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VA: 2009 Gov (SurveyUSA-6/5-7)


SurveyUSA
6/5-7/09; 1,685 registered voters, 2.4% margin of error
535 likely Democratic primary voters, 4.3% margin of error
Mode: IVR

Virginia

2009 Governor - Democratic Primary
Deeds 42, McAuliffe 30, Moran 21 (chart)

2009 Governor - General Election
McDonnell 47, Deeds 43 (chart)
McDonnell 48, McAuliffe 41 (chart)
McDonnell 49, Moran 38 (chart)

 

Comments
Garfield:

Doesn't the fact that there is a closely contested Democratic primary make the general election poll meaningless? I suspect the losing candidates' voters will probably mostly vote with their party in the general, but not admit to it now. I wonder if there is a study of this. It seems like the Obama/Clinton polls behaved that way after McCain won the nomination.

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conspiracy:

Useful in that they clearly show that Deeds is the strongest possible Dem nominee. But, yes, you would expect there to be some kind of post-primary bounce.

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Well, this is the beginning of what should be a very revealing few months for Virginia politics...and potentially a bellweather for 2010. These polls have been all over the map, now it's game time.

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My blog is covering this race today. Visit olddominionprogressive.blogspot.com/ for live results. Let's see if the polls are right.

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Garfield:
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