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VA: McDonnell 51 Deeds 42 (Rasmussen 9/29)


Rasmussen
9/29/09; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: IVR
(Rasmussen release)

Virginia

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 52 / 48 (chart)
Gov. Kaine: 59 / 40 (chart)

2009 Governor
McDonnell 51%, Deeds 42% (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
McDonnell: 44 / 37
Deeds: 46 / 45

In terms of how you will vote this November, how important is the content of McDonnell's thesis?
51% Very/Somewhat, 40% Not very/Not at all

Does a Mark Warner endorsement of Creigh Deeds make you more likely or less likely to vote for Deeds?
33% More likely, 30% Less likely, 34% No impact

Does former Democratic governor Doug Wilder's decision to remain neutral in the 2009 Virginia governor's race make you more likely or less likely to vote for Creigh Deeds?
6% More likely, 10% Less likely, 80% No impact

 

Comments
IdahoMulato:

@Stillow

Raciism is usually borne out of fear, xenophobia and nativism. You said somewhere that LA is considered one of the most conservative deep south state and yet they voted for an Indian.

For what I know, racism is more directed at blacks than Asians (except maybe those from muslim countries). Check the facts.

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RaleighNC:

Deeds' tax "snafu" is biting hard.

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Stillow:

That may be one of the stupidest comments ever posted here.................

Racism exists everywhere and has roots in al lraces. For you to claim only blacks are victims of racism makes you look beyond stupid.

All I hear from you libs on this site is how white conservatives, espeically those i nthe south hate all miniorites. They are racist bigots, blah blah. Yet I Pointed out LA elected Jindal as there governor...last I chcecked Jindal is not a white male.

Its statements like this that prove you libs are the true racists in this country. You judge everyone first on race, then everything else. When you see someone you see them as black, or white, or hispanic, etc....when I look at someone I see a person probably like me, who pretty much just wants to be left alone and given the opportunity to provide for there families.

Sheeesh, so you libs think racism only exists towards blacks.....what a bunch of ignorant fools you are. white southerns are racist, but they happen to love Indians.........you guys are so absurd its hard to even converse with you on htis issue.

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Field Marshal:

Stillow,

I agree with you. I've been saying that for years. While there is still a small percentage of white that have deeply rooted racism, i think a much larger percentage of the black population is racist.

Secondly, a lot of the racism charges come from people who have zero intellectual capacity and use it as an argument when they have no alternatives.

Lastly, the liberals have been using racism charges (along with the south stigma) for years in an effort to garner more of the minority vote. In the process, they now receive only 38% of the white vote since they have alienated them to the extent they have.

Its very sad but tells a lot of the person who uses the racism charge as a counter argument.

____________________

Stillow:

@Field Marshal:

How do you even take seriously someone who thinks conservatives are racist and that racism only exists towards blacks? It really is getting harder and harder to have a debate with some of these libs because they take the discussion into a realm of pure insanity.

____________________

John:

Sorry to be slightly pedantic but Obama won (at least according to the exit polls) 43% of the white vote in the last election. If he had only won 38% he would have probably lost.

____________________

Chris_From_VA:

Deeds should fire his campaign management staff or reign in their people at WaPo. Had they saved the thesis until late October, it could have been a game changer; however, people have had the opportunity to research the thesis and Mr. McDonnell's record and it is obvious that he is not anti-woman and does not see them as detriments to society.
Governor McDonnell will be a great leader for Virginians and a model for other candidates throughout the country.
Bob McDonnell 2009!

____________________

tjampel:

7 comments and 6 words about the poll.

Perhaps it's a good idea to talk about polls? As in....this one? Well, for what it's worth, my take.

The house effect for Ras this cycle has been a bit larger than for 2008. Looks like 2-3 points to me on a consistent basis. Not to say they're wrong; just that their samples skew this far right of the avg. of other pollsters. This has been especially true in its polling regarding Obama's job approval. Ras has been under 50% for a while; other pollsters have pretty consistently been a few points above that.

This poll, if you remove house effect, yields a 6-7 point lead for McDonnell, which feels about right given the other polling. I discount any poll (sorry SUSA) who's respondents voted +7 for McCain, in a state where Obama was +3. Subtract 10 from that poll and we're back in that +4 to + 7 range.

The thesis has hurt McDonnell but he's proved to be an excellent campaigner, extremely well-spoken and disciplined. He's focused on running a generally positive campaign and on finding ways to solve VA's problems rather than presenting an ideologically charged agenda. Deeds campaign, on the other hand, hasn't exactly caught fire, and his call for taxes, even if they're necessary isn't the message anyone wants to hear in this kind of economy.

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Stillow:

@tjampel

Ras is a daily tracker for approval, so it really cannot be compared to other pollsters who are not daily trackers. rass has been bouncing between 48-50 for a while now and gallup's tracker betwen 50-52 for about the same time period. gallup is polling registered voters while Ras is doing likely voters. The GOP tends to do better in likely voter polling so I think Rass's #'s and Gallup's numbers are about right. If you average the two out he's at 50 which some other pollsters have him around as well...and if you include the MOE's many pollsters are within range of 50.

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JMSTiger:

McConnell's support started to get wobbly after the thesis deal, but he appears to be stabilizing, thanks in part (as has been mentioned) to Deeds terrible answers on taxes. McDonnell is clearly ahead and probably will win as long as there are no terrible mistakes on his part. I do expect this race to narrow at the end, but McDonnell will probably still win about 51%-48%.

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John:

Stillow, I would agree that Rasmussen's approval numbers are pretty steady and given that it is LVs then reasonably enough (if a couple of points lower than than the average), the problem is Rasmussen's disapproval numbers have been consistently nearly ten points higher than the average (if you filter out rasmussen and zogby internet).

30% of voters are less likely to vote for Deed due to Warner's endorsement?! He won in 2008 with 65% of the vote. I would love to see the breakdown of who those 30% are.

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