Pollster.com

Our dream may yet come true. I've written several blogs calling for the demise of the GOP. The Tea Party just may be the ticket. It's a natural fit for: the angry-uneducated, bigots of a thousand varieties, every conspiracy-theorist you can imagine, bible-thumpers, and the insane.
It's going to be slim pickings for the GOP when they lose these core elements.

And you know they are uneducated how? KMore liberal hyperbole and stupidity. And shocking, its from LA! LOL!

I still think the split in the Dem party is much more likely. Reps, generally, have the same principles and ideals as a party. The Dems have much more of a disparate group of constituents. From more moderates, to social conservatives, to environ nuts, to anti-war loons to minorities.

Obama has to deal with all those groups, each with their different wants and needs. He is already feeling flack from the gay crowd for not doing enough and now he has the anti-way far left on his back.

All the reps need to do is field candidates that espouse Republican ideals: small government, lower taxes, and social mores.

Correct. The split in the Dem party ius much more amplified than the split in the GOP. esepcially lately because it finally looks like the GOP got the message fro mthe people. They are starting to act and talk like fiscal conservatives again. Ya know, that little thing that got them elected to begin with.

If they stay on course, they may just win back my vote and the votes of other fiscal conservatives like myself.

Sorry for my spelling errors. That should be "More" and "anti-war".

FM:
The repubs need more the candidates that espouse the ideals they need candidates that live and vote and legislate from those ideals. Ask Stillow about how that worked out for GWB's term.

The Dems already split, thus the Green Party in many areas. The thing is other than local level politics they have seen and learned where it gets them to split the vote. Heck in MN TPaw only got 42% of the vote and won because of it.

anti-war pro-single-payer liberal right here that will pretty much vote for Obama no matter what.

The Dems can be pretty bad sometimes. But after Republican rule for most of the last 10 years, I know it could be a lot worse.

Anti war? Which war? All war? The iraq or afgahn war? Just looking for clarification on what anti war means.

Not all wars. I'm anti-stupid war. Namely Iraq and Afghanstian since the failed elections. There is no credible partner in Afghanistan right now so it is a stupid war.

Tad,

I agree they need more candidates, thats what the conservative party and tea party movements are all about and why Dede Scazzafava went down in NY.

If the party will not run candidates that espouse those ideas, these parties will until the GOP leadership gets the point.

OL,

You may vote for Obama not matter what but there are many in the Dem party (just like the Rep party) who are not Obamatrons and will think their minds and vote with their feet (or lackthereof) on election day.

With the Dems moving left as a whole and leaving byhind the moderates and conservatives, you may very well see two parties emerge.

Perhaps what we need is a conservtive party, a liberal party and a republicrat party.

Liberals are not stupid enough to support a 3rd party after what happened in 2000 with Nader, who is reviled amongst most liberals. Gore may not have been perfect, but he certainly was astronomically better than George Bush. The vast majority of liberal bloggers support the Democratic party whether it be Think Progress or Americablog. You would never see in the liberal community what happened to Scossofava and RedState.com. We are smarter than that.

So this idea that the Democratic party will split is a pipe dream by conservatives. And considering what happened with Scossofava in the New York special election it is much more likely the GOP will split

Liberals are not stupid enough to support a 3rd party after what happened in 2000 with Nader, who is reviled amongst most liberals. Gore may not have been perfect, but he certainly was astronomically better than George Bush. The vast majority of liberal bloggers support the Democratic party whether it be Think Progress or Americablog. You would never see in the liberal community what happened to Scossofava and RedState.com. We are smarter than that.

So this idea that the Democratic party will split is a pipe dream by conservatives. And considering what happened with Scossofava in the New York special election it is much more likely the GOP will split

"With the Dems moving left as a whole and leaving byhind the moderates and conservatives,"

Stillow, I'd like you to explain to me what Obama is doing that is moving him leftward from where he was during the campaign. He basically just did more of what Bush started with the bailouts and stimuli to halt the slide in the economy. You may recall a 6 month democratic primary process where much of the argument was on how to reform health care. They always said they would tax the rich to help pay for it.

If anything, liberals should be the ones most upset at him. He's not getting out of Iraq quickly, he's increasing troops in Afghanistan, he hasn't taken a stand for gay rights, his health care reform is far less ambitious than they'd like, etc...

If you ask me, he's tried to take a middle road on everything so far and as a result he pleases no one.

OL,

No third party will arise against either party, not on the national level anyways. So the risk is really that they do not show up to vote for the dem candidate, not that they vote for someone else. This is what happened on the rep side.

Aaron, i don't think anyone believes that Obama is middle of the road on anything. Health care, stimulus/economy, environment. All far left.

As much as I think a third Party is needed to break the stranglehold of the two party system, I just don't think it will happen. There could be a break from both sides, but I think the one with more potential would be from the right. But, I do not see it happening anytime soon, unfortunately. As Obama keeps moving left, people will come back to the GOP as they finally get back to being a fiscal conservative party now that GWB is finally gone.

Obamalove,
Weren't you just supporting Obama's move to send more troops the other day? Kinda goes against your being against a "anti-stupid war".

@FM

I consider a congressional election a national election.

Its very easy for the Dem party to swing back left eating both the Rep and Tea party if it were to exist. I would expect the Rep part to die out as the Tea party is so vogue.

"Health care, stimulus/economy, environment. All far left."

Really? Because the far left positions on these would be a single payer health care system, a direct federal jobs program, and forced reductions in emissions across the board. Obama has done none of that, nor even considered it.

And please don't say that even those "far left" positions approach socialism. Socialism means that the state owns the means of production and redistributes wealth so that there the extremes between rich and poor are decreased.

People today have almost no grounding in political theory, so when they throw around terms like "far left" and "socialist" they don't even know what they're talking about.

Obama has a disease that psychologists call cognitive dissonance. A fixation on radical left revolutionary ideology trumps reason and rationalization of reality. In my view Obama is smart enough to understand his policies are a wrecking ball to America, our values, freedoms, economy, and jobs. The radical left community organizer does not know how to be President. Furthermore he does not understand the USA is an exceptional country that has done more for the oppressed, the starving, poverty, than any country in history. He does not agree the USA is an exceptional country until after he was elected. The past 233 years are of course held in contempt and disdain by this narcissistic president. Buyer remorse from Independents and middle America .... yep.

Aaron, come on man. Obama wants single payer and he understands the way to get to it is thru a public option. he's on tape for crying out loud admitting it will take time todo it. He wants MASSIVE tax increases thru this bogus cap & tradelegislation which does ntohing but pander to the kooky left fringe. Putting the g'ment in control of several aspects of your life, from stuff you need to do in your own yhome, to controlling your beavior by way of higher taxes on certain behavior he feels is not appropriate. His stimulus has done nothing but nearly a trillion to our debt....all it was was a giveaway to big labor and recepients of g'ment contracts. He supports a massive new entitlement called healthcare paid for by productive americans.

The guy is far left, had Bush not led us into a massive recession, he would not have won the election. But in recessions, the party in power will always lose.

Stillow, you beat me to it. Anyone who doesn't think he is far left has ideological blinders on. National Journal has him with the most liberal voting record in the senate. Furthermore, its only been one year and look at the damage this guy has done already. Wait a few more years and you can see him really move to the left, especially if re-elected (God forbid!)

OL,
How is a congressional election a national election, only roughly 650,000 are allowed to vote in it?

FM:

People vote based on national issues in congressional elections.

By your definition, the only national election is the Presidential election.

Anyhow, there will probably be more Doug Hoffmans, which willl make it harder for you guys to win back Congress.

obamalover

Here there been a normal primary process, Hoffman would have beaten scazzy...and would have been the GOP nominee and would have won. Look at local news coverage and you will find many republicans there voted for Scazzy and Owens as an act of protest against the GOP for nominating a liberal candidate. Every analyst I have seen since the election agrees, the GOP will do it snromal nomintion process for 2010 and the seat will go back to the GOP. If you add scazzy and Hoffman togehter, they beat Owens. Take away the protest voters and it won't be close in 2010.

The lack of a primary for the party to do it snormal process for choosing a candidate threw a pie in the GOP's face. Won't happen again.

@Stillow

Two problems with your analysis:

1. Owens got 49% of the vote. For Hoffman to win next year he would have to get 100% of the Socazza vote, which seems like a tall order.

2. After the 2010 census the Dems will gerrymander the district and make it impossible for the GOP to win in 2012. Ha!

3. This district always votes Republican, so what you say makes some sense. However, even having teabaggers win GOP primaries like Rubio over Christ will make it hard for you guys to win in moderate states like Florida. I really don't like Ben Nelson, but I'm smart enough to know if we nominated a liberal in Nebraska he would certainly lose. Conservatives are not that smart, so they are going to nominate people like Rubio in Florida and Chuck DeVore in California.

Your analysis is completely off. First, you assume that the same people who voted this year will vote next year.

Second, the redistricting won't be effective until 2013 most likely, after the 2012 elections. Also, 36 states complete redistricting by their state legislatures. 5 states: NJ, Hawaii, AZ, Idaho, and Wash have a bipartisan commission handle the redistricting to make it "fair". Most states have removed any competition from their districts already: Maryland, NY and California are the biggest. Changes there couldn't be any more uncompetitive.

Check out CQ politics congressional map.

As of now, I predict that the Dems will lose 25 seats in the house giving them a 227-208 advantage after 2010 with more to come in 2012.

@FM

I find it hard to believe that the demographic makeup of the likely voters would change that much, and even if it did whose to say it wouldn't change in the Dems favor (as off-season elections tend to be dominated by conservative voters).

Anyhow - 2012 or 2014 - IF Owens loses, and that is a big if, Republicans won't be holding that seat for much longer as Dems in the New York legislature are determined to gerrymander that district. Ha!

And this is the worst time to predict how many seats the Dems will lose: Unemployment rate is near it's bottom and most economists expect the unemployment rate to be better by the summer of next year, and the healthcare bill hasn't passed yet.

Yeah, but NY will likely have 2 less seats so the district may not even exist. Texas will probably gain 3 along with much of the south. The only traditional blue state to gain in California.

Unemployment has bottomed only because there is no one left to fire. Companies are as lean as they are going to get. Problem will be the hiring.

How many small businesses are going to hire when they see an impending tax hike next year?

@FM

Where are you getting these very specific numbers from considering the 2010 census hasn't happened yet?

As to your other point, the taxes on individual income over 250,000 will go up. Small business profit won't be taxed anymore. Furthermore, the jobs bill that is being proposed will have tax incentives for new hirings. So your point is not valid.

obamalover

Data I have read show about 15 - 20 percent of Owens votes were protest votes who would normally vote republican when there is a real rpeublican to vote for.

What economists are you reading? Half of them agree unemployment will trickle up next year...it will really depend on this holday shopping season. If its poor we will have a lot of store closings and layoffs i nthe fist half of next year. I hope I am wrong, but I think we are going to hit 11 percent.

And if the Dems are successful i npassing HCR, it will actually hurt them in 2010 and 2012. Its a liberal myth that low polling for health care reform is because the Dems are not liberal enough. If it passes, I thin kthe GOP can actually pick up 40+ seats in the House and at least 6 seats i nthe Senate.

obamalover

Most small businesses are SCorps...which means they pay tax at the perosnal incoem tax rate. If you raise taxes o nthso eearning 250kand above, that affects millions of small business owners...taking money away fro mthere business.

@Stillow

If the individual is making over 250,000 in annual income off their small business then they are doing pretty well for themselves. Moreover, their employees wages are tax deductible, and like I said there will probably a tax incentive for business who hire.
http://www.hrblock.com/tax_business_services/resources/article_bus_ded.html

Furthermore,regarding unemployment here:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2009-11-23-econ-jobs-survey_N.htm

I will read your aticles when I am not sitting at a red light later on. Small business owners are key to our econmy, you start taxing them more, it will effect the businesses they own.

Just looking at the link though, I am not sure how much stock I can put into an article by usa today.

FM that's pretty rich. Noone left to fire? There is a natural 24,000 jobs needed each month for new workers entering employment from youth or immigration. We lost 11,000 last month.

I'm amused at the number of people in this poll saying that the Democrats and Republicans are alike.

People like to think they are so insightful when they say the two parties are the same, but if those know-nothing-know-it-alls actually looked at the roll call votes on major pieces of legislation they would see that most of those votes are down party lines.