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VA: Obama 48, McCain 46 (PPP-9/13-14)

Topics: PHome

Public Policy Polling (D)
9/13-14/08; 1,090 LV, 3%
Mode: IVR

Virginia
Obama 48, McCain 46
(August: Obama 47, McCain 45)

Sen: Warner (D) 57, Gilmore (33)

 

Comments
OGLiberal:

After seeing so many polls consistently showing this thing basically tied in this state, I think the conclusion we have to come to re: Virginia is a) it's now clearly an official swing state, b) it's a tossup, and c) it'll probably turn blue by the next presidential election.

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AmericaFirst:

It is looking more and more like Obama should forget about OH and focus on VA.

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1magine:

VA will come down to GOTV. If anything like the primaries, BO is under-polling by 3-5% b/c new and especially new, young, black voters are nearly systematically eliminated from all LV models.

I guess we wait and see on 11/4. Unless debates move polls 3-5%.

But even if they do JM and RNC has indicated a clear willingness to go as negative as they can go short of re-funding the KKK. So any lead heading into late October - early Nov. will be met with a tidal wave of the nastiest, dirtiest, air and internet ads and rumors that will cast us into darkness and draw the election close enough to ensure that any RNC voting irregularties are overlooked as 'sour grapes.'

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Shannon,Dallas,Texas:

This is very bad news for McCain. I win here by Obama could put this thing out of reach. Palin's star has dimmed and it's unlikely she can win him any new voters because of the scandals surrounding her. I think it's safe to say that McCain's convention bounce is gone.

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freedomreigns:

Senatorial election isn't close and never has been.

Presidential race is REALLY close. This could be the closest state this year. With OH and FL looking more and more red, this is the big win democrats need. If Obama wins VA then McCain HAS to win Michigan or Penn, or Minn.

HAS to.

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boskop:

virginia doesnt seem to have anything new to offer the obama camp. sorry.

same diff.

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IndependentThinker:

Just released
Gallup Daily: Obama 47%, McCain 45%
The tide is turning
The so-called McPa"lies"n bounce has gone ...

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Varon:

To those saying that Obama should give up on Ohio or some other state to focus on Virginia, I couldn’t disagree more.

Remember Clinton vs Bush 41. Clinton gave more speeches in more states than Bush. Bush couldn’t keep up the ground game.

McCain is 72 and they don’t trust Palin out on the stump without a very controlled environment. She had to take a week off to prepare for one interview. The McCain camp would love this to be fought over a small number of swing states where they can concentrate their resources.

Obama has always wanted the big map. He beat Hillary in the states that she wasn’t paying attention to. If on Election Day there are ten states in play, Obama has the GOTV machine to win. McCain insiders admit they don’t.

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jamesia:

@ Varon:

Good points. Also, at some point the media will make a story about the McCain campaign's refusal of media interaction with Palin. That will force Palin to do some kind of press conference, or at least take questions. The only thing that could have saved them from that is if their claims to sexism stuck.

Virginia seems like it's in Obama's grasp. It's surprising that even after the Palin pick, West Virginia is beginning to move into toss-up territory.

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RaleighNC:

Within margin of error gives little comfort to either candidate. As good as Obama's ground game is there I'm surprised it's not more of a lead. If he wins VA, McCain will definitely need to win one of the other "big 4" : PA, MI, MN, WI

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Snowspinner:

RaleighNC - I think you misunderstand how ground game works. The appeal of a ground game is that it gets you the voters that don't make it through a likely voter scheme - it's about going and getting your soft support and unlikely voters out.

Ground game, in other words, is what swings a state away from what the polls say. Hence the line from a Nevada GOP organizer that as long as Obama leads by less than three, they think they can win the state.

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JFactor:

Again good news for Obama. Virginia is definately a swing state and even more even than Ohio. That suprises me a little bit but I guess the demographic shift in Virginia has been greater than I thought.
________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

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Whitetower:

Yet another poll that oversamples women: 55% for this PPP poll.

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marctx:

Great progress for Obama over his August lead in this poll.

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ronnie:

mccain will lose the election if he doesn't carry this state.....simple as that....if obama wins virginia, he would only need to carry iowa (which he leads comfortably) and all the states kerry won in 2004 to win....we'll see what happens.

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carl29:

Remember that I'm only leaving the facts on the table. Don't take it personal.

The August poll was more Democratic than this one. In August the sample consisted in 40% Democrats vs. 34% Republican, a 6% party ID gap in favor of the Dems.

This September poll has a less Democratic sample, 38% Democrats vs. 36% Republicans, a 2% party ID gap in favor of the Dems.

Now, my question is: Is it irrelevant to the issue that Obama has maintain the same 2% lead, despite that he lost 4% advantage in party preference since the last poll?

*This is just food for thougth in order to advance a respectful and intelligent conversation, don't mind spirited as well, as far as it stays respectful.

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Paul:

Comparison of PPP poll demographics to 2004 Virginia exit poll shows this PPP poll overall has a built in small bias towards McCain. Gender and race are very slightly biased to Obama (1% difference from exit poll). However, elderly (65+) in this PPP poll is weighted 7% more than exit poll and young voters (under 30) are weighted 2& less than exit poll. Conclusion: this 2 point Obama advantage is probably more like a 3 point advantage if the same splits occur as 2004 exit poll.

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