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VA: Obama 50, McCain 46 (SurveyUSA-9/12-14)

Topics: PHome

SurveyUSA
9/12-14/08; 732 LV, 3.7%
Mode: IVR

Virginia
Obama 50, McCain 46
(9/8: McCain 49, Obama 47)

Sen: Warner (D) 57, GIlmore (R) 34, Parker (G), Redpath (L) 1
(9/8: Warner 56, GIlmore 35, Parker 4, Redpath 3)

 

Comments
Tyler:

This poll is such good news it _deserves_ to be posted twice!

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thoughtful:


The people know all about the GOP lies!

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riverrun:

This was predictable. The national trackers are still reflecting McCain's convention bounce - but the repub trend is still downward (check today's results from Daily Kos /R2000, and especially the very useful internals: unfavourables increasing for both MC & Palin.)

As we leave the convention bounce behind, we will continue to see a return to the numbers as before - with the impressive ground game beginning to show up in the figures.

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BLeigh82:

I imagine McCain will end up still winning with men and the 50+ age groups in the end. Still, this just proves that VA will be very, very close this year.

If it remains close, it may be THE state to watch this year. I suspect McCain will win Florida and Ohio...but VA just seems to be a good bet for Obama as it turns more and more blue.

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carl29:

O.K guys. I think this poll makes my point. These days polls are all over the map. Last week's poll were taken in the high of McCain's bounce. Now polls are swinning back to where they were before. So, up in the air.

On McCain's favor: Last week's poll had 35% Rep. vs. 36% Dem. 1% adv. for the Dems. Now, it is 33% Rep. vs. 37% Dem., a 4% adv. for Dems. However, the important movement came from Independents. How does it come that last week McCain had a whooping 21% advantage among Ind., and now it has shrunk to 4%. I don't know what to make of that, but time will tell.

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Tybo:

The obamaites told us that SURVERY USA was one of the worst pollers..

now they love them.

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RaleighNC:

So NOW SurveyUSA is the god of the pollsters I bet ya!! LOL. This means the race is flux, and it won't be decided until the final days.

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Bill A:

From the poll........DC area going to McCain ?

Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama.

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Stillow:

Obama supporters on this site always love a pollster when it shows Obama ahead....then all of a sudden the pollster is a really cruddy one who is bias when they show mccain ahead....they do it everyday.

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KipTin:

I am waiting for the Rasmussen poll on Virginia later this day to see if their is indeed a trend for Obama.

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Inkan1969:

Give me a break. A lot of republican posters have fallen over themselves praising polls that show tightening races in blue states, like the recent New York poll. For the republican posters to slam democrat posters for talking up favorable polls is hypocricy.

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boskop:

gallup is out: pretty status quo.

all waiting for first debate and more palin interview.

damn, what does a person have to do waiting for some stats from WI?

is it like cows and overhead wires dont matter in the general scheme of things?

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boomshak:

Obama Supporters, before you let that thrill run too far up your leg, read this:

Now keep in mind that both Gallup and Ramsussen have shown McCain up solidly between 2-3% for last 3 days.

"One week ago, McCain led among men by 11 points. Today, McCain and Obama tie. One week ago, McCain led among voters age 50+ by 14 points. Today, McCain leads by 1. One week ago, Obama led among lower income voters by 6 points. Today, Obama leads by 20. One week ago, McCain led among Independents by 21 points. Today, McCain leads by 4. 17% of Republicans today crossover to vote Democrat, up from 11% last week and 7% last month. 12% of Democrats cross over to vote Republican, compared with 10% in the two previous polls. Strikingly: week-on-week movement in the DC suburbs was to McCain; movement in the Shenandoah and Central VA was to Obama."

I'm sorry, but just ROFLMAO.

McCain loses 11 point among men? 13 points among older voters? 17 friggin points among Independents?

I mean, c'mon, even the most ardent Obama supporter can't believe that steaming pile.

Worst Poll Ever - Fail...

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Connor:

boomshak,

I saw your post in the now-deleted second thread for this poll. How is this an outlier? VA has spent months being within 4 pts for both candidates. Now there's a 4 pt lead for Obama, a state he's lead in before. I fail to see how that's completely shocking, so much that it warrants accusations of "liberal tampering."

If a poll comes out tomorrow showing a 3 pt lead for McCain in Michigan, that would be no more shocking than this VA poll. It's a close race. These are "toss-up" states.

You really are accusing SUSA of taking "orders" from "DailyKos"? We're talking about probably the most accurate major polling outfit we have. And you're accusing it of "leftist propaganda"?

"Lol! Lol! Lol!" Jesus, how old are you?

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thoughtful:

Boom

I told you that if we extrapolate on Ras's pre September 1 IDs then Obama would be leading the Ras tracker 49% or 50% - 46% today.

Sorry the BIG MO has stalled wait until Ras releases his state polls at 6!

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KipTin:

Yes, some consistency from Obamanation regarding pollsters would be nice. It makes them look...you know... BIASED with BLINDERS ON... for their guy.

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Stuart:

North VA pop is highly educated and this poll could reflect Palin ABC interview.

Not many in this demographic are moose hunters that would go to war with Russia over Georgia, or support Israel going off and attacking IRAN without our second-guessing them.

These people probably even read papers like the NYT and WaPo.

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Connor:

Tybo,

"The obamaites told us that SURVERY USA was one of the worst pollers..

now they love them."

And when a poll comes out showing good news for McCain you do...the exact same thing.

I'm not defending the Obamanicans' ridiculous "THIS POLL IS A LIE!" accusation whenever it looks not-so-hot for BHO. But you're doing the exact same thing. The difference being that you come across as a snide twerp.

This is a close race. These are "toss-up" states. The numbers are gonna spin.

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Inkan1969:

boomshak has been falling over himself praising that New York poll. It seems he's the one who loves a pollster when it shows McCain gaining....then all of a sudden declares the pollster is a really cruddy one who is bias when they show Obama ahead....

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boomshak:

Conner,

Take 5 minutes to look at the internals of the poll. THAT is why it's an outlier.

We are talking MASSIVE shifts to Obama in every subgroup which completely contradicts Gallup and Rasmussen.

Outlier.

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carl29:

At the time last poll was taken: Gallup had McCain up by 5%. At the time this poll was taken, Gallup had McCain up by 2%, a 3% in support.

I won't go over Rasmussen because at the time last week's poll was taken, its party ID was different than this week's. Before, Democrats had a 7% advantage in Rasmussen poll. Now, it is 5%.

Although I'm not saying that this poll is 100% accurate, something is right about McCain's numbers moving down from where they were a week ago, during the pick of his convention bounce.

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RaleighNC:

KipTin...agreed. Rasmussen later today will reveal this as the trend or SurveyUSA outlying here.

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boomshak:

thoughtful,

I have given up on you. You conitnue to spout the same nonsensical argumnet on Rasmussen day after day. Hopeless.

Anyway, let's see if Rasmussen confirms.

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Tybo:

Connor,

nope, I've never derided a poll in favor of Obama.
I have asked what happened to all the negative polls, I have questioned the demographic.

I have never done the"survery usa sucks" or the "that's a repubican poll"

YOu however have a hard time telling the difference between the questioning methods, mocking on double standards and having double standards.
Hence, you are an Obama supporter.

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sherman:

I would like to see at least 1 more poll showing an Obama lead in VA before getting all excited. SurveyUSA and Rasmussen have gotten high marks for accuracy because they are automated, but even then they can have outliers. Only time will tell...

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KipTin:

Yes, please give up on Rasmussen's political ID changing. These changes are based on polling and not on poltical bias. The only difference is that Rasmussen is using data from last 6 weeks, rather than last 3 months.

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boskop:

@obites

here's my take on the va poll for what's it worth.

first, it IS a poll from a reputable organization.

based on personal contacts and email, i would say that palin has kicked up quite the violent reaction from the over fifty year old women who still work as career yuppie types in northern VA. This time if you get them on the phone they'll talk!!.

i have been the recipient of extreme wacky dump palin email based on my incredibly elitist education (:>), (which is why i feel quite comfortable slamming the ivy--s! it's a dirty job but someone has to do it).

they are going berserk that this WOMAN, this IDIOT, this ALASKAN, HOLY **** and from WHAT WASSILA???, dare take up residence in tony downtown DC>

they are trying to get palin dumped or form a grassroots organization to form a bulkhead against her rise. like how's that gonna work?

i just email them back that i think they must be jealous, duh.

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boomshak:

Heres' the thing. If there was some dramatic news big enough to drive the internals of this poll to such extreme levels in favor of Obama, there would likely be "some" confirmation at the national level.

Yet in his analysis today, Gallup say it looks as if McCain is rock solid here at +2.

When something swims this hard against the tide, you have to wonder, that's all I am saying. It's too bad SUSA doesn't release their party affiliation sampling.

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Mike_in_CA:

boomshak, where are the massive shifts? Please point them out because I looked at the crosstabs, and everything seems in line.

at least now you've been exposed. NY Siena poll (clearly an outlier) is GOLD, but VA SUSA poll (maybe an outlier, maybe not) is DEFINITELY AN OUTLIER!!

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carl29:

"We are talking MASSIVE shifts to Obama in every subgroup which completely contradicts Gallup and Rasmussen."

I don't understand why you say this contradicts Gallup. I was just checking gallup numbers during the days when the previous poll was taken, the one showing McCain leading by 2%. What did I find? Well, during those same days, Gallup had McCain at the pick, 5% above Obama. A week later, McCain is 2% above Obama.

So, here is my question: Since the days around Sept. 8th, when the previous SurveyUsa was taken, has Gallup reflected some loss of support for McCain? Let me see...he was up by 5% during 3 consecutive days and now is up by 2% during 3 consecutive days. Yes I think there has been some loss of support, 5 is more than 2.

So, are you surprise that a poll which had McCain up by 2% at the pick of his bounce, now shows him losing some support? I'm not saying that McCain is down precisely by 4%; however, I don't find irrational that he might have lost his previous 2% edge. I don't know, it could be a tie.

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atreides:

Why can't we see the weights for AA's and students in the Rasmussen Poll. If Rasmussen is still thinking that AA's will only participate like they did in 2004, I think he's in for a surprise. Every Rasmussen poll eliminates Obama support because of the historical lackluster participation rates of AA's. But doing that denies the historic nature of the race. If he revised party affiliation spread, why not the participation rates? This isn't rocket science.

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Mike_in_CA:

@boomshak,

"It's too bad SUSA doesn't release their party affiliation sampling."

Um, they do: 37% Dem, 33% Rep, 23% Ind...

Also, you take Gallup for gold, who says Gallup isn't an OUTLIER? How come you get the make all the rules? NO FAIR! :(

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Xenobion:

It's easy to lump Obamaites into one entity rather than challenging any individual and their arguments eh Tybo?

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carl29:

"bad SUSA doesn't release their party affiliation sampling."

Look at the bottom, under the party name headings.

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Connor:

Tybo,

Yeah, I'm an Obama supporter. But unlike a lot of Obama supporters and McCain supporters, I don't think this election has been decided. I think it's in flux. I think it's neck-and-neck. And I think it's going to stay that way until Nov. 4.

Take that recent W. Virginia poll. Why is McCain no longer pounding Obama there? Of course Obama will lose the state, but he's not getting hammered with Clinton-esque margins anymore.

Does that say anything to you? To me, it says that we might not have as good of a grip on "how certain people will vote" as we (and the media) think.

So the hardcore Obamicans that ridicule "depressing polls" come across as...what? Excitable? Reactionary? Jittery? Okay.

But how do you come across with your little comments? Snide, sarcastic.

I'll take reactionary and jittery any day.

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Snowspinner:

The line "The Obamaites said SurveyUSA was one of the worst pollsters" is idiotic.

We do not have a hive mind. It's true, there have been SUSA polls that seem implausible - every once in a while they release one with a really bizarre number for the AA vote. But I don't think anyone would argue with the basic fact that SUSA has, statistically, been an extremely reliable number.

The overall story of the last five days or so has been Obama getting back on the offensive.

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zotz:

McCain is in a bad way. He is forced to defend a 2pt lead while everyone (including Rove) is calling him a liar.

The Palin Phenomenon is falling apart. QB McCain threw a 90 yard pass completion and it looked like a TD but the refs are calling the play back because of an offensive foul.

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Stuart:

The Palin effect will not be uniformly distributed across the country, so the national polls may diverge significantly from whats happening at the state electoral level. This is even reflected in intrade where Barack wins at the state level with 273 electoral votes while McCain wins at the top level with 6%.

Palin will certainly be a negative for northern VA.

Note: Intrade is still at Rep: 60A 55B and DEM 45A 40B, so they are sure not treating this poll as "Gospel"

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boomshak:

People, this poll is claiming Obama picked up 17 points amongst Independents in ONE WEEK!??

Are you kidding me?

Go ahead, delude yourselves for a few hours until Rasmussen sets you straight later today. I mean, Obama is getting beaten so bad everywhere else you need to find some happiness somewhere, lol.

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player:

This poll is definitely an outlier. This would be too much of a turn around for one week. Especially since Palin was drawing crowds in the tens of thousands of mostly women waiting in line for hours while she was in Virginia last week.

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Connor:

Lol, boomshak! LOL!

LOL! ROTFLMAO!

LOL!

...

LOL!

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carl29:

I was just checking gallup numbers during the days when the previous poll was taken, the one showing McCain leading by 2%. What did I find? Well, during those same days, Gallup had McCain at the pick, 5% above Obama. A week later, McCain is 2% above Obama.

So, here is my question: Since the days around Sept. 8th, when the previous SurveyUsa was taken, has Gallup reflected some loss of support for McCain? Let me see...he was up by 5% during 3 consecutive days and now is up by 2% during 3 consecutive days. Yes I think there has been some loss of support, 5 is more than 2.

So, are you surprise that a poll which had McCain up by 2% at the pick of his bounce, now shows him losing some support? I'm not saying that McCain is down precisely by 4%; however, I don't find irrational that he might have lost his previous 2% edge. I don't know, it could be a tie.

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riverrun:

For all you guys bad mouthing this poll because you don't like the result , check the pollster ratings on 538.com (and these are NOT done on the basis of their matching Nate's bias, but on statistical analysis of their results. SUSA comes in at number 2, behind only Selzer, just above Rasmussen, and way above Gallup.

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NW Patrick:

I'll take even a 4 point Obama deficit in VA heading into election day. With hundreds of thousands of new registered DEMS it could be a shocker on election day. I must live in a very odd part of the country because I rarely meet a person who will admit anyways to supporting McCain.

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Inkan1969:

player:

Actually, that crowd was more like 8000.

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Connor:

carl29,

CLEARLY YOU'RE IN THE TANK FOR SEN. ______!

ROTFLMAO!

You are so deluded! You and all your _____-party friends!

______ is soooo gonna win!!!

It's all over, you ________-philes!!!

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boomshak:

Hey, I'm not concerned about the poll saying Obama is +4. These polls jump around.

But for the poll to show such seismic shifts in every single demographic in one week is just silly.

Worst of all, the poll says McCain got stronger in Northern VA and weaker in Western VA. I mean, it is just silliness.

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zen:

Better news for Democrats

Most of these polls don't include cell phone only users.
In primary, especially in NC, IN, OR all the polls are less favorable for obama than result.... 4,5 percent less than result....
you know why? because youngsters, renters, students they don't have landlines and they are undersampled....

So if it's less than 4 point minus for Obama, Obama is winning.
If you have doubt, you can check with primary polls....

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Connor:

Inkan,

So what: the McCain campaign blatantly lies about crowd sizes. Big deal. Cry me a river!

You're just another member of the LIBERAL MEDIA who's completely out of touch with REAL AMERICANS.

McCain's crew doesn't need to COUNT each member of the crowd! There may be 8,000 "people" in that audience, but hell, that's roughly the equivalent of 50,000 liberals if we're just counting S.A.P.C. (Sheer Americaness Per Capita).

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carl29:

Everyone is entitled to his or her opinion. However, it speaks volume about a person who doesn't know what to answer when confronted with real facts. Everything I have come up with are real, hard facts, nothing else. No slongans or anything of that nature, pure facts and serious analysis of those facts.

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boomshak:

And Obama continues to surge in the DailyKos daily tracking poll.

lol, just lol.

I just read the Rush Limbaugh / Sean Hannity Tracking poll and McCain is up 20! Hooray!

ROFLMAO!

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sherman:

Obama may not be leading in VA if this poll is an outlier, but it is still close as hell and VA is a McCain "must win", as well as Ohio. It doesn't matter what the popular vote is. McCain can have his two or three point lead. Only the electoral college matters and for McCain to have to defend Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico is going to be very difficult.

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Tybo:

"zotz:
McCain is in a bad way. He is forced to defend a 2pt lead while everyone (including Rove) is calling him a liar."


another poster like COnnor.
Half-quotes and bias..

geez

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change:

im worried about PA . that is a must win, i hope rasmussen gives him a nice lead to day- i think he will win VA, people are fed up there

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zotz:

This is Boomshak's methodology. Any poll she doesn't like is either biased or an outlier!

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Connor:

Tybo,

Yes! He is exactly like me! That is exactly how I am!

Tybo, you know me so well!

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boomshak:

P.S., Besides the DailyKos Political Affiliation Sample being totally whack (26% Republicans - 'cha right), they are only polling 362 people per day!

What is the margin of error on that, +-12?

Liberals amuse the hell out of me.

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change:

@ boomshaks

survey usa is one of the most reliable polls period.

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sherman:

I've never seen so much whining about the "liberal media". Are Republicans a bunch of whiners? It seems like that to me. Always an excuse for failure. Never take responsibility for your own actions. Look, you guys lost the House and the Senate. Who is to blame for that? Or are you just calling Americans stupid? God forbid they punish you for being totally incompetent.

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change:

sherman the mccain camp is full of lies, i mean they lie about obama's record and palin, and they are low really low

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Justin:

I think everyone needs to take a step back. Can we all agree that Virginia is a tossup at this point? Can we all agree that this poll is going to look like ancient history once we've had some debates? If so, perhaps we should try not to get so worked up at this point. No "votes" count until early voting begins.

If you want to argue about issues, go right ahead, but arguing about a poll is just silly.

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Connor:

Justin,

Clearly you're not aware that polls taken 50+ days from the election are legally binding. It's in the constitution. Look it up.

All you liberals! There's no such thing as a toss-up state! "Toss-up" just means "republicans playing hard to get!"

Are you questioning the all-seeing, all-knowing daily tracking poll?

Are you?

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mahlers5th:

How does the Bradley effect factor into our interpretation of these polls? Haven't heard anything about that lately.

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Connor:

May Gallup smite all of you liberal heretics!

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Bill A:

This poll is based on 3 TV station polls all in Urban centers. There is some question marks to it

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KipTin:

Why does Obamanation assume that all cell phone users are liberals?

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Tybo:

"Why does Obamanation assume that all cell phone users are liberals? "

it's the college kids.

they forget that its business that drove the cell phone society

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zen:


college students,
rental rooms,
minority,
What group is this?

these are cell phone only users...
quite similar to pro obama group, isn't it?

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carl29:

Ey guys, what a turnoff the name calling that has been going on for the last weeks. It really sounds like Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity. Why not making your point without calling people X, Y, or Z.

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player:

@Stillow:
Hey guy, haven't heard from you all weekend. Watch out for the Sodomites. They are out in full force.

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Whitetower:

Good grief. This poll should be disregared. The sample is of 900 adults -- only 813 respondents are even registered. And only 782 identified as likely voters. Talk about zero validity.

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Whitetower:

Oh, and the nonsense about cell phone-only users and dorm room residents that pollsters supposedly ignore: pollsters factor these in to their estimates (i.e. they know that X% of Y population has no land-line and that Z% of that population having land-lines is for McCain or Obama, etc.)

So please don't be waiting for the phantom hordes of millions of college students -- unforeseen by pollsters -- to be voting for one candidate or another.

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Connor:

Tybo,

"they forget that its business that drove the cell phone society"

Like Democratic Gov. Mark Warner's extremely cell phone business?

The Democrat who's running for senate and beating the pants off the other guy?

Yeah, we liberals...no business sense!

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djneedle83:

ASSHOLES:

Kos is paying reaserach 2000 to use thier polling expertise. The breakdowns from Markos down below.

In blood-red Utah, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Alabama...the repubs will account for much greater than 26% of the electorate, but in Colorado, Ohio, Virgnia, Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa Democrats will enjoy a 4%-7% (or greater) lead in party affiliation.

SIDE NOTES
Ohio has a 900K democrat lead
Colorado democrats are tied with Republicans, but that state doesn't have Southern Ohio..named Alabama.

R2K is generally within a point or two of the following splits in its daily samples:

D: 35
I: 30
R: 26
O:9


That "O" is for "other" or "refused". So essentially, R2K believes independent and voters unaffiliated with either of the two major parties will be about 39 percent of the electorate.

Diago/Hotline features the following splits:

D: 43
R: 34
I: 20


Again, a 9-point advantage for Democrats, so R2K isn't going out on a limb. They have backup from the venerable Hotline.

Rasmussen:

D: 38.7
R: 33.6
U: 27.7

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JFactor:

It's a bit silly for both sides to accuse every poll which shows the opposite candidate leading of being an outlier or biased etc. Sure, there have been bad polls out there but I for one am expecting with much enthusiasm today's Rasmussen polls.

(Check out my blog also if interested - today there's an analysis about Obama's four possible roads to victory: http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com/ )

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boomshak:

Lol,

Djneedle.

You back up a garbage poll by citing another garbage poll?

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faithhopelove:

The curious numbers in this VA poll may cancel-out one another. Obama may not be even among men in VA, but it's at least as unlikely that men and women will vote in equal numbers (as this poll suggests) in VA. In 2004, female voters out-numbered male voters there by about 8%. See:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/VA/P/00/epolls.0.html

Similarly, McCain is likely to win more than 80% of Republicans; but Obama is likely to win more than 88% of African-Americans.

Comments have been made about the swing of independents toward Obama since SUSA's last VA poll (though McCain still leads among these voters). The last SUSA poll of VA was taken during McCain's bounce. Buzz is more likely to influence independents; they have no party loyalty and are therefore more malleable.

One other note: SUSA under-estimated Obama's support in the VA primary. See:
/polls/va/08-va-dem-pres-primary.html

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RaleighNC:

Rasmussen has VA 48-48. We need a closer race in VA, please! lol

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Whitetower:

How can any poll, such as this VA SurveyUSA poll, have validity when nearly 10% of respondents in the sample aren't even registered to vote??? I didn't think that polls that included "adult Americans" (as opposed to registered voters or, better still, likely voters) were even done anymore.

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boomshak:

Rasmussen State Polls out. All BAD news for Obama:

VA: McCain/Obama Tied (told ya SUSA was BS).
OH: McCain by 7
CO: McCain by 2
PA: Obama by 2 (wow!)
FL: McCain by 5

Brutal results for Obama. NY down to 5 and PA down to 2? Deeeeeyam!

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Inkan1969:

I think the Virginia ras results humiliated boomshak. He was going on so obnoxiously about VA swinging McCain, and it turns out to be a tie. That poll burned boomshak.

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boomshak:

Inkan,

No, I knew VA was close, just not the +4 BS from SUSA.

With Northern VA going so liberal, VA will be a battle for sure.

How about this, you take VA and we'll take WA, MI, CO and PA. Deal?

____________________

boomshak:

You know, when the SUSA Polls came out, Pollster was so excited, they posted the results 3 times.

Rasmussen has been out for 45 minutes and nuthin, lol.

____________________

carl29:

I'm glad that I was able to express my opinion, which most of you know by now, it is more than slongans and non-sense.

Let's see what my opinion was today at 1:29 p.m:

"So, are you surprise that a poll which had McCain up by 2% at the pick of his bounce, now shows him losing some support? I'm NOT saying that McCain is down precisely by 4%; however, I don't find irrational that he might have lost his previous 2% edge. I don't know, it could be a TIE."

See how a good analysis can be done by putting craziness and passion on the side?

Just as I argued early in the afternoon, polls show that McCain has being losing some ground since last week. The Colorado poll? Remember that Colorado was the stage of the democratic convention, so it would be the last state in which the Obama bounce will fade. I think that now the electorate in Colorado has sobered up from the Democratic convention and McCain's bounce can be seen. Will those numbers be lasting? I don't know, but if Obama lost 3% to Nader, my guess is that those people will come back home soon.

About Florida, all here know that I live in this state, and I have repeatly say that I think that Obama has a real uphill battle in my home state. Remember that this is a southern state, the oldest state in the nation, and the majority of Hispanics are Cubans, who are overwhelmingly Republican. Everything about this state's demographic works against Obama.

About PA, I really need to see other polls from that state. Recently, the only other pollsters polling the state was Quinnipiac, during the high of the Republican convention, from Sept. 5th to Sept. 9th, and showed Obama ahead by 3%. At that same time, Gallup had McCain at his pick, up by 5%. McCain's numbers have changed ever since, slightly down. I personally will take the PA poll with a grain of salt until other pollsters come out confirming or disputing it.

I bet that other pollsters will throw their hats in PA, inspired by this poll numbers. So, soon we will find out. Ohio? I don't know. Who does it come that Obama is gaining ground in Ohio, with a tougher demographics, and losing in PA, Ohio's neighboring state with a more democratic electorate. My gut feeling tells me not to bet the farm on those PA numbers. Time will tell boys and girls.

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TR in VA:

Boomshak it seems was right after all. The Idea that McCain gained ground in Northern VA... the states most liberal area and Lost ground in the states most conservative seesm very ODD..

sorry Obama folks Obvious VA poll by surves USA is NOT supported by the new Rasmussen poll or any other oll for that matter .

VA is good news for Obama if and only if He holds other Kerry states... whch he may not is the Rasmussen is correct

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Paul:

SUSA is using a 50/50 gender split. In 2004 VA exit poll, split was 46/54 M-F. Using that split, Obama would be ahead 50-45 in Virginia. Unfortunately the rest of the SUSA internals do not match the 2004 exit polls. Using the same modified version of the SUSA poll with the 46-54 split, the poll one week ago would have been McCain ahead 48-47.

Summary: this poll reflects a 6 point change towards Obama (5 point move accounted for by males, 1 point by females).

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tjampel:

@ TR in VA

This result is totally supported by the new Ras poll, which shows McCain gaining in some key swing states (aided, of course, by two adjustments in their party ID formula) such as
FL, PA, and CO but losing ground in OH and VA.
You have to compare apples to apples so look at
where these two respective polls were in their previous iteration and then see what happened in
this one.

Ras VA-- M-1 O+1
SUSA VA-- M-3 O+3

These are two reputable pollsters so let's average the two polls. We get M-2 and O+2.
That's 4 point difference which, averaged over the sample size of the two polls is statistically significant

But wait a minute...
That's accepting the new Party ID numbers. In actuality using the same Party ID from the last survey is a more fruitful way to analyze movement of the two candidates. Doing so we get the following (applying from Ras' own analysis as to the effect of narrowing Party ID difference)Ras says that Obama % should go down about .5 and McCain's % up by the same. Factoring that into the results and recalibrating we get

Ras VA---O+1.5 McCain -1.5
SUSA VA-- M-3 O+3

Averaged together we get a 4.5 spread, which is also statistically significant and a damn good day for Obama.....In VA; he didn't have a great day in PA or CO; Florida was never even, so the previous Ras result was just noise.

If I were Obama I'd focus massively on CO and NV, putting my face and money there and in VA (next to Warner's), and forget about FL (unless a Palin negative backlash among Jews or something similar takes hold) and NC (unless there's some newfound stability in the crazy quilt of polls we've seen. Civitas (R) at M+3 and a Kos-comissioned poll at M +17.

Then I'd park the Clintons in OH and other rust belt states, including WV, which is looking better each day; put money there too.

MN won't go red though it does look scary now. SUSA's numbers didn't budge in two polls, and we have only one other poll showing a serious McCain challenge. I'd wait for Ras here. They were at O +4 last time (8.13). I expect them to show the race at O +3 or +4 this time around. If they show it even or O+1 I'd be a little more concerned, and I think you'd see McCain spend some big bucks at that point.

WI is another story. There's really nothing to look at there, because the only new-ish poll is Strategic Vision, which showed a 5 pt spread on 8.9 and a 3 pt one on 9.6, when the Repub bounce was starting to rev up. I expect new Strategic vision poll to be around +4 O and other polls to be 20% lower for Obama. That gives Obama a 6 point lead if you average the other polls and shave off 20%.

MI is going to stay close, and Obama will probably win, so long as he can push registrations up even higher and get a decent (high 40s or even 50% in the 18-29 demo) to show up along with a slight increase in AA voters. I think moderate and conservative indies and conservative social issue dems may stick with McCain. that's a change in my thinking and it makes it tougher for Obama in this state

PA is probably O +2 or +3 right now and won't get any worse as the election approaches. Look at what happened with Kerry; Obama will beat Kerry by about 2.5-3 points in PA, with a little help from Rendel machine, GOTV, new reg (big Dem advantage there now; not so with Kerry), + slightly higher AA turnout

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