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VA: McDonnell 53 Deeds 44 (Post 10/4-7)


Washington Post
10/4-7/09; 1,001 likely voters, +/- 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Post: story, results, cross-tabs)

Virginia

2009 Governor
McDonnell 53%, Deeds 44% (chart)
(Last poll, 9/17: McDonnell 51%, Deeds 47%)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Kaine: 60 / 37 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 53 / 46 (chart)

Party Identification
Democrat 31%, Republican 30%, Independent 36%
(Last poll, 9/17: Democrat 32%, Republican 29%, Independent 34%)

 

Comments
Stillow:

Its starting to get away from Deeds. Any damage from the thesis has evaporated and Deed's tax stumble probably put the fork in his campaign.

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Unitas:

Deeds looks pretty toasty. Obama has a 53% approval rating and McDonnell is still beating him by 9 points. Looks like us progressives are gonna have to put our hopes on Gov. Corzine.

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Xenobion:

All politics are local. I largely think Gov races do not reflect really anything nationally unless there is really some sort of debate that forces that state into the national spotlight. There is no party unification like there used to be to trend this as a movement, I mean, Mitt Romney was the Gov. of Mass for heaven's sake. House first and to a lesser extent Senate is the true barometer.

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tjampel:

Deeds has run a lackluster campaign at best. McDonnell has made some pretty tasty lemonade from all the lemons he's been getting; kudos to him. As a Dem who would never vote for someone like McDonnell, I must say that he's handled his campaign with poise and confidence. He's done a great job acting like a Governor, just as Obama did a far better job than McCain in sounding Presidential, whether or not you agree with his ideas.

Lastly, I don't think McDonnell will turn out to be another Terry Sanford (politically, that is) with good hair, and I really don't think that he's the "Manchurian candidate" for the "values voters" set. He may have been at one time but I think he's moderated his views somewhat over time.

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melvin:

Have you noticed how the gop is attacking black people day after day,am talking about Acorn and others like this Congressman,because the gop decided years ago were not going to get black votes,but have you also noticed how the gop is not attacking the latino cummunity because like i said before the gop is terriffied of losing the latino vote in a big way,for instance like today the sheriff in Arizonia was put in his place by the Whitehouse,but you didnot hear one thing from the gop today about this issue,because the gop has told the rightwing media and the rightwing politicans to not disuss issues on immigration or anything negative about latinos,have you all noticed this?if this sheriff would have lost his duties concerning anythingelse the gop would have ripped the Whitehouse apart.,are the democrats blind,can they see how scared the gop is to discuss anything concerning the latino cummunity,this is a gold mine for the Democrats,the Democrats can pass immigration reform very easily if they choose to,because the gop is not going to fight it,they want the Democrats to think their going too,but believe me they wont,because the gop is scared to death,the gop cant afford to have all those rightwingers going nuts on latinos like they did, going nuts on this healthcare reform,because the gop knows the latinos would vote democratic 95% just like the black people are doing,and that would be the end of the Republican party as we know it,because the gop would have to get 70% of the white vote and every election to compete with the Democrats...so why havnt the Democrats noticed this,it has been a code of silence from the gop concerning the latino cummunity.you remember last month when Joe w Wilson blamed a Acorn, and the leftwing for trying to destroy him,but did you also notice Joe Wilson didnt even mention any latino organization,and was it illegal immigration that he went nuts on,because the gop told Joe Wilson too cool it,dont say anything negative about latinos in the media ever again,the gop has told every politican on the right to do the same,its so obvious the gop is scared to death to talk about anything reguarding the latinos,but its to bad the Democrats dont see this big opportunity to destroy them with.Hey Democrats the gop wont fight you on anything concerning the hispanics,cant you guys figure that out,they are bluffing you Democrats,and you Democrats are falling for it bigtime.

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Unitas:

Xenobion - I think you are right on this and that the national media comically inflates the importance of these two races but inflate it they do and it would be good for Obama to win one. As for Deeds, he has a run lackluster campaign so far. He failed to capitalize on McDonnell's thesis and seems headed to loss. The fact that Obama has a positive approval rating in VA just means that he does not seem to be a drag on Deeds.

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Stillow:

melvin

Where are you left wing racsits coming from??

This site is attracing more and more left wing racists lately. Can you guys please stay over on Kos where this kind of hate talk is more accepted....let's leave the racist crap off pollster please. If you want to claim all republicans are racist, hate blacks, blah blah, fine, but do it on Kos or soemthing....

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Stillow:

Unitas

Depends on the poll...some other recent pollsters have Obama at even or a little negative in approval.

But I think we all agree that deeds is probably a gonner, barring some kind of October surprise....

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RaleighNC:

Nice try, Melvin. Nice try.

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Aaron_in_TX:

McDonnell was never hurt much by the thesis. There was a short time Deeds got within 5 points, but it was more of a drop in support for McDonnell, not an increase for Deeds. The pollster chart shows a pretty consistent 6-10 point lead for McDonnell throughout the whole campaign. The only polls that ever showed Deeds ahead were 2 after his primary win.

With this kind of showing, VA dems might have been better off choosing the more progressive candidate over Deeds, whose moderation was supposed to help. At least then they could have gotten a more accurate read on the stregnth of the democratic base in the state.

My understanding is that Virginia likes to switch parties fairly regularly when electing governors, so this may be a normal part of the cycle.


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Cyril Washbrook:

Deeds has run a poor campaign. Any strategist worth their salt (admittedly, the Democratic Party has its fair share of strategists who aren't worth that much) will tell you that it's not enough just to attack your opponent relentlessly. There has to be some wider narrative, and it needs to appeal to the whole brain of the voter; in other words, there need to be negative and positive components that complement each other and fit into a neat narrative jigsaw.

That is not in evidence in Deeds' campaign: it's been a mixture of haphazard attacks on the thesis and some shoddy attempts to say that Deeds would be a good governor. That's not a narrative.

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