10/18-19/08; 652 LV, 3.9%
Obama 51, McCain 45
Sen: Warner (D) 60, Gilmore (R) 36, Parker (G) 1, Redpath (L) 1
This poll doesn't give Obama much a lead at all when you consider the margin of error. Libs are obviously getting desperate, that's why you're seeing so much negativity out there.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:32 PM
Turn VA blue! Let's break the curse and vote Senator Obama into office.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:41 PM
Do you know what does Margin of Error mean?
Obama is 2% OUT of margin of error. I have no faith in your IQ but maybe your cousins husband from Iraq can explain how big is that to you.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:43 PM
alankeyesisawesome's f5 key must be wearing out.
Anyone taking bets that he actually IS alan keyes?
I think so.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:44 PM
SUSA has trouble polling well in the high AA areas of the south. Seeing them register this number bodes very well for Obama.
A 6 pt lead in a Survey USA poll is quite favorable for Obama.
Obama will be helped by the popularity of Warner and Webb. Does it ensure a victory for Obama in VA? NO...but along w/ Powell's endorsement it can't hurt.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:45 PM
Looking good. Keep it up, Virginia; we're counting on you.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:46 PM
HAHAHAHAHA Alankeyes, I know you are a democrat, because no Repub is that stupid!!!
I'm getting more and more confident in my state. Shows you how sad the McSame campaign is that he can't get ahead in a state that hasn't voted Dem since LBJ.
If SUSA, which systematically undercounts cellphone users, has Obama up 6, we should be painting Virginia dark blue any day now. Gov. Tim Kaine sounds pretty confident Virginia will go for Obama, and he wouldn't say so unless the numbers are there because as a first-term governor who won by a whisker he's got a lot on the line. I'm pretty confident, too. But now is no time to let up. Landslide = mandate, and mandate = realignment. Let's knock the Repugs so silly it takes them a generation to recover.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:47 PM
Oh yeah with Obama leading in every swing state, $150M raised in September, and Powell's endorsement I am feeling very desperate.
Hey, you were saying a couple of threads back that Ohio is a "pro-American" state. What is an "anti-American" state?
How about, one with a secessionist movement=Alaska=Todd=Sarah=fail.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:48 PM
Tim Kaine predicted that Obama would break the curse, and said Powell's endorsement would definitely help here. We'll see.
I bet McCain wishes he'd spent a lot more money getting hillbillies registered. Dumbass.
Actually, Kaine hasn't got anything to lose really, because in VA we elect the Governor for one term, they can't serve consecutive terms.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:51 PM
Two points outside the MOE isn't much of a lead...look for the campaign to swing McCain's way soon...VA is a must win state and Obama's attacks on Joe the plumber aren't playing very well there.
MOE will swing McCain's way due to the Bradley effect, which I'm really hopeful is the case.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:52 PM
Nate Silver, along with a couple of other pollsters, and the campaign manager for his opponent, have pretty thoroughly debunked the Bradley effect. And McCain's campaign smearing parts of VA they don't like isn't playing well either, certainly not as well as Joe the plumber being debunked. Fail.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:54 PM
Rasmussen reported today that its latest survey had Obama up 54%-44% (700 LVs by phone, October 16). Don't know how pollster.com missed it...
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:55 PM
" What is an "anti-American" state?
No one finds your SEXIST attack on McCain's family funny...the fact that you laugh at your own joke just drives this home.
I meant Palin's family.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:56 PM
There was no attack. He stated a simple fact. If the ReTHUGlicans want to play guilt by association, they'll have to reap the wind they sow.
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:57 PM
geez , thoe only bad thing about obama smacking mcsames fanny today is boomcrack hides under his alankeys alias. lol!
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:58 PM
geez , the only bad thing about obama smacking mcsames fanny today is we dont get to hear from boomcrack because he hides under his alankeys alias when things go bad. lol!
Posted on October 20, 2008 3:59 PM
I'd rather be associated with a candidate with very weak links to the Alaskan Independence Party than with a candidate that has strong links to terrorists.
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:00 PM
MOE works both ways...I chose to think this means Obama us up by 12.8%.
MOE is applied to both results in a poll. Obama might be 3.9% higher or lower than 51%, McCain might be 3.9% higher or lower than 45%. Obama is NOT ahead outside of the MOE on this poll...
Where is boomshak? Good polls, no boomshak, only alanwalkswithdinosaurs.
Interesting, very interesting...
I am just about 100% sure that alankeysiswawesome is just ****ing with you guys. boomshak and kip, however, are genuine idiots.
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:02 PM
@ alankeyes moron
You are an idiot. VA is not a must win for Obama. It is a must-win for McCain. In fact, McCain must defend ALL of IN, OH, FL, VA, NC, MO, CO, NV in order to win.
Obama? Only has to win 1 of the above (or CO and NV).
Get it? Peace out neocons.
As I said, the bradley effect will take it's toll on Obama's campaign, which is great news.
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:03 PM
I'm predicting that of the swing states, CO, VA, FL, NV, and NC will probably go Obama, and possibly ND, MO, IN as well. I want to see some more polling in those states.
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:04 PM
Forgot OH as a possibility, my bad.
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:05 PM
When you see a Republican drowning in the tidal wave of blue paint throw them an anchor.
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:06 PM
What makes you think that? I think you may be right but I'm curious about your take on the situation.
Think he's just a little too "Flat Earth Society?"
DARK BLUE VIRGINIA YEAH!
This might be one of those "do you remember where you were" moments in my life. A dark blue Virginia for a AA Presidential candidate.
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:09 PM
Wow... : )
Hmm.. they just turned VA dark blue and yet Washington state is still light blue? I know they base it on polls alone, but that just doesn't feel right to me. I HOPE VA is safe for Obama but hard to feel that confident...
You might be right Dwarf. Oh, and have a looksy. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/if-bradley-effect-is-gone-what-happened.html Wave bye-bye to the Bradley Effect.
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:11 PM
Guys, does anyone else think alankeyes is really a democrat trying to make republicans look as obnoxious and stupid as possible? I mean, it's too far over the top to be believable.
Thisland: I agree that's odd, but I think VA is probably dark blue, and the oddness comes from Washington. Lack of polling there?
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:12 PM
Actually I'm grateful for Alan Keyes. It was he, after all, who launched Barack Obama's Senate career so spectacularly in 2004.
Nate Silver is the man. 538 is just fascinating to watch and I can't believe the analysis that goes into that site. Makes my head hurt just thinking about it.
Loads of fun for the entire family.
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:14 PM
I'm back kids!!!!!!!!!!
I voted for Obama, and I wasn't alone :-) There was a huge line of people at the Coral Gables Library in Miami, FL. It took me 3 hours to wait for my turn. It was worth it!!!
There were young and old, women and men. There was a sweet old lady right before me, around +70, and displaying her "Hillary women for Obama" button :-) There were a lot of young people from University of Miami. A fantastic day in Miami !!!!
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:15 PM
Agree with "ThisLandIsMyLand"...
No way this Alan Keyes guy is real. Just no way.
"MOE will swing McCain's way due to the Bradley effect, which I'm really hopeful is the case."
So essentially, last hope of conservatives for victory is racism.
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:27 PM
HURRAY! We've got another Senate seat!!! And Obama is going to win in VIRGINIA! VIRGINIA! Who woulda thought back in February... wow!
Keep spinning the numbers Alan... 50 state strategy for the win!
Posted on October 20, 2008 4:35 PM
Checking the cross-tabs, I see that they report 11 percent of African-American respondents in VA intending to vote for McCain, which seems high. In Florida SUSA reported McCain's share of the AA vote as over 20 percent. I've seen it sugggested that the African-American vote for McCain is inflated by SurveyUSA polls because some pranksters respond to automated telephone polls by identifying themselves as blacks for McCain. It seems that correcting for might add a couple of points to Obama's VA margin, especially if they are weighting for race.
Posted on October 20, 2008 5:02 PM
That might be true... but even if the numbers they have are right, Obama is still winning. So if 11% of AA voters in VA vote for McCain, Obama will still lead (assuming the other numbers they have are correct).
I can see McCain taking 10%-15%... 20% does seem unlikely though... especially as news coverage of the McCain/Palin rallies gets more air time. I've seen enough youtube videos taken outside of McCain rallies to know that a fair amount of McCain's strongest supporters aren't basing their votes on Obama's plans as they are on basing it on other things.
I know Republicans aren't going to agree, and I'm not making a point about the party, McCain, or Palin. I do, however, think it is fair to say that although not all Republicans are racist, all racists will be voting against Obama, and most will be voting for McCain. If you disagree, you can look up the videos on youtube for yourself and see what you think.
I really feel for the real Republicans out there... I don't agree with your views, but I'm sorry your party has been stolen from you. I just want you to know that I'm praying for you real Republicans out there, and wish you the best of luck in taking back your party from these wingnuts.
Posted on October 20, 2008 5:16 PM
To all who think "alankeyesisawesome" might be overplaying the real Alan Keyes, I don't.
He actually is underplaying the berserk nature of that idiot. Keyes ran two campaigns for Senate in Maryland - in 1988 against Senator Sarbanes, and again in 1992 against Senator Mikulski. During the 1992 campaign, he took an $8,463/month salary from his campaign fund. That is an annualized salary of more than $100,000. "A man has got to earn a living" was his retort.
He also was on the radio here in Maryland. On some issues, sometimes he made Lush Rimbaugh seem sane. You all know how difficult that can be.
All I can say is that 'alankeyesisawesome' needs to work on his imitation of the real Alan Keyes, cause you still aren't near as crazy as the real one is.
Posted on October 20, 2008 5:34 PM
I know warner is popular here, but is Webb? I mean the guy barely eaked out a win after Allen made the famous "Macaca" comment.
I have said several times I trust Rasmussen, so I lean more toward the 10 point poll, but whether or not SUSA internals are accurate, they show the lead for Obama has closed 4 points...I'm not sure what to make of that.
Posted on October 20, 2008 5:43 PM
This poll should really have a (R) next to it. Even though it gives Obama a lead I dont believe this poll for a second. This same group shows FL McCain + 4, sorry thats not possible when EVERY other poll is showing +2 to +5 Obama.
Posted on October 20, 2008 6:30 PM
You all do realize that Joe the Plumber started this while thing, right?
Strong ties to terrorists? You guys crack me up.
Your right to vote is like your right to bear arms. Use it after your informed and educated, otherwise you might hurt somebody.
Posted on October 20, 2008 8:45 PM
If I was Obambi I'd be very nervous right about now! Americans don't like to be patronized and for him and his girlfriend (the MSM) to be popping the champagne with plenty of time left for this thing to reroute..well- it's just plain stupid and Americans won't stand for it! McCain just took the lead in OH..just trailing by 5% in FL and 8% in PA.
Be afraid Obamadroids...very afraid! ;-)
Posted on October 20, 2008 9:15 PM
The last hope for us conservatives is not *just* racism, but also ballot stuffing and vote suppression. But keep on underestimating us... just remember who told you so when we outperform not just the pre-election polls but the exit polls by 5 points. Oops, I forgot, you won't have access to raw exit poll data cuz we keep that secret!!! Hahahahahahahahahaha
Posted on October 20, 2008 11:45 PM
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