Mark Blumenthal | June 9, 2009
10:20 p.m. - A nearly complete count with all but five precincts included: Deeds 49.7%, McAuliffe 26.4%, Moran 23.8% with ver 319,000 votes cast.
9:23 p.m. I am going to leave the deeper "lessons" until tomorrow, but with 97.3% of the precincts counted, Deeds leads McAuliffe by a massive 22-point margin -- Deeds 49%, McAuliffe 27%, Moran 24% and 305,866 votes counted so far. PPP's Tom Jensen was right when he guessed the turnout would be "around 300,000." Even the final polls understated Deeds ultimate margin, although they clearly had the trend moving in the right direction. More tomorrow.
8:47 p.m. - Here are the first four heavily (presumed) African-American precincts to report in Richmond City (Obama '08 GE percentage in parentheses):
- Pct. 301 (96%): 45% McAuliffe, 30% Deeds, 25% Moran
- Pct. 303 (98%): 45% McAuliffe, 28% Deeds, 27% Moran
- Pct. 304 (96%): 49% McAuliffe, 28% Deeds, 23% Moran
- Pct. 305 (96%): 40% McAuliffe, 31% Deeds, 29% Moran
8:20 p.m. Meant to include this from 538's Ed Kilgore, based on this CD map:
With the votes now pouring in, Creigh Deeds is winning in nine of Virginia's eleven congressional districts (Moran narrowly leads in the 8th on the strength of his Alexandria performance, but the lead probably won't hold, and McAuliffe leads narrowly in the 3d, with Richmond still out)
8:17 p.m. I'm guessing this comes as no surprise to anyone reading this, but Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight is also live blogging tonight.
8:12 p.m. Here are are few more presumed-to-be heavily African American precincts in Newport News:
- Pct. 404 (98% Obama): 52% McAuliffe, 26% Deeds, 22% Moran
- Pct. 414 (99% Obama): 46% McAuliffe, 32% Deeds, 23% Moran
So far, none of the many heavily African American precincts in Richmond City have reported, which probably means that Deeds statewide margin will narrow a bit from where it is now.
8:07 p.m. - So did the African American vote break decisively to Terry McAuliffe (discussed in more detail here)? Not nearly enough to offset Deeds margins elsewhere apparently.
I'm going to assume that any precinct that Barack Obama carried with more than 90% of the vote in 2008 is virtually all African American. Here are a handful of precincts reporting in Newport News that are 90%+ black:
- Pct. 303 (98% Obama): 47% McAuliffe, 34% Deeds, 19% Moran
- Pct. 402 (99% Obama): 52% McAuliffe, 25% Deeds, 24% Moran
- Pct. 405 (98% Obama): 40% McAuliffe, 37% Deeds, 23% Moran
8:00 p.m. Sounds like AP just projected Deeds the winner - local radio station WTOP just called it for Deeds.
7:50 p.m. A quick check shows Deeds winning nearly 50% in precincts counted so far in Arlington City and Fairfax County and roughly a third of the vote in Moran's true home base in Alexandria City. If that holds up, this will not be close.
7:45 p.m. This post is likely to be more of an occasional election night update than a live-blog. I was battling another torrential rain-storm here in DC and just got home. The polls closed in VA 45 minutes ago and results are starting to come in. It doesn't sound like the Associated Press has declared a winner in the Governor's yet, although they just declared a winner (Jody Wagner) in the Lt. Governor's race.