Pollster.com

ouch for McCain.

holy crap batman!

WOW.

Well, I live in VA, and though I think they're giving Obama too big of a lead, I'd say the lead is there. I'd put it closer to 3-4% though, but that's just my personal opinion.

SNAP

No freakin' way. If this true, the election is over.

If McCain loses VA, his path to 269 is very, very narrow indeed.

If McCain loses VA by this much, OH, FL, and NC are going Obama almost certainly.

12 pts in VA? I likemthe sound of it, but it's got to be an outlier, 6-7 seems about the max right now.

I'm with Micheal on this one, take with a grain of salt.

From a strategy standpoint, this must be why McCain is pulling out the kitchen sink. The refrigerator must be next.

The game is over kids...

Let's put Georgia on the map in 2008. The Senate race is tied and maybe Obama can sneak one out if the black turnout hits 30%. The early voting numbers are sensational and close to 40% black turnout.

Keep up the good work Obama folks.

I love how people from the state being polled somehow know the REAL percentages. I'm from Alaska and it's more like 3-4% here, yup....

Even if this is only half-right (a distinct possibility given the MOE), it is still excellent news for Obama and very dispiriting for the Republican ground crew there -- which has been raising the alarm recently.

This may be the death knell for the McCain camp. Combine with the SUSA just out.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=00f2d8fb-6a3b-425d-9f27-21df796e8fe5&c=77

Not only is BO ~+10 in VA, the 'may change mind' is only 11% and the undecideds are 1%. The demo. dist. looks okay. If VA goes, it's all over, forget about FL and OH.

Angry Alaskan: I was making the point I don't think his lead in VA is that big, I want Obama to win VA, and I think he will, I just think that amount is wrong. In this particular region of VA, which isn't even in the southern half, there's quite a bit of McCain support, so I'm not counting the chickens before they're hatched. Sorry if my caution offends you.

12% with 4% MOE could be as little as a 4pt lead @95% CI. That seems more valid.

I doubt Georgia will flip, but just like Mississippi, it's getting close. Latest poll is from Research 2000 and shows Obama within single digits:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/6/1152/98507
McCain 50
Obama 43

@AngryAlaskan

3-4% O or McC? Maybe Alaskans just want to see Palin out ;)

Wow, too good to be true. But McCain now has to spend valuable cash just to defend traditionally red real estate such as VA, NC and MO, not to mention holding on to FL and OH. Having laready lost IA and (most likely) NM and CO.

3-4$ was too pessimistic of a estimate though, your right on that, so I take it back. Happy?

52% said the most important issue, to them, is the economy/jobs. These voters are 55-30 for Obama (page 33).

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL_Virginia_Tables.pdf

this number looks to big,but obama should win va

Muuuuahahahahahahahahaha.... ITS OVER!

Mother of God.

This does seem like too high of a number for VA. But Obama is rapidly moving ahead in this all important state. Ras has a poll comming out at 6pm. We can see just how much momentum Oabama has in that poll.

GRAIN of salt??? The new SurveyUSA has it at 10 !!

Thats one big grain

While I strongly doubt that Obama's numbers are that high in VA I wholeheartedly hope that this poll would be able to shut both boomSPIN and kiptin up for good

Wow TWO VA polls at 10+.

SurveyUSA has Obama 53% McCain 43% here ..so it fully confirms this poll

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=00f2d8fb-6a3b-425d-9f27-21df796e8fe5

Even before this poll, 538's project was 52/47.1 with an Obama win in VA being 81% probable (despite ARG and Mason-Dixon). Rasmussen releases a new VA poll at 6pm. Their last had Obama at +3, if that grows then it's close to curtains for McCain, I would have thought.

KipTin and boomer can spin this any way they want but there is not way this is good news for McCain.

If he loses VA it's over. He won't have to worry about CO or NH.

SUSA is also double digits (Obama +10). The state is gone. I guess calling American voter communists is not a winning strategy.

This proves the point i have been making all along: CNN/TIME SETS THE TREND THAT ALL POLLS FOLLOW!!! they came out with obama +9 last week, they came out with florida for obama +5 they came out with a tie in NC then all other brands followed!

Oh Snap!!

Time for McCain to suspend his campaign to work on the serious issue facing the nation.... Obama winning the presidency!

McCain is willing to lose an election to win an election!

McCain deserves to be behind in Va. He really hasn't campaigned in the state, the local GOP has been begging him to campaign in the state, instead of taking weekends off....he should have been campaigning. Maybe McCain is too old. From what I see he is being totally outworked and frankly deserves to lose. Why have Palin in Ca over the weekend? What a dumb campaign.

McCain's 13 minutes of fame:

http://www.keatingeconomics.com/

Thought. Could it just be that the MSM that Palin so maligns has actually given her a break with their generally positive debate anaylsis? Seems as if these plummeting numbers for McCain are come after the VP debate. Might people actually have gotten the same feeling that I did, that this woman is totally unable to handle the job of President in such difficult times? While the stock market crashes she sneers about putting her "heels on and taking the gloves off." This isn't the WWF we are talking about Governor. Go see if you can star a reality TV show after the election.

I'd love to put weight on this poll but it's terribly flawed. It's overwhelmingly urban, female, much to high #s of young voters as compared to older, party ID is way too high + Dem for the whole state. It's not worth much besides what we already know, young and urban voters trend heavy toward Obama.

Viperlord:

Sorry if I came across as aggressive. I mean, everyone does it (well, it's kind of hard for me to sadly). But I actually agree with you that it's probably not anywhere close to double digits (I'd say 5-6%) :)

The SUSA poll has a DEM advantage of +9. I haven't looked at the registration numbers but I believe the Dems and Reps should be evenly divided. And I don't think they have released the Suffolk internals. I think it is very plausible that B.O. is up but not by this much.

From today's SUSA poll in VA, which shows 53/43:

:McCain no longer leads in any region of the state. In Northeastern VA, which includes the DC suburbs, Obama leads by 24 points. In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8. In Southeastern Virginia, Obama leads by 11. In the Shenandoah, where John McCain led by 24 points one month ago, Obama and McCain today tie."

Obama +10 in new SUSA VA poll too:

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/10/06/as-mccains-lead-among-white-virginians-shrinks-so-too-his-chances-of-holding-the-states-13-electoral-votes/

Obama 53%
McCain 43%

All McCain and the GOP have going for them at this point is all those voting machines.

the McCain/Keating 5 video is out!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g72BuIvMbWY

"The SUSA poll has a DEM advantage of +9. I haven't looked at the registration numbers but I believe the Dems and Reps should be evenly divided. And I don't think they have released the Suffolk internals. I think it is very plausible that B.O. is up but not by this much."

Virginia does not register by party.

Maybe McCain internal polling is telling his campaign differently. After all his campaign is headquarted in Va.

@ VermontWisdom:
"This isn't the WWF we are talking about"

LMAO!

The SUSA VA poll also shows McCain winning 13% of AA
Is it a dream come true?
Not even close my friend

This is Suffolk's first poll in VA so it is difficult to get a fix on their polling here by comparing previous.

Angry Alaskan: Agree, and no problem. I do find it doubtful McCain isn't leading in the Shenandoah area (I've been there, and no place with that many Jim Gilmore signs is going to be backing Obama, lol), but I certainly see Obama winning or keeping it close elsewhere.

@McShame

The SUSA party weightings are:
Rep 30% Dem 39% Ind 25%

WOW the CNN +9 in this state isn't "Crap" after all?:)

This is Suffolk's first poll in VA so it is difficult to get a fix on their polling here by comparing previous.

PA-John is right, but there has been a documented flood of new registrations (as with many other swing states) and they are overwhelmingly registering as Democrats in those states. VA is likely the same.

Boomshak - Where are you?

Again, our offer to come to walk away from the darkside of the force is open. Turn away, like Darth Vader. Do you remember the smile on Anakin's face when Luke took his helmet off?

That could be just like you. All you have to do is reject the Emperor and Darth Palin....

Paint it blue !!!

@KipTin

"KipTin:

This is Suffolk's first poll in VA so it is difficult to get a fix on their polling here by comparing previous."

You have missed another one baby : The SUSA VA also shows +10
Please let me know how you spin this one
I look forward to reading your spin ...
LMAO!!

Look as if this poll was overly focused on Urban centers.

Anyway, outlier. Next.

@boomshak:

"Look as if this poll was overly focused on Urban centers.

Anyway, outlier. Next."

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH..... you are so funny...

Obama 50-42 Gallup - McCain LOSES 1..

Theire little "tease" yesterday was horse-puckey.

This is what has been under estimated in every poll this election.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110971/Young-Voters-08-ProObama-Mindful-Outcome.aspx

Perhaps Obama's locally publicized "I'm not going to take your rifles, I'm not going to take your pistols,..." made the Western VAians less fearful of BO, making it easier to vote economy.

(That quote is a paraphrase)

Just released
Gallup Daily: Obama Leads 50% to 42%

KipTin and boom please go home your spins/predictions are getting more and more irrelevant on this blog

McCain / Palin / Boomshak

Gallup O + 8

Fail

@Save US

Don't worry he said Gallup was going to show more tightening in the race today.

Well it was 50-42. McCain -1. Nice and tight for your boom?

Gallup Daily: Obama Leads 50% to 42% NEW October 6, 2008
Barack Obama leads John McCain among registered voters across the country by a 50% to 42% margin in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 3-5, the tenth straight day in which Obama has held a statistically significant lead.

@BOOM

Notice they said "statistically significant lead," not statistical tie.

For the record, I do not like the "fight fire with fire" stuff the Obama camp is doing with the Keating 5 video and whatnot. I think they'd be better served to stay out of the gutter as long as possible and let McCain wallow in the slime by himself. I think it's a bit of a knee-jerk reaction. It kills the "high ground" argument. although, it is much more tangible slime to throw with the Keating stuff than the "guilt by association" Obama-Ayers stuff they're desperately trying to dredge up.

I don't actually remember KipTin predicting Gallup tightening, I thought that was all boomspin and his crap.

Boom, you were about 4 points off your prediction. You almost nailed it. So if the first two days of the 3-day tracker showed "slight tightening", I wonder how much B.O. got yesterday to boost his 3-day average to +8.

haha.. well Boom predicted 4.. he was only off.. by 1/2. Palin + feces throwing = wider lead for Obama. Keep up the good work. Again, just wish Obama wouldn't retaliate just yet.

Holly mother of god....I thought this was a red state.

Not many McCain stickers in my parts...and my neighborhood is lily white and outside of the beltway suburban.

Guys

We maybe looking at an historic landslide.

We haven't see such polling numbers like these since LBJ bashed Goldwater(R)Az in 1964.

@Boomshak
70 million Americans turned on their TV for the VP debate and Palin broke the "Do No Harm" rule.
They'd rather an intelligent calm black President than a 72 year old erratic one!

I agree with you Trosen, I think they're trying to scare McCain into backing down with the Ayers crap. At this point, he doesn't have much to lose, so I can't predict what he'll do.

Our offer is open Boom. Renounce the dark side and come with us on a journey of good...

@Trosen

I'm not sure that it will be a slime attack by Obama. I'm trying to watch it right now but it isn't buffering correctly.

Remember this isn't a character attack like John McCain cheated on his wife or Obama is a terrorist. This is a factual account of how John McCain handles a financial crisis. There is a subtle but important distinction there. I think that people will notice.

Beside it goes back to the argument that you throw attacks to get people who support you to support you more. Right now the number of people in the Obama column is much higher than those in the middle or in the McCain column. It is a great time to launch an attack and firm up those supporters.

@Trosen

I agree. Obama did not have to go negative. It will give the McCain camp cover for their nasty ads. It would have been smarter to stay with his original tactic: show that McCain is desperate and does not want this election to be about issues but about continuing to tear this country apart. "Country First" my @ss.

that's what i am talking about baby - mcsame is in trouble - he is running the ****est campaingn ever - now he wants to talk about ayers but not the economy- his stuid behind- and BTW can you believe sarah palin was campainning in california last sunday - wowwwwww - i am loving this!!!

Obama/Biden 08

@mysticlaker

loved "the Emperor and Darth Palin" ... woke up the cat I was laughing so loud :-)

Let Sarah Palin speak! The more gibberish that comes out of her mouth, the more that intelligent people are frightened which = more money donated to Obama and more people motivated to volunteer. She is the best thing that Obama could have ever hoped for. If so much wasn't at stake for mine and my kids futures, she would be comical - oh wait, she already is!

Looking forward to the state polls from Rasmussen.

New polling will be released tonight at 6:00 p.m. Eastern with statewide results from Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Virginia.

This is the main reason is behind: he has yet to come with a plan to address any middle class concerns.

It is all coming together!! Let us hope – pray if you are so inclined – that the racist factor in the vote will be smaller than some fear AND that in any event it will be way overbalanced by tremendously large numbers of black and young voters.

Sure, it is the economy, stupid. But it’s many more things too. Dismay leading to shock leading to disgust and deep anger over the Palin pick and the realization that McCain is not only cynical he’s reckless with this country. I was really pleased and comforted to see that so many saw through the Palin charade at the so-called debate and considered Biden the “winner”. Indeed, he was by any thoughtful measure. And, it also is a genuine and growing recognition that Obama is the “real thing” and has the qualities to become a truly inspirational and fine leader.

I suspect that the “boys” have told McCain that it is more than just likely he is going to lose and that he has a choice – to either go down and out gracefully or to grope for the groin and wildly hope for the best. I unfortunately think he’ll chose the latter And, thus, join the Atwater, Rove, Bush (both of them) pantheon.

Tain't gonna work this time!!!

TrueBlueDem

McBush's brother referring to people in the Northern VA suburbs as communists is not going to help their cause either.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/05/mccains-brother-calls-vir_n_132011.html

PA-John said...
"Virginia does not register by party."

True, but the Washington Post says ". . . of the 310,000 new voters in Virginia, a disproportionate share live in Democratic strongholds."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/05/AR2008100502524.html?hpid=topnews

As an example, Fairfax County (very blue) had an increase of 30,696 in total number registered to vote this year. Total number of registered voters in Fairfax on 9/30 was 657,393.

Arlington County (very blue) had an increase of 13,933 in total number registered to vote this year. Total number of registered voters in Arlington on 9/30 was 139,638.

Alexandria City (very blue) had an increase of 8,108 in total number registered to vote this year. Total number of registered voters in Alexandria on 9/30 was 93,499.

Those three jurisdictions total more than 52,000 net new registrations alone. And all are expected to go at least 3-2 for Obama.

There is another choice.

http://www.baldwin08.com/

Get the word out