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US: Sotomayor (Rasmussen-6/1-2)


Rasmussen Reports
6/1-2/09; 1,000 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: IVR

National

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of Sonia Sotomayor? (5/27 results)

    48% Favorable (49)
    44% Unfavorable (36)

The United States Senate has the constitutional authority to confirm all Supreme Court nominees. Based upon what you know at this time, should the United States confirm Sonia Sotomayor as a Supreme Court Justice? (5/27 results)

    41% Yes (45)
    36% No (29)

(source)

 

Comments
Stillow:

I agree with the majoirty, she should be confirmed, she is clearly qualified for the position. While I persnally disagree with many of her decisions and feel she has questionable judgement on key issues, president Obama has every right to nominate her and she has every right to interprate the law with a liberal slant....I hope the GOP brings forth her questionable judgement on key issues, but does not abstruct her nomination. Obama won the election and has the right to nominate who he feels is best....that is why we have elections.

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Alan Abramowitz:

As usual, Rasmussen gets much higher negatives and a much closer division between positive and negative opinions than other major polls. This is consistent with Rasmussen's presidential approval polling which shows much higher disapproval and closer division between approval and disapproval than almost every major poll.

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Stillow:

When you compare Rasmussen's polling with actual election results he is usually one of the most accurate pollsters out there. His polls should not be dismissed since his accuracy rating is quite good.

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SlimGuy:

Alan

I would help if you understood more of the method of the poll being taken.

Rasmussen requires a choice to be made to be included in the poll results.

Others allow people to opt out with an undecided option.

Some reflect the percentage of undecided sample member ,others don't. You have to look at the totals to see if they add up to 100%.

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SlimGuy:

In the presidential approval polls you see a series of data points above the disapproval line and another series below.

USUALLY the size of the gap between the two data sets indicates the magnitude of the undecided pool.

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kingsbridge77:

To Stillow:

The fact that a pollster is accurate in elections doesn't mean he can't suck in opinion polls that cannot be deemed right or wrong by election results.

If Rasmussen found that 99% dislike Sotomayor and 1% don't, there would be no way to confirm this, because there is no referendum scheduled on the subject.

Rasmussen may use his election-day accuracy to build "credibility" when it comes to wedge issues that divide liberals and conservatives.

The fact is that even when Rasmussen gets it right in elections, the difference between Rasmussen and other pollsters is only a few percentage points.

But when it comes to non-election polls, the difference between results by Rasmussen and other pollsters is tremendously high.

How do you explain that the margin between Rasmusen and other pollsters in non-election opinion polls is so much higher than the margin in election polls that can be verified by election results?

Rasmussen is not stupid. He is a smart wingnut. He knows that he can't make up crappy election polls because election results can be used against him. That's not the case in a poll about Sotomayor.

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Alan Abramowitz:

Rasmussen's forced choice format does not explain the discrepancy between his presidential approval results and those from almost all other major polls. Nor can it explain why the postive-negative gap is so much smaller on Sotomayor. Moreover, forcing respondents to make a choice on a question that many have not formed a meaningful opinion about is bound to produce misleading results.

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Stillow:

@kingsbridge77

What are you talking about? What was that ramble all about? I just said you cannot dismiss his polls based on accuracy as it pertains to elections. If you want to say he lies or makes up results that is fine, I think he is one of ht ebetter pollsters, but that is me. Opinion polls are just that, opinion...and without an election its difficult to get accurate results. Q has polls out today showinglarge disagreement with Sonia on some of her rulings....

No need to ramble at me on this one man....

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BobinOakland:

In the case of the poll, it's more interesting to look at the shift than the actual results. Her Favorables are stable, but she's taken a pounding in the press and is unable to directly rebut the accusations, so her negatives were bound to go up.

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RussTC3:

I love Rasmussen polling. I mean, he tries SO hard to try to change the narrative in the public/media, but he just continues to fail. It's fun to watch. lol

He must know that it's kinda hard to do that when you're the ONLY polling organization showing a different result.

Oh well. At least he stops with the manipulation during the last week of election years. That keeps him from being totally worthless.

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conspiracy:

Mmmm. Very different to the AP numbers for roughly the same days (6/1-2 versus 5/28-6/1/09). Only 18% unfavorable there. And just 22% oppossing confirmation. I agree with Bob, though, that any movement in Rasmussen is due to media pounding and a lack of sufficient rebuttal.

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kingsbridge77:

Stillow, the reason why you said I was rambling is that you were angry, since I caught you using election polls as justification for non-election polls, ignoring the fact that election polls give the pollster no other choice than doing his best (because election results can be used to determine the accuracy of each poll).

You understood my explanation, but since you are not embarassed (and angry, like I said), you pretend I was "rambling."

Try again, and learn the distinction between election and non-election polls. There will be no referendum on Sotomayor's confirmation, therefore Rasmussen can invent any number he wants.

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change:

How is it that Rasmussen shows lower approval and higher disapproval then any other polling brand, and i really mean ANY other polling brand? His polls are so volatile its not even funny, Obama has lost like 7 points in a matter of days according to this "approval index." He also shows up on fox quite a bit!

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kingsbridge77:

I meant "you are now embarassed." not "you are not embarassed." Sorry about the typo.

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kingsbridge77:

@Stillow:

You lied, Stillow, when you said the following:
"I just said you cannot dismiss his polls based on accuracy as it pertains to elections. "

You never said that. You said the contrary: You said earlier: "His polls should not be dismissed since his accuracy rating is quite good."

As you can see, Stillow, you are a liar. Don't you wish we had the ability to delete or previous post? That feature would be perfect for you. Unfortunately, we can see what you wrote all day.

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Stillow:

@kingsbridge77

Do you work for msnbc or soemthing? your taking my whole comment out of context....picking one sentence and ignoring the rest...rasmussen's accuracy is quite good when compared to election results....no one can refute that as numbers do not lie.

its impossible to get accurate opinion polling, there's no election to verify the results. If polling was perect we'd have no need for elections .

no one is lying, if you wish to dismiss rasmussen your free to do so, my comments are accurate and it was my opinion, that is what a blog is, opinion! don't go all olberman on me man...no need for that.

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Stillow:

...and many of you feel ras sways to the right in his results, that may be true to an extent, but no different than other pollsters sway to the left for example....cnn, dailykox, ppp and a bunch of others will sway a little towards one direction or the toher...that is why people who watch polling don't put all there money on one poll and they are looked at in groups and then averaged to try and get the best result...without an election to verify, opinion polling can only be so accurate....to dismiss one pollster and support another based on which way they sway is allowing your partisan views to dictate what you want to see in a poll result....you should not dismiss him, i stand by my comment.

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BobinOakland:

Here's Gallup:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/118988/Majority-Americans-Favor-Sotomayor-Confirmation.aspx?CSTS=alert

54/28 in favor of confirming. Rass is off target again.

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kingsbridge77:

Let's see, Stillow. How far "to the left" does the CNN poll swing? Then compare it to Rasmussen, whose goal in life seems to make Republicans feel happier.

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IdahoMulato:

Ras has been massaging the numbers. I believe they do a good job but I don't believe their numbers. They only present the right numbers getting close to elction day.

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IdahoMulato:

Ras polls are always skewed ostensibly to make the right wingers happy and give them hope. There's nothing wrong about that for that purpose. That's why I don't take their numbers too seriously becuase it's not intended for me.

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Bigmike:

Of course us Conservatives like to think Ras is right on and everyone else is in the tank for the Libs. And most of the MSM, including polling organizations, are left wing.

Excuse me if I a little cynical, but it's like anything else in politics. Follow the money. If someone, individual or organization, is paying for a poll and they don't get satisfactory results, are they going to use the same polling firm next time? They all have little tricks they use to stay employed. But, what the heck, at least they have a job.

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conspiracy:
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