Pollster.com

Articles and Analysis

 

VA: 2009 Gov (DailyKos-6/1-3)


DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
6/1-3/09; 600 likley voters, 4% margin of error
400 likely Democratic primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Virginia

Favorable / Unfavorable
Moran (D): 37 / 38
McAuliffe (D): 37 / 43
Deeds (D): 41 / 39
McDonnell (R): 56 / 34
Obama: 55 / 42 (chart)

2009 Governor - Democratic Primary
Deeds 30, Moran 27, McAuliffe 26 (chart)
Northern Virginia: Moran 42, McAuliffe 28, Deeds 22

2009 Governor - General Election
McDonnell 43, Moran 35 (chart)
McDonnell 46, McAuliffe 33 (chart)
McDonnell 46, Deeds 34 (chart)

(source)

 

Comments
conspiracy:

McAuliffe is done. All the undecideds are breaking for Deeds and a lesser extent to Moran.

____________________

Stillow:

I'm not sure it matters who wins the Dem primary, they me be a sacrificial lamb this time aorund. McDonell has had a healthy lead over any of the Dems in every poll for a long time now. And by far he has the best approval/disapporval spread in the list above. Even better than President Obama. With that size gap and the fact McDonnel has led in every poll for over a month now, I don't see how any of the Dems can catch up at this point barring a major incident.

____________________

conspiracy:

McDonnell can't get much higher than the mid-40s despite the fact all three Dems have been training fire on each other. Once a nominee emerges then you can bet that McDonnell's favorables will come down.

____________________

Stillow:

Ya, that is a good point, but I also don't think McDonnel has really started an aggressive campign either...he is watching the Dems beat eachother up....I think the key for me is the approval and disapproval....Mcdonnel has a lot of room for error there...the Dems are not so lucky. I actually think Mcdonnel wins this race fairly easily.....along with Christie winning a fairly tight race in NJ.

The NY-20 speical election coming up will also be fun to watch in hwat is almsot a evenly split district, it will be intresting to see if a trend develops on how the voters are feeling out there.

____________________

conspiracy:

It all depends if the eventual winner can consolidate the support of the losing candidates. I think Deeds can better do that considering the extent Moran and McAuliffe have beat each other up. I think all three races you mentioned will end up super tight, particularly NY-23.

____________________



Post a comment




Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR