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WA: 52% Rossi, 45% Murray (SurveyUSA 8/18-19)

Topics: poll , Washington

SurveyUSA
8/18-19/10; 618 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)

Washington

2010 Senate
52% Rossi (R), 45% Murray (D) (chart)

 

Comments
Pollz:

Last SUSA poll had Rossi plus 10. I call BS.

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Stupidest poll I've ever seen. SUSA has Rossi leading Murray in the Westside by 51% and tied in Seattle metro. That's with a sample of 600 'likely voters.' Well, just two days earlier, 1,300,000 'actual voters,' voters in WA top 2 primary, and Murray trounced Rossi by 58-28% in Seattle Metro (King County) and also won every single county on the westside of the state.

And we're supposed to believe this poll of 'likely voters?' Also, the turnout in last Tuesday's primary was about 39% statewide, and also 39% in King County showing no difference between enthusiasm among Democrats and Republicans.

Finally, a second Republican in the race, who polled 12% statewide in the primary, has refused to endorse Rossi.

SUSA should be embarrassed to publishing such a stupid result.

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CUWriter:

So nelcon, do you want to just parrot some more SSP analysis, or would you like to come up with something on your own? Just asking.

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Paleo:

I think SUSA will end up making Rasmussen look good by the end of this election cycle.

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rdw4potus:

Wow, look at those crosstabs! Tied among young people, Rossi taking 19% of the liberal vote...WTH?

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@CU: Sorry, your 'SSP' comment is obscure and has no meaning to me. Are you saying that a poll sample done with 300 voters in King County is more important than 700,000 actual voters casting their ballots?

Especially when those 700,000 voters account for 75-80% of the expected turnout in November? How can you defend that position? Remember, in WA, it wasn't really a primary in the classical sense where Democrats vote for Democrats and Republicans vote for Republicans. Everyone is on the same ballot, just like a general election and they're all running head to head against each other, with the top 2 finishers, regardless of party, facing off in November.

Try and get your facts straight and understand the situation before you throw out irrelevant comments.

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Bob in SJ:

+3 improvement for Murray over their last poll. This is laughable.

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Dave:

nelcon: Has Didier actually refused to endorse Rossi? The last I heard, he had given Dino a set of conditions that had to be met.

That's not really the same thing is it?

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Rossi has already rejected Didier's demands.

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Mogando669:

1.38mil people voted. Assuming your claim of 700K from King County is true, that's just about a bit over a half. How does that become 75-80% in the general election all of a sudden?

Instead of reading it as 46D-33R in the primary, one can also read it as an incumbent in a virtually uncontested Dem side in a lean Dem state failing to clear 50% threshold.

"Especially when those 700,000 voters account for 75-80% of the expected turnout in November?"

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tjampel:

The fundamental flaw in this polling is that SUSA has, for two straight polls now, had Rossi either ahead or tied in King Co.

Those who know Seattle understand the impossibility of this even in a big Republican wave year. It's just not going to happen. Just look at past elections and you'll see that, at best Rossi can garner low 40s in King Co.

This race is very close and bears watching but, if Murray loses (unless it's because of an unforced error) it signals a sweep for Republicans.

SUSA got this state wrong last time and it's still got it wrong this time. Better to take Ras, Elway and PPP's most recent polls, add and divide by three.

That yields a 4 point race.

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Farleftandproud:

When I noticed Fiorina got 27 percent of Black vote and nearly half of Hispanic vote, I knew Survey USA is flawed. I don't know if Rossi is leading by all men by 27 percent; it is a predominately white state, so I could believe it a bit more than I did with Barbara Boxer and fiorina.

I could technically believe that this poll might have been accurate among the pool of voters they picked, but Rasmussen is probably more experienced at trends and Demographics and I think they give some of the margin of error to the left in more Democratic states like Washington, or Mass, but Rasmussen will favor the Republican in a redder state where turnout isn't so good like Missouri or Kentucky.

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Mogando669:

That's the the flaw of reading tea leaves in crosstabs. With sample sizes of 602 in that CA poll you cited, they interviewed only like 42 blacks. You're trying to draw ANYTHING out of a poll of 42 people? Try Statistics 101 please.

Crosstabs is only for getting a sense of overall distribution, and if they're large enough (perhaps male vs. female), then you can cautiously note trends. But seriously - 42 ppl ??


"When I noticed Fiorina got 27 percent of Black vote and nearly half of Hispanic vote, I knew Survey USA is flawed. I don't know if Rossi is leading by all men by 27 percent; it is a predominately white state, so I could believe it a bit more than I did with Barbara Boxer and fiorina."

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jmartin4s:

"SUSA got this state wrong last time and it's still got it wrong this time."

First of all Tj, SUSA got this state wrong last time SUSA found Gregoire leading Rossi in their final poll 52 to 46 and she won 53 to 47, so they nailed the final margin last year in WA. GET YOUR FACTS RIGHT

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4bd151d4-3570-48a8-bcae-6eab4f5ca84c

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nick283:

There seems to be some confusion about what constitutes metro seattle. King County is the biggest part of it, but it is a lot more than that. If you notice on the crosstabs it is over 50% of the sample for the whole state. Looks like they are probably including King, Snoho, Pierce and Kitsap. Fairly standard way to count metro Seattle. While I doubt Rossi is ahead there, it is plausible that it is pretty close. Out of the two party vote in the primary for senate, Republican candidates got 50.5% and Democrats got 49.5% (although, i question if anyone who voted for goodspaceguy was serious) statewide. This gives every indication that this will be a close one.

Considering how well Rossi does with those who have a positive opinion of the tea party, I don't think Rossi needs to be that scared of losing the Didier vote.

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Farleftandproud:

The key indicator about Washington which is brighter for Murray than Toomey in PA or Fisher in Oh is Obama's approval was about 52-46 on Rasmussen or something like that. It is significantly better than some of the other tough races.

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Xenobion:

Nearly 50% gun ownership among the sample? I teared up from that one...

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tjampel:

jmartin4s:

"SUSA got this state wrong last time and it's still got it wrong this time."

"First of all Tj, SUSA got this state wrong last time SUSA found Gregoire leading Rossi in their final poll 52 to 46 and she won 53 to 47, so they nailed the final margin last year in WA. GET YOUR FACTS RIGHT"

I think you misread my comments. I was referring to their last 2010 Senate poll in which Rossi was ahead of Murray by 10% and leading in King County. The primary shows that this large a margin is impossible, unless people are stating a preference for Rossi and voting for Murray.

Here's my proof that SUSA was full of fail in their final primary poll:

These are the totals for King, Pierce and Snohomish COs, the 4 major ones in Western WA. There are still 2500 outstanding ballots to be counted from KING, BTW... the largest remaining pool of ballots yet to be counted. I will apportion these ballots at the same ratio as current King CO voting has provided (so my numbers add 1600 to Murray and 900 to Rossi for simplicity.

683 0.17 %
Patty Murray
(Prefers Democratic Party)
233,330 58.77 %

Dino Rossi
(Prefers Republican Party)
108,341 27.25 %

Clint Didier
(Prefers Republican Party)
30,374 7.70 %

Go ahead and give all Didier's votes to Rossi; he still falls far short of the mark.

Add in Snohomish CO (they're dead even adding Rossi + Didier

Add in Pierce Rossi + Didier are up 1.5% over Murray.

Murray was up by 2+ over combined Rossi and Didier in Kitsap CO as well.

So this doesn't move the needle much. Averaging them all plus or minus 500 for either)

Here's the total from those 4 counties.

389,000 to 294,500.

SUSA WAS way off the mark. They blew it. I expect them be far more accurate in their final poll; that's the money poll.

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tjampel:

I meant to say...3 major ones that constitute Seattle Tacoma Metro, not Western WA (plus I threw in Kitsap). Had I added Thurston Murray would extend her lead, as she got more than 50% of the votes there.

Murray 30,748 Rossi + Didier 24,762

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Why are people adding all Democratic votes and all Republican votes? Their is no evidence from the 2008 'top 2' primary that that actually happens.

Gregoire just edged out Rossi in the 2008 primary by 48-46, with 1,400,000 people voting. Adding up all the Dems and all the Reps gave a slight lead to the Republicans. However, when the final vote came in in November, Rossi got no additional votes (he ended with 46%), but Gregoire gained 6 percentage points to win going away.

This year, the same amount of people voted in the 'top 2' primary, just about 1,400,000. But this time, Murray slaughtered Rossi, beating him by more than 13 points, with Rossi barely crossing the 33% mark.

Why in the world would anyone think he could gain more than 17 points in the general election, with Murray only needing a handful of additional votes in King County to cross the 50% mark?

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nick283:

wow, nelcon. Amazed by your failure to miss facts. Democrats in 2008 won 51-49 in the two party race for governor. Then Rossi lost by a massive 53-47. Yes, the democrat gained two points in the two party vote thanks to the lehman collapse and obama surge, massive. All the stats you threw out earlier were wrong. They may have only been off by one or two points, but you were wrong on almost everyhing you said. Thats okay though. Keep dreaming. Man, this elections is going to be great. Female hispanic republican congresswoman elected in washington. Such a great headline. Of course, I am sure nelcon would argue heck is ahead

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