know "irrational fear" is the Repubs top strategy, but it's silly.

____________________

Dave in RI:

Saw Bartiromo make that comment. Utter idiocy. The market's lost about 40 percent of it's value in about a year and it's 'cause Obama might become president? Couldn''t have anything to do with credit meltdown and international fiscal crisis. Last few weeks have had historic levels of volatility and in the midst of these gyrations, one relatively minor bump (for these days)is because of some rumor about an actually non-existent tightening of the presidential race? Christ, Obama's been 90+ probability to win for at least a month and remains so today. If market hasn't factored that in, market doesn't work. Bartiromo is a knee-jerk Republican idiot, as are almost all CNBC commentators.

____________________

blakec:

"CNN just announced a new poll on WV

M47 O45"


Own noes the surge!!!

____________________

mac7396:

"scottkj:
Obama Backer attacks, mugs, beats and cuts B in womans face. That says it all about some of the mentality of his backers!!"

No, I'm convinced it was a Bob Barr supporter.

____________________

boomshat:

@portland

even the best pollsters have outliers too. Rasmussen will trend back to McCain starting tomorrow. By Sunday, it will be within the MOE.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

Last time I checked wasn't 2004 four years ago? Someone verify this for me.

____________________

mac7396:

"scottkj:
Obama Backer attacks, mugs, beats and cuts B in womans face. That says it all about some of the mentality of his backers!!"

No, I'm convinced it was a Bob Barr supporter.

____________________

Cho:

CBS poll to show "huge" lead for Obama

____________________

scottkj:

Rasmussen will adjust their sample to reduce democrats, as their generic % has decreased by 2%. This plus the McCain surge will force a tightening in this poll.

____________________

blakec:

Every single Democratic President has had a higher average return from the stock market then the Republican average return rate, even if you exclude the 1929 crash.

Yeah, epic fail on the line that the stock market hates Democrats.

____________________

boomshat:

Anyone that thinks Obama has even a dead mans chance in WV is crazy. That poll is a joke.

epic fail.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Ok retards. Time to pull put my Forbes article. Forbes is a Republican. Let's look at US presidents ranked by Economic prowess.

Postwar Presidencies Ranked By Six Measures Of Economic Performance:

#1 Clinton #2 Johnson #3 Kennedy

How many failed Republican administrations will it take before you realize you are consistently voting against your best interests Boom and all the righty nutbags?

http://www.forbes.com/2004/07/20/cx_da_0720presidents.html

____________________

boomshat:

@PortlandRocks

Forbes is part of the media, which is in the tank for Obama.

FAIL!

____________________

mac7396:

Every poll that doesn't show a huge lead for McCain is an epic fail. I'm in total denial that he can lose. I love the way that the country is going. Bush has done a great job, and I want four more years of exactly the same.

____________________

Dana Adini:

832,000 votes have been cast in NC as of this morning

55.42% Dem
27.16% Rep
16.62% other

if you apply Survey USA crosstab trend

you get

Obama 55.42
McCain 39.58
+15.84%
or 131,667

If you apply Rasmussen model you get

Obama 59.76%
McCain 38.63%
+ 21.13%
Or 175,806

the early vote to datevolume represents 23% of TOTAL VOTES cast in 2004.

Early but McCain is in trouble

raw data is available at

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

____________________

BlueInTexas:

Well it does help McCain if you poll only Republicans. White Republicans. Who make over $250000 a year.

Even then he might come out behind...

____________________

masselo:

Cho:

where is that CBS poll that you are refering to

____________________

laguna_b:

RAS Georgia M51 O46...within reach! The Georgia peach turning pink before blue!

____________________

boomshak:

Given the current trajectory, it is possible Gallup LV's will go with the MOE tomorrow.

____________________

boomshat:

@mac

Not a big lead for McCain but he is definitely within the MOE right now.

This race is trending back to McCain and will be tied by Sunday.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

CBS poll comes out in 7 min. WAIT FOR IT!

____________________

Cho:

masselo: CBS poll will be released in a few minutes

____________________

boomshat:

@PortlandRocks

CBS? why don't you quit using all these BS MSM polls.

fail.

____________________

scottkj:

Let me guess CBS: Obama 56 McCain 39

____________________

Cho:

what they did already say, its gonna be double digits for obama again

____________________

Flashlight:

"boomshak:
Given the current trajectory, it is possible Gallup LV's will go with the MOE tomorrow."

Interesting computation. Does the statistical model your analyzing involve a toilet and a hand mirror?

____________________

mac7396:

Please go to this link to support the RNC. And by support the RNC, I mean give them money so they can buy Sarah Palin some new shoes. C'mon she has like a totally huge rally in Ohio tomorrow, and needs to look her best.

http://www.rnc.org/

____________________

fox:

The victory will be landslide, I hope, so there is no way the repulicans can steal it again.

____________________

jonny87:

pews 14 was pretty big, lets see how cbs stacks up

____________________

scottkj:

Fresh new poll....from my office in downtown Seattle.

Obama 71
McCain 15

____________________

boomshat:

@Flashlight

I GUARANTEE IT WILL BE WITHIN THE MOE

____________________

PortlandRocks:

boomshak did you just make a prediction? I'll be waiting... Your predictions are always so insightful and accurate.

____________________

blakec:

Lay off boom guys. It's hard to argue when you're up against the well known liberal bias of the truth.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

(CBS) With just twelve days left until Election Day, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama holds a 13-point lead over Republican rival John McCain, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows.

____________________

boomshat:

@PortlandRocks

lol! CBS? What next? Maybe we should conduct a national poll only using Daily Kos members?

fail.

____________________

laguna_b:

Scott McClellan backs Obama! http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iTIIAe-yK2dlIpZEP1iUzJUs7k7QD940FA880

Along with the son of Wm F. Buckley...Chris, no former writer for National Review

____________________

PortlandRocks:

WOW! From CBS

Seventy-five percent of registered voters say Obama has the temperament and personality to be president, up 6 points from last week. Nineteen percent say he does not. Only 50 percent say McCain has the proper temperament and personality, while nearly as many - 45 percent - say that he does not.

____________________

Chester:

@ Portland,
got link?

____________________

Cho:

Indiana trending to Obama for the first time on Intrade

____________________

PortlandRocks:

www.cbsnews.com

____________________

mysticlaker:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/23/opinion/polls/main4541781.shtml?tag=topStory;topStoryHeadline

With just twelve days left until Election Day, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama holds a 13-point lead over Republican rival John McCain, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows.

Obama now leads McCain 52 percent to 39 percent among likely voters nationwide, roughly the same lead he held last week. Just five percent are undecided, and more than 9 in 10 of each candidate’s supporters say their mind is made up.

____________________

johncoz:

scottkj:
"Rasmussen will adjust their sample to reduce democrats, as their generic % has decreased by 2%. This plus the McCain surge will force a tightening in this poll."

It would be more challenging if you guys actually had some idea what you were talking about. Rasmussen's method for party weightings is very well documented. I suggest you read it.

Could be hard though, since the URL link in your screen name is an invalid address. Rasmussen's actual URL is www.rasmussenreports.com

Why, oh why, are all you trolls so stupid?

____________________

masselo:

what is the number for the new CBS POLL

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Muahahahahahaah! Our plans to become a socialist country are almost complete! MUAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA!

____________________

laguna_b:

I am planning on going SOMEWHERE election night to celebrate and would LOVE to have Boomshak along. I would be very decent having been on the losing side a few times.....maybe he could get us into the McCain party.....I would be the only one cheering that night though....but it would be fun.

____________________

Dana Adini:

This MSM bias is bull. The media is interested in one thing it's $$$$. For them a nailbiter sells more ads and higher rating. A blowout means people tune out at 11 PM.

To think they would rig the polls towards a blowout in insane

____________________

boomshat:

Give me a break! 13 points! OUTLIER.

____________________

deeznutsrepubs:

Do not give early voting tallies much weight folks. All the Obama supporters will be out early.....the unenthusiastic repubs will come later...and they likely will come. What it does give Obama is for these voters to volunteer on election day. It truly will be an army for Obama on 11/4. Watch out.

Georgia looks good right now - especially for the critical senate race.

Note to Obama - Time to go to MS, GA, TX and KY. Ramp up the Senate race turnout - it'll help you in the next 4 years. Noriega is lagging behind in TX - any extra turnout Obama can muster there will help. Send Slick Willy and Hillary to south texas to get the latino vote to come out.

60 is doable - 61 is within reach. Then we can finally kick that POS, Liebertard, out.


____________________

PortlandRocks:

Obama up 13 in CBS.

Interesting!

"Michelle Obama’s favorable rating is 36 percent, Cindy McCain's at 26 percent.

FACTS - AMERICA NOW KNOWS AND TRUSTS THE OBAMA's

____________________

laguna_b:

Twilight Zone Marathon anyone?

____________________

fox:

CBS number
Summation: (last poll)
Obama - 52 (53)
McCain - 39 (39)

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/23/opinion/polls/main4541781.shtml

LOL at McCain.

____________________

straight talk:

People For McCain! The best thing the RNC can do now is try to save the down ballot! We can talk about a McCain Comeback from hear to the 4th! BUT PLEASE SHOW ME ONE POLL SHOWIN McCain WINNING in the BATTLEGROUND STATES! OUT OF 10 states McCAIN IS EITHER TIED OR LOSING! And obama only needs 1 to put this election away! McCain has to excite his base or we could see a landslide the size of Reagan proportion!

____________________

masselo:

PortlandRocks:

can i get a link for the CBS poll

____________________

johncoz:

@scottkj

Ah, I see you have now removed the URL from your screen name. LOL

____________________

PortlandRocks:

He also leads 52 percent to 42 percent among a group he had difficulty with during the primaries -- white working class voters.

Wait..the PUMAS told me this WOULDN'T HAPPEN?! ROFL FAIL!

____________________

deeznutsrepubs:

laguna_b-

I would fart in his face as the results came in......is that "decent"?

Hey, that's the best I can do after these clowns gave us the tard for the last 8 years.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

I wish Obama & Company would head down here. There are alot of tight races but races that the Dems could win nevertheless. If the idea is to get to 61; it would be a great thing to see either the Obamas or Bidens down here.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Portland

lol! PUMAS? Where did all 8 of them go?

____________________

Basil:

@ scottkj

"Obama Backer attacks, mugs, beats and cuts B in womans face. That says it all about some of the mentality of his backers!!"

The story (hers, presumably) is that the mugger at first took the woman's money at an ATM, but as she walked away he saw a McCain sticker on her car. Then he ran up to her, said something about teaching her a lesson, and cut the
B" on her cheek.

Terrible, certainly, and racist to say the least. I would be willing to bet that a poll of AA crackhead muggers would turn up few McCain supporters but reveal quite a few racist attitudes.

But as far as reflecting badly on Obama or his supporters, you don't have much of a point. You are obviously trying to turn the tables on those who protested McCain and Palin's more incendiary rhetoric of late, but in the absence of any parallel rhetoric from the Obama/Biden camp, your argument fails.

There may not be much difference between a crackhead and a cracker when it comes to hate. What's your excuse?


____________________

kerrchdavis:

Actually, we have 2 PUMAs on this site: KipTin and Boskop. We also have 1 retard..anyone want to guess who that is?

____________________

Dana Adini:

13 points is an outlier. If you take 2004 state weights and apply RCP average you get about 6-7% Obama lead. Can't see 12-13% lead unless the double digit Ohio leads are correct...and THERE IS NO WAY if you aggregate the weighted state polls that McCain is anywhere close to even

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

I was just reading about the Republicans logging onto Obama's website to make "fake" donations. Thanks for the gifts, suckers. Then some lady decided she would make an equal contribution to John McCain's campaign. There's only on problem with that: he can't use it. He accepted public financing.

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Phew! WHAT A DAY POLLSTER CRACK ADDICTS. Let's reflect and look forward to tomorrow!

Minnesota Rasmussen Obama 56, McCain 41 Obama +15
Washington Rasmussen Obama 54, McCain 43 Obama +11
Georgia Rasmussen McCain 51, Obama 46 McCain +5
Pennsylvania SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 41 Obama +12
Kansas SurveyUSA McCain 53, Obama 41 McCain +12
Texas Rasmussen McCain 54, Obama 44 McCain +10
Louisiana Rasmussen McCain 57, Obama 41 McCain +16
National Rasmussen Reports Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7
National Gallup (Traditional)* Obama 50, McCain 46 Obama +4
National Gallup (Expanded)* Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
National Hotline/FD Obama 48, McCain 43 Obama +5
Florida St. Petersburg Times Obama 49, McCain 42 Obama +7
West Virginia Orion Strategies (D) McCain 49, Obama 44 McCain +5
National CBS News/NY Times Obama 52, McCain 39 Obama +13
National ABC News/Wash Post Obama 54, McCain 43 Obama +11
Ohio Big10 Battleground Obama 53, McCain 41 Obama +12
Pennsylvania Big10 Battleground Obama 52, McCain 41 Obama +11
Michigan Big10 Battleground Obama 58, McCain 36 Obama +22
Minnesota Big10 Battleground Obama 57, McCain 38 Obama +19
Wisconsin Big10 Battleground Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13
Iowa Big10 Battleground Obama 52, McCain 39 Obama +13
Indiana Big10 Battleground McCain 41, Obama 51 Obama +10
Illinois Big10 Battleground Obama 61, McCain 32 Obama +29
National IBD/TIPP Obama 45, McCain 44 Obama +1
Pennsylvania Morning Call Obama 52, McCain 42 Obama +10
National GWU/Battleground Obama 49, McCain 45 Obama +4
Ohio Quinnipiac Obama 52, McCain 38 Obama +14
Florida Quinnipiac Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13
Pennsylvania National Journal/FD Obama 51, McCain 41 Obama +10
Minnesota National Journal/FD Obama 50, McCain 40 Obama +10
Wisconsin National Journal/FD Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13
Montana Montana State U. McCain 40, Obama 44 Obama +4
California PPIC Obama 56, McCain 33 Obama +23

____________________

Kile Thomson:

Scott McClellan Endorses Obama

____________________

CaptainJJack:

@Boomshak

While CNBC may be calling the market for McCain, I can assure you that Capital Gains taxes taxes are not the reason.

By far, the largest stock investors are pension plans and 401(k) accounts. The last numbers I saw show 80% of the stock ownership was in qualified funds.

The are no capital gains tax considerations in qualified plans.

This does not even take into account the fact that the research shows that last thing people consider when making a stock investment is the capital gains taxes and right now, they are looking at capital losses, not gains.

Finally, from what I've heard about the traders on Wall Street, they wish they could be so lucky as to have to worry about capital gains taxes this year.

____________________

masselo:

who is scott McClellan

____________________

Dana Adini:

looking at that list. I shake my head in disbelief when I see Montana.... What's next?

"It's night in Wyoming and this is where the world starts"

____________________

Basil:

@kerrchdavis

I'm not retard, but I'm almost old enough. I hope to be happily retard some day.

____________________

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14873.html

WOW I know the right loves scary stories. In light of Halloween coming.. click on the link above. and ENJOY! LOVE - PortlandRocks

____________________

Dana Adini:

former press sec. for GWB

____________________

johncoz:

@Dana Adini:
"13 points is an outlier."

That's a valid point of view. On the other hand, it may be a "best case" scenario of a vaild result (think Pew). Nate discussed this issue earlier today.

The bottom line is that no-one really knows what the correct voter model is, which is why we aggregate.

The one thing we can say for certain is that McCain is screwed.

____________________

boom&KipTinSUCK:

I've been watching MSNBC for a couple of hours
On the David's show all Republicans are referring to the AP poll to suggest that the race is tightening, they seemingly approve that 44% of the electorate are newly-born Christians who are knowingly representing the GOP base.
Bottom line is based on the AP's sample McCain should be ahead, 44% of Christians Are you kidding?

____________________

Basil:

@Portland

OK, I admit it. I'm addicted to cracks. Somebody stop me from making another one.

____________________

laguna_b:

@deeznutsrepubs:

>>>laguna_b-

I would fart in his face as the results came in......is that "decent"?

Hey, that's the best I can do after these clowns gave us the tard for the last 8 years.

The dynamic has to change....if we have all three, Senate, House and President, we can change the dynamic by bringing the whole country together to SOLVE our problems. In doing so we undo all the harm of 8 years of Rove/Gingrich. The current republican way is to hold on to power at all costs....ours should be to govern. Go from divide and conquer to unite and conquer.

____________________

Dana Adini:

Portland...according to my figures Obama is close to 60% in NC in early voting which to date is 23% of total votes cast in 2004.

See Post Above for figures

____________________

Dana Adini:

lol for one AP poll there are 10 others outside the MOE. That's insane

____________________

PortlandRocks:

Nov. 4th is going to be very interesting. I think there will be scenes like after sports teams win championships, but peaceful hopefully. This is going to make the world and many Americans VERY proud. Something to rally around after 8 horrendous years. GOD BLESS AMERICA. Im out!:)

____________________

Kile Thomson:

masselo:
who is scott McClellan

lol ?

White House Press Secretary (2003–2006) for President Bush


____________________

Dana Adini:

johncoz

I agree. O + 6% means > 350 EV. No doubt

____________________

johncoz:

Obama on leaving the campaign trail to visit his grandmother. Watch -- it's only 50sec

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEtzu_6LpYE

____________________

BlueInTexas:

@Portland

I think sometime late in the evening on 11/4 your gonna hear the sound of the entire nation exhaling.

____________________

Dana Adini:

not only that..if McCain loses NC he's toast. Look at the raw numbers with 20% of the vote in. He is real trouble there

____________________

masselo:

hello

____________________

Kjartan:

Hi @all, I read this site for several days now and would like to ask you something about the electoral votes (I am from Germany and very interested in this electoral system): Can the electoral votes change in future elections because of reflecting new demographic changes (more or less voters in the state as before)? Why gets the party who win a state ALL electoral votes and not the percentage of the votes each party gets? It seems to me not very democratic, that a party who gets 50,1 % of the vote as many votes as a party who won with 75 % and vice versa.

Hope my english not too bad.

____________________

Basil:

OK, I'm going serious again, momentarily. I plan to party like it should have been 1999 when Barack is elected, but I really do want it to be a peaceful party.

In a way, it's an issue not unlike election fraud, where Obama's organization (and McCain's for that matter) can help make things better by speaking out and being witnesses for propriety.

Imagine the civil rights movement's angst over the potential for peaceful demonstrations to turn violent.

If anybody wants to quote me on the "party like it should have been 1999" line, please give me some credit. I'm happy about the line, except that 2001, not 2000 was the first year of the Millennium.

____________________

abraxaf:

Kjartan, every 10 years the US has an official Census, and the electoral vote distribution is updated based on the populations determined by that. There are always 538 electors in the electoral college no matter what.

____________________

Dana Adini:

Obama's internal pollster in PA should be fired :)

____________________

blakec:

Electoral votes = seats in the Senate plus seats in the House for that state. As the population shifts and the number of House seats shifts, the number of Electoral votes shifts as well.

This shift occurs every 10 years durning our censous.

Each state decides how these votes are proportioned. Two states do divide the votes by district. 48 states have winner take all elections.

They do this to maximize the importance of the state. Say you have an electorate that is evenly divided.

Say we have two states with 10 electoral votes each. In state 1 the electoral votes are divided based on voting percentage. In state 2 the votes are winner take all.

In state 1 a 51% - 49% election would most likely result in a 6 - 4 or 5 - 5 split of the votes. In state 2 it's 10 - 0. Which state would you fight harder to win?

____________________

Rollin08:

Hey Kjartan,

Yeah, America isn't a true democracy. It's more of a representative republic. It goes back to the colonial days when we didn't have the infrastructure to have everyone vote. The idea was we elect people locally to represent us. They in turn would vote for the president. That's kind of the system we have now, our state congressmen and senators vote on the states consensus.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

@Dana Adini:
"Obama's internal pollster in PA should be fired :)"

That was a total head fake to get McShame to waste his $$ and time in a state that he has ZERO chance of getting. It allowed a few more days of taking over the Red states.

Seems Obama knows how to play ball this election!

____________________

Kjartan:

@abraxaf

thanks for answering my question. I have never heard of this Census. So I guess there are not many changes in the distribution if there are always 538 electors.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

Ok, quick question guys...

We all know that the enthusiasm gap in this election is huge and HORDES of Obama supporters are getting out to vote.

Now, on election day, when CNN or whatever is counting the votes reported by precincts, do those vote tallies INCLUDE early voters? For some reason, I thought early voters were dumped into the tally at the end. In which case, are we going to see McCain leading in some of these states right up to the end when early voting gets added?

For example, is McCain going to be up 6 pts in NC right till the end, when Obama's early voting numbers are added and Obama takes the state by 2 pts or whatever. usually, this isn't a big deal because usually, we don't have this huge enthusiasm gap.

am I making any sense?

____________________

Jeff:

Boomshak: Luckily we live in a democracy where the wall street elite get an equal vote just the same as everyone else. No doubt they'd keep electing Republicans who feed their greedy souls forever if they had the chance. That's how we got into this mess in the first place.

____________________

Rollin08:

err the state's seats in the US Senate plus seats in the US House vote based on their state's consensus.

What two states can split votes?

____________________

blakec:

Nebraska and Maine split the votes. State winner gets the 2 Senate votes and then each House district elects it's own representative to the Electoral College.

____________________

Rollin08:

wow blakec, you really know your stuff!

____________________

BOOMFAIL:

Great question kerrchdavis.

Would really like to know the answer as well!

____________________

Pat:

Kjartan:

The democratic primary is actually designed that way. The problem with that type of a system is that it won't give you a decisive winner and also it will make smaller states less significant/less important. Many people in the US are talking about a "popular vote" structure instead of the current system. But again, this type of a system benefits establishment candidates that have enough money to run in big states like California.

____________________

boom&KipTinSUCK:

@Dana Adini:

"Obama's internal pollster in PA should be fired :"

The Obama's camp is successfully trying to downplay they internal lead in PA, this is very smart, apparently Republicans think it's true
Strategically, when a candidate is ahead he's trying do downplay his lead in order to motivate his base. On the other hand when a candidate is far behind like McCain is in PA he needs encourage his base, to convince his base that he still can win otherwise they could be discouraged and might not turn out as hugely as they are needed to in order to offset the enthusiasm of Obama's voters

____________________

Pat:

@kerrchdavis:

During primaries they were dumping the "early vote" at the beginning, not at the end. I wonder if general election is the same.

____________________

fed:

LOL Joe McCain called 911 because there was to much traffic

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Pat

Either way, it might be annoying because we're going to have no idea till the end who will win the state if its close.

____________________

People here are quite defensive. It's all about McCain loosing and why. I don't see any positive comments promoting their side especially with the anti Boom-Boom wannabes, what's up with that?

____________________

Kjartan:

@blakec:

Ok...so that's why Nebraska and Maine looks a bit different (if I remember right). They do have this divide in districts. Now I see the problem for the presidential election why there are the winner take all states. Let's say they avoid just a logistic challenge? That makes sense in some way.

@Rollin08: In Germany we also can not elect our chancellor or president in a direct way, so we have the same representative way as you have but the execution is a bit different.

____________________

Pat:

@kerrchdavis:

I Agree. Hopefully, it won't be close.

How do you think the MSM will react throughout the evening if early on they know it is over? For example, if Obama wins key swing states like Ohio, PA, FL, VA before polls close in the West, would MSM call it???

____________________

Bigmike:

kerrchdavis

"Now, on election day, when CNN or whatever is counting the votes reported by precincts, do those vote tallies INCLUDE early voters?"

It will be all over the map. Remember, elections are LOCAL. Each precinct will report when they have counted their votes. Makes no difference which they count first if they don't report a number until they are thru with them all.

That's the short answer of how it should work, in theory.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@Pat

I would think so. I think each Media Organization will want to be the first to call it...they're usually just cautious because it could backfire like it did in '00.

____________________

deeznutsrepubs:

boomfail - nate at 538 has shown that many pollsters now account for cell only users. if obama has a 13 point lead, he would have close to 400 EVs. He doesn't, so he doesn't.

He will win - no doubt. But the national tally is unlikely 13 points. For that to be the case, all the state polls today are way wrong. In any case, this year will be the first where there will be a skewing due to demographic and so influencing the national vs. state polling relationship.

11/4 will be fun. I am pulling for Kleeb in NE - he is going to be great. The guy is a rising star in the Dem party. I think he could be president in a decade or so. He would be good for Obama to run with in '12. Groom him for '16 is what I say. I'm getting carried away though - he is lagging that rove hack, johanns, right now.

____________________

Kjartan:

@Pat:

Another good point to have a winner take all system. I have never thought of those problems. I did not have in mind that the vastness (?) of the USA could determine an electoral system.

____________________

boomshak:

McCain/Palin is going to win. There is a chance Gallup will go statistical dead heat tomorrow.

Obama's Campaign is crumbling from beneath him. That's why the MSM is putting out these utter bs polls.

Tomorrow:

GWU O+2
AP O+1
TIP O+1
Gallup O+2

Possible. Possible.

____________________

deeznutsrepubs:

put the crack pipe down boomshat

____________________

blakec:

@Kjartan

The Constitution puts the manner in which the electors are selected in the states hands. So, even if it isn't even for every state, people can change it at any time through an act in their state legislature.

"Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector."

____________________

Bigmike:

Usually the first returns you see are from rural areas. Not too many votes to count. And they do tend to favor Repubs.

Usually the last precincts to report are the largest urban areas. Lots more votes to count, unless a significant number vote early. And they tend to vote Dem.

Remember 2004. Kerry was trailing in OH, but it was urban precincts that reported last. That is why no one was calling OH either way until late in the evening.

____________________

hedgehog75:

I really think Mr Boomshak is day-dreaming. He will probably be much disappointed on Nov. 5th. Rather than getting tighter, it seems that "victory flying to victory", it is going to be a memorable landslide election for Obama...

____________________

gymble:

@Kjartan

It used to be that the number in the Electoral College (and House of Representatives) wasn't fixed. As the population grew (and states were added), so did the House and the number of Representatives allotted to each state. Then, in 1913 (I think), it was decided that the House was becoming too big and unwieldy. So the number of Representatives was fixed at 435. Every state is guaranteed at least one Representative and the rest are assigned proportionally.

One of the weird side effects from the Electoral College, is that states with smaller populations have a larger per capita vote - each electoral vote in the larger states (California, Texas, etc.) represents ~650,000 people while in the smaller states (Wyoming, Vermont) each electoral vote represents ~200,000. Mostly, this is because the Electoral College is the Representatives + Senators (and every state has two Senators), which throws off the proportional assignment of Representatives. Given this, it's sort of shocking that there haven't been more instances of Presidents losing the popular vote and winning the Electoral College.

____________________

hou04:

IBD/TIPP poll is in the ONLY poll Drudge is mentioning in RED letters on his site... :)

____________________

Dana Adini:

notice how boom has foresaken Zogby his pollster of choice last week

____________________

mysticlaker:

I can't believe McCain is conceding already (not a joke). This has to hurt the people working on his campaign. It's kinda sad (almost)....

Kerry fought to the bitter finish and as a big supporter I was never angry with him. He lost because he thought politics was better than it really is...He brought a water pistol to a gun fight....

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/23/153446/90/696/640024

____________________

Kjartan:

Yeah, I remember the 2000 election very well. In Germany we were very confused about the election in Florida and the decision of the Supreme Court. Many of us did not understand what had happened there that Al Gore got more popular votes than Bush. This year there are some questions about the election that there were some computers in the early votes which do not count the vote that the voter wanted. Could there be a Florida 2000 happen again?

____________________

Bigmike:

mysticlaker

Its on the daily kos and it aint a joke? Thats a first.

____________________

hou04:

Also, Sean Hannity was clinging to the IBD/TIPP poll today and dismissing all "other whacko pollsters showing Obama ahead". LOL!

Now Rasmussen and Zogby are whackos, and he has them on his radio show as his "own" pollsters every week.

____________________

Rollin08:

Yeah, I think we're on the verge of the John McCain victory and today we just saw the beginning of it. That's why the numbers weren't that great today..

____________________

JCK:

New surveyUSA poll in Indiana.

Obama 49
McCain 45

Third poll in a row to show an Obama lead. This is shaping up to be a landslide.

____________________

mysticlaker:

It is becoming obvious that McCain is implementing a scorched earth move. My theory is that he feels burned by the right wing part of the party. He had to take Palin, he had to appease them with crazy ideas and proposals. It ****ed him and this is his revenge. I can't figure out why else he would act this way. He is saying **** the whole thing. That is why he really only talks about Ayers with passion. He feels Obama is not worthy of the position of President, and Ayers reflects it...

____________________

Dana Adini:

Hannity is like boomshak.....find that outlier talk up the pollster.

Hannity talked up zogby who was out of work...now he's at Obama + 12

lol there's a sucker born every day

____________________

Dana Adini:

look at the early vote numbers. They are outstanding for Obama

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

Georgia and NC may reach 50% early voting by November 4th.....huge Dem advantage

____________________

jonny87:

@JCK

got a link?

____________________

newageblues:

I got a thing for the underdog, I'm starting to feel sorry for McCain. If it gets any worse for the Repubs, I'll probably even start feeling sorry for Palin.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

The CBS poll is out. Boomshak go get some lattes for everyone. The polls are tightening . . . . John McCain's sphincter.

It amazes me that the dude is going to his own election party. He courts the votes of the agents of intolerance but he won't party with them. They should feel sick to their stomachs that $150,000 dollars of their campaign contributions went to dress up Palin.

Boomshak, go get us some lattes.

____________________

If this keeps up, Obama's on his way to 400 electoral votes. Could happen with West Virginia, Indiana and Georgia.

____________________

Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

My last statement should have read "It amazes me that the dude isn't going to his own election party".

Where are the lattes, Boomshak?

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

Why don't more people realize that Barack HUSSEIN Obama is to the left of Stalin? How is being to the left of Stalin going to solve the current economic crisis that we're in, libs?

I'd like to hear you liberals tackle this one!

____________________

Kile Thomson:
____________________

JCK:

@jonny87

Www.whas11.com

Look on the right column.

____________________

cinnamonape:

kercchdavis- I believe that they will release the card-counted and electronic early-voting data at @ 8:30 on Election night. Absentee ballots and paper ballots delivered before the deadline will be "prepared" the day before for counting the next day. Those will likely be released fairly quickly as well.

Where the problem lies is in the hand-delivered absentee ballots and provisional ballots. These require some confirmation process...so those results are often delayed.

What I would expect is the networks to be able to take the results from early voting, and combine these with exit polls and some evidence of turnout on the day of the election to make an assessment fairly quickly in some cases.

If however the results in the day-of voting counter-balance the early voting...they may have to wait. Further complicating the issue is whether a provisional voter might get surveyed at an exit poll and then have their vote nullified. If there are a lot of these it could be a long evening in some States.

But if there are clear results in many East Coast States the outcome could be "known" by well before 8 PM on the West Coast. Hopefully this would not dampen turnout by Obama supporters as there are some significant ballot measures out here in California (e.g. Prop 4 & 8).

____________________

sunnymi:

Tempers Run High in the McCain Family!

Dept. of fraying tempers

John McCain's brother exchanged sharp words with a police operator after calling 911 to complain about traffic.

His call, and a call back to reprimand him for an inappropriate use of the service, were recorded by City of Alexandria Police, WJLA first reported.

Here's the exchange:

Operator: 911 state your emergency

Caller: It's not an emergency but do you know why on one side at the damn drawbridge of 95traffic is stopped for 15 minutes and yet traffic's coming the other way?

Operator: Sir, are you calling 911 to complain about traffic? (pause)

Caller: "(Expletive) you." (caller hangs up)

The operator then called back, and received this message: "Hi this is Joe McCain I can't take this message now because I'm involved in a very ... important political project... I hope on Nov. 4th we have elected John."

McCain then apparently called 911 again, to complain about the message.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Dept_of_fraying_tempers.html

____________________

Bigmike:

Tatham

If the national polls are anywhere close to accurate when compared to the actual vote, 400 would not be a surprise. Just look at history. GHWB beat Dukakis by just under 8 pts and got 426 EV. Reagan beat Carter by just under 10 pts and got 489 EV. If Obama does win with a 6-8 point margin, I would expect somethng around 400 EV.

And if it ends up within a point or two, the EV can go either way. Thats why this isn't over yet.

____________________

mysticlaker:

oh my god! boomshak is hannity. that explains it all. oh my god!

____________________

alankeyesisawesome:

Why is Obama lying on some beach in Hawaii while America is in a financial crisis and the election is just two weeks away?

____________________

RussTC3:
More than 210,000 blacks who are registered as Democrats have cast early ballots in the Tar Heel State - compared with roughly 174,000 registered Republicans overall. Four years ago, the number of GOP early and absentee voters was more than double that of black Democrats.
Wow.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/AfricanAmericans_turn_out_en_masse_for_early_voting.html

____________________

mysticlaker:

oh my god! boomshak is hannity. that explains it all. oh my god!

____________________

johncoz:

@alankeyesisawesome

He's trying to get a tan.

[Warning: satire]

____________________

Publius:

Traveling today and just got to sit down and look at the numbers. What a marvelous day for Obama. I agree that they can't all be that good, especially the Big Ten numbers, but the trends are looking mighty steady toward Obama.

If I were Stalin, I'd take a day at a Hawaiian beach too.

____________________

jonny87:

thanks for the link

____________________

NextAmericanChapter:

@newageblues

I understand your empathy but please please please don't feel sorry for McCain and Palin...

feel sorry for the 4,000 who have died fighting a war that should never have been authorized and never been waged;

feel sorry for the 760,000 that have lost their job this year;

feel sorry for the 47 million without healthcare or the thousands that have been rendered bankrupt due to crippling healthcare costs.

With a week and half to go, let's keep focused on what this election is about...a referendum on FAILED Republican domestic and foreign policies...we need to make the Republicans OWN THEIR FAILURES!!!

After kicking the Republicans out, we need to fundamentally shift our national economic model from trickle-down to bottom-up. Democrats have ALWAYS been better than Republicans on the economy simply because the US economy is predominantly consumer based i.e. largely dependent on the robustness of the middle-class and Obama is ALL about the middle-class.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

I agree with boomshak, only a fool would average out poll results and come to a site like this. A real smart American moves from poll to poll day by day. If you dont like it...look somewhere else.

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

The Indiana numbers are so encouraging. Here in the Hoosier state we are absolutely energized, and the polls today have done nothing but fired up an already electrified organization and ground game.

We're seeing an amazing number of volunteers from Illinois and a great response from Hoosier voters. I live in a northern suburb of Indianapolis, an area that's becoming much more open to Democrats and progressives. If Obama can hold his own in the southern part of the state then has a great shot at winning Indiana.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

McCain's win percentage is down to 3.7% on fivethirtyeight. This is the perfect situation for McCain because 3% underdog is his best position and where he mounts a comeback.

____________________

boomshak:

AND NOW FOR SOME FUNNY STUFF WE CALL CAN ENJOY: THE MCCAIN/OBAMA DANCE OFF!

I have no idea how the hell they did this, but it's cool and funny as sh*t...

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/10/23/finally-the-mccainobama-dance-off/

____________________

mysticlaker:

who wants some nice pictures? richmond, va

http://media.gatewayva.com/photos/rtd/slideshows/20081023rally/

Enjoy.

____________________

Viperlord:

OMG! Jimmy Carter didn't destroy the economy, and Ronald Reagan didn't save it?! NO! THIS VIOLATES THE CONSERVATIVE VERSION OF REALITY!

Oh wait.

____________________

Viperlord:

WTF? Didn't include the link. HERE. http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/L-carterreagan.htm

____________________

[nemesis]:

WOW, even with two absolutely crazy polls included in their average, RCP is showing a 7.5 Obama average lead. Remove the insane AP an IBD polls, and the average is actually O +8.6.

____________________

marctx:

So are congressional, senate, and presidential seats up for grabs this election?

Anybody know if McCain and Obama are running for re-election on 11/04 for their senate seats?

If so, what happens to the seat of the winner?

____________________

Rollin08:

This too:
"More than 210,000 blacks who are registered as Democrats have cast early ballots in the Tar Heel State - compared with roughly 174,000 registered Republicans overall. Four years ago, the number of GOP early and absentee voters was more than double that of black Democrats."

What a movement this has been guys. I'm proud to have been a part of it. Lets push this home and make a statement here.

____________________

wakeup:

Lied to a pollster today... and it felt GREAT!

____________________

wakeup:

marctx,
governor appoints replacement.

____________________

Rollin08:

Good question marctx I was wondering that too.

____________________

boom&KipTinSUCK:

@wakeup

The fact that one ass*ole like you lied to a pollster doesn't mean all people do or it's enough to offset Obama's support

Obama/Biden 08
Let's get rid of those asshole Republicans now

____________________

sunnymi:


Record voter registration numbers in MI

98% of Voting Age Population registered to Vote to Michigan

http://michigan.gov/som/0,1607,7-192--202226--,00.html

____________________

sunnymi:

Neither Obama nor McCain are up for re-election this time. The Governor of the respective state appoints a replacement.

Biden is running for re-election though!

____________________

thoughtful:

@marctx

390+EVs

____________________

marctx:

wakeup:

"marctx,governor appoints replacement."

Thanks. So the seat will go democrat no matter who wins??? Aren't both democrats?

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

I personally have convinced 25million people to lie to pollsters. Come election day people will be in for a surprise.

____________________

OneAngryDwarf:

@marctx

I know for sure that AZ is and I believe that IL is as well.

____________________

sunnymi:


Arizona seems to be the only exception to this rule. No temporary replacements are allowed under their state constitution. An election is the only way to replace a vacancy to a congressional seat in AZ.

http://www.azleg.state.az.us/const/7/17.htm

____________________

Viperlord:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1023-mccain-on-life.html Bwahahaha. Now, back to reading about the greatest President the US ever had. (Except Washington)

____________________

[nemesis]:

Viperlord:

Reading about Clinton?

____________________

falcon79:

actually boom i am so glad u support mccain
kinda helps lower GOP credibility :)

____________________

marctx:

thoughtful:

"@marctx: 390+EVs"

Did I ask about that? Haven't seen comments from you lately...still sore because I let posters know you are a foreigner?

Were you the one the attacked a McCain volunteer and carved a "b" in her face in PA?

____________________

Rollin08:

Hey Boom, what is the latest scoop as to why it's going to change?

____________________

Rollin08:

Is it the "b" in the face?

____________________

marctx:

Rollin08:

"Is it the "b" in the face?"

Are you making a joke about violence toward 20 year old women attacked by Obama supporters?

Look at the picture?

http://www.drudgereport.com/

____________________

mrzookie:

15 minutes to the SUSA Bachmann/Tinklenberg poll. Can't wait to blow that fascist out to Alaska where she can commiserate with her buddy Sarah.

____________________

CaliforniaIndie:

Mrzookie: will you post that info on here when it's out? Plenty of us are salivating for data on that race.

____________________

Basil:

Obama gets to keep his senate seat and be president at the same time. Both Dick Cheney and Sarah Palin told him so.

____________________

mrzookie:

HELLO BABY! Tinklenber 47 Backmann 44. YES WE CAN AND YES WE WILL!!

____________________

Dana Adini:

She is one scary person....hope she goes down in flames

____________________

mrzookie:

u betcha!!

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@boomshak

No one is talking about raising capital gains taxes from 15 to 28%, although I'd raise them to at least 50% on unimproved property. There is no reason to encourage land speculation or speculation in property. On the other hand, I'd eliminate capital gains taxes on most stuff, and I'm a liberal. I'd cut income taxes for people earning less than $1,000,000/year, indexed annually for inflation. I'd replace the lost revenue with higher sales taxes on items other than food and medicines. I'd increase taxes on heavier and fuel-guzzling cars because they reduce American security and they impose far higher externalities than less heavy lower fuel-guzzing cars. I would eliminate nearly all deductions in the income tax code in return for lower rates. Anyway, there is nothing problematic that I can see in Obama's economic program, at least in comparison to the very biased and inefficient program that McCain wants to implement.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

@boomshak

No one is talking about raising capital gains taxes from 15 to 28%, although I'd raise them to at least 50% on unimproved property. There is no reason to encourage land speculation or speculation in property. On the other hand, I'd eliminate capital gains taxes on most stuff, and I'm a liberal. I'd cut income taxes for people earning less than $1,000,000/year, indexed annually for inflation. I'd replace the lost revenue with higher sales taxes on items other than food and medicines. I'd increase taxes on heavier and fuel-guzzling cars because they reduce American security and they impose far higher externalities than less heavy lower fuel-guzzing cars. I would eliminate nearly all deductions in the income tax code in return for lower rates. Anyway, there is nothing problematic that I can see in Obama's economic program, at least in comparison to the very biased and inefficient program that McCain wants to implement.

____________________

miatch:

Hey Boomer,
Turns out even Michelle Malkin isn't buying the "B" carved into the girl's face:
http://michellemalkin.com/2008/10/23/why-that-mccain-volunteers-mutilation-story-smells-awfully-weird/

FAIL FAIL FAIL FAIL

____________________

hou04:

Any word on tomorrow's numbers for Zogby yet?

____________________

Indiana4Obama:

The Cap gains tax is an overblown issue. Raising it makes sense and won't hurt middle class America.

The vast majority of Americans have stock and mutual funds in retirement plans or IRAs that are tax deferred. They'll be taxed as income upon distribution.

As Warren Buffett says, "I don't want my secretary paying a higher tax rate than me."

____________________

CaliforniaIndie:

That's a 9 point jump for Tinklenberg in the week since the end-of-her-political-career interview. It's even harder to watch the second time.

Awesome.

____________________

mrzookie:

I'm psyched about Tinkley. I've never made a donation to a congressional candidate before, but had to make one to him, and I'm 1000 miles away from MN.

____________________

zotz:

marctx-
That's not convinving. An "O" maybe but not "B". Has she sold her story yet? People will do many strange things for money or even attention.

____________________

Rollin08:

I'm sorry, I don't mean it to sound like a joke. The joke is you guys coming on here thinking it should change the election. He didn't order this mugger that hangs out by the bank teller machine to do it.

You come on here saying: "WERE YOU the one the attacked a McCain volunteer and carved a "b" in her face in PA?".. is that a joke?...

____________________

mac7396:

"marctx:
Rollin08:

"Is it the "b" in the face?"

Are you making a joke about violence toward 20 year old women attacked by Obama supporters?

Look at the picture?

http://www.drudgereport.com/"

She's lucky she wasn't shot. Instead the attacker used a spoon or possibly his fingernails for this assault. Atleast I can understand why she didn't go to the hospital, because the skin wasn't even broken.


____________________

Basil:

@marctx

Your original comment to thoughtful was uncalled for.

Get as angry as you like about the racist crackhead AA criminal and his indefensible act of violence against his innocent victim. I'm sure Mr. Drudge would love it if you kept ranting. Did he convince you this was Obama's fault? Do you think there are Obama supporters out there celebrating this heinous crime?

Obama doesn't make speeches calling people anti-american traitors and foreigners, but you seem to have no problem making whatever accusations pop into your head. Give us all a break.

Good luck spinning this event as proof that Obama and McCain/Palin are engaging in equally inflammatory rhetoric. They aren't.

Are you catching this, Kjartan? If so, I'm sorry. I dare say most people on this site are happy to have "foreigners" here. The US is 99% a nation of foreigners, unfortunately for Native Americans. And marctx doesn't sound like one of them.

This unfortunate and terrible crime is just the sort of thing racists from the 1960's used to claim that the civil rights movement was inherently violent. They were wrong then and they are wrong now.

____________________

Boris_Dieter:

Excuse me folks, but the allegedly heinous event involving an attack on a McCain supporter is now widely suspected, even by Michelle Malkin, as a totally phony claim. A bit of googling will establish how suspicious this event is. Come on folks, a robber takes the time to get pissed off at a McCain bumper sticker to etch a B into someone's face? Puuuuuulease.

____________________

Basil:

In the absence of evidence to the contrary, I've assumed the attack story to be true. Of course, I hope it isn't, but I don't want to do the stereotypical "blame the woman" thing.


____________________

zotz:

Basil-
marc is jelous of thoughtful because he/she travels the world and has a glamorous life and that makes marc angry. Well, I'm not crazy about the rich either but at least thoughtful is thoughtful. That's another thing marc doesn't like, too elitest.

____________________

Rollin08:

Basil:"Are you catching this, Kjartan? If so, I'm sorry. I dare say most people on this site are happy to have "foreigners" here. "

I love seeing the hoge poge of supporters come together at Obama's rally. When I was a kid this is what I thought America was about.

Would an American born muslin even dare go to a McCain rally?

____________________

miatch:

@Mac7396

She did it to herself. The B is backwards, cuz she used a mirror and is too stupid to understand how mirrors work:

Even Michelle Malkin is calling BS:
http://michellemalkin.com/2008/10/23/why-that-mccain-volunteers-mutilation-story-smells-awfully-weird/

EPIC FAIL FAIL FAIL FAIL

____________________

zotz:

Look at the picture closely. Her eye is not swollen. The black around her eye looks like makeup or soot. The backwards B could even be from a marker.

____________________

Basil:

@zotz

Thanks. I saw the photo marc was so incensed about, and the mention that the woman (from Texas, like marc) didn't seek any medical attention at the time. That tells me that she wasn't bleeding profusely and didn't require stitches, which suggests that the terms "carved" and "mutilation" are gross exaggerations.

Maybe there's some misguided chivalry at work here.

Do I recall that Zotz! was a book from the 50's or 60's? Maybe I should google it, eh?

____________________

miatch:

Basil,

Clearly from the photo she has not been "carved" ... there isn't a drip of blood. Let's say her skin has been "irritated".

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@mrzookie (or anyone),
could you please link me to that Tinklenberg/Bachmann SUSA poll? Thanks!

Btw, I just came back from a DFL event, where I told Tinklenberg campaign people to make sure they send Bachmann a thank you card for her Hardball interview and repeated cameos to explain thereafter. Every time she tries to explain, the hole gets a little bit deeper and the stench of death ever so pungent.

A special thanks to all the pollster financial supporters of El's MN CD6 campaign. If you ever find yourselves in these here woods, the beer is on me.

____________________

MNLatteLiberal:

@ Shannon, Dallas, Texas:
boomshak tells me you keep asking for me. Wassup?
:)

____________________

Basil:

@ whomever

Now that my annoyance with marc has subsided, it occurs to me that the fact that this happened in Pennsylvania (the basket into which McCain seems to be putting so many of his cracked eggs) is a coincidence that would likely be lost on a cranked-up mugger but not on a McCain campaign worker.

____________________

boomshack:

Basil:
@BooBoo
I'm trying to help you, but you're talking to yourself. Just say "I am boomshack. I am boomshack. I am boomshack." three times


It worked!! Someone called?

____________________

boomshack:

Basil, are you suggesting that the woman started to misspell "Palin"?

____________________

johncoz:

Whoops!

From the website of America's "most accurate" pollster, Tipp.

"As the 2008 Presidential Election season unfolds and November 2nd draw nearer, keep checking back to see where the candidates stand." (emphasis added)

Hmmm

____________________



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