9/14-17/09; 1,003 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Post: story, blog post, results)
McDonnell 51%, Deeds 47% (chart)
Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Kaine: 59 / 38 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 53 / 47 (chart)
Those Obama numbers look really good for Virginia. Hmmm... maybe the sky isn't falling.
Posted on September 20, 2009 12:45 PM
I'm kinda shocked at Obama's latest numbers too.
Yet it doesn't look like this sample is skewed, given their responses on a range of issues, especially with 42% seeing Deeds as too liberal. Deeds is a moderate, actually.
I think there' room for Deeds to improve on his numbers a bit in the home part of the state, and in his hometown of Richmond (and probably Hampton Roads as well) by promoting himself as a gun-loving (NRA supported) tough on illegals, etc. pro-women, pro-choice pragmatic moderate, while, at the same time, continuing to push the thesis as the lynchpin in the "Deeds is a closet fundie" meme in NOVA; it's working, especially with women independents! It can work in Richmond too.
His numbers have come up rapidly in NOVA and they're not yet at the level he needs to win; he needs to be up over 20%, and definitely needs to keep the margin below 20% in the South and West.
He's also going to need to get people "fired up and ready to go"... to the polls, although we're not yet at the point where GOTV appears to be determinative. We need to see Deeds ahead in a poll or two first. But it's trending that way based on this and Ras (which I thought to be an outlier of sorts) at first.
If it gets closer it will be very interesting to see if the powerhouse (mostly volunteer) org that Obama built has any legs, especially in urban minority areas. I wonder how pollsters are factoring this in for this year's cycle.
Posted on September 20, 2009 9:05 PM
Obama won VA 52.63% to 46.33%, a margin of +6.30.
These polls numbers come very close to his win from 2008.
Posted on September 21, 2009 3:30 AM
Is there any evidence yet that Republicans have updated their GOTV system enough to match what Obama and the Democrats created in 2008? So far in basically every special election that's counted since Nov. '08, the Democrats have won. If Reps think they can get Teabaggers to GOTV for the party as a whole, they're gravely mistaken.
Posted on September 21, 2009 1:06 PM
the gop cant win anything anymore,because they cant get minority voters,the hispanics are quitting the gop in record numbers,because the word on the political scene is the gop wants to try in pass a law that would prohibit citizens who was not born in this country from voting for the presidentof the united states,the gop has just ended their chances of winning anything because the gop has let these right-wing people and fox news take control of their party
Posted on September 21, 2009 5:24 PM
Posted on September 21, 2009 5:25 PM
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