Pollster.com

so if a DSCC poll shows rossi within the MoE, in reality they're probably tied or rossi has a slight lead. sounds about right in this environment

It's probably tied. I don't think enthusiasm gap will be as pronounced in WA as in other states because it's a mail-in state. It's a lot easier to just mail in a ballot than it is to get your butt to a polling booth. Therefore, assuming all pollsters are using a standard LV screen, to that extent they are probably underestimating Murray's vote in WA by a couple of points.

The evidence for this, btw, is the primary vote. If there's an enthusiasm gap it didn't really show up in this vote, and you'd expect it to; after all this is only a primary, yet voters in King Co. (mostly Dem) turned out in pretty high percentages...about 37% I think, which is comparable to many very conservative counties' turnout based on the WA gov stats.

So, instead of an 8 point or 10 point spread I'd expect one closer to 4-5 points there.

I'm more worried about Boxer than Murray at this point.

This poll should really worry dems (ex. Nelcon and his arrogance) that they need to be concerned and getting people out to for Patty Murray. If she is leading in this poll by five she may be trailing in reality by 2. Just remember when PPP was still using the RV screen Murray only led 49 to 46. When PPP switched to the lv screen their result tilted much more towards the GOP. I remember last August when Blanche Lincoln looked like she might in trouble the DSCC released a poll showing Lincoln leading all her opponent by at least 15%. Once again I say this with urgency to democrats, Patty Murray can lose, PLEASE TAKE THIS ONE SERIOUSLY!!!!!!!

I continue to think that Murray is doing significantly better in WA than the polling is showing. As a resident of eastern WA, which is the heart of GOP country, I see little or no evidence of any pro-Rossi sentiment. There is, however, strong positive responses for Murray when she appears here campaigning.

Outside of Spokane, the largest population center here on the Eastside is the Tri-Cities area (Kennewick, Richland, Pasco), home of Hanford. This is the strongest economy in the Pacific Northwest and has enjoyed very strong population and economic growth in the past 2 years. Murray is exceptionally popular here since she is continually credited with getting $6 billion in stimulus dollars for the expansions of both the Hanford nuclear cleanup efforts and the tremendous growth of the scientific community fostered by Pacific Northwest National Labs.

She recently drew an enthusiastic crowd of about 300 people in Kennewick for a rally, while the next day Rossi was in town and offering to buy lunch for voters, and drew a crowd of --- TWELVE!. That's right, not 12,000, not 1,200, just 12.

Murray will of course not win here, but she'll probably lose to Rossi by mid double digits (maybe like 58-42), when in order to win statewide, Rossi would need to carry this 250,000 metro area by around 3-1.

At the current time this poll may not seem too accurate, but I predict the final results will shift in her favor, just like Boxer. Feingold, I am a bit more worried about, since Wisconsin has a huge angry conservative base, being in the midwest, makes it tougher for him to be a liberal.

I've never been impressed with Rossi as a candidate, and loves to debate, but sometimes he won't answer tough questions, like on social issues. He is good at the usual answers, like taxes are too high, but one time he said he called "Washington DC" one hellhole of a town, and it brings up the question, why he would want to be a US Senator.

It was just like fiorina, how they dodged the question. At least Scott Brown, came out in his debate and stated he would uphold Roe vs wade, but like many Democrats opposed partial birth abortion.

I think he supported civil unions but not gay marriage which is pretty mainstream. Washington and CA, have some more deeply red patches, like PA, but to have to win statewide office, you have to be clear on what you believe.

Nelcon here's a little statistic that should somewhat alarm you Dino Rossi has 38,258 facebook fans to Patty Murray's 17,487 facebook fans. Meaning Rossi is outnumbering her in terms of facebook fans 2 to 1. While this may seem meaningless in terms of predicting what will happen it shows that Rossi does have the more enthusiastic supporters and if independents end up making a significant plurality of voters this fall in Washington state that could be a huge headache for Murray. Senator Murray has done a lot of good work when it comes healthcare bill (she wrote a lot of the bill) and the progressive agenda. Murray is a huge heavyweight and yields the same amount of power as Boxer, Levin, Schumer, and Mikulski. But all the positives for me make Murray vulnerable to special interests and republicans have been wanting to tear her down for years. In addition, her photo op with the child whose mom died of cancer and then saying make gaffe about this G-d wanting the healthcare bill passed is adding fuel to the fire. At the same time, Patty Murray has proven to be a political powerhouse and a bulldog on the campaign trail and when it comes to fundraising. I feel it could go either way but if out of Boxer, Feingold and Murray, Murray is the most likely to lose. Hopefully all of them can survive but this one for now is a tossup. I haven't seen the need for the DSCC to release polls for WI or CA.

@nelcon

You really think Rossi is supposed to get a big crowd at a restaurant?

jamartins4: I don't think that facebook is any indication one way or another about how a race will turn out. If it meant anything then why is Murray up five in this poll?

@alan u obviously didn't read my comment, I said that is was meaningless in terms of predicting what will happen but it was used as a measuring device in terms of whose fans are more enthusiastic. Read my comment in full before making a conclusion. The poll was done by the DSCC which pushes it more towards Murray which is why she is up by 5. In reality this race is probably a dead heat.

jmartin4s: I did read your comment. I don't believe that facebook indicates more enthusiasm for a candidate. His campaign may be using facebook more than Murray's. That's all it means. I would really not read any more than that into it.

Rossi probably has more facebook fans because he has run in two gubernatorial campaigns, and has a lot from 2008. Murray in contrast has built up her fan list in the past 6 months. She had never been a huge high profile senator, like a Hillary Clinton or JOhn Kerry, or Russ Feingold, and that is probably part of the reason.

@jmartin4s: If you think I would be alarmed by your Facebook numbers of 38,258 fans for Rossi on Facebook vs. 17,487 fans for Murray, you should be apoplectic about the following numbers:

Murray, 670,284. Rossi 483,305. You know what those were? Those were the actual votes Murray got vs the actual votes Rossi got in the August 17 election, running against each other.

Now, let me see. What would I find more important? A few thousand extra Facebook fans, or almost 200,000 more actual voters choosing my candidate in a real election?

And a lot of fans of these senate candidates don't even live in that state. I am a facebook fan of both Feingold and Murray and Boxer. Some of Rossi or Fiorina's fans could live in Texas or Alabama for all I know. Their are probably more Republicans who sign up for these politicians fan sites because they are more excited.

Oh dear, it's getting rather tiresome to have to explain this to you nelcon, but I'll try again.

There was more than one Republican running in the Washington primary. That's why Murray got more votes than Rossi. Is this really so hard to understand?

@Dave: Murray got almost 200,000 more votes than Rossi on August 17. End of story.

PS: There was one other significant Republican running in that race, and he hasn't endorsed Rossi. In fact, all his supporters call Rossi "Dino the Rino." Also, there were other Democrats running as well.

And in America, last time I looked, we don't vote by party; we vote by candidate. If Rossi couldn't come within 13 points of Murray in a head to head pre-election actual vote that drew 40$ of the registered voters, when he had run statewide THREE times previously since Murray last ran for election -- and lost every time -- the guy's a total loser.

And by the way, here is the Eastern Washington bastion of Republicanism, it is now 3 weeks since the primary that there still has not been a single Rossi sign showing up anywhere that I've seen. I think the only reason pollsters are still showing support for him is that people they are polling think he's running for governor again against Christin Gregoire!

The man is a total loser.

Yep, like banging my head against a wall. Oh well, I tried.

To all those idiots who don't think Patty Murray could lose, the DSCC would not be releasing a poll unless they were concerned. I will blame Nelcon in particular if she does end up losing, arrogance among democrats could cost Murray her seat.

Dave maybe he'll get it in November when Murray doesn't win by 200k.

Nelcon probably knows his own state better than those of you who don't live there. I've only been to Washington a couple times, so I won't pretend to know what I'm talking about when analyzing it.

The polls indicate Murray is vulnerable, but he has a point that they are assuming a massive cratering of dem support in the Seattle region.

Aaron living in a state does not make you an expert, Nelcon also swore to everyone that Dino Rossi would not run, how that work out. People should also be aware that many people lose one or two elections for governor and than go off to win an election for senator. In my opinion, I think Patty Murray survives by the skin on her teeth but it is going to take a good GOTV effort and a very aggressive campaign run on Murray's part in order to win this. However, Murray has run aggressive campaigns before and will run one again. I would like to see what pops up when PPP polls this race again using their LV screen (the 49 to 46 poll was on the RV screen), this will give us more of an idea as to what will happen in November.

Several points to make. First, LV screens vs RV screens in WA are not all that relevant, since, except for one county, it's an all mail-in ballot and people in the state vote in very high numbers.

The primary alone, with some decent, but not very substantial contests, drew over 40% of the registered voters. The November forecast is for about 55%+ turnout, so it won't be that much bigger than the primary.

And, despite all the Facebook nonsense, Murray did beat Rossi by nearly 200,000 REAL VOTES! There were 15 Senate candidates and she got >46% of the vote, while he barely got 33%. So for him to win, he has to outvote her 18-3 among the 40% of the electorate that already voted and didn't vote for either one of them, plus another 15% of the electorate that stayed home in August but will show up (or mail in!) in November.

Now, considering her massive advantage on the westside (Seattle metro + a lot of other very liberal counties), it happened to have had a slightly lower turnout (37% vs 40% statewide) than the eastern, more GOP prone portions of the state. So, using simple arithmetic, that's an unbelievably steep hill for him to climb.

Also, Murray has an enormous cash advantage and it appears Rossi doesn't have the wherewithal to flood the air for the next few weeks. So far, here in the eastern GOP bastion of the state, I have seen precisely one TV ad for Rossi since the primary has ended.

Compounding the problem for him is that, unlike the primary, there are a flood of ballot initiatives that will be on the November ballot. One of them, sponsored by Costco, which is headquartered in heavily Democratic Kirkland, a suburb of Seattle, seeks to eliminate the state's monopoly on running and operate stores that sell packaged liquor.

This will be very popular and since Costco is a huge employer in the state and will spend millions promoting the initiative, it will drive up turnout, particularly on the westside of the state.

There are also other initiatives on the ballot, including one by perennial anti-tax clown Tim Eyman, to try and make it harder for the legislature to raise taxes. There is also nothing like a Tim Eyman ballot initiative to drive liberals to the mailbox to vote against his silly initiatives.

I'm not aware of any real anti-incumbent or anti-Obama or anti-health care reform excitement going on around here. The Tea Party movement seems to have gone home to sulk and lick their wounds after their hero, Clint Didier (who comes from the same part of the state that I live in), got just 12% of the vote. Didier has not endorsed Rossi.

Finally, Patty Murray has truly taken a page out of the old Hillary Clinton playbook by paying more attention to the Republican areas of the state (the eastside) than the heavily Democratic westside. Note to geography buffs: The Cascade mountains neatly divide the state in two, both physically and politically; hence the westside vs the eastside divide. Hillary won her landslides in NY State by showing up in strong GOP areas upstate and neutralizing the normal Republican margins there, while easily maintaining the heavily Democratic downstate vote.

Sen. Murray is doing the same thing. She's been here on the eastside 3 times already since the primary (Tri-Cities, Yakima & Spokane) and is getting great news coverage and warm receptions.

Dino did get 12 people at a restaurant here, as I mentioned, and hasn't been seen or heard from since!

Initiatives I-1100 and I-1105 are a disgrace to WA state. My sister, who works in the pharmacy at costco, was forced to sign the petition despite being against it because our brother is a sheriff deputy and the privatization of liquor is being funded by cutting 200 million from our fire and police departments. What Nelcon neglects to point out is that Patty Murray had very few contenders from her party, Dino Rossi had a multiplicity of opponents that divided the Republican vote. When an 18 year incumbent can only garner 46% of the vote, Washingtonians are obviously looking from something else. YES, Dino Rossi garnered 34% of the Primary vote, but add all the Replublican challengers and Republicans outnumbered Democratic voters by about 50-48%...That itself should signal that Patty is vulnerable. Clint Didier may be holding out his endorsement of Rossi, but the tea party along with Paul Akers have already thrown their support behind Rossi so expect the numbers to change very little from the Primary. It is also odd Nelcon that you say that you say there is little enthusiasm for Dino Rossi on the east side because as a Western Washington resident, I have seen nothing but positive buzz about his candidacy and the chance to sweep out Patty Murray. I have doorbelled and spoken first hand to residents and I can tell you that the momentum is on his side. It is sad that a poll produced by DSCC could not even get Senator Murray out of the MoE; thus highlighting this is going to be an incredibly close race and I would say anyone who says Patty Murray's support is being underestimated is clearly hyperbolizing the obvious: Patty Murray is in the fight for her life here and if anyone can unseat her, it will be Dino Rossi. Nelcon, why do I get the impression that you work personally close with Murray's campaign in the hopes of undermining Rossi's campaign?

FLAP, Rossi's previous statewide runs have little to do with his facebook fans. I would know because he had roughly 4,000 fans when I became a fan of his on facebook and that was AFTER the 2008 election. This is the first time he has generated national attention. Patty, however, is not THAT unknown. She is no Hillary Clinton or John Kerry but she is high among the ranks and was far more known nationally than Rossi.

the dscc just announced they are dumping 2 million into this race

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/41917.html

but I guess Nelcon thinks he knows better than the DSCC and that Patty Murray is going to win by double digits whatever. If Murray was as safe as Nelcon says they wouldn't be putting one penny into it.

5% lead on a dscc poll. Probably means its tied.

Anyone who lives on the westside and sees the "enthusiasm" for Dino Rossi is laughable. Okay, he'll increase his vote there from 28% to 29%!

Rossi's only chance is to run up a 3-1 margin east of the Cascades and he has no effective campaign here a yet. Murray is all over the region and getting extremely positive local media play and support.

You can't know how grateful the people here in the East -- particularly in the Tri-Cities area -- for the absolutely booming economy. Almost every day the local media sops up a national story about the Tri-cities now being one of the Top 10 economies in the US with jobs galore, home building booming and scientists and engineers moving into the area at a breakneck speed.

And every single one of those stories makes it a point to credit Sen. Murray for gaining the $6 billion out of the original Obama stimulus program to put the dollars directly into this region.

Couple that with the fact that the local right wing's "favorite son," Clint Didier, got royally screwed by the regular Republican machine and are sitting on their hands and it's hard to figure out where Rossi will get any kind of voting margin necessary to compete statewide.

I read the Tri-City Herald and they run Letters to the Editor for or against candidates on a regular basis and I cannot recall a single "I'm for Rossi" letter published in the past week or 10 days.

Sure, DSCC just trumpeted the fact that they plan to put $2 million in an ad buy for Murray, but if you read the small print it says it will be for ads to run beginning in mid-October and they can be pulled at any time. Sounds like a great bluff to me since Rossi is way short of funds and without a booming vote on the Eastside, there's no way he can makeup that 200,000 vote deficit he had coming out of the primary.

You can talk all you want about Facebook, which is of course a joke, but I can remember two years ago in mid-September, I couldn't drive 200 yards down any main thoroughfare here on the Eastside without seeing 10-15 Rossi signs during his campaign against Gregoire. Yesterday, I was out and about in the area and saw hundreds of signs for every which candidate you can imagine -- with one exception. Not a single Rossi sign existed.

Oh! What do you know: New York Times now has Dino Rossi as the odds on favorite to win the Senate seat... Follows in suit with electoralmap.net, RCP, the primary results when combining all challengers, and every recent poll aside from this joke of a poll. Face it, the DSCC is pouring 2 million into Murray because they are scared and rightfully so. And why would Rossi pour tons on signs on the East side? He is going to carry that region regardless and his turnout will be high. My friend who goes to Centrsl has seen a few signs so I would not say that there is not a single one. Where I am, there is nothing but large Dino signs at every major intersection. The only laughable nelcon is that you seem to be dillusioned into thinking this is slam dunk for Murray, but unfortunately you are going to be in for a rude awakening when reality kicks in Nov 2

It would be a lot easier to respect nelcon's opinion if he didnt keep hanging his hat on the cajun primary "victory" for Murray. Back when we had the blanket primary, Slade Gorton and Warren Magnuson had large pluralities in their primaries for reelection too, but then lost in the general. In both of those races the opposition party ran multiple candidates that split the vote.

Metro Seattle is about half the state in terms of population and it is fairly liberal as a whole, but it has large conservative areas in south and east king county and pierce and snohomish counties outside of tacoma and everett. Rossi can win this thing by doing well in southwestern and eastern washington, while keeping murray's margin down in metro seattle. It's gonna be a close one that could go either way.

sorry, guess the term is jungle primary now and not cajun.