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VA: Obama 50, McCain 46 (SurveyUSA-10/30-11/1)

Topics: PHome

SurveyUSA
10/30 - 11/1/08; 672 LV, 3.9%
Mode: IVR

Virginia
Obama 50, McCain 46
Sen: Warner (D) 59, Gilmore (R-i) 35, Parker (G) 3, Redpath (L) 2

 

Comments
mandalorianarmy:

Anyone notice that the 2 Battlegrounds with no early voting (PA, VA) have been getting slightly closer?

Is it because the unlikely voters from Florida/Ohio/Colorado/Nevada actually voted?

____________________

NW Patrick:


From very conservative pollsters to liberal pollsters McCain losing VA:)

RCP Average 10/23 - 10/30 -- -- 50.5 45.5 Obama +5.0

Mason-Dixon 10/29 - 10/30 625 LV 4.0 47 44 Obama +3
Marist 10/26 - 10/27 671 LV 4.0 51 47 Obama +4
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 774 LV 3.5 53 44 Obama +9
National Journal/FD 10/23 - 10/27 404 RV 4.9 48 44 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/26 671 LV 3.9 52 43 Obama +9
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 52 45 Obama +7
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 601 LV 4.0 49 42 Obama +7
Washington Post 10/22 - 10/25 784 LV 3.5 52 44 Obama +8
Roanoke College 10/19 - 10/26 614 LV 4.0 48 39 Obama +9
VCU 10/20 - 10/22 817 LV 4.0 51 40 Obama +11
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/20 - 10/21 625 LV 4.0 47 45 Obama +2
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 647 LV 4.0 54 44 Obama +10
SurveyUSA 10/18 - 10/19 652 LV 3.9 51 45 Obama +6
Rasmussen 10/16 - 10/16 700 LV 3.0 54 44 Obama +10

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FrankShankly:

Still on the Magic 50 ...

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ricbrig:

I think RCP will remove VA from leaning Obama since the advantage will go below 5% in their average. They haven't updated yet

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NW Patrick:

In '2004 5 polls showed Kerry winning, 15 or so national polls Bush.

Today 20-0 Obama.

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bigsexyshaq:

ricbrig... It's really not that close. Look up other recent polls. It's just not.

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political_junki:

There is a 6 point swing from last SUSA poll in this poll. D38 R 38 is very optimistic for McCain. But still O is at 50% which is good :)

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mysticlaker:

gallup

rv 52-41 - nc
lve 52-43 M + 1
lvt 51-43 o-1 m+1

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Thatcher:

Gallup:

RV O+11
LVT O+8
LVE O+9

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SmarterThanYou:

I trust SurveyUSA a lot. They use a conservative model and are usually spot on. A 4 point lead and the all important 50% mark is very good sign for Obama.

____________________

NW Patrick:

No president has EVER lost the electoral college winning even 3% of the popular vote.

____________________

sunnymi:


Gallup Daily: Obama Continues to Outpace McCain

Registered Voters
-----------------
Obama - 52
McCain - 41

Traditional LV's
-----------------
Obama - 51
McCain - 43

Expanded LV's
-----------------
Obama - 52
McCain - 43

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111664/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Continues-Outpace-McCain.aspx

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iVote:

Typical weekend tightening. GOTV on Tuesday!!!!

____________________

mysticlaker:

The fact that there is no change in RV's is just incredible news. As gallup says, it's all about turnout now. That makes me feel very happy to be in the O camp.

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NeutralNick:

no way, VA is still pretty barock solid for obama, cant believe im saying that but the demographics have really changed in the state

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ricbrig:

Well don't mistake me I really don't care about where RCP puts VA, the 50% mark is the thing to take in consideration.
About Gallup not much movement really.

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Dewey1858:

Somebody needs to study this weird weekend-midweek swinging after the election. Maybe it's completely random, but it sure doesn't seem so.

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political_junki:

2 Days before election and
Gallup:
RV O+11
LVT O+8
LVE O+9

Who could have thought last year tims time, Obama will be in this position...

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BlueInTexas:

As I said before - give McCain all the toss ups, and even give him Ohio. Assuming Obama wins PA, it comes down to Virginia because they started early voting over a month ago.

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BlueInTexas:

As I said before - give McCain all the toss ups, and even give him Ohio. Assuming Obama wins PA, it comes down to Virginia because they started early voting over a month ago.

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DrBossman:

It sounds like PPP has PA and VA polls (and others by tomorrow) coming out tonight. It should be interesting to see if they show any movement from the last time they polled in these places. Tom Jensen has dropped hints that they are NOT bad news for Obama.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/11/big-picture.html

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NeutralNick:

"Who could have thought last year tims time, Obama will be in this position..."

I always thought mccain was a very average national candidate, and if I knew he would pick palin as vp you could not color me surprised.

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deeproy:

Remember, within 5% is steal-able. I fully expect the McCain camp to play the way GWB played in 2000 & 2008. If VA is only 5% average today or tomorrow, I would expect McCain to come out with a < 1% victory.

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

Obviously intrade is not concerned about any tightening since it is still 88 Obama. Movement in numbers is one thing but to make up the deficit McCain has in basically a half day today and all of Monday tomorrow is unheard of.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Everytime we see a tiny bounce for McCain or a state poll from MASON DIXON which leans R some on here FREAK OUT. Let me remind you no pollster holds KING. You have to take the average and look for a few pollsters to move for a trend.

Look at Ohio in '04 compared to '08:

RCP Average | 10/25-11/1

-

-

48.8

46.7

Off Ballot

Bush +2.1
Zogby | 10/29-11/1

601 LV

4.1

49

43

-

Bush +6
FOX News | 10/30-31

700 LV

3.0

50

47

-

Bush +3
SurveyUSA | 10/29-31

816 LV

3.5

49

47

-

Bush +2
Strategic Vision (R) | 10/29-31

801 LV

3.0

48

46

-

Bush +2
CNN/USAT/Gallup | 10/28-31

1111 LV

4.0

46

50

-

Kerry +4
Ohio Poll/UofC | 10/27-31

877LV

3.3

50.1

49.2

-

Bush +0.9
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29

625 LV

4.0

48

46

-

Bush +2
Rasmussen | 10/25-10/31

600 LV

4.0

50

46

-

Bush +4
Clev. Plain Dealer | 10/26-28

1500 LV

2.6

48

45

-

Bush +3
Strategic Vision (R) | 10/25-27

801 LV

3.0

48

47

-

Bush +1

NOW LET'S LOOK AT '08:

RCP Average 10/22 - 10/31 -- -- 48.8 44.6 Obama +4.2

Mason-Dixon 10/29 - 10/30 625 LV 4.0 45 47 McCain +2
Columbus Dispatch* 10/22 - 10/31 2164 LV 2.0 52 46 Obama +6
SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/27 648 LV 3.9 49 45 Obama +4
LA Times/Bloomberg 10/25 - 10/27 644 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 49 45 Obama +4
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 779 LV 3.5 51 47 Obama +4
National Journal/FD 10/23 - 10/27 404 RV 4.9 48 41 Obama +7
Marist 10/24 - 10/26 661 LV 4.0 48 45 Obama +3
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 50 45 Obama +5
Quinnipiac 10/22 - 10/26 1425 LV 2.6 51 42 Obama +9
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 607 LV 4.0 48 41 Obama +7
PPP (D) 10/21 - 10/23 993 LV 3.1 51 44 Obama +7
Politico/InAdv 10/22 - 10/22 408 LV 5.0 52 42 Obama +10

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Pro-America_Anti-America:

The only thing to fear is not any kind of shift of support because there is no time and no surprises yet. The thing to fear is this theory that there will be no undecideds tomorrow and they will have all gone McCain.

____________________

straight talk:

@ Everyone

Do the GOP have a Gotv Strategy? Because all I am hearing is propoganda speech! Early voting numbers talk! And they say McCain is in trouble!

____________________

DrBossman:

@deeproy

Judging by the polls leading up to the 2004 election, what evidence was there that GWB stole the election? In Ohio, for example, several pollsters nailed the final result.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/states/ohio.html

____________________

NW Patrick:

DrBossman good point. Why Obama is looking so strong in OH. He leads in like 10 of the last 11 polls.

____________________

Dewey1858:

@deeproy:
Remember, within 5% is steal-able. I fully expect the McCain camp to play the way GWB played in 2000 & 2008. If VA is only 5% average today or tomorrow, I would expect McCain to come out with a

Only problem with your theory is that McCain can't play the way GWB did in '04 (I'm assuming that's what you meant to write), since the Karl Rove playbook costs more money to implement than McCain has left in the coffers. GOTV advantage is firmly with the Dems this time.

____________________

NW Patrick:

VA in 2004 VS 2008?

Presidential Race
2004 Electoral Votes: 13

Bush

Kerry

Nader

Spread
SurveyUSA | 10/27-29

606 LV

4.1

51

47

-

Bush +4
Times Dispatch | 10/20-26

751 LV

4.0

49

40

-

Bush +9
Mason-Dixon | 10/22-10/25

625 LV

4.0

50

44

-

Bush +6
SurveyUSA | 10/16-10/18

664 LV

3.9

50

46

-

Bush +4
Rasmussen | 9/14-9/27

400 LV

5.0

50

44

-

Bush +6
Mason-Dixon | 9/24-9/27

625 LV

4.0

49

43

1

Bush +6
SurveyUSA | 9/21-9/23

744 LV

3.7

53

42

-

Bush +11
ARG | 9/12-9/14

600 LV

4.0

49

43

-

Bush +6
Rasmussen | 8/1-8/26

LV

5.0

50

45

-

Bush +5
SurveyUSA | 8/20-8/22

730 LV

3.7

49

45

-

Bush +4
Rasmussen | 7/1-7/31

LV

5.0

49

46

-

Bush +3
SurveyUSA | 7/6-7/8

686 LV

3.8

50

45

-

Bush +5
Rasmussen | 6/1-6/30

LV

5.0

48

45

-

Bush +3
Rasmussen | 5/1-31

LV

5.0

47

45

-

Bush +2

AND NOW 2008:)

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 10/23 - 10/30 -- -- 50.5 45.5 Obama +5.0

Mason-Dixon 10/29 - 10/30 625 LV 4.0 47 44 Obama +3
Marist 10/26 - 10/27 671 LV 4.0 51 47 Obama +4
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 774 LV 3.5 53 44 Obama +9
National Journal/FD 10/23 - 10/27 404 RV 4.9 48 44 Obama +4
SurveyUSA 10/25 - 10/26 671 LV 3.9 52 43 Obama +9
Reuters/Zogby 10/23 - 10/26 600 LV 4.1 52 45 Obama +7
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 601 LV 4.0 49 42 Obama +7
Washington Post 10/22 - 10/25 784 LV 3.5 52 44 Obama +8
Roanoke College 10/19 - 10/26 614 LV 4.0 48 39 Obama +9
VCU 10/20 - 10/22 817 LV 4.0 51 40 Obama +11

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fox:
____________________

straight talk:

@ OBama Supporters

You guys are really underestimating The O camp machine! I have not voted for a democrat in yrs and even I can see that this is landslide waiting to happen! I did vote for him because of his pragmatic approach to solving american solutions!

Bush won 04 because of the early voting efforts! Obama is crushing McCain in Early voting! He will likely flip any tie in southern states because he always outperforms his exit poll numbers! That is why VA is going blue!

____________________

RaleighNC:

Y'all are already talking about "stealing" of the election from The One? Amusing.

____________________

carl29:

I am so, so disgusted. I just saw the "Rev. Wrigth" show on a GOP commercial, yuki!!!

____________________

ErnieLynch:

NW Patrick:

No president has EVER lost the electoral college winning even 3% of the popular vote.

---

I respectively beg to differ Pat, but you do have to go back to 1824

Go to http://www.270towin.com/ and change to 1824

John Quincy Adams (D-R)
Electoral 84
Popular 108,740
Andrew Jackson (D-R)
Electoral 99
Popular 153,544
William H. Crawford (D-R)
Electoral 41
Popular 40,856
Henry Clay (D-R)
Electoral 37
Popular 47,531

Footnotes claim

One of only 4 elections (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000) where the popular vote winner was defeated

No candidate received a majority of Electors, Adams elected by vote of House of Representatives


____________________

deeproy:

@Dewey1858

I agree. But if conditions are right, we could see a EV win for McCain without a majority of votes. That's my worry.

I had links to back up my 2004 assumption, but my comments are being monitored?!?!

____________________

Terranus:

if Obama can hold Pennsylvania, he wins the election. PA + CO + NM + IA = 273 without VA.

he needs to seal the deal in PA.

____________________

deeproy:

@DrBossman

I guess putting more than one link in a comment flags them. Makes sence, with Spamming and all.

Here's one: http://www.wired.com/politics/security/news/2004/11/65609

____________________

deeproy:

Here's another:

http://www.securitypronews.com/insiderreports/insider/spn-49-20080930SecurityExpertWarnsOfRiggedElection.html

There's also a Daily Kos article about it. And FARK had a link yesterday.

____________________

Dewey1858:

@RaleighNC:
Y'all are already talking about "stealing" of the election from The One? Amusing.

Who is "y'all?" Does that term absolve the user from specificity?


____________________

carl29:

Guys, today the people from ABC/Stephanopolous even the Republicans said that Obama will win and none of them put him down 300EV.

Same thing in CNN, all those talking heads, Republicans included put Obama winning by over 300EV. Larry Sabato has Obama also winning over 300EV. The only thing I am scared of is Obama people not showing at the polls thinking that it's over. So, please as if all the polls had us 10% down :-)

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NW Patrick:

Odds my friends, odds. Bush won in 2000 after Gore won by 1/2 % of the populat vote. Only time in 80 years. Let's take the WORST case pollster at 2% Obama lead. At 2% a loss is VERY unlikely.

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NW Patrick:

The odds are SO against McCain historically, with polls, etc. I would be SHOCKED if McCain won. If he does, the Bradley Effect is alive and well. Would be the biggest polling collapse in US History. VERY unlikely folks:)

____________________

Dewey1858:

@deeproy:
@Dewey1858

I agree. But if conditions are right, we could see a EV win for McCain without a majority of votes. That's my worry.

That's precisely because the Obama strategy was to break the board open - and they've done it. They've obtained that broadening of Obama's options in exchange for some tighter races in a few states. So they knew what they were doing - do they look worried, do you think?

____________________

NW Patrick:

I love these talking heads. "With all the money Obama's spent why are there so many undecideds..." MY QUESTION - Why can't McCain get them? LOL Why are they still undecided if Obama isn't at least making them think? Silly.

____________________

deeproy:

@Terranus

PA is 100% electronic voting. This makes me wonder if there will be a steal. Even if Obama has a +12 on election day, what would stop them from flipping it to a +1 McCain (besides the possibility of resulting anarchy).

I'm not saying it is a 100% likely scenario (or even 50%), but the possibility exists. Obama needs to have such a lead everywhere that doing something like this would be madness, and would be intercepted / stopped on many levels. There is only one way to make sure... everyone together now... GO OUT AND VOTE!

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carl29:

Guys, today the people from ABC/Stephanopolous even the Republicans said that Obama will win and none of them put him down 300EV.

Same thing in CNN, all those talking heads, Republicans included put Obama winning by over 300EV. Larry Sabato has Obama also winning over 300EV. The only thing I am scared of is Obama people not showing at the polls thinking that it's over. So, please work as if all the polls had us 10% down :-)

____________________

deeproy:

@Dewey1858

Agreed. But Obama needs to be ahead everywhere by every possible measure. Even a thread of a loss may give the GOP the incentive to try to spin the story as "too close to call", then steal the thing.

After the last two elections, no one can blame me for being nervous.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Not that this matters but a little note about RCP. He's ALWAYS used the last 10 polls for his RCP average. Today? The last 11 so he could include the Fox poll:) LOL

____________________

DrBossman:

@deeproy

I am aware of the voting problems, but I just don't understand the argument. Are you then saying that all the pre-election polls from many different organizations were rigged because they knew the final outcome was going to be rigged by Rove? It just doesn't sound very plausible to me.

____________________

RaleighNC:

Shouldn't VA now be yellow with the latest SUSA poll?

"Y'all" = Obama fans who are already looking for excuses. Duh.

____________________

NW Patrick:

Dems are so funny:) The nerves are understandable but we couldn't ASK to be in a better position 2 days before election. This is a torn country. To be up over 6% on average is EXCELLENT. Clinton won his 1st election by 6% and won over 350 electoral votes.

____________________

Dewey1858:

@deeproy:
@Terranus

PA is 100% electronic voting. This makes me wonder if there will be a steal. Even if Obama has a +12 on election day, what would stop them from flipping it to a +1 McCain (besides the possibility of resulting anarchy).

I'm not saying it is a 100% likely scenario (or even 50%), but the possibility exists. Obama needs to have such a lead everywhere that doing something like this would be madness, and would be intercepted / stopped on many levels. There is only one way to make sure... everyone together now... GO OUT AND VOTE!

How many times would you like me to vote to offset the possibilty you describe? Also, are you expecting a military coup if Obama wins?

____________________

mysticlaker:

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/241645.php

Rick Davis:

Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win.

-------------------------------------
Can you say, desperation?

____________________

Pro-America_Anti-America:

@RaleighNC

They may be too nervous but you certainly seem too certain.

____________________

carl29:

@Dewey1858,

The difference between PA in 2008 and OH in 2004 and FL in 2000 is the party in charge in the state. In 2004 in OH, the Governor was a Republican, and in FL it was a Republican named Jeb Bush, yes...Bush's brother.

____________________

Dewey1858:

@Dewey1858:
@deeproy:

In other words, while we can't be overconfident, let's at least act like we remember what the end zone looks like.


____________________

Obama008:

DEWEY1858


PA voting is not electronic.

I live in PA and vote here....

Also seeing as the Dems control the state, we are not going to have any problems just long lines.

____________________

NW Patrick:

RaleighNC are you talking about pollster? Why would it go yellow? Obama's overall lead would still be way over 5%.

____________________

burrito:

I have never been involved in politics (whether you believe or not, I do not care). This election year, I am doing it all. I am following the polls closely, I watch all the political TV programs and I even volunteered (back in February) to the Obama campaign.

With 2 days to go, this is how I see the current state of the race:

The Republican party and the McCain are in deep, deep trouble and they know it. They say that they are going to win this election but their actions say otherwise. It reminds me of the movie "Total Recall" in which some guy is trying to convince Douglas Quaid/Hauser (Arnold Schwarzenegger) that he is actually dreaming and he must wake up. But Arnold's character notices that he is sweating (therefore lying). The same is true with the Republican strategists, they are saying that McCain will win but on the other hand their message tells a different story (i.e. "do not hand the keys to the kingdom to Obama") ... some of them are already discussing "what went wrong" (as I said I have never been involved in politics, but it sounds that someone who is winning would do this) ...

What do you think?

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Obama008:

No Electronic voting in PA, or very little.

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cinnamonape:

"Do the GOP have a Gotv Strategy? Because all I am hearing is propoganda speech!"

I don't think they actually have any ORGANIZED GOTV. They've spent almost all their money. That's why McCain and Palin are using the old "call 10 of your Republican friends, and tell THEM to call ten of their Republican friends" method.

That just gets the same people at church calling one another. And after about the second or third call, they think "Well Bobby Jo just called me, and Sarah called Lois...so our list of ten is now zero". Then they are getting all these irritating robocalls.

That's not outreach, and it's likely to bring out people who aren't within the circles of similar thinkers. It'll bring out people who have already, and were likely to vote anyways.

The real game is in the "discouraged voters", the independents, the new voters (both young, and never voted, or new residents). That's where GOTV is really important.

____________________

NW Patrick:

burrito you are right. We will all be laughing on Tuesday. There is NOTHING to indicate even a slight chance for McCain. Like I've said 1000 times, if McCain wins it would be the largest polling collapse in history.

____________________

NeutralNick:

I haven't seen such delusion since the mcgovern campain, and at least then at least anyone over 21 knew he was going to lose big.

____________________

straight talk:

OBama supporterS! You guys are watchin these polls and freaking out!

Obama is so cool! Everbody is worrying about Pa! I hope you guys are only Tues. night so that I can tell you, "I TOLD YOU SO"! OBama+10 in Pa.

Folks it is about the GOTV machine now! Not poll watching! If the O team is so worried about PA,why is he not going back? His Gotv strategy is crushing the GOp machine at the polls as we speak!

But The O supporters you guys are buying the Bradely Effect, but you do not want to admit it! You guys are willing to suggest that he needs to be up 10 to carry a red state or a swing state!

No one ever said that about Bush in O4!

I cannot wait until Tues. when you see Obama carry every state that he has a lead in!

Just my opinion!

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Dewey1858:

@Obama008:
DEWEY1858


PA voting is not electronic.

I live in PA and vote here....

Also seeing as the Dems control the state, we are not going to have any problems just long lines.

This shouldn't be directed at me - I live in PA, too and am well aware of how it works. I think your point goes to deeproy's.


____________________

NW Patrick:

For McCain to win every single US National pollster would be WRONG. Unlikely:)

____________________

Obama008:

I dont think McCain as a good GOTV program, not nearly as good as bushes was back in 2000, and 2004. You can thank Karl Rove for that.

Obama's GOTV is insane. I get calls every day from unions and supporters, as well as door to door stuff once a week at least.

____________________

PlayingItStraight:

Question:

What candidates, campaign committees, OR party committees are paying, have paid or promise to pay PPP or Strategic Vision? I think this is a relevant question. I think pollsters should have to disclose any monetary interest to people generating "polling averages" or "projections."

Pecuniary interest does strange things to people's objective viewpoints. One reason I do favor the RCP approach -- except, while I think their methodology skews heavily D, RCP should probably include the DKOS/R2K polls.

____________________

deeproy:

@Dewey1858
@DrBossman

I'm not saying that pre-election polling is rigged or you should vote twice. I am simply raising the issue that there is a possibility of a steal. If pre-election polling is low enough or if real time results are low enough, then there is a possibility that a theft will go unnoticed. The motive is there, and so are the tools.

And if we lived in Argentina or Pakistan or Zimbabwe, then I would fully expect a military take-over if Obama won. But since we don't, not so much.

____________________

NW Patrick:

straight talk I agree with you. A dem has NEVER been in this kind of position since Clinton and his polls tightened at the end in 92. He won 6% of the pop vote and 350+ electoral votes. There was tightening at the end, supposed buyers remorse for the new guy, didn't pan out. I know most of these fears are because Obama is black. I can ask those questioning the polls, HOW DID OBAMA WIN THE PRIMARY?

____________________

cinnamonape:

"Guys, today the people from ABC/Stephanopolous even the Republicans said that Obama will win and none of them put him down 300EV."

Anyone know of major networks ever having the audacity to "call" the election BEFORE it has happened. This is a bit upsetting. What they should say is "that if the voters turn out in a way that reflects the polls Obama will win". But to call the election two days before it happens is a disgrace.

Didn't all the networks agree not to "call" the election until the polls closed on Tuesday?

____________________

tjampel:

Obama needs no excuses; Mcain and the Repub will be the ones looking for excuses come the 4th. They already are...ACORN, voter fraud, etc.

Fact is that the polling of some 1 million people between the beginning of the cycle and today shows a clear trend. Statistics don't lie, when there's enough of them to have a confidence level of 97% or so (what Nate's 10,000 daily simulations are showing)

____________________

Obama008:

straight talk

I really hope your right man.

____________________

Dewey1858:

@deeproy:

I'm not saying that pre-election polling is rigged or you should vote twice. I am simply raising the issue that there is a possibility of a steal. If pre-election polling is low enough or if real time results are low enough, then there is a possibility that a theft will go unnoticed. The motive is there, and so are the tools.

As pointed out by carl29, both PA and VA have Democratic governors, which greatly lessens the possiblity of hijinx.


____________________

NW Patrick:

tjampel thank you:) People aren't even making sense here sometimes. 20 something pollsters in agreement. Maybe not in agreement by margin but in agreement. HOMEWORK - Someone show me the election where the winner of the pop vote by 2% lost the election? Go ahead;) Find it.

____________________

deeznutsrepubs:

cinnamon- yes, i agree. they all need to stfu.

____________________

Obama008:

NW Patrick:

I could say Gore Bush 2000 but I dont know how much pop vote GORE won.

____________________

Trosen:

cinnamonape, the network talking heads have always made predictions. In 2004 it was pretty split.

____________________

carl29:

PlayingItStraight,

Strategic Vision doesn't hide their political aliance just like PPP. What do you think the (R) and the (D) stand for? If you want to believe those polls and nothing but those pollsters that's OK with you, but I think it is wrong :-)

____________________

Obama008:

Cinnamon

They are not calling it, they do this every election.

They are just giving there ideas on how the election is going to roll out.

____________________

deeproy:

@Obama008

Electronic voting where I live, which is suppose to be one of those battleground counties in PA. (Don't want to give away too much.) Has been as long as I've lived here, a little over 10 years.

I recently saw a map on one of the leftie news outlets (Kos?) that showed where the electronic voting is. This map showed 100% electronic for PA. If I run across it again today I'll post a link.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

guys, what time do the polls close on the east coast?

____________________

NW Patrick:

Obama008 Gore won the popular vote by 1/2 percent Bush lead in most polls. It was the 1st time in 80 years that a pop vote winner lost the electoral college. My point, it would take literally a 1% election or less for McCain to have a chance at the college. Good luck!:)

____________________

carl29:

@kerrchdavis,

Along the coast polls close at 7:00 p.m, except for Florida that closes at 8:00 p.m. because of the Panhandle

____________________

Obama008:

deeproy,

I live in Bucks county.

Upper middle class area, we dont have electronic touch screen voting machines, only if they changed it from the election in may. I doubt it.

Also Deeproy, how do you think Obama is going to do in your area?

obama will take bucks.

____________________

NW Patrick:

I just had a thought, may offend some of you but I don't care. Why is it so "ridiculous" that people listen to and believe Obama's message of hope and change and right wingers say it's ridiculous and people have blind faith and nostalgia?

Yet many, left and right, sit in church every Sunday listening to a preacher tell them a story of a man who rose from the dead, with absolutely ZERO proof? Aww human nature:) ROFL I find it funny. I'm in a weird mood, sorry.

____________________

straight talk:

I have been looking for the GOP Gotv! I have been looking for reports showin the Evangelicals flooding to the polls! THey flooded the early voting booths in 04. Why not now?

Where is the 72hour GOp Gotv! Reports are starting to show that the youth are starting to get to the booths! But what I was impressed by the early voting stats was the fact that the traditional dems were flooding the polls! O yeah and the AA turnout will make Obama overperform in NC, GA, MO, VA! He will exceed these poll numbers! HE DID IT IN THE PRIMARY!

____________________

Obama008:

Kerrchdavis

They close 8PM in PA. We are the last state to close its polls on the east coast, or one of the last.

____________________

sunnymi:


@kerrchdavis:

Here is a extremely useful map about the poll closing in each state.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/11/state_polls_closing_times.php

____________________

kerrchdavis:

@NW

It seems to me that it would be far more likely for Obama to eke out an EV win while losing the PV than McCain if it came down to Obama losing the PV vote (which obviously isn't going to happen).
The fact that it is mostly red states in play means that, I think, McCain would HAVE to win the PV to win the EV. I just don't see McCain losing the PV by 1% and yet being able to overturn results in VA, CO, FL, OH or PA.

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

I just stopped into the Obama HQ in Minneapolis and saw a lot of confident, smiling faces.

____________________

PlayingItStraight:

To All:

If McCain wins Virginia, he won Virginia.
If Obama wins Virginia, he won Virginia.

Voter fraud has not been an issue in VA in the past and I don't think it will be this time. There maybe some issues that pop up on both sides, but ultimately the state -- er, commonwealth, has an outstanding record for running clean elections.

To the extent there is an issue this year, it may well center around dual registrations ... Virginia's Voter Database is one of the best in the nation. Unfortunately the Rs have already identified more than 5000 college students registered in more than one state ... or so they say ... including at least 40 who have requested ballots from more than one state. Hope this turns out to be false. Especially if the election is close, one way or the other. Of course the R assumption is that they are Ds who dual registered. In VA there is really no way of knowing.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

I'll concede I'm nervous.

Not for a 'steal' (possible but unlikely, the GOP won't play the same card twice)...

nor do I think 2004 was stolen (face it Kerry was a vulnerable candidate and the Rove-machine was at 1000%)...

What does worry me is ultimately the electorate and the age of the sound bite. I admit that Obama has had his share of those but I worry when a campaign uses simple, SIMPLE language to get out their message...

"socialist", "share the wealth", "joe the plumber", "raise taxes"...


This is very much a battle for The Idiocracy. If the GOP somehow manages to win, the Age of Idiocracy will be born.

Damn right I'm worried. So are GOP intellectuals; that's why their actually swallowing their tongues and endorsing Obama or bowing out completely.

____________________

BlueInTexas:

I'll concede I'm nervous.

Not for a 'steal' (possible but unlikely, the GOP won't play the same card twice)...

nor do I think 2004 was stolen (face it Kerry was a vulnerable candidate and the Rove-machine was at 1000%)...

What does worry me is ultimately the electorate and the age of the sound bite. I admit that Obama has had his share of those but I worry when a campaign uses simple, SIMPLE language to get out their message...

"socialist", "share the wealth", "joe the plumber", "raise taxes"...


This is very much a battle for The Idiocracy. If the GOP somehow manages to win, the Age of Idiocracy will be born.

Damn right I'm worried. So are GOP intellectuals; that's why their actually swallowing their tongues and endorsing Obama or bowing out completely.

____________________

mirrorball:

CNN - Montana
McCain 46
Obama 45
Undec 9

(why no Ron Paul? Isn't he on the ballot there?)

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/02/cnn.electoral.map/

____________________

BarackO'Clinton:

I just stopped into the Obama HQ in Minneapolis and saw a lot of confident, smiling faces.

____________________

andrewfromva:

Drudge touting TIPP poll with Mac down 2. This is getting pathetic...

____________________

Obama008:

Mirrorball:

He is on the ballot, I guess CNN didnt ask the voters.

____________________

Trosen:

mirrorball.. Paul certainly is..(despite the fact he tried to have himself removed from it) No idea why CNN didn't include him in their poll.

____________________

carl29:

@andrewfromva,

Let him make his people happy until Tuesday night :-)

____________________

thoughtful:

This reminds me of a lot of the BS the Obama supporters were coming out with in the middle of the McCain Convention bounce.

johncoz put up his trend graph, look at the pollster graph, 538.

McCain has less than 5% chance of winning. You can get a bit better odds with money but its a long shot.

the Obama ground game and GOTV GUARANTEES a Landslide victory.

Even the M-D and the Strategic Vision polls show this.

Rasmussen is forecasting over 300 EVs.

Me- 390+EVs - been there since before the conventions.

____________________

Dewey1858:

deeproy:

Electronic voting where I live, which is suppose to be one of those battleground counties in PA. (Don't want to give away too much.) Has been as long as I've lived here, a little over 10 years.

I recently saw a map on one of the leftie news outlets (Kos?) that showed where the electronic voting is. This map showed 100% electronic for PA. If I run across it again today I'll post a link.

I have the option of filling out a paper ballot which is then scanned. This provides a paper trail in case a recount needs to be done, and is how I usually vote. They encouraged it at my polling place last election.

____________________

Pat:

@NW Patrick:
The odds are SO against McCain historically, with polls, etc. I would be SHOCKED if McCain won. If he does, the Bradley Effect is alive and well. Would be the biggest polling collapse in US History. VERY unlikely folks:)

What if they steal the election by hacking the electronic voting machines??? No one will know because they will blame it on the Bradley Effect.

____________________

laguna_b:

@NW

People beleive because they ahave been culturalized to accept the improbable and relatively discredited religions. Science flourishes in Christian and Islamic countries and yet they ut more value in what they can not observe than what they can.

Perhaps that is why the republicans seem to get such blind faith from evangelicals.

____________________

sunnymi:


@mirrorball

The CNN Montana poll is actually a "poll of polls" - basically an average of the recent polls conducted recently by various pollsters in that state.

____________________

andrewfromva:

@carl29
Sometimes the B.S. is too much to take. I really want to visit Drudge and listen to Hannity the day after an Obama victory. Is that mean?

____________________

mirrorball:

@sunnymi: Ah, didn't notice that. I hadn't read through the whole thing.

____________________

Dewey1858:

@andrewfromva:
Drudge touting TIPP poll with Mac down 2. This is getting pathetic...

I just got some water to rinse my eyeballs and looked at Drudge. He's "touting" the IBD poll in little tiny letters, vs. the gigantic headline he used to trumpet the Zogby poll two days ago. Kinda sad, really, like a puppy that's been smacked on the nose with a rolled-up newspaper.


____________________

McPalinocchioIsAJoke:

November 2, 2008
Strategists predict Obama victory, big gains for Democrats
Posted: 01:15 PM ET

From CNN's Peter Lanier
CNN analysts predict an Obama victory.

(CNN) – With only two days until Election Day, campaign insiders offered up their predictions for how the general election and congressional races will unfold. Speaking on Sunday to CNN’s Wolf Blitzer, the best political team made the following forecasts:

James Carville, Democratic Strategist: Barack Obama takes the election by winning 365 electoral votes; the Democrats pick up 9 Senate seats and 27 House seats.

Leslie Sanchez, Republican Strategist: If John McCain is within four points of Obama in the final polls, there’s a chance for a McCain win. The Democrats won’t pick up 9 Senate seats because Sen. Norm Coleman will beat Al Franken in the Minnesota Senate race.

Paul Begala, Democratic Strategist: Obama wins with a minimum of 325 electoral votes. The Democrats pick up 7 or 8 Senate seats, which gives them the freedom to kick Joe Lieberman out of the Democratic caucus.

Alex Castellanos, Republican Strategist: Obama wins with 318 electoral votes, which he gains by carrying Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. McCain wins Ohio and North Carolina. The Democrats wind up with 59 Senate seats, but Sen. Mary Landrieu, D- Louisiana, loses her re-election bid.

David Gergen, CNN Senior Political Analyst: Obama wins with 338 electoral votes, give or take 20. The Democrats pick up 8 Senate seats.

Ed Rollins, Republican Strategist: Obama wins with 352 electoral votes, including Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, R-North Carolina, loses her re-election bid to Democratic challenger Kay Hagan.

Hilary Rosen, CNN Political Contributor: Obama wins 333 votes—all the states John Kerry won in 2004, plus Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Iowa. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, loses his seat to Democrat Bruce Lunsford.

Donna Brazile, Democratic Strategist: Obama would have 291 electoral votes if the election were today, but makes gains by election night to win the presidency with 343. Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-Louisiana, wins her re-election bid, and Sen. Saxby Chambliss, R-Georgia, may lose in Georgia.

And as of today, the best political team on television has a lot riding on the Louisiana senate race; if Democrat Mary Landrieu wins, Republican strategist Alex Castellanos joked that he’ll buy the whole team dinner.

---------------
MY QUESTION IS : WHAT'S YOUR PREDICTION?
MINE is Obama 270 he'll lose PA but pick VA,NV,CO,NW that are enough to offset the PA loss

____________________

Pat:

I believe that if there was ever a chance that GOP would attempt to steal an election, 2008 is the year...

They can easily blame the discrepancy between the exit polls and actual numbers on the Bradley Effect. I also see the following clues:

- McCain and Davis keep repeating that they are confident they will win despite a 7 point national poll deficit.

- Right leaning pollsters providing the cover by their ridiculously tight polls.

____________________

burrito:

sunnymi wrote:


@kerrchdavis:

Here is a extremely useful map about the poll closing in each state.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/11/state_polls_closing_times.php

Does anyone know how soon after the polls close do they finish the counting for each State or is this unknown? I imagine that the numbers may start coming as soon as the polls close and that projections can be made early (although may be wrong, specially in close races) ...

____________________

carl29:

@andrewfromva,

No, that is not mean at all. Actually, I want to see Hannity's face on Tuesday night :-)

____________________

wayne1:

www.the greenpapers.com also give closing times for polls

____________________

straight talk:

MY prediction: OBama wins 400+ Ev

He steals GA and TEXAS!

____________________

sunnymi:


Some mind blowing and encouraging statistics from the end of early voting in North Carolina

(All numbers are as a % of current RV's)

Overall % Voted - 42.50
Democrats % Voted - 47.25
Republicans % Voted - 40.70
Independents % Voted - 35.40

Despite this massive early vote there are about 320,000 more Democrats than Republicans among those who are yet to vote.

____________________

Snowspinner:

I'm skeptical of the party affiliations seen here (I think it'll be a better than even split in turnout), and more skeptical of the AA vote - I think Obama will do better than 88% in AA vote (Kerry did 87% in VA), and that AA vote will not fall 3% from turnout in 2004 (it was 21% in 2004, and nobody seriously thinks AA turnout is going to be below census levels).

So I'd say this poll is probably under-estimating Obama support by a point or two.

____________________

jonny87:

argh the obama campaign better have everything under control. would of liked to have seen a PA rally this weekend

____________________

deeproy:

@Obama008

Dropped out for a minute. Has some pumpkins to clean.

I don't think Obama is doing all too well with my immediate neighbors. There are 3 McCain signs for every Obama. But as for the GOTV, there is nothing from McCain. Really. Nada. Zip.

I've been supplying food to a local GOTV, and they are seeing hundreds of volunteers. And we had someone drop by about 15 minutes ago from the Obama GOTV with a flier and the standard voting info.

So as for a ground game, it is all Obama all the time.

But my neighborhood is a place where there are lots of city refugees, and in talking with them I get the feeling their motivation is primarily driven by race.

____________________

cinnamonape:

PlayingStraight- Many of those College Students may have applied for absentee ballots because a REPUBLICAN effort to suppress votes (including a Republican who was a Registrar at a major Virginia University) sent out erroneous information stating that students HAD TO vote at their home addresses or they would lose their financial aid!

This was, of course, utter b.s. But I would suspect that it might have led those students, who could NOT return back to their state to vote, to apply for an absentee ballot from their home state.

Thus the "dirty trick" is now being used by the Republicans to suggest "voter fraud".

FACT: They have the names of these students. If they submit absentee ballots in both states they will not have them accepted. But if they have their legal votes suppressed they have a great case for suing the GOP and the people involved in "intimidating" them and denying their right to vote!

____________________

sunnymi:


More interesting statistics from NC

AA % Voted - 51.7
Women % Voted - 44.4

____________________

masselo:

I see mccain and rick davis saying that they gonna win the election while they are 8-10 points down nationally. I dont see how the will unless the steal it from Obama... the obama campaign needs to be very aware of this..

____________________

JCK:

Anyone who is uncertain has not actually looked at the 2004 polls. Kerry was trailing by a couple points in most national polls. He was projected (based on polls) to lose both Ohio and Florida and did. The only state in which the RCP average was wrong was WI, and that was a very, very close state in the end. Had Kerry lost WI (and he came very close), even winning OH would not have changed the outcome of the election.

If you remember 2004, you'll remember that the meme at the time was "the polls are wrong because they are undercounting the youth vote and/or the cell-phone-voters." Guess not.

Obama is polling 5-7 points better nationally than Kerry did. He's up against a much weaker opponent. Democratic registration is way up as compared to 2004. Obama has clear leads in states that Kerry wasn't competitive in (VA, CO, NV), is competitive in states that Kerry never even got close in (see IN, MO, NC, ND, MT, GA), and has locked up states that were very close in 2004 (IA, MN, WI, NM). Traditional swing states like FL and OH are still competitive, but Obama is outpolling Kerry even in those states.

Again, among all the worry and angst I see being posted, please explain how you envision Obama losing this election. What states will he lose (that he needs) and why?

PS. A state where one candidate has not trailed in every single poll since April is NOT really that competitive.

The routes to 270 are clear. The worry-warts are either concern trolls or having problems actually looking at the polls.


____________________

Mike In Maryland:

cinnamonape said...
"Didn't all the networks agree not to "call" the election until the polls closed on Tuesday?"

The networks did NOT 'call' the election today. Various pundits gave their personal PREDICTIONS.

PERSONAL PREDICTIONS of pundits vs CALL by the network. There is a difference. And it is a common practice.

I remember CNN's Crossfire just before the '94 election - Novak predicted a Repig pickup of more than 40 seats. Everyone else predicted a small Repig pickup and tried to laugh Novak off the set. The next week, after the 54 seat switch, everyone, even Novak had st least some egg on their face.

____________________

masselo:

I see mccain and rick davis saying that they gonna win the election while they are 8-10 points down nationally. I dont see how the will unless the steal it from Obama... the obama campaign needs to be very aware of this..

____________________

sunnymi:


More interesting statistics from NC

AA % Voted - 51.7
Women % Voted - 44.4

____________________

cinnamonape:

Obama had a rally in Columbus this morning...60,000 people.

Palin had a rally in Latrobe Pennsylvania...perhaps 1000 people showed up, and that's according to the local John Mellon Scaife rag.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08305/924374-100.stm

____________________

straight talk:

Republican supporters are predictin massive electorial shifts and the Obama supporters are conceding all the swing states and red states to McCain!


HILLARIOUS!!! Obama is ultra confident, but man his supporters are crumbling under pressure! Where is the HOpe?

THe M camp play into the O camp GOTV strategy! Partisan pollsters did as well! He wanted his supporters not to think this race was over and go and vote!

I am an independent votin for Obama, but even I saw this strategy! The fierce urgency of now! And I tell you what it is showing up in the early voting!

____________________

lhtk:

sunnymi's link re poll closing times didn't bring up anything for me for some reason. This one is the one I'm currently using: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closing.phtml?format=ec

____________________

Frenchie_75:


Here in MN, we had obama people coming a the door but mccain volunteers...nothing so far...interesting

____________________

sunnymi:
____________________

Mike In Maryland:

A major problem with the TPM poll closing map:

The first two states (IN and KY) are shown as closing at 6:00 pm. That is technically correct, but it is 6:00 pm LOCAL time. Both states are in two time zones, so the final polls close at 7:00 pm EST. Other states, such as ND, SD, ID, TX, TN, also are split. Some states close at a certain time LOCAL (asynchronously), other states close at a certain time of a specified time zone (synchronously).

The Greenpapers spells it out much more clearly than TPM:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closing.phtml?format=ec

____________________

Austin:

Of 7 yellow states,
Obama will eventually win NC FL
McCain will eventually win MT GA
Other 4 (ND, MO, IN) are real toss up.

____________________

DrBossman:

@masselo:

I see mccain and rick davis saying that they gonna win the election while they are 8-10 points down nationally. I dont see how the will unless the steal it from Obama... the obama campaign needs to be very aware of this..
--------------------------------------------

That's called 'blowing smoke up people's a---s. Do you think they're gonna come out and say "we are losing"

____________________

colorado resident:

If you don't know about what Palin has done in Alaska, you really should read this
http://mudflats.wordpress.com/2008/09/04/a-letter-about-sarah-palin-from-anne-kilkenny/

The republican ticket is way too dangerous!

____________________

Jaq:

Does anyone happen to know how many polls RCP keeps for its average, or if it's even constant? Because, yeah, that list is starting to get awfully long. Almost as if the Fox poll is being held on to...

____________________

carl29:

Jaq,

I think that Nate Silver previously discussed that problem about RealClearPolitics, which is a Conservative run website. They don't seem to have a constant policy. Nate mentioned the case of ARG polls, which RealClearPolitics used to not take into account, until they started to show good numbers for McCain, then now they are included. It seems that they decide what to they into account depending on how they want the numbers to look like :-)

____________________

sunnymi:


Looks like Rasmussen is polling PA every day now :-)

Rasmussen - PA
Obama - 52 (+1)
McCain - 46 (-1)

____________________

Obama008:

Sunnymi I heart you for telling me that.

____________________

Trosen:

It's not much different from Fox and the other right-wing talking heads before the 2006 Congressinal elections. Remember they were touting Rove's "real math."

____________________

McCain and Palin have NO plan for the economy and NO plan to end this war in Iraq. A Republican is a Republican. I don't trust McCain and Palin.

Let us not forget the stolen election in 2000 when Bush won by a 5 to 4 vote in our U.S. Supreme Court. Obama and Biden need every vote that they can get. Tell your friends and your family to vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Tell your entire block where you live and have a car pool to the polls and vote for Barack Obama on Tuesday!

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN ON NOVEMBER 4TH!

____________________

enadknock:

how about this theory for the race "tightening"? this past week, the dow jones industrials index went up over 1,000 points. i wonder if mccain would have moved this far up in the polls if the dji fell another 1,000 points?

____________________



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