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VA: Obama 52, McCain 43 (PPP-10/21-23)

Topics: PHome

Public Policy Polling (D)
10/21-23/08; 1,231 likely voters, MoE +/-2.8
Mode: IVR

Virginia
Obama 52, McCain 43
(10/6-7: Obama 51, McCain 43

Senate:
Warner (D) 60, Gilmore (R) 32
(10/6-7: Warner 58, Gilmore 31)

 

Comments
BOOMFAIL:

Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus!

Landslide Baby Landslide

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C.S.Strowbridge:

At one time I was thinking Warner's coattails could help Obama over the top in Virginia.

Now I don't think that will be necessary.

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sam_from_seattle:

It will be very difficult for Obama to win more than about 397 electoral votes, which is where he'd end up if he wins all the states currently he is favored by intending voters, plus North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.

Ok after 270 it does not matter in this race.

The Senate is a different kettle of fish.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"Ok after 270 it does not matter in this race."

Not in this race, but the GOPers are already maneuvering for 2012. If McCain gets spanked, then we could see a real fight over the next 4 years.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

That should move New Hampshire into the Strong Obama category, which would give him 272 EC votes in the strong category.

And with just over a week to go, it will make McCain's prospects even weaker.

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mandalorianarmy:

BTW, Brokaw is sticking it to McCain on Meet the Press and McCain is being his normal pissy self.

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OGLiberal:

Obama is 52-44 in Rasmussen again today. The internals look increasingly better for him. One those who are sure of their vote, Obama leads, 48-39. His fav/unfav is at 57-42...McCain is at 50-49. Obama leads by 2 among men and trails by 1 among white women.

Anybody notice that every week, Zogby has one day that shows a huge, unexplained swing in McCain's direction, resetting the poll and erasing huge Obama leads. I seriously think he does this on purpose. After a few days, it gets back to a big Obama lead so he doesn't lose face, but the single day big McCain swing gives him Drudge headlines and assures continued appearances on FoxNews.

When these swings happen in the Ras poll (and they rarely do), Rasmussen always warns that it could be just statistical noise...and it almost always is. Zogby hypes it like, "Uh-oh...race isn't over...whites fleeing from Obama!"

Trust Rasmussen...that's what I've been doing almost this entire election season.

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mysticlaker:

I think the most significant poll coming out today is the UNH Obama poll (+15). That puts the remaining way to tie for McCain out of play.

The greater than 269 is complete. It's all whip cream now.

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BarackO'Clinton:

Relieved to see Obama holding in NH and VA.

As long as there are few surprised on election night, I will be popping the champagne relatively early.

Might need two bottles: one for the White House and another for the Lieberman-proof Senate.

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boomshak:

Bullsh*t. PPP is democrat pollster and always shows huge leads for Obama. Fail.

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boomshack:

OK, folks, there is no need to get excited here. I am reposting my expose on why the polling results do not represent the actual situation in the field:

OK guys. This is BIG. Seriously. BIG TIME.
I know a guy who has a friend who know this other guy who was an electrical engineering major at Purdue. And he explained to this other guy, not the first guy, but the other guy how the polling works.

They RANDOMLY select a large group of people who will be used for polling. It’s like a HUGE focus group. The group has equal number of Republicans, Democrats and Independents. Then each pollster selects their sample size according to their needs and budgets. Republicans are of course the priciest group: they earn more money, are busier and so on. Independents are the cheaper. So a pollster comes in and PURCHASES a number of people they want to poll out of that group from THE START according to their budgets.

So a pollster, say Zogby, first purchases the number of Republicans they can afford, then Independents to make the sample realistic, and then just fill in the rest with Democrats, who are FREE. That’s right, FREE.

Wealthier pollsters like Rasmussen and Zogby can afford HUGE sample sizes with lots of Republicans, while the financially struggling (cable competition, market crash) networks and MSM can only afford tiny samples with LOTS of FREE Democrats. See? It’s simple: market at work. The no name pollsters and those who came up with crappy estimates last cycle this year cannot afford the FAIR and BALANCED samples. It’s called competition. It gives the pollsters incentive to self-regulate to be competitive. It’s called CAPITALISM. Look into it, moonbats.

Then they keep polling the SAME PEOPLE in tracking polls. That’s why they are called TRACKING, geniuses!

And the reason why Obama SEEMS to be ahead is then very simple too:
- pollsters are running out of money towards the end, the closer to elections they get and oversample Democrats. We can really see that in what posters like Dana Adini are posting from NC, NV and so on: while the sample size is HUGE (hundreds of thousands), there DEMS are running 2:1 to REPs because they are FREE! And no results because the RESULTS COST MONEY!
- The people being polled in those focus groups get tired of being asked questions all this time for a year and a half for some of them by all these pollsters. They start to bs and make up answers just to have a little fun towards the end of a very long and boring election.

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sunnymi:

McCain's net favorability numbers step into neutral tending negative territory on Rasmussen.

These are the worst ever numbers for him on the Rasmussen tracker. If you just consider the 'very' favorable/unfavorable numbers he is already in the negative territory.

On the contrary Obama is almost near his highs as far as favorability is concerned.

Last night's polling must have had yielded a double figure margin betwen the two candidates. If Obama has another good night (even if it is not as good as last night) expect either Obama to touch 53 for tomorrow's tracker or the margin to go up to 9 (may be even 10).

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boomshak:

This poll is 20% AA. A bit on the incredibly high side don't ya think?

Fail.

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boomshak:

Who else thinks that 20% AA is high? Anyone?

Lol.

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sunnymi:

Boomshak, as per the exit polls of VA from 2004 AA's accounted for 21%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/VA/P/00/epolls.0.html

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abraxaf:

That's our boomshak! LOL

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boomshack:

I think 20% AA is too high. There are not that many AA in VA OR NC, where they are finding over a third AA in these hugely unbalanced and stacked exit polls.

I think the reason for the 20% is because AA must be cheaper to poll than the DEMs, who are FREE. They probably get money back as credit from the polling pool. I have to check on that.

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sunnymi:


PPP might be a Democratic pollster but provides full internals and is one among the few like SUSA who does so for state by state polling. His results for a certain state do not jump around between poll to poll.

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abraxaf:

boomshak, Virginia's population is 20.6% black.

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BrookLynda:

McBoomshak is touting Zogby to Tom Brokaw right now.

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sunnymi:


As per U.S Census estimates for 2006 for the state of VA:

White:73.3%
AA:19.9%

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/51000.html


These are exactly the numbers PPP is using for their polling!

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Thomas Bregman:

LOL ... boomer is comedian ...

VA demographics of 18 and above

236,016 -Asian
1,450,076 - Black
5,487,701 - White
379,865 - Hispanic
96,495 - Jewish
101,612 - Middle Eastern
8,122 - Native Amer
35,859 - Unknown
7,795,746 - Total

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boomshak:

Rasmussen

Obama's lead in Wisconsin shrinks to 7!

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Chester:

@ Boom et all Repubs...
okay, PPP is a D pollster, but the bigger question is : what evidence do you have, anywhere, of McCain gaining ground? It's basic physics... nothing has happened to facilitate a movement towards him; contrary, everyday another embarassement comes out about Sarah and everyday Obama comes out with a new ad or a new approach.

NOTHING HAS HAPPENED to swing the election towards McCain. David Gergen, refusing to say "it's over" because he's smarter than that, said on friday that Mac had "3-5 days" to turn this around dramatically or it would be over.

This is the 3rd day.

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Kjartan:

One question from Germany: There are many rumours of a dispute between the Palin-McCain aides. IF McCain surprisingly wins the presidential election, could he change his VP choice after the election?

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jeepdad:

From the WashPost tracker, showing Obama +9:

And as Election Day creeps closer, Obama's supporters are expressing near unanimous enthusiasm for his campaign, while McCain's backers remain more reserved. Seventy-one percent of Obama backers said they feel "very" enthusiastic about the campaign and 97 percent feel at least somewhat fired up about his candidacy. Among McCain's backers, 88 percent said they were enthusiastic, but far fewer, 39 percent, were decidedly so.

Overall in the new poll, Obama leads McCain 53 percent to 44 percent among likely voters.

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sunnymi:

Boomshak, the irony about this WI poll is:
1. Obama's support dropped 3 points since the last poll but McCain has not gained one single point
2. Obama is still above 50%
3. McCain campaign is out of the state so they do not have any chance of taking any advantage of the situation

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Kile Thomson:

LOL @ BOOM


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Thatcher:

Today's Diageo Hotline poll

Likely Voters
Obama-Biden 50%
McCain-Palin 42%
Undecided 6%

McCain -1 from yesterday

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AB:

Early voting for NC as of 1:00 am (from the NC state board of elections):
Total absentee ballots 1,192,156
Dem 655,937 (55.02%) compare to 45.64% of registered voters in NC
Rep 331,577 (27.81%) compare to 32.05% of registered voters in NC
AA 335,660 (28.16%) compare to 22% of registered voters in NC

More tellingly -- while mailin ballots ("civilian" where Repubs have a 55.13% to 28.49% advantage over Dems) have tapered off, in "Onestop" (which is how Dems are voting early) voting Dems have a 57.74% to 25.09% advantage.
There is a huge enthusiasm gap on the ground ...

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orange24:

Obama's lead in Wisconsin shrinks to 7!

Wow! Seven points. May as well just call it for McCain right now! Way to go!

Just curious, exactly how many hundreds of thousands of people are in 7% of the population of Wisconsin? Not too much ground to make up in a week. And lest we forget, 7% is the lowest number found in WI. Good luck with that...

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hou04:

DIAGEO/HOTLINE

Obama 50
McCain 42

Remember, they have 37% Republicans in their poll. Only Zogby claimed recently that "We have more republicans in our poll than anyone else".

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SeanCT:

First time poster. Is anyone watching MSNBC? They keep saying the Gallup poll has "tightened" since Oct. 20, when, they say, Obama was +10 and is now +7. What they are not saying, for some damn reason, is that they are using the RV numbers from Oct. 20, and the Traditional LV numbers from yesterday. Could that be any more disingenuous? What is going on? They are making the race "seem" tighter. Is this to keep Obama supporters from being complacent?

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NextAmericanChapter:

NEW HAMPSHIRE: OBAMA +15

I volunteer in NH and I'll tell you the number one reason why Obama is so far ahead in the state...it's Sarah Palin!

I've stood on many porches ready to talk about the economy and taxes, but many of these folks just end up ragging on Palin. And it's rarely about her experience level...it's about her mockery and sarcasm and nonsense about pro-american parts of the country.

And that's another reason why I just shake my head in disbelief that Palin is campaigning in IOWA. Folks in Iowa detest negative campaigning...anyone who watched the primaries could tell you that. Look for Obama's lead in Iowa TO INCREASE after Palin's visit.

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BrookLynda:

Kjartan: only if he could pressure her into resigning (ha!). The only other way she can be removed is via impeachment.

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DecaturMark:

@Kjartan:

I can't imagine a reasonable scenerio that could allow him to replace Palin at this point or even after the election unless there was a catastophic event happening to her.

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Kjartan:

@BrookLynda and @DecaturMark:

thanks for the information. I did not know that also a Vice President have to be impeached. I thought the president could fire him.

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Thomas Bregman:

Boomer ... Please, please, please don't leave us post e-day. We love you. Hey man, it sounds like you still think McCain has a shot. How about putting a few bucks on the race like a good capitalist? I'll go up to $10k on Barack. Let me know my friend.

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timontheleft:

Is anyone watching George Stephanopolis? Lindsay Graham is on; he sounds just like that short gay guy that used to be on Will & Grace.

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timontheleft:

BTW that's not meant to offend short gay guys in any way . . .

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zen:


According to Nate (538.com), in 2008 primary, rasmussen often underestimated Obama. That was my observation, too. (check VA,NC,IN,OR)

Because Obama supporters are difficult to reach...young, active(not at home), cell phone users.

So we have to add at least 2-3 percent to Obama for real numbers.

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Mike In Maryland:

boomshat,

What would you say of a poll taken in Maryland, showing 23% AA, 50% Dem registration, 30% Republican registration and 20% Independent/3rd party?

Would you think that poll accurate? What is your gut reaction to that breakdown?

Guess what? It wouldn't be accurate.

It wouldn't be accurate.

It wouldn't be accurate.

It wouldn't be accurate.

Maryland doesn't break out race/ethnicity in registration, but according to the Census Bureau, the 2006 estimate of AAs in Maryland was 29.5%. So a poll showing 23% AA would be questionable. (http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/24000.html)

According to the Maryland State Board of Elections, the party registration breakdown in Maryland is:
Democrats: 56.26%
Republicans: 27.66%
Independents/3rd party: 16.08%

And a registration breakdown of 50% Dem registration, 30% Republican registration and 20% Independent/3rd party would also be inaccurate, OVER representing non-Dem registrations by more than 6%. (http://www.elections.state.md.us/pdf/vrar/2008_09.pdf)

See boomshat? I can back up my FACTS with authoritative citations. You, on the other hand, make opinion statements, presented as 'facts', and refuse to even show us why you hold those opinions.

In other words, boomshat fails every time he/she/it opens the pie hole.

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green baby green:

@Boom:

Obama's lead down to 7??? Are you insane? We have barely a week to go. Do you really expect that to swing to McSame? Next thing you know, you'll be quoting Zogby!

Hey Boomshack, you do a great Stephen Colbert imitation - keep it up!

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syrac818:

Probably the most direct, concise, factual piece of ownership I've seen on these forums all year. No unnecessary trash talk, just the facts:

boomshak:
Who else thinks that 20% AA is high? Anyone?

Lol.

Posted on October 26, 2008 10:24 AM


NEXT POST:

sunnymi:

Boomshak, as per the exit polls of VA from 2004 AA's accounted for 21%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/VA/P/00/epolls.0.html


Posted on October 26, 2008 10:24 AM


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