Pollster.com

Holy CRAP McSame!

VA goes blue

The Fat Lady is stepping on to the stage. Could be into full voice after Friday!

The Registered Voter aspect of this is insane.

wait for it...

Where did all the McCain trolls run off to this week? Avoiding the avalanche of polls showing the race reverting back to the solid Obama lead it has maintained virtually all year?

There's a Reagan feel to this campaign. It's coming.

Yeah guys we already know...flawed, biased, outlier. Bottom line: Bad, bad, bad poll.

wait for it...

I think the Palin "hot air" balloon is deflating. The McCain campaign has got to do something drastic again. I don't know what could be more drastic than choosing Palin as VP pick though.

I find the LV samples curious. Those polls a week or so ago, pre-republican economic failure story, polls showed McCain up with VERY small LV samples.

ABC News/Wash Post 09/18 - 09/21 698 LV 46 49 Obama +3
SurveyUSA 09/19 - 09/21 716 LV 45 51 Obama +6
InAdv/PollPosition 09/17 - 09/17 502 LV 48 46 McCain +2
National Journal/FD 09/11 - 09/15 400 RV 48 41 McCain +7
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/14 - 09/14 500 LV 48 48 Tie
PPP (D) 09/13 - 09/14 1090 LV 46 48 Obama +2
CNU Virginia Poll 09/10 - 09/14 500 RV 48 39 McCain +9

Obama's registration drive and ground operation are going to win Virginia (not to mention how disgusted people are with Republicans).

Z'OMG! It's over. McCain-Palin should quit now and save themselves the embarassment of a 57-state landslide loss! I can't believe they even tried. How dare they even campaign against the Axelrod juggernaut. Obama is the one we have been waiting for.

/sarc

This does help to explain why the McCain camp played the blame the media card today, and went negative on Obama today. Their internal polling must look like crap! The shine has rubbed off the apple (Palin)...

We need to keep workin' hard DEMS. NEVER LET UP.

if I were McCain I would have had a balls-ache while watching those numbers coming from VA

wait for it...

RaleighNC that was a desperate response. By the way, there are 57 US States and Territories. Maybe you could ask McCain where SPAIN is located?

Of course they know where things stand. Campaigns don't go negative when they are winning.

Patrick is right, it's WAY too soon for the Dems to let their guard down.

On this day in '04, SurveyUSA released this poll in Virginia:

Bush 53
Kerry 42

According to electoral-vote.com, Kerry never polled above 47% and never got within 3 points of Bush in any Virginia poll in 2004.

I hate to say it folks but McCain's slide started just BEFORE the financial news, right after Obama met with Clinton and his campaign took an attacking turn and more negative to really remind voters of what we've been through. It works and FINALLY we have a DEM who understands this.

55/45 women to men in the LV sample? Fail.

watch virginia turn blue in the weeks ahead :-)

wait for it...

Yeah, 60,000 people showing up this weekend in FL to see Gov. Palin is "shine off of the apple". Yeah right, enjoy your "fundamentals" gaffe gift. It expires in a couple of days.

I asm waiting for Boom to pick the internals of this poll apart

OK I said it

I'm waiting too.....I think the witching hour is around 6 PM if I'm not mistaken.

Good news for Obama. Of course, the McCain supporters will question the internals. I'm not interested in the alleged faults of the polls. By election day there should be enough polls about the important states to form a consensus about each state.

@marc

Sarah who?

@thoughtful, robi

wait for it...any minute now...

RaleighNC was the Survey USA poll today a FAIL TOO? LOL Obama up 6 in that one. Or how about the Rasmussen tie in VA or the PP Obama lead by 2 a week ago? Fail? LOL You are graspin' man. McCain's in deep trouble.

AlanSnipes...you don't care about the internals? You should care even if the poll says what you want it to say.

This poll definitely points to a reason for McCain's media attack. They better take a deep breath and get back on a message that speaks to voters instead of placing blame or VA might get out of hand. My family is Virginia home-grown and I've believed since the primaries that VA was looking for a reason to get behind Obama. This crisis might be it, but can it hold?

@Kerrchdavis

I am waiting>>>>>

@marctx

thats ok, we have a new gaffe. McCain on CBS 60 minutes yesterday saying deregulation has been good for the economy.

See, buddy, the nice thing about running against a senile old man like McCain is that, whenever a gaffe expires, he graciously gives us a brand spanking new one.

Look out for the ads this week.

Lets wait and see what the Rasmusen numbers say for Virginia this week shall we. And these numbers do reflect the stock market crisis last week bump for Obama that is dissipating.

From Rasmussen for today's earlier polls, notice the disclaimer,

This Minnesota survey was conducted on Thursday night, September 18, in the midst of the Wall Street roller-coaster week. Several state polls conducted that evening showed very positive results for Barack Obama and it was one of his best recent nights in the daily Presidential Tracking Poll. It remains to be seen whether this solid performance was a temporary blip in the race or the beginning of a new trend leading to a significant advantage for Obama.

Guys...that gaffe with Spain was so good. Look..it seems that McCain didn't get that the commentator was asking him about ZAPATERO, the Prime Minister of Spain. It looks that McCain thought that she was asking him for the ZAPATISTAS, a little, mythical Mexican guerrilla. No one remember the ZAPATISTAS, no even Mexicans. Those poor guys moved to the Mexican jungle, preparing a "revolution" that never started. The "COMANDANTE" Marcos was the head of the group. They are a kind of a folk tale, and McCain was thinking about them!!!!

I am sure McCain is kicking himself for not choosing Romney as VP. Instead, he has the deflating Palin running around the nation telling the same lies about stopping the Bridge to Nowhere. The McCain campaign is absolutely having an identity crisis and states like VA, one of the more conservative in the South/Mid-Atlantic, are shifting blue since the McCain camp is having a tougher time closing the deal on solid red states. Expect CO, NV, and NC numbers in the next few days leading up to the debates to show more progress for Obama.

I wouldn't call 60,000 people for Palin in a very red part of a purple state anything too extraordinary.
In 2004 Kerry drew about 80,000 to the Metrodome in liberal Minneapolis. Also not that extraordinary considering the demographics of Minneapolis.

I wish I could thank Palin personally for accepting McCain's offer. I think McCain, in classic "fighter pilot" fashion, went for the 'quick kill' and lost sight of the broader picture. When all the votes are cast and counted, Palin will be shown to have been a net negative on McCain's campaign. Bush was probably smiling at the Palin pick because he won't be the only one blamed for the failed Republican campaign.

marctx too bad 60,000 didn't show up to see MCCAIN LOL You know, the old fart running for president.

Marktx, no one is disputing that Palin excites evangelicals. The question is whether or not she helps with swing voters. The answer is turning out to be a resounding "no." As for big crowds, well, lots of people like to go see the circus when it's in town. That doesn't mean we all vote for the elephants. The 60,000 number was an outright lie anyway.

As much as I love to see this, it's early, so a lot can happy. But what I really hate about this is the following. I don't think McBush has a chance of gaining much from the debates. At best, he can hold it even, but he's going to look old and outdated, and I don't care what anyone says, Obama is a solid debater. What makes me sad is that with 5-6 weeks left, with the polls like this, the Republicans are going to have to take this much, much uglier. It's their only methodology that works. I feel bad for all of the lies Obama is going to have to face and for what the country is about to go through. Starting October 5, expect to hear things that you'd never thought a politician would say about another human being.

@pion

Except, we cant even give him that. He was a terrible pilot...crashed constantly.

@ Justin:

**Rim Shot**

In 2004:

Virginia....54% women vs. 46% men at the polls.

more like the "quick kill" instincts of a dead goat

@EVERYONE

wait for it...it's coming!

Yeah an interesting thing is the 60,000 turnout for Palin in a FL town of 75,000 yesterday and a half empty auditorium for Obama in WI today. This auditorium was standing room only last week for McCain/Palin.

Does anyone else out there think there is a silent McCain vote that is being redistributed as undecideds in polls? I do.

i think that crowd in florida was more like 25,000, lol....sorry

kerrchdavis:

Right wing responses....NOW

"You hate America"

"POW!POW!POW!"

"USA USA USA!!!"

Here we go again...

@RaleighNC

55/45 is not an unreasonable female/male ratio.
In the 2004 election Virginia exit polls showed a 54/46 ratio of Women to men. Women tend to vote in large numbers then men.

@robi

So does that make me unamerican to call him a serial adulterer? lol.

I don't think I could get 850th out of 899 in a class even if I literally submitted poop for homework.

btw, green bay, wisconsin is a conservative leaning community.

@s.b.

you're the only one, to answer your question.

Anyone else think that McCain has been inflating his rally turnout numbers again in a desperate attempt to inject some excitement in a campaign that has been stumbling, fumbling and tumbling for the last two weeks?

I do.

s.b.:

Joe Biden was at my college (1800 students) and over 4500 people (almost as big as Wasilla!) showed up. There was no more room in the standing area of the quad and I don't know what it was like behind the barricades because I was right behind the podium. Sorry, one rally (show me the source saying that by the way) doesn't take away how popular the Obama campagin is. I'm re-energized now....GAME ON.

Ronnie it was the fire chief that stated that number. Why would you believe the fire chief was lying. People were lining the streets that couldn't get into the venue. He was counting them.

Why is everyone a lier if they don't think that Obama is the messiah? Did those photos on ABC news of a half empty arena today for Obama in WI lie too? The same arena that was jammed to the rafters last week for McCain? Yeah that's just your lying eyes.

Kerrchdavis: not to mention *894* out of 899. McCain is a special guy and we thank him for his service to the nation and hope he enjoys the benefits of an Obama administration.

its amazing now how the republicans are trying to make a big deal about rally crowds, lol...obama was getting picked apart by these same republicans months ago about his rally crowds.

@sb

The difference is that when an arena is half empty for Obama, its NEWS. When you get 1 huge turnout for whats her name, Repubs get over the top excited.

It says a lot.

Ronnie the Obama campaign booked this stadium. They wouldn't have booked it if they didn't think they could fill it.

Obama's events for a couple of weeks have been half empty, McCain's have to be moved to larger venues and people still can't get in.

sb: Green Bay is a conservative leaning town. Also, this rally was held on a week day where as Palins was at a RETIREMENT COMMUNITY on a weekend.

s.b.:

I think anybody who believes McCain's been for regulation this whole time is lying to themselves. He's against golden parachutes but his top economic adviser got a 21 million dollar parachute. Yeah....no way.

s.b.

one fire chief called it 30,000! that's not 60 is it?

The thing is your girl turns off more than she turns on!

@s.b.: "Obama's events for a couple of weeks have been half empty"

Surely you realize that this is a pretty pathetic argument.

@EVERYONE

wait for it guys, its gotta be soon! It's not like he does anything else.

sb,
maybe so but i read an article sighting that number to be on the high side....these are from people who were actually on the ground...mccain campaign also has a history of misleading their rally attendees.

First, this poll was taken in the middle of last week in a period admittedly bad for McCain -- at least, bad in certain areas of the country.

More relevantly, even according to Pollster's own data, Obama has never had the lead in VA except for the period immediately before and inclusive of the Democratic convention.

Remember it is Obama who is needing to play catch-up, in the sense of needing to win more electoral votes than did his party's previous nominee, not McCain.

Further, like CO, Obama has been pouring money & personnel into VA, whereas McCain has thus far essentially ignored VA and CO.

In both VA and CO the McCain ground teams have not even been set-up because they are consistently Republican states. In CO, for example, there wasn't even a McCain state director until August 25.

Ten days prior to the election, these ground teams will be in place to turnout the GOP base.

There are simply too many Republicans (or, at least, voters who vote Republican in presidential elections) in CO and VA for Obama to win.

Just like Kerry (and Gore), CO and VA will remain GOP, albeit they will be close.

@s.b. You seem to be capable of having a discussion without name calling and outright lies (which makes me wonder why you support McCain, honestly), but you are constantly really reaching. Try to take a step back and look at things objectively.

...and if you don't mind me asking, why are you supporting McCain? Do you mind sharing?

I'm gonna copy and paste this great op ed on some comparisons. I don't think it's necessarily white privilege, but there most definitely is a double-standard:

"For those who still can't grasp the concept of white privilege, or who are constantly looking for some easy-to-under stand examples of it, perhaps this list will help.

White privilege is when you can get pregnant at seventeen like Bristol Palin and every one is quick to insist that your life and that of your family is a personal matter, and that no one has a right to judge you or your parents, because "every family has challenges," even as black and Latino families with similar "challenges" are regularly typified as irresponsible, pathological and arbiters of social decay.

White privilege is when you can call yourself a "****in' redneck," like Bristol Palin's boyfriend does, and talk about how if anyone messes with you, you'll "kick their ****in' ass," and talk about how you like to "shoot ****" for fun, and still be viewed as a responsible, all-American boy (and a great son-in-law to be) rather than a thug.

White privilege is when you can attend four different colleges in six years like Sarah Palin did (one of which you basically failed out of, then returned to after making up some coursework at a community college), and no one questions your intelligence or commitment to achievement, whereas a person of color who did this would be viewed as unfit for college, and probably someone who only got in in the first place because of affirmative action.

White privilege is when you can claim that being mayor of a town smaller than most medium-sized colleges, and then Governor of a state with about the same number of people as the lower fifth of the island of Manhattan, makes you ready to potentially be president, and people don't all piss on themselves with laughter, while being a black U.S. Senator, two-term state Senator, and constitutional law scholar, means you're "untested."

White privilege is being able to say that you support the words "under God" in the pledge of allegiance because "if it was good enough for the founding fathers, it's good enough for me," and not be immediately disqualified from holding office - since, after all, the pledge was written in the late 1800s and the "under God" part wasn't added until the

1950s - while believing that reading accused criminals and terrorists their rights (because, ya know, the Constitution, which you used to teach at a prestigious law school requires it), is a dangerous and silly idea only supported by mushy liberals.

White privilege is being able to be a gun enthusiast and not make people immediately scared of you.

White privilege is being able to have a husband who was a member of an extremist political party that wants your state to secede from the Union, and whose motto was "Alaska first," and no one quest ions y our patriotism or that of your family, while if you're black and your spouse merely fails to come to a 9/11 memorial so she can be home with her kids on the first day of school, people immediately think she's being disrespectful.

White privilege is being able to make fun of community organizers and the work they do - like, among other things, fight for the right of women to vote, or for civil rights, or the 8- hour workday, or an end to child labor - and people think you're being pithy and tough, but if you merely question the experience of a small town mayor and 18-month governor with no foreign policy expertise beyond a class she took in college - you're somehow being mean, or even sexist.

White privilege is being able to convince white women who don't even agree with you on any substantive issue to vote for you and your running mate anyway, because all of a sudden your presence on the ticket has inspired confidence in these same white women, and made them give your party a "second look."

White privilege is being able to fire people who didn't support your political campaigns and not be accused of abusing your power or being a typical politician who engages in favoritism, while being black and merely knowing some folks from the old-line political machines in Chicago means you must be corrupt.

White privilege is being able to attend churches over the years whose pastors say that people who voted for John Kerry or merely criticize George W. Bush are going to hell, and that the U.S. is an explicitly Christian nation and the job of Christians is to bring Christian theological principles into government, and who bring in speakers who say the conflict in the Middle East is God's punishment on Jews for rejecting Jesus, and every one can still think you're just a good church-going Christian, but if you're black and friends with a black pastor who has noted (as have Colin Powell and the U.S. Department of Defense) that terrorist attacks are often the result of U.S. foreign policy and who talks about the history of racism and its effect on black people, you're an extremist who probably hates America.

White privilege is not knowing what the Bush Doctrine is when asked by a reporter, and then people get angry at the reporter for asking you such a "trick question," while being black and merely refusing to give one-word answers to the queries of Bill O'Reilly means you're dodging the question, or trying to seem overly intellectual and nuanced.

White privilege is being able to claim your experience as a POW has anything at all to do with your fitness for president, while being black and experiencing racism is, as Sarah Palin has referred to it a "light" burden.

And finally, white privilege is the only thing that could possibly allow someone to become president when he has voted with George W. Bush 90 percent of the time, even as unemployment is skyrocketing, people are losing their homes, inflation is rising, and the U.S. is increasingly isolated from world opinion, just because white voters aren't sure about that whole "change" thing. Ya know, it's just too vague and ill-defined, unlike, say, four more years of the same, which is very concrete and certain."

Wow, this is impressive. VA is definitely in the blue category. I'll be amazed if it doesn't go for Obama, especially after other recent polls show him so far ahead. I honestly doubted a strong confirmation of other polls.

The MSM choses what's news and does so with a ridiculous bias that has lost them all credibility. If Obama had an impromptu rally anywhere that 60,000 people attended it would be the headline story all day. His acceptance speech had people from all over the US and it was only 80,000, but that was a big dealfor weeks. This is an impromptu crowd in a samll town. It is disgraceful that the MSM choses to ignore this popularity of the Republican ticket right now. Well they won't be able to ignore it Nov 4th. There is a significant silent vote for McCain. Significant and it's being redistributed in polls as undecided or under weighted.

As a Virginian, these polls make me smile. Of course it really is of no consequence unless the Poll in November matches it.

Nonetheless, I am glad to see Virginia is coming to her senses.

Maybe a few more polls can come out to confirm this trend.

@whitetower

Republican turnout is supposed to be (and to a large degree usually is) reflected in polls such as these.

Ronnie again it was in a park that couldn't hold all the people. They were lining the streets. There is no reason to disbelieve the fire chief other than a massive and irrespoonsible bias in the media towards Obama.

@Robi: The funny thing about Carly Fiorina besides her $21 million dollar severance pay after she was fired from HP is that HP prospered after she left...

Again with the MSM....SHUT UP!

If you're going to claim bias, show me facts that are being left out of the equation. Don't you dare call FOX "fair and balanced."

I love how facts are part of the MSM left-wing liberal bias. It never ceases to amaze me.

@sb

"There is a significant silent vote for McCain. Significant and it's being redistributed in polls as undecided or under weighted."

Ok, explain to us all, HOW?

The MSM covered the Palin speech, I read about it this morning. The numbers weren't mentioned because it was discovered that the McCain campaign lied about how many people went to the DC rally. The MSM discovered that by asking the fire marshal and police department. Obama drew 75,000 to a speech in Portland. Obama already did it, and he did it better. Send Palin off to Berlin, and we'll see how she does. She'd fail. The places in the world where they'd appreciate a strong social conservative wouldn't like her because she's a woman -- the Middle East.

@EVERYONE ELSE

wait for it...you know he's getting ready...probably reading the internals and making stuff up RIGHT NOW

No thoughtful one fire man, probably volunteer who knows, whom the MSM drudged up who was not on duty nor was it his job to estimate the crown size, said maybe it was 30,000. The guy might not even have been a fire man and his name was never provided aka he might not even exist. Again the FIRE CHIEF, whose job it is to estimate crowd size said it was 60,000 including those lining the streets who couldn't get into the park.

Only MSM lack of credibility or Obama zealots will call the fire chief a liar, which is what you are doing. Its tedious. It's his job to estimate crowd size.

By the way, is anybody else disgusted that the average American would lose horribly in a political debate against any European citizen? Those bastards won't beat me!

By the way keep calling fire chiefs liars. it will go over really well in Pensylvannia, Michigan, NY and NJ. I'll chose to believe the fire chief.

The "MSM" in this country is centre right, not liberal at all. If you want to really know what's going on in this country go to bbc.co.uk or guardian.co.uk.

Just for laughs, remember this prediction:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/sep/sep22.html

@Robi

No, they wouldn't.

@sb

Why do crowd sizes even matter anyway? Of course Palin is going to be popular in some places. But why don't you cite polls, most of which have her numbers absolutely TANKING.

SB,
When your campaign reports 23,000 for a rally when the actual number was about 8,000 then either someone's math skills are elementary level or (more likely) that person is bias....The McCain campaign has made these misleading numbers before...I believe the people on the ground and even another marshal who claimed the attendance to be about 25,000.

btw, obama drew 75,000 in portland, oregon over the summer...obama over the last month has been in more rural areas doing his rallies.

MSM MSM MSM MSM MSM MSM MSM MSM......**sigh** conspiracy theories are nice when you have nothing else to go back on huh?

@whitetower

yeah, its hilarious that the prediction was wrong, and the person who won has now destroyed this country.

hilarious!

60,000 to see Palin in Fla? Where's the photos?

Any account I read quotes one guy, the local fire chief of the retirement community, as giving that number.

I've been to too many mis-counted events to just accept a number like that.

Thank you, kerrchdavis. What a silly argument for goodness sake!!! The size of the crowd doesn't matter guys, just look at some places where Obama got great crowds at the rallies, but Hillary got the crowds at the polls. Please!!!

s.b.:

do you know what would really play horribly in Penn and NY?

Giuliani at the RNC whoring out 9/11...oh crap...I guess he already did....he's such a bastard.

@kerrchdavis:

The AVERAGE american vs the AVERAGE European citizen. Not you nor me.

Boy, he's still not here. This poll must be taking extra time to spin.

Sorry everyone, just be patient!

Robi, I think that piece is complete trash, personally. I think very little of the actual content has anything to do with whether a person is black or white. There are other factors as work and this stinks of race-baiting.

I love it. Crowd sizes SUDDENLY matter. The Thugs are sooo funny sometimes. It's kinda cute.

I am from West Virginia. Everyone is watching Virginia but few polls from WV. If you start to see any move toward Obama in the rural parts of VA, it won't be long before you see WV moving in the same direction. Not enough yet to think that Obama will carry the state but 5 weeks is a long time.

I know is this poll part of the MSM conspiracy theory as well? I can't wait...

@s,b.

You are FoS!

That was the GOP story line 30,000 and FIRE CHIEF'S NUMBER.

You re a LIAR just like your candidates!

I am from West Virginia. Everyone is watching Virginia but few polls from WV. If you start to see any move toward Obama in the rural parts of VA, it won't be long before you see WV moving in the same direction. Not enough yet to think that Obama will carry the state but 5 weeks is a long time.

@robi

does that mean we're ABOVE average? :D Anyway, that was just a response to your "Those bastards won't beat me" and not your initial statement. lol.

I seriously doubt there were actually 60K people at that Palin event (are there pictures showing that type of crowd?), but even if there was, I don't think it means that much. She was picked entirely for her crowd pleasing ability, the story would be if she didn't attract crowds. There is no doubt that she has stirred up excitement in far right circles, the question is whether that is enough, and more specifically will her extreme policy positions turn off swing voters?

Yeah, crowd sizes now matters for the Republicans, lol...They used Obama's rally numbers over the summer to hammer home that he's just a celebrity...More flip-flops from the GOP.

By the way, let's hear it for McCain's 13 cars even though 2 are foreign made and McCain said he only buys American....another lie...So let's compare:

Obama: McCain:

1 House 8 properties
1 Car (Ford Hybrid I think) 13 cars (2 foreign)

I don't know if the alignment will work properly.

I don't buy into the "elitist" argument for any side. But if people want to go there, here's my response.

In Michigan, Obama 51% McCain 44%

The first Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Michigan the state finds Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. An earlier Rasmussen Reports survey found Obama with a five point advantage two weeks ago.

McCain Ahead Again in Virginia, 50% to 48%

John McCain has regained his modest lead in Virginia, where he now bests Barack Obama 50% to 48% in the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Ohio: McCain 50%, Obama 46%

The latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds John McCain holding onto a modest 50% to 46% lead over Barack Obama in Ohio.

FOX/Rasmussen Swing State Polling - September 21, 2008

Polling this week in Florida and Ohio shows little net change from the previous week with McCain holding a very modest advantage in each state. McCain and Obama both increased their level of support slightly in each as the number of undecided/third party voters declined by three points in each.

The amount to fill up all 13 cars would be about $760 or the average rent for an average American.

Yeah, this guy is really in touch with the day to day problems of Americans.

You forgot PA:

Obama 48% vs. McCain 45%

So you criticize posters for calling fire marshalls liars, but it's ok for the McCain campaign to make up numbers and attribute them to fire marshals who admit they never said them?

"The McCain campaign cited a fire marshal as the source of the "23,000" figure. But the fire marshal "said his office did not supply that number to the campaign and could not confirm it."

And according to the article, in another incident, the McCain camp claimed "10,000" people showed up for Palin's first public appearance, citing the Secret Service as the source for that figure. But, as the article notes, the Secret Service never gave any information like that to the McCain Campaign."

@thoughtful

Perfect! That has GOT to bring him out of his CAVE...

Debates on Friday and I'm pumped. This will be awesome.

Rasmussen's numbers are out McCain is up by 2% in Virginia 50-48, breaking last week's tie. Their polling was done only on the 21st after things had settled down a bit.

See kiddies, you just look like kiddies when you start making grand statements with a little venom on the side based on one poll.

Down 2 in Rasmussen for Obama but up 3 and 6 in 2 other polls is a good day for Obama in VA. Especially considering Survey USA ranks higher than Rasmussen in accuracy per Nate at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

@sb

Um, I believe you are calling US "kiddies" based on one poll too, smart one.

@Kerrchdavis

Later when Eric post, he's not shy he'll come out then!

Calm down. Look at the sampling error, boys and girls. Still a statistical tie. Unless there is a major game changer this looks to be pretty much the same all the way to voting day.

s.b. it was based on TWO polls, 1 poll which has a much larger LV (Survey USA) and higher pollster rating. It's still looking good in VA. McCain will be rolling staff in soon. And Rasmussen shows MI safe for Obama. I can't wait to see Colorado #'s.

@NW

I think the Michigan number and today's Minnesota numbers are excellent. Assuming Barack holds on to Penn (todays polls indicate hes in position to do so) we are well on our way to Kerry States + Iowa + NM + Co and possibly a steal of VA.

Excellent!

@marctx

"Yeah, 60,000 people showing up this weekend in FL to see Gov. Palin is "shine off of the apple". Yeah right, enjoy your 'fundamentals' gaffe gift. It expires in a couple of days."

Yeah, and the 'Left Behind' series is a best-seller. I bet people even line up outside the bookstore for that sampling of literary/theological genius! Do you, marctx? Wait, don't answer. I know the answer.

I'm sorry, marctx, you really are a "low information voter." (I'm not saying that you're "not smart," I'm simply using a euphemism to express that very sentiment. Totally different.)

You guys are losing. Oh no! Quick, plan B: SHAME THE MEDIA!

IT'S ALL YOUR FAULT, LIBERAL MEDIA!

YOU'RE ALL IN THE TANK! A PANZER TANK OF OBAMA!

@s.b.,

you're right. Polling on one single day, a Sunday no less, is obviously much more accurate than polling over a period of days, namely ones spanning both the week AND the weekend.

see grampa, i'd prefer to look like a "kiddie" rather than an ignorant grampa pushing an agenda.

Goddamn MOE.

@s.b.:

Yea......you're so naive that you immediately buy into any McCain stat they throw out (oh and they've done some amazing lies in the past). And you're calling us kiddies?

By the way, thanks for using and hiding behind firemen in this forum....jackass...

New Hampshire poll out of WMUR - McCain 47/Obama 45. Check it out. Another tight race.

SB,

I don't mean to rain on your 60k parade but I have been to the villages and the space in the town center could not hold 60K people if they stood on each others heads. I'm being serious the Villages is a huge retirement community full of golf carts, they have golf cart parking at the frigging hospital and in the town square. Anyone who knows the villages can test my knowledge with this. 60k is a fantasy.

Being that Rasmussen appears to consistantly give Obama his lowest polling numbers these results make it a good day.

These Rasmussen numbers are great for Obama!

Michigan!

Minn!

PA!

VA! he is underpolling in my opinion 18-29 and the AAs by a combined 8% doesn't that explain every thing? LV model very significant demo shanges since 2004.

Ohio - I can't explain other than WV, I think there has to be underpolling there as well. LV model

Wait for it..

One thing we have to remember is that in VA, GA and KY, they are voting RIGHT NOW! Both campaigns are actively encouraging their most partisan supporters to cast ballots so they don't have to worry about GOTV efforts for them later.

The one thing I don't think has been well documented is that McCain really isn't making a play for VA. He is only running ads in the Washington, DC media market, and I haven't heard of any campaign events outside either northern VA or the tidewater region.

Oh, how come McCain can't get anyone on his own to his campaign rallys anymore? It seems like it is the Palin-McCain ticket.

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB122178603685354943-lMyQjAxMDI4MjExOTcxODk2Wj.html#printMode

This is a very good article that discusses the reason for this crisis. It's the WSJ so I don't want to hear right-wingers shouting "MSM LIBERAL LEFT DEMOCRATIC PROPAGANDA BIAS RABBLE RABBLE RABBLE" so calm down.

A little education helps.

My my ... What is this? Peanut gallery?

Some internals...
28% Republicans
33% Democrats

In 2004 and 2006 exit polls, Republicans slightly outnumbered Democrats.

Blacks - 96% Obama 4% McCain

Democrats - 96% Obama 3% McCain
Independents - 46% Obama 47% McCain
Republicans - 5% Obama 92% McCain

I think the numbers for Blacks and Democrats for Obama are unlikely to go any higher. Obama certainly could win Va but a 5 point victory in Va is doubtful. Obama 380+ EVA is a better bet.

Remember that the election is 6 weeks away not next week.

quote of the day:
Asked whether he thinks President George W. Bush should be taking a more public role in the negotiations over the rescue plan, Mr. Frank said: "I frankly don't think that would help us pass the bill."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122209290438362805.html?mod=testMod

reading of the day:
http://faculty.chicagogsb.edu/luigi.zingales/Why_Paulson_is_wrong.pdf

Mike

Good point I forgot Rasmussen did these polls on Sunday which is historically Obamas poorest day for polling. Young people are out, and poor folks are working.

@macsuk, mike

That is kind of stupid. Ideally, you would do these polls on Tue, the day of the election.

Let's hear it for Palin for saying that the words "under god" should be in the pledge because, "If it was good enough for the founding fathers, it's good enough for me!"

Swing and a miss! Most basic American history and she fails...

@ whitetower

...."There are simply too many Republicans (or, at least, voters who vote Republican in presidential elections) in CO and VA for Obama to win."...

As a person who has voted GOP every election except for Clinton's second term, I have to say this time is different. I'm not the only party jumper I know, either. We also have a record of electing Democrats as Governors and have the distinction of being the first state to vote an African-American into our state's highest office.

Out of ten of my closest relatives and friends registered in VA and who vote GOP every election, 7 are voting for Obama.

I am a member of Sen. Obama's groundforce, also. Our numbers are large and we have a dedicated group who are registering voters everywhere from college campuses, to the front doors of the teeniest convenience stores in rural towns, to the foot of the beds of stroke victims who couldn't come out of their room to register, (this one was one of my personal favorites, she was so thankful!) and everywhere in between.

If McCain wants to wait for the last 10 days, all I have to say is he is two months too late. The Obama 'Campaign for Change' in VA has already painted the streets blue.

Can not complete an analysis of this poll without the cross-tabs. Overall, compared to the 2004 exit poll for Virginia, the poll over-samples Democrats but under-samples African Americans. I need another Virginia poll where we can see cross-tab data by demographic group.

Just so you know, the fire marshall estimated the crowd for Palin in Florida at 25,000. Not bad, but of course the Republican party's compulsion to lie about everything led them to say 60,000. It's a sickness.

Marctx_ Well that 60,000 was a nice made up number by the campaign...but the fire department said "tens of thousands"...so maybe they should have said "90,000"?

Oh and how many people show up on the weekend in Tampa to see Goofy and Mickey?

Hmmm ...

Five hours after the poll hits pollster.com and still no boomshat?

Maybe the shack literally went BOOM when he/she/it literally went BOOM when the headline came up on the shack's monitor???

I would have thought it was the "Fire Chief's job to put out fires and run Emergency services out to the retirement homes...not make crowd estimates. Especially in a place like the Villages. So maybe I trust the McCain campaign more on this ;-)

But I can't find the quote and why he thought it was so large...or his method of counting. I only found this quote.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/story/696050.html

"Palin drew thousands more than the estimated 20,000 people that turned out for Bush. A fire rescue official estimated the crowd at 25,000 to 30,000, while the Republican Party of Florida pegged the audience at twice that size."

I did a search for photos on the net of that "massive crowd". Interesting that I couldn't find any that didn't simply show Palin at the podium. None of the vast crowd. And no helicopter or other aerial shots...which one would expect if the crowd was actually so vast.

Very odd!

Can anyone else find some good photos from a reliable (non-photoshopped) source?

As I have been trying to tell you folks - Boom is a GOP plant. They are having a hard time coming up with new talking points. That's why you haven't heard from him. He's only a shill. Come out, come out wherever you are Boom.

Hi All,

I am a Virginia Obama supporter and volunteer, and I am happy as can be about these poll numbers. However, I don't think we can put our guard down and assume Obama is going to win the election. We still have a long way to go, and the electorate is pretty fickle these days. Rather than celebrating about the Obama upswing, we need to organize, organize, organize.