Mark Blumenthal | August 16, 2007
Topics: 2006 , The 2006 Race
I took my laptop with me on vacation, and in catching up on the news, I came across one of those impossible-not-to-blog items in NBC's First Read:
NBC/WSJ pollster Peter Hart (D) tells First Read that the revision of the primary calendar -- moving Iowa forward to the first few days in January -- is really the most important political event that has happened in the past few months...Perhaps most significant of all is that no one will know who's up and who's down right before Iowa. No self-respecting polling company, he says, does polling between the 20th and 25th of December. So we very well might have no idea how Iowa will break until after the results are in.
For what it's worth, I took a close look at whether polls suffer from a "pre-Christmas effect" back in December 2005, and found less evidence for it than I had expected.
One thing seems clear though: "Self-respecting" or not, some pollsters will certainly try to measure the ups and downs the Iowa Caucus campaign, and we will be there to track and explain. So much for another vacation in late December!
And speaking of vacation...In the rush to get out of town last week, I neglected to post a note that I would be taking some much needed R&R. Sorry about that. I'll be back next week. See you Monday.