Pollster.com

Say, it right-wingers!

Scream "outlier!"

Tell us how SurveyUSA (along with Gallup, Rasmussen, Research2000, Selzer, PPP, Quinnipiac) are "jokes"! And how the only accurate pollster is the web-poll at The Weekly Standard's web site!

Not a big change, but I bet a lot of people thought the last poll was an outlier, and that seems very doubtful for two polls in a row.

What profits it a McCain to win Colorado if he lose VA?

I've always thought that VA would be easier to flip than OH. The reason being is that VA has not been heavily contested in any recent presidential elections, unlike OH which has been the #1 and #2 most closely contested state in the last two elections. So OH voters are already used to being fully engaged and they have been pushed for heavy turnout in the past, and there should be less movement as a result. VA however has a large AA population that could very well outperform, with heavy voter registration drives and a large and growing younger, well educated, professional population. You give these people hope and the race can surely swing 10 points between the parties in just 4 years.

I also think that Palin plays better in OH than she does in VA. She may be a benefit in OH, but she is probably a detriment to McCain in VA. The number of college grads is the key.

College graduates as a percentage of population is a huge predictor of whether a state votes Democrat or Republican for president. Kerry only lost something like 3 states in the top 20 in college graduates. Those states are all in play this cycle.

Each side is getting their share of leading polls in VA--it is one of the TRUE tossup states unlike all the yellow nonsense you see on the front page of this site.

@RealityCheck

I think you're correct in saying that many of the yellow states on this site aren't "truly" tossups, because they have a history of polling close but always breaking for a particular side (in recent elections). However the color-determination formula here is completely empirical, and so it reflects the current polling without regard to human intuition.

I rather like things that way, since then this site is a data source from which one can apply one's own human intuition, rather than having the data pre-filtered through someone else's intuition.

brambster

So your saying the dumber the voter the more Palin helps McCain. I just traveled through several red states last week on business and the dumb voter has always helped the GOP. In fact the GOP counts on it...

@macsuk

Of course! Without the "low information voter" (best...euphemism...ever), the Republican party would be dead.

I do wonder often why areas of the Nation with higher populations of voters with college educations vote DEM on average? Hmmm... Educated people voting DEM. I wonder...Hmmmm

@NW Patrick

Clearly it's because they're elitists.

@ Bramster

Would love to see that list of most states with highest % of college grads. Do you have a link?

Been having an ongoing debate with my McCain-supporting dad about whether Dem or GOP voters are more highly educated. I told him to just go to any college town and he'd have his answer, but he wants something more concrete.

Here's the way I see it from the "ground" in Virginia. I am a volunteer precinct captain for Obama with a team of 10 volunteers. Our precinct, one of 85 in the city of Virginia Beach, is traditionally conservative, probably leaning 60-40 GOP. Having phoned and canvassed hundreds of voters in the precinct, I can report that it's about 50-50 right now. As far as the "ground game," I have registered more than two dozen new voters, almost all young and/or AA. I also have been distributing absentee ballot applications and today took my first voter in for early voting, which started today in the state. I hope to personally account for at least 50 voters getting to the polls or casting absentee ballots for Obama in this election. And there are thousands of Obama volunteers just like me working in the state. We are going to get out the vote in record numbers and turn this state blue. FYI, I am a retired editor for a major city newspaper and am not easily deluded as to what is happening in Virginia.

I live in Richmond, VA and my sense on the ground is that change is in the air. In my traditionally conservative part of the state, you see about 10 Obama signs and bumper stickers for every McCain one, which would *never* have been the case 10 or 15 years ago. VA has a lot of college grads who flock to N. VA for work in the District and many of the educated Republicans that I've talked to are disenchanted with Palin and think McCain is dazed and confused on a lot of issues. Still, some of them, inexplicably, are still going to vote the McCain ticket. It's going to be a tight race here,but I think Obama's got the momentum. I'll be doing my small part to keep that momentum up through November!

Thanks for your report, dreamtimer. Keep up the hard work in Virginia Beach.

lets stop with uneducated voter=republican crap. it's really condescending & unfair. take a look at the demographics from the '04 elections. voters who made less than 50,000 voted majority dem. the poorer people & the less educated are virtually the same. while people who made over 100,000 voted republican.

Top 10

State (District of Columbia not included)

State - Percent of population older than 25 with bachelor's degree or higher - Median Income(Rank)

Top 10

Massachusetts 35.8 $54,617 (8)
Colorado 34.7 $52,011 (11)
Connecticut 34.6 $57,369 (5)
Maryland 34.5 $58,347 (2)
Virginia 32.2 $54,301 (9)
New Jersey 32.1 $59,989 (1)
Vermont 32 $48,508 (16)
Minnesota 30.6 $56,084 (6)
New Hampshire 30.3 $58,223 (3)
Washington 30.2 $50,885 (14)

Bottom 10

State (District of Columbia not included)

Percent of population older than 25 with bachelor's degree or higher

Median household income & (rank)

Oklahoma 21.9 $38,895 (43)
Tennessee 21.5 $39,524 (41)
Louisiana 21.3 $36,814 (46)
Alabama 21.2 $38,180 (44)
Indiana 21 $43,735 (32)
Nevada 19.5 $48,314 (17)
Arkansas 19 $35,591 (48)
Mississippi 18.7 $34,508 (50)
Kentucky 18.6 $37,566 (45)
West Virginia 17 $35,234 (49)

http://encarta.msn.com/encnet/departments/elearning/Default.aspx?article=mosteducatedstates

time to color VA light blue

That list is pretty interesting - no wonder Colorado and Virginia are purple and getting more and more blue by the day.

btw, just think of this electoral map in a few years when Warner and/or Webb is on the top of the ticket. Turn Virginia bright blue and make W.Va and N.C. very viable.

Many well-educated people are low-information voters. They are too busy to read the newspaper or they feel that currents events (especially international matters) have no impact on their lives and jobs. Well-educated low-information voters are as easily manipulated by deceptive political ads as poorly-educated low-information voters.

Another 50+1 poll for Obama. It's simply unrealistic to think that McCain can make up ground with undecideds when Obama is polling greater than 50%.

Survey USA, by many accounts, is the most accurate/#1 ranked pollster. BAD BAD BAD BAD news for the Thugs!:)