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WA: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 3/9)

Topics: poll


Rasmussen
3/9/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Washington

2010 Senate
49% Rossi (R), 46% Murray (D)
48% Murray (D), 37% Benton (R)
49% Murray (D), 30% Didier (R)
47% Murray (D), 32% Widener (R)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Dino Rossi: 51 / 45
Don Benton: 26 / 29
Patty Murray: 53 / 41
Clint Didier: 26 / 26
Chris Widener: 26 / 26

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 50 / 49
Gov. Gregoire: 40 / 60

 

Comments
CHRIS MERKEY:

rasmussen keep trying

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Farleftandproud:

Rossi probably won't run. He is so bankrupt from two close campaigns. I also think if he runs this time around, it will look like he is a sexist pig. I am sure being pro-life and targeting those voters, he would lose to Murray. Women would vote for Murray 2-1.

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Farleftandproud:

And I seriously believe that Rasmussen is wrong on Obama's approval in Washington. I bet in reality it is about 58 percent. They don't have a clue.

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poughies:

If nothing else (I think Obama's approval in the Evergreen state is underdone), the approval lines up with Rasmussen's approval nationwide...

http://www.cookpolitical.com/sites/default/files/statepvi.pdf

Washington should be something like +5 on approval compared to the national trends according to the PVI... Considering Rasmussen's latest approval is something like 43 for Obama (crazy I know), the number at least makes sense in comparison to the national number...

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Stillow:

Again with the Rass bashing. You guys said this same crap when Rass put Obama below 50..wow then all of a sudden all the toher pollsters had him below 50. Now Rass has him below 45 and your sayignt he same thing...pretty soon other pollsters will be there too. Rass uses likely voters so he picks up on trends before registered voter or adult pollsters do.

It was only a matter of tiem before Obama's likability began to give way to his unpopluar policy stances. I cannot think of a single policy he supports that has majoirty support. Just like with Bush, likability will give way to policy.

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Stillow:

As for Rossi, if he does run and other pollsters confirm that he could beat Murry,which I think he could, conservatives would smell the blood and rossi would benefit from nationwide moneybombs....just like Brown did. I sent money to Scott Brown and I live 2,500 miles away.....if I could get rid of Murry,k I'd send cash to Rossi as well.

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I live in Wash. State and there's no way in the world that Patty Murray doesn't win in a landslide. Rossi is a joke. Gov. Gregoire, despite her unpopularity, won in a landslide in the last election, even though all the polls -- particularly Ras -- said it would be a tie like it was in 2004.

Also, Boeing is now getting the huge Pentagon aerial tanker contract thanks to Sen. Murray. That gives thousands of jobs to the Seattle area. And she got $6 billion in stimulus money for the east central part of the state, where the Hanford nuclear site is located. Even that heavily Republican area appreciates her efforts and she'll probably stay even there, or maybe even win the Benton/Franklin County area which typically goes about 2-1 GOP. That area now has the #1 economy in the US thanks to Murray and the people there appreciate her.

I'd be shocked if she didn't win by 25 points. As for Obama, he is loved in this state. I guess Ras only surveyed the part of the state that's East of the Cascades!

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Xenobion:

As a native Washingtonian I'll give my spin. I'm sorry Rasmussen but this is bogus. You've gotten Washington wrong time and time again. Look at past polls of Gregoire and Rossi. Rossi is always +3 but suddenly when it comes to the polls Rossi either ties so close as in the first gov run or just flat out loses like in the 2nd. Rasmussen continues to poll the state incorrectly. I won't make comment to any other poll but they always have Washington State wrong.

Patty Murray is a senior senator and has ranked up very high in the Dem party. People are starting to look to her as an asset for getting things done in the State. Cantwell would be a much easier target although she's rising in the ranks as well. Frankly, I would say most Washingtonians are content with Murray/Cantwell. Rossi is a 2 time loser that if he runs again will have a terrible time getting money against Murray's warchest. People like what Rossi has to say but he's not Senator material.

Rossi has a bunch of children and unless his son says, "Daddy run for Senate," like he said when to run for Gov a 2nd time I doubt you'll see him running.

Again Ras has this wrong.

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Stillow:

You guys are also exluding the fact that 2010 may turn into a wave election for conservatives. If that happens, then close races usually get caught wit hthe wave. Plus turn out is usually higher for the minoirty party in off year elections....so even if Rossi is really down 3, itsrealtisitic he picks up this seat by virtue of it being a wave election like 2008 or 1994.

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Stillow -- real world. Murray wins by 20-25 points no matter who runs against her. She is extremely well liked here in Wash., has brought thousands of jobs to the state, has carloads of money and campaigns like every day is the last day of the campaign.

No contest here even if the wave in the rest of the country is a tsunami.

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Xenobion:

Stillow you don't recognize the candidate. I contend to this day that Scott Brown won because he was the superior candidate. Dino Rossi is the inferior canidate against Patty Murray. Patty Murray really has no dirt on herself to lose to even Dino Rossi. The only reason Dino Rossi exists is that Christine Gregoire was the weakest and most liberal Governor this state has seen in some time. He still lost to her. You see Dino Rossi lost in 2004 when Republicans were thriving in the best environment possible against a very weak Dem candidate. Now the republicans are as bad off as the democrats. Washington has a high independent population that will certainly vote for Rossi but leans left in every election cycle. I wouldn't put it at a 20-25 point difference like Nelcon1551 says. If Rossi runs again he'll become the Norm Coleman of Washington. The trifecta loser.

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Xenobion:

The other reason Patty Murray will win. Teachers, teachers, teachers. She wins the education lobby. Washington is not a 1 issue state. The notorious Soccer Mom in tennis shoes has been a moniker for the state and will be for some time to come.

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Farleftandproud:

I think Rasmussen may be more accurate on Nevada and NH because public opinion in those changes like there is no tomorrow. Iowa is sort of that way too. Swing states in particular are such battle grounds for both parties, it is no wonder why the people are confused.

IL is wrong because Democrats outnumber Republicans in the house by at least 3 to 2, and Washington state has been a strong blue state for a long time.

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Stillow:

Does anyone know Murray's previous election results? If memory seres has she always gotten below 55? If that is the case, i na year like this for Dems, then ya, Rossi can steal the seat.

And the dirt on Murray is that she is a Dem and an incumbant in a year shaping up to be brutal for D's and incumbants.

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Stillow:

Don't underestimate the power of the anti incumbant mood. I assume you libs saw the news today....you Dems have no run up the highest monthly deficit in history.....your doing a great job!!! At this rate our dollar will be worth one peso by year's end.

Hear that? Listen to those crickets fro mthe left now about balloning deficits and debt....all of a sudden now its ok and in fact we want more spending......sorry guys.

Dems out, incumbants out. Fiscal conservatism is coming back into fashion wheather you liek it or not.

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Field Marshal:

Uh, the poll looks pretty accurate to me. A poll done about a month ago by Moore Research shows almost indentical results. Too bad you libs are blinded by your hatred of accurate polling as opposed to one's that show Dems in the lead.

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jmartin4s:

Here the perspective from a Dem trying to be unbiased towards both sides. If Rossi runs Murray will win but it will be a dogfight. Rossi will win independents and his performance against Gregoire was quite well considering the heavy ANTI-R environment he was fighting. This is the model I crafted for this race.
Murray/Rossi
Dem (35) 94%/6%
Rep (32) 6%/94%
Ind (33) 47%/53%
Rossi gets 49.67% with Murray getting 50.33%. Patti Murray knows how to win a tight election but regardless of what rasmussen says or anyone thinks this will be tight. I put the odds of Dino running at 50% and you can be he is recieving a call from John Cornyn every day begging him to run. If Rossi runs Murray will probably pull it out but it will be a dogfight.

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Since there is no chance that Rossi will run, the polling shows double digit wins for Murray against any Republican. And for those who wanted to know about the 2004 race, she got 55% of the vote to 42% for George Nethercutt.

Nethercutt, by the way, was also very well known in the state and had been the Congressman from Spokane for 10 years before running against Murray and getting slaughtered.
Nethercutt only got 52% in his home district, despite representing it for a decade and carried only one other Cong. district in the state. Murray carried 7 out of the 9. It was no contest.

Kerry, by the way, only got 53% in Washington in '04. Murray outpolled Kerry by 50,000 votes and beat Nethercutt by about 350,000 votes.

So you were saying?

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Why in the world would anyone think Dino Rossi will run statewide again? He ran one good race, in '04 against a weak Christine Gregoire. When he tried again in '08, he got beat badly, losing 53-46, which was about 200,000 votes and a near landslide for Gregoire. All of the polls, right up to election day, had the race a tossup. That was no doubt because of the tie vote from 2004.

Obama won 57-42, so Rossi ran only 4 points better than McCain. In '04, he also ran 4 points better than Bush.

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jmartin4s:

Nethercutt was a hardcore conservative who represented a conservative district and thus was not able to get moderates like Rossi could. Murray is very smart and would probably win but this race would be a lot closer than people think.

Unless PPP or SurveyUSA comes out with a poll showing Murray up by double digits over Rossi or even high single digits I will continue to stick to this theory because I do trust them more than Rasmussen. Look I think that people like Dino Rossi and Scott Brown are buffoons who under most circumstances would be laughed off the stage but we have to take them seriously this year. Murray will probably win but if your in Washington state keep your eye on this race.

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jmartin4s:

According to Nate Silver Murray has a 66% chance of defeating Rossi. In addition, Giannoulias has a 67% chance of defeating Kirk. Murray would most likely win but if everyone assumes it will be a cakewalk what happened in Massachusetts will happen all over the country.

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jmartin4s:

oh and Nelcon you were wrong. Rossi lost to Gregoire 53 to 47 while Obama beat McCain 58 to 40. That means that Rossi ran SEVEN POINTS ahead of McCain.

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Xenobion:

Murray is not an open seat she is an incumbant but an incumbant that Washington loves. People increasingly do not like Dino Rossi after he made a fool out of himself out of the gov debates with Gregoire about how the gov should have held on the the Seattle Supersonics. A dumb debate really where Rossi showed he had no idea what job he was applying for.

You can talk and talk and talk about the anti-incumbant mood around the country but when it all comes down to it individual states vote for their senators. Washington State polls overwhelmingly for a public option vs. private health care exchanges and esp vs. the status quo. Dino Rossi offers nothing to the table, he's an anti-tax advocate pro-business for sure but falls flat on every social issue that the state cares about. His gov campaign could not easily be transformed to a Senate campaign where he's not really controlling budget issues. People liked Rossi against Gregoire and Gregoire was scrutinized for some very bad things, but noone has anything on Patty Murray, she's about the most non-elitist high ranking Senator out there.

If Rossi runs it could end his political career forever.

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