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Articles and Analysis

 

Very Sleepy "Outliers"


George Bishop takes up likely voters at TPM Cafe.

Gallup finds Obama 74% of Jewish voters, 65% of first time voters, but no increase in their proportions since since 2004.

The Pew Research Center finds Obama's image improving, interest in the campaign growing since 2004 and 64% familiar with "Joe the Plumber."

Jennifer Agiesta finds perceptions of the candidates ideologies holding steady.

The Center for Rural Strategies survey finds McCain losing rural support during October.

PPP offers a useful caution on those early voting numbers, and asks you where they should poll next.

Nate Silver charts the polls on California's Prop 8.

Marc Ambinder trusts Mason-Dixon and Schroth-Eldon (St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald) in Florida.

Mickey Kaus would like to see the Time/CNN Ayres and ACORN questions tabbed by the vote.

Greg Sargent has the latest television advertising buy data from Evan Tracey.

The Onion: "Zogby Poll: John Zogby Coolest Dude in America."

 

Comments
mangu43:

wow, that's great, i am glad that I am not the only one who finds Zogby as irritating as sandpaper on knuckles. Have you been to his site? It's a giant ego stroke. Keep up the good work, Mark.

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Gary Kilbride:

There should be a caution about early voting numbers. In 2004 many progressive sites were touting a Kerry blowout, based on early voting totals. I looked at some of those old threads a few nights ago.

No doubt this time it's more legit, but still overblown.

I voted early on Thursday, at a major shopping mall in Henderson, NV. There wasn't a one second wait. In fact, several poll workers were waving me to their station. When I got there, they were joking they needed something to do. Granted, this was mid afternoon. I handicapped correctly this time. In 2004 I chose 8 PM and it turned into a wait of more than a half hour. It was almost exclusively older voters there today.

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Concerning Gallup's first time voters...I think they frame this question in the wrong way since a large proportion of new registrants voted in the primary, so this technically would not be their "first time" voting.

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Chicago:

Responding to a poll does NOT equal a vote on election day. This is why Obama will lose. Young people and idealistic blogers and media types dont get this and it's why they will be shocked by the evaporation of their mans support Nov 4th night.

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Saxa:

@Chicago

If you dismiss any validity of the polls in general (rather than questioning a specific polls methodology), then why are you on this site? Plus, you give no reason why how the polls are inaccurate.

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Eleven more days. Let's hope Obama can begin to lead this country as soon as possible. The problem with this horse race is that important issues are still ongoing and aren't getting the attention they need.

For example, this Republican Hero. I trust Barack Obama to fill the thousands of positions with people like this.

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geek:

I have been looking at Alaska and curious about what the turnout and vote may actually be. The last data I saw appeared to reflect a +20 lead for Senator Mc Cain. My sense looking at 2006 Governors election and reading the State Newspapers, the election may be closer than that.

Is there any recent data.

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