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US: Sotomayor (Rasmussen 6/29-30)


Rasmussen
6/29-30/09; 1,000 likely Voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: IVR

(source)

National

The United States Senate has the constitutional authority to confirm all Supreme Court nominees. Based upon what you know at this time, should the United States confirm Sonia Sotomayor as a Supreme Court Justice?
37% Yes, 39% No

 

Comments
Stillow:

Its quite possible the numbers changed due to the firefighter case. The media wasn't really mentioning her position in that case, but when the SC overturned her ruling, it got covered...and polls show people overwhelmingly supported the firefighters in that case....and this poll was taken this week when that SC overturn occured. Its never good to be wrong on your ruling and have the SC overturn you....and also have 65+ percent in opposition of your view on a high profile case like that.

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kingsbridge77:

It is also quite possible that Rasmussen is a right-wing hack whose non-election polls always differ greatly from all the other polls taken on any given issue, and who always seems to find a way to make conservative happy via his poll results.

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RussTC3:

Nah, the only thing that has changed is that Rasmussen released a new poll.

The evidence out there in favor of Sotomayor's confirmation supersedes this latest Rasmussen outlier (62/25--ABC/Post; 54/24--Quinnipiac; 54/28--USA Today/Gallup; Pew--50/25).

Oh but wait, Rasmussen's trend line (45/29, 41/36, 42/34, 37/39) is more plausible.

Once again I ask, if not for Rasmussen (R) who would we laugh at? Good times.

As to the rest of what you wrote...well...your opinions aren't in line with the facts.

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conspiracy:

What a joke. People could easily be answering no because they thought they were being asked if she should be confirmed regardless (that was how I read it at first). And on the firefighters - Souter (who she will replace) agreed with her. As did the other liberal justices.

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Stillow:

Yes but quite often people ignore the actual vote, which is often 5-4 and they only see that the SC overturns or upholds a certain ruling. In the fireighter case, the SC just Monday morning overturned her unpopular ruling on that case, that clearly could have an affect on her approval. Personally, though she is a liberal, I feel she shoud be confirmed, but it makes perfect sense that since htis poll was taken after the overturn by the SC that people took that ruling to heart. She was obviously in the minitoriy in her ruling....the people and the SC supported the firefighters in this case, so by her being on the other side could lead people to not want her confirmed if they disagreed with her initial position. People these days are just sick of racism...and that case was very clearly a example of racism, to me it makes sense her approval numbers would go down since she was against public opinion...and ultimately against the majoirty on the SC.

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sjt22:

and ultimately against the majoirty on the SC

Pretty much every SC justice goes has gone against the majority of the court dozens of times (that is, anytime they dissent). In this particular case 4 of the 9 justices went against the majority. Is this supposed to be some black mark against them?

On a separate issue, part of the problem is the labeling of this as "Her decision". She didn't make the decision. A lower court decided a case, and after careful deliberation the Appeals court judges, one of which happened to be Sotomayor, determined that the law had been correctly applied, at least according to the legal precedent as it existed at the time.

Not having an actual ruling from SCOTUS to go by, the appeals court did what appeals courts do, which is do their best to get through the muddy waters of the law. It seems they got it close to correct, according to the SCOTUS ruling.

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Stillow:

@sjt22

Your points are all technical ones...I am referring to why her approval may have dropped. She was on the wrong side of an issue that the american people overwhelmingly disagree with her on...so it would make perfect sense for there opinion to change of her based on that. Both a majoirty of the SC and the general public disagree with her stance on this high profile case...and that very well could have hurt her numbers.
Keep in mind, hte public doesn't pay to much attention to the technicals of an issue....

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Stephen_W:

So Stillow, you're honestly trying to make the argument that there was a 30 point swing in approval for Sotomayor based on a 5-4 decision by the Supreme Court on the firefighters case? That kind of a swing would imply that not only has she lost the support of most independents, but that a significant percentage of hispanic voters have also turned on her.

Rasmussen doesn't even try to mask the partisanship in his polling now. Can someone please explain to me why his Obama Approval Index is based on the number who "strongly support" him, vs. the number who "strongly disapprove"? Why doesn't he just take a poll of the difference between how many Americans are very liberal vs. those who are very conservative. It's useless, yet he continues to use it as an approval index.

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Stillow:

No, not just the majoirty of the SC, but the polls I have seen have all been 65+ in favor of the firefighters...the media largely avoided covering her stance on that case...when the SC overturned her ruling from the appeals court, the media was forced to cover it and many people found out she supported what most people consider racism by the city of new haven. So it would be natural for people to say, wait a minute, I didn't know this, maybe she isn't so great after all. She took the liberal position in that case....and as the gallup poll showed us only 21 percent cosnider themselves liberal in their views....so it owuld be natural for a backlash to occur on suhc a case. This poll was taken after the SC overtunred her ruling and hte media covered it pretty deeply the past couple of days. In a case where people view it as a racist to deny the firemen there promotions...and her being on the oppositte side of a large majoirty out there, it makes sense her numbers owuld decline. Most people do not like racism anymore in any form, and since they viewed this case as racist against the white firemen, it makes absolute perfect sense her numbers would decline.

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Bigmike:

Sotomayor polls are meaningless. She is as good as confirmed. Politically, it was a shrewd move. Like it or lump it.

Presidents should get their nominees approved, unless they are just not qualified. Thats one of the perks of winning. Bork was a bad precedent to set.

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sjt22:

@ Stillow

Clearly Rass is using some different baseline or sampling technique than the other pollsters. Suppose we were to throw out ever other pollster on this topic. Look at the Rass trend. The previous poll was 42/34, and this post-SCOTUS one was 37/39. Five percent is significant to be sure, but its certainly not a huge shift. If that's all the effect that this ruling has then I think Judge Sotomayor's roughest patch is over.

As for the idea that the media has avoided covering her stance on this issue, that's not the impression I got. This seems to be the only specific case (out of the 3000 she heard on the appeals court) the media even talked about.

Furthermore, the framing of the issue was such that it became not Sotomayor and her fellow judges making a difficult decision in the face of an uncertain law, but that a single "crazy liberal latina" judge was legislating from the bench in an effort to hurt good upstanding white men.

Judging is hard, and it gets harder the higher up you go. I'll take Sotomayor's SCOTUS overturn rate of 1 in 1000 (with a conservative SCOTUS, mind you) any day.

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Stillow:

@sjt22

I am with you that she should be confirmed, its obama's choice. My whole point is that its very very likely she had a decline in approval based on just that one case. I watch oreilly nearly every night and watch olberman nearly every night and I do not call any kind of intense analysis of this case....and oreilly has the #11 watched show on cable news and olberman is the top guy at msnbc these days....i only pay attention to cnn a little so maybe they covered it. but when that decision was thrown into eveyrone face ad she was on the oppositte side as a "vast" majoiryt of people, can't you aknowledge that would have some downward affect on her approval? 65+ on the polls I have seen disagreed with her, that is no tiny margin, that is a mega landslide against her on this case. And people may view that on how she might rule on similar cases.........

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Stephen_W:

Well, given that the previous Raz poll on Sotomayor was also an outlier, the point is moot on this new poll. As for your equating 60% of Americans siding with the firefighters being the reason for a 30 point shift in sentiment for her nomination, it's just not logical. Sure, the case made headlines for a couple of days, but I've never got an impression that this case represented some watershed moment in American history, and that being on the wrong side of a 5-4 decision would cause people to just out and out choose to not confirm her. Perhaps for the 2.5m people who watch Fox News religiously (who are mostly Republican anyways), but there's just no evidence that there has been this kind of fundamental shift in American sentiment for her nomination.

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LordMike:

This is a very good result, considering that Rasmussen only polls Repulbicans... So, 37% of Republicans support her... fantastic!

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conspiracy:

I kinda agree agree with Stillow's reasoning for a drop in support but not to this degree. Of course she started from a lower baseline in Rasmussen so obviously the small change would turn the numbers. The same drop in say ABC would still leave you with 57-30 approve. No problem.

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Niall:

> This is a very good result, considering that
> Rasmussen only polls Repulbicans...

HILARIOUS! If "Rasmussen only polls Republicans," how do you explain his presidential tracking polls since before the election? Note that Rasmussen was #1 in accuracy in predicting the election results based on his pre-election polls.

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LordMike:

"HILARIOUS! If "Rasmussen only polls Republicans," how do you explain his presidential tracking polls since before the election? Note that Rasmussen was #1 in accuracy in predicting the election results based on his pre-election polls."

Rasmussen got Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida all wrong last year... They made up for it somewhere else for their national numbers, which were close, but not the best. The Daily Kos poll did better than Rasmussen did last year. Their opinion polling has significant right wing house effect... Their likely voter model seems to exclude anyone who's a democrat....

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bawlexus91:

"This is a very good result, considering that Rasmussen only polls Repulbicans... So, 37% of Republicans support her... fantastic!"

I LOVE all of the liberal nuts who like to pretend that because Rasmussen polls don't always reflect what they'd like to see, well then he's just a "HACK."

Feeling this way requires one to IGNORE FACTS, which Obama supporters have no problem with doing. For all of you who like to hate on Rasmussen's results, please recall that he was the most accurate predictor of the 2008 election (52-47%). Wasn't the actual result 52-46%? Didn't Gallup (the chosen poll for liberals) predict an obama victory of 9-11 points?? And even if that wasn't there final prediction, they often showed WILD, crazy leads for Obama of 11,12, and 13 points, while Rasmussen stayed closer to reality, with 4, 5, 6, 7 point leads.

And Obama lovers want to pretend that Rasmussen sucks? Let me ask, if Rasmussen sucks, yet was so dead-on with his 08 election results, then what does that make Gallup?

Oh, and LORDMIKE, please, if you could, post DailyKos's final election prediction numbers, with a source. I don't believe you when you say they were more accurate than Rasmussen. Oh, and the fact that you label Rasmussen as right-wing, in the same sentence as talking about a Dailykos poll, is a lot like the pot calling the kettle black.

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sjt22:

I LOVE all of the liberal nuts who like to pretend that because Rasmussen polls don't always reflect what they'd like to see, well then he's just a "HACK."

Ya because republicans have NEVER questioned the accuracy or bias of any pollster who goes against their chosen viewpoint.

I think Rass is a good pollster, and I'm not sure where this idea that he only polls Republican comes from (though he does have a pro-Republican house effect).

However he's not perfect, just as no pollster is perfect. Looking at his Sotomayor trend and looking at everyone else's trend, there is clearly something different about the setup they are using.

Of course, with questions like this its not really possible to know who is right and who is wrong. There won't be an election for Sotomayor. She'll either be confirmed by the Senate or not.

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